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NASA NTRS1994

Generation of region 1 current by magnetospheric pressure gradients

The Rice Convection Model (RCM) is used to illustrate theoretical possibilities for generating region 1 Birkeland currents by pressure gradients on closed field lines in the Earth's magnetosphere. Inertial effects and viscous forces are neglected. The RCM is applied to idealized cases, to emphasize the basic physical ideas rather than realistic representation of the actual magnetosphere. Ionospheric conductance is taken to be uniform, and the simplest possible representations of the magnetospheric plasma are used. Three basic cases are considered: (1) the case of pure northward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), with cusp merging assumed to create new closed field lines near the nose of the magnetosphere, following the suggestion by Song and Russell (1992); (2) the case where Dungey-type reconnection occurs at the nose, but magnetosheath plasma somehow enters closed field lines on the dawnside and duskside of the merging region, causing a pressure-driven low-latitude boundary layer; and (3) the case where Dungey-type reconnection occurs at the nose, but region 1 currents flow on sunward drifting plasma sheet field lines. In case 1, currents of region 1 sense are generated by pressure gradients, but those currents do not supply the power for ionospheric convection. Results for case 2 suggest that pressure gradients at the inner edge of the low-latitude boundary layer might generate a large fraction of the region 1 Birkeland currents that drive magnetospheric convection. Results for case 3 indicate that pressure gradients in the plasma sheet could provide part of the region 1 current.

Yang, Y. S.↗

NASA NTRS1996

A study of wave propagation in a duct and mode radiation

In this paper we discuss two problems of classical duct acoustics: (1) wave propagation in infinite ducts with uniform flow based on a graphical approach, and (2) detection of mode radiation from a duct by an external circular microphone array. In (1) we show that the wave number vectors for a given flow Mach number form an ellipse whose center and shape depend on the Mach number only. We construct graphically the upstream and downstream wave number vectors of modes that propagate in the duct. We then show how one can infer from this graphical approach many known results in duct propagation such as the mode cut-off concept, the direction of energy propagation, the angle of the radiation lobe at peak directivity using Rice' s cutoff ratio concept, and other qualitative results. In (2) we give the mathematics behind the experimental detection of mode radiation from a duct by a circular array of microphones whose axis coincides with the engine axis. Since the external microphone array does not introduce additional noise sources inside the engine, as does a rotating rake of microphones positioned at the inlet, this measurement technique may be preferable to use of a rotating rake. The simplicity afforded by the lack of sophisticated rotating parts is an additional advantage over the rotating array.

Farassat, F.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Sixth Alumni Conference of the International Space University

These proceedings cover the sixth alumni conference of the International Space University, coordinated by the ISU U.S. Alumni Organization, which was held at Rice University in Houston, Texas, on July 11, 1997. The alumni conference gives graduates of the International Space University's interdisciplinary, international, and intercultural program a forum in which they may present and exchange technical ideas, and keep abreast of the wide variety of work in which the ever-growing body of alumni is engaged. The diversity that is characteristic of ISU is reflected in the subject matter of the papers published in this proceedings. This proceedings preserves the order of the alumni presentations given at the 1997 ISU Alumni Conference. As in previous years, a special effort was made to solicit papers with a strong connection to the two ISU 1997 Summer Session Program design projects: (1) Transfer of Technology, Spin-Offs, Spin-Ins; and (2) Strategies for the Exploration of Mars. Papers in the remaining ten sessions cover the departmental areas traditional to the ISU summer session program.

