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248 records · Page 14

Estimating rates and patterns of diversification with incomplete sampling: a case study in the rosids

Premise Recent advances in generating large‐scale phylogenies enable broad‐scale estimation of species diversification. These now common approaches typically are characterized by (1) incomplete species coverage without explicit sampling methodologies and/or (2) sparse backbone representation, and usually rely on presumed phylogenetic placements to account for species without molecular data. We used empirical examples to examine the effects of incomplete sampling on diversification estimation and provide constructive suggestions to ecologists and evolutionary biologists based on those results. Methods We used a supermatrix for rosids and one well‐sampled subclade (Cucurbitaceae) as empirical case studies. We compared results using these large phylogenies with those based on a previously inferred, smaller supermatrix and on a synthetic tree resource with complete taxonomic coverage. Finally, we simulated random and representative taxon sampling and explored the impact of sampling on three commonly used methods, both parametric (RPANDA and BAMM) and semiparametric (DR). Results We found that the impact of sampling on diversification estimates was idiosyncratic and often strong. Compared to full empirical sampling, representative and random sampling schemes either depressed or inflated speciation rates, depending on methods and sampling schemes. No method was entirely robust to poor sampling, but BAMM was least sensitive to moderate levels of missing taxa. Conclusions We suggest caution against uncritical modeling of missing taxa using taxonomic data for poorly sampled trees and in the use of summary backbone trees and other data sets with high representative bias, and we stress the importance of explicit sampling methodologies in macroevolutionary studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

TriC: Distributed-memory Triangle Counting by Exploiting the Graph Structure

Graph analytics has emerged as an important tool in the analysis of large scale data from diverse application domains such as social networks, cyber security and bioinformatics. Counting the number of triangles in a graph is a fundamental kernel with several applications such as detecting the community structure of a graph or in identifying important vertices in a graph. The ubiquity of massive datasets is driving the need to scale graph analytics on parallel systems. However, numerous challenges exist in efficiently parallelizing graph algorithms, especially on distributed-memory systems. Irregular memory accesses and communication patterns, low computation to communication ratios, and the need for frequent synchronization are some of the leading challenges. In this paper, we present TriC, our distributed-memory implementation of triangle counting in graphs using the Message Passing Interface (MPI), as a submission to the 2020 GraphChallenge competition. Using a set of synthetic and real-world inputs from the challenge, we demonstrate a speedup of up to 90x relative to previous work on 32 processor-cores of a NERSC Cori node. We also provide details from distributed runs with up to8192 processes along with strong scaling results. The observations presented in this work provide an understanding of the system-level bottlenecks at scale that specifically impact sparse-irregular workloads and will therefore benefit other efforts to parallelize graph algorithms.

Halappanavar, Mahantesh↗

An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region

Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.

Simulated ground-motion database↗

Methodology for the development of empirical models relating 13C NMR spectral features to fuel properties

Effective formulation of new gasoline or diesel fuels for internal combustion engines would benefit from the development of reliable models for predicting key fuel properties based on a set of molecular descriptors obtained from a single measurement. This is particularly relevant in the case of renewable fuels, where the available fuel sample quantity may be limited. In this work, we present a statistically-based methodology for building empirical models to predict multiple properties from one-dimensional 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra measured on around 200 microliters of a liquid fuel. NMR spectra contain information about the molecular composition of a sample and the carbon types and molecular substructures therein. Our approach uses this information to build sparse, interpretable models, where the predicted properties are linked to specific molecular features. The approach takes into consideration the constrained nature of the features making up the one-dimensional NMR spectrum, which, after standardization, represent a relative fuel composition. We point to the limitations in interpretability that arise when building this type of empirical predictive model and suggest how these limitations may be diminished. Among the many properties important for maximizing engine performance and minimizing emissions, we build models that predict derived cetane number and distillation temperatures as these are of particular interest because of their links to fuel economy, drivability, and engine-out emissions. Results suggest that the properties of interest may be impacted by only a few of the 27 13C NMR regions represented in the data, pointing to new directions for further testing in the development of improved fuels.

