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At least 253 records · Page 14

Operating Strategies for Dispatchable PEM Electrolyzers that Enable Low-Cost Hydrogen Production

Hydrogen is a pathway to enabling decarbonization across multiple economic sectors that cannot be directly decarbonized with electricity including heat for industrial operations, medium- and heavy-duty transportation applications, long-duration energy storage, and as a feedstock for chemical synthesis. Producing hydrogen at low costs and carbon footprint is likely essential to economically decarbonize these otherwise "hard to decarbonize" sectors. Low-temperature polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolysis produces hydrogen from water and electricity and is a rapidly developing pathway towards making hydrogen at the scales required for decarbonization applications. The levelized cost of electrolytic hydrogen is dependent on the capital cost, efficiency, and durability of the electrolyzer system as well as the price of electricity supplied to the electrolyzer and the annual utilization of the electrolyzer (capacity factor). Electricity price and capacity factor depend on the source of energy that the system uses and impact other economic factors. Electricity price and capacity factor and the connections between other aspects of hydrogen production via PEM electrolyzers are the focus of this work. PEM electrolyzers have conventionally been operated at high capacity factors using electricity purchased from utilities with a constant price throughout the year. To achieve lower effective electricity prices, recent work has investigated opportunities for electrolyzers to purchase electricity in wholesale markets, where the cost of electricity varies hourly. This option can lead to lower electricity costs when the electrolyzer is a controllable load that ramps up and down rapidly and turns on and off frequently. This configuration and operating strategy capitalizes on times of low wholesale electricity prices and results in lower hydrogen levelized costs than constant operation due to reduced electricity costs even though the reduced capacity factor increases the cost of recovering the capital investment. Cycling on and off frequently also has implications for electrolyzer durability. An electrolyzer configuration where it is directly connected to renewable generation such as wind or solar, only running when the generator is producing energy, has similar implications on operating strategy, hydrogen levelized cost, capacity factor, and durability. This work provides insight into the relationships between dispatchable electrolyzer operating strategies and the cost of producing hydrogen from these systems, outlining strategies and opportunities to minimize production costs while minimizing operations that are likely to negatively impact system durability and efficiency. We find strategies that minimize electrolyzer cycling and the resulting durability impacts while increasing the hydrogen levelized cost only slightly above the minimum. We also find opportunities for batteries to minimize the number of cycles in systems directly connected to renewable generation. These findings outline key opportunities for future electrolyzer deployments and the synergistic benefits between electrolyzers and increased deployment of renewable energy generation like wind and solar. They also inform research and development that is reducing electrolyzer capital cost while managing durability impacts.

electricity markets↗

Ecosystem service benefits to water users from perennial biomass production

We report although many agree that a transition to renewable energy sources is needed to avoid the climate consequences of continued reliance on fossil sources, price is a barrier. For renewable energy sources, including bioenergy, penetrating energy markets depends on lowering prices to compete with the price of fossil sources, but the tools used in decision making, such as supply curves, exclude non-market benefits from ecosystem services. Here, we extend the economic concept of an economic supply curve to account for ecosystem services co-produced with perennial biomass. We developed three new types of supply curves to visualize the increased supply of biomass (‘sustainable supply’) with sufficient water-quality benefits to offset biomass production costs. Using these tools, we show that the value of water-quality improvements could significantly reduce the break-even price of perennial feedstocks if it were available to farmers. In the most optimistic case, nearly half of potential biomass supply in a large tributary of the Mississippi river basin carried water purification value exceeding the cost of biomass production. Furthermore, adding the value to swimmers and waders offset production cost for over 90% of potential supply. Simulated benefits were context specific. For example, total value for water drinkers peaked at an intermediate level of fertilizer application. Geographically, benefits were highest in the eastern portion of the river basin. This research shows where the sustainable supply is needed and can generate value; the next step is to match this supply with credit buyers. Efforts to internalize the values of ecosystem services into biomass prices could help to meet Biden administration targets to meet 100% of sustainable aviation fuels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Insights into Methodologies and Stochastic Optimization of Thermal Energy Storage-Coupled Advanced Reactor Systems: A Comparison of Methods for Accessing Long-Term Sub-System Sizing Adequacy

