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NASA NTRS2011

NASA Tech Briefs, July 2011

Topics covered include: 1) Collaborative Clustering for Sensor Networks; 2) Teleoperated Marsupial Mobile Sensor Platform Pair for Telepresence Insertion Into Challenging Structures; 3) Automated Verification of Spatial Resolution in Remotely Sensed Imagery; 4) Electrical Connector Mechanical Seating Sensor; 5) In Situ Aerosol Detector; 6) Multi-Parameter Aerosol Scattering Sensor; 7) MOSFET Switching Circuit Protects Shape Memory Alloy Actuators; 8) Optimized FPGA Implementation of Multi-Rate FIR Filters Through Thread Decomposition; 9) Circuit for Communication Over Power Lines; 10) High-Efficiency Ka-Band Waveguide Two-Way Asymmetric Power Combiner; 11) 10-100 Gbps Offload NIC for WAN, NLR, and Grid Computing; 12) Pulsed Laser System to Simulate Effects of Cosmic Rays in Semiconductor Devices; 13) Flight Planning in the Cloud; 14) MPS Editor; 15) Object-Oriented Multi Disciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool; 16) Cryogenic-Compatible Winchester Connector Mount and Retaining System for Composite Tubes; 17) Development of Position-Sensitive Magnetic Calorimeters for X-Ray Astronomy; 18) Planar Rotary Piezoelectric Motor Using Ultrasonic Horns; 19) Self-Rupturing Hermetic Valve; 20) Explosive Bolt Dual-Initiated from One Side; 21) Dampers for Stationary Labyrinth Seals; 22) Two-Arm Flexible Thermal Strap; 23) Carbon Dioxide Removal via Passive Thermal Approaches; 24) Polymer Electrolyte-Based Ambient Temperature Oxygen Microsensors for Environmental Monitoring; 25) Pressure Shell Approach to Integrated Environmental Protection; 26) Image Quality Indicator for Infrared Inspections; 27) Micro-Slit Collimators for X-Ray/Gamma-Ray Imaging; 28) Scatterometer-Calibrated Stability Verification Method; 29) Test Port for Fiber-Optic-Coupled Laser Altimeter; 30) Phase Retrieval System for Assessing Diamond Turning and Optical Surface Defects; 31) Laser Oscillator Incorporating a Wedged Polarization Rotator and a Porro Prism as Cavity Mirror; 32) Generic, Extensible, Configurable Push-Pull Framework for Large-Scale Science Missions; 33) Dynamic Loads Generation for Multi-Point Vibration Excitation Problems; 34) Optimal Control via Self-Generated Stochasticity; 35) Space-Time Localization of Plasma Turbulence Using Multiple Spacecraft Radio Links; 36) Surface Contact Model for Comets and Asteroids; 37) Dust Mitigation Vehicle; 38) Optical Coating Performance for Heat Reflectors of the JWST-ISIM Electronic Component; 39) SpaceCube Demonstration Platform; 40) Aperture Mask for Unambiguous Parity Determination in Long Wavelength Imagers; 41) Spaceflight Ka-Band High-Rate Radiation-Hard Modulator; 42) Enabling Disabled Persons to Gain Access to Digital Media; 43) Cytometer on a Chip; 44) Principles, Techniques, and Applications of Tissue Microfluidics; and 45) Two-Stage Winch for Kites and Tethered Balloons or Blimps.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Integrated Medical Model - Optimizing In-flight Space Medical Systems to Reduce Crew Health Risk and Mission Impacts

