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DOE OSTI2024

Calculating Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage Incentives on an Avoided Cost Basis

Behind-the-meter (BTM) energy storage offers the potential for shared investment by utilities and their customers, in which both parties share in the costs and benefits of battery investment. Several utilities and a handful of states have begun providing incentives to help customers purchase BTM energy storage, and in exchange, operate that battery on behalf of the customer to realize grid benefits such as meeting peak capacity needs. But there is wide variation in the value and structure of these incentives, suggesting a lack of clarity on the value of BTM storage to the grid and to non-participating customers who fund the incentives for participating customers. This paper provides an objective framework for establishing BTM energy storage incentives based on the avoided cost of generation from a marginal, gas-fired peaking plant. It also conducts several sensitivity analyses to see how those avoided costs vary with emissions pricing, gas prices, plant heat rates, and utility capital structures. This work may be of use to utilities, regulators, and energy system stakeholders in providing a value-based framework for BTM incentive programs that can be used in the absence of policy guidance.

Twitchell, Jeremy B.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Medium-Duty Delivery Truck Integrated Bidirectional Wireless Power Transfer System With Grid and Stationary Energy Storage System Connectivity

Electric vehicles (EVs) can provide power to the grid or buildings similar to distributed energy resources (DER) for energy balancing applications or optimizing the operation of the microgrids in harmony with the other DER assets. This article presents the operating modes of a bidirectional wireless power transfer (WPT) system designed for a medium-duty package delivery vehicle. The WPT system designed for this study can transfer 20 kW of power across 11 in of air gap using custom-designed double-D (DD) couplers with LCC–LCC tuning networks. The proposed system utilizes a 480-V three-phase grid connection, a plug-in hybrid delivery truck with bidirectional WPT, and a stationary energy storage system (SESS) that can be connected to the primary-side dc link. Due to the differences in primary and secondary dc bus voltages, and considering the voltage of the SESS, asymmetric voltage gains were used in the system. Sensitivity analyses of this system with respect to these voltage levels are presented. Five different operating modes of the grid, SESS, and the EV battery are investigated with experimental results. Control algorithms are described for grid-to-vehicle (G2V) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) operating modes. A bidirectional WPT system is operated with a power factor of 0.99 on the grid side in every operating mode. The EV battery was charged with 20.3 kW with an overall efficiency of 93.02% in the G2V operating mode. Finally, in the V2G operating mode, the WPT system provided 12.82 kW of power back to the grid with an overall efficiency of 89.08%.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating Materials Design Parameters of Hole-Selective Contacts for Silicon Heterojunction Solar Cells

Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) solar cell efficiencies are limited by parasitic absorption from the hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) front contact, but this may be mitigated by selecting an alternative carrier selective contact material with a wider band gap. When choosing such a material as the hole-selective contact (“p-layer”), the alignment of the material's valence band edge energy (E VB ) with that of crystalline silicon (c-Si) is an important criterion, but several other material parameters can also influence the band bending at the contact interface. Here, we simulate an (n)c-Si/(i)a-Si:H/p-layer interface to explore the influence of six materials parameters in a variable p-layer on the SHJ performance. We find a strong influence on the fill factor (FF) from thickness, doping, and E VB , and on V OC from the interfacial defect density; notably, optimal E VB is ~ 0.1 eV higher than the valence band edge energy of a-Si:H. Multiparameter sensitivity analyses demonstrate how performance is simultaneously influenced by E VB and doping; thus, both parameters should be optimized alongside one another. To assess the influence of these parameters experimentally, we grow p-type NiO x as a test-case p-layer, which shows that FFs decrease with the oxygen content likely from the increased misalignment of E VB . Although modest efficiencies are achieved experimentally (>7%), what is important is that our model simulates performance trends. With these results, we apply a materials discovery pipeline to suggest new materials (e.g., ZnTe and BeTe) to try as p-layers in the SHJ. This combination of simulations, experiments, and materials discovery informs a better understanding of contact selection in SHJ cells.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Energy Storage Schedules for Load Leveling and Ramp Rate Control in Distribution Systems

Continued integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the grid, such as solar PVs, at a large-scale, contributes into the famous Duck Curve. New DER management algorithms are therefore deemed necessary to alleviate rapid variations within net load profiles of distribution systems. Herein this paper proposes a process to determine the optimal energy storage schedules for leveling the distribution circuit feederhead net load. A series of sensitivity analyses shows how the proposed method can be used to determine the optimal energy storage schedules with different capacities, state of charge requirements, and net load ramp rate limitations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identifying Adversarial Cyber-Activity in Operational Technology Environments Using Bayesian Networks

