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Capability Building Progression of an Insider Threat Mitigation Program at an International Research Reactor

The nuclear industry recognizes the difficulties involved in developing effective managerial and leadership skills in a highly technical and proficient workforce such as that found in nuclear facilities. Implementing an insider threat mitigation program (ITMP) within the nuclear industry is a complex and ongoing process that demands a comprehensive understanding of human behavior, an organization’s security culture, and rigorous regulatory requirements yet also accounts for facility characteristics, physical security, material flow, and activities involving nuclear material. Given the high-consequence nature of research reactor operations, even minor lapses can lead to safety, security, and reputational risks. An effective ITMP requires a defense-in-depth approach that incorporates behavioral analysis, robust vetting procedures, continuous monitoring, and cross-disciplinary coordination. It must also promote a culture of vigilance and accountability at all levels up to and including executive leadership but be flexible enough to adapt to evolving global threats and technological advances. Insider threat mitigation is not a one-time effort but rather a sustained commitment to excellence in safety and security. Establishing a culture in which personnel proactively report incidents and issues that could affect nuclear safety and security is vital to maintaining a safe and secure operational environment. This document was developed to guide senior management and research reactor organizations in creating comprehensive programs to effectively manage and mitigate insider threat behaviors and actions. It focuses on the key pillars of an effective ITMP, including the national legal framework, security culture, preventive and protective measures, cyber security, and performance evaluation. By using a systematic approach during implementation, facilities can foster environments conducive to insider threat detection and support long-term program sustainability. The document also provides strategies for improving communication across all levels of an organization, helping to eliminate barriers that hinder the development of robust ITMPs and enhance overall security culture. In today’s organizations, the concept of leveraging safety and security culture lessons to facilitate knowledge transfer is rapidly evolving to expedite insider threat management and security culture improvements. This document outlines the rationale for evaluating an ITMP based on national customs, culture, and stakeholders. The elements are all germane to reliability and trustworthiness and relate to security concerns that states may encounter. The document focuses not only on individual perceptions regarding security issues and capability building but also on team building and how to resolve concerns. The implementers of a facility’s ITMP may zero in on indicators of insider threats within their enterprise. This material will benefit organizations when it is applied using a systematic and structured approach as demonstrated throughout the document.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Dynamic Capacitive Wireless Power Transfer System for Electric Vehicles (CRADA Final Report)

Road transportation accounts for 23% of our nation's total energy consumption, 59% of our petroleum consumption and 22% of our total emissions. Electric vehicles (EVs) have much higher well-to-wheel efficiency compared to gasoline vehicles and can reduce our dependence on oil, minimize emissions, improve local air quality and provide a platform for technological innovation and economic growth. While major progress has been made in the development of electric vehicles, their penetration remains under 1 The main hurdles in their widespread adoption are high cost, limited range and long charging times, due to limitations in battery technology. An approach to overcome these hurdles is to substantially reduce the on-board energy storage and instead deliver power wirelessly to the vehicle while it is in motion dynamic wireless power transfer (WPT). For EV charging applications, researchers have traditionally focused on inductive WPT. An issue with inductive WPT systems is that for magnetic flux guidance and shielding, they require ferrite cores, making them expensive, bulky and difficult to embed in the roadway. Under an ARPA-E IDEAS grant, the CU Boulder team has recently developed an alternative approach to WPT based on capacitive coupling that is much smaller, lighter, less expensive, and easier to embed in the roadway than inductive WPT; and have demonstrated a 1.2-kW 6.78-MHz version of this capacitive WPT system on a stationary platform. Under this seed grant program, preliminary work will be carried out on a dynamic capacitive WPT system to prepare a strong proposal for the ARPA-E OPEN 2018 FOA.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Case Study: Hybrid Carbon Conversion Using Low-Carbon Energy Sources in Coal-Producing States

The demand for more carbon efficient power sources and a decrease in natural gas prices has decreased the desire for coal power. This decrease in demand has led to massive job losses in coal mining regions over the past decade. The purpose of this project is to develop a hybrid energy system utilizing both a coal power plant and advanced reactor, which is competitive with natural gas by improving on profitability and decreasing carbon emissions. This report details the problem with a summary of the impact on the coal industry and the availability of renewable energy sources in the Appalachian region. Because of the geography of the region, variable renewable energy sources are not available without significant size and siting restrictions. However, biomass in the form of wood waste is abundant and can be used as a carbon neutral energy source. Combining biomass and coal processing, in addition to thermal power plants, can increase system profits and efficiency by providing peaking power and conversion opportunities for secondary markets. The electric load is based on publicly available demand data from Appalachian Power, which services the western Virginia and southern West Virginia in the Appalachian region. The demand information is combined by service, normalized, and scaled to an average demand of 1000 kW, which will be the basis for sizing the hybrid energy system. A traditional screening curve analysis for a coal plant and advanced reactor shows that the least cost design varies significantly based on the assumed discount rate and capital recovery period. An optimization program to size the design in TEAL based on the load curve gives 10 optimal designs, all with a negative resulting net present value (NPV) and a coal plant capacity of less than 15%. Including profits from selling captured carbon at a flat rate results in a positive NPV; however, the coal capacity factor only increases to about 40%. There are limitations with this optimization as well since the price of CO2 is likely to decrease as more is sold to the conversion market. The suggested design will combine coal power, an advanced reactor, and coal and biomass coprocessing to produce a variety of products that can be sold to the conversion market while increasing system efficiency. The analysis of conversion pathways for coal and biomass reveals that multiple options will need to be included in the analysis to produce the optimal system design. Three systems will be optimized and compared to determine the best design based on the figures of merit of total NPV and cost of carbon avoided. The first system will include a coal power plant and an advanced reactor that will sell electricity to the grid to meet demand and sell captured carbon to the conversion market. The second system adds a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant, which will utilize electricity during times of low demand to produce hydrogen and sell it to the conversion market. The third system adds biomass and coal processing with options for hydrocarbon oils, syngas to be produced for the conversion market, and electricity generation to power components within the system or provide peaking power. This analysis will be based on a new approach that combines traditional screening curve methods with a dispatch algorithm that optimizes the system based on the opportunity cost of different production options. The resulting optimization algorithm should provide results with less processing time than HERON’s decision tree method. The results from this analysis will determine an optimal design and reinforce the benefits of coal power when used in a hybrid energy system. The initial results show that the addition of a secondary market for carbon sales could result in a positive NPV and increases the capacity factor of the coal plant as compared to a design with only sales to the electricity market. The addition of more markets and additional coal consumption from biomass coprocessing could increase NPV further, replace carbon in other markets through the sale of biomass-derived hydrocarbons, and demonstrate the value of coal power technology.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE Deep Energy Retrofit Cost Survey

