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NASA NTRS2019

Blind Validation Study of Parametric Cost Estimation Tool SEER-H for NASA Space Missions

One of the primary parametric cost modeling tools used by NASA and the aerospace industry to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware is SEER-H by Galorath. To date, no independent validation of this tool for cost estimation of space missions has been reported in the literature. In the present validation study, cost estimators used SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. The point estimates of SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, and a standard deviation of 43%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates. Several factors independent of SEER that may have affected the accuracy of the results have been identified and are discussed; these include: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER-H↗

DOE OSTI2025

Gaussian FLOWERS: Wind-rose-based analytical integration of Gaussian wake model for extremely fast AEP estimation

A major cost in the study of wind farm layout optimization is the repeated evaluation of the annual energy production (AEP). The current approach to estimating AEP requires a large set of flow simulations to be performed that cover each discrete wind speed and direction combination contained within the wind rose, followed by a probability-weighted sum of the power production resulting from each simulation. Even with inexpensive engineering wake models, this numerical integration scheme can lead to high computational costs. In this paper, we derive an analytical formulation for estimating farm AEP across every wind direction, based on a Gaussian wake velocity model, which reduces the number of wind farm simulations to a single function evaluation. As a result, we find that the Gaussian-FLOWERS approach reduces the time for AEP calculations by more than two orders of magnitude with a small trade-off in accuracy when compared to a conventional approach. This massive reduction in computation cost is useful to reduce overall costs in wind farm layout optimization studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grid-Integrated Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels from Nuclear Power

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) investigates the relative economic profitability of an integrated energy system (IES) coupling an NPP with a synfuel production process at selected case study locations across the United States. In the synfuel IES, a high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) plant is thermally and electrically coupled with an NPP to produce zero-carbon hydrogen. The synthetic fuel is produced from this H 2 combined with a CO 2 supply using the reverse water gas shift process followed by the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) reaction. This analysis considers a system in which the CO 2 is sourced from regional CO 2 emitters via the construction and operation of pipeline-based CO 2 supply networks. Locating the FT plant at the same site as the NPP and HTSE plants enables the NPP to provide zero-carbon heat and power to the HTSE plant and zero-carbon power to the FT plant as well as avoid the requirement for long-distance H 2 product transport from the HTSE plant to the FT plant. Hydrogen storage is used to enable the NPP to dispatch power to the electrical grid (instead of the HTSE plant) when grid demand increases, thus enabling the FT plant to continue to operate in a steady-state production mode. The ability to cease hydrogen production for several hours within each day enables the NPP to provide power to the grid to balance the electricity market during peak periods and maximize revenues for the nuclear synfuel IES. The FT process design considered has a 99% carbon conversion efficiency. The use of nuclear energy and nuclear energy-derived hydrogen enables synfuel production to achieve this high level of carbon utilization. Additionally, the life-cycle carbon emissions of the nuclear-based synfuel production process are very low, with WTW emissions of approximately 25 gCO 2 e/MJ, including steam credits (generated from FT process excess heat), and approximately 7 gCO 2 e/MJ, if steam credits are excluded. This compares favorably with the WTW emissions of 90.5 gCO 2 e/MJ for a compression-ignition, direct injection (CIDI) vehicle with a fuel economy of 31.6 miles per gallon gasoline equivalent (MPGGE), using low-sulfur diesel produced using conventional petroleum production and refining processes. Several NPPs in various regions of the U.S. are considered as case study analyses. Supply locations and transportation via pipeline of the CO 2 feedstock to the NPP site are analyzed through the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) CO 2 Transport Cost model. The team finds that the amount of CO 2 generated by different sectors is sufficient for the synfuel production process at all locations considered. The CO 2 transportation costs are functions of the distance of the source to the NPP location, the CO 2 capture cost at the source, and the quantity of CO 2 transported. Historical electricity prices for the NPP case study locations are collected and analyzed. Monthly average prices, price range, and duration of negative-price periods vary among these locations. For each location, an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model is trained on historical electricity price data. ARMA validation is done to ensure the synthetic price distributions represent one of historical prices with high fidelity. Synthetic time series from these ARMA models are used in a coupled dispatch and system optimization in the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) to compute the differential net present value (NPV) of the IES. The team finds that this econometric is positive, ranging from $14M–1.3bn (2020) depending on the location. The optimal synfuel IES configuration to obtain this increase in NPV often maximizes the size of the synfuel production process with regards to the size of the NPP. However, the team shows that the NPP still plays a stabilizing role for the grid: In periods of high prices and high loads, more electricity from the NPP is sent to the grid. A high variability of electricity prices and extreme maximum prices tend to drive up electricity production. While it requires significant investment, the synfuel IES could increase the economic profitability for the existing fleet of LWRs across the country while still maintaining the grid stabilizer role of NPPs. During its lifetime, the main costs for the nuclear synfuel IES are the carbon feedstock transportation costs, followed by the capital expenses (CAPEX) and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs while the revenue comes first from the IRA H 2 production tax credit (PTC) and then from the sales of synfuel products. The profitability of the synfuel IES is most sensitive to the value of the hydrogen PTC and the synfuel products as well as the cost of the carbon feedstock, highlighting the importance of governmental incentives regarding hydrogen, carbon emissions, and synfuel in driving the deployment of future nuclear synfuel IESs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Final Report: Process Intensification of Hydrogen Production through Sorption-Enhanced Gasification of Biomass

