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DOE OSTI2023

Assessing pore network heterogeneity across multiple scales to inform CO2 injection models

Geologic heterogeneity is a key feature that must be considered when translations of scaled data are performed. This paper presents the assessment of geologic heterogeneity using a multiscale workflow that includes image analysis-based methods coupled with well log analysis to provide data in which fractals and machine learning methods estimate the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage resource potential of a reservoir. The heterogeneity of rock properties of the complex Bell Creek reservoir in Montana, USA, was explored at the pore scale (~nm to mm), core scale (~mm to m), and well scale (~cm to m). The data used in this study included advanced image analysis of micro-CT (computed tomography) images (pore scale), thin sections (pore scale), plugs and core images (core scale) and well logs (well scale). The micro-CT images were segmented using a U-net segmentation approach into objects of pores and grains. Further, the segmented images were reconstructed into subvolumes of different sizes. Physical properties (porosity and permeability) and fractal dimensions were calculated for the various subvolumes, and Lorenz coefficient (Lc) values, a single parameter to describe the degree of heterogeneity within a pay zone section, were calculated from thin-section images and well logs. Porosity and fractal dimension values were used to estimate the 188-µm threshold of representative elementary volume (REV) in this study. Both the Lc and fractal dimension values were found to be negatively correlated. When these two parameters are combined, it is possible to discern differences in the complex porous networks of the samples analyzed in this study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automating NISQ Application Design with Meta Quantum Circuits with Constraints (MQCC)

Near-term intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) computers are likely to have very restricted hardware resources, where precisely controllable qubits are expensive, error-prone, and scarce. Programmers of such computers must therefore balance trade-offs among a large number of (potentially heterogeneous) factors specific to the targeted application and quantum hardware. To assist them, we propose Meta Quantum Circuits with Constraints (MQCC), a meta-programming framework for quantum programs. Programmers express their application as a succinct collection of normal quantum circuits stitched together by a set of (manually or automatically) added meta-level choice variables, whose values are constrained according to a programmable set of quantitative optimization criteria. MQCC’s compiler generates the appropriate constraints and solves them via an SMT solver, producing an optimized, runnable program. We showcase a few MQCC’s applications for its generality including an automatic generation of efficient error syndrome extraction schemes for fault-tolerant quantum error correction with heterogeneous qubits and an approach to writing approximate quantum Fourier transformation and quantum phase estimation that smoothly trades off accuracy and resource use. We also illustrate that MQCC can easily encode prior one-off NISQ application designs-–multi-programming (MP), crosstalk mitigation (CM)—as well as a combination of their optimization goals (i.e., a combined MP-CM).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

The influence of cloud cover on the reliability of satellite-based solar resource data

Satellite-based solar resource data are often developed and validated by using binary cloudiness categories: clear sky or overcast cloudy sky. To investigate the reliability of solar resource data in partially cloudy conditions, we estimate cloud fraction using two distinct algorithms: a physical retrieval model using surface observed global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) and a temporal average of cloud mask data estimated by the observed DNI. Our analysis reveals a significant presence of scattered clouds, broken clouds, and mismatches between satellite- and surface-based cloud data at 17 surface sites across the contiguous United States, though confidently clear and cloudy conditions collectively account for more than 70 % of the data. Solar radiation is computed using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) algorithm and validated using surface observations. Here, our findings suggest that, in the presence of scattered clouds, NSRDB data for clear-sky conditions can be subject to significant overestimation. In cloudy-sky conditions classified by satellite data, DNI computed by the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI) can be underestimated when limited clouds are detected by surface observations. The bias observed in several cloudiness categories indicates that the NSRDB is exceptionally accurate in confidently clear conditions. However, clear-sky conditions with scattered clouds and mismatched cloud data contribute significantly to the overall uncertainties in the NSRDB. Therefore, future improvements in solar resource data should involve development and implementation of satellite-derived cloud fraction and should consider a novel radiative transfer model accounting for amplified cloud reflection. The evaluation within cloudiness categories also provides a physical rationale for the superior performance of FARMS-DNI compared to the Direct Insolation Simulation Code (DISC) in both cloudy-sky and all-sky conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

On the pressure and temperature dependence of adsorption densities and other thermodynamic properties in gas shales

