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At least 253 records · Page 14

Model Choice Metrics to Optimize Profile-QSAR Performance

Predicting molecular activity against protein targets is difficult because of the paucity of experimental data. Approaches like multitask modeling and collaborative filtering seek to improve model accuracy by leveraging results from multiple targets, but are limited because different compounds are measured with different assays, leading to sparse data matrices. Profile-QSAR (pQSAR) 2.0 addresses this problem by fitting a series of partial least squares models for each target, using as features the predictions from single-task models on the remaining targets. Here, this method has been shown to produce better results than single task and multitask models. However, the factors determining the success of pQSAR 2.0 have as yet not been characterized. In this paper we examine the experimental conditions that lead to better pQSAR models. We limit the amount of data available to the method by retraining with decreasing amounts of data and explore the model’s ability to generalize to compounds that have never been assayed. Finally, we look at the properties of training data needed to demonstrate pQSAR improvement.

Biological and medical sciences, Computer science↗

Stacked reverberation mapping of high-redshift quasars in DESI. I. Feasibility analysis

The broad-line region of quasars has long been probed by reverberation mapping techniques that measure time lags between continuum and broad emission-line variations. Stacked reverberation mapping has been proposed as a less observationally expensive alternative to traditional methods. This ensemble approach also reduces biases from small-number statistics. The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is conducting the most extensive spectroscopic survey of quasars to date. We create mock light curves emulating expected DESI quasar observations at redshifts $1.48\lt z\lt 5.2$ and luminosities $44.68 \le \log \lambda L_{1350 \mathring{\rm A}{}} / \mathrm{erg\, s^{-1}} \le 45.99$ to test stacked reverberation mapping feasibility using sparse spectroscopic data paired with well-sampled photometric data. The pipeline, using the lag estimation code JAVELIN (Just Another Vehicle for Estimating Lags In Nuclei), successfully recovers the simulated C IV lags within 1σ of the true values using spectroscopic light curves composed of only a few spectral epochs (2–10) with irregular cadences. We investigate how observational factors, including C IV flux error magnitude, number of stacked quasars, and spectral epoch count, affect performance. This work motivates a pathway for future stacked reverberation mapping projects with large-scale spectroscopic surveys of quasars having $\ge 2$ spectroscopic observations. Our results suggest an economical alternative for constraining and extending the radius–luminosity relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. Subsequently, this relation can be employed more reliably in single-epoch black hole mass measurements and quasar cosmology in these distant regimes.

quasars: general, quasars: supermassive black hole↗

Randomized Algorithms for Symmetric Nonnegative Matrix Factorization

Symmetric Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (SymNMF) is a technique in data analysis and machine learning that approximates a matrix with a product of a nonnegative, low-rank matrix and it transpose. To design faster and more scalable algorithms for SymNMF we develop two randomized algorithms for its computation. The first method uses randomized matrix sketching to compute an initial low-rank approximation to the input matrix and proceeds to uses this as a low-rank input to rapidly compute a SymNMF. The second methods uses randomized leverage score sampling to approximately solve constrained least squares problems. Many successful methods for SymNMF rely on (approximately) solving sequences of constrained least squares problems. Here, we prove theoretically that leverage score sampling can approximately solve constrained least squares problems to e-accuracy. Finally we demonstrate both methods work in practice by applying them to graph clustering tasks on large real world data sets. These experiments show that our methods approximately maintain solution quality and achieve significant speed ups for both large dense and large sparse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Concepts for NASA longitudinal health studies

Clinical data collected from a 15-year study of the homogenous group of pre-Shuttle astronauts have revealed no significant long-term effects from spaceflight. The current hypothesis suggests that repeated exposures to the space environment in the Shuttle era will similarly have no long-term health effects. However, a much more heterogenous group of astronauts and non-astronaut scientists will fly in Shuttle, and data on this group's adaptation to the space environment and readaptation to earth are currently sparse. In addition, very little information is available concerning the short- and long-term medical consequences of long duration exposure to space and subsequent readaptation to the earth environment. In this paper, retrospective clinical information on astronauts is reviewed and concepts for conducting epidemiological studies examining long-term health effects of spaceflight on humans, including associated occupational risks factors, are presented.

