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DOE OSTI2022

Community-Scale Solar Deployment in the Northwest Arctic

NANA Regional Corporation (NRC, or NANA) was formed as an Alaska Native Corporation (ANC) pursuant to the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of 1971. Our lands cover 39,000 square miles of the Northwest Arctic region of Alaska. We partner closely with the Northwest Arctic Borough (NAB) and our 11 remote communities on numerous projects and activities, especially around clean energy initiatives that improve quality of life and help to reduce extremely high energy costs experienced by the communities in our region. Collectively, the regional partnership has developed numerous successful solar, wind, biomass, and energy storage, distribution upgrade, and efficiency projects. To further progress, we created the Northwest Arctic Energy Steering Committee to share and replicate these benefits across the region. NANA’s mission is to provide economic opportunities for our more than 13,500 Iñupiat shareholders and to protect and enhance NANA lands.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Informing New Concepts for UAS and Autonomous System Safety Management using Disaster Management and First Responder Scenarios

As emerging flight operations become more prevalent and increasingly automated and distributed, the capabilities for managing safety of vehicles and operations will also need to evolve. To address this challenge, the National Academies has envisioned an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) capability for a wide range of aviation operations including current commercial operations as well as new entrants envisioned with advanced air mobility (AAM). The suite of IASMS services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) would be implemented in a federated approach and would address trends as well as individual operations. Through predictive modeling and data analysis, IASMS is envisioned to identify arising risks so that they can be mitigated, in-time, before a safety incident occurs. IASMS and its requisite set of SFCs must leverage a wide range of information to perform. To better understand these new needs, FSF worked with the aviation and humanitarian communities to develop and validate scenarios that include traditional aviation operations and UAS operations intermingled as they are deployed for disaster management and first responder (DMFR) situations. The three scenarios developed include: • Post Natural disaster response, such as a hurricane, involving multiple parties utilizing traditional aviation and UAS to support rescue operations, surveil damage, and locate survivors needing assistance. • Wildfire fighting in remote locations with traditional aircraft for transport and fire-retardant delivery combined with UAS for surveillance of fire locations as well as to track individual firefighter locations. • Medical Operations and AAM in Urban Environments including passenger-carrying helicopters and AAM vehicles, medical missions (such as transport of radio-pharmaceuticals), and other UAS delivery operations (such as the delivery of defibrillators). Each scenario was developed and validated by representatives with expertise in humanitarian operations, urban and rural emergency response, air traffic management, UAS operations, and traditional flight operations. The scenario definitions address roles and responsibilities of individual actors, the appropriate utilization of UAS, and the actions taken by those actors to appropriately manage risks associated with the mission and environment. The risks to aviation traffic and to people on the ground explored included potential risks arising from incompatibilities in calculating reference altitudes (eg, differing uses of AGL, MSL, barometric, or GPS-derived values), loss of command and control (C2) communications, rapid changes in weather and winds, and physical interference. For each risk, IASMS SFCs were postulated in the context of monitoring services, risk assessment capabilities, and identifying appropriate mitigation strategies. The identified SFC capabilities were envisioned from known services postulated for IASMS and for UTM. For these unique environments, IASMS SFCs are needed to address conditions such as hazardous payloads, micro-climates and urban canyons, and the need to keep uninvolved air traffic out of the area where DMFR operations are being conducted. The second phase of analysis focused on inferring the specific information needs and the SFCs for IASMS, utilizing a structure of 16 information classes to organize requirements. For each of the risks identified in the workshops, it was postulated what data sources would be necessary to monitor critical aspects of the risk (eg, surrounding air traffic, ground population, terrain, etc). to be directly measured as well as data that would be derived, which implies additional SFCs for different actors to understand what information would likely be exchanged between parties. For an IASMS to be effective, additional research is needed to develop the advanced algorithms that can address the increasingly autonomous and complex operations in differing environments and to develop means of identifying unknown risks. Looking at these scenarios highlighted a number of research issues. These include the ability to quickly "cordon off" airspace thru temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) or other means, developing clear definitions to enable automation-based algorithms for prioritizing operations, defining airspace density metrics, standardization of altitude reporting, and establishing a basis for safety data metrics definition and collection. This paper seeks to outline the development of an IASMS in the context of the DMFR scenarios and resulting demonstrations. Utilizing this contextual approach, NASA will generate recommendations for an assured safety framework for AAM operations that enables AAM operations to safely access the NAS.

In Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Investigation of Widespread Ozone Damage to the Soybean Crop in the Upper Midwest Determined From Ground-Based and Satellite Measurements

Elevated concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3) are frequently measured over farmland regions in many parts of the world. While numerous experimental studies show that O3 can significantly decrease crop productivity, independent verifications of yield losses at current ambient O3 concentrations in rural locations are sparse. In this study, soybean crop yield data during a 5-year period over the Midwest of the United States were combined with ground and satellite O3 measurements to provide evidence that yield losses on the order of 10% could be estimated through the use of a multiple linear regression model. Yield loss trends based on both conventional ground-based instrumentation and satellite-derived tropospheric O3 measurements were statistically significant and were consistent with results obtained from open-top chamber experiments and an open-air experimental facility (SoyFACE, Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment) in central Illinois. Our analysis suggests that such losses are a relatively new phenomenon due to the increase in background tropospheric O3 levels over recent decades. Extrapolation of these findings supports previous studies that estimate the global economic loss to the farming community of more than $10 billion annually.

Fishman, Jack↗

DOE OSTI2024

Achieving Cooperative Community Equitable Solar Sources (ACCESS) (Final Technical Report)

Since 2011, solar has grown from a niche technology to a widely accessible source of power for homes and businesses across the United States and has become a fundamental part of the modern grid. There are still challenges, however, in learning how to integrate and use PV most effectively and how to make PV universally available. Most low- and moderate-income (LMI) customers cannot currently afford PV; capital costs and financing costs are too high to drive significant penetration. Providing access to LMI individuals and communities is a critical and immediate priority, and the focus of this project. The overall objective of the Achieving Cooperative Community Equitable Solar Sources (ACCESS) project is to explore and amplify the use of innovative, cost-effective energy access programs to serve co-ops’ LMI members1. ACCESS will research at least three financing mechanisms and at least six LMI program designs including LMI engagement strategies to maximize participation for these hard-to-reach audiences. ACCESS evaluated the financial mechanisms and program designs from field tests sited at diverse co-ops that provide recognizable models for the broader co-op community to identify optimal solutions for small utilities. The research with these cooperatives allowed testing of concepts and development of models and tools for other utilities to adapt to their own program designs and expansions. ACCESS published results and developed an “ACCESS Solar Access Toolkit” consisting of program designs, LMI engagement strategies, how-to guidance, and other tools to facilitate replication at small utilities across the country. Through the dissemination practices of the ACCESS project team, all NRECA member co-ops (~900) were made aware of the “ACCESS Solar Access Toolkit” and all other ACCESS resources. NRECA and its partners developed innovations to expand co-ops’ solar energy offerings to provide all of a co-op’s members—especially those who struggle to pay their bills—with cost-effective options that meet their needs. ACCESS specifically explored utility financing mechanisms and program designs that, independently or used in combination, increase solar access for rural electric cooperatives’ LMI members/ratepayers and that reduce LMI member/ratepayers’ electricity costs by at least 10%. LMI engagement strategies focused on maximizing the number of members who receive benefits and on the cost savings to LMI participants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Urban Heat in the Cincinnati and Covington Area to Inform Local Decision-Makers and Environmental Justice Initiatives