Berry, Steve↗

NASA NTRS1997

Applying Space Technology to Enhance Control of an Artificial Arm

At the present time, myoelectric prostheses perform only one function of the hand: open and close with the thumb, index and middle finger coming together to grasp various shaped objects. To better understand the limitations of the current single-function prostheses and the needs of the individuals who use them, The Institute for Rehabilitation and Research (TIRR), sponsored by the National Institutes of Health (August 1992 - November 1994), surveyed approximately 2500 individuals with upper limb loss. When asked to identify specific features of their current electric prosthesis that needed improvement, the survey respondents overwhelmingly identified the lack of wrist and finger movement as well as poor control capability. Simply building a mechanism with individual finger and wrist motion is not enough. Individuals with upper limb loss tend to reject prostheses that require continuous visual monitoring and concentration to control. Robotics researchers at NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC) and Rice University have made substantial progress in myoelectric teleoperation. A myoelectric teleoperation system translates signals generated by an able-bodied robot operator's muscles during hand motions into commands that drive a robot's hand through identical motions. Farry's early work in myoelectric teleoperation used variations over time in the myoelectric spectrum as inputs to neural networks to discriminate grasp types and thumb motions. The resulting schemes yielded up to 93% correct classification on thumb motions. More recently, Fernandez achieved 100% correct non-realtime classification of thumb abduction, extension, and flexion on the same myoelectric data. Fernandez used genetic programming to develop functions that discriminate between thumb motions using myoelectric signal parameters. Genetic programming (GP) is an evolutionary programming method where the computer can modify the discriminating functions' form to improve its performance, not just adjust numerical coefficients or weights. Although the function development may require much computational time and many training cases, the resulting discrimination functions can run in realtime on modest computers. These results suggest that myoelectric signals might be a feasible teleoperation medium, allowing an operator to use his or her own hand and arm as a master to intuitively control an anthropomorphic robot in a remote location such as outer space.

Atkins, Diane↗

NASA NTRS1995

Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling: First Science Conference

Topics considered include: Biomass of termites and their emissions of methane and carbon dioxide - A global database; Carbon isotope discrimination during photosynthesis and the isotope ratio of respired CO2 in boreal forest ecosystems; Estimation of methane emission from rice paddies in mainland China; Climate and nitrogen controls on the geography and timescales of terrestrial biogeochemical cycling; Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions - A case study at 6000 years B.P.; Interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems; and Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions.

Sahagian, Dork↗

NASA NTRS1997

From Top to Bottom - the Multiwavelength Campaign of V824 Ara (HD 155555)

A great deal of progress has been made in recent years in decomposing the 2-D structure in the atmospheres of late-type stars. Doppler images of many photospheres single stars, T Tauri stars, Algols, RS CV(sub n) binaries to name a few - are regularly published (Strassmeier 1996; Richards and Albright 1996; Rice and Strassmeier 1996; Kuerster et al. 1994). Ultraviolet spectral images of chromospheres appear in the literature (e.g., Walter et al. 1987; Neff et al. 1989) but are less common owing to the difficult nature of obtaining complete phase coverage. Zeeman doppler images of magnetic fields are now feasible (e.g., Donati et al. 1992). Performing Doppler imaging of the same targets over many seasons has also been accomplished (e.g, Vogt et al. 1997). Even when a true image reconstruction is not possible due to poor spectral resolution, we can still infer a great deal about spatial structure if enough phases are observed. However, it is increasingly apparent that to make sense of recent results, many different spectral features spanning a range of formation temperature and density must be observed simultaneously for a coherent picture to emerge. Here we report on one such campaign. In 1996, we observed the southern hemisphere RS CV(sub n) binary V824 Ara (P=1(sup d).68, G5IV+K0V-IV-IV) over one complete stellar rotation with the Hubble Space Telescope and EUVE. In conjunction, radio and optical photometry and spectroscopy were obtained from the ground. Unique to this campaign is the complete phase coverage of a number of activity proxy indicators that cover source temperatures ranging from the photosphere to the corona.

Dempsey, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1996

Chemical Characteristics of Continental Outflow from Asia to the Troposphere over the Western Pacific Ocean during September - October 1991: Results from PEM-West A