A survey was conducted by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on deep energy retrofit (DER) market drivers, opportunities, and challenges. The survey was part a research study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy to gather information on the costs of DER from home performance contractors and stakeholders. Cost data was gathered from DER projects that use a comprehensive, whole-home approach to drastically reduce energy use and improve performance. DER projects often aim at reducing energy use by 50% or more. In addition, these projects can improve home comfort and potentially benefiting occupant health. Yet, market adoption of DER has been limited. Major limiting factors include complex projects, high costs, perceived risks, extensive disruption, and unfamiliar work scopes to some contractors. In order to better understand what motivates and deters DER projects in today’s market, a survey was conducted to gather this information, and to learn about promising approaches and technologies from the industry perspective. Past surveys on homeowners and home energy performance professionals have studied the motivations and barriers of energy efficiency retrofits. Two surveys of home energy performance professionals were conducted in recent years. The Resources for the Future (RFF) Home Energy Audit and Retrofit Survey was conducted in 2011 by recruiting energy auditors and retrofit installers through members of Efficiency First and Building Performance Institute (BPI) accredited contractors. The survey asked about the business and services that respondents provide, how often homeowners follow their recommendations to retrofit their homes, and the respondents’ opinion on barriers faced by the industry. The survey found that not enough homeowners know about energy audits, but more importantly, it is the high cost of retrofits compared to low energy prices that is responsible for few energy audits and retrofits being completed. The RESNET Deep Retrofit Industry Stakeholder Survey was conducted shortly after launching of the EnergySmart Home Performance Team program. The EnergySmart Team program involves a formal agreement among allied contractors who are engaged in high performance retrofits. Using this allied team approach, teams can pool their expertise and provide each other with customer referrals. The survey asked EnergySmart Team members and outside stakeholders on questions about market and technical barriers in performing home energy retrofits. Survey respondents identified lack of consumer awareness and lack of affordable financing for consumers as the leading market barriers to home energy retrofits. In their written comments, many survey respondents also echoed that the high costs of retrofit compared to low energy prices is a market barrier. Respondents found “certain housing characteristics that prevent effective retrofit” and “energy analysis software inaccuracy or limitations” are the two leading technical barriers. Their choices for technical barriers were reflective of the energy rater/auditor role played by the majority (78%) of the survey respondents. In comparison to past surveys, this work aimed to gather inputs from a broader segment of the home performance industry to identify the opportunities and barriers faced by DERs from all perspectives. The survey asks for project costs to help breakdown the high costs of DERs. This survey is also motivated by a need to better understand the role of DERs in reducing energy use by the residential sectors and meeting climate goals. The survey is designed towards obtaining more substantive inputs from survey respondents by encouraging written comments, rather than setting the goal to reach a large number of respondents. We took this approach because DER is currently still a niche market, so it is more valuable to gather in-depth inputs from individuals who are performing this work rather than getting to the masses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Juvenile Salmon and Their Habitats in the Columbia River Estuary: A Review and Synthesis of Knowledge Development 2000–2025

[This is a 90% discussion draft.] This is the third Synthesis Memorandum funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and developed for the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program (CEERP) on the topic of habitat restoration in the Columbia River Estuary (CRE) from Bonneville Dam to the river mouth. While the first two were developed by PNNL and NOAA without the benefit of stakeholder participation, for the current memo, two key activities were initiated: (1) review, by the Expert Regional Technical Group (ERTG), of status and trends monitoring and action effectiveness monitoring funded by CEERP, and (2) a workshop including representatives of the Bonneville Power Administration and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (the action agencies [AAs]), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), major research agencies contributing to CEERP, and sponsors who implement CEERP restoration actions. A systematic literature review was conducted using ClarivateTM Web of ScienceTM database. The topics of interest for CRE relevant research included salmon ecology, physical processes, and wetland habitats, and therefore required the use of broad search terms. Our final search criteria included a combination of Boolean operators and an approach to combine different sets of search terms. The final search result yielded 669 records. The records were classified by groups and assigned to the relevant disciplinary expert for review. The review identified substantive advances in understanding the provision of salmon habitat functions through spatiotemporally dynamic physical and ecological processes, and the use of CRE habitats by numerous stocks of juvenile salmon. It also uncovered heretofore unincorporated historical documentation of riparian habitats across the CRE. The characterization of the structural components of floodplain habitat including plant associations and channel networks has advanced considerably, together with the understanding of seasonal changes and long-term trends. The relative influence of salmon-habitat location in the CRE as compared with temporal factors, mainly season, has been well described, which affects the prioritization of restoration. Stressors on the ecosystem and fish, and the drivers of these stressors, have been more carefully elucidated and predictive models are in various stages of development. The vision, aims, and design of restoration projects have advanced together with methods of data collection, analysis, and modeling that have seen substantial improvements. Experiments intended to inform the design of restoration projects are underway or have been completed. An important outstanding area of research that has lagged behind the advances in fundamental understanding of the ecosystem and salmon habitat functions remains the peer-reviewed documentation of the outcomes of restoration for both habitats and fish functions.