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool used by medical system planners and designers as they prepare for exploration planning activities of the Constellation program (CxP). IMM provides an evidence-based approach to help optimize the allocation of in-flight medical resources for a specified level of risk within spacecraft operational constraints. Eighty medical conditions and associated resources are represented in IMM. Nine conditions are due to Space Adaptation Syndrome. The IMM helps answer fundamental medical mission planning questions such as What medical conditions can be expected? What type and quantity of medical resources are most likely to be used?", and "What is the probability of crew death or evacuation due to medical events?" For a specified mission and crew profile, the IMM effectively characterizes the sequence of events that could potentially occur should a medical condition happen. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew attributes, medical conditions and incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential clinical and crew health end states are established to generate end state probabilities. A Monte Carlo computational method is used to determine the probable outcomes and requires up to 25,000 mission trials to reach convergence. For each mission trial, the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat prevalent medical conditions are tracked and decremented. The uncertainty of patient response to treatment is bounded via a best-case, worst-case, untreated case algorithm. A Crew Health Index (CHI) metric, developed to account for functional impairment due to a medical condition, provides a quantified measure of risk and enables risk comparisons across mission scenarios. The use of historical in-flight medical data, terrestrial surrogate data as appropriate, and space medicine subject matter expertise has enabled the development of a probabilistic, stochastic decision support tool capable of optimizing in-flight medical systems based on crew and mission parameters. This presentation will illustrate how to apply quantitative risk assessment methods to optimize the mass and volume of space-based medical systems for a space flight mission given the level of crew health and mission risk.

Kerstman, Eric↗

DOE OSTI2023

Beyond Expected Values Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Utah FORGE: Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) Data

The FORGE team is making these fracture models available to researchers wanting a set of natural fractures in the FORGE reservoir for use in their own modeling work. They have been used to predict stimulation distances during hydraulic stimulation at the open toe section of well 16A(78)-32. These fracture sets are fully stochastic and do not contain the deterministic set that matches the pilot well 58-32 FMI data. Well 58-32 has been completed and 16A(78)-32 is to be drilled as part of Phase 3. The original .fab files are not included due to redundancy. The *.fabgz data for the 800m and 1200m depth areas are in the native FracMan format and have been compressed using Gzip. Filtered data for the 800m depth area includes .csv spreadsheets, native FracMan (.fab), and GOCAD (.ts) files that are in a compressed zip format. The file titled "SGW 2020 Finnila and Podgorney DFN fracture files on GDR.pdf" is a description of the data and should be reviewed prior to data use.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines

Producing and distributing COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic is a major logistical challenge requiring careful planning and efficient execution. This report presents information on logistical, policy and technical issues relevant to rapidly fielding a COVID-19 vaccination program. For this study we (a) conducted literature review and subject matter expert elicitation to understand current vaccine manufacturing and distribution capabilities and vaccine allocation strategies, (b) designed a baseline vaccine distribution strategy and modeling strategy to provide insight into the potential for targeted distribution of limited initial vaccine supplies, and (c) developed parametric interfaces to enable vaccine distribution scenarios to be analyzed in depth with Sandias Adaptive Recovery Model that will allow us evaluate the additional sub- populations and alternative distribution scenarios from a public health benefit and associated economic disruption Principal issues, challenges, and complexities that complicate COVID-19 vaccine delivery identified in our literature and subject matter expert investigation include these items: The United States has not mounted an urgent nationwide vaccination campaign in recent history. The existing global manufacturing and distribution infrastructure are not able to produce enough vaccine for the population immediately. Vaccines, once available will be scarce resources. Prioritization for vaccine allocation will be built on existing distribution networks. Vaccine distribution may not have a universal impact on disease transmission and morbidity because of scarcity, priority population demographics, and underlying disease transmission rates. Considerations for designing a vaccine distribution strategy are discussed. A baseline distribution strategy is designed and tested using the Adaptive Recovery Model, which couples a deterministic compartmental epidemiological model and a stochastic network model. We show the impact of this vaccine distribution strategy on hospitalizations, mortality, and contact tracing requirements. This model can be used to quantitatively evaluate alternative distribution scenarios, guiding policy decisions as vaccine candidates are narrowed down.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust Scheduling of Networked Microgrids for Economics and Resilience Improvement

The benefits of networked microgrids in terms of economics and resilience are investigated and validated in this work. Considering the stochastic unintentional islanding conditions and conventional forecast errors of both renewable generation and loads, a two-stage adaptive robust optimization is proposed to minimize the total operating cost of networked microgrids in the worst scenario of the modeled uncertainties. By coordinating the dispatch of distributed energy resources (DERs) and responsive demand among networked microgrids, the total operating cost is minimized, which includes the start-up and shut-down cost of distributed generators (DGs), the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost of DGs, the cost of buying/selling power from/to the utility grid, the degradation cost of energy storage systems (ESSs), and the cost associated with load shedding. The proposed optimization is solved with the column and constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. The results of case studies demonstrate the advantages of networked microgrids over independent microgrids in terms of reducing total operating cost and improving the resilience of power supply.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Wind Energy Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report: Fiscal Year 2022