Black shale source rocks have become a key natural gas resource in the US and China. Unlike in conventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, a significant fraction of the gas in shales is adsorbed onto the inordinate specific surface areas (SSA) of micropores inside organic matter with densities exceeding those of bulk gas by an order of magnitude. Yet, the distribution of adsorbed versus bulk gas remains poorly understood. Experiments measure excess adsorption isotherms, which are corrected to absolute adsorption amounts by a factor that involves the density, ρ abs , of the adsorption layer(s). Constant values of ρ abs are widely used in the literature but, we argue, are inconsistent with the pressure- and temperature-dependence of adsorption behavior. In this work, we propose a more reliable approach that assumes a constant volume of each adsorption layer that can be determined from the SSA of the substrate. We measure nine high-pressure methane excess adsorption isotherms up to 15 MPa for three shale samples from China and Germany at temperatures of 65, 75, and 95 °C, and low-pressure carbon dioxide and nitrogen isotherms to estimate the SSA. We also investigate another 24 isotherms at 35, 50, and 60° C or 8 Chinese shale samples and 3 isotherms at 60, 90, and 120° C for an Argentinian shale sample from the literature. A new variation of the multi-layer Ono-Kondo lattice model is introduced to derive the temperature and pressure dependent adsorption layer densities, which are subsequently used to obtain the absolute adsorption isotherms of interest. Finally, this practical methodology has the potential to significantly improve our estimates of shale gas-in-place resources, and adsorption modeling more broadly.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Frequency Nadir Estimation in Power Systems: Preprint

An increasing penetration level of inverter-based renewable energy resources changes the inertia of power systems, posing challenges for maintaining the desired system frequency stability. An accurate frequency nadir estimation is crucial for power system operators to prepare preventive actions against large frequency excursions. In this paper, five machine learning methods - linear regression, gradient boosting, support vector regression, an artificial neural network, and XGBoost - are applied to two different sets of preprocess data for the prediction of the frequency nadir in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council 240-bus system with high renewable penetration levels. The training and testing data sets are collected by extensive generation scheduling simulations on the Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling (MIDAS) toolbox. Numerical results show that all five machine learning methods can achieve high performance accuracy for power system nadir frequency estimation. Among them, the gradient boosting and the XGBoost are clear winners by providing the best prediction accuracy.

data driven↗

DOE OSTI2021

Photovoltaic (PV) System Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Evaluation with Grid Support Function Valuation and Service Lifetime Estimation

Photovoltaic (PV) systems play a critical role in renewable energy resource grid integration, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is commonly used to evaluate PV system feasibility in modern power grids. In this work, a revised PV system LCOE calculation model is derived to quantify the potential of LCOE reduction. Particularly, the grid support functions are valuated to offset the investment and operation costs of PV systems, which thereby reduces the LCOE. Meanwhile, PV system service lifetime is also estimated with the derived PV inverter reliability model, considering the critical components (i.e., semiconductor devices and capacitors). The case studies with field datasets are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the developed LCOE calculation model.

Zhao, Shijia↗

DOE OSTI2024

Online Model-Free DER Dispatch Via Adaptive Voltage Sensitivity Estimation and Chance Constrained Programming

This paper proposes an online data-driven distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) for distribution system optimal DER dispatch as well as voltage regulation. Here, the key innovation is to leverage the Local Sensitivity Factor (LSF) for transforming the DER control into a computationally efficient linear programming (LP) problem. By taking real-time measurements, the estimation of LSF eliminates the need for an accurate distribution system model as well as full nodal load information, which is difficult to achieve in practice. A robust recursive least squares method is also developed to ensure the robust estimation of LSF, which is initialized using reasonable values from model-derived LSFs. This allows the system to adapt to changing operational conditions effectively. A scenario-based, chance-constrained framework is further employed to ensure voltage remains within acceptable limits in the presence of measurement and estimation uncertainties. Test results on a real-world, 759-node distribution network located in western Colorado, U.S., validate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed control approach and demonstrate its superior performance as compared to alternative methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Representation in Power System Models