predictive models, biofuels., NMR Analysis↗

kynema-fmb [SWR-23-07]

Kynema-FMB (FKA: Kynema) is an open-source performance portable flexible multibody (FMB) dynamics solver designed for time-domain simulations. While originally tailored for wind turbine structural dynamics, the formulation and implementation are those of a general flexible-multidbody dynamics solver that can readily be applied to a wide range of systems. Kynema was designed with a narrow focus, namely to provide a lightweight, fast, accurate FMD solver for coupling to computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) codes, especially the CFD codes in the Kynema suite, for fluid-structure-interaction (FSI) simulations. Kynema-FMB is equipped to model systems that can be represented as a collection of beams and rigid bodies that are connected through constraints. Degrees of freedom are defined in the inertial/global frame of reference and include displacements and rotations (formally as rotation matrices, but stored as quaternions). The underlying formulation is built on a Lie-group time integrator designed for index-3 differential-algebraic equations, which is second-order accurate in time (Bruls et al., 2012). Beam models are based on geometrically exact beam theory and are discretized as high-order spectral finite elements similar to those in BeamDyn (Wang et al., 2017). The governing equations for a FMD system like a wind turbine constitute a highly nonlinear system of constrained partial-differential equations. Kynema-FMB uses analytical Jacobians in the nonlinear-system solves in each time step. Linear systems use sparse storage and several third-party sparse-linear-system solvers are enabled. Ill conditioning of linear systems is mitigated with preconditioning described in Bottasso et al, 2008. Kynema-FMB is integrated with a simple open-source controller (ROSCO). There is an application programming interface (API) for coupling to geometry-resolved CFD (like that in Sharma et al., 2023) and actuator-force CFD (like that in Kuhn et al., 2025). In the latter, for actuator-line models, Kynema-FMB includes an internal blade-element solver that depends on user-provided lookup tables for coefficients of lift and drag, i.e., aerodynamic polars. Kynema-FMB is written in C++ and leverages Kokkos and Kokkos-Kernels (KokkosEcosystem) as its performance portability layer enabling simulations on both CPU and GPU systems. The repository is equipped with extensive automated testing at the unit and regression/system levels. The following describes the high-level development objectives conceived for Kynema: *Kynema will follow modern software development best practices, including test-driven development (TDD), version control, hierarchical automated testing, and continuous integration (CI) for a robust development environment. *The core data structures are memory efficient and enable vectorization and parallelization at multiple levels. *Data structures are data-oriented to exploit methods for accelerated computing including high utilization of chip resources (e.g., single instruction multiple data (SIMD) instruction sets) and parallelization using GP-GPUs. *The computational algorithms incorporate robust open-source libraries for mathematical operations, resource allocation, and data management. *The API design considers multiple stakeholder needs and ensure integration with existing and future ecosystems for data science, machine learning, and AI. *Kynema-FMB is written in modern C++ and leverages Kokkos as its performance-portability library with inspiration from the kynema stack.

Sprague, MichaelA.↗

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Analytics for Investigation of Disease Outbreaks: Web-Based Analytics Facilitating Situational Awareness in Unfolding Disease Outbreaks