Four decades ago, construction was just beginning on experimental turbines at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC). Today, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) facility is the centerpiece of the laboratory's Flatirons Campus, a world-class hub for renewable energy research. The nation's shift to 100% clean electricity by 2035 will require a mix of renewable energy sources and strategies - and together, wind and solar energy could account for 60% to 80% of that clean energy resource. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2022, NREL scientists, engineers, and analysts contributed to these visionary goals through their wind energy research. As wind innovations push into new areas, NREL continues to play a vital role in advancing technology and addressing deployment barriers in pursuit of more efficient, reliable, and predictable wind energy systems. FY 2022 wind research and development explored the potential for dramatic growth in land-based systems, the launch of the nation's first commercial-scale offshore installations, and transmission infrastructure buildout. Land-based wind energy is one of the most cost-effective electricity supply options - but utility-scale deployment will require up to 10 times the current number of turbines. An NREL plan addressed this need to accelerate U.S. wind technology rollout at distributed and utility scales. Another project conducted by NREL and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) helps position the nation's first major offshore wind corridor for success. The WETO-funded Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study is evaluating options for balancing electricity supply and demand, while supporting resilience of the grid and marine industries. WETO, NREL, and other partners are working to enable the enormous supply chain and workforce changes the U.S. wind energy industry will need to meet net-zero-carbon-emissions targets. As part of a seminal series of DOE-funded supply chain studies, NREL analysts reported on the trade-offs involved in manufacturing large volumes of wind technologies, while addressing cost, workforce, and logistics issues. All of this research is supported by NREL's outstanding research teams, tools, data, and facilities. A WETO-funded international wind energy field campaign, the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN), has brought together experts from NREL, PNNL, and Sandia National Laboratories to create the world's most comprehensive set of high-resolution data on wind energy atmospheric phenomenon. This study could lead to more accurate predictions of losses from turbine-to-turbine wake interactions, eventually helping wind plants capture more energy and operators save millions of dollars. In addition, NREL researchers developed testing, modeling, and analysis tools to improve the security of power grids by identifying wind power plant dynamic stability problems. A new Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator (SSRS) protects golden eagles from turbine encounters by predicting flight paths. This report provides more detail on these top achievements and other accomplishments made by NREL and its partners during FY 2022 (between October 1, 2021, and September 30, 2022).

accomplishments↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Holistic DSMC Transport Database for Re-Entry and Ablation Modeling

Hybrid simulation frameworks combining Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) are frequently employed to efficiently perform high-fidelity solutions of environments containing combined continuum/rarified flow. The use of DSMC, a stochastic, particle-based method, is necessary for high-Knudsen flow where continuum-based assumptions governing CFD break down. However, the DSMC methodology is generally very computationally inefficient to model the continuum regime. In a CFD/DSMC hybrid approach, obtaining an accurate, high-fidelity solution hinges on the consistent treatment of transport properties and the used thermo-chemical models employed within the two solvers. In principle, in regions where CFD and DSMC are both employed, the same gas mixture under the same conditions should have the same properties, regardless of simulation type. Observed differences should be due to non-equilibrium processes, rather than differences in physical models. While the transport models governing CFD and DSMC simulations are starkly different, they can effectively be linked via their use of reduced Chapman-Enskog collision integrals. In CFD, these integrals are typically stored as fitted polynomial expressions and used to directly compute gas transport properties via mixing rules or the full Chapman-Enskog formulation. In DSMC, they can be used to derive the collision parameters needed for the phenomenological collision cross-section models that govern particle interactions, via a Nelder-Mead optimization scheme. The goal of this work is to provide a unified DSMC transport database encompassing the vast majority of known gas species encountered during atmospheric entry, on Earth or any other Solar body. This goal is largely possible due to recently performed ab-initio quantum chemistry calculations. Combined with other high-fidelity literature sources, the planned database will consist of collision integral data for over 200 neutral and ionized species and over 17000 binary collisions. From these collision integrals, Nelder-Mead optimization is used to compute Variable Soft Sphere (VSS) collision model parameters for DSMC, fitted from 300 K to 20000 K. Initial comparisons of transport properties of relevant equilibrium gas mixtures show great agreement between CFD and DSMC-derived results. The completed database will be able to be readily applied to model binary collisions of any gas mixture containing the included species over the specified temperature range, making it a valuable tool for future planetary probe modeling efforts. An example is shown below. Equilibrium mixture transport properties for a 19-species Titan atmospheric model [4] are computed using both fitted VSS parameters and the original CFD collision integral values. Deviations in computed properties between the two approaches is less than 5% for the entire temperature range.