estuary↗

Quantitative Risk Analysis of High Safety Significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants using IRADIC Technology

This report documents the activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2021 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) Risk Assessment project. In FY-2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment technology for the DI&C systems (IRADIC technology) was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for the High Safety Significant Safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) develop an advanced risk assessment technology to support transition from analog to DI&C technologies for nuclear industry, (3) assure the long-term safety and reliability of vital HSSSR DI&C systems, (4) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals and deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, the IRADIC technology is instructive for nuclear vendors and utilities to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify responding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the individual level, system level, and plant level, (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks; thus, to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs). In this report, an approach for performing software CCF analysis, given limited data, is developed and demonstrated using a case study of a highly redundant digital reactor trip system. Consequence analysis is also performed based on different accident scenarios. Results indicate that plant modernization including the improvement of HSSSR DI&C systems will make great benefits to plant safety by providing more safety margins to accident management. In addition, a novel approach is proposed in this report for the quantification of software hazards when sufficient operational and testing data available. The method incorporates software development quality as well as strong analysis techniques to identify and link software defects to potential failure modes. The approach includes both semantic and test-based analysis to detect failures that can exist in different stages of the software development life cycle. This method is applied to an advanced human system interface relevant to reactor trip safety developed from the APR 1400 design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Core Design of the Holos-Quad Microreactor

The Holos-Quad micro-reactor concept, developed by HolosGen LLC, is equipped with a 22 MWt (Mega-Watt thermal) core and an integral power conversion system converting the core thermal energy into approximately 10 MWe (Mega-Watt electric). This design can be configured to support a wide range of applications. It is a very innovative high-temperature gas-cooled reactor concept using TRI-structural ISOtropic particle fuel (TRISO) distributed in graphite hexagonal blocks, cooled with helium in a direct Brayton cycle independently executed by four Subcritical Power Modules (SPMs) fitted into a hardened 40-foot container whose dimensions are in compliance with ISO shipping containers requirements. In FY2019 HolosGen LLC was awarded by the Department of Energy Advanced Research Project Agency-Energy (DOE ARPA-E) under the MEITNER funding program. As part of the MEITNER award, the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) contributed expertise through two specialized teams: The “Design Team” and the “Resource Team”. The Design Team was dedicated to validate feasibility of the Holos-Quad core and to optimize its core design through neutronics analyses. The Resource Team was dedicated to feasibility verification via high-fidelity codes of Holos-Quad thermal-hydraulic, heat transfer, shielding, and structural aspects. This report summarizes the activities conducted by ANL Design Team. A rigorous design approach based on multi-criteria optimization and code-to-code comparison involving stochastic and high-fidelity deterministic solutions was developed and employed at several evolutionary stages of the Holos-Quad design. Several generations of the Holos-Quad core were designed within this project before converging to the current full-scale Gen 2+ design that is detailed in this report. Figure EA-1 illustrates a cross-sectional view of Gen 2+ Holos-Quad core configuration, and Figure EA-2 provides a simplified perspective view of 1-of-4 SPMs. The Holos-Quad uses four thermal-hydraulically independent SPMs locked into stationary positions during power operation, surrounded by BeO reflector and structural component fully comprised within the dimensional constraints represented by traditional ISO containers. One of the benefits of this approach is to enable transportation of each SPM promptly after irradiation in shielded containers. The core is designed to operate for approximately 8 full-power years while the reactivity controls and power conversion system enable load-following operations. The reactivity controls are represented by independent, diversified, and redundant reactivity control systems based on control drums and redundant sets of shutdown rods. The high-fidelity simulation tools were used to assess detailed power and flux distributions of the three-dimensional full-core or quarter-core of the Gen 2+ configuration. Single-physics and multi-physics simulations of the neutronics code PROTEUS and the thermal-hydraulic code System Analysis Module (SAM) were performed to analyze the Holos design configurations with detailed high-fidelity solutions. The design work performed confirmed feasibility of the Holos-Quad concept, provided realistic design description for detailed design of the operational system, and identified several core design improvements to be further considered for future reactor development activities.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Topical Report – Findings on Subtask 2.7 – Wet ESP and Aerosol Testing at Coal Creek Station

