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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
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NASA NTRS2001

Statistical Mining of Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation over the United States

Results from a new ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction model yield a remarkable (10-20%) increases in baseline prediction skills for seasonal precipitation over the US for all seasons, compared to traditional statistical predictions. While the tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, contributes to the largest share of potential predictability in the southern tier States during boreal winter, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible for enhanced predictability in the northern Great Plains, Midwest and the southwest US during boreal summer. Most importantly, ECC significantly reduces the spring predictability barrier over the conterminous US, thereby raising the skill bar for dynamical predictions.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Aeroheating Predictions for the X-43 Cowl-Closed Configuration at Mach 7 and 10

A pre-flight analysis was conducted for the Mach 7 and Mach 10 X-43 cowl-closed configurations to evaluate three-dimensional flow-field effects on localized heating in the vicinity of the closed cowl flap and sidewall. First, engineering-level analyses based on documented laminar and turbulent surface heating database were used to estimate localized heating amplification factors to account for turbulent flow effects, corner flow effects and the presence of forebody boundary layer trip devices. These estimated factors were applied to 2-D computational predictions to develop surface heat loads. Second, thin-film gauge surface heating data were obtained for a Mach 10 cowl-closed configuration in a reflected shock tunnel at simulated flight conditions. Third, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) flow-field predictions were obtained at Mach 10 ground test conditions to provide comparisons with the engineering database predictions and experimental measurements. Similarly, a CFD solution was also obtained at Mach 7 flight conditions to provide qualitative comparisons with engineering predictions. The Mach 10 CFD predictions compare favorably with the experimental measurements and the engineering estimates for surface heating amplification on the closed cowl. However, experimental measurements were not of sufficient quantity on the sidewall surface to capture the highest localized heating rates, and also the Mach 10 CFD predictions suggest higher peak heating on the sidewall compared to the engineering estimates. Also, the Mach 7 CFD predictions indicate qualitative agreement with the database estimates in terms of flow-field structure and peak heating locations on the closed-cowl flap and sidewall surfaces.

Cockrell, Charles E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ensemble Cannonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the US

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble cannonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into nonoverlapping sectors. The cannonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all regions of the US and for all seasonal compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible for enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduced the spring predictability barrier over all regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and regional regional data. Moreover, the ECC forecasts can be applied to other climate subsystems and, in conjunction with further diagnostic or model studies will enables a better understanding of the dynamic links between climate variations and precipitation, not only for the US, but also for other regions of the world.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the United States: Raising the Bar for Dynamical Model Forecasts

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into non-overlapping sectors. The canonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all the regions of the US in every season compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible to the enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduces the spring predictability barrier over all the regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and additional local observations. The enhanced ECC forecast skill provides a new benchmark for evaluating dynamical model forecasts.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Analysis of Salinity Intrusion in the San Francisco Bay-Delta using a GA- Optimized Neural Net, and Application of the Model to Prediction in the Elkhorn Slough Habitat

