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At least 253 records · Page 14

Overview on the study of the solar cycle from space

Recent insights into the workings of the solar system are reviewed as factors to be considered when formulating key questions to be answered during a large scale program to study the solar cycle. The main objectives of the Solar Cycle and Dynamics Mission are to determine the causes (physical origins and mechanisms) of the solar cycle and the effects of these mechanisms on the heliosphere, the vast region that includes the corona, interplanetary medium, and the terrestrial environment. The mission should be able to obtain synoptic data on solar variability associated with the cycle, and over at least a fraction of a single 11-year cycle.

Noyes, R. W.↗

Solar weather/climate predictions

Solar variability influences upon terrestrial weather and climate are addressed. Both the positive and negative findings are included and specific predictions, areas of further study, and recommendations listed.

Schatten, K. H.↗

The Schwarzschild criterion for convection in the presence of a magnetic field

The Schwarzschild criterion governing the onset of convective instability has been modified to include magnetic field. This may be of importance for solar variability. The revised condition suggests that the underside of field layers are stabilizing and the upper side destabilizing. Absolute instability can be reached to achieve conventional magnetic buoyancy. This may explain the inverse correlation between the time intervals between sunspot minima and sunspot maxima with the maximum values of sunspot number, which is found to be significant at the 5.5 sigma level.

Schatten, K. H.↗

Solar terrestrial observatory

Eight basic solar-terrestrial scientific objectives that benefit from the Shuttle/Platform approach and a program of measurements for each are discussed. The objectives are to understand: (1) solar variability, (2) wave-particle processes, (3) magnetosphere-ionosphere mass transport, (4) the global electric circuit, (5) upper atmospheric dynamics, (6) middle atmospheric chemistry and energetics, (7) lower atmospheric turbidity, and (8) planetary atmospheric waves. A two stage approach to a multidisciplinary payload is developed: an initial STO, that uses a single platform in a low-Earth orbit, and an advanced STO that uses two platforms in differing orbits.

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Climatic response to a time varying solar constant

Recent measurements of the solar constant, theoretical arguments, and climatic measurements combined with signal processing suggest the possibility that the solar constant varies significantly on time scales ranging from billions of years to 11-yr (sunspot) cycles, and even to scales of a few weeks. Simple climate models with a time varying solar constant are examined here, with emphasis on the heat balance models (North et al., 1981). Linear heat balance model results are presented for high (10 cycles/yr) and low (0.1 cycle/yr) frequencies, providing a useful guide in estimating the direct heat response to solar variability.

North, G. R.↗

Analysis of upper stratospheric Umkehr ozone profile data for trends and the effects of stratospheric aerosols

The effect of stratospheric aerosols on Umkehr estimates of long-term ozone depletion associated with chlorofluoromethanes (CFMs) is considered in a statistical time series trend analysis. Time series models are estimated using monthly averages of Umkehr measurements made over the last 15 to 20 years. The time series regression models incorporate seasonal, trend and noise factors and an additional factor to account for the effects of atmospheric aerosols on the Umkehr measurements. The analysis indicates a statistically significant relation with atmospheric aerosol transmission in the Umkehr layers and implies that the relation is an important factor in any time series trend analysis of Umkehr data. Taking this relation into account, statistically significant negative trends were found in the Upper Umkehr layers. It is pointed out that upper stratospheric ozone could be sensitive to long-term solar variability as well as other possible influences in addition to CFM-induced effects, and therefore the cause or causes of the estimated trend cannot be unambiguously estimated using current Umkehr data.

Reinsel, G. C.↗

Research study: Studies in atmospheric processes from Space Platforms

Activities of the project for studies in atmospheric processes from space platforms are described. Topics include feasibility studies for a Low Altitude Research Satellite system, a satellite borne Doppler lidar wind monitoring system, the relationship between solar variability and weather, atmospheric modeling, cloud physics, and aerosol studies.