Background: Information from historical infectious disease outbreaks provides real-world data about outbreaks and their impacts on affected populations. These data can be used to develop a picture of an unfolding outbreak in its early stages, when incoming information is sparse and isolated, to identify effective control measures and guide their implementation. Objective: This study aimed to develop a publicly accessible Web-based visual analytic called Analytics for the Investigation of Disease Outbreaks (AIDO) that uses historical disease outbreak information for decision support and situational awareness of an unfolding outbreak. Methods: We developed an algorithm to allow the matching of unfolding outbreak data to a representative library of historical outbreaks. This process provides epidemiological clues that facilitate a user’s understanding of an unfolding outbreak and facilitates informed decisions about mitigation actions. Disease-specific properties to build a complete picture of the unfolding event were identified through a data-driven approach. A method of analogs approach was used to develop a short-term forecasting feature in the analytic. The 4 major steps involved in developing this tool were (1) collection of historic outbreak data and preparation of the representative library, (2) development of AIDO algorithms, (3) development of user interface and associated visuals, and (4) verification and validation. Results: The tool currently includes representative historical outbreaks for 39 infectious diseases with over 600 diverse outbreaks. We identified 27 different properties categorized into 3 broad domains (population, location, and disease) that were used to evaluate outbreaks across all diseases for their effect on case count and duration of an outbreak. Statistical analyses revealed disease-specific properties from this set that were included in the disease-specific similarity algorithm. Although there were some similarities across diseases, we found that statistically important properties tend to vary, even between similar diseases. This may be because of our emphasis on including diverse representative outbreak presentations in our libraries. AIDO algorithm evaluations (similarity algorithm and short-term forecasting) were conducted using 4 case studies and we have shown details for the Q fever outbreak in Bilbao, Spain (2014), using data from the early stages of the outbreak. Using data from only the initial 2 weeks, AIDO identified historical outbreaks that were very similar in terms of their epidemiological picture (case count, duration, source of exposure, and urban setting). The short-term forecasting algorithm accurately predicted case count and duration for the unfolding outbreak. Conclusions: AIDO is a decision support tool that facilitates increased situational awareness during an unfolding outbreak and enables informed decisions on mitigation strategies. AIDO analytics are available to epidemiologists across the globe with access to internet, at no cost. In this study, we presented a new approach to applying historical outbreak data to provide actionable information during the early stages of an unfolding infectious disease outbreak.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

SMALE: Enhancing Scalability of Machine Learning Algorithms on Extreme-Scale Computing Platforms

Deployment and execution of machine learning tasks on extreme-scale computing platforms face several significant technical challenges: 1) High computing cost incurred by dense networks – The computing workload of deep networks with densely-connected topology increases rapidly with the network size, imposing a non-scalable computing model of extreme-scale computing platforms; 2) Non-optimized workload distribution – Many advanced deep learning algorithms, e.g., sparsification and irregular net-work topology, produce very unbalanced workload distribution on extreme-scale computing platforms. The computation efficiency is greatly hindered by the incurred data and computation redundancies as well as long tails of the node with extensive workload; 3) Constraints in data movement and I/O bottle-neck – Inter-node data movement in extreme-scale computing platforms are associated with high energy and latency costs, and subject to the constraints of I/O bandwidth; and 4) Generalization of algorithm realization and acceleration on computing platforms – The large varieties of machine learning algorithms and structures of extreme-scale computing platforms make the derivation of a generalized algorithm realization and acceleration method very challenging, which, however, is the requirement by domain scientists and interested users. We call the above challenges Smale’s Problems in Machine Learning and Understanding for High-Performance Computing Scientific Discovery. The objective of our three-year research project is to develop a holistic innovation set at structure, assembly, and acceleration layers of machine learning algorithms to address the above challenges in algorithm deployment and execution. Three tasks are particularly performed, including: At the algorithm structure level, we investigate the techniques that can structurally sparsify on the topology of deep networks for computing workload reduction. We also study clustering and pruning techniques that can optimize the workload distributions over the extreme-scale computing platforms; At the algorithm assembly level, we derive a unified learning framework for unsupervised transfer learning and dynamic growing capabilities. Novel training methods are also exploited to enhance the training efficiency of the proposed framework; At the algorithm acceleration level, we will develop a series of techniques that can accelerate the computation of sparse matrix operations, which are one of the core executions in deep learning and optimize memory access of the concerned platforms. Our proposed techniques attack the fundamental problems in machine learning algorithms running on extreme-scale computing platforms by vertically integrating the solutions at three closely entangled layers, paving the long-term scaling path of machine learning applications under DOE context. Three tasks corresponding to the above respective research orientations are performed during the three-year project period with our collaborators at ORNL. The outcome of the proposed project is anticipated to form a holistic solution set of novel algorithms and network topologies, efficient training techniques, and fast acceleration methods to promote the computing scalability of the machine learning applications of particular interest to DOE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

nn-PINNs: Non-Newtonian physics-informed neural networks for complex fluid modeling

