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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction challenge: First principles simulation of the ultrafast electron diffraction spectrum of cyclobutanone

Computer simulation has long been an essential partner of ultrafast experiments, allowing the assignment of microscopic mechanistic detail to low-dimensional spectroscopic data. However, the ability of theory to make a priori predictions of ultrafast experimental results is relatively untested. Herein, as a part of a community challenge, we attempt to predict the signal of an upcoming ultrafast photochemical experiment using state-of-the-art theory in the context of preexisting experimental data. Specifically, we employ ab initio Ehrenfest with collapse to a block mixed quantum–classical simulations to describe the real-time evolution of the electrons and nuclei of cyclobutanone following excitation to the 3s Rydberg state. The gas-phase ultrafast electron diffraction (GUED) signal is simulated for direct comparison to an upcoming experiment at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Laboratory. Following initial ring-opening, dissociation via two distinct channels is observed: the C3 dissociation channel, producing cyclopropane and CO, and the C2 channel, producing CH2CO and C2H4. Direct calculations of the GUED signal indicate how the ring-opened intermediate, the C2 products, and the C3 products can be discriminated in the GUED signal. We also report an a priori analysis of anticipated errors in our predictions: without knowledge of the experimental result, which features of the spectrum do we feel confident we have predicted correctly, and which might we have wrong?

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward an improved nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium model for more predictive simulations of ignition scale hohlraums

Recently, nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) modeling has been identified as the primary reason for discrepant predictions of the peak neutron production time in indirectly driven inertial confinement fusion (ICF) platforms. It has also been observed that predictions of collisional excitation rates differ by as much as 50% from measurements. Theoretical uncertainties in dielectronic recombination rates have also been posited as possibly contributing to errors in NLTE predictions. This work examines the impact of multipliers on collisional excitation and dielectronic recombination rates on simulations of a directly driven gold sphere and an indirect drive ICF implosion. It is found that multipliers on the collisional excitation rates have a strong impact on radiant intensity and electron temperature and a weaker impact on ionization state, whereas multipliers on dielectronic recombinations rates strongly impact ionization state with a smaller impact on radiant intensity and electron temperature. A self-consistent NLTE model which places multipliers on differing transitions, as motivated by experimental measurements and more detailed atomic physics predictions, improves agreement but does not completely eliminate discrepancies with measurements of the radiant intensity within the 2–4 keV spectral range.

Farmer, W. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2026

Full-stack Quantification of Variability in Predicting Ion Transport Properties using Machine-learned Interatomic Potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become the state-of-the-art for performing accurate, scalable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. It is therefore crucial to understand and quantify the reliability of MLIPs for downstream property predictions. Uncertainty in predicted properties can arise from limitations in first-principles training data, intrinsic MLIP model errors in representing the data, and the statistical noise introduced during subsequent MD simulations. Using ion transport in Li7P3S11 as a case study, we systematically assess the impact of training set size and selection, neural network stochasticity, and MD sampling statistics on predicted diffusivity and activation energy. We find that when using equivariant MLIP architectures with standard MD protocols, uncertainty arising from MD sampling dominates over model-induced errors. In contrast, MLIP errors relative to the underlying first-principles data are consistently minor. Given this, there are two main routes to improving the accuracy of predictions based on MLIP potentials: adopting higher accuracy reference data generation methods, and improving the MD sampling statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved deep learning prediction of antigen–antibody interactions

Identifying antibodies that neutralize specific antigens is crucial for developing effective immunotherapies, but this task remains challenging for many target antigens. The rise of deep learning–based computational approaches presents a promising avenue to address this challenge. Here, we assess the performance of a deep learning approach through two benchmark tests aimed at predicting antibodies for the receptor-binding domain of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein. Three different strategies for constructing input sequence alignments are employed for predicting structural models of antigen–antibody complexes. In our initial testing set, which comprises known experimental structures, these strategies collectively yield a significant top-ranked prediction for 61% of cases and a success rate of 47%. Notably, one strategy that utilizes the sequences of known antigen binders outperforms the other two, achieving a precision of 90% in a subsequent test set of ~1,000 antibodies, balanced between true and control antibodies for the antigen, albeit with a lower recall of 25%. Our results underscore the potential of integrating deep learning methods with single B cell sequencing techniques to enhance the prediction accuracy of antigen–antibody interactions.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing time-dependent temperature profile predictions using reduced transport models for high performing NSTX plasmas