M R Gosma↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2003

Unified Models of Turbulence and Nonlinear Wave Evolution in the Extended Solar Corona and Solar Wind

The PI (Cranmer) and Co-I (A. van Ballegooijen) made significant progress toward the goal of building a "unified model" of the dominant physical processes responsible for the acceleration of the solar wind. The approach outlined in the original proposal comprised two complementary pieces: (1) to further investigate individual physical processes under realistic coronal and solar wind conditions, and (2) to extract the dominant physical effects from simulations and apply them to a one-dimensional and time-independent model of plasma heating and acceleration. The accomplishments in the report period are thus divided into these two categories: 1a. Focused Study of Kinetic MHD Turbulence. We have developed a model of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence in the extended solar corona that contains the effects of collisionless dissipation and anisotropic particle heating. A turbulent cascade is one possible way of generating small-scale fluctuations (easy to dissipate/heat) from a pre-existing population of low-frequency Alfven waves (difficult to dissipate/heat). We modeled the cascade as a combination of advection and diffusion in wavenumber space. The dominant spectral transfer occurs in the direction perpendicular to the background magnetic field. As expected from earlier models, this leads to a highly anisotropic fluctuation spectrum with a rapidly decaying tail in the parallel wavenumber direction. The wave power that decays to high enough frequencies to become ion cyclotron resonant depends on the relative strengths of advection and diffusion in the cascade. For the most realistic values of these parameters, though, there is insufficient power to heat protons and heavy ions. The dominant oblique waves undergo Landau damping, which implies strong parallel electron heating. We thus investigated the nonlinear evolution of the electron velocity distributions (VDFs) into parallel beams and discrete phase-space holes (similar to those seen in the terrestrial magnetosphere) which are an alternate means of heating protons via stochastic interactions similar to particle-particle collisions. 1b. Focused Study of the Multi-Mode Detailed Balance Formalism. The PI began to explore the feasibility of using the "weak turbulence," or detailed-balance theory of Tsytovich, Melrose, and others to encompass the relevant physics of the solar wind. This study did not go far, however, because if the "strong" MHD turbulence discussed above is a dominant player in the wind's acceleration region, this formalism is inherently not applicable to the corona. We will continue to study the various published approaches to the weak turbulence formalism, especially with an eye on ways to parameterize nonlinear wave reflection rates. 2. Building the Unified Model Code Architecture. We have begun developing the computational model of a time-steady open flux tube in the extended corona. The model will be "unified" in the sense that it will include (simultaneously for the first time) as many of the various proposed physical processes as possible, all on equal footing. To retain this generality, we have formulated the problem in two interconnected parts: a completely kinetic model for the particles, using the Monte Carlo approach, and a finite-difference approach for the self-consistent fluctuation spectra. The two codes are run sequentially and iteratively until complete consistency is achieved. The current version of the Monte Carlo code incorporates gravity, the zero-current electric field, magnetic mirroring, and collisions. The fluctuation code incorporates WKJ3 wave action conservation and the cascade/dissipation processes discussed above. The codes are being run for various test problems with known solutions. Planned additions to the codes include prescriptions for nonlinear wave steepening, kinetic velocity-space diffusion, and multi-mode coupling (including reflection and refraction).