This paper investigates the potential of coupling Thermal Energy Storage (TES) with Advanced Reactors (ARs) to address uncertainties posed by climate change in deep decarbonized power systems. The TES Use-case Team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has examined the potential of storing thermal energy from ARs during low demand periods and optimizing discharge during peak-priced hours, in both steady-state and transient conditions. Building on this groundwork, this study bridges the gaps in optimal sizing of the sub-system of TES-coupled AR systems using Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), INL?s framework for grid optimization. By applying this framework, we present statistically-robust optimal charge, discharge including balance of plant (BOP), and storage sizing for the High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) with 203 MWth output. To this end, we generated synthetic price samples for 30 years using 2018 ? 2021 real-time market data from ERCOT, PJM and MISO. Our results reveals that the TES-coupled HTGR system is highly effective in maximizing revenue from electricity sales. We observed a substantial increase of 40 % in ERCOT and a noteworthy 15 % increase in PJM and MISO when compared to the conventional BOP without TES. This improvement is achieved through regionally-tailored sub-system sizing, which ranges from 398 to 416 MWth for the discharge system and 610 to 1029 MWth for the TES. We find that the average electricity price directly impacts the overall economics, while price volatility influences storage size. Additional sensitivity analyses were performed to access the impact of key assumptions on system economics and sizing, differentiating the optimization window (i.e., 24 ? 219 hours of chronological observations) and by imposing storage continuity condition in tracking TES cycles. We observed that at the 120-hour of the optimization window, a reasonable balance between computation time and accuracy was achieved. Our analysis also highlights the significance of conducting multi-day cycle analysis (> 120-hour) for TES to capture interaction between electricity prices and storage dynamics, providing a comprehensive understanding of TES behavior that AR developers should integrate into their plant designs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

How Well Do U.S. Western Water Markets Convey Economic Information?

An efficient market implies that potential gains from trade are fully captured. Achieving this requires a well-functioning market where prices reflect all available information. In the case of water rights markets, this implies that the permanent water rights transfer price reflects the sum of discounted returns to this asset (i.e., the lease price), the market interest rate, and a risk premium that reflects potential future water scarcity. Here, the purpose of this study is to assess the efficiency of western U.S. water markets by using the asset pricing model to measure how well prices reflect long-run returns to permanent water rights.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Supply analysis of preferential market incentive for energy crops

This analysis explores the valuation of feedstock quality attributes of switchgrass and miscanthus – two energy crops poised for future expansion – and compares the relative economic availability of these two crops under two scenarios: (i) uniform price assumptions (i.e., no incentive for quality), and (ii) a scenario of a price premium based on convertibility (i.e., an incentive for quality). Given data on cellulose content, hemicellulose content, and their relative convertibility, miscanthus is expected to be 11% more efficient at conversion to biofuels than switchgrass under the biochemical conversion route. Based on this scenario of improved conversion efficiency and associated profit, we simulate an 11% price premium for miscanthus over other feedstocks in a base-case scenario. By adding this price premium, supplies of miscanthus increase over the base case by about 4 million (44%), 94 million (64%), and 166 million (94%) tons in year 0, 10, and 20 after simulated contracts for production are initiated respectively. These results emphasize that custom simulations are needed to quantify feedstock availability if supplies are intended to reflect grower response to industry demands for feedstock quality specifications. Farmers can grow ‘peas or carrots’, and price signals from biorefineries will influence what energy crops they produce. Recognizing that the energy crop mix is tractable according to quality characteristics is relevant both for near-term and long-term biofuels research and development. Here, we recommend accounting for market preferences for quality attributes when estimating potential future supplies of energy crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