Nicogossian, A. E.↗

A Chess-Like Game for Teaching Engineering Students to Solve Large System of Simultaneous Linear Equations

Solving large (and sparse) system of simultaneous linear equations has been (and continues to be) a major challenging problem for many real-world engineering/science applications [1-2]. For many practical/large-scale problems, the sparse, Symmetrical and Positive Definite (SPD) system of linear equations can be conveniently represented in matrix notation as [A] {x} = {b} , where the square coefficient matrix [A] and the Right-Hand-Side (RHS) vector {b} are known. The unknown solution vector {x} can be efficiently solved by the following step-by-step procedures [1-2]: Reordering phase, Matrix Factorization phase, Forward solution phase, and Backward solution phase. In this research work, a Game-Based Learning (GBL) approach has been developed to help engineering students to understand crucial details about matrix reordering and factorization phases. A "chess-like" game has been developed and can be played by either a single player, or two players. Through this "chess-like" open-ended game, the players/learners will not only understand the key concepts involved in reordering algorithms (based on existing algorithms), but also have the opportunities to "discover new algorithms" which are better than existing algorithms. Implementing the proposed "chess-like" game for matrix reordering and factorization phases can be enhanced by FLASH [3] computer environments, where computer simulation with animated human voice, sound effects, visual/graphical/colorful displays of matrix tables, score (or monetary) awards for the best game players, etc. can all be exploited. Preliminary demonstrations of the developed GBL approach can be viewed by anyone who has access to the internet web-site [4]!

Nguyen, Duc T.↗

Magnetic moment and lifetime measurements of Coulomb-excited states in Cd 106

The Cd isotopes are well studied, but experimental data for the rare isotopes are sparse. At energies above the Coulomb barrier, higher states become accessible. Remeasure and supplement existing lifetimes and magnetic moments of low-lying states in 106 Cd. Methods: In an inverse kinematics reaction, a 106 Cd beam impinging on a 12 C target was used to Coulomb excite the projectiles. The high recoil velocities provide a unique opportunity to measure g factors with the transient-field technique and to determine lifetimes from lineshapes by using the Doppler-shift-attenuation method. Large-scale shell-model calculations were carried out for 106 Cd. As a result, the g factors of the 2 + 1 and 4 + 1 states in 106 Cd were measured to be g(2 + 1 ) = +0.398(22) and g(4 + 1 ) = +0.23(5). A lineshape analysis yielded lifetimes in disagreement with published values. The new results are τ( 106 Cd; 2 + 1 ) = 7.0(3) ps and τ( 106 Cd; 4 + 1 ) = 2.5(2) ps. The mean life τ( 106 Cd; 2 + 2 ) = 0.28(2) ps was determined from the fully-Doppler-shifted γ line. Mean lives of τ( 106 Cd; 4 + 3 ) = 1.1(1) ps and τ( 106 Cd; 3 – 1 ) = 0.16(1) ps were determined for the first time. In conclusion, the newly measured g(4 + 1 ) of 106 Cd is found to be only 59% of the g(2 + 1 ). This difference cannot be explained by either shell-model or collective-model calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Comparison of Land Skin Temperature from a Land Model, Remote Sensing, and In-situ Measurement