The San Francisco Bay Delta is a large hydrodynamic complex that incorporates the Sacramento and San Joaquin Estuaries, the Burman Marsh, and the San Francisco Bay proper. Competition exists for the use of this extensive water system both from the fisheries industry, the agricultural industry, and from the marine and estuarine animal species within the Delta. As tidal fluctuations occur, more saline water pushes upstream allowing fish to migrate beyond the Burman Marsh for breeding and habitat occupation. However, the agriculture industry does not want extensive salinity intrusion to impact water quality for human and plant consumption. The balance is regulated by pumping stations located alone the estuaries and reservoirs whereby flushing of fresh water keeps the saline intrusion at bay. The pumping schedule is driven by data collected at various locations within the Bay Delta and by numerical models that predict the salinity intrusion as part of a larger model of the system. The Interagency Ecological Program (IEP) for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary collects, monitors, and archives the data, and the Department of Water Resources provides a numerical model simulation (DSM2) from which predictions are made that drive the pumping schedule. A problem with this procedure is that the numerical simulation takes roughly 16 hours to complete a C:~ prediction. We have created a neural net, optimized with a genetic algorithm, that takes as input the archived data from multiple stations and predicts stage, salinity, and flow at the Carquinez Straits (at the downstream end of the Burman Marsh). This model seems to be robust in its predictions and operates much faster than the current numerical DSM2 model. Because the system is strongly tidal driven, we used both Principal Component Analysis and Fast Fourier Transforms to discover dominant features within the IEP data. We then filtered out the dominant tidal forcing to discover non-primary tidal effects, and used this to enhance the neural network by mapping input-output relationships in a more efficient manner. Furthermore, the neural network implicitly incorporates both the hydrodynamic and water quality models into a single predictive system. Although our model has not yet been enhanced to demonstrate improve pumping schedules, it has the possibility to support better decision-making procedures that may then be implemented by State agencies if desired. Our intention is now to use this model in the smaller Elkhorn Slough complex near Monterey Bay where no such hydrodynamic model currently exists. At the Elkhorn Slough, we are fusing the neural net model of tidally-driven flow with in situ flow data and airborne and satellite remote sensation data. These further constrain the behavior of the model in predicting the longer-term health and future of this vital estuary.

Thompson, David E.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Development of a Jet Noise Prediction Method for Installed Jet Configurations

This paper describes development of the Jet3D noise prediction method and its application to heated jets with complex three-dimensional flow fields and installation effects. Noise predictions were made for four separate flow bypass ratio five nozzle configurations tested in the NASA Langley Jet Noise Laboratory. These configurations consist of a round core and fan nozzle with and without pylon, and an eight chevron core nozzle and round fan nozzle with and without pylon. Predicted SPL data were in good agreement with experimental noise measurements up to 121 inlet angle, beyond which Jet3D under predicted low frequency levels. This is due to inherent limitations in the formulation of Lighthill's Acoustic Analogy used in Jet3D, and will be corrected in ongoing development. Jet3D did an excellent job predicting full scale EPNL for nonchevron configurations, and captured the effect of the pylon, correctly predicting a reduction in EPNL. EPNL predictions for chevron configurations were not in good agreement with measured data, likely due to the lower mixing and longer potential cores in the CFD simulations of these cases.

Hunter, Craig A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Acoustic Analogy: A Powerful Tool in Aeroacoustics with Emphasis on Jet Noise Prediction

The acoustic analogy introduced by Lighthill to study jet noise is now over 50 years old. In the present paper, Lighthill s Acoustic Analogy is revisited together with a brief evaluation of the state-of-the-art of the subject and an exploration of the possibility of further improvements in jet noise prediction from analytical methods, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) predictions, and measurement techniques. Experimental Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) data is used both to evaluate turbulent statistics from Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) CFD and to propose correlation models for the Lighthill stress tensor. The NASA Langley Jet3D code is used to study the effect of these models on jet noise prediction. From the analytical investigation, a retarded time correction is shown that improves, by approximately 8 dB, the over-prediction of aft-arc jet noise by Jet3D. In experimental investigation, the PIV data agree well with the CFD mean flow predictions, with room for improvement in Reynolds stress predictions. Initial modifications, suggested by the PIV data, to the form of the Jet3D correlation model showed no noticeable improvements in jet noise prediction.

Farassat, F.↗
NASA NTRS2004

High Speed Research Noise Prediction Code (HSRNOISE) User's and Theoretical Manual

This report describes a computer program, HSRNOISE, that predicts noise levels for a supersonic aircraft powered by mixed flow turbofan engines with rectangular mixer-ejector nozzles. It fully documents the noise prediction algorithms, provides instructions for executing the HSRNOISE code, and provides predicted noise levels for the High Speed Research (HSR) program Technology Concept (TC) aircraft. The component source noise prediction algorithms were developed jointly by Boeing, General Electric Aircraft Engines (GEAE), NASA and Pratt & Whitney during the course of the NASA HSR program. Modern Technologies Corporation developed an alternative mixer ejector jet noise prediction method under contract to GEAE that has also been incorporated into the HSRNOISE prediction code. Algorithms for determining propagation effects and calculating noise metrics were taken from the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program.