How profitable is switchgrass in Illinois, USA? An economic definition of marginal land

Decisions regarding the conversion of land from an existing crop to bioenergy crops are critical for the sustainable production of both food and fuels. This study seeks to establish criteria for delineating land as “economically marginal”, and thus suited for growing switchgrass. In this case study of an Illinois agricultural field, the profitability of switchgrass, with farmgate prices of $\$44$ Mg –1 , $\$66$ Mg –1 , or $\$88$ Mg –1 , was compared to corn and soybean crop prices. Further, the study also evaluates the profitability of switchgrass when replacing corn-based yield estimates from the Soil Productivity Index (SPI) of Illinois. Based on a dry-matter yield of 10.45 Mg ha –1 , switchgrass can compete with soybeans only at the high price of $\$88$ Mg –1 , but depending on location, can compete with corn at $\$66$ Mg –1 . Across Illinois, at $\$88$ ha –1 , all Illinois land with SPI < 100% and 95% of land under SPI class C (SPI 100–116) is profitable under switchgrass. Switchgrass may not be profitable relative to corn grown in the SPI class A (SPI > 133) and only 7% of class B (SPI 117–132). Our results show that land with drainage and erosion limitations is economically marginal when corn and soybean yields are low, and the farmgate price for switchgrass is greater than $\$66$ Mg –1 . However, this may not be possible on land where switchgrass is replacing frequent soybean rotations (corn–soybean ratio ≤ 1). Land used to produce only soybeans may only be marginal at the farmgate price of $\$88$ Mg –1 . Further studies need to be conducted to identify how much land can be converted to switchgrass without harming corn production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Retracted Article: Distributed energy management for networked microgrids in a three-phase unbalanced distribution network

Owing to increased penetration of three-phase and single-phase microgrids, distributed energy resources (DERs), and responsive loads, the maintenance of a three-phase balance by distribution networks is a significant challenge. Existing literature on distributed energy management for networked microgrids generally neglects the distribution network or employs a simplified phase balanced distribution network; thus, these evaluations are not applicable. Further, the underlying mutual coupling between the different phases of distribution feeders results in a more challenging situation. Here, to solve this issue, this study sought to propose distributed energy management based on a three-phase unbalanced distribution network. Various three-phase or single-phase microgrids, utility-owned DERs, and responsive loads were coordinated through iteratively adjusted price signals. Based on the price signals received, the microgrid controllers (MCs) and distribution management system (DMS) updated the schedules of the DERs and responsive loads under their jurisdiction separately. The price signals were then updated according to the generation-load mismatch at each node and distributed to the corresponding MCs and DMS for the next iteration. The iteration continued until a sufficiently small generation-load mismatch was achieved at all nodes, that is, a balanced generation and load at all nodes under the agreed price signals. Considering a three-phase unbalanced distribution network, the price signals were determined per phase per node. Overall, the proposed distributed energy management coordinates microgrids, utility-owned DERs, responsive loads with guaranteed network constraints, and preserves the privacy of microgrid customers. This distributed energy management method was further demonstrated through various case studies on a three-phase networked microgrid test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Optimal scheduling for profit maximization of energy storage merchants considering market impact based on dynamic programming

This paper analyzes how electricity merchants' market impact affects merchants' profit. Energy storage has long been studied for its role in maximizing profit, and merchant decisions are assumed to have no impact on market prices. However, the trading decisions of large-scale energy storage merchants (e.g., pumped storage hydro) will affect the market prices. This paper employs dynamic programming theory to investigate merchants' optimal economic dispatch considering the market impact and physical characteristics of storage systems. Our findings show that the State-of-Charge (SOC) based analytical solution significantly facilitates energy storage merchants' decision-making. The SOC range is segmented into three regions by two optimal SOC reference points, which depend on the available energy in storage, given prices, and market impact. By comparing the current storage SOC with the reference points, the merchant can get the corresponding optimal actions. We analytically show that if the merchant neglects the market impact on the power market, she will exaggerate her expected profit when the price-taker and price-maker merchants have the same generating and pumping upper limits offered to Independent System Operators (ISOs). Furthermore, the profit-maximizing merchant must, therefore, assay to balance the trade-off correctly between the intensity of market impact and the dispatched power. Our findings are verified by numerical simulation, and results demonstrate the ramifications for electricity merchants in energy arbitrage decisions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Techno-economic analysis of cathode material production using flame-assisted spray pyrolysis