Land skin temperature (Ts) is an important parameter in the energy exchange between the land surface and atmosphere. Here hourly Ts from the Community Land Model Version 4.0, MODIS satellite observations, and in-situ observations in 2003 were compared. Compared with the in-situ observations over four semi-arid stations, both MODIS and modeled Ts show negative biases, but MODIS shows an overall better performance. Global distribution of differences between MODIS and modeled Ts shows diurnal, seasonal, and spatial variations. Over sparsely vegetated areas, the model Ts is generally lower than the MODIS observed Ts during the daytime, while the situation is opposite at nighttime. The revision of roughness length for heat and the constraint of minimum friction velocity from Zeng et al. [2012] bring the modeled Ts closer to MODIS during the day, and have little effect on Ts at night. Five factors contributing to the Ts differences between the model and MODIS are identified, including the difficulty in properly accounting for cloud cover information at the appropriate temporal and spatial resolutions, and uncertainties in surface energy balance computation, atmospheric forcing data, surface emissivity, and MODIS Ts data. These findings have implications for the cross-evaluation of modeled and remotely sensed Ts, as well as the data assimilation of Ts observations into Earth system models.

Modeling↗

BiGlobal Secondary Instabilities of Roughness-Induced Transient Growth

Roughness-induced transient disturbances distort laminar boundary layers and can lead to premature transition if the roughness is of sufficient height and shape. If transition does occur, it does so through a high-frequency "secondary" instability of the roughness wake. A BiGlobal secondaryinstability code has been developed to solve the stability problem downstream of roughness. The code implements multiple solvers for incompressible/compressible, inviscid/viscous, and temporal/spatial stability. High-order finite differences, sparse matrix linear algebra, LU decomposition, and Arnoldi iterations are used to solve the resulting generalized eigenvalue problem. The code has been used to evaluate the stability properties of experimental roughness-induced transient growth on a flat-plate at low-speed and a slightly blunted cone at M∞= 6. The resulting mode shapes, growth rates, and spatial N-factors show excellent agreement with experimental data. The viscous mode shapes show the best agreement with the experimental disturbance profiles. Yet, execution time can be reduced by an order-of-magnitude by using the inviscid solvers with only modest differences in growth rates.

BiGlobal↗

The three-dimensional structure of the infrared cirrus

This project was carried out over a period of four years, beginning 6/15/89 and continuing through 9/15/93. Intermediate results have been reported as poster papers at several meetings of the American Astronomical Society. A brief summary was presented in April 1993 at a symposium on the infrared cirrus. The final results were published in late 1993. The measurements have been deposited in NASA's Astronomical Data Center. Briefly, the results are as follows: Using the IRAS data base, we surveyed the 1808 06-B9.5 stars in the Bright Star Catalog for extended excess emission at 60 micrometers, indicating the presence of heated dust (cirrus hotspots) at the location of the star. Measurements of the angular size and infrared flux at 12, 25, 60 and 100 micrometers were obtained for 302 objects. From these basic data we calculated the radius, absorption, optical depth, color temperature, and dust density for each object. Arguing that the stars are randomly distributed point probes of the ISM, we showed that the filling factor of the dust-bearing component of the ISM is 14.6 + 2.4 percent within 400 pc of the sun for clouds with an equivalent hydrogen density greater than 0.5 cm(exp -3). Above a density of 1.0 cm(exp -3) the density distribution function appears to follow a power law of index -1.25. Further, we showed that the dust is distributed more sparsely in a region near the sun about 60 pc wide and extending several hundred parsecs in the direction of longitudes 80-260 deg. The distances to the dust clouds were determined from the spectroscopic parallaxes of the embedded stars; when the HIPPARCOS parallaxes become available, we will be able to produce a more accurate three-dimensional view of the local ISM.