The University of Utah, in partnership with Idaho National Laboratory (INL), evaluated Sorption-Enhanced Gasification (SEG) as a transformative pathway for producing hydrogen with the potential for negative CO 2 emissions. SEG integrates gasification, water-gas shift, and in-situ carbon capture within a dual fluidized bed reactor to enable efficient clean hydrogen production. Key challenges related to biomass variability and process complexity were addressed through feedstock engineering, reaction optimization, and process validation. A co-pelletized biomass–limestone feedstock was developed to simplify feeding and introduction of makeup limestone. Kinetic and sorbent studies identified optimal operating conditions and confirmed the suitability of low-cost limestone, while catalysts were developed to reduce tar formation. Reactor modeling and techno-economic analysis indicated that SEG can achieve competitive hydrogen production costs, particularly when combined with carbon incentives, supporting its potential for scale-up and carbon-negative operation.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Thermochemical Platform Analysis WBS: 2.1.0.302

The objective of the NREL Thermochemical Platform Analysis (WBS 2.1.0.302) project is to inform and guide R&D priorities for thermal and catalytic conversion processes by providing process design and techno-economic analysis (TEA). This is achieved through close collaboration with researchers and external experts, along with the use of both commercially available modeling tools and the development or use of collaboration-derived domain-specific tools and resources, such as refinery integration, kinetic and reactor models, phase equilibrium models, and pertinent bio-products market studies. This project is directly aligned with DOE-BETO goals, with the enabling of technology advancements and cost reduction for biomass derived biofuels being one of its primary objectives. TEA-guided research facilitated by this project has helped achieve significant modeled cost reductions for the ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) pathway and the indirect liquefaction (IDL) pathway for the conversion of syngas to high-octane gasoline (HOG). Cost reduction through refinery integration, development of valuable co-products, and other options are being identified for future research to help reduce the modeled MFSP to $2.50/GGE by 2030. Additional priorities anticipated in the future, such as the use of renewable electricity for liquid fuels and products, and emphasis on waste utilization are also being explored in conjunction with research on catalytic utilization of syngas and other gases (including CO2). Industry-relevant parameters are given deliberate attention as part of the work done under this project to help answer questions important for future commercialization and address associated risks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling and Analysis of a Novel Offshore Binary Species Free-Floating Longline Macroalgal Farming System