The cost of cathode materials contributes approximately 32.7% of the total cell construction cost of lithium-ion batteries, significantly affecting the price of battery packs. To reduce the cathode material manufacturing cost, a flame-assisted spray pyrolysis (FSP) method has been developed to utilize a sustainable solvent of glycerol to manufacture the LiNi 1/3 Mn 1/3 Co 1/3 O 2 (NMC333) cathode materials. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the minimum cathode material selling price (MCSP) of the FSP processes compared with a traditional carbonate co-precipitation pathway. Results show that the MCSP of the FSP is $\$$19.1/kg that is 17% lower than the traditional carbonate co-precipitation pathway as a result of lower fixed operating cost and variable overhead. Sensitivity analysis shows that when the new process is integrated with in-situ sintering and processing, the MCSP can be as low as $\$$15.6/kg. When all the material prices are decreased by 20%, the FSP process can synthesize NMC333 at a price of $\$$2.3/kg lower. According to the simulation result, LiNi 0·8 Mn 0·1 Co 0·1 O 2 (NMC811) has the best potential to meet the U.S. Department of Energy battery price target of $\$$125/kWh, demonstrating that the FSP process is an attractive manufacturing technology for NMC cathode powder material production.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Market expectations of a warming climate

In this paper, we compare prices of financial derivatives whose payouts are based on future weather outcomes to CMIP5 climate model predictions as well as observed weather station data across eight cities in the US from 2001 through 2020. Derivative prices respond both to short-term weather forecasts for the next two weeks and longer-term warming trends. We show that the long-term trends in derivative prices are comparable to station-level data and climate model output. The one exception is February in the northeastern US, where financial markets price in a polar vortex-induced cooling effect, a recent scientific finding that was not present in the older CMIP5 climate output. When looking at the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in trends, futures prices are more aligned with climate model output than observed weather station trends, suggesting that market participants closely align their expectations with scientific projections rather than recent observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integration of plant and microbial oil processing at oilcane biorefineries for more sustainable biofuel production

Oilcane—an oil-accumulating crop engineered from sugarcane—and microbial oil have the potential to improve renewable oil production and help meet the expected demand for bioderived oleochemicals and fuels. To assess the potential synergies of processing both plant and microbial oils, the economic and environmental implications of integrating microbial oil production at oilcane and sugarcane biorefineries were characterized. Due to decreased crop yields that lead to higher simulated feedstock prices and lower biorefinery capacities, current oilcane prototypes result in higher costs and carbon intensities than microbial oil from sugarcane. To inform oilcane feedstock development, we calculated the required biomass yields (as a function of oil content) for oilcane to achieve financial parity with sugarcane. At 10 dw% oil, oilcane can sustain up to 30% less yield than sugarcane and still be more profitable in all simulated scenarios. Assuming continued improvements in microbial oil production from cane juice, achieving this target results in a minimum biodiesel selling price of 1.34 [0.90, 1.85] USD∙L –1 (presented as median [5th, 95th] percentiles), a carbon intensity of 0.51 [0.47, 0.55] kg CO 2 e L –1 , and a total biodiesel yield of 2140 [1870, 2410] L ha –1 year –1 . Compared to biofuel production from soybean, this outcome is equivalent to 3.0–3.9 as much biofuel per hectare of land and a 57%–63% reduction in carbon intensity. While only 20% of simulated scenarios fell within the market price range of biodiesel (0.45–1.11 USD∙L –1 ), if the oilcane biomass yield would improve to 25.6 DMT∙ha –1 ∙y –1 (an equivalent yield to sugarcane) 87% of evaluated scenarios would have a minimum biodiesel selling price within or below the market price range.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