Gaustad, John E.↗

Trends in Europe Storm Surge Extremes Match the Rate of Sea-level Rise

Coastal communities across the world are already feeling the disastrous impacts of climate change through variations in extreme sea levels1. These variations reflect the combined effect of sea-level rise and changes in storm surge activity. Understanding the relative importance of these two factors in altering the likelihood of extreme events is crucial to the success of coastal adaptation measures. Existing analyses of tide gauge records agree that sea-level rise has been a considerable driver of trends in sea-level extremes since at least 1960. However, the contribution from changes in storminess remains unclear, owing to the difficulty of inferring this contribution from sparse data and the consequent inconclusive results that have accumulated in the literature. Here we analyse tide gauge observations using spatial Bayesian methods to show that, contrary to current thought, trends in surge extremes and sea-level rise both made comparable contributions to the overall change in extreme sea levels in Europe since 1960 . We determine that the trend pattern of surge extremes reflects the contributions from a dominant north–south dipole associated with internal climate variability and a single-sign positive pattern related to anthropogenic forcing. Our results demonstrate that both external and internal influences can considerably affect the likelihood of surge extremes over periods as long as 60 years, suggesting that the current coastal planning practice of assuming stationary surge extremes might be inadequate.

Francisco M Calafat↗

MPI-FAUN: An MPI-Based Framework for Alternating-Updating Nonnegative Matrix Factorization

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is the problem of determining two non-negative low rank factors W and H, for the given input matrix A, such that A≈WH. NMF is a useful tool for many applications in different domains such as topic modeling in text mining, background separation in video analysis, and community detection in social networks. Despite its popularity in the data mining community, there is a lack of efficient parallel algorithms to solve the problem for big data sets. The main contribution of this work is a new, high-performance parallel computational framework for a broad class of NMF algorithms that iteratively solves alternating non-negative least squares (NLS) subproblems for W and H. It maintains the data and factor matrices in memory (distributed across processors), uses MPI for interprocessor communication, and, in the dense case, provably minimizes communication costs (under mild assumptions). The framework is flexible and able to leverage a variety of NMF and NLS algorithms, including Multiplicative Update, Hierarchical Alternating Least Squares, and Block Principal Pivoting. Our implementation allows us to benchmark and compare different algorithms on massive dense and sparse data matrices of size that spans from few hundreds of millions to billions. We demonstrate the scalability of our algorithm and compare it with baseline implementations, showing significant performance improvements. The code and the datasets used for conducting the experiments are available online.

2D↗

Sedimentary Parameters Controlling Occurrence and Preservation of Microbial Mats in Siliciclastic Depositional Systems

Shallow-marine, siliciclastic depositional systems are governed by physical sedimentary processes. Mineral precipitation or penecontemporaneous cementation play minor roles. Today, coastal siliciclastic environments may be colonized by a variety of epibenthic, mat-forming cyanobacteria. Studies on microbial mats showed that they are not randomly distributed in modern tidal environments. Distribution and abundancy is mainly function of a particular sedimentary facies. Fine-grained sands composed of "clear" (translucent) quartz particles constitute preferred substrates for cyanobacteria. Mat-builders also favor sites characterized by moderate hydrodynamic flow regimes, which permit biomass enrichment and construction of mat fabrics without lethal burial of mat populations by fine sediments. A comparable facies relationship can be observed in ancient siliciclastic shelf successions from the terminal Neoproterozoic Nama Group, Namibia. Wrinkle structures that record microbial mats are present but sparsely distributed in mid- to inner shelf sandstones of the Nudaus Formation. The sporadic distribution of these structures reflects both the narrow ecological window that governs mat development and the distinctive taphonomic conditions needed to preserve the structures. These observations caution that statements about changing mat abundance across the Proterozoic-Cambrian boundary must be firmly rooted in paleoenvironmental and taphonomic analysis. Understanding the factors that influence the formation and preservation of microbial structures in siliciclastic regimes can facilitate exploration for biological signatures in Earth's oldest rocks. Moreover, insofar as these structures can be preserved on bedding surfaces and are not easily mimicked by physical processes, they constitute a set of biological markers that can be searched for on Mars by remotely controlled rovers.