Growing concerns over the impact of CO 2 emissions from combustion sources on global climate change have prompted numerous research and development projects aimed at developing cost-effective technologies for CO 2 capture. One family of technologies being demonstrated at pilot and full scale globally is postcombustion carbon capture (PCCC) systems that employ amine-based solvents. The captured CO 2 can be compressed and permanently stored underground or used for enhanced oil recovery. The proximity of North Dakota’s lignite-fired fleet of power plants to potential CO 2 storage options creates a unique atmosphere for PCCC within the state. However, the unique components present in lignite flue gas present a challenge for large-scale PCCC at North Dakota power plants by contributing to aerosol formation. Aerosols can negatively impact the long-term performance of amine-based solvents for CO 2 capture. Amine-based solvents are volatile, and flue gas particulate provides nucleation sites where amine vapors can condense as aerosols. Because aerosols cannot be easily captured at the column outlet using conventional technologies, the amine-laden aerosols escape the system and lead to accelerated solvent losses. Moreover, particulate components can chemically react with amines to form degradation products that can permanently deactivate the amine, cause fouling, and lead to hazardous emissions. Many of the elements that have been shown to catalyze solvent degradation are present in lignite coals and can exacerbate solvent replacement economics. Understanding this issue is critical to the implementation of solvent-based CO 2 capture systems as applied to lignite-fired generation systems. The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) designed and carried out this project to fully characterize aerosol behavior with various control technologies installed to better optimize aerosol mitigation technology for CO 2 capture. To meet the goal of this project, the following objectives were identified: Determine the effectiveness of a wet electrostatic precipitator (WESP) on mitigating formation of problematic aerosols at Great River Energy’s Coal Creek Station, upstream of the PCCC system. Determine the effectiveness of the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) proprietary amine emission reduction unit (AERU) as a postcapture solvent recovery system for reducing aerosol emissions and extending solvent life downstream of the PCCC system. Determine the impact of aerosols on the efficiency and degradation products of both commercial and advanced solvents within the PCCC system. Work was conducted at Coal Creek Station Unit 1 using a slipstream of flue gas from the outlet of the plant’s flue gas desulfurization (FGD) unit. Flue gas was routed through a pilot-scale FGD unit to remove SO 2 to very low levels (~1 ppm) and then through a direct contact cooler (DCC) to further cool the gas and to remove moisture. The gas exiting the DCC was then optionally routed through a WESP before passing to the CO 2 absorber columns. The MHI solvent was used to scrub CO 2 from the slipstream through a set of two absorber columns. The rich solvent was regenerated in a stripper column by heating to drive off captured CO 2 . Flue gas exiting the absorber column was routed to MHI’s proprietary AERU to recover entrained solvent. The system operated using a catch-and-release method where the CO 2 was separated to provide data on the process, but the captured CO 2 was released back into the host site stack. Particulate was measured, collected, and analyzed from multiple locations throughout the pilot-scale system. Unlike the performance observed in prior work, the inlet FGD and DCC did not remove significant particulate matter from the flue gas. This appears to be due to a difference in the nature of the particulate. The DCC seemed to increase particulate size and count, most likely owing to water condensing onto the surfaces of fly ash particles. When the WESP was operated, it achieved >95% particulate capture. Very little particulate matter or indications of solvent were detected at the AERU outlet. When operating with advanced KS 21 solvent, the particulate material at the AERU outlet was even further decreased. Solvent analysis showed that some species derived from flue gas and ash were slowly concentrating in the solvent over the duration of the test. The levels observed were reported to be within expected ranges and were not of concern to MHI. A high-level techno-economic assessment of installing CO 2 capture at Coal Creek Station suggested that, when using a standard monoethanolamine (MEA)-based solution with simple heat integration, the energy penalty to net generation would be 34%. The bulk of this was due to steam losses for regenerating solvent, followed by parasitic electrical demand for CO 2 compression and then by increased parasitic load for pushing flue gas through the absorber column. These demands could be decreased with a more advanced solvent that exhibits lower heat of regeneration and lower pressure drop than does a simple MEA solution. Further energy could be saved with more thorough heat integration to recover useful energy from the steam used for solvent regeneration. Installing a WESP was predicted to increase the cost of electricity by nearly $5/MWh. This would become cost-effective if solvent losses were roughly 10 times the baseline estimate when not using a WESP but could be returned to baseline by installing the WESP. Piping CO 2 for storage in more favorable geology could help with carbon capture and storage economics. Although storing off-site would necessitate construction of a CO 2 transport pipeline, the cost of this pipeline might be more than offset by reducing the number of wells required, the depths of the wells required, and the electrical demand for the CO 2 compressor. Additional factors that favor off-site storage costs include smaller expected CO 2 plume sizes, which translates to less monitoring and fewer landowner agreements. More detailed assessment of the specific geology in the region under and around Coal Creek Station would be needed to accurately assess the costs and benefits of different storage site options. This subtask was cofunded through the Energy & Environmental Research Center–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission.

Strege, Joshua↗

ARCUS Vertical-Axis Wind Turbine (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