Power system models generally fail to capture the range of characteristics geothermal resources provide and the value they potentially contribute to decarbonization and reliability of future electricity grids as firm, dispatchable, non-combustion power resources. This study reviews the results of power system modeling efforts to investigate geothermal deployment potential in the United States, including the U.S. DOE GeoVision analysis and ongoing modeling and analysis efforts to support planning and development of future grids with 100% renewable energy in California. Several themes are identified that could be implemented immediately to improve the accuracy of geothermal representation in power system models: consistency of model inputs, modeling of baseload and dispatchable geothermal resources, accurate valuation of grid services, improved representation of capacity factor, use of contemporary LCOE estimates, improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value, and use of accurate resource potential constraints. Many of the models reviewed produced significantly different amounts of geothermal resource selection - even when modeling the same region and time period. This highlights the variability of inputs and assumptions among models, so creating a consistent set of geothermal inputs is a first step toward more accurate representation of geothermal in models. Research opportunities are identified that could help improve geothermal data inputs in modeling efforts, including analyses of historical data, sensitivity to model inputs, and comparative value of geothermal generators as baseload or dispatchable resources. Outcomes of such research can inform the geothermal community about how best to guide geothermal development toward wider deployment in support of future electricity grids through improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value over time and the characteristics that contribute to that value.

capacity expansion models↗

DOE OSTI2021

The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

Studies exploring long-term energy system transitions rely on resource cost-supply curves derived from estimates of renewable energy (RE) potentials to generate wind and solar power projections. However, estimates of RE potentials are characterized by large uncertainties stemming from methodological assumptions that vary across studies, including factors such as the suitability of land and the performance and configuration of technology. Based on a synthesis of modeling approaches and parameter values used in prior studies, we explore the implications of these uncertain assumptions for onshore wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation projections globally using the Global Change Analysis Model. We show that variability in parametric assumptions related to land use (e.g. land suitability) are responsible for the most substantial uncertainty in both wind and solar generation projections. Additionally, assumptions about the average turbine installation density and turbine technology are responsible for substantial uncertainty in wind generation projections. Under scenarios that account for climate impacts on wind and solar energy, we find that these parametric uncertainties are far more significant than those emerging from differences in climate models and scenarios in a global assessment, but uncertainty surrounding climate impacts (across models and scenarios) have significant effects regionally, especially for wind. Our analysis suggests the need for studies focusing on long-term energy system transitions to account for this uncertainty.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Addressing Market Issues in Electrical Power Systems with Large Shares of Variable Renewable Energy

This paper reports recent findings from IEA Wind TCP Task 25, which compiles international experiences and research related to large-scale integration of wind and other renewable energy. In the paper, we address the main challenges for market integration of variable renewable energy, relating to price formation, cost recovery, balancing and other grid services. The paper gives an overview of recent scenario studies on electricity price impacts of (1) various generation, energy storage and demand types in different markets, and (2) different market designs and energy/climate policies. Studying markets with very high shares of variable renewable energy requires an improved set of analysis tools for forecasting market outcomes, estimating flexibility needs and sources, and assessing resource adequacy. Key market features need to be investigated within these improved analytical capabilities for systems transitioning to high shares of variable renewable energy, storage and flexible demand. System services that can be supported by markets will likely need to be revisited. Finally, this paper identifies open questions and suggested future market design work for supporting systems with very high shares of variable renewable energy, which are to be addressed in follow-up work of Task 25 collaborative research.

cost recovery↗

DOE OSTI2022

Storm DEPART(Damage Estimate Prediction And Recovery Tool)

Damage prediction, materials needed, and resource allocation modeling capability in order to support pre-incident planning and preparation by predicting damage to the power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets. The capabilities will be developed by multiple factors to include wind bands, storm surge, and flooding forecasts to participant’s assets which will result in a report of predicted damages. Additional factors to include available participants infrastructure data to include class, age, construction, location, wind rating, and additional information not in the public domain. Based on predicted damages, the output will be a bill of materials (BOM) to support short-term recovery operations. The extensiveness and level of detail for this BOM will depend on the replacement configuration specifications provided for each individual participant asset. Any limiting factors for the model will be applied related supply chain and resource constraints.

Klett, Mary↗

DOE OSTI2023

Utah FORGE 3-2535: Joint EM-Seismic-InSAR Imaging of Fracture Properties - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Joint Electromagnetic/Seismic/InSAR Imaging of Spatial-Temporal Fracture Growth and Estimation of Physical Fracture Properties During EGS Resource Development project by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, presented by Dr. David Alumbaugh, Staff Scientist. The project's objective was to develop a set of technologies and workflow to image induced fracture generation and growth for an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS). The project anticipates imaging of the fracture generation and growth at FORGE using a combination of passive seismic, active source borehole EM, and INSAR technology. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 8, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE 3-2535: Joint Imaging of Fracture Growth and Estimation of Fracture Properties During EGS Development - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Joint Electromagnetic/Seismic/InSAR Imaging of Spatial-Temporal Fracture Growth and Estimation of Physical Fracture Properties During EGS Resource Development by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, presented by David Alumbaugh. This is a video presentation on developing a set of technologies and workflow to image induced fracture generation and growth for an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS). Using a combination of passive seismic and active source borehole EM and InSAR technology it is anticipated imaging and fracture generation and growth monitoring will be actualized. The workflow will provide a template for imaging induced fracture systems for future EGS systems. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 13, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

