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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14

Desktop Modeling and Simulation: Parsimonious, yet Effective Discrete-Event Simulation Analysis

This paper evaluates how quickly students can be trained to construct useful discrete-event simulation models using Excel The typical supply chain used by many large national retailers is described, and an Excel-based simulation model is constructed of it The set of programming and simulation skills required for development of that model are then determined we conclude that six hours of training are required to teach the skills to MBA students . The simulation presented here contains all fundamental functionallty of a simulation model, and so our result holds for any discrete-event simulation model. We argue therefore that Industry workers with the same technical skill set as students having completed one year in an MBA program can be quickly trained to construct simulation models. This result gives credence to the efficacy of Desktop Modeling and Simulation whereby simulation analyses can be quickly developed, run, and analyzed with widely available software, namely Excel.

Bradley, James R.↗

A Review of the Resuspension of Radioactively Contaminated Particles by Vehicle and Pedestrian Traffic—Current Theory, Practice, Gaps, and Needs

Here, the resuspension of radioactively contaminated particles in a built environment, such as from urban surfaces like foliage, building exteriors, and roadways, is described empirically by current plume and dosimetry models used for hazard assessment and long-term risk purposes. When applying these models to radiological contamination emergencies affecting urban areas, the accuracy of the results for recent contamination deposition is impacted in two main ways. First, the data supporting the underlying resuspension equations was acquired for open, quiescent conditions with no vehicle traffic or human activities, so it is not necessarily representative of the urban environment. Second, mechanical disturbance by winds in urban canyons and during emergency operations caused by vehicle traffic and human activities are not directly considered by the equations. Accordingly, plume and dosimetry models allow the user to input certain compensating values, but the models do not necessarily supply users instructions on what values to use. This manuscript reviews the available literature to comprehensively and consistently pool data for resuspension due to mechanically induced resuspension applicable to urban contamination. Because there are few studies that directly measured radioactive resuspension due to vehicles and pedestrians, this review novelly draws on a range of other studies involving non-radioactive particles, ranging from outdoor air pollution emissions to indoor allergen transport. The results lead to tabulated, recommended values for specific conditions in the emergency phase to help users of plume and dosimetry models maintain the conservativeness needed to properly capture the potential radiation dose posed by mechanically induced resuspension. These values are of benefit to model users until better data are available. The results also suggest the types of data that may result in improved plume and dose modeling.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Baseline Medical System Translation for the Impact Medical Database

NASA has developed a new evidence-based data-driven probabilistic risk assessment and tradespace analysis tool as a successor to the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). This updated decision support tool is known as IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces). Whereas IMM focuses on the resources and risks associated with International Space Station (ISS) and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions, IMPACT estimates the frequency and consequences of medical conditions that might arise during exploration missions. One of the services offered by IMM is a series of generic or baseline medical systems associated with typical mission types or DRMs (Design Reference Missions), such that requestors may prioritize questions pertaining to the mission itself over the medical supplies indicated by the model outputs for that DRM. In a mission focused request, the appropriate baseline medical system is used in place of a prepared or optimized medical kit. In preparation, an effort was undertaken to create baseline systems of medical resources within IMPACT suitable for typical DRMs. Using an existing baseline medical system within IMM’s Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) as a starting point, the resources found within the medical kit were compared to and substituted for equivalent resources available within the IMPACT MD (Medical Database). In consultation with clinicians with knowledge of IMPACT’s MD, each resource was matched as closely as possible to a similarly purposed resource in IMPACT, seeking to preserve the treatment capabilities and procedures offered by the IMM medical system while reconciling the differences in modeled resources and medical conditions between the models. To demonstrate the efficacy of this work, a prototype ISS medical system in IMPACT was translated from the baseline used in the IMM. The appropriate medical system was then run through its associated medical model to compare and validate the resultant risks and risk mitigation provided by each baseline ISS medical kit.