Noffke, Nora↗

Coherence Analysis of the Space Launch System using Unsteady Pressure Sensitive Paint

Transonic buffet during atmospheric ascent is a major source of unsteady loading on launch vehicles that, in the past, has led to structural failures. Thus, determining accurate buffet forcing functions (BFFs) to properly predict the vehicle response to buffet is of vital importance in launch vehicle design. The state of the art for obtaining the BFFs relies on wind-tunnel tests where the fluctuating pressures are measured by pressure transducers (PTs) at sparse locations on a rigid, geometrically-scaled buffet model. To compute the BFFs, the outer mold line (OML) of the vehicle is mapped onto contiguous panels centered at the location of the PTs and the measured fluctuating pressures are integrated over the panels’ areas. To mitigate conservatism due to the assumption that the measured buffet pressures act in phase across each panel, coherence factors are applied, effectively reducing the integration areas and, therefore, the buffet forces. For coherence factors to provide the proper level of BFF attenuation, accurate knowledge of the spatial and temporal correlation of the buffet pressures is paramount. Unfortunately, even with hundreds of unsteady pressure transducers instrumenting the models, compromises must be made on the spatial resolution of the PTs. Typically, the PT layout aims at resolving the pressure correlation along the longitudinal axis of the vehicle, assuming that coherent structures propagate mostly in the longitudinal direction. As a result, the distribution of azimuthal/cross-stream correlation is not well known and its impact on the estimated BFFs is often neglected. To fill this and other knowledge gaps, extremely high spatial-resolution uPSP data were collected for three different production-design configurations of the Space Launch System in the NASA Ames Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel. Specifically, two cargo configurations, the Block 1 and Block 1B, and one crew configuration, the Block 1B crew, were surveyed at resolutions ranging from 600,000 to over 1 million uPSP measurement locations. To shed light on the temporal and spectral behavior of are presented. Several OML regions and flow features of interest are investigated, from theexpansion/shock on the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, to the terminal shock environment on the core stage, and the Strouhal shedding behind the boosters forward attach. The sensitivity of these environments to the vehicle attitude is examined. Furthermore, for selected panels,coherence factors that accurately capture the azimuthal coherence distribution of the buffetpressures are derived and their impact on the estimated BFFs is discussed. Finally, distributions of the local convection velocity and cross spectrum phase are presented.

buffet↗

Three-dimensional fracture continuum characterization aided by surface time-domain electromagnetics and hydrogeophysical joint inversion—proof-of-concept

Efficient and safe production of hydraulically fractured reservoirs benefits from the prediction of their geometrical attributes. Geophysical methods have the potential to provide data that are sensitive to fracture geometries, alleviating the typically sparse nature of in situ reservoir observations. Moreover, surface-based methods can be logistically and economically attractive since they avoid operational interference with the injection well infrastructure. Here, we investigate the potential of the surface-based time-domain electromagnetic (EM) method. EM methods can play an important role owing to their sensitivity to injection-induced fluid property changes. Two other advantageous factors are the EM signal-enhancing effect of vertical steel-cased wells and the fact that injected proppants can be enhanced to produce a stronger electrical conductivity contrast with the reservoir’s connate fluid. Nevertheless, an optimal fracture characterization will no doubt require the integration of EM and reservoir injection and production data. We hence carry out our investigations within a hydrogeophysical parameter estimation framework where EM data and injection flow rates are combined in a fully coupled way. Given the interdisciplinary nature of coupled hydrogeophysical inverse modeling, we dedicate one section to laying out key aspects in a didactic manner.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Structural and Stratigraphic Controls on Methane Hydrate occurrence and distribution: Gulf of Mexico, Walker Ridge 313 and Green Canyon 955: Final Report

