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DOE OSTI2025

Global teleconnections influencing large-scale drought in the United States using SVDI

Understanding recent large-scale drought patterns and the mechanisms producing extreme drought events is vital for future drought forecasts and understanding future drought risks. Increasingly, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been used as an important measure of evaporative demand and proxy for drought detection. In this study, VPD is used to calculate the new Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI) with NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data. Previous studies have shown that SVDI accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts in the United States (U.S). In the present study, SVDI is now used to identify large-scale drought patterns between 1980 and 2021 and drought variability driven by selected global teleconnections originating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Spatial drought characteristics were extracted from SVDI using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Then a k-means clustering algorithm was applied to both EOF principal components and primary teleconnections, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to identify drought events driven by the Pacific Ocean. Results show that the SVDI is useful in evaluating large-scale drought variability in the U.S. related to global teleconnections, and that mechanisms influencing summer drought patterns in the Western and Southwestern U.S. are driven by a tropical-extratropical interactions originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean related to ENSO dynamics with interdecadal variability modulated by PDO. The large-scale droughts in the Central and Southern U.S., like those in 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, are driven by the North Pacific Ocean warm pool during a strong negative PDO, which subsequently influenced variability in the Bermuda-Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean. In summer 2011, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened, reducing the onshore winds and moisture transport along the eastern Gulf of Mexico and contributing to ongoing drought in the region. The Northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased between 1980 and 2021. In conclusion, as SSTs continue to rise in the Northern Pacific Ocean, one consequence of the coupled North Pacific warm pool and atmospheric dynamics, is to increase summer drought variability over a large region in the southern and midwestern U.S. under global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Remote Sensing of Live Fuel Moisture for Wildfires Using SMAP Satellite Observations

Live Fuel Moisture (LFM) is a critical parameter for wildfire risk assessment, traditionally measured by labor-intensive field sampling. However, sampled LFM data are influenced by site-specific factors, such as local vegetation types and plant traits, and are often collected retrospectively after wildfire events, making it difficult to obtain pre-fire data for predictive applications. Here, we evaluate the relationship between LFM and Vegetation Water Content (VWC) and Soil Moisture (SM) retrieved from SMAP L-band brightness temperature using the Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) approach. The MEP-retrieved VWC exhibited strong correlation with in situ measurements of LFM ( r > 0.6) in the Western U.S. The integration of high-resolution vegetation coverage data enhances the detection of sub-grid vegetation heterogeneity. This study demonstrates the operational potential of remote sensing derived VWC as a scalable proxy of LFM, supporting its application in regional assessment of wildfire risk.

Cho, Kyeungwoo [Georgia Institute of Technology, A↗

DOE OSTI2022

Confronting the water potential information gap

Water potential directly controls the function of leaves, roots and microbes, and gradients in water potential drive water flows throughout the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum. Notwithstanding its clear relevance for many ecosystem processes, soil water potential is rarely measured in situ, and plant water potential observations are generally discrete, sparse, and not yet aggregated into accessible databases. These gaps limit our conceptual understanding of biophysical responses to moisture stress and inject large uncertainty into hydrologic and land-surface models. Here, we outline the conceptual and predictive gains that could be made with more continuous and discoverable observations of water potential in soils and plants. We discuss improvements to sensor technologies that facilitate in situ characterization of water potential, as well as strategies for building new networks that aggregate water potential data across sites. Here, we end by highlighting novel opportunities for linking more representative site-level observations of water potential to remotely sensed proxies. Together, these considerations offer a road map for clearer links between ecohydrological processes and the water potential gradients that have the ‘potential’ to substantially reduce conceptual and modelling uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Water-stress-induced breakdown of carbon–water relations: indicators from diurnal FLUXNET patterns