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Comparisons of the North Polar Cap of Mars and the Earth's Northern Hemisphere snow cover

The boundaries of the polar caps of Mars have been measured on more than 3000 photographs since 1905 from the plate collection at the Lowell Observatory. For the Earth the polar caps have been accurately mapped only since the mid 1960's when satellites were first available to synoptically view the polar regions. The polar caps of both planets wax and wane in response to changes in the seasons, and interannual differences in polar cap behavior on Mars as well as Earth are intimately linked to global energy balance. In this study data on the year to year variations in the extent of the polar caps of Mars and Earth were assembled and analyzed together with data on annual variations in solar activity to determine if associations exist between these data. It was found that virtually no correlation exists between measurements of Mars north polar cap and solar variability. An inverse relationship was found between variations in the size of the north polar caps of Mars and Earth, although only 6 years of concurrent data were available for comparison.

Foster, J.↗

A study of periodicities and recurrences in solar activity and cosmic ray modulation

The 154d periodicity was found in the cosmic ray intensity (RE) vs Flares, and some other peaks of coherency in the RC vs aa sub I, that when interpreted as aliased values, might correspond to recurring interplanetary magnetic field structures and solar wind streams. It cannot be excluded, however, that some of the correspondence with aa are of terrestrial origin. This study cannot be considered exhaustive due to the fact that other solar variables, such as polar hole size, are possibly correlated to cosmic ray intensities. However, the number of observations is small so that the interpretation of the results is very difficult.

Attolini, M. R.↗

The vertical structure of limb hazes in the Martian atmosphere

Vertical distribution and reflectance properties of aerosols in the Martian atmosphere are presented, based on Viking Orbiter images containing the planetary limb. Profiles of scattered light above the limb are used to constrain the temporal and spatial behavior of the aerosols. The data cover a wide range of seasons, locations, and viewing geometries. The typical atmospheric column contains one or more discrete, optically thin, ice-like haze layers between 30 and 90 km elevation, depending on the season, whose composition is inferred to be water ice. Below the detached hazes there is a continuous haze extending to the surface. The continuous haze is rarely above 50 km and is much redder in color than the detached hazes above, implying a composition that has a strong dust component. The aerosol distribution exhibits solid seasonal control inferred to be driven by the variable solar flux around the orbit of Mars.

Jaquin, Fred↗

Thermal design, analysis and testing of the Halogen Occultation Experiment

This paper briefly introduces the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and describes the thermal requirements in some detail. The thermal design of the HALOE is described, together with the design process and the analytical techniques used to arrive at this design. The flight hardware has undergone environmental testing in a thermal vacuum chamber to validate the thermal design. The HALOE is a unique problem in thermal control due to its variable solar loading, its extremely sensitive optical components and the high degree of pointing accuracy required. This paper describes the flight hardware, the design process and its verification.

Foss, Richard A.↗

Nimbus-7 ERB Solar Analysis Tape (ESAT) user's guide

Seven years and five months of Nimbus-7 Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) solar data are available on a single ERB Solar Analysis Tape (ESAT). The period covered is November 16, 1978 through March 31, 1986. The Nimbus-7 satellite performs approximately 14 orbits per day and the ERB solar telescope observes the sun once per orbit as the satellite crosses the southern terminator. The solar data were carefully calibrated and screened. Orbital and daily mean values are given for the total solar irradiance plus other spectral intervals (10 solar channels in all). In addition, selected solar activity indicators are included on the ESAT. The ESAT User's Guide is an update of the previous ESAT User's Guide (NASA TM 86143) and includes more detailed information on the solar data calibration, screening procedures, updated solar data plots, and applications to solar variability. Details of the tape format, including source code to access ESAT, are included.

Major, Eugene↗

Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases - An assessment of their relative roles in global climate change

Many mechanisms, including variations in solar radiation and atmospheric aerosol concentrations, compete with anthropogenic greenhouse gases as causes of global climate change. Comparisons of available data show that solar variability will not counteract greenhouse warming and that future observations will need to be made to quantify the role of tropospheric aerosols, for example.