The Urban Heat Island effect is a phenomenon characterized by urban areas experiencing temperatures that are, on average, warmer than surrounding suburban and rural regions. Urban Heat Islands are fueled by expansive impervious surfaces, vehicle emissions, and insufficient urban green space. Densely populated urban centers like the Cincinnati, Ohio and Covington, Kentucky area can experience negative health impacts due to the Urban Heat Island. NASA DEVELOP partnered with Groundwork USA and Groundwork Ohio River Valley to combine environmental education and outreach with technical capacity building in NASA Earth observations. The DEVELOP team used Landsat 5 TM and ISS ECOSTRESS to calculate daytime and nighttime land surface temperature anomalies. The team found that the Cincinnati and Covington area was 8.32°F warmer during the day and 4.97°F warmer at night compared to non-urban areas. The team also ran the Natural Capital Project InVEST Urban Cooling Model to map a heat mitigation index for the study area. The heat mitigation index models the cooling capacity of each pixel and the effect of green spaces on the pixel’s ability to mitigate heat. Results show which communities are most vulnerable to impacts of increased urban heat. The team also assessed alternative tree canopy scenarios with the InVEST model to better understand the effectiveness of potential heat mitigation strategies. Increasing tree canopy cover by 25% in urbanized land cover types was found to reduce mean temperature across the study area by 0.87°F. Combining these results with work from Groundwork’s Climate Safe Neighborhoods program highlights the relationship between extreme heat and historical-race based housing practices in the region. Results provide partners at Groundwork with refined methodologies to support future education and outreach, as well as increase future capacity to NASA Earth observations.

Celeste Gambino↗

DOE OSTI2024

Empowering Rural Electrification in Honduras: An Integrated Assessment of PV/BESS and Productive Uses of Electricity in Gracias a Dios

Honduras faces significant challenges in its energy sector, particularly in rural areas where access to reliable and affordable electricity remains limited. The flagship rural electrification initiative for Honduras Secretary of Energy (SEN) is the Politica de Acceso Universal a la Electricidad (PAUEH - Universal Electricity Access Policy), a key solution for addressing this energy poverty is the deployment of more than 1700 distributed solar and hybrid mini-grid solutions. In late 2023 as a first step towards supporting SEN's electrification efforts, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a literature review of SEN electrification policy documents and conducted a series of technical capacity-building workshops with SEN and other energy sector stakeholders in Honduras focused on using NREL's open-source REopt tool to conduct techno-economic assessments and develop least-cost optimizations for potential solar + storage mini-grid systems. Building on some initial capacity building on mini-grid modeling, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) worked with SEN to develop a detailed techno-economic assessment for electrifying two schools, a healthcare clinic, and a hospital in a hypothetical community within the department of Gracias a Dios. The analysis also evaluates the business case for cold storage productive use of energy (PUE) applications for the fisheries value chain and how the incorporation of these PUE loads potentially impacts both the viability of the PV+BESS solutions as well as local economic development. By assessing the potential for deployment of integrated PV/BESS systems to both support critical community services like education and healthcare, as well as potential for downstream enterprise and economic development, this analysis represents a first step that can help to inform specific strategies for development of pilot PV+BESS projects aligned with national priorities and sector level planning under PAUEH.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fortalecimiento de la Electrificación Rural en Honduras: Una Evaluación Integrada de PV+BESS y Usos Productivos de la Electricidad en Gracias a Dios, Honduras [Empowering Rural Electrification in Honduras: An Integrated Assessment of PV/BESS and Productive Uses of Electricity in Gracias a Dios] (Spanish Translation)

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2024

San José Urban Development: Quantifying Canopy Cover and Land Surface Temperature in San José to Identify Future Tree Planting Sites