Cranmer, Steven R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Software For Advanced Large-scale Analysis Of Magnetic Confinement For Numerical Design, Engineering & Research (salamander)

As magnetic confinement fusion energy gains traction internationally to enable abundant energy production, designing components for fusion systems is a pressing challenge. During the planned lifetime of a fusion device, components evolve in extreme environments and must withstand large, repeated thermal loads and bombardment by 14 MeV neutrons, plasma ions, and neutral particles (deuterium, tritium, and helium), corrosive conditions, etc. All these physical processes take place simultaneously, interact in intricate ways, and impose important constraints that can affect performance. Experimental data is rare and costly to obtain, making design particularly challenging. Predictive computational frameworks must be an integral part of an accelerated and cost-effective design process by modeling fusion system performance in simulated environments. To better understand component degradation and operational impacts on their performance, the Software for Advanced Large-scale Analysis of MAgnetic confinement for Numerical Design, Engineering & Research (SALAMANDER) is designed as an open-source, fully integrated, multiphysics, multiscale, NQA-1 compliant framework facilitating 3D, high-fidelity fusion system modeling. To that end, SALAMANDER is a MOOSE-based framework, and therefore leverages MOOSE upstream libraries such as PETSc and libMesh to deliver sophisticated finite element, finite volume, and nonlinear solver technology for fusion energy simulations. SALAMANDER couples MOOSE physics module capabilities—such as thermal hydraulics, heat conduction, Navier-Stokes, and thermomechanics—with tritium transport via TMAP8, neutronics via Cardinal, and nascent particle-in-cell capabilities. Direct simulation Monte Carlo methods will be used to address neutral transport near the walls. By coupling all these physics in an integrated application, SALAMANDER will enable high-fidelity modeling of irradiation levels and plasma exposure conditions of plasma facing components and their impact on heat and tritium distributions, as well as the resulting mechanical constraints experienced by the plasma facing components and performance of blanket systems. Furthermore, SALAMANDER will be particularly suited for engineering studies thanks to the stochastic tool module readily available in MOOSE, allowing for extended uncertainty quantification and risk analysis studies. It is also able to use computer-aided design (CAD) meshes to model complex geometries, which is indispensable for fusion systems. SALAMANDER therefore supports design, safety, engineering, and research projects for magnetic confinement fusion systems

Simon, Pierre-Clement [Idaho National Laboratory (↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages

Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by rain decreases, as the size of a pixel becomes smaller. This means that within what looks like a patch of rainy area in a coarse resolution view with larger pixel size, one finds clusters of rainy and dry patches when viewed on a finer scale. The model makes definite predictions about how these and other related statistics depend on the pixel size. These predictions were found to agree well with data. In a subsequent second part of the work we plan to test the model with rain gauge data collected during the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) ground validation campaign.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗

DOE OSTI2022

How Can Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts Be Used to Lower Costs and Improve Reliability in Power Spot Markets? A Review and Application to Flexiramp Requirements

Net load uncertainty in electricity spot markets is rapidly growing. There are five general approaches by which system operators and market participants can use probabilistic forecasts of wind, solar, and load to help manage this uncertainty. These include operator situation awareness, resource risk hedging, reserves procurement, definition of contingencies, and explicit stochastic optimization. We review these approaches, and then provide a case study in which a method for using probabilistic solar forecasts to define needs for reserves is developed and evaluated. The case study has three parts. First, we describe building blocks for enhancing the Watt-Sun solar forecasting system to produce probabilistic irradiance and power forecasts. Second, relationships between Watt-Sun forecasts for multiple sites in California and the system's need for flexible ramp capability (flexiramp) are defined by machine learning and statistical methods. Third, the performance of present methods to defining flexiramp requirements, which are not conditioned on weather and renewables forecasts, is compared with that of probabilistic solar forecast-based requirements, using a multi-timescale production costing model with an 1820-bus representation of the WECC power system. Significant potential savings in fuel and flexiramp procurement costs from using solar-informed reserve requirements are found.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Impact of Crosstalk in the X-IFU Instrument on Athena Science Cases