Critical infrastructure and other operational technology (OT) environments face increasing cybersecurity risks from adversarial behavior. This paper describes the development of a risk model using a Bayesian network to enhance the comprehension of observable cyber events caused by malicious activity in OT environments. The core of the Bayesian network is a process model that describes the stages of adversary behavior. The remainder of the model is based on the MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems (ICS) taxonomy, which includes tactics and techniques that may be used by the adversary. The observables provide evidence for adversary behavior through the intermediary technique and tactic nodes. One challenge in constructing this model is a lack of open-source data from cyber-attacks on OT systems. This paper discusses learning from limited data, the elicitation of expert opinion to construct the conditional probability tables when data is scarce, and the refinement of the most difficult conditional probabilities tables using several forms of sensitivity analyses. Finally, the Bayesian network is demonstrated using two historical case studies: the DarkSide ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline and the destructive cyberattack targeting the ThyssenKrupp blast furnace. Index Terms—Cybersecurity, industrial control systems, operational technology

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Integrating Topology Reconfiguration and Vehicle-to-Grid Technologies on Distribution System Operation

Autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) provide unique opportunities to cope with the uncertainties of distributed energy generation in distribution networks. But the effects are limited by both inherent radial topology and the behaviors of decentralized AEVs. As such, we investigate the potential benefits of dynamic distribution network reconfiguration (DDNR), taking into account AEVs' spatial-temporal availability and their charging demand. We propose a mixed integer programming model to optimally coordinate the charging/discharging of AEVs with DDNR, while satisfying AEVs' original travel plan. Numerical studies based on a test system overlaying the IEEE 33-node test feeder and Sioux Falls transportation network show that DDNR and AEV complement each other, which improves the operation of the distribution system. We also conduct sensitivity analyses on inputs including renewable fluctuation and AEVs penetration level.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Agent-Based Simulation of Price-Demand Dynamics in Multi-Service Charging Station

As the adoption of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles grows, understanding how dynamic pricing strategies influence charging and refueling behaviors becomes crucial for optimizing local energy markets. This paper proposes a simulation-based analysis of a hydrogen-electricity integrated charging station that serves both types of vehicles. A multi-agent simulation framework is developed to model the interactions between vehicles and the station, incorporating price- and delay-sensitive behaviors in decision-making. The station can dynamically adjust energy prices, while vehicles optimize their charging or refueling choices based on their utility values. A series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate how electricity pricing, infrastructure capacity, and waiting behavior impact station performance. Results highlight that moderate electricity prices maximize user participation without sacrificing profit, infrastructure should be right-sized to demand to avoid over- or underutilization, and delay-toleration also affects service outcomes, which may reach the maximum service coverage at the threshold of 45 minutes.

Wang, Xudong [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of Hurricane Harvey flood event through coupled hydrologic-hydraulic models: Challenges and next steps

Using the 2017 Hurricane Harvey flood event as a test case, this study set up a series of sensitivity analyses to highlight three challenges associated with large-scale flood inundation modeling, including (a) model parameterization, (b) errors in digital elevation models, and (c) effects of reservoir retention. Driven by radar-based hourly rainfall data, a series of hydrologic-hydraulic models including the VIC hydrologic model, RAPID routing model, and Flood2D-GPU hydrodynamic model are set up over Harris County, Texas, to simulate flood inundation and hazards. The results demonstrate the importance of hydrologic parameters in improving flood modeling. For a large flood event such as Hurricane Harvey, the effect of the initial water depths is insignificant. The Manning's n values may increase the peak water depth by ~1%, the flood extents by 65km 2 , and the high danger zone by ~6%. On the contrary, the bathymetry correction factors may reduce the flood extent by ~1.4% and the high-danger zone by ~4%. Reducing the reservoir storage capacity to 1% may increase the flood extent by ~4% and the high-danger zone by ~17%. This study may provide supporting information to guide and prioritize the development of future high-performance computing hydrodynamic large-scale flood simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Economic evaluation of the Hepatitis C virus elimination program in the country of Georgia, 2015 to 2017

