Meteor research program
Statistics from synoptic year sample of 20,000 radar meteor observations using eight station radar network
Cook, A. F., II↗
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Statistical model of meteor streams. IV - A study of radio streams from the synoptic year
The paper gives a detailed description of a search procedure for radio meteor streams and reports the detection of 275 streams in a synoptic-year sample of 19,698 radio meteors observed by the radar system of the Radio Meteor Project at Havana, Illinois. The orbital elements and related parameters of the detected streams are presented, the two parameters of the D-distribution of the streams are determined, and their mean radiants are plotted. Possible associations between the streams and possible parent objects are identified; it is found that streams may be associated with seven periodic comets, five other comets, at least nine asteroids (especially Adonis), and several fireballs. The mean space density in the streams is found to be much lower than the sporadic density, although the central density may be considerably greater than the sporadic density. It is shown that the derived absolute stream-density values are in agreement with the order of magnitude of the space densities estimated from cometary production rates for solid material of comparable particle size.
Sekanina, Z.↗
A preliminary look at AVE-SESAME 5 conducted on 20-21 May 1979
Information on data collected, synoptic conditions, and severe and unusual weather reported during the period are presented. Records of the synoptic conditions include synoptic charts, radar charts, satellite photographs, and rainfall observations.
July, M.↗
The measurement of the synoptic scale wind over the ocean
Mesoscale and microscale features of the turbulent winds over the ocean are related to the synoptic scale winds in terms of published spectral forms for the microscale, a mesoscale valley and published values of U*, VAR u', VAR v' and z/L, as defined in the text and as obtained for moderate to gale force winds. The frequencies involved correspond to periods longer than 1 hour and extend to the microscale, which starts at a period near 2 minutes, or so, and continues to the Kolmogorov inertial range. Nondimensional spectra that span both the mesoscale and the microscale are derived as a function of u, f(= n z/u) and z/L, where z is 10 meters, L is the Monin Obukov stability length and u is evaluated at 10 meters. For the same u, different values of z/L produce a range of values of u which in turn result in variations of the eddy structure of the mesoscale and microscale spectra. Both conventional anemometer averages and remotely sensed winds contain a random component of the mesoscale wind in their values. These components are differnces and not errors when winds are compared, and quantitative values for these differences are given. Ways to improve the measurement of the synoptic scale wind by transient ships, data buoys and scatterometers on future spacecraft are described. These ways are loner averaging times for ships and data buoys, depending on the synoptic conditions, and pooling spacecraft to form super observations. Design considerations for future remote sensing systems are given.
Pierson, W. J.↗
The Arctic tropopause fold
Analyses of research-aircraft observations, satellite total-columnar-ozone retrievals, and synoptic upper-air soundings are used to describe the structure of Arctic jetstreams and their associated frontal zones and tropopause folds. These analyses document the presence of major tropopause folding events within the Arctic that occur at the flanks of large-scale (about 2000 km) polar vortices. One example shows a solar vortex and its associated tropopause fold and Arctic front that migrated from the high Canadian Arctic southward into midlatitudes over central North America. Total columnar ozone measurements from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer are shown to identify the location of polar vortices and the mesoscale (about 200 km) ozone gradients at the flanks of these vortices, which coincide with regions of Arctic tropopause folding and associated stratospheric-tropospheric exchange processes.
Shapiro, M. A.↗
Robotic missions to Mars - Paving the way for humans
NASA is in the planning stages of a program leading to the human exploration of Mars. A critical element in that program is a set of robotic missions that will acquire information on the Martian environment and test critical functions (such as aerobraking) at the planet. This paper presents some history of Mars missions, as well as results of recent studies of the Mars robotic missions that are under consideration as part of the exploration program. These missions include: (1) global synoptic geochemical and climatological characterization from orbit (Mars Observer), (2) global network of small meteorological and seismic stations, (3) sample returns, (4) reconnaissance orbiters and (5) rovers.