The urban heat island effect refers to the phenomenon of substantially increased temperatures in urban areas compared to their surrounding suburban or rural counterparts. The City of San José’s Department of Parks, Recreation and Neighborhood Services (PRNS) and Department of Transportation (DOT) work to mitigate the UHI effect through urban forestry initiatives. The PRNS and DOT partnered with NASA DEVELOP to identify areas in need of tree plantings. We examined land surface temperature (LST) throughout the city using data from the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) and TIRS-2 on NASA’s Landsat 8 and 9 satellites from 2013 to 2024. We also assessed canopy cover in parks using LiDAR data collected in 2020 for the United States Geological Survey’s 3D Elevation Program, and measured vegetation greenness using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) with PlanetScope imagery from 2018 to 2024. We evaluated social and environmental factors that influence the distribution of heat event impacts by creating a heat vulnerability index. We found that heat is concentrated in urban areas and that poor vegetation health is associated with high LST. We also found that socially vulnerable communities are disproportionately located in areas of high environmental risk. These analyses allow the partners to prioritize tree plantings in parks near areas of high social and environmental risk. We determined that Earth observations can be used to inform urban forestry decision making, but because methodologies for using LiDAR to assess canopy cover vary greatly, it is difficult to make comparisons across different canopy cover assessments.

land surface temperature↗

DOE OSTI2025

Aniak Energy Efficiency Retrofit Project

The Native Village of Aniak (NVA) is a remote Yup’ik community in western Alaska. NVA is proposing to install energy efficiency measures in the Tribal Office, Community Center, Association of Village Council Presidents (AVCP) Office, and Duplex. The goal of the project is to reduce the overall energy use of the NVA by implementing energy efficiency measures in four high-use tribal buildings. This project expects to have the following outcomes: projected annual energy savings of approximately $24,238; projected annual reduction in fuel oil of roughly 1,802 gallons and electricity of around 24,537 kWh; and annual reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of approximately 84,594 pounds/year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1999

Measuring Thermal Characteristics of Urban Landscapes

The additional heating of the air over the city is the result of the replacement of naturally vegetated surfaces with those composed of asphalt, concrete, rooftops and other man-made materials. The temperatures of these artificial surfaces can be 20 to 40 C higher than vegetated surfaces. Materials such as asphalt store much of the sun's energy and remains hot long after sunset. This produces a dome of elevated air temperatures 5 to 8 C greater over the city, compared to the air temperatures over adjacent rural areas. This effect is called the "urban heat island". Urban landscapes are a complex mixture of vegetated and nonvegetated surfaces. It is difficult to take enough temperature measurements over a large city area to characterize the complexity of urban radiant surface temperature variability. However, the use of remotely sensed thermal data from airborne scanners are ideal for the task. In a study funded by NASA, a series of flights over Huntsville, Alabama were performed in September 1994 and over Atlanta, Georgia in May 1997. Analysis of thermal energy responses for specific or discrete surfaces typical of the urban landscape (e.g., asphalt, building rooftops, vegetation) requires measurements at a very fine spatial scale (i.e., <15 m) to adequately resolve these surfaces and their attendant thermal energy regimes. Additionally, very fine scale spatial resolution thermal infrared data, such as that obtained from aircraft, are very useful for demonstrating to planning officials, policy makers, and the general populace, what the benefits are of the urban forest in both mitigating the urban heat island effect, in making cities more aesthetically pleasing and more habitable environments, and in overall cooling of the community. In this presentation we will examine the techniques of analyzing remotely sensed data for measuring the effect of various urban surfaces on their contribution to the urban heat island effect.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Visual Systems Mapping to Define and Compare Woody Biomass LCAs for Sustainable Systems

The challenge addressed in this research centres on the need to choose between several biomass sources and energy production processes, while supporting rural economies and resilience of forest systems. A key barrier to effective decision-making for strategies using biomass is the lack of standardized and transparent life cycle assessment (LCA) baselines. These baselines are critical for assessing the impacts of biomass strategies but often vary due to regional factors and chosen simplifying assumptions of the LCAs. However, omitting key variables can mean the LCA omits key feedback and balancing loops relevant to fully assessing impacts of the change or test scenario. To address these complexities, this project employs a systems engineering approach: visual systems mapping. This technique is used to define the boundaries and dynamic behaviours of LCA baselines, enhancing transparency. By examining five literature sources and their documented baseline scenarios, the systems mapping case-studies demonstrates an approach to documenting and archiving these baselines. Recommendations are that visual systems mapping should be used to document key assumptions, such as baselines, of LCAs. Further, where possible open data repositories should hold key information about LCA baselines and reproducible workflows (e.g., using open-source tools) should be used to improve transparency and comparability in LCAs. Given the consensus within the broader scientific community on the importance of replicable data practices, this research reinforces the need for standardized frameworks and systems engineering tools in LCAs. This research demonstrates a pathway to more transparent, standardized, and comparable LCAs, that may bolster decisions for biomass systems.