Understanding of terrestrial carbon and water cycles is currently hampered by an uncertainty in how to capture the large variety of plant responses to drought. In FLUXNET, the global network of CO 2 and H 2 O flux observations, many sites do not uniformly report the ancillary variables needed to study drought response physiology. To this end, we outline two data-driven indicators based on diurnal energy, water, and carbon flux patterns derived directly from the eddy covariance data and based on theorized physiological responses to hydraulic and non-stomatal limitations.Hydraulic limitations (i.e. intra-plant limitations on water movement) are proxied using the relative diurnal centroid ( C ET * ), whichmeasures the degree to which the flux of evapotranspiration (ET) is shiftedtoward the morning. Non-stomatal limitations (e.g. inhibitions of biochemical reactions, RuBisCO activity, and/or mesophyll conductance) are characterized by the Diurnal Water–Carbon Index (DWCI), which measures the degree of coupling between ET and gross primary productivity (GPP) within each day.As a proof of concept we show the response of the metrics at six European sites during the 2003 heat wave event, showing a varied response of morning shifts and decoupling. Globally, we found indications of hydraulic limitations in the form of significantly high frequencies of morning-shifted days in dry/Mediterranean climates and savanna/evergreen plant functional types (PFTs), whereas high frequencies of decoupling were dominated by dry climates and grassland/savanna PFTs indicating a prevalence of non-stomatal limitations in these ecosystems. Wholly, both the diurnal centroid and DWCI were associated with high net radiation and low latent energy typical of drought. Using three water use efficiency (WUE) models, we found the mean differences between expected and observed WUE to be - 0.09 to0.44 µ mol mmol -1 and - 0.29 to - 0.40 µ mol mmol -1 for decoupled and morning-shifted days, respectively, compared to mean differences - 1.41 to - 1.42 µ mol mmol -1 in dry conditions, suggesting that morning shifts/hydraulic responses are associated with an increase in WUE,whereas decoupling/non-stomatal limitations are not.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative Performance Assessment of Proxy Apps and Parents (Report for ECP Proxy App Project Milestone ADCD-504-28)

The ECP Proxy Application Project has an annual milestone to assess the state of ECP proxy applications and their role in the overall ECP ecosystem. Our FY22 March/April milestone (ADCD- 504-28) proposed to: Assess the fidelity of proxy applications compared to their respective parents in terms of kernel and I/O behavior, and predictability. Similarity techniques will be applied for quantitative comparison of proxy/parent kernel behavior. MACSio evaluation will continue and support for OpenPMD backends will be explored. The execution time predictability of proxy apps with respect to their parents will be explored through a carefully designed scaling study and code comparisons. Note that in this FY, we also have quantitative assessment milestones that are due in September and are, therefore, not included in the description above or in this report. Another report on these deliverables will be generated and submitted upon completion of these milestones. To satisfy this milestone, the following specific tasks were completed: Study the ability of MACSio to represent I/O workloads of adaptive mesh codes. Re-define the performance counter groups for contemporary Intel and IBM platforms to better match specific hardware components and to better align across platforms (make cross-platform comparison more accurate). Perform cosine similarity study based on the new performance counter groups on the Intel and IBM P9 platforms. Perform detailed analysis of performance counter data to accurately average and align the data to maintain phases across all executions and develop methods to reduce the set of collected performance counters used in cosine similarity analysis. Apply a quantitative similarity comparison between proxy and parent CPU kernels. Perform scaling studies to understand the accuracy of predictability of the parent performance using its respective proxy application. This report presents highlights of these efforts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Coincident aboveground and belowground autonomous monitoring to quantify covariability in permafrost, soil, and vegetation properties in Arctic tundra

Coincident monitoring of the spatiotemporal distribution of and interactions between land, soil, and permafrost properties is important for advancing our understanding of ecosystem dynamics. In this paper, a novel monitoring strategy was developed to quantify complex Arctic ecosystem responses to the seasonal freeze-thaw-growing season conditions. The strategy exploited autonomous measurements obtained through electrical resistivity tomography to monitor soil properties, pole-mounted optical cameras to monitor vegetation dynamics, point probes to measure soil temperature, and periodic manual measurements of thaw layer thickness, snow thickness, and soil dielectric permittivity. The spatially and temporally dense monitoring data sets revealed several insights about tundra system behavior at a site located near Barrow, AK. In the active layer, the soil electrical conductivity (a proxy for soil water content) indicated an increasing positive correlation with the green chromatic coordinate (a proxy for vegetation vigor) over the growing season, with the strongest correlation (R = 0.89) near the typical peak of the growing season. Soil conductivity and green chromatic coordinate also showed significant positive correlations with thaw depth, which is influenced by soil and surface properties. In the permafrost, soil electrical conductivity revealed annual variations in solute concentration and unfrozen water content, even at temperatures well below 0°C in saline permafrost. These conditions may contribute to an acceleration of long-term thaw in Coastal permafrost regions. Finally, demonstration of this first aboveground and belowground geophysical monitoring approach within an Arctic ecosystem illustrates its significant potential to remotely “visualize” permafrost, soil, and vegetation ecosystem codynamics in high resolution over field relevant scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Constraining the instantaneous aerosol influence on cloud albedo