The investigation of innovative macroalgal cultivation is important and needed to optimize farming operations, increase biomass production, reduce the impact on the ecosystem, and lower system and operational costs. However, most macroalgal farming systems (MFSs) are stationary, which need to occupy a substantial coastal area, require extensive investment in farm infrastructure, and cost high fertilizer and anchoring expenses. This study aims to model, analyze, and support a novel binary species free-floating longline macroalgal cultivation concept. The expected outcomes could provide a basis for the design and application of the novel MFS to improve biomass production, decrease costs, and reduce the impact on the local ecosystem. In this paper, Saccharina latissima and Nereocystis luetkeana were modeled and validated, and coupled with longline to simulate the binary species MFS free float in various growth periods and associated locations along the US west coast. Further, the numerical predictions indicated the possibility of failure on the longline and breakage at the kelp holdfasts is low. However, the large forces due to an instantaneous change in dynamic loads caused by loss of hydrostatic buoyancy when the longline stretches out of the water would damage the kelps. Buoy-longline contact interactions could damage the buoy, resulting in the loss of the system by sinking. Furthermore, the kelp-longline and kelp-kelp entanglements could potentially cause kelp damage.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

Design, processing and testing of LSI arrays, hybrid microelectronics task

Mathematical cost models previously developed for hybrid microelectronic subsystems were refined and expanded. Rework terms related to substrate fabrication, nonrecurring developmental and manufacturing operations, and prototype production are included. Sample computer programs were written to demonstrate hybrid microelectric applications of these cost models. Computer programs were generated to calculate and analyze values for the total microelectronics costs. Large scale integrated (LST) chips utilizing tape chip carrier technology were studied. The feasibility of interconnecting arrays of LSU chips utilizing tape chip carrier and semiautomatic wire bonding technology was demonstrated.

Himmel, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Decision Tool that Combines Discrete Event Software Process Models with System Dynamics Pieces for Software Development Cost Estimation and Analysis

The development process for a large software development project is very complex and dependent on many variables that are dynamic and interrelated. Factors such as size, productivity and defect injection rates will have substantial impact on the project in terms of cost and schedule. These factors can be affected by the intricacies of the process itself as well as human behavior because the process is very labor intensive. The complex nature of the development process can be investigated with software development process models that utilize discrete event simulation to analyze the effects of process changes. The organizational environment and its effects on the workforce can be analyzed with system dynamics that utilizes continuous simulation. Each has unique strengths and the benefits of both types can be exploited by combining a system dynamics model and a discrete event process model. This paper will demonstrate how the two types of models can be combined to investigate the impacts of human resource interactions on productivity and ultimately on cost and schedule.

Mizell, Carolyn Barrett↗

NASA NTRS1980

A mass reduction effort of the electric and hybrid vehicle

Weight reduction, cost competitiveness, and elimination of the intrusion beam resulted from the redesign and fabrication using composite materials of the door outer panel and intrusion beam from a Chevrolet Impala. The basis of the redesign involved replacing these two steel parts with a single compression molding using the unique approach of simultaneously curing a sheet molding compound outside panel with a continuous glass fiber intrusion strap. A weight reduction of nearly 11 pounds per door was achieved. Additional weight savings are possible by taking advantage of the elimination of the intrusion beam to design thinner door structures. The parts consolidation approach allows the composite structure to be cost competitive with the original steel design for both the lower production car models and for the near to midterm production vehicles using current state of the art composite production techniques. The design, prototype fabrication, costing, material, properties and compression molding production requirements are discussed.