In this paper we present a first assessment of the impact of various forms of instrumental crosstalk on the science performance of the X-ray Integral Field Unit (X-IFU) on the Athena X-ray mission. This assessment is made using the SIXTE end-to-end simulator in the context of one of the more technically challenging science cases for the XIFU instrument. Crosstalk considerations may influence or drive various aspects of the design of the array of high-count-rate Transition Edge Sensor (TES) detectors and its Frequency Domain Multiplexed (FDM) readout architecture. The Athena X-ray mission was selected as the second L-class mission in ESA's Cosmic Vision 2015–25 plan, with alaunch foreseen in 2028, to address the theme ''Hot and Energetic Universe"1. One of the two instruments on boardAthena is the X-ray Integral Field Unit2 (X-IFU) which is based on an array of ~3800 Transition Edge Sensors (TES's)operated at a temperature of ~90 mK. The science cases pose an interesting challenge for this instrument, as they requirea combination of high energy resolution (2.5 eV FWHM or better), high spatial resolution (5 arcsec or better) and highcount rate capability (several tens of counts per second per detector for point sources as bright as 10 mCrab).The performance at the single sensor level has been demonstrated3, but the operation of such detectors in an array, usingmultiplexed readout, brings additional challenges, both for the design of the array in which the sensors are placed and forthe readout of the sensors. The readout of the detector array will be based on Frequency Domain Multiplexing (FDM)4.In this system of detectors and readout, crosstalk can arise through various mechanisms: on the TES array, neighboringsensors can couple through thermal crosstalk. Detectors adjacent in carrier frequency may suffer from electrical crosstalkdue to the finite width of the bandpass filters, and shared sources of impedance in their signal lines. The signals from theindividual detectors are summed and then amplified by a pair of SQUID amplifiers before being sent to warm front-endelectronics. The transfer function of the SQUID amplifiers is non-linear, which will give rise to higher harmonics ofcarriers and intermodulation products when multiple signal pulses are simultaneously present in the SQUID. Under highcount rate conditions this is another source of crosstalk. The effect of all these crosstalk sources is that parasitic pulseswill appear in the record of a signal pulse which will create a stochastic offset of the measured energy and thus adegradation of the energy resolution.

SIXTE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Temporal complementarity and value of wind-PV hybrid systems across the United States

Not Available

Harrison-Atlas, Dylan (ORCID:0000000252173355)↗

DOE OSTI2022

FORCE-DISPATCHES Integration - Initial Demonstration

Integrated energy systems (IES) combine, in mutually beneficial ways, power from variable renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants (NPP) to improve economic viability under uncertain market and weather conditions. The open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has enabled comprehensive modeling and simulation of IES. The capabilities within FORCE include grid portfolio optimization through the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the transient process model analysis library HYBRID, among others. Continuous efforts and investments from the IES programs have been made to expand and improve the versatility of the FORCE toolset in fiscal year 2022. Code-coupling and cross-tool communication have been important methods for improving this versatility. This report focuses on an additional workflow in the HERON tool for capacity and dispatch stochastic optimization through integration with the external tool Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES). DISPATCHES was primarily developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory, in collaboration with other national laboratories, which included INL, universities, and industry partners. It is coupled to a library of algebraic models for specific plant components, and to a framework for stochastic optimization different from that provided in the current Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN)-running-RAVEN algorithm in HERON. HERON currently conducts stochastic optimization via an outer-inner loop: it optimizes over variable capacity on the outer loop, and at each step within the capacity parameter space, conducts an inner optimization over scenarios (of market signals, demand, and/or weather patterns) and hourly dispatch throughout a user-specified number of years. On the other hand, DISPATCHES conducts stochastic optimization via an “all-at-once” strategy in which capacity variables are optimized at the same level as dispatch variables, as all scenarios are considered at once. The latter method works especially well for projects of limited size and project length, as the necessary computational power and memory increases with the number of variables and scenarios. The new capability to use the DISPATCHES workflow in HERON enhances standalone simulations by leveraging FORCE tools—namely, the economic metrics from the Tool for Economic Analysis (TEAL) and reduced-order model (ROM) sampling from RAVEN. The initial demonstration of the DISPATCHES workflow simulates an existing nuclear-case flowsheet within the DISPATCHES repository—this models a NPP with a secondary revenue stream for hydrogen production. Electrical output from the plant is converted to hydrogen via a proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer, hydrogen tanks are used for storage, and an additional turbine is added for hydrogen combustion. Continued work regarding this FORCE-DISPATCHES integration will include automatic generation of DISPATCHES models from HERON inputs, offering analysts the option of using either the RAVEN-runsRAVEN or DISPATCHES workflow to solve technoeconomic optimization problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