Much of the uncertainty in estimates of the anthropogenic forcing of climate change comes from uncertainties in the instantaneous effect of aerosols on cloud albedo, known as the Twomey effect or the radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci), a component of the total or effective radiative forcing. Because aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei can have a strong influence on the cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ), previous studies have used the sensitivity of the N d to aerosol properties as a constraint on the strength of the RFaci. However, recent studies have suggested that relationships between aerosol and cloud properties in the present-day climate may not be suitable for determining the sensitivity of the N d to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations. Using an ensemble of global aerosol–climate models, this study demonstrates how joint histograms between N d and aerosol properties can account for many of the issues raised by previous studies. It shows that if the anthropogenic contribution to the aerosol is known, the RFaci can be diagnosed to within 20% of its actual value. Furthermore, the accuracy of different aerosol proxies for diagnosing the RFaci is investigated, confirming that using the aerosol optical depth significantly underestimates the strength of the aerosol–cloud interactions in satellite data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Insight-Centric Paradigm for Data Reduction and Inference Speed Improvement at the Scurry Area Canyon Reef Operator’s Committee (SACROC) Unit

The poster presents the work conducted under SMART focusing on using insight-centric approach to design a meaningful proxy for machine learning. Domain insights are critical not just in understanding the prediction results but also in designing the model. This study demonstrated that a single meaningful scaler (as an extreme case) can effectively replace full-size 3D geologic properties. The model's accuracies are on par with other models, and it is the fastest model to predict all test cases, 5,000 times faster than traditional simulations.

Shih, Chung Yan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating ORNL’s HPC and Neutron Facilities with a Performance-Portable CPU/GPU Ecosystem

We explore the development of a performance-portable CPU/GPU ecosystem to integrate two of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) largest scientific instruments, the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing facility and the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS), both of which are housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We select a relevant data reduction workflow use-case to obtain the differential scattering cross-section from data collected by SNS’s CORELLI and TOPAZ instruments. We compare the current CPU-only production implementation using the Garnet Python multiprocess package based on the Mantid C++ framework against our proposed CPU/GPU implementation that uses the LLVM-based, just-in-time Julia scientific language and the JACC.jl performance-portable package. Two proxy apps were developed: (i) an app for extracting relevant Mantid kernels (MDNorm) in C++ and (ii) the Julia MiniVATES.jl miniapp. We present performance results for NVIDIA A100 and AMD MI100 GPUs and AMD EPYC 7513 and 7662 CPUs. The results provide insights for future generations of data reduction software that can embrace performance portability for an integrated research infrastructure across DOE’s experimental and computational facilities.

Hahn, Steven↗

DOE OSTI2019

Characterizing the relationship between satellite phenology and pollen season: A case study of birch

Pollen released by vegetation in urban and surrounding rural areas is an important risk factor for respiratory allergies. Mapping the onset, duration, and severity of pollen is difficult, because of insufficient stations and/or monitoring networks at the national and international levels. To address this challenge, we evaluated the spatiotemporal relationship between satellite derived vegetation phenology and in-situ station derived information of pollen season during 2001–2015 at five stations in Canada. First, we calculated annual indicators of start of season (SOS) and start of pollen season (SPS) for birch from Landsat time series and pollen concentration data, respectively, at the five stations. Second, we explored the relationship between derived indicators of SOS and SPS and investigated the scale effect on the relationship. Our results indicate the Landsat based SOS is a good proxy for the indicator of SPS in the birch dominated area. The mean SOS and SPS in the study period are close (within 2.7?days) across the five stations. The interannual variability of SOS and SPS suggests the satellite derived phenology indicator can capture well the dynamics of pollen season in spring. Our analysis also indicates that the annual SOS at a finer resolution (30?m) is more consistent with SPS as compared to the indicators derived from coarser resolution satellite observations. This study shows the potential of using fine spatial resolution satellite data (e.g., Landsat) to derive the pollen season indicators, which is important for predicting pollen season severity and risk, and assessment of their impacts on respiratory allergies in urban domains.