Time- and rate-dependent material functions in non-Newtonian fluids in response to different deformation fields pose a challenge in integrating different constitutive models into conventional computational fluid dynamic platforms. Considering their relevance in many industrial and natural settings alike, robust data-driven frameworks that enable accurate modeling of these complex fluids are of great interest. The main goal is to solve the coupled Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) consisting of the constitutive equations that relate the shear stress to the deformation and fully capture the behavior of the fluid under various flow protocols with different boundary conditions. Here, in this work, we present non-Newtonian physics-informed neural networks (nn-PINNs) for solving systems of coupled PDEs adopted for complex fluid flow modeling. The proposed nn-PINN method is employed to solve the constitutive models in conjunction with conservation of mass and momentum by benefiting from Automatic Differentiation (AD) in neural networks, hence avoiding the mesh generation step. nn-PINNs are tested for a number of different complex fluids with different constitutive models and for several flow protocols. These include a range of Generalized Newtonian Fluid (GNF) empirical constitutive models, as well as some phenomenological models with memory effects and thixotropic timescales. nn-PINNs are found to obtain the correct solution of complex fluids in spatiotemporal domains with good accuracy compared to the ground truth solution. We also present applications of nn-PINNs for complex fluid modeling problems with unknown boundary conditions on the surface, and show that our approach can successfully recover the velocity and stress fields across the domain, including the boundaries, given some sparse velocity measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Process Anomaly Detection for Sparsely Labeled Events in Nuclear Power Plants

An essential aspect of online monitoring, subtle anomaly detection increases the detection lead time for equipment failure and enables a nuclear power plant (NPP) to mitigate unexpected partial or full outages, resulting in significant cost saving to the plant. Once an anomaly is detected by plant staff, its cause and severity are investigated. Because the vast majority of anomalies require some level of investigation, including some that require time-consuming examination, before they are passed over to the engineering organization for further analysis, plants are often equipped with tools to assist the staff in performing anomaly detection. Those tools operate as a black box and are often based on statistical methods that establish sensor correlations using preconfigured mathematical models and flag correlation deviations as anomalies. Due to the number of anomalies detected at a given NPP on a daily basis, a significant number of flagged anomalies usually await examination for days or weeks. A primary cause of this backlog is that the methods used by the tools generate many false positives. Though this is usually attributed to oversensitive model settings due to very narrow normal operation bands, it can also be associated with the model development being inadequate for the process being monitored, or with missing model inputs that could have explained misclassified positives. The performance of anomaly detection tools impacts their plant acceptance and utilization, especially when the effort to address false positives generated by the tool depletes the value or cost saved by using that tool. Thus, means to advance anomaly detection performance have been investigated by the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability program. Previous and ongoing efforts have targeted unsupervised machine-learning (ML) methods, which do not require the labeling of any data fed into the ML model. By contrast, in supervised anomaly detection methods, every data point is labeled as either a normal or abnormal process condition, and the model is trained to replicate the classification process. Supervised methods usually outperform unsupervised methods, due to the added value in differentiating normal from anomalous states of the monitored process. An NPP’s corrective action program requires it to track and document, via a dedicated report, the resolution of any issues that occur within the plant. Once created, each report is reviewed by a plant screening committee, and several classifications and decisions are made. Recently, a collaborating NPP developed an artificial intelligence and ML-based classifier to categorize a condition report (CR) into classes that can serve to label the data as normal or anomalous. Applying CRs as labels represents a semi-supervised use case. Semi-supervised ML assumes that labels exist for some data points (i.e., labeled anomalies, in this case) but not for the rest. In this effort, semi-supervised ML methods were used to fuse data from CRs with anomaly detection methods in order to test the hypothesis that partially labeled anomalies would improve the accuracy of the anomaly detection methods. Specifically, two methods were used. The first is the deep Semi-supervised Anomaly Detection (deep SAD) method, which can handle labels ranging from fully unsupervised to fully supervised cases. The second is a newly designed ML method developed specifically for this effort and referred to as the high-order feature (HOF)-based method. To evaluate these two methods in controlled environments, synthetic data generators were developed and used. The first datasets used a spring-mass-damper (SMD) system simulator commonly found in mechanical engineering references. This was used to create two use cases: a one- and a three-mass system. Anomalies were introduced by changing the spring and damper coefficients while the system was actuated by random forces. The second datasets used the commercial Dymola-Modelica software to build a simplified nuclear reactor model. Anomalies were added in the form of corrupted sensor readings and/or control commands. The deep SAD method was tested using the SMD system, while the HOF method was tested using both datasets. Application of the deep SAD semi-supervised ML method demonstrated that labels can generate increased confidence in detecting true anomalies. This helped increase the number of true positives and decrease the number of false negatives—something that would aid in addressing the backlog of possible anomalies. Application of the HOF method demonstrated that labels can aid in down selecting from a candidate set of features to a more optimal subset in order to better differentiate between normal and anomalous conditions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Robust Group Subspace Recovery: A New Approach for Multi-Modality Data Fusion