S Schwartz↗

Economic feasibility of in-motion wireless power transfer in a high-density traffic corridor

Electricity is expected to become a dominant power source in the transportation sector, but under a stationary recharging model, electric powered vehicles still suffer some disadvantages relative to conventional vehicles. Recent developments in wireless power transfer (WPT) technology can enable an alternative vehicle recharging model wherein power is supplied to vehicles while they are moving, mitigating the need for charging stops and high-capacity on-board energy storage. One of the greatest concerns associated with dynamic WPT is that the required infrastructure costs would be prohibitively high; however, the life-cycle costs and benefits of such a system have been under-researched. Here in this work, we apply a systems-level assessment to a case study of a WPT charging system located on the densely trafficked I-710 corridor in Los Angeles, California. Detailed cost estimates for electronics and implementation, high-fidelity energy consumption modeling, and survey-derived adoption projections are applied to evaluate scenarios of economic feasibility and environmental impact. Results show that a “1st-of-a-kind” system can achieve a payback in 20 years while maintaining operating cost advantages relative to petroleum fueling. System economics are shown to improve substantially with “nth-of-a-kind” capital costs. Discussion focuses on the effect of uptake trajectory on economic viability and detailed economics outcomes for light duty and heavy duty vehicles.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The complex circuitry of interactions determining coexistence among plants and mycorrhizal fungi

We present a mechanistic model of coexistence among a mycorrhizal fungus and one or two plant species that compete for a single nutrient. Plant–fungal coexistence is more likely if the fungus is better at extracting the environmental nutrient than the plant and the fungus acquires carbon from the plant above a minimum rate. When they coexist, their interaction can shift from mutualistic to parasitic at high nutrient availability. The fungus is a second nutrient source for plants and can promote the coexistence of two plant competitors if one is better at environmental nutrient extraction and the other is better at acquiring the nutrient from the fungus. Because it extracts carbon from both plants, the fungus also serves as a conduit of apparent competition between the plants. Consequently, the plant with the lower environmental nutrient extraction rate can drive the plant with the higher environmental nutrient extraction rate extinct at high carbon supply rates. Furthermore, this model illustrates mechanisms to explain several observed patterns, including shifts in plant–mycorrhizal growth responses and coexistence along nutrient gradients, equivocal results among experiments testing the effect of mycorrhizal fungi on plant diversity, and differences in plant diversity among ecosystems dominated by different mycorrhizal groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Employing a Modified Diffuser Momentum Model to Simulate Ventilation of the Orion CEV

The Ansys CFX CFD modeling tool was used to support the design efforts of the ventilation system for the Orion CEV. CFD modeling was used to establish the flow field within the cabin for several supply configurations. A mesh and turbulence model sensitivity study was performed before the design studies. Results were post-processed for comparison with performance requirements. Most configurations employed straight vaned diffusers to direct and throw the flow. To manage the size of the models, the diffuser vanes were not resolved. Instead, a momentum model was employed to account for the effect of the diffusers. The momentum model was tested against a separate, vane-resolved side study. Results are presented for a single diffuser configuration for a low supply flow case.

Straus, John↗

Analysis of structural dynamic data from Skylab. Volume 1: Technical discussion

The results of a study to analyze data and document dynamic program highlights of the Skylab Program are presented. Included are structural model sources, illustration of the analytical models, utilization of models and the resultant derived data, data supplied to organization and subsequent utilization, and specifications of model cycles.

Demchak, L.↗

High speed turboprop aeroacoustic study (single rotation). Volume 1: Model development

A frequency-domain noncompact-source theory for the steady loading and volume-displacement (thickness) noise of high speed propellers has been developed and programmed. Both near field and far field effects have been considered. The code utilizes blade surface pressure distributions obtained from three-dimensional nonlinear aerodynamic flow field analysis programs as input for evaluating the steady loading noise. Simplified mathematical models of the velocity fields induced at the propeller disk by nearby wing and fuselage surfaces and by angle-of-attack operation have been developed to provide estimates of the unsteady loading imposed on the propeller by these potential field type interactions. These unsteady blade loadings have been coupled to a chordwise compact propeller unsteady loading noise model to provide predictions of unsteady loading noise caused by these installation effects. Finally, an analysis to estimate the corrections to be applied to the free-field noise predictions in order to arrive at the measurable fuselage sound pressure levels has been formulated and programmed. This analysis considers the effects of fuselage surface reflection and diffraction together with surface boundary layer refraction. The steady loading and thickness model and the unsteady loading model have been verified using NASA-supplied data for the SR-2 and SR-3 model propfans. In addition, the steady loading and thickness model has been compared with data from the SR-6 model propfan. These theoretical models have been employed in the evaluation of the SR-7 powered Gulfstream aircraft in terms of noise characteristics at representative takeoff, cruise, and approach operating conditions. In all cases, agreement between theory and experiment is encouraging.