Landsat, Phenology, Spring leaf unfolding, Pollen,↗

DOE OSTI2021

Jet-associated deuteron production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ =13 TeV

Deuteron production in high-energy collisions is sensitive to the space–time evolution of the collision system, and is typically described by a coalescence mechanism. For the first time, we present results on jet-associated deuteron production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ =13 TeV, providing an opportunity to test the established picture for deuteron production in events with a hard scattering. Using a trigger particle with high transverse-momentum (p T > GeV/c) as a proxy for the presence of a jet at midrapidity, we observe a measurable population of deuterons being produced around the jet proxy. The associated deuteron yield measured in a narrow angular range around the trigger particle differs by 2.4–4.8 standard deviations from the uncorrelated background. The data are described by PYTHIA model calculations featuring baryon coalescence.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

X-ray chemical imaging for assessing redox microsites within soils and sediments

Redox reactions underlie several biogeochemical processes and are typically spatiotemporally heterogeneous in soils and sediments. However, redox heterogeneity has yet to be incorporated into mainstream conceptualizations and modeling of soil biogeochemistry. Anoxic microsites, a defining feature of soil redox heterogeneity, are non-majority oxygen depleted zones in otherwise oxic environments. Neglecting to account for anoxic microsites can generate major uncertainties in quantitative assessments of greenhouse gas emissions, C sequestration, as well as nutrient and contaminant cycling at the ecosystem to global scales. However, only a few studies have observed/characterized anoxic microsites in undisturbed soils, primarily, because soil is opaque and microsites require µm-cm scale resolution over cm-m scales. Consequently, our current understanding of microsite characteristics does not support model parameterization. To resolve this knowledge gap, we demonstrate through this proof-of-concept study that X-ray fluorescence (XRF) 2D mapping can reliably detect, quantify, and provide basic redox characterization of anoxic microsites using solid phase “forensic” evidence. First, we tested and developed a systematic data processing approach to eliminate false positive redox microsites, i.e., artefacts, detected from synchrotron-based multiple-energy XRF 2D mapping of Fe (as a proxy of redox-sensitive elements) in Fe-“rich” sediment cores with artificially injected microsites. Then, spatial distribution of Fe II and Fe III species from full, natural soil core slices (over cm-m lengths/widths) were mapped at 1–100 µm resolution. These investigations revealed direct evidence of anoxic microsites in predominantly oxic soils such as from an oak savanna and toeslope soil of a mountainous watershed, where anaerobicity would typically not be expected. We also revealed preferential spatial distribution of redox microsites inside aggregates from oak savanna soils. We anticipate that this approach will advance our understanding of soil biogeochemistry and help resolve “anomalous” occurrences of reduced products in nominally oxic soils.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

Quadri-joint inversion: Method and application to the Big Sky 9C 3D data set in northern Montana

The Kevin Dome [Formula: see text] storage project, located in northern Montana, attempted to characterize the Duperow Formation as a potential long-term storage zone for injected [Formula: see text]. A multicomponent (9C) seismic survey was acquired for the Big Sky Carbon Sequestration Partnership over a portion of the Kevin Dome using P- and S-wave sources. Prestack migrated PP, PS, SH, and SV data sets were generated. We then applied several stratigraphic inversion workflows using one or several kinds of seismic wavefield at the same time resulting in joint inversions of each data set. The aim of our study is to demonstrate the benefits of doing quadri-joint inversion of PP-, PS-, SH-, and SV-wavefields for the recovery of the elastic earth parameters, especially the S-wave impedance and density. These are crucial parameters because they can help determine lithology and porefill in the reservoir characterization workflow. Because the inversion workflow always uses the original seismic data recorded in its own time domain, it is necessary to compute registration laws between PP-PS-, PP-SH-, and PP-SV-wavefields using a time shift computation procedure (warping) based on inverted S-wave impedances from inversion of a single wavefield. This generated a significant improvement over methods that rely on attempting to match trace waveforms that may have a different phase, frequency content, and polarity. Finally, we wanted to investigate the reliability of the quadri-joint inversion results in the Bakken/Banff Formations, which have less lateral geologic variation than the underlying Duperow target. This interval shares many of the geophysical characterization challenges common to shale reservoirs in other North American basins. We computed geomechanical parameters, such as Poisson’s ratio and Young’s modulus, which are a proxy for brittleness. Comparison of these results with independent laboratory measurements in the Bakken interval demonstrates the superiority of the quadri-joint inversion method to the traditional inversion using P-wave data only.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cloud drop number concentrations over the western North Atlantic Ocean: seasonal cycle, aerosol interrelationships, and other influential factors