While land-based wind energy has become economically competitive with traditional energy generation sources in the U.S., offshore wind is not. For floating offshore wind this difference is even more substantial where the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is projected to be around 3-5 times more expensive than land-based wind. The turbine capital costs represent around 50% of the LCOE for land-based wind sites, but the increased system costs for floating offshore wind reduce this to 20%. The platform and mooring costs are the single largest contributor to the LCOE for floating offshore wind where their mass must counteract the overturning moment caused by the turbine’s thrust force. Despite the high costs of the platform and relatively low cost of the turbine, current offshore wind turbines are designed essentially the same as for land-based sites. Reducing the LCOE is the greatest challenge to realize the benefits of sustained development of floating offshore wind in the U.S. Reducing the complicated system costs of floating offshore wind will enable the industry to continue to grow and outpace current projections if reduced cost curves can be reached. The ideal wind energy system would remove all mass and cost that is not directly capturing energy from the wind. For floating offshore wind energy systems, this objective is even more significant as increased mass above the water level must be supported by larger and more expensive floating platforms. For this reason, vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) are ideal for floating offshore sites and have several advantages over horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs) at this scale. Large VAWTs offer opportunities for improved energy capture over HAWTs as single units and with reduced wind plant aerodynamic losses through enhanced wake recovery. Additionally, the platform-level placement of the VAWT drivetrain greatly reduces the demands placed on the floating platform and its mass and cost. The ARCUS vertical-axis wind turbine concept (U.S. 11,421,650 B2) is an iteration beyond traditional Darrieus-type VAWTs that replaces the rigid tower with blades that are bent into shape and held in place with tensioned center supports, like a bow. The ARCUS design has been shown to further decrease the VAWT rotor mass properties, with a 50% reduction over traditional Darrieus VAWTs quantified in the ATLANTIS program. The ARCUS VAWT’s efficient use of material for the rotor and turbine support structures combined with its lowered center of gravity enables a tension-leg platform (TLP) with simplified installation procedures. TLPs have been an emerging platform architecture in the Oil and Gas industry and demonstrated to have the lowest hull mass requirements while maintaining stability with minimal roll and pitch deflections in operation. A 22 MW ARCUS turbine has been designed with a three-column TLP that enables quayside integration of the turbine while maintaining system stability during tow-out and installation and having optimal mass and cost properties. A comprehensive analysis shows the optimal ARCUS TLP system design minimizes LCOE through efficient material usage and increased energy capture to yield a competitive LCOE estimate of $\$$55/MWh. A comparison with a reference HAWT, having the same swept area, quantifies the advantages that helped to produce this improved LCOE for the ARCUS concept: (1) 30% reduction in total turbine mass, (2) 70% reduction in turbine center of gravity, and (3) 45% increase in energy production over what is optimal for a HAWT. Intellectual property has been generated through the ATLANTIS program providing opportunities to further reduce the LCOE and improve the performance of the ARCUS turbine and TLP system, expanding the list of innovations to support commercial development of the ARCUS concept.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

R&D to Ensure a Scientific Basis for Qualification Tests and Standards (Final Report)

Project return on investment in a photovoltaic (PV) system depends increasingly on maintaining high energy yields, and the system lifetime is a major factor in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Thus, the rate of PV deployment and the success of these assets depends upon reliable long-term power generation. The overarching objective of this program is to improve photovoltaic (PV) module reliability via development of tests and standards. Where reliability problems or risk are discovered, we can design tests to ensure that these liabilities don't affect future generations of products. Customers can use these tests to understand which products are susceptible to certain degradation mechanisms, and manufacturers can use the tests to design unwanted characteristics out of their products. The work under this program identifies PV reliability needs, performs characterization that provides scientific understanding of targeted degradation mechanisms, and translates those data into practical and predictive test protocols and standards. Major accomplishments include: A model for polarization-type potential induced degradation (PID-p) was developed and validated against experimental data. NREL is currently leading a new edition of IEC 62804-1 for PID detection. PID-p can cause large losses in current and voltage for some module designs on cloudy days. Finite element modeling (FEM) and experiment was used to determine when cells crack in a module. It was shown that cells in landscape orientation are much more likely to crack than those on portrait orientation. Shortly thereafter, the first products with portrait-oriented cells were introduced. Studies of how to test for light and elevated temperature degradation (LeTID) culminated with the publication of IEC TS 63342. Software to predict the progression of LeTID was developed, validated, and made publicly available. Field validated tests and international standards for durability of PV module coatings abrasion, backsheets, and encapsulants were developed. Examples are IEC 62788-1-1, IEC 62788-2 ED2, IEC TS 62788-7-2, IEC 62788-7-3 ED1, IEC 63209-2. NREL led the development a high-temperature testing technical specification, and published guidelines that enable installers to determine whether higher-temperature testing is needed, simply based on location and mounting configuration. In a number of our case studies, variations in the bills of materials or workmanship have been associated with variations in reliability. These observations emphasize the importance of quality assurance to reliability. A framework for criticality (i.e. Pareto) analysis was developed and published. The framework helps us and other researchers determine what problems should be addressed for reliability research to have the biggest industry impact. NREL continues to participate actively in international standards development and stakeholder engagement activities, including organizing an annual PV Reliability Workshop. These activities are important for ensuring we address issues that are relevant and timely, and that we convey our results to those who may benefit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Distribution Grid Impact Study in Highland Park, Michigan: Understanding Rooftop Solar, Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage, Electric Vehicle Charging, and Building Electrification [Slides]