Golub, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2005

Acoustic Predictions of Manned and Unmanned Rotorcraft Using the Comprehensive Analytical Rotorcraft Model for Acoustics (CARMA) Code System

The Comprehensive Analytical Rotorcraft Model for Acoustics (CARMA) is being developed under the Quiet Aircraft Technology Project within the NASA Vehicle Systems Program. The purpose of CARMA is to provide analysis tools for the design and evaluation of efficient low-noise rotorcraft, as well as support the development of safe, low-noise flight operations. The baseline prediction system of CARMA is presented and current capabilities are illustrated for a model rotor in a wind tunnel, a rotorcraft in flight and for a notional coaxial rotor configuration; however, a complete validation of the CARMA system capabilities with respect to a variety of measured databases is beyond the scope of this work. For the model rotor illustration, predicted rotor airloads and acoustics for a BO-105 model rotor are compared to test data from HART-II. For the flight illustration, acoustic data from an MD-520N helicopter flight test, which was conducted at Eglin Air Force Base in September 2003, are compared with CARMA full vehicle flight predictions. Predicted acoustic metrics at three microphone locations are compared for limited level flight and descent conditions. Initial acoustic predictions using CARMA for a notional coaxial rotor system are made. The effect of increasing the vertical separation between the rotors on the predicted airloads and acoustic results are shown for both aerodynamically non-interacting and aerodynamically interacting rotors. The sensitivity of including the aerodynamic interaction effects of each rotor on the other, especially when the rotors are in close proximity to one another is initially examined. The predicted coaxial rotor noise is compared to that of a conventional single rotor system of equal thrust, where both are of reasonable size for an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV).

Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. Position and velocity estimates of the airplane provided to CTAS by the ATC Host radar tracker were found to be a relatively insignificant error source for the trajectory conditions evaluated. Airplane performance modeling errors within CTAS were found to not significantly affect arrival time errors when the constrained descent procedures were used. The most significant effect related to the flight guidance was observed to be the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. Lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and aircraft performance model errors.

Green, S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Airframe Noise Prediction by Acoustic Analogy: Revisited

The present work follows a recent survey of airframe noise prediction methodologies. In that survey, Lighthill s acoustic analogy was identified as the most prominent analytical basis for current approaches to airframe noise research. Within this approach, a problem is typically modeled with the Ffowcs Williams and Hawkings (FW-H) equation, for which a geometry-independent solution is obtained by means of the use of the free-space Green function (FSGF). Nonetheless, the aeroacoustic literature would suggest some interest in the use of tailored or exact Green s function (EGF) for aerodynamic noise problems involving solid boundaries, in particular, for trailing edge (TE) noise. A study of possible applications of EGF for prediction of broadband noise from turbulent flow over an airfoil surface and the TE is, therefore, the primary topic of the present work. Typically, the applications of EGF in the literature have been limited to TE noise prediction at low Mach numbers assuming that the normal derivative of the pressure vanishes on the airfoil surface. To extend the application of EGF to higher Mach numbers, the uniqueness of the solution of the wave equation when either the Dirichlet or the Neumann boundary condition (BC) is specified on a deformable surface in motion. The solution of Lighthill s equation with either the Dirichlet or the Neumann BC is given for such a surface using EGFs. These solutions involve both surface and volume integrals just like the solution of FW-H equation using FSGF. Insight drawn from this analysis is evoked to discuss the potential application of EGF to broadband noise prediction. It appears that the use of a EGF offers distinct advantages for predicting TE noise of an airfoil when the normal pressure gradient vanishes on the airfoil surface. It is argued that such an approach may also apply to an airfoil in motion. However, for the prediction of broadband noise not directly associated with a trailing edge, the use of EGF does not appear to offer any advantages over the use of FSGF at the present stage of development. It is suggested here that the applications of EGF for airframe noise analysis be continued. As an example pertinent to airframe noise prediction, the Fast Scattering Code of NASA Langley is utilized to obtain the EGF numerically on the surface of a three dimensional wing with a flap and leading edge slat in uniform rectilinear motion. The interpretation and use of these numerical Green functions are then discussed.

