SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “scenario analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1993

Analysis of reentry into the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) for the LifeSat mission

This study investigates the reentry of the LifeSat vehicles into the WSMR. The LifeSat mission consists of two reusable reentry satellites, each carrying a removable payload module, which scientists will use to study long-term effects of microgravity, Van Allen belt radiation, and galactic cosmic rays on living organisms. A series of missions is planned for both low-Earth circular orbits and highly elliptic orbits. To recover the payload module with the specimens intact, a soft parachute landing and recovery at the WSMR is planned. This analysis examines operational issues surrounding the reentry scenario to assess the feasibility of the reentry.

Hametz, M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Design and structural analysis of Mars Rover RTG

The Mars Rover and Sample Return mission's radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) is presently subjected to a structural and mass analysis in view of a reference mission scenario, an illustrative Rover design and Martian activities agenda, and RTG power system requirements and environmental constraints. The modular heat-source stack in the Rover RTG can be held together by axial load springs. The RTGs should be mounted on the Rover with a vertical orientation, in order to avoid the buildup of windborne Martian sand on its heat-rejection surfaces.

Schock, Alfred↗

NASA NTRS2002

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

NASA NTRS2003

Radiation Risk Projections for Space Travel

Space travelers are exposed to solar and galactic cosmic rays comprised of protons and heavy ions moving with velocities close to the speed of light. Cosmic ray heavy ions are known to produce more severe types of biomolecular damage in comparison to terrestrial forms of radiation, however the relationship between such damage and disease has not been fully elucidated. On Earth, we are protected from cosmic rays by atmospheric and magnetic shielding, and only the remnants of cosmic rays in the form of ground level muons and other secondary radiations are present. Because human epidemiology data is lacking for cosmic rays, risk projection must rely on theoretical understanding and data from experimental models exposed to space radiation using charged particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. Although the risks of cancer and other late effects from cosmic rays are currently believed to present a severe challenge to space travel, this challenge is centered on our lack of confidence in risk projections methodologies. We review biophysics and radiobiology data on the effects of the cosmic ray heavy ions, and the current methods used to project radiation risks . Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Risk projections for space travel are described using Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error di stributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor that contributes to the projection model in order to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. This analysis is applied to space mi ssion scenarios including lunar colony, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Results suggest that the number of days in space where cancer mortality risks can be assured at a 95% confidence level to be below the maximum acceptable risk for radi ation workers on Earth or the International Space Station is only on the order of 100-200 days. Approaches to reduce these unceI1ainties and mitigate risks are described.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

NASA NTRS2013

Thermal Performance Testing of EMU and CSAFE Liquid Cooling Garments

Future exploration missions require the development of a new liquid cooling garment (LCG) that offers greater system reliability, is more comfortable, and maximizes thermal performance. To inform the development of a future LCG a thermal performance test was conducted to evaluate three factors: (1) the effect of the thermal comfort undergarment (TCU) on tactile and thermal comfort, (2) the comparable thermal performance of an CSAFE developed engineering evaluation unit (EEU) LCG, which uses a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) wicking garment as the base, and (3) the performance of a torso or upper body only LCG configuration to evaluate a proposed auxiliary loop configuration. To evaluate the thermal performance of each configuration a metabolic suit test was conducted, utilizing suited subjects to generate metabolic heat by walking on a treadmill at various speeds. Three (3) test subjects of similar height and weight produced a metabolic load for five tests by either resting (300-600 BTU/hr), walking at a slow pace (1200 BTU/hr), and walking at a brisk pace (2200 BTU/hr). During the test, data was collected that would allow us to track the heat transfer to the LCG and ventilation system to determine the thermal performance of the LCG configurations. Four different test configurations were tested, with one configuration tested twice. The test results show that the CSAFE EEU LCG and EMU LCG had comparable performance. The testing also showed that an auxiliary loop LCG, sized similarly to the shirt-only configuration, should provide adequate cooling for contingency scenarios. Finally, the testing showed the previous analysis that assumed a UA deterioration from the TCU was too conservative and the TCU may prove to be acceptable for future development with additional analysis and testing.