Cloud drop number concentrations (N d ) over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) are generally highest during the winter (DJF) and lowest in summer (JJA), in contrast to aerosol proxy variables (aerosoloptical depth, aerosol index, surface aerosol mass concentrations, surface cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations) that generally peak inspring (MAM) and JJA with minima in DJF. Using aircraft, satellite remote sensing, ground-based in situ measurement data, and reanalysis data, we characterize factors explaining the divergent seasonal cycles and furthermore probe into factors influencing N d on seasonal timescales. The results can be summarized well by features most pronounced in DJF, including features associated with cold-air outbreak (CAO) conditions such as enhanced values of CAO index, planetary boundary layer height (PBLH),low-level liquid cloud fraction, and cloud-top height, in addition to winds aligned with continental outflow. Data sorted into high- and low-N d days in each season, especially in DJF, revealed that all of these conditions were enhanced on the high-N d days, including reduced sea level pressure and stronger wind speeds. Although aerosols may be more abundant in MAM and JJA, the conditions needed to activate those particles into cloud droplets are weaker than in colder months, which is demonstrated by calculations of the strongest (weakest) aerosol indirect effects in DJF (JJA) based on comparing N d to perturbations in four different aerosol proxy variables (total and sulfate aerosol optical depth, aerosol index, surface mass concentration of sulfate). We used three machine learning models and up to 14 input variables to infer about most influential factors related to N d for DJF and JJA, with the best performance obtained with gradient-boosted regression tree (GBRT) analysis. The model results indicated that cloud fraction was the most important input variable, followed by some combination (depending on season) of CAO index and surface mass concentrations of sulfate and organic carbon. Future work is recommended to further understand aspects uncovered here such as impacts of free tropospheric aerosol entrainment on clouds, degree of boundary layer coupling, wet scavenging, and giant CCN effects on aerosol–N d relationships, updraft velocity, and vertical structure of cloud properties such as adiabaticity that impact the satellite estimation of N d .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

From noise to information: The transfer function formalism for uncertainty quantification in reconstructing the nuclear density

The neutron distribution of neutron-rich nuclei provides critical information on the structure of finite nuclei and neutron stars. Parity violating experiments—such as PREX and CREX—provide a clean and largely model-independent determination of neutron densities. Such experiments, however, are challenging and expensive, which is why sound statistical arguments are required to maximize the information gained. We introduce a new framework, the “transfer function formalism,” aimed at uncertainty quantification, model selection, and experimental design in the context of neutron densities. The transfer functions (TFs) are built analytically by expressing the linear response of the objective function (e.g., χ2) to small perturbations of the data. Using the TF formalism, we are able to analyze the expected overall uncertainty—quantified in terms of bias and variance—of the mean square radius and interior density of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. Using relativistic mean field models as a proxy for the weak-charge density—and assuming that a total of five measurements could be performed on the weak form factor of 48 Ca and 208 Pb—we identify the optimal models and experimental locations that minimize the uncertainty in the extraction of the radius and interior density. We also explore the use of the TF formalism to understand the influence of prior distributions for the model parameters, as well as the optimization of model hyperparameters not constrained by the data. Here,we establish how the choice of experimental locations and the model that is used can have a significant impact on the final uncertainties of the extracted quantities of interest. For challenging experiments such as CREX and PREX, a proper quantification of such uncertainties is critical. We have demonstrated how the TF formalism provides several advantages for this type of analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Spatial Representativeness of Global Flux Tower Eddy-Covariance Measurements Using Data from FLUXNET2015