Farassat, F.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-Latitude Ionosphere-Basic Elements

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere is an important task of the Space Weather program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two main elements are a suitable geomagnetic activity index and coupling function -- the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity. The appropriate choice of these two elements is imperative for any reliable prediction model. The purpose of this work was to elaborate on these two elements -- the appropriate geomagnetic activity index and the coupling function -- and investigate the opportunity to improve the reliability of the prediction of geomagnetic activity and other events in the Earth's magnetosphere. The new polar magnetic index of geomagnetic activity and the new version of the coupling function lead to a significant increase in the reliability of predicting the geomagnetic activity and some key parameters, such as cross-polar cap voltage and total Joule heating in high-latitude ionosphere, which play a very important role in the development of geomagnetic and other activity in the Earth s magnetosphere, and are widely used as key input parameters in modeling magnetospheric, ionospheric, and thermospheric processes.

Lyatsky, W.↗
NASA NTRS2008

State of Jet Noise Prediction-NASA Perspective

This presentation covers work primarily done under the Airport Noise Technical Challenge portion of the Supersonics Project in the Fundamental Aeronautics Program. To provide motivation and context, the presentation starts with a brief overview of the Airport Noise Technical Challenge. It then covers the state of NASA s jet noise prediction tools in empirical, RANS-based, and time-resolved categories. The empirical tools, requires seconds to provide a prediction of noise spectral directivity with an accuracy of a few dB, but only for axisymmetric configurations. The RANS-based tools are able to discern the impact of three-dimensional features, but are currently deficient in predicting noise from heated jets and jets with high speed and require hours to produce their prediction. The time-resolved codes are capable of predicting resonances and other time-dependent phenomena, but are very immature, requiring months to deliver predictions without unknown accuracies and dependabilities. In toto, however, when one considers the progress being made it appears that aeroacoustic prediction tools are soon to approach the level of sophistication and accuracy of aerodynamic engineering tools.

Bridges, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Prediction of Launch Vehicle Ignition Overpressure and Liftoff Acoustics

The LAIOP (Launch Vehicle Ignition Overpressure and Liftoff Acoustic Environments) program predicts the external pressure environment generated during liftoff for a large variety of rocket types. These environments include ignition overpressure, produced by the rapid acceleration of exhaust gases during rocket-engine start transient, and launch acoustics, produced by turbulence in the rocket plume. The ignition overpressure predictions are time-based, and the launch acoustic predictions are frequency-based. Additionally, the software can predict ignition overpressure mitigation, using water-spray injection into the rocket exhaust stream, for a limited number of configurations. The framework developed for these predictions is extensive, though some options require additional relevant data and development time. Once these options are enabled, the already extensively capable code will be further enhanced. The rockets, or launch vehicles, can either be elliptically or cylindrically shaped, and up to eight strap-on structures (boosters or tanks) are allowed. Up to four engines are allowed for the core launch vehicle, which can be of two different types. Also, two different sizes of strap-on structures can be used, and two different types of booster engines are allowed. Both tabular and graphical presentations of the predicted environments at the selected locations can be reviewed by the user. The output includes summaries of rocket-engine operation, ignition overpressure time histories, and one-third octave sound pressure spectra of the predicted launch acoustics. Also, documentation is available to the user to help him or her understand the various aspects of the graphical user interface and the required input parameters.