Time-dependent, predictive simulations were performed with the 1.5D tokamak integrated modeling code TRANSP on a large set of well-analyzed, high performing discharges from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) in order to evaluate how well modern reduced transport models can reproduce experimentally observed temperature profiles in spherical tokamaks. Overall, it is found that simulations using the Multi-Mode Model (MMM) more consistently agree with the NSTX observations than those using the Trapped Gyro-Landau Fluid (TGLF) model, despite TGLF requiring orders of magnitude greater computational cost. When considering all examined discharges, MMM has median overpredictions of electron temperature (T e ) and ion temperature (T i ) profiles of 28% and 27%, respectively, relative to the experiment. TGLF overpredicts T e by 46%, with much larger variance than MMM, and underpredicts T i by 25%. As the ratio of kinetic to magnetic field pressure (β) is increased across NSTX discharges, TGLF predicts lower T e and significant flattening of the T i profile, conflicting with NSTX observations. When using an electrostatic version of TGLF, both T e and T i are substantially overpredicted, underscoring the importance of electromagnetic turbulence in the high β spherical tokamak regime. Additionally, calculations with neural net surrogate models for TGLF were performed outside of TRANSP with a time slice flux matching transport solver, finding better agreement with experiment than the TRANSP simulations, highlighting the impact of different transport solvers and simulation techniques. Furthermore, the reasonable agreement with experiment of temperature profiles predicted by MMM motivates a more detailed examination of the sensitivities of the TRANSP simulations with MMM to different NSTX plasma regimes in a companion paper (Lestz et al Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 105030), in preparation for self-consistent, time-dependent predictive modeling of NSTX-U scenarios.

Lestz, J. B. [General Atomics, San Diego, CA (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2024

Density pedestal prediction model for tokamak plasmas

Abstract A model for the pedestal density prediction based on neutral penetration combined with pedestal transport is presented. The model is tested against a pedestal database of JET-ILW Type I ELMy H-modes showing good agreement over a wide range of parameters both in standalone modelling (using the experimental temperature profile) and in full Europed modelling that predicts both density and temperature pedestals simultaneously. The model is further tested for ASDEX Upgrade and MAST-U Type I ELMy H-modes and both are found to agree with the same model parameters as for JET-ILW. The JET-ILW experiment where the isotope of the main ion is varied in a D/T scan at constant gas rate and constant β N is successfully modelled as long as the separatrix density ( n e,sep ) and pedestal transport coefficient ratio ( D / χ ) are varied in accordance with the experimentally observed variation of n e,sep and the isotope dependence of D / χ found in gyrokinetic simulations. The predictions are found to be sensitive to n e,sep which is why the model is combined with an n e,sep model to predict the pedestal for the STEP fusion reactor.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive turbulence-driven flux model of scrape-off layer widths across confinement regimes in tokamaks

Reliable scrape-off layer (SOL) profile decay lengths predictions are needed to design and operate future tokamaks. The present manuscript describes a new model based on turbulent transport that is able to predict SOL widths for both L-mode and H-mode plasmas. The model is based upon the sheared-spectral filament paradigm (Peret et al (WEST Team) 2022 Phys. Plasmas 29 072306), however, incorporating the effects of thermal transport in order to calculate the parallel heat fluxes. The effects of magnetic shear and ExB shear on the cross-field transport are crucial to explain the shorter SOL decay lengths found in H-mode. The model is validated against a database of thousands of DIII-D L-mode and H-mode SOL profiles. We also calculate SOL decay length predictions in terms of plasma and engineer control parameters, which are in agreement with the multi-machine empirical H-mode scaling (Eich et al (ASDEX Upgrade Team and JET EFDA Contributors) 2013 Nucl. Fusion 53 093031), however, with an additional device geometry dependence. ITER SOL width predictions by the model are 3 times higher than the empirical scaling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Autoregressive long-horizon prediction of plasma edge dynamics *

