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NASA NTRS1996

Trends and Issues in Fuzzy Control and Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling

Everyday experience in building and repairing things around the home have taught us the importance of using the right tool for the right job. Although we tend to think of a 'job' in broad terms, such as 'build a bookcase,' we understand well that the 'right job' associated with each 'right tool' is typically a narrowly bounded subtask, such as 'tighten the screws.' Unfortunately, we often lose sight of this principle when solving engineering problems; we treat a broadly defined problem, such as controlling or modeling a system, as a narrow one that has a single 'right tool' (e.g., linear analysis, fuzzy logic, neural network). We need to recognize that a typical real-world problem contains a number of different sub-problems, and that a truly optimal solution (the best combination of cost, performance and feature) is obtained by applying the right tool to the right sub-problem. Here I share some of my perspectives on what constitutes the 'right job' for fuzzy control and describe recent advances in neuro-fuzzy modeling to illustrate and to motivate the synergistic use of different tools.

Chiu, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS2010

In-Flight Operation of the Dawn Ion Propulsion System: Status at One Year from the Vesta Rendezvous

The Dawn mission, part of NASA's Discovery Program, has as its goal the scientific exploration of the two most massive main-belt asteroids, Vesta and Ceres. The Dawn spacecraft was launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on September 27, 2007 on a Delta-II 7925H-9.5 (Delta-II Heavy) rocket that placed the 1218 kg spacecraft into an Earth-escape trajectory. On-board the spacecraft is an ion propulsion system (IPS) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory which will provide most of the delta V needed for heliocentric transfer to Vesta, orbit capture at Vesta, transfer among Vesta science orbits, departure and escape from Vesta, heliocentric transfer to Ceres, orbit capture at Ceres, and transfer among Ceres science orbits. The Dawn ion thruster [I thought we only called it a thruster. Both terms are used in the paper, but I think a replacement of every occurrence of "engine" with "thruster" would be clearer.] design is based on the design validated on NASA's Deep Space 1 (DS1) mission. However, because of the very substantial (11 km/s) delta V requirements for this mission Dawn requires two engines to complete its mission objectives. The power processor units (PPU), digital control and interface units (DCIU) slice boards and the xenon control assembly (XCA) are derivatives of the components used on DS1. The DCIUs and thrust gimbal assemblies (TGA) were developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The spacecraft was provided by Orbital Sciences Corporation, Sterling, Virginia, and the mission is managed by and operated from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Dawn partnered with Germany, Italy and Los Alamos National Laboratory for the science instruments. The mission is led by the principal investigator, Dr. Christopher Russell, from the University of California, Los Angeles. The first 80 days after launch were dedicated to the initial checkout of the spacecraft followed by cruise to Mars. Cruise thrusting leading to a Mars gravity assist began on December 17, 2007 and was successfully concluded as planned on October 31, 2008. During this time period the Dawn IPS was operated mostly at full power for approximately 6500 hours, consumed 71.7 kg of xenon and delivered approximately 1.8 km/s of delta V to the spacecraft. The thrusting to Mars was followed by a coasting period of approximately 3.5 months that included a Mars flyby in February of 2009. The Mars flyby provided a gravity assist (MGA) for a plane change and approximately 1 km/s of heliocentric energy increase and is the only part of the mission following launch in which a needed velocity change is not accomplished by the IPS. During the coast period IPS was operated for a trajectory correction maneuver and for engineering tests but was not operated for primary propulsion. Closest approach to Mars occurred as planned on February 17, 2009 and was followed by another coasting period of just under 4 months in duration. During this last coasting phase IPS was operated only for routine maintenance activities and for system engineering tests. Deterministic thrusting for heliocentric transfer to Vesta resumed on June 8, 2009. Since resumption of cruise to Vesta IPS has been operated at throttled power levels, most of the time at full power, and with a duty cycle of approximately 93%, leading to an arrival at Vesta in July of 2011 and arrival at Ceres in February 2015. This paper provides an overview of Dawn's mission objectives and the results of Dawn IPS mission operations through one year from the spacecraft's rendezvous with Vesta.

Garner, Charles E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Performance Measurement, Visualization and Modeling of Parallel and Distributed Programs

This paper presents a methodology for debugging the performance of message-passing programs on both tightly coupled and loosely coupled distributed-memory machines. The AIMS (Automated Instrumentation and Monitoring System) toolkit, a suite of software tools for measurement and analysis of performance, is introduced and its application illustrated using several benchmark programs drawn from the field of computational fluid dynamics. AIMS includes (i) Xinstrument, a powerful source-code instrumentor, which supports both Fortran77 and C as well as a number of different message-passing libraries including Intel's NX Thinking Machines' CMMD, and PVM; (ii) Monitor, a library of timestamping and trace -collection routines that run on supercomputers (such as Intel's iPSC/860, Delta, and Paragon and Thinking Machines' CM5) as well as on networks of workstations (including Convex Cluster and SparcStations connected by a LAN); (iii) Visualization Kernel, a trace-animation facility that supports source-code clickback, simultaneous visualization of computation and communication patterns, as well as analysis of data movements; (iv) Statistics Kernel, an advanced profiling facility, that associates a variety of performance data with various syntactic components of a parallel program; (v) Index Kernel, a diagnostic tool that helps pinpoint performance bottlenecks through the use of abstract indices; (vi) Modeling Kernel, a facility for automated modeling of message-passing programs that supports both simulation -based and analytical approaches to performance prediction and scalability analysis; (vii) Intrusion Compensator, a utility for recovering true performance from observed performance by removing the overheads of monitoring and their effects on the communication pattern of the program; and (viii) Compatibility Tools, that convert AIMS-generated traces into formats used by other performance-visualization tools, such as ParaGraph, Pablo, and certain AVS/Explorer modules.