U.S. Renewables Portfolio Standards 2021 Status Update: Early Release

Berkeley Lab’s annual status report on U.S. renewables portfolio standards (RPS) provides an overview of key trends associated with U.S. state RPS policies. The report, published in slide-deck form, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on renewables development, and compliance costs. The 2021 Early Release, published in lieu of a 2020 edition, presents historical data through year-end 2019, with some limited results for the year 2020. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: Evolution of state RPS programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies. Among other significant changes since the start of 2019, eight states enacted higher RPS targets or created new clean-energy/zero-carbon targets (AZ, DC, MD, NM, NV, VA, WA), in most cases setting targets equal to at least 50% of retail sales. Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 23% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2019. However, within particular regions-namely, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic-RPS policies continue to serve a central role in motivating RE growth. Future RPS demand and incremental needs: RPS demand growth through 2030 will require roughly 90 GW of new RE capacity and will require total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 17% of electricity sales (compared to 12% in 2019). Relative to EIA projections, this amounts to roughly one-third of projected RE growth over the next decade. RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs rose steeply over 2019, reaching $40/MWh and remaining at roughly that level over 2020. PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise at a modest pace over the course of 2020, reaching $10/MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable over 2020, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC.RPS compliance costs and cost caps: RPS compliance costs in 2019 averaged roughly 2.6% of retail electricity bills in RPS states, compared to 2.3% in 2018, with costs in most states ranging from 0.5% to 4.5% of retail electricity bills.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Opportunities for Industry to Provide Flexibility While Increasing Profitability

Supply and demand flexibility will both be needed to ensure the electricity system functions properly as the share from variable renewable generation continues to grow. Industrial manufacturing currently consumes about a third of primary energy worldwide, and electricity is projected to supply an increasing share of this demand as the global economy decarbonizes. Therefore, the ability for industry to flex demand poses an enticing opportunity to enable grid flexibility. However, large capital outlays prevent industry from voluntarily altering demand. Here we show that as battery costs continue to fall, industry will soon be able to profitably alter demand in accordance with electricity price variations. Focusing on two established industries– chlor-alkali and electric arc furnaces – and two industries with large future potential – methane pyrolysis and atmospheric CO 2 capture, we use a linear program (LP) optimization to assess the technoeconomic feasibility of flexible industrial demand across both historical and future-looking wholesale day-ahead marginal prices for the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). We find positive net present values (NPV) from $\$$400K to $\$$50M using projected 2050 battery prices for industrial purchase of behind-the-meter batteries, using only arbitrage as a source of value. These results indicate that, with projected battery prices, profit-seeking industrial players could voluntarily play a future role in stabilizing a high-renewables grid where electricity prices act as accurate signals of grid needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