Rhodes, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Safe Removal of Frozen Air from the Annulus of an LH2 Storage Tank

Large Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) storage tanks are vital infrastructure for NASA. Eventually, air may leak into the evacuated and perlite filled annular region of these tanks. Although the vacuum level is monitored in this region, the extremely cold temperature causes all but the helium and neon constituents of air to freeze. A small, often unnoticeable pressure rise is the result. As the leak persists, the quantity of frozen air increases, as does the thermal conductivity of the insulation system. Consequently, a notable increase in commodity boil-off is often the first indicator of an air leak. Severe damage can result from normal draining of the tank. The warming air will sublimate which will cause a pressure rise in the annulus. When the pressure increases above the triple point, the frozen air will begin to melt and migrate downward. Collection of liquid air on the carbon steel outer shell may chill it below its ductility range, resulting in fracture. In order to avoid a structural failure, as described above, a method for the safe removal of frozen air is needed. A thermal model of the storage tank has been created using SINDA/FLUINT modeling software. Experimental work is progressing in an attempt to characterize the thermal conductivity of a perlite/frozen nitrogen mixture. A statistical mechanics model is being developed in parallel for comparison to experimental work. The thermal model will be updated using the experimental/statistical mechanical data, and used to simulate potential removal scenarios. This paper will address methodologies and analysis techniques for evaluation of two proposed air removal methods.

cryogenic insulation↗

NASA NTRS2017

Long-Term Cryogenic Propellant Storage on Mars with Hercules Propellant Storage Facility

This report details the process and results of roughly sizing the steady state, zero boil-off thermal and power parameters of the Hercules Propellant Storage Facility. For power analysis, isothermal and isobaric common bulkhead tank scenarios are considered. An estimated minimum power requirement of 8.3 kW for the Reverse Turbo-Brayton Cryocooler is calculated. Heat rejection concerns in soft vacuum Mars atmosphere are noted and potential solutions are proposed. Choice of coolant for liquid propellant conditioning and issues with current proposed cryocooler cycle are addressed; recommendations are made, e.g. adding a Joule-Thomson expansion valve after the Reverse Turbo-Brayton turbine in order to have two-phase, isothermal heat exchange through the Broad Area Cooling system. Issues with cross-country transfer lines from propellant storage to flight vehicle are briefly discussed: traditional vacuum jacketed lines are implausible, and Mars insulation needs to be developed.

Propellant Storage↗

NASA NTRS2017

Identifying Ultra Low Frequency Waves in the Lunar Plasma Environment Using Trajectory Analysis and Resonance Conditions

Abstract Recent studies show that localized crustal magnetic fields on the lunar surface can reflect a significant portion of the incoming solar wind protons. These reflected ions can drive a wide range of plasma waves. It is difficult to determine the intrinsic properties of low-frequency waves with single-spacecraft observations, which can be heavily Doppler shifted. We describe a technique to combine trajectory analysis of reflected protons with the Doppler shift and resonance conditions to identify ultralow-frequency waves at the Moon. On 31 January 2014 plasma waves were detected by one of the Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence and Electrodynamics of the Moon's Interaction with the Sun (ARTEMIS) probes as it approached the lunar wake; these waves were not detected by the second ARTEMIS probe located upstream in the undisturbed solar wind. The observed waves had a frequency below the local ion cyclotron frequency and had right-hand circular polarization in the reference frame of the Moon. By solving the Doppler shift and the cyclotron resonance equations, we determined the conditions for reflected ions to excite the observed waves. Simulated trajectories of reflected ions correspond to ARTEMIS ion observations and support the hypothesis that reflected ions are the primary driver of the waves. By combining trajectory analysis with the resonance conditions, we identify scenarios where ions that satisfy the resonance conditions are present in the right location to generate the observed waves. Using this method, we can uniquely identify the observed waves as upstream propagating right-hand polarized waves, subject to the assumption that they are generated by cyclotron resonance with ions.

Magnetic↗

NASA NTRS2017

Tidal Prediction

Tides are the most predictable of oceanographic phenomena, due both to the simplicity and predictability of the astronomical forcing and to the near linearity of the ocean's dynamical response. In the classical and simplest scenario, tidal prediction is based on harmonic analysis of past measurements at a fixed location. Limits to predictability arise because isolated astronomical spectral lines are broadened into "cusps" of incoherent energy, for example through interactions with non-tidal flows. Tidal prediction at locations without past measurements has historically been a major challenge, but, owing to near-global observations of modern satellite altimeters, the empirical harmonic approach now yields reasonably accurate predictions throughout most of the open ocean. Advances in numerical modeling and data assimilation allow these predictions to be refined (especially in shallow seas where observations remain insufficient to directly constrain tidal wave structure) and extended to include tidal currents. We review recent progress in the development of global and regional-scale tidal prediction capabilities, summarize accuracy of available charts, and briefly consider outstanding issues. Satellite altimetry has also helped unravel the global tidal energy budget and has clarified the role of internal tides as a sink of tidal energy. We summarize these results, and then turn to the challenging problem of predicting internal tides. To the extent that low modes remain coherent with the surface tide, elevations can be directly mapped. We review current efforts in this direction, which are already producing charts with predictive capability. However, internal tides (especially higher modes) interact much more strongly with lower-frequency ocean flows, so a significant fraction of this tidal signal is intermittent and incoherent. We close with a brief review of ongoing efforts to model global tides in combination with wind-forced ocean motions.

