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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Past and future ocean warming

Changes in ocean heat content (OHC) provide a measure of ocean warming, with impacts on the Earth system. This Review synthesizes estimates of past and future OHC changes using observations and models. The top 2,000 m of the global ocean has significantly warmed since the 1950s, gaining 351 ± 59.8 ZJ (1 ZJ = 10 21 J) from 1958 to 2019. The rate of warming increased from <5 to ~10 ZJ yr –1 from the 1960s to the 2010s. Observed area-averaged warming is largest in the Atlantic Ocean and southern oceans at 1.42 ± 0.09 and 1.40 ± 0.09 × 109 J m –2 , respectively, for the upper 2,000 m over 1958–2019. These observed patterns of heat gains are dominated by heat redistribution. Observationally constrained projections suggest that historic ocean warming is irreversible this century, with net warming dependent on the emission scenario. By 2100, projected warming in the top 2,000 m is 2–6 times that observed so far, ranging from 1,030 [839–1,228] ZJ for a low-emission scenario to 1,874 [1,637–2,109] ZJ for a high-emission scenario. The Pacific is projected to be the largest heat reservoir owing to its size, but area-averaged warming remains strongest in the Atlantic and southern oceans. Ocean warming has extensive impacts that pose risks to marine ecosystems and society. Here, the projected changes necessitate a continuation and improvement of observations and models, along with better uncertainty estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Water Cycle: Capabilities in the TRMM Era and Challenges for GPM

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30" NE) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans, produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Robertson et al., [2001 GRL] for example, showed that substantial disagreement exists among contemporary satellite estimates of interannual variations in tropical rainfall that are associated with SST changes. Berg et al., [2002 J. Climate] have documented the distinct differences between precipitation structure over the eastern and western Pacific ITCZ and noted how various satellite precipitation algorithms may respond quite differently to ENSO modulations of these precipitation regimes. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and detail their impact on estimates of how ENSO events perturb the tropical rainfall. We will place these results in perspective by considering requirements for precipitation accuracy for global climate variability and change studies involving ENSO, monsoon dynamics and variations, and climate model improvement and validation. The discussion will conclude with an assessment of the implications of these findings for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) requirements.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Future Surface Water Availability Through an Integrated Climate‐Hydrology‐Management Modeling Framework at a Basin Scale Under CMIP6 Scenarios

Abstract Climate change and increasing water demand due to population growth pose serious threats to surface water availability. The biggest challenge in addressing these threats is the gap between climate science and water management practices. Local water planning often lacks the integration of climate change information, especially with regard to its impacts on surface water storage and evaporation as well as the associated uncertainties. Using Texas as an example, state and regional water planning relies on the use of reservoir “Firm Yield” (FY)—an important metric that quantifies surface water availability. However, this existing planning methodology does not account for the impacts of climate change on future inflows and on reservoir evaporation. To bridge this knowledge gap, an integrated climate‐hydrology‐management (CHM) modeling framework was developed, which is generally applicable to river basins with geographical, hydrological, and water right settings similar to those in Texas. The framework leverages the advantages of two modeling approaches—the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and Water Availability Modeling (WAM). Additionally, the Double Bias Correction Constructed Analogues method is utilized to downscale and incorporate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 GCMs. Finally, the DHSVM simulated naturalized streamflow and reservoir evaporation rate are input to WAM to simulate reservoir FY. A new term—“Ratio of Firm Yield” (RFY)—is created to compare how much FY changes under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that climate change has a significant impact on surface water availability by increasing reservoir evaporation, altering the seasonal pattern of naturalized streamflow, and reducing FY.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimation of General Area Dose Rates During Closure Weld Operations on the DOE Standard Canister Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference 2024

The Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Road Ready Demonstration Project is an effort to package DOE-managed SNF for road-ready dry storage. A key operation in this demonstration is performing the closure weld on the DOE Standard Canister after it has been loaded with the SNF. Planning the closure weld operations is ongoing and must consider what parts of the operations (if any) can be done manually and what parts must be done remotely. A key parameter to inform the evolving planning of these operations is the dose rate in the vicinity of the canister and the dose hazard posed to the closure weld operators and collocated workers. This study developed a Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) model of the closure weld operation, which was used to estimate general area dose rates as well as dose rates to the welding location, weld operators, and collocated workers. These estimates provide some insight into the potential radiation exposure hazard for workers during the operations and are a factor to be considered in the ongoing development of designs, technology, processes, and administrative controls for packaging DOE-managed SNF for road-ready dry storage.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Numerical Model of the Mars Electrostatic Precipitator