Accurate modeling of scrape-off layer (SOL) and divertor-edge dynamics is vital for designing plasma-facing components in fusion devices. High-fidelity edge fluid/neutral codes such as SOLPS-ITER capture SOL physics with high accuracy, but their computational cost limits broad parameter scans and long transient studies. We present transformer-based, autoregressive surrogates for efficient prediction of 2D, time-dependent plasma edge state fields. Trained on SOLPS-ITER spatiotemporal data for the KSTAR tokamak, the surrogates forecast electron temperature, electron density, and radiated power over extended horizons. We evaluate model variants trained with increasing autoregressive horizons (1–100 steps) on short- and long-horizon prediction tasks. Longer-horizon training systematically improves rollout stability and mitigates error accumulation, enabling stable predictions over hundreds to thousands of steps and reproducing key dynamical features such as the motion of high-radiation regions. Measured end-to-end wall-clock times show the surrogate is orders of magnitude faster than SOLPS-ITER, enabling rapid parameter exploration. Prediction accuracy degrades when the surrogate enters physical regimes not represented in the training dataset, motivating future work on data enrichment and physics-informed constraints. Overall, this approach provides a fast, accurate surrogate for computationally intensive plasma edge simulations, supporting rapid scenario exploration, control-oriented studies, and progress toward real-time applications in fusion devices.

autoregressive deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep probabilistic direction prediction in 3D with applications to directional dark matter detectors

Abstract We present the first method to probabilistically predict 3D direction in a deep neural network model. The probabilistic predictions are modeled as a heteroscedastic von Mises-Fisher distribution on the sphere S 2 , giving a simple way to quantify aleatoric uncertainty. This approach generalizes the cosine distance loss which is a special case of our loss function when the uncertainty is assumed to be uniform across samples. We develop approximations required to make the likelihood function and gradient calculations stable. The method is applied to the task of predicting the 3D directions of electrons, the most complex signal in a class of experimental particle physics detectors designed to demonstrate the particle nature of dark matter and study solar neutrinos. Using simulated Monte Carlo data, the initial direction of recoiling electrons is inferred from their tortuous trajectories, as captured by the 3D detectors. For 40 keV electrons in a 70% He 30% CO 2 gas mixture at STP, the new approach achieves a mean cosine distance of 0.104 (26 ∘ ) compared to 0.556 (64 ∘ ) achieved by a non-machine learning algorithm. We show that the model is well-calibrated and accuracy can be increased further by removing samples with high predicted uncertainty. This advancement in probabilistic 3D directional learning could increase the sensitivity of directional dark matter detectors.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning materials properties with accurate predictions, uncertainty estimates, domain guidance, and persistent online accessibility

One compelling vision of the future of materials discovery and design involves the use of machine learning (ML) models to predict materials properties and then rapidly find materials tailored for specific applications. However, realizing this vision requires both providing detailed uncertainty quantification (model prediction errors and domain of applicability) and making models readily usable. At present, it is common practice in the community to assess ML model performance only in terms of prediction accuracy (e.g. mean absolute error), while neglecting detailed uncertainty quantification and robust model accessibility and usability. Here, we demonstrate a practical method for realizing both uncertainty and accessibility features with a large set of models. We develop random forest ML models for 33 materials properties spanning an array of data sources (computational and experimental) and property types (electrical, mechanical, thermodynamic, etc). All models have calibrated ensemble error bars to quantify prediction uncertainty and domain of applicability guidance enabled by kernel-density-estimate-based feature distance measures. All data and models are publicly hosted on the Garden-AI infrastructure, which provides an easy-to-use, persistent interface for model dissemination that permits models to be invoked with only a few lines of Python code. We demonstrate the power of this approach by using our models to conduct a fully ML-based materials discovery exercise to search for new stable, highly active perovskite oxide catalyst materials.