Davis, Maggie [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000181319328)↗

NASA NTRS2017

CERES S’COOL Project Update: The Evolution and Value of a Long-Running Education Project With a Foundation in NASA Earth Science Missions

In January 1997, the Students’ Cloud Observations On-Line (S’COOL; http://scool.larc.nasa.gov) Project began with NASA scientists visiting rural Gloucester, Virginia to observe clouds with middle school students. In the 19 years since, this educational outreach component of NASA’s Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) mission has collected ~141,000 observations from every continent and ocean basin around the world. Thousands of students and teachers have directly engaged in S’COOL. Beginning in 2008 we invited citizen scientists to participate as well. Over time S’COOL has added more components that engage participants directly with science data analysis, continuing direct ties to CERES research. Whenever possible, the S’COOL team extracts corresponding subsets of CERES data, which are sent to the participant to analyze. Observations can now be matched to images and cloud retrievals from MODIS and measurements from CALIPSO. To date, more than half of S'COOL observation reports correspond to one (or more) CERES overpasses. Comparisons with CERES geostationary satellite cloud retrievals were recently added, making cloud observations at almost any time of day over non-polar regions useful for validation. A thorough analysis of co-located S’COOL and satellite data was conducted during summer 2015. Results show that the S’COOL community provides high quality observations offering useful insights on the strengths and shortcomings of passive cloud remote sensing from space. This reconfirmed the utility of S’COOL observations to the scientific community and provides observers with deeper insight into the challenges associated with validation of space-based cloud property retrievals.

Lin H Chambers↗

DOE OSTI2026

On-Demand Transit: Features, Benefits, Challenges, Costs, and Evaluation

The U.S. Department of Energy's National Laboratory of the Rockies works in partnership with communities and transit agencies across North America to support and evaluate customized on-demand transit (ODT) systems. ODT, also known as on-demand mobility or microtransit, is a flexible form of public mobility. Unlike traditional fixed-route transit, ODT adjusts where and when service is provided rather than following predetermined schedules and routes. Having evolved from commercial ride-hailing business models, ODT leverages smartphone connectivity and real-time route optimization to provide highly responsive and dynamic service. ODT trips, which are usually shared, can function as a standalone service or as a first-/last-mile service connecting riders to other types of transit.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Colorado Alternatively Powered Aircraft Airport Infrastructure Study

Advanced Air Mobility encompasses emerging technologies in propulsion of general aviation and commuter aircraft for the purpose of moving passengers and goods. The State of Colorado has a strong aerospace and aviation legacy, and this research explores the potential energy implications of a transition from traditional aircraft propulsion systems to more-electric, full electric and hydrogen powered aircraft in flight schools, and small community air service utilizing NASA's Regional Air Mobility Model. Effort includes identifying potential energy needs and cost-effective solutions to support those emerging needs analyzing potential benefits on on-site generation and storage to optimize energy systems.Advanced Air Mobility encompasses emerging technologies in propulsion of general aviation and commuter aircraft for the purpose of moving passengers and goods. The State of Colorado has a strong aerospace and aviation legacy, and this research explores the potential energy implications of a transition from traditional aircraft propulsion systems to more-electric, full electric and hydrogen powered aircraft in flight schools, and small community air service utilizing NASA's Regional Air Mobility Model. Effort includes identifying potential energy needs and cost-effective solutions to support those emerging needs analyzing potential benefits on on-site generation and storage to optimize energy systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? Intermediate Feasibility Study Results