NASA's future human exploration missions will require chemical processing plants to convert local resources into consumables to support astronaut activities. The thin and mostly carbon dioxide atmosphere of Mars is estimated to have 1 - 10 particles/cu.cm with diameters of 1 - 10 m and up to 1000 particles/cu.cm during storms. The dust in the Martian atmosphere can foul chemical reactors and pose a risk to life support systems. Electrostatic precipitation (ESP) removes dust particles from the Martian atmosphere. The Electrostatics and Surface Physics Laboratory at NASA's Kennedy Space Center has developed a COMSOL Multiphysics(Registered Trademark) model of an ESP for dust filtration on Mars. The fundamental principles of an ESP can be simulated by four physics modules: plasma, AC/DC electromagnetics, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and particle tracing. In the ESP model presented here, the plasma module was solved to estimate particle charge. The AC/DC and CFD module were solved for the electrostatic force and fluid force. The particle-tracing module was solved for particle collection efficiency.

Wang, Jerry J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Analysis and Assessment of Peak Lightning Current Probabilities at the NASA Kennedy Space Center

This technical memorandum presents a summary by the Electromagnetics and Aerospace Environments Branch at the Marshall Space Flight Center of lightning characteristics and lightning criteria for the protection of aerospace vehicles. Probability estimates are included for certain lightning strikes (peak currents of 200, 100, and 50 kA) applicable to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Space Shuttle at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida, during rollout, on-pad, and boost/launch phases. Results of an extensive literature search to compile information on this subject are presented in order to answer key questions posed by the Space Shuttle Program Office at the Johnson Space Center concerning peak lightning current probabilities if a vehicle is hit by a lightning cloud-to-ground stroke. Vehicle-triggered lightning probability estimates for the aforementioned peak currents are still being worked. Section 4.5, however, does provide some insight on estimating these same peaks.

Johnson, D. L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Electric Vehicle Charging Load Using Origin-Destination Data

The accelerating adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) poses challenges to the power grid, necessitating precise representation of mobility patterns for effective infrastructure upgrades. Traditional simulation-based charging demand estimation faces limitations in generating trip chains reflective of actual travel patterns without complex network modeling. Hence, an innovative agent-based trip chain generation model is introduced to overcome these challenges. Drawing from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the NextGen NHTS origin-destination add-on data for Clarke County, Georgia, this study proposes a simulation method capturing both temporal and spatial mobility patterns without relying on extensive network topology data. The resulting trip chains predict EV charging load at the Census Block Group level, validated with a 1.03 correlation to actual trip counts, affirming their reflective accuracy. Two charging scenarios, residential-only and charging-everywhere, reveal distinct demand profiles. The charging-everywhere scenario aligns closely with the trip profile, while the residential-only scenario exhibits an afternoon peak slightly surpassing the former. This study contributes a data-driven charging demand estimation methodology, offering critical insights for grid resiliency planning amid the evolving landscape of EV adoption.

Pan, Melrose↗
NASA NTRS2000

Inferring Small Scale Dynamics from Aircraft Measurements of Tracers

The millions of ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft measurements of long-lived tracers in the Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UT/LS) hold enormous potential as a source of statistical information about subgrid scale dynamics. Extracting this information however can be extremely difficult because the measurements are made along a 1-D transect through fields that are highly anisotropic in all three dimensions. Some of the challenges and limitations posed by both the instrumentation and platform are illustrated within the context of the problem of using the data to obtain an estimate of the dissipation scale. This presentation will also include some tutorial remarks about the conditional and two-point statistics used in the analysis.

Sparling, L. C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Meteoroid-Induced Anomalies on Spacecraft

Many programs/projects use a simple meteoroid environment based on Grun's 1985 paper or the old NASA space station spec in their design and risk assessments. These models, which are omni directional and mono-­velocity, bear little resemblance to the actual meteoroid environment, which is sun-fixed, very directional, and which has a complex speed distribution varying by source and particle size. As a result, the simple meteoroid models lead to estimates that underestimate the spacecraft/vehicle risk by a factor of 2 or more. In addition, programs often over-emphasize the risk posed by meteor showers, which typically account for less than ten percent of the meteoroid risk over the vehicle lifetime. Fueled by popular media, the emphasis on meteor showers (the risks from which can usually be mitigated operationally) can lead to ambivalence to the real risk driver, which is the sporadic background.