domain of applicability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum chemically calculated Abraham parameters for quantifying and predicting polymer hydrophobicity

The leakage and accumulation of plastic in the environment is a significant and growing problem with numerous detrimental impacts and has led to a push toward the design and development of more environmentally benign materials. To this end, we have developed a quantum chemistry-based model for predicting the mobility of polymer materials from molecular structure. Hydrophobicity is used as a surrogate for mobility given that hydrophobic interactions drive much of the partitioning of contaminants in and out of various environmentally relevant compartments. To model polymer hydrophobicity, we adjusted a previously developed Quantum Chemically Calculated Abraham Parameter model to calculate Abraham parameters of small molecules from molecular structure information. The resulting model predicted the octanol-water partition coefficient (K OW ) of polymer repeating units with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.48 (log scale). Additionally, the hydrophobicity of high molecular weight polymer materials was captured through solubility parameters and Nile red staining experiments from the literature and predicted with RMSEs of 1.21 (J/cc) 0.5 and 3.42 nm, respectively. Finally, to test the environmental applicability of the model, the relative adsorption capacity of three polymers was predicted and used to unify sorption isotherms across multiple sorbates and polymer sorbents.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Axion Mass Prediction from Adaptive Mesh Refinement Cosmological Lattice Simulations

The quantum chromodynamics (QCD) axion arises as the pseudo-Goldstone mode of a spontaneously broken Abelian Peccei-Quinn (PQ) symmetry. If the scale of PQ symmetry breaking occurs below the inflationary reheat temperature and the domain wall number is unity, then there is a unique axion mass that gives the observed dark matter (DM) abundance. Computing this mass has been the subject of intensive numerical simulations for decades since the mass prediction informs laboratory experiments. Axion strings develop below the PQ symmetry-breaking temperature, and as the string network evolves, it emits axions that go on to become the DM. A key ingredient in the axion mass prediction is the spectral index of axion radiation emitted by the axion strings. We compute this index in this Letter using the most precise and accurate large-scale simulations to date of the axion-string network leveraging adaptive mesh refinement to achieve the precision that would, otherwise, require a static lattice with 262,144 3 lattice sites. We find a scale-invariant axion radiation spectrum to within 1% precision and find no evidence that the spectral index of radiation evolves with time. Accounting for axion production from strings prior to the QCD phase transition leads us to predict that the axion mass should be approximately 𝑚 𝑎 ∈ (45, 65) μ ⁢eV. However, we provide preliminary evidence that axions are produced in greater quantities from the string-domain-wall network collapse during the QCD phase transition, potentially increasing the mass prediction to as much as 300 μ ⁢eV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust ab initio predictions for dimensionless ratios of 𝐸⁢2 and radius observables. I. Electric quadrupole moments and deformation

We report that converged results for 𝐸⁢2 observables are notoriously challenging to obtain in ab initio no-core configuration interaction approaches. Matrix elements of the 𝐸⁢2 operator are sensitive to the large-distance tails of the nuclear wave function, which converge slowly in an oscillator basis expansion. Similar convergence challenges beset ab initio prediction of the nuclear charge radius. However, we exploit systematic correlations between the calculated 𝐸⁢2 and radius observables to yield meaningful predictions for relations among these observables. In particular, we examine ab initio predictions for dimensionless ratios of the form 𝑄/𝑟 2 for nuclei throughout the 𝑝 shell. Meaningful predictions for electric quadrupole moments may then be made by calibrating to the ground-state charge radius, if experimentally known, or vice versa. Moreover, these dimensionless ratios provide ab initio insight into the nuclear quadrupole deformation.

ab initio calculations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust ab initio predictions for dimensionless ratios of 𝐸⁢2 and radius observables. II. Estimation of 𝐸⁢2 transition strengths by calibration to the charge radius