Robust Subspace Recovery (RoSuRe) algorithm was recently introduced as a principled and numerically efficient algorithm that unfolds underlying Unions of Subspaces (UoS) structure, present in the data. The union of Subspaces (UoS) is capable of identifying more complex trends in data sets than simple linear models. In this work, we build on and extend RoSuRe to prospect the structure of different data modalities individually. We propose a novel multi-modal data fusion approach based on group sparsity which we refer to as Robust Group Subspace Recovery (RoGSuRe). Relying on a bi-sparsity pursuit paradigm and non-smooth optimization techniques, the introduced framework learns a new joint representation of the time series from different data modalities, respecting an underlying UoS model. We subsequently integrate the obtained structures to form a unified subspace structure. The proposed approach exploits the structural dependencies between the different modalities data to cluster the associated target objects. The resulting fusion of the unlabeled sensors’ data from experiments on audio and magnetic data has shown that our method is competitive with other state of the art subspace clustering methods. The resulting UoS structure is employed to classify newly observed data points, highlighting the abstraction capacity of the proposed method.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Identifying Differential Equations in Fourier Domain (FourierIdent)

We investigate identifying differential equations in the frequency domain. Fourier analysis is an important tool in theoretical analysis and numerical solvers of differential equations, yet there is limited work in exploring this connection in the identification of differential equations. This paper aims to identify the underlying differential equation in the frequency domain, from a given single realization of the differential equation perturbed by noise. Such setting imposes difficulties which are different from other identification methods where computation is carried out in the physical domain. We propose several ways to mitigate the challenges arising from noise in data and large differences in the magnitudes of frequency responses. The main takeaways are that identifying differential equations solely in the frequency domain is challenging, the method we propose is based on a form of domain partitions in the frequency domain, and this method shows benefits for complex data even with high level of noise. We introduce a Fourier feature denoising, and define the meaningful data region and the core regions of features to reduce the effect of noise in the frequency domain and to enhance the accuracy in coefficient identification. The proposed method is tested on various differential equations with linear, nonlinear, and high-order derivative feature terms, and shows advantages on complex data with many frequency modes, even under high level of noise.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nuclear Data – Benchmarking 19 F(α,n) Yield Data for Nuclear Safeguards