An important objective of the Pacific Exploratory Mission-West A (PEM-West A) was the chemical characterization of the outflow of tropospheric trace gases and aerosol particles from the Asian continent over the western Pacific Ocean. This paper summarizes the chemistry of this outflow during the period September - October 1991. The vertical distributions of CO, C2H6, and NO(x), showed regions of outflow at altitudes below 2 km and from 8 to 12 km. Mixing ratios of CO were approx. equals 130 parts per billion by volume (ppbv), approx. equals 1OOO parts per trillion by volume (pptv) for C2H6, and approx. equals 100 pptv for NO(x) in both of these regions. Direct outflow of Asian industrial materials was clearly evident at altitudes below 2 km, where halocarbon tracer compounds such as CH3CCl3 and C2Cl4 were enhanced about threefold compared to aged Pacific air. The source attribution of species outflowing from Asia to the Pacific at 8-12 km altitude was not straightforward. Above 10 km altitude there were substantial enhancements of NO(y), O3, CO, CH4, SO2, C2H6, C3H8, C2H2, and aerosol Pb-210 but not halocarbon industrial tracers. These air masses were rich in nitrogen relative to sulfur and contained ratios of C2H2/CO and C3H8/C2H6 (approx. equals l.5 and 0.1 respectively) indicative of several- day-old combustion emissions. It is unclear if these emissions were of Asian origin, or if they were rapidly transported to this region from Europe by the high wind speeds in this tropospheric region (60 - 70 m/s). The significant cyclonic activity over Asia at this time could have transported to the upper troposphere emissions from biomass burning in Southeast Asia or emissions from the extensive use of various biomass materials for cooking and space heating. Apparently, the emissions in the upper troposphere were brought there by wet convective systems since water-soluble gases and aerosols were depleted in these air masses. Near 9 km altitude there was a distinct regional outflow that appeared to be heavily influenced by biogenic processes on the Asian continent, especially from the southeastern area. These air masses contained CH4 in excess of 1800 ppbv, while CO2 and OCS were significantly depleted (349 - 352 ppmv and 450 - 500 pptv, respectively). This signature seemingly reflected CH4 emissions from wetlands and rice paddies with coincident biospheric uptake of tropospheric CO2 and OCS.

Talbot, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Penetration Electric Fields and Inner Magnetosphere Dynamics: A Model and Data Comparison

Significant progress has been made on the analysis of the June, 1991 storm. We have completed the analysis of the CRRES and DMSP data sets. We have been able to follow the evolution during the storm of the inner edge of the electric field patterns in the dusk sector and its relation to electron boundaries, ion boundaries and the ring current. Whereas the CRRES data provide radial cuts out through the plasmasphere every I 0 hours, DMSP provides snapshots every orbit of the potential and particle boundaries. Electric field and energetic particle measurements from CRRES and ion drifts and energetic particle measurements from DMSP provide the principal data sets. The combined data set provides high resolution definition of the boundary motions over the phases of the storm. L shell differences between the DMSP and CRRES particle boundaries are easily explained by inflation of the dusk sector by the ring current. The electric field boundaries are typically associated with the ion boundary and the inner edge of the ring current except during rapid increases in the cross-polar cap potential. A significant fraction of the dusk cell potential is found inside the plasmasheet electron inner edge. Twice during the storm this potential exceeded 60 kV. A paper (copy attached) has been prepared (Burke et al., 1998) and submitted to JGR. An invited paper will be presented by Burke at the spring AGU meeting. An abstract has also been submitted to the COSPAR meeting for presentation by Maynard. New simulations have been carried out with the Rice Convection Model for the magnetic storm of June 4-5, 1991, and comparisons have been made with CRRES and DMSP data.

Maynard, Nelson C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Numerical Simulation of Rotation-Driven Plasma Transport In the Jovian Magnetosphere

A Jupiter version of the Rice Convection Model (RCM-J) was developed with support of an earlier NASA SR&T grant. The conversion from Earth to Jupiter included adding currents driven by centrifugal force, reversing the planetary magnetic field, and rescaling various parameters. A series of informative runs was carried out, all of them solving initial value problems. The simulations followed an initial plasma torus configuration as it fell apart by interchange instability. Some conclusions from the simulations were the following: 1. We confirmed that, for conventional values of the torus density and ionospheric conductance, the torus disintegrates by interchange instability on a time scale of approx. one day, which is 1-2 orders of magnitude shorter than the best estimates of the average residence time of plasma in the torus. 2. In the model, the instability could be slowed to an arbitrary degree by the addition of sufficient impounding energetic particles, as suggested earlier by Siscoe et al (1981). However, the observed energetic particles do not seem sufficient to guarantee impoundment (e.g., Mauk et al., 1996). 3. Whether inhibited by impoundment or not, the interchange was found to proceed by the formation of long fingers, which get thinner as they get longer. This picture differed dramatically from the conventional radial-diffusion picture (e.g., Siscoe and Summers (1981)), more superficially with the outward-moving-blob picture (Pontius and Hill, 1989). The obvious limitation of the original RCM-J was that it could not represent a plasma source. We could represent the decay of a pre-existing torus, but we could not represent the way ionization of material from Io continually replenishes the plasma. We consequently were precluded from studying a whole set of fundamental issues of torus theory, including whether the system can come to a steady state.