Converged results for 𝐸⁢2 observables are notoriously challenging to obtain in ab initio no-core configuration interaction approaches. Matrix elements of the 𝐸⁢2 operator are sensitive to the large-distance tails of the nuclear wave function, which converge slowly in an oscillator basis expansion. Similar convergence challenges beset ab initio prediction of the nuclear charge radius. However, we exploit systematic correlations between the calculated 𝐸⁢2 and radius observables to yield meaningful predictions for relations among these observables. In particular, we examine ab initio predictions for dimensionless ratios of the form 𝐵⁡(𝐸⁢2)/(𝑒 2 ⁢𝑟 4 ) for nuclei throughout the 𝑝 shell. Finally, meaningful predictions for 𝐸⁢2 transition strengths may then be made by calibrating to the ground-state charge radius if experimentally known.

ab initio calculations↗
DOE OSTI2024

Random forest prediction of crystal structure from electron diffraction patterns incorporating multiple scattering

Diffraction is the most common method to solve for unknown or partially known crystal structures. However, it remains a challenge to determine the crystal structure of a new material that may have nanoscale size or heterogeneities. Here, in this study, we train an architecture of hierarchical random forest models capable of predicting the crystal system, space group, and lattice parameters from one or more unknown two-dimensional electron diffraction patterns. Our initial model correctly identifies the crystal system of a simulated electron diffraction pattern from a 20-nm-thick specimen of arbitrary orientation 67% of the time. We achieve a topline accuracy of 79% when aggregating predictions from ten patterns of the same material but different zone axes. The space group and lattice predictions range from 70% to 90% accuracy and median errors of 0.01-0.5Å, respectively, for cubic, hexagonal, trigonal, and tetragonal crystal systems while being less reliable on orthorhombic and monoclinic systems. We apply this architecture to a four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy scan of gold nanoparticles, where it accurately predicts the crystal structure and lattice constants. These random forest models can be used to significantly accelerate the analysis of electron diffraction patterns, particularly in the case of unknown crystal structures. Additionally, due to the speed of inference, these models could be integrated into live transmission electron microscopy experiments, allowing real-Time labeling of a specimen.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extended State Observer-Based Robust Model Predictive Velocity Control for Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor

This article proposes an extended state observer based robust model predictive velocity control to decrease system prediction error under parameter uncertainties for permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM). We develop a new PMSM model that consists of velocity and acceleration to lump the system information and an external disturbance into a disturbance. The extended state observer (ESO) is designed to estimate the velocity, acceleration, and disturbance. By estimating the state variables and disturbance using the ESO, the model predictive control (MPC) finds the optimal control input by predicting future system behavior. Additionally, the direct current controller is designed so that the direct current converges to zero. Because the proposed method is not designed based on the cascade structure from the viewpoint of velocity control, the optimization control for the velocity and currents can be defined. Thus, the proposed method is robust against external disturbances and parameter uncertainties owing to feedback linearization, state feedback, and ESO-based MPC using the acceleration PMSM model. The proposed control algorithm was experimentally verified and it showed improved velocity tracking performance compared with ESO-based MPC using the conventional PMSM model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

CORSAIR: A Framework for Human Mobility Prediction through Visit Characterization and Spatial Behavior Modeling

The rapid advancement of location acquisition technologies has led to the daily collection of vast amounts of mobile trajectory data, facilitating in-depth research on human mobility and enabling more accurate mobility prediction models. However, existing methodologies often fall short in capturing the intricate dynamics of human navigation and spatial behavior. This paper addresses this gap by exploring the multifaceted relationships between individuals and their environments, considering the diverse influences of personal preferences and experiences. Some places hold sentimental value and are visited frequently, while others serve as transient points of passage. To model these differences, we introduce CORSAIR, a novel visit characterization framework that leverages visitation patterns and dwell times to delineate an individual’s relationship with specific places. CORSAIR classifies visits into seven distinct types: casual, occasional, routine, special, anchor, important, and resettling. Also, we show that explicitly recognizing these distinct visit types and incorporating nuanced visit intents into mobility prediction models leads to a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy. This distinction allows for more precise modeling of the individual’s transitions, enhancing the personalization and relevance of location-based services. Our findings suggest that a deeper understanding of the complexities of individual-environment interactions is crucial for developing effective predictive tools in mobility research.

Amichi, Licia [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000177631394)↗