NREL conducted a feasibility study for a clean hydrogen production facility that would be located in Questa, New Mexico. This slide deck presents the history of the coalition of stakeholders that received NREL technical assistance through the Department of Energy's Communities Leading Energy Action Program. It describes how hydrogen is generated and its end uses. It describes two conceptual applications explored in the feasibility analysis, a grid-tied power generation and long-term storage application and a heavy-duty vehicle fueling application. The presentation details the configuration of these to applications in the Questa pilot facility, including system components, required inputs (water, electricity, and land for pv generation), and outputs in kilograms of hydrogen, megawatt hours of power delivered, and hours of vehicle hours of operation. The presentation addresses key concerns raised by groups engaged through a public outreach process, including safety, health, and environmental issues; water use; visual impacts; and costs and alternatives.

heavy-duty vehicle fueling↗

DOE OSTI2023

How long were older people expected to live with or without sarcopenia? Multistate modeling of a national cohort study

Objectives Sarcopenia is well known to be associated with mortality, but there is a lack of evidence on the estimates of life expectancy (LE) for sarcopenia in China. This study aims to estimate total life expectancy (TLE) and sarcopenia-specific LE in community-dwelling older Chinese adults with and without sarcopenia. Methods This study included participants aged 60 years and older who enrolled in the cohort in 2011 and 2013 and at least completed one follow-up until 2015 as part of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). The criteria for defining sarcopenia were based on the guidelines established by the Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia in 2019. TLE and sarcopenia-specific LE were estimated for the total population and subgroups using continuous-time multistate modeling. Results A total of 6,029 participants (49.2% women) with an average age of 68.4 (SD: 6.56) years were included in the study. The baseline prevalence of sarcopenia and possible sarcopenia was 19.5 and 44.9%, respectively. We observed that sarcopenia stages naturally deteriorated to worse stages (including death, by 24.4%) and returned to better stages (17.1%) during a median follow-up of 3.92 years (IQR: 2.00 ~ 4.00). The average TLE at the age of 60 was 20.9 [95% CI: 20.2–21.5] years (22.1 [95% CI: 19.6–24.6] for non-sarcopenic older adults, 20.9 [95% CI: 19.5–22.3] for possible sarcopenic, and 18.7 [95% CI: 16.4–21.1] for sarcopenic). Men, former and current smokers, and those living in northwest China had less TLE. Sarcopenic older adults, those with lower education, those who are unmarried, those with agriculture hukou, and those living in rural and northwest China were expected to live fewer years with non-sarcopenia. Sarcopenic older people, men, those with agriculture hukou, and those living in rural and southwest China were expected to live more years with sarcopenia. Discussion The results improved our understanding of the relationship between sarcopenia and life expectancy. We suggested that targeted strategies should be considered in high-risk populations and underdeveloped regions to prevent sarcopenia and improve non-sarcopenic life years for the older population.

Ye, Bo↗

NASA NTRS2002

NASA Langley/CNU Distance Learning Programs

NASA Langley Research Center and Christopher Newport University (CNU) provide, free to the public, distance learning programs that focus on math, science, and/or technology over a spectrum of education levels from K-adult. The effort started in 1997, and we currently have a suite of five distance-learning programs. We have around 450,000 registered educators and 12.5 million registered students in 60 countries. Partners and affiliates include the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), the Aerospace Education Coordinating Committee (AECC), the Alliance for Community Media, the National Educational Telecommunications Association, Public Broadcasting System (PBS) affiliates, the NASA Learning Technologies Channel, the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM), the Council of the Great City Schools, Hampton City Public Schools, Sea World Adventure Parks, Busch Gardens, ePALS.com, and Riverdeep. Our mission is based on the "Horizon of Learning," a vision for inspiring learning across a continuum of educational experiences. The programs form a continuum of educational experiences for elementary youth through adult learners. The strategic plan for the programs will evolve to reflect evolving national educational needs, changes within NASA, and emerging system initiatives. Plans for each program component include goals, objectives, learning outcomes, and rely on sound business models. It is well documented that if technology is used properly it can be a powerful partner in education. Our programs employ both advances in information technology and in effective pedagogy to produce a broad range of materials to complement and enhance other educational efforts. Collectively, the goals of the five programs are to increase educational excellence; enhance and enrich the teaching of mathematics, science, and technology; increase scientific and technological literacy; and communicate the results of NASA discovery, exploration, innovation and research. All pre-college distance learning programs support the national mathematics, science, and technology standards; support K-12 systemic change; involve educators in their development, implementation, and evaluation; and are based on alliances and partnerships. In addition the programs seek to invoke a sense of geographic, ethnic and cultural diversity by featuring schools from all over the U.S.; schools from urban, suburban, and rural areas; public, private, and religious schools; and schools with large populations of African-American, Asian and Hispanic students.