Large datasets of carbon dioxide, energy, and water fluxes were measured with the eddy-covariance (EC) technique, such as FLUXNET2015. These datasets are widely used to validate remote-sensing products and benchmark models. One of the major challenges in utilizing EC-flux data is determining the spatial extent to which measurements taken at individual EC towers reflect model-grid or remote sensing pixels. To minimize the potential biases caused by the footprint-to-target area mismatch, it is important to use flux datasets with awareness of the footprint. This study analyze the spatial representativeness of global EC measurements based on the open-source FLUXNET2015 data, using the published flux footprint model (SAFE-f). The calculated annual cumulative footprint climatology (ACFC) was overlaid on land cover and vegetation index maps to create a spatial representativeness dataset of global flux towers. The dataset includes the following components: (1) the ACFC contour (ACFCC) data and areas representing 50%, 60%, 70%, and 80% ACFCC of each site, (2) the proportion of each land cover type weighted by the 80% ACFC (ACFCW), (3) the semivariogram calculated using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) considering the 80% ACFCW, and (4) the sensor location bias (SLB) between the 80% ACFCW and designated areas (e.g. 80% ACFCC and window sizes) proxied by NDVI. Finally, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the representativeness of each site from three aspects: (1) the underlying surface cover, (2) the semivariogram, and (3) the SLB between 80% ACFCW and 80% ACFCC, and categorized them into 3 levels. The goal of creating this dataset is to provide data quality guidance for international researchers to effectively utilize the FLUXNET2015 dataset in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Blackcomb2: Hardware-Software Co-design for Nonvolatile Memory in Exascale Systems

The impending shift from DRAM and Flash to fast nonvolatile memory (NVM) provides a game-changing opportunity to rethink traditional system architectures; to address their energy inefficiencies; to leverage the new devices for greater performance; and to exploit the new capability of nonvolatility to enhance system resilience, even in the face of larger system scale and degraded reliability of components. Building on the accomplishments of the Blackcomb Project, funded in 2010, we propose to identify, evaluate, and optimize the most promising NVM hardware and software technologies, which are essential to provide the necessary memory capacity, performance, resilience, and energy efficiency in exascale systems. Capacity and energy are the key drivers. Today's pressing application requirements mandate exascale computing; the datasets and concurrency of these applications demand memory capacity that cannot be met by traditional memory technologies. Although charge-based DRAM will endure, experts foresee only modest DRAM capacity gains. And, as moving data between levels of the hierarchy, and storing and accessing data on disk consumes significant energy, a more energy efficient solution is required. We, therefore, posit that exascale systems will need high density, energy-efficient storage technologies, such as nonvolatile memory for access, transformation, and management of exascale data. To address these issues, in this renewal request, we propose continue the work of our vertically- integrated, focussed team, where our co-design is informed by proxies and interactions with DOE co-design centers. In software, we start by assuming that nonvolatility requires new abstractions and new infrastructure, allowing persistent objects, and delivering performance gains for _le systems and robustness through fast checkpointing. In architecture, we evaluate the tradeoffs of performance and energy by employing a scalable and accurate simulation system to analyze realistic proxy applications. Through this co-design process, we rethink the whole memory architecture, from the cell to the array to the device, with ECC, wearout management, and interfaces. Finally, we provide open-source software models of these NVM-based memory systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

We Just Want to Pump…You Up! Forecasting Grid-Connected Heat Pump Water Heater Energy Savings and Load Shifting Potential for the Southeast U.S.

Heat pump water heaters (HPWH) can achieve energy savings of 60-70% compared to conventional electric-resistance water heaters. However, even with a favorable simple payback period within the typical product lifetime, HPWHs make up only 1% of all electric water heaters sold in the residential sector. Market adoption is challenged, in part, by the lack of effective energy efficiency programs in the U.S. region with the greatest amount of residential electric water heaters. The recent integration of connected functionality into HPWHs offers the capability to shift load without undue negative impact on customers. This capability can provide value to utilities with peak load constraints, motivating them to promote HPWHs for the first time. This paper will present a methodology to forecast connected HPWH energy use and extrapolate load shifting potential for the Southeast U.S. region. The methodology leverages data from a robust connected HPWH field study conducted in the Pacific Northwest. A coefficient of performance (COP) relationship for HPWHs was developed using ambient and inlet water temperature data to forecast HPWH performance on a month-by-month basis. Using the forecasted COP, HPWH operating hours were calculated for meeting load, which serve as the proxy to extrapolate load shifting potential from the Pacific Northwest to the Southeast. As a use case, analytical results are presented for a specific utility. This methodology, in combination with market analysis, facilitates the development of customized energy savings and load shifting forecasts to understand the potential impacts of launching connected HPWH programs in specific utility service territories.

heat pump water heater, energy savings, load shift↗