DOE Energy Frontier Research Centers Center for Direct Catalytic Conversion of Biomass to Biofuels (C3Bio)

New capabilities to predict, design and control the chemistries of carbon could answer a global imperative to transition from fossil-based to sustainable transportation fuels. While the use of inexpensive hydrocarbons has been an unparalleled achievement and enabler of economic prosperity for many nations, singular dependence upon crude oil has given rise to systemic vulnerabilities in climate, energy, economic, and national security. Lignocellulosic biomass, a renewable and carbon-neutral resource, has the potential to displace an estimated annual equivalent of three billion barrels of oil in the U.S. alone (National Research Council 2009, U. S. Department of Energy, 2011). However, biomass has only one-third the energy density of crude oil (Agrawal and Singh 2009, Richard 2010) and lacks petroleum’s versatility as a feedstock for fuels and chemicals. These limitations keep biomass conversion below the efficiency level needed for strategic impact while the scientific challenge of routing carbon from one molecular context to another remains unmet. In 2009, the Center for Direct Catalytic Conversion of Biomass to Biofuels (C3Bio) recognized the potential of chemical catalysis and fast pyrolysis to overcome such limitations by transforming the main components of biomass (cellulose, xylan, and lignin) from grasses and trees directly to liquid hydrocarbons and aromatic co-products. Enabled by the EFRC high-risk, high-reward approach to grand challenge science, C3Bio researchers have been key national players in disrupting the conventional paradigm of the cellulosic biorefinery into a new future of “no carbon left behind”—the full utilization of carbon from plant cell walls in energy-dense fuels (Fig. 1). We identified catalytic and fast-pyrolytic pathways that utilize cellulose, xylan and, most significantly, lignin. We developed catalytic processes that deoxygenate and transform monomers and isolated polymers into useful products and tested their use with intact biomass. We gained control of lignin synthesis within plants and initiated tailoring biomass to its end-use through the tools of plant molecular biology and genetic engineering. C3Bio breakthroughs have increased the energy density of biomass-derived substrates via catalytic and pyrolytic conversions into products such as benzoquinones, furfural and hydroxymethylfurfural, levoglucosan and levulinic acid, methoxypropylphenols and propylbenzene. Such advances in biomass conversion would not have been possible without simultaneous advances in analytical instrumentation and methodologies, and imaging technologies and applications. The legacy science developed by C3Bio enables design and control strategies for achieving a targeted product portfolio of fuel and chemical feedstocks from a diverse range of native and tailored biomass. Our research provides the knowledge base required for a bio-economy with product streams as diverse in functionality as those of the petrochemical industry. Coupling targeted computational modeling with experimentation, we achieved: (1) fundamental understanding of biopolymers and cell wall architecture assembly, (2) discovery of new chemistries that allow the development of highly selective pathways to fuels and desirable chemicals, and (3) an integrated systems-level understanding to control catalytic and pyrolytic pathways.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Addendum to water resource assessment in the New Mexico Permian Basin

There are an estimated 48,745 wells producing oil or gas in New Mexico as of August 8, 2020 and with advances in drilling and oil recovery technology the use of hydraulic fracturing has become more commonplace. With a typical well requiring 1.5 to 16 million gallons of water, there is an increased demand for water in the Permian Basin and concern over the regions ability to meet this demand. This report is an addendum to the 2018 report Water Resource Assessment in the New Mexico Permian Basin (SAND2018-12018) to monitor baseline water level and chemistry data established in the original report. Results from this addendum can be used to further understand regional water supply and demands and aid in the BLMs mission of sustainably meeting the needs of water users while protecting human and environmental health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Regional Air Mobility and Electrified Aircraft on Local Grid Infrastructure and Airport Electricity Demand

The goal of this work is to analyze the electrical infrastructure that may be necessary to serve electrified aviation at a subset of airports where potential electrified flight demand has been provided. Additionally, this work will estimate the amount of onsite distributed energy resources (i.e., solar photovoltaics and battery energy storage systems) that could be used to serve EA in cost effective scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