6.26 Low Cost Basalt Fiber for Automotive Applications

Vehicle lightweighting is an essential component to the automotive industry to improve fuel economy of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to meet ever improving emission standards and to improve the range of electric vehicles (EV). Composite materials offer high specific modulus and specific strength, which makes them appealing for these light weighting efforts. Sheet molding compounds (SMC) are particularly interesting from an automotive perspective because of the relatively low cost and high volume of producing SMC parts. Traditionally, composite materials for automotive application are glass fiber reinforced because of the attractive price - performance ratio, but basalt fibers are a cost and recycling competitive reinforcement alternative in this market. The aim of this project was to examine the feasibility of utilizing basalt fiber for automotive applications. More specifically, an effort was made to examine different fiber sizings on basalt fiber combined with vinyl-ester (VE) resin, and their performance as part of an SMC process. In addition to offering vehicle lightweighting with fiber reinforced polymer composites, basalt fiber is a fully recyclable material and thus supports the IACMI technical goal of: Demonstrate that the technology is capable at a sufficient scale for >80% recyclability or reuse of fiber reinforced polymer composites in five years into useful components with projected cost and quality at commercial scale competitive with virgin materials on a pathway to 95% recyclability or reuse starting in ten years. Three different fiber sizings were applied to a continuous roving of basalt fiber and compared to a traditional Electrical/Chemical Resistance (E-CR) glass fiber that is typically used in these types of applications. Fiber tows were examined for Loss on Ignition percentage (LOI%), Tex, and tow strength. Some sizings clearly outperformed others, and the ability to process these fibers on a pilot scale SMC line was demonstrated. A test plan for the manufacturing and mechanical testing of SMC panels was developed. This work continues outside the time frame allocated for this project. When this work is completed, it will be added to this report and posted as Appendix C. Glass fiber reinforced SMC materials have already proven feasible as a light weighting method for traditionally steel parts like the Volkswagen (VW) Atlas lift-gate (Figure 1); this project team is seeking the feasibility of basalt fiber as a drop-in replacement for glass fiber reinforced SMC. Sizing development for basalt fibers has proven that the mechanical properties are better than E-glass and closer to S-glass, which makes it an interesting material for SMC applications. Better mechanical properties translate to less material needed to achieve load case requirement for target applications. The business case has already been demonstrated for 100,000 parts per year of glass fiber reinforced SMC Atlas lift-gates compared to traditional steel manufacturing processes. Reduced overhead and assembly costs are offset by glass fiber SMC higher cost per kg beyond 100,000 parts per year, which is still a relatively low volume for the automotive industry. For basalt fiber reinforced SMC to become feasible for automotive applications, the price-performance ratio has to be precisely determined. Based on the mechanical performance it is possible to establish a range of applications and technical solutions in which the potential of basalt SMC can be utilized, while the price of the material can be used to compile the business case for such applications. Based on these business cases and the sustainability indicators, glass fiber reinforcement (or other) materials can be directly substituted. Volkswagen’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions cannot be understated. Basalt fiber shows promise of reducing the carbon footprint in SMC materials, especially if sizing optimizations can be made with thermoplastic based SMC. To fully realize the value of basalt fiber reinforced materials, a lifecycle cost analysis should be performed on basalt’s production and recycling, and then compared against E-glass. From this assessment, a true judgement can be made on the commercialization potential of this material. Figure 1. Example of Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composite Liftgate As a conclusion, we can state that Mafic basalt fiber is not a direct replacement for E-glass or E-CR glass based on price, but should be considered a technical solution when E-glass does not provide adequate performance in a composite design and S-glass, aramid and carbon fibers are too costly. Mafic basalt fiber can be placed on the high-performance fiber spectrum next to S-glass for performance but at one third the price. It should be considered for more technically challenging structural designs wherein the performance can demonstrate 20-25% performance enhancement over E-glass to elicit more strength or a weight reduction. Both Michelman and Mafic produce thermoplastic sizings which, in combination with Nylon and polypropylene resin and fibers, can further advance high speed composite implementations while maintaining an eco-friendly manufacturing process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Projecting California Light-Duty Vehicle Attributes (2019-2035)