Whitfield, C. E.↗

Offshore wind and wave energy can reduce total installed capacity required in zero-emissions grids

Abstract As the world races to decarbonize power systems to mitigate climate change, the body of research analyzing paths to zero emissions electricity grids has substantially grown. Although studies typically include commercially available technologies, few of them consider offshore wind and wave energy as contenders in future zero-emissions grids. Here, we model with high geographic resolution both offshore wind and wave energy as independent technologies with the possibility of collocation in a power system capacity expansion model of the Western Interconnection with zero emissions by 2050. In this work, we identify cost targets for offshore wind and wave energy to become cost effective, calculate a 17% reduction in total installed capacity by 2050 when offshore wind and wave energy are fully deployed, and show how curtailment, generation, and transmission change as offshore wind and wave energy deployment increase.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050

Intersecting socio-demographic transformations and warming climates portend increasing worldwide heat exposures and health sequelae. Cooling adaptation via air conditioning (AC) is effective, but energy-intensive and constrained by household-level differences in income and adaptive capacity. Using statistical models trained on a large multi-country household survey dataset (n = 673,215), we project AC adoption and energy use to mid-century at fine spatial resolution worldwide. Globally, the share of households with residential AC could grow from 27% to 41% (range of scenarios assessed: 33-48%), implying up to a doubling of residential cooling electricity consumption, from 1220 to 1940 (scenarios range: 1590-2377) terawatt-hours yr. –1 , emitting between 590 and 1,365 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e). AC access and utilization will remain highly unequal within and across countries and income groups, with significant regressive impacts. Up to 4 billion people may lack air-conditioning in 2050. Our global gridded projections facilitate incorporation of AC’s vulnerability, health, and decarbonization effects into integrated assessments of climate change.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Machine learning model to project the impact of COVID-19 on U.S. motor gasoline demand

Owing to the global lockdowns that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic, fuel demand plummeted and the price of oil futures went negative in April 2020. Robust fuel demand projections are crucial to economic and energy planning and policy discussions. Here we incorporate pandemic projections and people's resulting travel and trip activities and fuel usage in a machine-learning-based model to project the US medium-term gasoline demand and study the impact of government intervention. We found that under the reference infection scenario, the US gasoline demand grows slowly after a quick rebound in May, and is unlikely to fully recover prior to October 2020. Under the reference and pessimistic scenario, continual lockdown (no reopening) could worsen the motor gasoline demand temporarily, but it helps the demand recover to a normal level quicker. Under the optimistic infection scenario, gasoline demand will recover close to the non-pandemic level by October 2020. The COVID 19 pandemic and consequent lockdown has had a substantial impact on mobility and therefore fuel demand and it is not clear when demand will recover. Ou et al. use a machine learning model that integrates health recovery scenarios to project the near-term future of gasoline demand.

COVID-19 pandemic↗

MFRED, 10 second interval real and reactive power for groups of 390 US apartments of varying size and vintage

Abstract Building electricity is a major component of global energy use and its environmental impacts. Detailed data on residential electricity use have many interrelated research applications, from energy conservation to non-intrusive load monitoring, energy storage, integration of renewables, and electric vs. fossil-based heating. The dataset presented here, Multifamily Residential Electricity Dataset (MFRED), contains the electricity use of 390 apartments, ranging from studios to four-bedroom units. All apartments are located in the Northeastern United States (IECC-climate-zone 4 A), but differ in their heating/cooling system and construction year (early to late 20 th century). To adhere to privacy guidelines, data were averaged across 15 apartments each, based on annual electricity use. MFRED includes real and reactive power, at 10-second resolution, for January to December 2019 (246 million data points). The annual average real power per apartment is 343 W (3.27 W/m 2 of floor area), with strong variation between seasons and apartment size. Considering its large number of apartments, high time resolution, real and reactive power, and 12-month duration, MFRED is currently unique for the multifamily-sector.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A database of hourly wind speed and modeled generation for US wind plants based on three meteorological models