Pivirotto, D. S.↗
Effects of spatial variations of soil moisture and vegetation on the evolution of a prestorm environment - A numerical case study
To examine the effects of spatial variations of soil moisture and vegetation coverage on the evolution of a prestorm environment, the Goddard mesoscale model is modified to incorporate a simple evapotranspiration model that requires these two parameters. The case study of 3-4 June 1980 is of special interest due to the development of a tornado producing convective complex near Grand Island, Nebraska during a period of comparatively weak synoptic-scale forcing. It is shown that the observed stationary front was strongly enhanced by differential heating created by observed gradients of soil moisture, as acted upon by the vegetation cover.
Chang, Jy-Tai↗
The structure of the inner heliosphere from Pioneer Venus and IMP observations
The IMP 8 and Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) spacecraft explore the region of heliographic latitudes between 8 deg N and 8 deg S. Solar wind observations from these spacecraft are used to construct synoptic maps of solar wind parameters in this region. These maps provide an explicit picture of the structure of high speed streams near 1 AU and how that structure varies with time. From 1982 until early 1985, solar wind parameters varied little with latitude. During the last solar minimum, the solar wind developed strong latitudinal structure; high speed streams were excluded from the vicinity of the solar equator. Synoptic maps of solar wind speed are compared with maps of the coronal source surface magnetic field. This comparison reveals the expected correlation between solar wind speed near 1 AU, the strength of the coronal magnetic field, and distance from the coronal neutral line.
Gazis, P. R.↗
Utilization of UARS Data in Validation of Photochemical and Dynamical Mechanism in Stratospheric Models
We proposed model-data intercomparison studies for UARS data. In the past three months, we have been working on constructing analysis tools to diagnose the UARS data. The 'Trajectory mapping' technique, which was developed by Morris (1994), is adaptable to generate synoptic maps of trace gas data from asynoptic observations. An in-house trajectory model (kinematic methods following Merrill et al., 1986 and Pickering et al., 1994) has been developed in AER under contract with NASA/ACMAP and the trajectory mapping tool has been applied to analyze UARS measurement.
Rodriquez, Jose M.↗
Using OSSEs to Evaluate the Impacts of Geostationary Infrared Sounders
An observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) was performed to assess the impact of assimilating hyperspectral infrared (IR) radiances from geostationary orbit on numerical weather prediction, with a focus on the proposed sounder on board the Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) program’s central satellite. Infrared sounders on a geostationary platform would fill several gaps left by IR sounders on polar-orbiting satellites, and the increased temporal resolution would allow the observation of weather phenomena evolution. The framework for this OSSE was the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) OSSE system, which includes a full suite of meteorological observations. The experiment additionally assimilated four identical IR sounders from geostationary orbit to create a “ring” of vertical profiling observations. Based on the experimentation, assimilation of the IR sounders provided a beneficial impact on the analyzed mass and wind fields, particularly in the tropics, and produced an error reduction in the initial 24–48 h of the subsequent forecasts. Specific attention was paid to the impact of the GeoXO Sounder (GXS) over the contiguous United States (CONUS) as this is a region that is well-observed and as such difficult to improve. The forecast sensitivity to observation impact (FSOI) metric, computed across all four synoptic times over the CONUS, reveals that the GXS had the largest impact on the 24-h forecast error of the assimilated hyperspectral infrared satellite radiances as measured using a moist energy error norm. Based on this analysis, the proposed GXS has the potential to improve numerical weather prediction globally and over the CONUS.