In this report, we estimated a set of future vehicle attribute scenarios for new light-duty vehicles for the California market using the Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT). ADOPT starts simulations with all existing vehicle makes and models and endogenously creates new vehicle models over time based on assumed technology improvements and market conditions. For this study, we simulated four scenarios with varied technology, policy, and electric vehicle infrastructure assumptions. We aggregated simulation results into up to 30 vehicle classes (covering size and price classifications) for each powertrain, for six powertrains. We simulated model years 2019 to 2035. We present results for four vehicle attributes: vehicle acceleration, fuel economy (including electric and gasoline for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs]), vehicle range, and vehicle purchase price. We also present results showing the estimated number of vehicle models available in each vehicle class over time. In the Mid scenario, which contains conditions between our most conservative and most optimistic assumptions for emerging electric and hydrogen technologies, we observe improvements in acceleration, range (for battery-electric vehicles [BEVs]), and vehicle purchase price for electric and hydrogen powertrains. In some cases, we project that consumer preferences lead to trade-offs between vehicle attributes, such as reduced fuel economy in exchange for improved acceleration. Conventional vehicles show modest improvements in fuel economy in these scenarios due to the high numbers of BEV and PHEV sales, which reduce the improvements required in conventional vehicles to meet fleet fuel economy standards. In scenarios with advanced technology assumptions (including reduced battery price and improved energy density), we observe further improvements in BEV range and price relative to the improvements in the Mid scenario.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Modeled Results of Four Residential Energy Efficiency Measure Packages for Deriving Advanced Building Construction Research Targets

The Advanced Building Construction (ABC) Initiative from the U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Office is working to accelerate industrialized construction innovations for decarbonizing buildings. To inform performance and cost targets for research under the ABC Initiative, this analysis used the ResStock™ tool to evaluate the energy savings, utility bill impacts, and carbon emissions impacts of four simulated upgrade packages with specific target performance levels on a large sample of residential dwelling units (approximately 550,000) representative of the U.S. housing stock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling and Market Design Considerations for Conventional and Decarbonized Resources

The following paper reviews various market design issues that will need to be reconsidered due to anticipated changes in the resources that supply energy in wholesale electricity markets. As the energy supply continues towards decarbonization, the change in resource technologies will affect the fundamentals of production scheduling and the policies to address supply variability and uncertainty. We show through simple numerical examples that the existing market design approach based on fuel costs will result in $0/MWh prices with intermittent price spikes during reserve shortages, but that incorporating more granular reserve pricing, energy storage participation, and price-responsive demand participation can restore efficient market clearing with reasonable pricing outcomes. The market design approach fundamentally shifts from fuel based to opportunity cost based. We briefly review alternative market design frameworks that can support this shift, including intraday markets, decentralized markets, flexibility options, and swing contracts. Market designs may also be required to accommodate or support various out-of-market policies and agreements; ideally, these external factors can be integrated into the market design to facilitate efficient exchanges across longer time scales, between other markets, and in support of public policy goals. The paper concludes by discussing how decarbonization trends may affect the design and use of production cost models for short term operations and long term planning studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Potential Availability of and Supply Curves for Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity

Among other changes, variable renewable energy (VRE) - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - is achieving a growing share of total generation. High VRE penetrations may result in an increased level of curtailment and thus suppress the value of additional VRE. This VRE, that either would not be built due to price suppression or would be curtailed, can be considered a resource that we define as low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE). LDE could be used for various applications which value low-cost electricity and can operate at reduced capacity factors. Examples include electrolytic hydrogen production and carbon capture. This report provides initial estimates of the quantity and availability of the potential LDE resource in the U.S. under scenarios with high VRE penetrations. It also provides supply curves that can be used in subsequent analysis of the opportunity to use the LDE. We modeled several scenarios using capacity expansion and production cost models for LDE prices ranging from $\$ $0/MWh to $\$ $30/MWh. These LDE prices, coupled with low renewable energy cost assumptions, resulted in VRE penetrations ranging from 48-66% in 2050. The resulting LDE supplies range from 100 - 300 TWh/yr at a price of $\$ $0/MWh to 3,500 - 4,200 TWh/yr at $\$ $30/MWh. Increasing LDE prices increases wind and photovoltaics deployment; however, other generation technology capacities do not decrease equivalently in our models. Thus, additional generation is available but the capacity of traditional dispatchable generation is only reduced slightly. The available LDE is concentrated in the central and southwest U.S. regions because of their high wind and solar resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