Abstract In 2022, wind generation accounted for ~10% of total electricity generation in the United States. As wind energy accounts for a greater portion of total energy, understanding geographic and temporal variation in wind generation is key to many planning, operational, and research questions. However, in-situ observations of wind speed are expensive to make and rarely shared publicly. Meteorological models are commonly used to estimate wind speeds, but vary in quality and are often challenging to access and interpret. The Plant-Level US multi-model WIND and generation (PLUSWIND) data repository helps to address these challenges. PLUSWIND provides wind speeds and estimated generation on an hourly basis at almost all wind plants across the contiguous United States from 2018–2021. The repository contains wind speeds and generation based on three different meteorological models: ERA5, MERRA2, and HRRR. Data are publicly accessible in simple csv files. Modeled generation is compared to regional and plant records, which highlights model biases and errors and how they differ by model, across regions, and across time frames.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Long-term basin-scale hydropower expansion under alternative scenarios in a global multisector model

Abstract Hydropower is an important source of renewable, low-carbon energy. Global and regional energy systems, including hydropower, may evolve in a variety of ways under different scenarios. Representation of hydropower in global multisector models is often simplified at the country or regional level. Some models assume a fixed hydropower supply, which is not affected by economic drivers or competition with other electricity generation sources. Here, we implement an endogenous model of hydropower expansion in the Global Change Analysis Model, including a representation of hydropower potential at the river basin level to project future hydropower production across river basins and explore hydropower’s role in evolving energy systems both regionally and globally, under alternative scenarios. Each scenario utilizes the new endogenous hydropower implementation but makes different assumptions about future low-carbon transitions, technology costs, and energy demand. Our study suggests there is ample potential for hydropower to expand in the future to help meet growing demand for electricity driven by socioeconomic growth, electrification of end-use sectors, or other factors. However, hydropower expansion will be constrained by resource availability, resource location, and cost in ways that limit its growth relative to other technologies. As a result, all scenarios show a generally decreasing share of hydroelectricity over total electricity generation at the global level. Hydropower expansion varies across regions, and across basins within regions, due to differences in resource potential, cost, current utilization, and other factors. In sum, our scenarios entail hydropower generation growth between 36% and 119% in 2050, compared to 2015, globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nuclear Material Process Modeling at the Y-12 National Security Complex

Dynamic simulation modeling is used at Y-12 to evaluate and forecast nuclear material inventories and production capacities to ensure that future supply can meet mission demand. Model outputs are analyzed by numerous Y-12 organizations and programs and coordinated with NNSA’s Office of Secondary Stage Production Modernization. Data-driven decisions for both short-term and long-term strategic planning for Y-12 mission execution are informed by the model. Dynamic simulation modeling capabilities for Y-12 nuclear material production continue to be expanded and refined.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Reducing Memory Consumption in Calico with Shared Memory

This document details the work to reduce memory consumption in Calico. Calico is SimTools’ Constructive Solid Geometry (CSG) and geometry painting library. It is primarily used to paint material volume fractions in the Eulerian meshes of the physics codes. Calico provides point-in-body checks for the geometry supplied by an Oso model, which are then aggregated by the host codes. In addition, Calico can be used to build Oso models and is used by Ingen for that purpose. Oso models, and thus Calico, provide support for various CSG primitives such as spheres, cylinders, surfaces generated by rotating tabular curve data, and STL files as well as binary combinations of those primitives. Prior to refactoring Calico will run out of memory on CTS-1 machines when 36 MPI ranks are used per node when reading STL models on the order of 1.5 GB. This limitation is a bottleneck in designer workflow. This problem has been alleviated through the use of data structures to both reduce memory consumption and to leverage MPI-3 shared memory. This report details the data structures targeted for refactoring in Calico, the methods and implementation details for reducing memory consumption and leveraging shared memory, and results for one test problem. Results show a memory reduction when loading a 1 GB STL file by a factor of 27.5, from 93.4 to 3.4 GB.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