Casiano, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2007

PREDICTS

PREDICTS is a computer program that predicts the frequencies, as functions of time, of signals to be received by a radio science receiver in this case, a special-purpose digital receiver dedicated to analysis of signals received by an antenna in NASA s Deep Space Network (DSN). Unlike other software used in the DSN, PREDICTS does not use interpolation early in the calculations; as a consequence, PREDICTS is more precise and more stable. The precision afforded by the other DSN software is sufficient for telemetry; the greater precision afforded by PREDICTS is needed for radio-science experiments. In addition to frequencies as a function of time, PREDICTS yields the rates of change and interpolation coefficients for the frequencies and the beginning and ending times of reception, transmission, and occultation. PREDICTS is applicable to S-, X-, and Ka-band signals and can accommodate the following link configurations: (1) one-way (spacecraft to ground), (2) two-way (from a ground station to a spacecraft to the same ground station), and (3) three-way (from a ground transmitting station to a spacecraft to a different ground receiving station).

Zhou, Hanying↗
NASA NTRS2010

ATK Launch Vehicle (ALV-X1) Liftoff Acoustic Environments: Prediction vs. Measurement

Launched from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) Pad 01B on August 22, 2008, the ATK Launch Vehicle (ALV-X1) provided an opportunity to measure liftoff acoustic noise data. Predicted lift-off acoustic environments were developed by both NASA MSFC and ATK engineers. ATK engineers developed predictions for use in determining vibro-acoustic loads using the method described in the monograph NASA SP-8072. The MSFC ALV-X1 lift-off acoustic prediction was made with the Vehicle Acoustic Environment Prediction Program (VAEPP). The VAEPP and SP-8072 methods predict acoustic pressures of rocket systems generally scaled to existing rocket motor data based upon designed motor or engine characteristics. The predicted acoustic pressures are sound-pressure spectra at specific positions on the vehicle. This paper presents the measured liftoff acoustics on the vehicle and tower. This data is useful for the ALV-X1 in validating the pre-launch environments and loads predictions.

Houston, J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

On Acoustic Source Specification for Rotor-Stator Interaction Noise Prediction

This paper describes the use of measured source data to assess the effects of acoustic source specification on rotor-stator interaction noise predictions. Specifically, the acoustic propagation and radiation portions of a recently developed coupled computational approach are used to predict tonal rotor-stator interaction noise from a benchmark configuration. In addition to the use of full measured data, randomization of source mode relative phases is also considered for specification of the acoustic source within the computational approach. Comparisons with sideline noise measurements are performed to investigate the effects of various source descriptions on both inlet and exhaust predictions. The inclusion of additional modal source content is shown to have a much greater influence on the inlet results. Reasonable agreement between predicted and measured levels is achieved for the inlet, as well as the exhaust when shear layer effects are taken into account. For the number of trials considered, phase randomized predictions follow statistical distributions similar to those found in previous statistical source investigations. The shape of the predicted directivity pattern relative to measurements also improved with phase randomization, having predicted levels generally within one standard deviation of the measured levels.

Nark, Douglas M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Pointing-Vector and Velocity Based Frequency Predicts for Deep-Space Uplink Array Applications

Uplink array technology is currently being developed for NASA's Deep Space Network (DSN) to provide greater range and data throughput for future NASA missions, including manned missions to Mars and exploratory missions to the outer planets, the Kuiper belt, and beyond. Here we describe a novel technique for generating the frequency predicts that are used to compensate for relative Doppler, derived from interpolated earth position and spacecraft ephemerides. The method described here guarantees velocity and range estimates that are consistent with each other, hence one can always be recovered from the other. Experimental results have recently proven that these frequency predicts are accurate enough to maintain the phase of a three element array at the EPOXI spacecraft for three hours. Previous methods derive frequency predicts directly from interpolated relative velocities. However, these velocities were found to be inconsistent with the corresponding spacecraft range, meaning that range could not always be recovered accurately from the velocity predicts, and vice versa. Nevertheless, velocity-based predicts are also capable of maintaining uplink array phase calibration for extended periods, as demonstrated with the EPOXI spacecraft, however with these predicts important range and phase information may be lost. A comparison of the steering-vector method with velocity-based techniques for generating precise frequency predicts specifically for uplink array applications is provided in the following sections.

uplink arraying↗