Through the Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) Pilot, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) engaged the Highland Park Stakeholder Coalition to scope four technical assistance work areas to address their energy needs and goals. This slide deck addresses the highlighted tasks under work area "B" related to policy analysis, due diligence, and case studies for removing barriers and providing best practices for local clean energy development. Highland Park community members face frequent, long-duration power interruptions due largely to the aging distribution system serving the area and the legacy design standards used in its construction. While degrading physical infrastructure such as poles, crossarms, and transformers can result in this substandard reliability, another notable characteristic of this legacy system is the lower, 4.8 kV, voltage class. This is a legacy construction standard which many utilities, DTE included, are phasing out in favor of higher, 15 or 25 kV, voltage classes instead. The existing 4.8 kV distribution system serving Highland Park may limit significant adoptions of clean-energy technologies like high percentages of building electrification or electric vehicle adoption. The following analysis seeks to quantify these limitations under a variety of clean-energy technology adoption scenarios. It compares the overall system risks of the present system to those of a hypothetical, upgraded 13.2 kV system, using NREL-developed risk metrics and offers upgrade cost considerations. The legacy 4.8 kV voltage class serving Highland park is not, as we have modeled it, a major limitation to the widespread adoption of cost-optimal rooftop solar and/or behind-the-meter energy storage. Within our modeling framework, these technologies namely impact secondary, low-voltage assets, which may be remedied without the need for a system-wide upgrade to a 13.2 kV voltage class. Our model of the current 4.8kV system indicates it is not capable of supporting community-wide electrification efforts. Widespread building electrification, and the resulting large increase in wintertime load, dramatically increases the prevalence of voltage violations and thermal overloading on the current 4.8 kV distribution system. These impacts illustrate the need for system-wide upgrades to a 13.2 kV voltage class to accommodate these technologies. Low to Moderate DER adoption does not adversely impact the grid but does improve undervoltage and asset overloading issues. However, these benefits are insufficient to defer grid upgrades. Higher DER penetration is shown to increase overvoltage and asset overloading in future electrification scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Northwest Combined Heat and Power Technical Assistance Partnership: Final Scientific/Technical Report

During the years of 2018 through 2023, The Washington State University Energy Program (WSU EP) operated the Northwest Combined Heat and Power Technical Assistance Partnership under contract to the US Department of Energy’s Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO), a part of DOE’s larger Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. This contract provided direction and funding for providing technical outreach, information and technical/economic analysis services in support of expanding development of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) over a four state region in the Pacific Northwest. The states served included Alaska, Idaho, Oregon and Washington. During the duration of this contract, the WSU EP delivered performed specific assigned tasks and provided services of various generally prescribed types, with the overall goal of increasing adoption of CHP as an efficient heat and power supply in the region. Indications – though not formally evaluated to our knowledge – are that this goal was achieved. Over many years, the WSU team has provided support for CHP developments in these states under similar previous Department of Energy contracts, and many such projects have been built. While the early-phase outreach, education and techno-economic assessments that the NW CHP TAP provides rarely immediately result in project construction, there is no doubt that the WSU EP team has had substantial influence in the construction of a number of important CHP projects in the region. Examples of projects implemented directly under the current team’s guidance and services during this contract cycle include an 875 kilowatt biomass fueled CHP system installed at the University of Idaho, and 5 megawatt natural gas fueled CHP system at the University of Montana ( UM Breaks Ground on New Power Facility, Slashes Emissions 30% (umt.edu) ). Many other CHP systems recently installed are also either directly or at least partially the result of information and technical services provided by the team. Finally, though much more difficult to quantify and less glamorous, the team has helped countless organizations to understand CHP and determine whether and how CHP may be a fit for them, before they consider paying for engineering services. Whether the ultimate outcome has been to include CHP or not, the expert skills provided by the NW CHP TAP team have provided real value to these organizations considering this relatively complex technology. Over the duration of the contract our team provided 71 Initial Technical Assessments and 17 Advanced Technical Assessments; 53 End-User Engagements and 33 Stakeholder Engagements of various types; 42 Technical Profiles (Project Profiles, Program Profiles and Policy Profiles), and produced 14 technical articles for the Department of Energy. Unfortunately, these quantities provide no measure of the value that the team has provided. Only our clients can judge that, and we are confident that they are pleased with the benefits we have offered them.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Multidimensional perspectives of geo-epidemiology: from interdisciplinary learning and research to cost–benefit oriented decision-making

Research typically promotes two types of outcomes (inventions and discoveries), which induce a virtuous cycle: something suspected or desired (not previously demonstrated) may become known or feasible once a new tool or procedure is invented and, later, the use of this invention may discover new knowledge. Research also promotes the opposite sequence—from new knowledge to new inventions. This bidirectional process is observed in geo-referenced epidemiology—a field that relates to but may also differ from spatial epidemiology. Geo-epidemiology encompasses several theories and technologies that promote inter/transdisciplinary knowledge integration, education, and research in population health. Based on visual examples derived from geo-referenced studies on epidemics and epizootics, this report demonstrates that this field may extract more (geographically related) information than simple spatial analyses, which then supports more effective and/or less costly interventions. Actual (not simulated) bio-geo-temporal interactions (never captured before the emergence of technologies that analyze geo-referenced data, such as geographical information systems) can now address research questions that relate to several fields, such as Network Theory. Thus, a new opportunity arises before us, which exceeds research: it also demands knowledge integration across disciplines as well as novel educational programs which, to be biomedically and socially justified, should demonstrate cost-effectiveness. Grounded on many bio-temporal-georeferenced examples, this report reviews the literature that supports this hypothesis: novel educational programs that focus on geo-referenced epidemic data may help generate cost-effective policies that prevent or control disease dissemination.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Application of Raman Spectroscopy to Determine Uranium Content in ADUN Solution