Harmonic Constants↗

NASA NTRS2015

Methods of Increasing Terminal Airspace Flexibility and Control Authority

The focus of the NRA contract is to develop a What-if Analysis Tool for planning Departure Management Programs (DMP) at airports. This final report summarizes the work conducted throughout the base year, with a focus on use case specification for the what-if analysis capability and the implementation of the What-if Analysis Tool and its application to traffic and weather scenarios at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT).

NRA Final Report↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Spacecraft Power Systems Using the SPACE Code

The NASA Glenn Research Center’s Power Architecture and Analysis Branch performs spacecraft electrical power system (EPS) performance analysis using the System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE) model. Accurately predicting EPS performance requires a wide range of inputs, including the spacecraft’s position, attitude, solar array temperature, load demand, and data on the EPS itself. By operating as a combined analysis tool with integrated orbit mechanics, attitude, shadowing, thermal, solar array, battery, and electrical component models, SPACE provides flexibility for the analyst to examine various scenarios without a time-consuming iterative process involving separate analysis tools and groups. SPACE also achieves short run times by tailoring the complexity of the included models, providing enough fidelity to ensure accurate EPS performance predictions without being bogged down by unnecessary detail. These advantages that SPACE has over similar power system models has contributed to its successful use on a variety of human spaceflight programs for over three decades, and makes it applicable across the development cycle from early conceptual design up through on-orbit operations.

Electrical Power System↗

NASA NTRS1992

Automated Simulation For Analysis And Design

Design Assistant Workstation (DAWN) software being developed to facilitate simulation of qualitative and quantitative aspects of behavior of life-support system in spacecraft, chemical-processing plant, heating and cooling system of large building, or any of variety of systems including interacting process streams and processes. Used to analyze alternative design scenarios or specific designs of such systems. Expert system will automate part of design analysis: reason independently by simulating design scenarios and return to designer with overall evaluations and recommendations.

Cantwell, E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Flight deck engine advisor

The focus of this project is on alerting pilots to impending events in such a way as to provide the additional time required for the crew to make critical decisions concerning non-normal operations. The project addresses pilots' need for support in diagnosis and trend monitoring of faults as they affect decisions that must be made within the context of the current flight. Monitoring and diagnostic modules developed under the NASA Faultfinder program were restructured and enhanced using input data from an engine model and real engine fault data. Fault scenarios were prepared to support knowledge base development activities on the MONITAUR and DRAPhyS modules of Faultfinder. An analysis of the information requirements for fault management was included in each scenario. A conceptual framework was developed for systematic evaluation of the impact of context variables on pilot action alternatives as a function of event/fault combinations.

Shontz, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Independent Verification and Validation (IV and V) - Adding Mission Assurance to NASA Flight Software

The NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Facility objective is to identify potential defects in flight software using independent analysis techniques. This paper describes the tailored IV&V techniques that have been developed in support of critical interactions on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) project, scheduled to launch in November, 2011. The IV&V techniques for interface analysis use independently developed sequence diagrams of critical scenarios. The results from these analyses have had a positive impact on the requirements flow down, consistency amongst MSL requirements and identification of missing requirements. The results of these analyses and the positive impact to the MSL project are provided.

performance evaluation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of the Suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis for Identification of Top Injury Risks in Lunar Missions and Training