Fluorine compounds of U and Pu are ubiquitous in the nuclear fuel cycle, so F(α,n) neutrons are an important signature and quantitative source term that needs to be understood for physics-based interpretation of nondestructive assay measurements. Historically there have been large differences in the basic nuclear data for this reaction reported by various groups. UF 6 is the most prominent material in the nuclear fuel cycle, with the potential for short-term production into weaponizable form. Verification of bulk quantities, natural feed, depleted tails, and especially low enriched product in cylinders is particularly important. The principal physical measurement is neutron counting. For enriched material, the 19 F(α,n) reaction, driven by 234U, is the dominant source of neutrons. Basic nuclear data, cross sections, needed to calculate the yield, as well as information on the source spectrum for sensitivity studies are sparse and highly discrepant. This limits defensible physics-based performance evaluations. The same applies to holdup and criticality studies in which hydrated uranyl fluoride is the material of interest which accumulates in enrichment facilities. In the future we anticipate that the physics community will have made improved accelerator-based measurements and undertaken a more thorough evaluation and adjustment of all relevant available data. But in the short term, this does not help the safeguards community face the pressing real-world nondestructive assay requirements. To address this need, we have performed quality neutron measurements on UF6 materials using well-known material and high-capability neutron counters. A robust determination of the n/s/g of 234 U in UF 6 was generated along with a scientifically defensible uncertainty analysis. The weighted average value of the neutron yield is 509 n/s/g 234 U with a random uncertainty of approximately 1%. Dominant sources of systematic uncertainty are in the efficiency determination where we incur approximately 1.1% relative standard deviation associated with the 252 Cf reference source and about 0.9% uncertainty coming from the uncertainty in the F(α,n) spectrum. The stated uncertainties are an order of magnitude better than current data based on accelerator data reported in the literature. Aside from being of immediate and direct use by the safeguards community, this result will serve as an enduring integral benchmark for subsequent data evaluations that will need to match it in order to be credible. In addition to yield normalization, safeguards users of F(α,n) data also need guidance of the neutron emission spectrum. We have generated a neutron emission using a modified version of the well-known SOURCES 4C code, updated with new alpha stopping power coefficients, and a blended microscopic cross section data set. The yield and spectra are available in a form that MCNP users can readily use.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Out With the Old: Empirical Trends in U.S. Land‐Based Wind Turbine Decommissioning and Repowering

A growing number of wind turbines (WTs) across the globe are now reaching or exceeding their expected service lifetime; WT decommissioning is on the rise. Accordingly, questions pertaining to WT end-of-life have risen in importance in policy and practice. Yet, research on the various factors relating to WT decommissioning is relatively sparse. Moreover, the key assumptions underpinning that prior research (e.g., the lifespan of WTs, characteristics of WTs being decommissioned, and whether the site is repowered with new WTs) have never been empirically tested across a large set of decommissioned WTs. Leveraging a uniquely comprehensive and spatially explicit dataset of decommissioned WTs in the United States, this research analyzes spatial, technological, and temporal trends in WT decommissioning and develops a novel predictive model for WT decommissioning. Our analysis pinpoints more than 12,400 WTs that have been fully decommissioned in the United States., the majority of which have been relatively old (> 30 years) and small (< 200 kW). While a WT's age alone is a good predictor of the likelihood of decommissioning, other factors such as the size of the WT and recent performance are also important and significant predictors. Most sites where decommissioning has occurred have seen subsequent repowering, with repowered plants featuring substantially fewer WTs (−86 on average) and higher rated plant capacity (+62 MW on average). Many existing WTs in the U.S. are approaching the end of their expected life with roughly 7500 being 20 or more years old. Findings can help policymakers and stakeholders begin preparing for this potential wave of future decommissioning and repowering.

Decommissioning / End-of-life↗