Abstract Background and Aims In 2015, the country of Georgia launched an elimination program aiming to reduce the prevalence of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 90% from 5.4% prevalence (~150 000 people). During the first 2.5 years of the program, 770 832 people were screened, 48 575 were diagnosed with active HCV infection, and 41 483 patients were treated with direct‐acting antiviral (DAA)‐based regimens, with a >95% cure rate. Methods We modelled the incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER) of HCV screening, diagnosis and treatment between April 2015 and November 2017 compared to no treatment, in terms of cost per quality‐adjusted life year (QALY) gained in 2017 US dollars, with a 3% discount rate over 25 years. We compared the ICER to willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) thresholds of US$4357 (GDP) and US$871 (opportunity cost) per QALY gained. Results The average cost of screening, HCV viremia testing, and treatment per patient treated was $386 to the provider, $225 to the patient and $1042 for generic DAAs. At 3% discount, 0.57 QALYs were gained per patient treated. The ICER from the perspective of the provider including generic DAAs was $2285 per QALY gained, which is cost‐effective at the $4357 WTP threshold, while if patient costs are included, it is just above the threshold at $4398/QALY. All other scenarios examined in sensitivity analyses remain cost‐effective except for assuming a shorter time horizon to the end of 2025 or including the list price DAA cost. Reducing or excluding DAA costs reduced the ICER below the opportunity‐cost WTP threshold. Conclusions The Georgian HCV elimination program provides valuable evidence that national programs for scaling up HCV screening and treatment for achieving HCV elimination can be cost‐effective.

Tskhomelidze, Irina↗

DOE OSTI2022

Shock Tube and Flame Speed Measurements of 2,4,4-Trimethyl-1-Pentene: A Co-Optima Biofuel

Abstract The combustion of 2,4,4-trimethyl-1-pentene (diisobutylene, C8H16), which is a biofuel and a component of surrogate fuels, is examined in this work. Carbon monoxide time–histories and ignition delay times are collected behind reflected shock waves utilizing a shock tube and mid-infrared laser absorption spectroscopy. Measurements were obtained near 10 atm pressure during stoichiometric oxidation of 0.15%C8H16/O2/Ar. Simulated results from chemical kinetic models are provided, and sensitivity analyses are used to discuss differences between models for both ignition delay times and carbon monoxide formation. In addition, laminar burning speeds are obtained at 1 atm, 428 K, and equivalence ratios, phi, between 0.91 and 1.52 inside a spherical chamber facility. Measured burning speeds are found to be less than that of ethanol over the equivalence ratio span. Burning speed measurements are compared to predictions of chemical kinetic mechanisms and are in agreement for the richest conditions; however, at lean conditions, the model predicts a far slower-burning speed. The maximum burning speed occurs at an equivalence ratio of 1.08 with a magnitude of 0.70 m/s. The current work provides the crucial experimental data needed for assessing the feasibility of this biofuel and for the development of future combustion chemical kinetics models.

Energy & Fuels↗

DOE OSTI2022

Chapter 2: Evaluating a Concentrating Solar Power Plantas an Extended-Duration Peaking Resource

We explore the ability of a concentrating solar power (CSP) plant with thermal energy storage (TES) to provide peaking capacity. We focus on future power systems, wherein net load patterns may be significantly different than they are today (e.g., due to higher renewable-energy penetrations). We examine 28 locations in the southwestern United States over an 18-year period. The hourly operation of the CSP plants are simulated to determine their potential to provide energy during an eight-hour peak-load window for each day up to 365 days per year. Our result shows that for the large majority of locations and years, CSP plants with certain configurations (i.e., in terms of solar field and TES sizes) can provide nearly 100% peak-load capacity. We examine also the amount of supplemental energy (e.g.,by using natural gas as a supplemental thermal-energy source) that would be required to ensure that a CSP plant could serve the eight highest-load hours of every day of the year. We find that in most cases, a CSP plant supplemented with natural gas would require less than 5% of the fuel that is used by a natural-gas fired power plant providing the same level of reliable capacity. A series of sensitivity analyses show that these results are robust to the number of peak-load hours and days that are considered and the configuration of the CSP plant.

capacity value↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the Effect of Electrochemical Properties and Microstructure on the Microgalvanic Corrosion of Mg Alloys via Phase-Field Simulations

In this work, we apply a phase-field model to gain insights into the corrosion behavior of Mg alloys. Specifically, we study the effect of electrochemical properties of the materials and their environment and the spatial distribution of second phases in a magnesium alloy. To this end, we perform sensitivity analyses in which we separately vary the exchange current density and corrosion potential of the second phase, as well as the electrolyte conductivity. We describe the effects of these parameters on the corrosion current and the resulting corrosion-front morphology. We also confirm that the ratio between the Wagner length, calculated for the anodic phase, and the initial width of the anodic domain is a good predictor of the morphological characteristic of the corroding surface. In addition, we examine the effect of the microstructure on the corrosion behavior in both 2D and 3D systems by varying the shape, size, and distribution of the second-phase regions. Our findings provide insights into the influence of the two-phase microstructure on the corrosion behavior in a magnesium alloy.

Electrochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2020

Tapsolver: A Python Package For The Simulation And Analysis Of Tap Reactor Experiments

TAPsolver is a python package, which automates TAP simulation and analysis routines. TAPsolver is built around the python packages FEniCS and Dolfin-Adjoint, which help take advantage of model adjoints to provide automatic derivatives. TAPsolver is flexible, with reaction mechanisms and rate constants that can be set through input files that allow users to take advantage of the different functionalities, which include sensitivity analyses, parameter optimization and uncertainty quantification.

Yonge, Adam↗

DOE OSTI2021

WaterTAP3 (The Water Technoeconomic Assessment Pipe-Parity Platform)

The Water Technoeconomic Assessment Pipe-Parity Platform (WaterTAP3) was developed under the National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) to facilitate consistent technoeconomic assessments of desalination treatment trains. The WaterTAP3 is an analytically robust modeling tool that can be used to evaluate water technology cost, energy, environmental, and resiliency tradeoffs across different water sources, sectors, and scales. The model simulates steady-state water treatment train performance and costs including flow and constituent mass balance across unit processes, based on source water conditions, configurations of treatment technologies, and system-level techno-economic assumptions. Users can build a new treatment train by connecting any number of unit processes, specific for their context and system, or selecting a train from the treatment train library. The model contains various technical and cost parameter options for a range of treatment processes and a library of influent water quality characteristics for a variety of source waters and case studies. Users can customize water quality parameters to evaluate the technology performance in their context. The model can be set up for different assessment needs including simulation, optimization, and uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The results from WaterTAP3 can help identify trade-offs among the different system performance metrics, with insight on how particular technologies or systems promote pipe-parity. The flexibility and comprehensive scope of the tool makes it a promising solution to industry-wide water technoeconomic evaluations, leading to more informed water investment decisions and technologies. As a user-friendly, open-source platform, WaterTAP3 can be used by industry, academia, policymakers, planners, and those with or without extensive analytical experience.

Miara, Ariel↗

DOE OSTI2021

Calibr8 v.1.0

Calibr8 provides an application to rapidly prototype and perform material model calibration for complex plasticity models using advanced adjoint or forward sensitivity analyses for execution on massively parallel machines. These techniques can be orders of magnitude faster than traditional finite difference approaches for material model calibration. The underlying technology used in Calibr8 is automatic differentiation, which allows for the rapid implementation and testing of new plasticity models within its framework. Additionally, Calibr8 can perform adjoint-based error estimation to approximate discretization errors for user-implemented plasticity models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-10630 O

Granzow, BrianN.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Water Technoeconomic Assessment Pipe-Parity Platform (WaterTAP3)

Miara, Ariel↗

DOE OSTI2022

ILI Code

This R code consists of three scripts, described below. 1. ILI_LHC_sample.R The first script generate 10,000 samples from the total parameter space formed by the ranges of the following five parameters inputted into the ILI model: transmission rate (beta), per capita rate of progress from exposed to infectious state (gamma_1), per capita rate of progress through initial infectious state (gamma_2), per capita rate of progress through hospitalized state (gamma_3), and per capita rate of progress through non-hospitalized infectious state (gamma_4). The output is LHS_samples.csv, for input into the global sensitivity script, ILI_SEIR. 2. ILI_SEIR.R The second script solves a standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infected- Recovered (SEIR) model (a system of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs)), runs global sensitivity analyses, and generates plots showing the impact of the input variables on the response variables for each virus. 3. virus_sims.R The third script solves a standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infected- Recovered (SEIR) model (a system of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs)), aimed at modeling outbreaks for five common upper respiratory viruses within a contained population. The output of this code is an epidemic curve to show timing and magnitude of the epidemic peak for each virus. Note: for all three scripts, the parameter values must be hard-coded by the user or the output will not be accurate.

Spencer, Julie↗

DOE OSTI2023

ProFAST (Production Financial Analysis Scenario Tool) [SWR-23-88]

The Production Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (ProFAST) provides a quick and convenient in-depth financial analysis for production facilities. The model uses a generally accepted accounting principles analysis framework and provides annual projections of income statements, cash flow statements, and balance sheets. ProFAST allows users to calculate the levelized cost of the produced commodity by providing an expected financial performance, or on the other hand, calculate the financial performance based on an input price. Model inputs generally capital expenditures, operating expenditures, and financing structure. The programmatic approach of ProFAST allows users to easily perform large sensitivity analyses and integrates easily with other python tools.

Kee, Jamie↗