Caton, Randall↗

DOE OSTI2025

Initial Mobility Analysis for ORNL VA-EDH Synthetic Populations

Travel burdens are a major barrier to healthcare access among US Veteran patient populations, particularly those residing in rural areas. Spatial accessibility to points of care for US Veteran populations is commonly assessed in two ways. The first approach uses open data from the US Census to represent collective travel burdens, for example the distance between population-weighted census tract centroids and VHA points of care. The second approach uses restricted-access VHA patient data to measure travel costs (e.g., distance, time) for accessing points of care with respect to geolocated patient addresses and real or approximated transportation networks. While the advantage of the open data approach lies in its reproducibility, it has notable limitations in its tendency to infer individual travel behavior from aggregate population characteristics, a problem known as ecological fallacy. Conversely, while the patient data approach is able to account for individual travel behavior, its ability to account for localized access disparities (e.g., a neighborhood with exceptionally high transportation costs) and patient demographics is limited as protecting individual patient data requires their storage in closed systems with limited capacity for adequately modeling real-world travel patterns or for supplementing patient attributes. Additionally, the patient data approach cannot account for veterans who are not enrolled in the VHA system but who may be eligible for care. These challenges limit the ability to perform “what if” analyses on the effects of place-specific interventions on veteran populations with high access barriers to healthcare. To address these challenges, we explore the application of realistic synthetic populations to examine travel burdens and spatial accessibility issues among veteran patient populations. Synthetic populations provide a virtual, individually-resolved and cross-sectional representation of the veteran patient population that enables investigation of spatial access to points of care in ways in which aggregate data and patient data do not. First, synthetic populations allow one to directly assess how individuals access points of care, from synthesized residential locations to outpatient facilities on real-world transportation networks. Modeling access to points of care at the individual scale addresses the ecological fallacy problem associated with using aggregated census data to represent veteran populations and patterns of movement. Second, synthetic populations provide a means of completely representing an area’s veteran population using only publicly available, anonymized census microdata from the American Community Survey (ACS) to ensure the privacy of real-world individuals. Generating synthetic populations from the ACS also expands descriptive characteristics beyond what patient data typically offers to include socio-demographic, economic, housing, and mobility attributes. More detailed profiles of both VHA patient populations and veterans not enrolled in the VA system will provide a comprehensive picture of groups that may benefit from interventions or outreach. As an initial exercise for using synthetic populations to measure veteran travel burdens to VA care, we apply Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) UrbanPop capability to generate a series of synthetic VHA patient populations for 9 Veterans Integrated Services Networks (VISN) market areas in 9 Census Divisions across the continental United States, which are listed in Table 1. We use UrbanPop to produce synthetic populations for the VISN markets selected for each US Census Division, then assign VA outpatient clinic destinations to synthetic VHA patients based on travel about each VISN market’s road network. To demonstrate using the synthetic populations to evaluate healthcare travel burdens, we compare the time-based impedance between simulated home locations and VA outpatient clinics in each VISN market. We then perform validation exercises on the synthetic populations with respect to neighborhood (block group) demographic composition as well as patient mobility, comparing aggregate origin-destination statistics for the synthetic population to outpatient visits available in restricted patient data from the VA’s Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