Freeman, R. B.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Conceptual Basis and Techno-Economic Modeling for Integrated Algal Biorefinery Conversion of Microalgae to Fuels and Products (2019 NREL TEA Update: Highlighting Paths to Future Cost Goals via a New Pathway for Combined Algal Processing)

The report documents the conceptual basis for a new potential Combined Algal Processing design strategy which may allow more flexibility in accommodating different algal biomass feedstock compositions, by enabling upgrading of both protein and carbohydrates in a single step, without a strict requirement for either component to be in soluble or monomeric form, while maintaining effective wet lipid extraction techniques to enable high lipid recoveries. In light of previously-established constraints around algal biomass costs (which are significantly higher than lignocellulosic terrestrial biomass), the present CAP processing strategy reflects an integrated biorefinery concept producing both fuels and value-added chemical coproducts as a means to improve profitability and generate coproduct revenues to help drive down the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) towards economically viable levels. Namely, this report highlights an integrated CAP biorefinery process and associated technical targets that would be required to achieve U.S. Department of Energy target MFSP goals of $2.5/gallon gasoline equivalent by 2030. This is accomplished by a process involving low-cost seasonal storage of algal biomass during high-growth seasons, rapid flash hydrolysis pretreatment of the biomass, solvent extraction of pretreated biomass, cleanup and fractionation of lipids into triglyceride and free fatty acid fractions, and a series of thermochemical conversion steps to upgrade carbohydrates and protein to hydrocarbon fuels. These steps include mild oxidative treatment (MOT), a process originally investigated at NREL for upgrading lignin, followed by catalytic ketonization and hydrotreating of MOT products to fuels. Isolated triglycerides are sent to a coproduct train, with the base case focused on upgrading to polyurethane foams as a high-value, high-market-volume coproduct.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effect of particle characteristics, kinetics and transport phenomena on the prediction of particle mass loss and products yields during biomass fast pyrolysis

Here a low computational cost model for the pyrolysis of biomass anisotropic particles was used to study the effect of thermal conductivity of the particle, CRECK kinetic scheme implementation, intraparticle secondary reactions, heats of reaction, and advection on particle conversion prediction. The model considers a shrinking anisotropic cylindrical particle with biomass pseudo-components, the appearance of liquid intermediates, intra-particle mass and heat transport and secondary reactions of volatiles. The model was validated against oak and birchwood single particle experiments. More accurate predictions for mass loss evolution are found when considering the change of the particle thermal conductivity anisotropy with conversion and the temperature dependency of the thermal conductivities of the biomass and the gas phase, compared to ignoring these phenomena. The CRECK biomass pyrolysis reaction scheme provides insights into the effect of biomass composition on the evolution of the liquid intermediate phase allowing future studies about the presence of heavy compounds in the bio-oil and other phenomena such as aerosol ejection. Secondary intraparticle vapor phase reactions showed a negligible effect in volatiles conversion while heterogeneous reactions slightly overestimate its conversion. Heats of reaction and product advection are important for accurate prediction of particle mass loss.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1990

The cleanroom case study in the Software Engineering Laboratory: Project description and early analysis

This case study analyzes the application of the cleanroom software development methodology to the development of production software at the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. The cleanroom methodology emphasizes human discipline in program verification to produce reliable software products that are right the first time. Preliminary analysis of the cleanroom case study shows that the method can be applied successfully in the FDD environment and may increase staff productivity and product quality. Compared to typical Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) activities, there is evidence of lower failure rates, a more complete and consistent set of inline code documentation, a different distribution of phase effort activity, and a different growth profile in terms of lines of code developed. The major goals of the study were to: (1) assess the process used in the SEL cleanroom model with respect to team structure, team activities, and effort distribution; (2) analyze the products of the SEL cleanroom model and determine the impact on measures of interest, including reliability, productivity, overall life-cycle cost, and software quality; and (3) analyze the residual products in the application of the SEL cleanroom model, such as fault distribution, error characteristics, system growth, and computer usage.

Green, Scott↗

NASA NTRS1974

National economic models of industrial water use and waste treatment

The effects of air emission and solid waste restrictions on production costs and resource use by industry is investigated. A linear program is developed to analyze how resource use, production cost, and waste discharges in different types of production may be affected by resource limiting policies of the government. The method is applied to modeling ethylene and ammonia plants at the design stage. Results show that the effects of increasingly restrictive wastewater effluent standards on increased energy use were small in both plants. Plant models were developed for other industries and the program estimated effects of wastewater discharge policies on production costs of industry.