OSSE↗
Towards Precision Photometric Type ia Supernova Cosmology With Machine Learning
The revolutionary discovery of dark energy and accelerating cosmic expansion was made with just 42 type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in 1999. Since then, large synoptic surveys, e.g., Dark Energy Survey (DES), have observed thousands more SNe Ia and the upcoming Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and Roman Space Telescope promise to deliver millions in the next decade. This unprecedented data volume can produce the required precision to unambiguously test concordance cosmology which could represent a monumental shift in our understanding of dark energy and its role in cosmic history. However, extracting a pure SN Ia sample with accurate redshifts for such a large dataset will be a challenge. Specifically, spectroscopic classification will not be possible for the vast majority of discovered objects, and only ~25% will have spectroscopic redshifts. This thesis presents a series of observational and methodological studies designed to address the questions associated with this new era of photometric SN Ia cosmology. First, we present a machine learning method for photometric classification of SNe, Supernova Classification with a COnvolutional Neural Network (SCONE). Photometric classification enables SNe with no spectroscopic information to be confidently categorized, and is a critical component of current and future analysis pipelines. SCONE achieves >99% accuracy distinguishing simulated SNe Ia from non-Ia SNe, and has been integrated into DES, LSST, and Roman analysis pipelines. We also demonstrate the efficacy of SCONE on early-time photometric classification, which will be vital for optimal allocation of spectroscopic resources. We show that SCONE can distinguish between 6 SN types with 75% accuracy on the night of initial discovery, comparable to results in the literature for full-phase SNe. Next, we study current methods for estimating SN Ia redshifts and propose a machine learning alternative that uses SN photometry alone to extract redshift information. Most SNe Ia inherit redshift information from their host galaxy, but the process of matching SNe to the correct host galaxy can be challenging. We systematically analyze the impact of incorrect redshifts from host galaxy mismatch on 5 years of DES SN data, and conclude that improved host matching or redshift estimation methods can reduce our systematic errors by ~10%. In response to this finding, we present a SN photometry-only method for estimating redshifts independent of host galaxy information, Photo-zSNthesis. We show that Photo-zSNthesis redshift estimates are accurate to within 2% across the full redshift range of LSST, a first in the literature. Finally, we focus on the robustness of machine learning (ML) algorithms for real-world and scientific applications. ML models generalize poorly beyond their training set and often experience severe performance degradation when deployed on new data. We demonstrate a general method for improving robustness that achieves new state-of-the-art results on astronomical object classification, wildlife identification, and tumor detection.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
In Situ Observations of PSCs Generated by Gravity Waves
During SOLVE, the bulk of the in-situ observations of PSCs are of large scale extended structures associated with synoptic scale cooling. The nature of these structures is also determined by layers of high relative NOy that have been stretched into thin layers by advective processes. Some of the in situ observations, however, are clearly correlated with gravity wave signatures. The first goal of this work is to examine these cases and evaluate gravity wave parameters. In particular, we are interested in the intrinsic periods of the waves and their temperature amplitude, which are key ingredients in the nucleation process. Secondly, we will examine some rudimentary properties of the particle size distributions and composition, comparing these with in situ observations of the more extended PSC features. Finally, we will attempt to ascertain the mechanism which generates the gravity waves.
Pfister, Leonhard↗
Observations of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer’s Response to a Solar Eclipse
The atmospheric response to the solar eclipse of 8 April 2024 in North America is investigated with a specific focus on the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). We leverage measurements collected during the Third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3), including Doppler lidars, sonic anemometers, and thermodynamic profiler data to investigate the atmospheric response across sites that experienced partial eclipse conditions with nearly 90% obscuration. Using these measurements, we examine eclipse-induced changes in key meteorological parameters, such as temperature, wind speed, and turbulent fluxes. Most previous eclipse studies have been conducted over land, whereas this study provides new observations for both coastal and marine environments, offering additional insight into eclipse-driven variability in the MABL. The findings confirm a notable decrease in downwelling shortwave radiation during the eclipse, which results in rapid cooling of surface air. The temperature reduction ranges from $1.2^\circ \text {C}$ to $1.4^\circ \text {C}$ in coastal regions and from $0.3^\circ \text {C}$ to $0.5^\circ \text {C}$ over the ocean. This analysis suggests that the MABL’s higher thermal inertia compared to coastal regions moderates the temperature decrease during the eclipse. Wind speed exhibits a more complex behavior, as it is influenced by both the MABL and preexisting synoptic conditions. Although a reduction in wind speed is observable up to approximately 140 m above ground level (AGL) at more inland sites, at other locations closer to the coast, this reduction is constrained to the lowest 100 m AGL. Turbulence parameters retrieved from sonic anemometers, such as turbulence kinetic energy, turbulent heat flux, and friction velocity, decrease during the eclipse at coastal sites, accompanied by a brief transition of atmospheric stability from unstable to neutral or weakly stable conditions. For the open-ocean sites, the variability in turbulence statistics and atmospheric stability is minimal during the occurrence of the eclipse.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model
Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.