The goal of this project was to determine structural and stratigraphic controls on hydrate occurrence and distribution in Green Canyon (GC) 955 and Walker Ridge (WR) 313 blocks using seismic and well data. Gas hydrate was discovered in these blocks in coarse- and fine-grained sediments during the 2009 Joint Industrial project (JIP) Leg 11 drilling expedition. Although the immediate interest of the exploration community is exclusively hydrate which is present in coarse–grained sediments, factors that control hydrate and free gas distribution in the two blocks and whether coarse and fine-grained hydrate-bearing units are related in any manner, formed the core of this research. The project spanned from 10/01/2012 to 07/31/2016. In the project, in both the leased blocks, the interval spanning the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) was characterized using a joint analysis of sparse Ocean Bottom Seismic (OBS) and dense, surface–towed multichannel seismic (MCS) data. The project team had the luxury of calibrating their results with two well logs. Advance processing methods such as depth migration and full-waveform inversion (FWI) were used for seismic data analysis. Hydrate quantification was achieved through interpretation of the FWI velocity field using appropriate rock physics models at both blocks. The seismic modeling/inversion methodology (common to both GC955 and WR313 blocks) was as follows. First, the MCS data were depth migrated using a P-wave velocity (VP) model constructed using inversion of reflection arrival times of a few (four in both cases) key horizons carefully picked in the OBS data to farthest possible offsets. Then, the resolution of the traveltime VP model was improved to wavelength scale by inverting OBS gathers up to the highest frequency possible (21.75 Hz for GC955 and 17.5 for WR313) using FWI. Finally, the hydrate saturation (or the volume fraction) was estimated at the well location assuming one of the other hydrate morphology (filling the primary or the secondary porosity) was extrapolated out from the wells using the FWI VP as a guide. General outcomes were as follows. First and foremost, an imaging methodology using sparse seismic data, which is easily replicable at other sites with similar datasets, has been demonstrated. The end product of this methodology at both the leased blocks is quantitative estimates of hydrate distribution. Second, at both locations there is strong evidence that the base of the GHSZ, which does not appear as a clear Bottom Simulating Reflection (BSR), manifests in the VP perturbations created by FWI, suggesting that FWI is sensitive to subtle compositional changes in shallow sediments and establishes it as a valuable tool for investigations of hydrate-bearing basins. Third, through joint interpretation of the depth migrated image and the FWI VP model, how structure and stratigraphy jointly determine hydrate and free gas distribution in both blocks could be clearly visualized. The joint interpretation also suggests that the coarse and fine grained hydrate-bearing sediments at both leased are connected. Site specific results, in addition to general results, are as follows. At GC955 the overlying fine-grained hydrate-bearing unit could have been sourced from the underlying hydrate coarse-grained channel-levee complex through a chimney feature. The channel-levee system at GC955 is compartmentalized by faults, of which only a few may be impermeable. Although compartmentalized, the channel-levee system in the GC955 as a whole might be in communication except selected zones. At WR313 the overlying fine-grained fracture-filled hydrate unit appears to be sourced from below the GHSZ. The reason that only a particular fine-grained unit has hydrate, despite having lower porosity that the bounding units, could be the presence of secondary porosity (such as those formed from clay dewatering under compaction). In conclusion, the project was a pioneering effort in in joint analysis of OBS and MCS datasets for advancing the knowledge about a hydrate and free–gas system dynamics using advanced processing methods such as FWI and depth migration. Results obtained in this project can greatly advance the tools and techniques used for delineating specific hydrate prospects. Results obtained in this project can also be seamlessly incorporated into other DOE funded project on modeling the potential productivity and commercial viability of hydrate from sand-dominated reservoirs. The OBS and MCS data in this project were acquired in 2012 (after the JIP II drilling) by the USGS and therefore the results are a posteriori. Nonetheless, the seismic inversion workflow established through this project can be used to generate various what-if quantification scenarios even in absence of logs and serve as a valuable tool for guiding drilling operations. Results from this project can augment other DOE sponsored projects on determining the commercial viability of methane production from the Gulf of Mexico.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Weak-form inference for hybrid dynamical systems in ecology