Wolf, Richard A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Magnetospheric Image Unfolding

The Grant was a three year grant funded under the Space Physics Supporting Research and Technology and Suborbital Program. Our objective was to develop automated techniques needed to unfold or "invert" global images of the magnetospheric ion populations obtained by the new magnetospheric imaging techniques (ENA, EUV) in anticipation of future missions such as the Magnetospheric Imager and, now, IMAGE. Our focus on the present three year grant is to determine the degree to which such images can quantitatively constrain the global electromagnetic properties of the magnetosphere. In a previous three year grant period we successfully automated a forward modeling inversion algorithm, demonstrated that these inversions are robust in the face of realistic instrumental considerations such as counting statistics and backgrounds, applied error analysis techniques to the extracted parameters using variational procedures, implemented very realistic magnetospheric test images to test the inversion algorithms using the Rice University Magnetospheric Specification Model, and began the process of generating parametric models with the flexibility to handle the realistic magnetospheric images (e.g. Roelof et al, 1992; 1993). Our plan for the present 3 year grant period was to complete the development of the inversion tools needed to handle realistic magnetospheric images, assess the degree to which global electrodynamics is quantitatively constrained by ENA images of the magnetosphere, and bring the inversion of EUV images up to the maturity that we will have achieved for the ENA imaging. Below the accomplishments of our three year effort are present followed by a list of our presentations and publications. The accomplishments of all three years are presented here, and thus some of these items appeared on interim progress reports.

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NASA NTRS1998

[Sources of Methane in the Boreal Region]

In determining the global methane budget the sources of methane must be balanced with the sinks and atmospheric inventory. The approximate contribution of the different methane sources to the budget has been establish showing the major terrestrial inputs as rice, wetlands, bogs, fens, and tundra. Measurements and modeling of production in these sources suggest that temperature, water table height and saturation along with substratum composition are important in controlling methane production and emission. The isotopic budget of 13 C and D/H in methane can be used as a tool to clarify the global budget. This approach has achieved success at constraining the inputs. Studies using the isotopic approach place constraints on global methane production from different sources. Also, the relation between the two biogenic production pathways, acetate fermentation and CO2 reduction, and the effect of substratum composition can be made using isotope measurements shows the relation between the different biogenic, thermogenic and anthropogenic sources of methane as a function of the carbon and hydrogen isotope values for each source and the atmosphere, tropospheric composition. Methane emissions from ponds and fens are a significant source in the methane budget of the boreal region. An initial study in 1993 and 1994 on the isotopic composition of this methane source and the isotopic composition in relation to oxidation of methane at the sediment surface of the ponds or fen was conducted as part of our BOREAS project. The isotopic composition of methane emitted by saturated anoxic sediment is dependent on the sediment composition and geochemistry, but will be influenced by in situ oxidation, in part, a function of rooted plant activity. The influence of oxidation mediated by rooted plant activities on the isotopic composition of methane is not well known and will depend on the plant type, sediment temperature, and numerous other variables. Information on this isotopic composition is important in both understanding the bio-geochemistry of the system and also in determining the regional and global inputs for the methane isotope budget. In determining the destruction of methane for balancing the atmospheric methane budget soil oxidation must be considered.