Thompson, R. G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrated hydrological, power system and economic modelling of climate impacts on electricity demand and cost

Impacts of climate-related water stress and temperature changes can cascade through energy systems, although models have yet to capture this compounding of effects. Here, we employ a coupled water–power–economy model to capture these important interactions in a study of the exceedance of water temperature thresholds for power generation in the western United States. We find that not all reductions in reserve electricity-generation capacity result in impacts, and that when they occur, intermittent interruptions in electricity supply at critical times of the day, week and year account for much of the economic impacts. Finally, we find that impacts may be in different locations from the original water stress. Herein, we estimate that the consumption loss can be up to 0.3% annually and the drivers identified in coupled modelling can increase the average cost of electricity by up to 3%. Integrated models will be needed to capture the cascading effects of climate change through climatic, water, energy and economic systems. Webster et al. now develop a coupled hydrologic–power-production–economic model to estimate water-stress impacts on electricity cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Investigation of the benefits of diabatic microreactors for process intensification of the water-gas shift reaction within the steam reforming process

Presently, the steam reforming process is the largest industrial source of hydrogen. Improving its efficiency can help to reduce associated carbon emissions and hydrogen production costs. Intensifying the water-gas shift reaction using microreactors with integrated cooling is one way of achieving this. In this study, a 2-D computational model of one of these microreactors is developed, validated with experimental data, and then used to demonstrate how microreactors can enhance the conversion of the water-gas shift reaction beyond what can be achieved using conventional packed bed reactors. These results are then generalized into a full system model of the steam reforming process to demonstrate how microreactors can reduce hydrogen production costs. The results suggest that microreactors can significantly reduce the required reactor volume and catalyst loading for the water-gas shift reaction and can similarly reduce the hydrogen production costs associated with the steam reforming process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1988

Software sizing, cost estimation and scheduling

The Technology Implementation and Support Section at Martin Marietta Astronautics Group Denver is tasked with software development analysis, data collection, software productivity improvement and developing and applying various computerized software tools and models. The computerized tools are parametric models that reflect actuals taken from the large data base of completed software development projects. Martin Marietta's data base consists of over 300 completed projects and hundreds of cost estimating relationships (CERs) that are used in sizing, costing, scheduling and productivity improvement equations, studies, models and computerized tools.

Cheadle, William G.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis Tool for Electrochemical Conversion of CO2 to CO

Data presented in poster is sourced from the Electrochemical Catalyst Sensitivity Analysis Tool. This tool comprises a material balance model with cost estimation to estimate the levelized cost of product for CO production via CO2 electrolysis. A set of sensitivity analyses on key system and financial parameters is included with results so that users can test the impacts of these parameters on LCOP.

Henry, Samuel↗

NASA NTRS1980

Integrated computer-aided design using minicomputers

Computer-Aided Design/Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAD/CAM), a highly interactive software, has been implemented on minicomputers at the NASA Langley Research Center. CAD/CAM software integrates many formerly fragmented programs and procedures into one cohesive system; it also includes finite element modeling and analysis, and has been interfaced via a computer network to a relational data base management system and offline plotting devices on mainframe computers. The CAD/CAM software system requires interactive graphics terminals operating at a minimum of 4800 bits/sec transfer rate to a computer. The system is portable and introduces 'interactive graphics', which permits the creation and modification of models interactively. The CAD/CAM system has already produced designs for a large area space platform, a national transonic facility fan blade, and a laminar flow control wind tunnel model. Besides the design/drafting element analysis capability, CAD/CAM provides options to produce an automatic program tooling code to drive a numerically controlled (N/C) machine. Reductions in time for design, engineering, drawing, finite element modeling, and N/C machining will benefit productivity through reduced costs, fewer errors, and a wider range of configuration.

Storaasli, O. O.↗