Cooke, William J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Tracking system options for future altimeter satellite missions

Follow-on missions to provide continuity in the observation of the sea surface topography once the successful TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) oceanographic satellite mission has ended are discussed. Candidates include orbits which follow the ground tracks of T/P GEOSAT or ERS-1. The T/P precision ephemerides, estimated to be near 3 cm root-mean-square, demonstrate the radial orbit accuracy that can be achieved at 1300 km altitude. However, the radial orbit accuracy which can be achieved for a mission at the 800 km altitudes of GEOSAT and ERS-1 has not been established, and achieving an accuracy commensurate with T/P will pose a great challenge. This investigation focuses on the radial orbit accuracy that can be achieved for a mission in the GEOSAT orbit. Emphasis is given to characterizing the effects of force model errors on the estimated radial orbit accuracy, particularly those due to gravity and drag. The importance of global, continuous tracking of the satellite for reduction in these sources of orbit error is demonstrated with simulated GPS tracking data. A gravity tuning experiment is carried out to show how the effects of gravity error may be reduced. Assuming a GPS flight receiver with a full-sky tracking capability, the simulation results indicate that a 5 cm radial orbit accuracy for an altimeter satellite in GEOSAT orbit should be achievable during low-drag atmospheric conditions and after an acceptable tuning of the gravity model.

Davis, G. W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Some Continuum Aspects of Data Assimilation

A long-sought goal in data assimilation is to build more fully the time dimension into the data assimilation process. Truly four-dimensional data assimilation requires evolving second-moment information, namely the estimation error covariance, along with the state estimate itself. The continuum evolution equations for the estimation error covariance constitute a system of partial differential equations in six space dimensions, forced by a model error covariance and by the observations themselves. The high dimensionality of this system poses a difficult computational problem. Numerous methods have been proposed for approximate, discrete solution of this system of equations. Four-dimensional variational schemes solve these equations indirectly, while schemes based on Kalman filtering solve the equations more directly, usually on a small subspace of the full six-dimensional space. In both cases, most proposed solution methods are not derived from the continuum covariance evolution equations themselves. Instead, most methods simply inherit the discretization used for evolving the state estimate, either in the form of a discrete tangent linear model or, in the case of ensemble schemes, in the form of a fully nonlinear discrete model. In this lecture we show that solutions of the continuum covariance evolution equations possess simple properties that are not readily satisfied upon discretization of the equations. we give numerical examples illustrating that "inherited" discretizations sometimes fail to produce meaningfully accurate solutions. Finally, we suggest alternative discretization methods that may yield more faithful approximate solutions of the continuum problem.

Cohn, Stephen E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lab-Scale Cable-Driven Parallel Robot Prototype for Automated Prefabricated Component Manipulation

This paper presents the design and evaluation of a lab-scale cable-driven parallel robot (CDPR) developed as a flexible platform for automated installation of prefabricated components onto exterior building envelopes. Traditional manual installation methods for prefabricated components, which depend on scaffolding, cranes, cherry pickers, and verbal coordination, are not only labor-intensive and error-prone but also face significant limitations in dense urban environments due to site access constraints. To address these challenges, we developed a lab-scale CDPR platform capable of autonomously transporting building envelope components from a designated pickup zone to their target installation location, minimizing the need for human intervention. This study describes the system’s mechanical design, actuation architecture, real-time feedback system, and control strategy of the CDPR, and evaluates its performance in a laboratory environment. The robot’s actuation system uses torque control for end-effector manipulation. The robot’s real-time pose feedback comes from a construction-grade total station and a wireless inertial measurement unit (IMU), which together support precise end-effector control. Experimental results demonstrate the successful integration of the hardware, sensing, state estimation, and control subsystems. Preliminary tests showed that our lab-scale prototype can position the end effector with an error of less than 3 mm, which is a level of precision not previously achieved by existing CDPRs in construction applications. The key findings are twofold: (1) torque-only control is necessary but not sufficient for minimizing final pose error, and (2) incorporating real-time pose feedback can achieve the desired placement accuracy.

Liu, Yifang [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
NASA NTRS1992

Vertical wind estimation from horizontal wind measurements

This presentation begins with a brief description of the downdraft measurement problem for airborne Doppler based systems and the importance of the downdraft in assessing the hazard posed by a microburst wind shear. This is followed by a review of research on the feasibility of using simple microburst models to compute the downdraft from horizontal wind measurements. The current methodologies for computing the vertical wind are then discussed. A summary of the results and the plan for future research are also presented.