A new Exploration Extravehicular Activity Services (xEVAS) suit is being designed to replace the current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Artemis program to return astronauts to the lunar surface. This new suit will allow for increased range of motion compared to the current EMU and Apollo era suits and additional features will enhance the health and safety of exploration. With the design of lunar missions and the xEVAS suit progressing, it is important to consider possible injuries and injury mechanisms that could occur in the suit. To address these concerns, the suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis (IMEA) was developed to outline suited injury scenarios and rank them based on risk score. The IMEA documents possible scenarios and underlying mechanisms of injury. History has shown that more suit injuries occur during training than in flight; therefore, currently planned training events to prepare for lunar missions and tasks during lunar surface EVAs were considered. Each scenario is ranked with likelihood and consequence scorings based on our current understanding of suit and application of Artemis design reference missions. The scoring allowed identification of the high-risk cases that will drive further work in suited injury. Mechanisms of injury, injury outcomes, and mitigation strategies are evaluated within each scenario. The Suited Injury Summit was held on January 5, 2022, to vet the IMEA with external experts. This was an all-day virtual meeting with the suited injury team; ergonomists; suit engineers; safety engineers; the flight operations directorate; flight doctors; astronauts; astronaut strength, conditioning, and rehabilitation specialists (ASCRS); and external subject matter experts (SMEs). External SMEs consisted of surgeons with varying specialties. The intent of this meeting was to walk through the top injury risks identified in the analysis, identify any gaps that were not captured, and discuss mitigations. With participation from all groups, countless lessons-learned came from the Summit meeting. Using these, the top 10 risks have been identified: neutral buoyancy laboratory training, hand/glove injuries, poor suit fit, field training, specific EVA tasks/design of task, boots/ankle injuries, falls from heights, background radiation, repetitive contact, and ambulation/longdistance ambulation. Mitigation steps have also been determined for each of the top risks. The IMEA and documentation of top risks is a living document. Yearly meetings are planned to update the analysis and reevaluate top risks and mitigations. The IMEA is being used to drive work in suited injury, and this work will continue to evolve with IMEA and lunar mission updates.

Teresa Reiber↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of the Suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis for Identification of Top Injury Risks in Lunar Missions and Training

A new Exploration Extravehicular Activity Suit (xEVAS) is being designed to replace the current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Artemis program to return astronauts to the lunar surface. This new suit will allow for increased range of motion compared the current EMU and Apollo era suits and will have additional features that will enhance the health and safety of exploration. With the design of lunar missions and the xEVAS progressing, it is important to consider possible injuries and injury mechanisms that could occur in the suit. To address these concerns, the suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis (IMEA) was developed to outline suited injury scenarios and rank them based on risk score. The IMEA documents possible scenarios and underlying mechanisms of injury while wearing an extravehicular activity (EVA) suit. Tasks during lunar surface EVA as well as training events to prepare for lunar missions were considered as history has shown that more suit injuries occur during training than in flight. Each scenario is ranked with a consequence and likelihood scoring based on our current understanding of the suit and Artemis design reference missions to identify high-risk cases that will drive further work in suited injury. Injuries, mechanisms of injury, and mitigation strategies are evaluated within each scenario. The Suited Injury Summit was held on January 5, 2022, to vet the IMEA with external experts. This was an all-day virtual meeting with the suited injury team, ergonomists, suit engineers, safety engineers, the flight operations directorate, flight doctors, astronauts, astronaut strength, conditioning, and rehabilitation specialists (ASCRS), and external subject matter experts (SMEs). External SMEs consisted of surgeons with varying specialties. The intent of this meeting was to walk through the top injury risks identified in the analysis, identify any gaps that were not captured, and discuss mitigations. With participation from all groups, countless lessons-learned came from the Summit meeting. Using the lessons-learned and discussion from the Summit, the top 10 risks have been identified: neutral buoyancy laboratory training, hand/glove injuries, poor suit fit, field training, specific EVA tasks/design of task, boots/ankle injuries, falls from heights, background radiation, repetitive contact, and ambulation/long-distance ambulation. Mitigation steps have also been determined for each of the top risks. The IMEA and documentation of top risks is a living document. Yearly meetings are planned to update the analysis and reevaluate top risks and mitigations. The IMEA is being used to drive work in suited injury, and this work will continue to evolve with IMEA and lunar mission updates.

Teresa Reiber↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of the Suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis for Identification of Top Injury Risks in Lunar Missions and Training

Tessa Reiber↗

NASA NTRS2007

Flight Mechanics of the Entry, Descent and Landing of the ExoMars Mission

ExoMars is ESA's current mission to planet Mars. A high mobility rover and a fixed station will be deployed on the surface of Mars. This paper regards the flight mechanics of the Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) phases used for the mission analysis and design of the Baseline and back-up scenarios of the mission. The EDL concept is based on a ballistic entry, followed by a descent under parachutes and inflatable devices (airbags) for landing. The mission analysis and design is driven by the flexibility in terms of landing site, arrival dates and the very stringent requirement in terms of landing accuracy. The challenging requirements currently imposed to the mission need innovative analysis and design techniques to support system design trade-offs to cope with the variability in entry conditions. The concept of the Global Entry Corridor has been conceived, designed, implemented and successfully validated as a key tool to provide a global picture of the mission capabilities in terms of landing site reachability.

HayaRamos, Rodrigo↗