Species subject to predation and environmental threats commonly exhibit variable periods of population boom and bust over long timescales. Understanding and predicting such behaviour, especially given the inherent heterogeneity and stochasticity of exogenous driving factors over short timescales, is an ongoing challenge. A modelling paradigm gaining popularity in the ecological sciences for such multi-scale effects is to couple short-term continuous dynamics to long-term discrete updates. We develop a data-driven method utilizing weak-form equation learning to extract such hybrid governing equations for population dynamics and to estimate the requisite parameters using sparse intermittent measurements of the discrete and continuous variables. The method produces a set of short-term continuous dynamical system equations parametrized by long-term variables, and long-term discrete equations parametrized by short-term variables, allowing direct assessment of interdependencies between the two timescales. We demonstrate the utility of the method on a variety of ecological scenarios and provide extensive tests using models previously derived for epizootics experienced by the North American spongy moth ( Lymantria dispar dispar ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bit-GraphBLAS: Bit-Level Optimizations of Matrix-Centric Graph Processing on GPU

In the graph data structure like adjacency matrix, the connectivity of two nodes can be sufficiently represented using only 1 bit, but they are generally treated as 32-bit full-precision in state-of-the-art graph frameworks to adopt common sparse format such as CSR. Meanwhile, bit-level parallelism has recently be explored to have high-performance potential and low storage requirement on GPUs with dense bit-tiles. To fill the gap, our solution is a hierarchical storage format that contains the bit-indexing base and dense bit-tile units. Inherently, the granularity of the bit-tile is an essential factor in achieving both storage compression and GPU parallelism. How to find a sweet spot that trades off between avoiding sparsity and exploiting is comprehensively researched in this work. In the experiment, we evaluate the proposed storage format and algorithms on modern generation GPUs, including Pascal and Volta, to figure out critical software co-designs in conjunction with existing hardware-specific optimization.

Chen, Jou-An↗

Adaptive Sparse-Grid Stochastic Collocation Uncertainty Quantification Convergence for Multigroup Diffusion

Advanced methods in uncertainty quantification for numerical models in computational physics continue to gain acceptance in nuclear modeling. Previously, the efficiency of sparse-grid stochastic collocation in comparison with Monte Carlo for uncertainty quantification through convergence studies was demonstrated. An adaptive method for anisotropic sparse grid collocation and its convergence compared to previous efforts is considered. The physical system in consideration is a two-dimensional quarter-core reactor, consisting of 5 materials distributed in 121 regions. The two-group neutron diffusion criticality approximation is solved. Vacuum boundaries are applied on the top and right, and reflecting boundaries on the bottom and left. The material cross sections, neutron multiplication factors, and diffusion coefficients are potential sources of uncertainty. Uniformly-distributed uncertainty within 5% of the reference values is introduced for material properties. The distribution of the uncertain parameters make up the uncertainty space Γ included in R{sup N}, where N is the number of uncertain parameters. The input parameter uncertainties are independently distributed. As expected, the convergence of Monte Carlo on the benchmark as a function of computational solves is nearly linear and lethargic compared to the other methods. The static isotropic index set, in which each input dimension is treated with equal importance, converges much more efficiently than Monte Carlo, but lacks the benefit of emphasizing some dimensions over others. The anisotropic case is most efficient, where first-order sensitivity information was used to determine anisotropic weights for polynomials to use in the polynomial chaos expansion. Interestingly, the adaptive algorithm converges slightly less efficiently than the anisotropic case, while still performing better than the isotropic case. Because the adaptive case has to determine the importance of each input dimension, it occasionally predicts inaccurately and wastes computation solves compared to the more ideal anisotropic case. However, in circumstances when an ideal anisotropy is not understood a priori, the adaptive algorithm may be optimally efficient in representing the original model. Given the potential loss of efficiency when using a poorly-chosen anisotropic weighting, the adaptive algorithm may be an effective choice for initial uncertainty quantification in problems with a low-dimensionality input space. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