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NASA NTRS1997

Electronic Structure of TlBa2CaCu2O(7-Delta)

The core levels of TlBa2CaCu2O(7-delta) (Tl-1212) epitaxial films have been measured with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The valence electronic structure has been determined using the full-potential linear muffin-tin-orbital band-structure method and measured with XPS. The calculations show that a van Hove singularity (VHS) lies above the Fermi level (E(sub F)) for the stoichiometric compound (delta = 0.5), while for 50% oxygen vacancies in the Tl-O layer (delta = 0.5) E(sub F) is in close proximity to the VHS. Samples annealed in nitrogen (to reduce the hole overdoping by the removal of oxygen) exhibit higher core-level binding energies and a higher T(sub c), consistent with a shift of E(sub F) closer to the VHS. Comparisons are made to the core levels and valence bands of Tl2Ba2CaCu2O(8 + delta)(Tl-2212) and HgBa2CaCu2O)6 + delta) (Hg- 1212). The similarity of the Cu 2p(sub 3/2) spectra for Tl-1212 and Tl-2212 indicates that the number of Tl-O layers has little effect on the Cu-O bonding. However, the Tl-1212 and Hg-1212 Cu 2p(sub 3/2) signals exhibit differences which suggest that the replacement of T(sup 3+) with Hg(sup 2+) results in a decrease in the O 2p right arrow Cu 3d charge-transfer energy and differences in the probabilities of planar vs apical oxygen charge transfer and/or Zhang-Rice singlet-state formation. Differences between the Tl-1212 and the Tl-2212 and Hg-1212 measured valence bands are consistent with the calculated Cu 3d and (Tl,Hg) 6s/5d partial densities of states.

Vasquez, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Hubble Space Telescope observations of Orion Nebula, Helix Nebula, and NGC 6822

This grant covered the major part of the work of the Principal Investigator and his collaborators as a Guaranteed Time Observer on the Hubble Space Telescope. The work done naturally divided itself into two portions the first being study of nebular objects and the second investigation of the interstellar medium between stars. The latter investigation was pursued through a contract with Princeton University, with Professor Lyman Spitzer as the supervising astronomer, assisted by Dr. Ed Fitzpatrick. Following the abrupt death of Professor Spitzer, his responsibilities were shifted to Dr. Fitzpatrick. When Dr. Fitzpatrick relocated to Villanova University the concluding work on that portion of this grant was concluded under a direct service arrangement. This program has been highly successful and the resulting publications in scientific journals are listed below. To the scientist, this is the bottom line, so that I shall simply try to describe the general nature of what was accomplished. There were three nebular programs conducted, one on the Orion Nebula, the second on the Helix Nebula, and the third on NGC 6822. The largest program was that on the Orion Nebula. This involved both HST observations and supporting groundbased observations obtained with a variety of instruments, including the Coude Feed Telescope at the Kitt Peak National observatory in Arizona, the Cerro Tololo observatory in Chile, and the Keck Observatory on Mauna Kea, Hawaii. Moreover, considerable theoretical modeling was done and all of the data analysis was performed at the Rice University in Houston, except for the PI's period of sabbatical leave (6-96 through 7-97) when he was based at the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy in Heidelberg, Germany. The Orion Nebula program was the most productive part, resulting in numerous papers, but more important in the discovery of a new class of objects, for which we coined the name "proplyds". The proplyds are protoplanetary disks surrounding very young stars still in the process of creation. The Orion Nebula is the residual material from a burst of star formation that occurred about 300,000 years ago. Each of these new stars has a surrounding disk of protoplanetary material. The same physics that renders the Nebula so highly visible means that the proto-planetary disks are also quite visible. With the wisdom of hindsight, we now see that this was to be expected and that we should have been searching specifically for this type of object. The discovery of these objects and their subsequent detailed investigation has lead to an accurate assessment of the frequency of protoplanetary disks in young stars and determination of the likelihood of survival of these disks into an era where planets actually form.