Hansen, James E.↗

NOAA/TIROS and GOES Observations of Galactic and Solar Cosmic Rays over a Solar Cycle

Correlations between solar activity and atmospheric processes have been investigated for more than 30 years, and the reality of the strong correlations found has been well accepted. However, it remains problematic to establish mechanisms capable of coupling the physical manifestations of solar variability to the lower atmosphere. There has been to date a lack of long-term satellite measurements of particles of sufficient energy to penetrate the Earth's atmosphere. The NOAA Space Environment Laboratory has maintained energetic particle detectors on board the NOAA/TIROS and GOES series of satellites. These instruments monitor the flux of energetic protons to energies greater than about 800 MeV. Measurements of particles above 350 MeV began October 1978, and continue to date. The instruments are briefly described, along with the current program to reduce the data. The goal is to provide a data base that will help to assess the significance of variations of atmospheric and ionospheric properties due to energetic particle precipitation.

Sauer, Herbert H.↗

Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

Tinsley, Brian A.↗

Climatic impact of volcanic eruptions

Studies have attempted to 'isolate' the volcanic signal in noisy temperature data. This assumes that it is possible to isolate a distinct volcanic signal in a record that may have a combination of forcings (ENSO, solar variability, random fluctuations, volcanism) that all interact. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on temperatures in regions where the effects of aerosol clouds may be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns. This is especially true in subpolar and midlatitude areas affected by changes in the position of the polar front. Such climatic perturbation can be detected in proxy evidence such as decrease in tree-ring widths and frost rings, changes in the treeline, weather anomalies, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures. In low latitudes, sudden temperature drops were correlated with the passage overhead of the volcanic dust cloud (Stothers, 1984). For some eruptions, such as Tambora, 1815, these kinds of proxy and anectdotal information were summarized in great detail in a number of papers and books (e.g., Post, 1978; Stothers, 1984; Stommel and Stommel, 1986; C. R. Harrington, in press). These studies lead to the general conclusion that regional effects on climate, sometimes quite severe, may be the major impact of large historical volcanic aerosol clouds.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

Precipitating relativistic electrons - Their long-term effect on stratospheric odd nitrogen levels

Using electron count rate data at geostationary orbit, daily energy spectra, extending from 30 keV to 15 MeV, have been developed for trapped relativistic electrons at 6.6 earth radii. These spectra have been used to model the flux of these electrons into the atmosphere at 120 km. Energy deposition calculations permit daily sources of HO(x) and NO(y) to be calculated at auroral and subauroral latitudes due to relativistic electron precipitation (REP) for the period June 13, 1979, through June 4, 1988. Both short-term and long-term source variations are quite large over the period considered. The results suggest that a significant contribution to the anomalously large and unexplained global O3 declines between 1979 and 1985 has been made by the catalytic destruction of O3 by odd nitrogen in the lower stratosphere at mid to high latitudes. The results also provide evidence for a clear and strong linkage between solar variability, the state of the magnetosphere, and the chemical climatological state of the middle and lower atmosphere.

Callis, Linwood B.↗

Ulysses

The DSN (Deep Space Network) mission support requirements for Ulysses are summarized. The primary goal of the Ulysses mission is to explore the Sun, its environment, and possible links between solar variability and terrestrial weather and climate. The Ulysses spacecraft will be injected into an interplanetary orbit toward Jupiter after which the spacecraft travels in a heliocentric, out-of-ecliptic orbit with high heliographic inclination. The Ulysses mission objectives are outlined and the DSN support requirements are defined through the presentation of tables and narratives describing the spacecraft flight profile; DSN support coverage; frequency assignments; support parameters for telemetry, command and support systems; and tracking support responsibility.

Meeks, W.↗