Vicroy, Dan D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Galactic non-Gaussian foregrounds on CMB lensing measurements

Weak gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) has been established as a robust and powerful observable for precision cosmology. However, the impact of Galactic foregrounds, which has been studied less extensively than many other potential systematics, could in principle pose a problem for CMB lensing measurements. These foregrounds are inherently non-Gaussian and hence might mimic the characteristic signal that lensing estimators are designed to measure. We present an analysis that quantifies the level of contamination from Galactic dust in lensing measurements, focusing particularly on measurements with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and the Simons Observatory. We employ a whole suite of foreground models and study the contamination of lensing measurements with both individual frequency channels and multifrequency combinations. We test the sensitivity of different estimators to the level of foreground non-Gaussianity and the dependence on sky fraction and multipole range used. We find that Galactic foregrounds do not present a problem for the Atacama Cosmology Telescope experiment (the bias in the inferred CMB lensing power spectrum amplitude remains below 0.3σ). For Simons Observatory, not all foreground models remain below this threshold. Although our results are conservative upper limits, they suggest that further work on characterizing dust biases and determining the impact of mitigation methods is well motivated, especially for the largest sky fractions.

cosmic microwave background↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design of Digital Twin Sensing Strategies Via Predictive Modeling and Interpretable Machine Learning

This work develops a methodology for sensor placement and dynamic sensor scheduling decisions for digital twins. The digital twin data assimilation is posed as a classification problem, and predictive models are used to train optimal classification trees that represent the map from observed data to estimated digital twin states. In addition to providing a rapid digital twin updating capability, the resulting classification trees yield an interpretable mathematical representation that can be queried to inform sensor placement and sensor scheduling decisions. The proposed approach is demonstrated for a structural digital twin of a 12 ft wingspan unmanned aerial vehicle. Offline, training data are generated by simulating scenarios using predictive reduced-order models of the vehicle in a range of structural states. Furthermore, these training data can be further augmented using experimental or other historical data. In operation, the trained classifier is applied to observational data from the physical vehicle, enabling rapid adaptation of the digital twin in response to changes in structural health. Within this context, we study the performance of the optimal tree classifiers and demonstrate how they enable explainable structural assessments from sparse sensor measurements and also inform optimal sensor placement.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mesoscale convective clustering enhances tropical precipitation

In the tropics, extreme precipitation events are often caused by mesoscale systems of organized, spatially clustered deep cumulonimbi, posing a substantial risk to life and property. While the clustering of convective clouds has been thought to strengthen precipitation rate, no quantitative estimates of this hypothesized enhancement exist. In this study, after isolating the effects of mesoscale convective clustering on precipitation, we find that strongly clustered oceanic convection precipitates more intensely than weakly clustered convection. We further show that this enhancement is primarily attributable to an increase in convective precipitation rate when the environment is less than 70% saturated, with increases in the size of the rainy stratiform region being of equal or greater importance when the environment is closer to saturation. Our results suggest that a correct representation of mesoscale organized convective systems in numerical weather and climate models is needed for accurate predictions of extreme precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electronic Waste (E-Waste) Recycling: Barriers and Opportunities for State, Local, and Tribal Governments

Electronic waste, or e-waste, encompasses end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment, including computers, monitors, televisions, printers, cell phones, household appliances with electronic components, and small consumer devices containing batteries or circuitry. E-waste is one of the fastest-growing components of the U.S. waste stream, with nearly 8 million tons generated in 2022. E-waste presents two related public-interest considerations. First, e-waste contains economically and strategically important materials: base metals (copper, aluminum, iron, steel), precious metals (gold, silver, platinum group metals), and critical materials such as rare earth elements, gallium, and indium that appear on the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) 2025 List of Critical Minerals. Second, many electronic devices contain hazardous constituents - including lead, mercury, cadmium, and brominated flame retardants - as well as rechargeable batteries that can pose fire risks during handling. Effective management of these constituents helps protect workers, communities, and the environment. In the United States, it is estimated that less than 20% of e-waste is formally collected and recycled, leaving over 6 million tons landfilled or otherwise unrecovered. This fact sheet provides state and local decision-makers an overview of (1) e-waste composition and recoverable materials, (2) technology pathways used to recover those materials, and (3) examples of operational and partnership structures used to provide e-waste recycling capacity in the United States. It is intended to complement existing collection-program guidance available through U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other sources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2012

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model1 reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties--2010 . The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables. The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