Spitzer, Lyman↗

NASA NTRS1994

Empirical Modeling of Plant Gas Fluxes in Controlled Environments

As humans extend their reach beyond the earth, bioregenerative life support systems must replace the resupply and physical/chemical systems now used. The Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) will utilize plants to recycle the carbon dioxide (CO2) and excrement produced by humans and return oxygen (O2), purified water and food. CELSS design requires knowledge of gas flux levels for net photosynthesis (PS(sub n)), dark respiration (R(sub d)) and evapotranspiration (ET). Full season gas flux data regarding these processes for wheat (Triticum aestivum), soybean (Glycine max) and rice (Oryza sativa) from published sources were used to develop empirical models. Univariate models relating crop age (days after planting) and gas flux were fit by simple regression. Models are either high order (5th to 8th) or more complex polynomials whose curves describe crop development characteristics. The models provide good estimates of gas flux maxima, but are of limited utility. To broaden the applicability, data were transformed to dimensionless or correlation formats and, again, fit by regression. Polynomials, similar to those in the initial effort, were selected as the most appropriate models. These models indicate that, within a cultivar, gas flux patterns appear remarkably similar prior to maximum flux, but exhibit considerable variation beyond this point. This suggests that more broadly applicable models of plant gas flux are feasible, but univariate models defining gas flux as a function of crop age are too simplistic. Multivariate models using CO2 and crop age were fit for PS(sub n), and R(sub d) by multiple regression. In each case, the selected model is a subset of a full third order model with all possible interactions. These models are improvements over the univariate models because they incorporate more than the single factor, crop age, as the primary variable governing gas flux. They are still limited, however, by their reliance on the other environmental conditions under which the original data were collected. Three-dimensional plots representing the response surface of each model are included. Suitability of using empirical models to generate engineering design estimates is discussed. Recommendations for the use of more complex multivariate models to increase versatility are included.

Cornett, Jessie David↗

NASA NTRS1988

STS-26 Preflight Press Briefing: Crew Escape/Crew Equipment

This NASA KSC video release presents part of a press conference held prior to Discovery flight STS-26, the first shuttle mission flown following the 51-L Challenger accident. The five member panel present individual viewgraph discussions followed by a question and answer period for the benefit of scientific journalists. William A. Chandler (Asst. to the Dir. of Engineering and the NSTS program) gives a brief overview of the crew escape system followed by Steven Nagel's (Astronaut) presentation on crew equipment. Robert Rice (Crew Escape System Manager) describes the flight test program and the innovative pyrotechnics system test program. Tim Pelischek (Pole Design Team) gives an assessment of the critical design review and Ricardo Machin reviews aerodynamic flight tests performed at Texas A&M and California. The second part of the video includes Robert Crippen's (Deputy Dir. of Operations, Kennedy Space Center) overview of NASA Management, the organizational changes and actions taken to meet the Roger's Commission recommendations.

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NASA NTRS1999

Observed Impacts

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS2000

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS1999

Crack Turning and Arrest Mechanisms for Integral Structure

In the course of several years of research efforts to predict crack turning and flapping in aircraft fuselage structures and other problems related to crack turning, the 2nd order maximum tangential stress theory has been identified as the theory most capable of predicting the observed test results. This theory requires knowledge of a material specific characteristic length, and also a computation of the stress intensity factors and the T-stress, or second order term in the asymptotic stress field in the vicinity of the crack tip. A characteristic length, r(sub c), is proposed for ductile materials pertaining to the onset of plastic instability, as opposed to the void spacing theories espoused by previous investigators. For the plane stress case, an approximate estimate of r(sub c), is obtained from the asymptotic field for strain hardening materials given by Hutchinson, Rice and Rosengren (HRR). A previous study using of high order finite element methods to calculate T-stresses by contour integrals resulted in extremely high accuracy values obtained for selected test specimen geometries, and a theoretical error estimation parameter was defined. In the present study, it is shown that a large portion of the error in finite element computations of both K and T are systematic, and can be corrected after the initial solution if the finite element implementation utilizes a similar crack tip discretization scheme for all problems. This scheme is applied for two-dimensional problems to a both a p-version finite element code, showing that sufficiently accurate values of both K(sub I) and T can be obtained with fairly low order elements if correction is used. T-stress correction coefficients are also developed for the singular crack tip rosette utilized in the adaptive mesh finite element code FRANC2D, and shown to reduce the error in the computed T-stress significantly. Stress intensity factor correction was not attempted for FRANC2D because it employs a highly accurate quarter-point scheme to obtain stress intensity factors.

Pettit, Richard↗