global warming↗
H-alpha synoptic charts of solar activity during the first year of solar cycle 20, October 1964 - August 1965
Solar activity during the period October 28, 1964 through August 27, 1965 is presented in the form of charts for each solar rotation constructed from observations made with the chromospheric H-alpha spectra line. These H-alpha synoptic charts are identical in format and method of construction to those published for the period of Skylab observations. The sunspot minimum marking the start of Solar Cycle 20 occurred in October, 1964; therefore, charts represent solar activity during the first year of this solar cycle.
Mcintosh, P. S.↗
Nocturnal Observations of the Semidiurnal Tide at a Midlatitude Site
Fabry-Perot interferometer observations of the mesospheric hydroxyl emission and the lower thermospheric OI (5577A) emission have been conducted from an airglow observatory at a dark field site in southeastern Michigan for the past several years. The primary functions of the observatory are to provide a database for correlative observations with the UARS satellite and to provide a synoptic measurement program for the coupling energetics and dynamics of atmospheric regions effort, An intensive operational effort between May 1993 and July 1994 has resulted in a substantial data set from which neutral winds have been determined from the bifilter acquisition sequence. A 'best fit' analysis in the least squares sense of the simultaneous measurements of the neutral winds to a 12-hour periodicity has provided amplitude and phase parameters for the semidiurnal tide as well as a measure of the mean wind. The measured tidal amplitude is greater at the higher altitude, though the seasonal behavior at both altitudes is similar with greater amplitudes during August/September and April/May. Both meridional and zonal wind components are consistent with a semidiurnal tidal description during the entire observational sequence except for the May to July 1993 period. The mean winds show annual variation in the meridional flow, being equatorward from May to October and poleward during the winter. The zonal flow is primarily eastward during the entire observational window with higher speed flows during May/June at the higher attitude and June/July at the lower altitude. A comparison with a semidiurnal tidal model indicates that the measured tidal amplitudes are a factor of 2 times greater, while the phases show similar equinoctial transitions.
Niciejewski, R. J.↗
The China Clipper - Fast advective transport of radon-rich air from the Asian boundary layer to the upper troposphere near California
A series of upper tropospheric radon concentration measurements made over the eastern Pacific and west coast of the U.S. during the summers of 1983 and 1984 has revealed the occurrence of unexpectedly high radon concentrations for 9 of the 61 measurements. A frequency distribution plot of the set of 61 observations shows a distinct bimodal distribution, with approximately 2/5 of the observations falling close to 1 pCi/SCM, and 3/5 falling in a high concentration mode centered at about 11 pCi/SCM. Trajectory and synoptic analyses for two of the flights on which such high radon concentrations were observed indicate that this radon-rich air originated in the Asian boundary layer, ascended in cumulus updrafts, and was carried eastward in the fast moving air on the anticyclonic side of the upper tropospheric jet. The results suggest that the combination of rapid vertical transport from the surface boundary layer to the upper troposphere, followed by rapid horizontal transport eastward represents an efficient mode of long-transport for other, chemically reactive atmospheric trace constituents.
Kritz, Mark A.↗
Nonlinear feedbacks between stratocumulus and synoptic-scale systems
The research progress for FY-91 is presented. Wintertime and springtime stratocumulus observations for a number of 5-day periods were collected. Close correlations between the mean 850 and 500 mb trough positions and cloud cover over marine areas were found. A linear study of the radiatively-driven interaction between stratocumulus and synoptic-scale waves was completed. Shallow surface-bound traveling waves are created that are strongly dependent on the phase relation between cloud and low-level flow. A nonlinear model is now under development that will permit a more detailed investigation of these interactions. Finally, a nonlinear study of the modifications of the background flow by boundary layer roll vortices was revised for submission for publication. The research plans for FY-92 are included.
Clark, John H. E.↗