The work presented in this report is part of the ongoing efforts to address the nuclear material control and accounting needs for advanced reactor fuel fabrication facilities. This work was supported by the Materials Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) program under the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy‘s Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain program. The activities and engagements under the MPACT program are designed to support a robust US civilian nuclear energy enterprise. In the work described in this report, we supported MPACT objectives by developing measurement techniques that could be used for material accounting and process monitoring and by working with industry partners to identify existing gaps and areas for improvement. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been working with commercial tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel fabricators such as Standard Nuclear to develop technology for rapid and cost-effective uranium content assessment. This work has focused on demonstrating advanced measurement techniques (e.g., Raman spectroscopy) that can be used for rapid, reliable, and cost-effective routine measurements of uranium content in feed solutions and liquid waste streams as well as for monitoring in-line process measurements and product streams. Specifically, this report explores techniques for accurately determining uranium content in acid-deficient uranyl nitrate (ADUN) solutions and detecting low uranium concentrations in ammonia solutions. Developing such measurement techniques will benefit TRISO fuel fabrication facilities, facilities involved in other parts of the fuel cycle that require online monitoring of aqueous solutions, and potentially molten salt fuel reactors. This work supports developing Raman spectroscopy procedures to determine uranium concentrations in ADUN solutions, which are used as feedstock in the sol–gel process for creating TRISO fuel. Some additional benefits of using Raman spectroscopy for uranium quantification in fabrication facilities include enabling online monitoring of the chemical process, which would provide near real-time feedback; eliminating the need for sample transfers, preparation, or dilution; providing nondestructive measurements; and user friendliness. In this fiscal year, FY25, we determined the identity of the unknown Raman band at approximately 853 cm−1 that was discovered in ADUN Raman spectra in FY24, created calibration curves and determined uranium concentrations of two ADUN solutions, and compared the Raman results to results obtained from inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and Davies–Gray titration. Furthermore, we have identified focus areas for experimentation in future fiscal years. A key result is that the accuracy of using Raman can provide accuracy comparable to destructive analysist techniques, With a well-developed calibration curve, using standards and a large number of samples (more than five samples), uncertainty on the order of 1%–3% is achievable. Given that the uncertainties achieved by Raman spectroscopy were on the order of the uncertainties achieved using ICP-MS, we conclude that with a well-developed procedure Raman spectroscopy can be used to determine uranium concentrations in ADUN solutions for NMC&A applications. The benefits of such an approach are that the time and effort will be less than that of comparable destructive analysis techniques, with approximately the same level of technical expertise. This will be attractive to operators of fuel fabrication facilities as it will lower costs and improve efficiencies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Low-Temperature Plasma Treatment for Enhanced Recovery of Highly Valued Critical REEs from Coal (Final Report)

The principle objective of this project was to develop a novel process flowsheet using low-temperature plasma treatment (LTP) integrated with conventional hydrometallurgical processes to recover rare earth elements (REEs), especially highly valued REEs (i.e. scandium and critical REEs), from coal and coal byproducts. LTP treatment was used to pretreat the solid feed material prior to leaching in an effort to improve the leaching characteristics of the REEs and potentially reduce acid consumption. Initially, a detailed experimental program was performed on a laboratory LTP furnace to identify a set of process parameter values to be used for assessing the enhanced leaching performance achieved on four specific gravity fractions of West Kentucky No. 13 and Fire Clay coarse coal refuse materials. High-temperature oxidation (HTO)) was also evaluated as a means for improving REE leachability on the same fractions of both coal sources. The lixiviants used to assess leachability improvements included: i) untreated water, ii) 0.1 M ammonium sulfate solution and iii) 1.2 M sulfuric acid solution at a temperature of 75°C. The laboratory data was used to develop multiple process flow sheets using HTO only to produce a rare earth oxide mix concentrate or utilizing both LTP and HTO treatment processes to generate a high purity heavy REO mix concentrate and a light REO mix concentrate. A techno-economic analysis was performed on each circuit. Low-temperature plasma oxidation was found to enhance REE leaching characteristics for all specific gravity (SG) fractions of the West Kentucky No. 13 coarse refuse material. The leaching recovery improvement was preferentially achieved for the heavy REEs with higher values obtained when treating the lower density fraction material. For example, the leaching recovery for the heavy REEs in the untreated 1.6 SG Float fraction material was 8% in a 0.1 M ammonium sulfate solution. After LTP treatment for 32 hours, heavy REE recovery increased to 33%. The corresponding recovery value for the light REEs was 10%. These findings indicate a strong affinity of the heavy REEs with the organic material, which is the component being reduced in content during the LTP treatment. Scanning electron micrographs showed the development of a honeycomb structure with increased LTP treatment with higher surface area as confirmed from BET measurements. Higher surface area promotes improved leaching efficiency due to enhance chemical interactions. When using 1.2 M sulfuric acid, the LTP treatment was found to provide a heavy REE recovery increase from 23% to 53% for the 1.6 SG Float fraction which corresponded to an ash content increase from around 20% to 35%. However, LTP treatment provided no improvement in leaching characteristic for the 2.2 SG sink material in the acid solution, which was likely due to the low organic content. The LTP treatment of the Fire Clay SG fractions provided no improvement in REE leaching characteristic, which may be due to the association with REE minerals such as monazite and REE-associated mineral matter such as clays. High temperature oxidation using temperatures in the range of 600-750OC was found to significantly enhance the leaching characteristics of both the light and heavy REEs for all density fractions in both coarse coal refuse materials. Generally, the increase in light REE recovery for the West Kentucky material was from 15% for the untreated material to 90% for the HTO treated material at 600°C. Recovery values dropped significantly when using temperatures below 600°C and above 750°C. The impact of the excessive temperatures was most likely a result of sintering. For the heavy REEs, HTO significantly improved recovery in the lighter SG fractions, which may be due to an affinity with the organic content. Only limited heavy REE recovery improvement was obtained for the denser SG fractions. Another benefit of HTO is the conversion of calcium-based minerals to a very soluble calcium oxide, which is removable using a mild acid solution, and the conversion of Fe minerals to relatively insoluble minerals such as hematite and magnetite. The pregnant leaching solution produced from the leaching of all SG fractions obtained from both coal sources was treated using two stages of solvent extraction procedurally modeling a rougher-cleaner circuit followed by oxalic acid precipitation. Rare earth oxide products having a purity greater than 97% was produced from nearly all of the SG fractions. A novel process flowsheet was developed based on the selective leaching of heavy REEs that was made possible through LTP treatment of West Kentucky No. 13 coarse refuse followed by salt leaching. In the flowsheet, coal refuse material is ground to a top size of 1mm and then treated by LTP. The treated material is mixed into a 0.1 M ammonium sulfate solution and then filtered to produce a heavy REE enriched pregnant leach solution. The heavy REEs are concentrated by two stages of selective precipitation to produce a heavy REE mix oxalate and then roasted to obtain a heavy REO mix concentrate. The solid residues remaining after salt leaching is dried and then subjected to HTO treatment followed by concentration using selective precipitation and roasting to produce a light REO mix concentrate. An alternative circuit was developed using HTO treatment only to treat 100% of the coarse refuse material followed by selective precipitation and roasting to generate a high purity REO mix product. A techno-economic analysis performed for the treatment of West Kentucky No. 13 and Fire Clay coarse refuse based on a hypothetical 500-tph plant revealed that the net present value for all scenarios was significantly negative. Primary reasons include: i) a substantial decrease in the basket value of the final product relative to the feed and ii) high chemical costs relative to the amount of product generated. The basket value reduction was primarily due to little to no scandium recovery due to poor leaching characteristics when using low acid concentrations as necessitated by the low feed grades. Operating costs were primarily influenced by the chemical costs relative to the kilograms of concentrate produced and feed grade. For the Fire Clay coarse refuse material, the total operating cost was estimated to be $354 per kg of REO produced which was higher than the basket value of the REO product ($276/kg). Approximately 37% of the total cost was the sulfuric acid used during the leaching process. A comparative analysis performed to assess the economic viability of using low-temperature plasma furnaces found that market value enhancement for the generation of both heavy REO and light REO concentrates will be needed in addition to significant technology advancements to reduce the cost of plasma furnaces.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Initial Efforts Organizing WPNCS SG-8: Preservation of Expert Knowledge and Judgement Applied to Criticality Benchmarks

The Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) under the guidance of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) has over 20 years of experience addressing concerns related to static and transient configurations encountered within the nuclear fuel cycle: fuel fabrication, transportation, reprocessing, storage, and geological disposal. One of the cornerstone activities of the WPNCS is the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP), which was established to identify a comprehensive set of criticality benchmark data, evaluate the data, including quantification of overall uncertainties; compile the data into a standardized format, perform sample calculations utilizing modern nuclear data sets and codes utilized in nuclear criticality safety, and formally document the work into a single source of verified benchmark data. Annually, members of the ICSBEP Technical Review Group (TRG) contribute evaluated benchmark data that undergoes comprehensive technical review prior to publication in the ICSBEP Handbook. In the years since the ICSBEP was established, there has been much work to prepare benchmark data to support validation activities in nuclear criticality safety. The 2020 edition of the ICSBEP Handbook contains acceptable benchmark specifications for 5,053 critical, subcritical, or near-critical configurations in 582 benchmark evaluations. Modern benchmark development benefits from decades of experienced international participants, a well-established handbook format, supplementary guides to deal with uncertainty quantification, and a comprehensive review process based upon independent reviews from international experts. The ICSBEP Handbook also contains 838 configurations deemed unacceptable to support criticality safety efforts. They are recorded, with the reasoning for their rejection, to preserve the experimental data, prevent reevaluation of data that are incomplete or contain known errors, and/or to potentially allow future reevaluation of the experiment pending the identification of sufficient data to resolve identified inconsistencies and errors. Users of the ICSBEP Handbook today might notice that the rigor and quality of modern criticality safety benchmarks is much greater than those prepared within the initial decade of the project. Benchmarks with 1s uncertainties in k eff greater than 1% were traditionally rejected unless they were identified as unique experiment types that encompassed materials, fuels, or designs not available from other benchmark experiments. However, benchmarks developed using modern experimental techniques and practices typically have uncertainties on the order of a few tenths of a percent. There have been ongoing efforts to improve the overall quality of previously published benchmark evaluations. Seventy-eight evaluations, containing approximately 600 configurations, have been revised just within the past decade. An additional eleven benchmarks are under revision for updated release in the 2020 edition of the ICSBEP Handbook. If some of the historic benchmarks were resubmitted in their current form to the TRG today, they would be rejected due to lack of data, missing components in the uncertainty analysis, or incomplete benchmark model development. The use of historic criticality safety benchmarks that underestimate the total uncertainty, lack properly quantified biases, or provide inadequate benchmark specifications do not sufficiently support modern criticality safety and nuclear data efforts. Although the ICSBEP Handbook is recognized by regulating bodies to support criticality safety, users are required to justify their reasons to ignore historic benchmark data and include additional safety margins within their designs. Discussions were held at the WPNCS 23rd Annual Meeting in September 2019 regarding the aforementioned issues. The resultant decision was to establish Subgroup 8 (SG-8): Preservation of Expert Knowledge and Judgement Applied to Criticality Benchmarks. The current activities of SG-8 are discussed herein.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