Yan, Jerry C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

2018 NISAR Applications Workshop: Forest and Disturbance; Workshop Report

Forest lands cover the globe and are important sources for providing ecosystem services including: carbon sequestration, biodiversity, timber, air and water quality. As such, counties around the world have dedicated programs for managing them. Accurate and timely information concerning the status of these forests (moisture, biomass, disturbance type, etc.) is essential to those Nations’ human and ecological health as well as economy. The joint NASA/US Forest Service workshop focused on arming forest land managers with observations and remote sensing information from the upcoming NASA-ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) (NISAR) satellite mission (expected to launch early 2022). Participants included representatives from different US Federal Agencies, private sector, and non-governmental organizations (NGO) that are key players in facilitating integration of Earth Observations (EO) into forest management and decision support workflows. They included scientists, technicians, and program managers with a responsibility for data acquisition and exploitation such as product development, delivery, and use, and capacity building. Discussions were held over two days to convey the broader forest and disturbance community information needs for various representative participants and programs and to facilitate the delivery of NISAR mission geospatial products and observational capabilities. Case studies were presented to demonstrate the current state of practice in the use of SAR remote sensing for applications of direct importance to forest and disturbance land management community. Eleven organizations presented their information requirements in response to a set of questions provided by the NASA team, then the NASA team responded by describing the degree to which NISAR could meet these requirements. Discussion ensued about needed data product specifications to increase utility (e.g., projection, latency, etc.), tools and capacity building. The general findings of this workshop were that (a) NISAR observations will be particularly useful to the global forest carbon and disturbance monitoring applications, but that certain data product design decisions (projections and radiometric and terrain corrections) need to be considered to increase utility; b) the biomass and disturbance detection algorithms meet many of the community needs, however there are other information products of value (e.g., soil moisture or disturbance classification, not just detection) and all products should be compliant with existing community standards for reporting uncertainty; c) providing SAR education to the community will be key specifically thinking about putting the information first and the SAR theory second, providing a simple guide of standard data processing steps (e.g., dB (decibel) to power conversion and speckle filtering); d) the community needs a user-friendly interface for finding free, archived data over their geographic regions of interest; e) user-friendly tools that connect to open-sources GIS (Global Information System) software (e.g., QGIS (Quantum GIS)) that include a graphical user interface (GUI) for SAR processing that enables both download and cloud processing. To integrate these findings and prepare the community before NISAR launches, it was suggested that there be a dedicated NISAR Forest and Disturbance Applications Working Group (as per the specifications in the NISAR Utilization Plan). After launch, it was decided that the community continue capacity building activities.

Stavros, Natasha↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Obtaining Public Opinion about sUAS Activity in an Urban Environment

The Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) research project has been developing and testing concept ideas for enabling small UAS (sUAS) operations in low altitude airspace (ground to 400 feet). To do this, a series of flight test demonstrations were organized over five years at seven test sites. Technology Capability Level-4 (TCL4), the most complex flight tests, were conducted in Texas, USA, during August 2019. This testing resulted in over 400 data collection flights using eight live rotorcraft, with nine flight crews flying pre-planned scenarios in the urban downtown and waterfront areas of Corpus Christi, Texas. Test scenarios were designed to include a variety of elements, including live and simulated vehicles, and personnel in many different roles, including flight crews and mission personnel. One group of people who did not have a role in the flight tests but will be affected by UAS operations as they become more ubiquitous, are the general public. What do the public think about sUAS operations in urban areas? In order to obtain a reference point that noted the public's view of the operations in the TCL4 demonstration, a short survey was developed and offered to members of the public who wished to comment on the sUAS activities they saw in their city during two weeks in August, 2019.Forty five people completed the online public opinion survey. Participants volunteered to take it, creating a self-selected sample. The survey included eleven questions that asked participants about their level of comfort and concerns with UAS activity; their knowledge of UAS operations; and, whether a traffic management system like UTM would increase their confidence in urban UAS activity. The general public in Corpus Christi showed a good level of knowledge of sUAS regulations, with almost half of their responses to the knowledge portion of the survey being correct. They expressed a moderate level of concern (x = 4.7 out of 7) at urban sUAS activity and, of those who cited a concern, the majority reported this was about privacy (54%), which are all responses in line with those reported in earlier research on public opinion. Views on UTM were mixed, with respondents indicating they thought the introduction of UTM will improve safety somewhat (5.2 out of 7) but it will also increase their concern a little (4.6 out of 7). This would indicate there needs to be more information and educational material about the UTM concept made available to the public with the aim to reduce public concerns about the system.

Caterina Grossi↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Obtaining Public Opinion About sUAS Activity in an Urban Environment

The Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) research project has been developing and testing concept ideas for enabling small UAS (sUAS) operations in low altitude airspace (ground to 400 feet). To do this, a series of flight test demonstrations were organized over five years at seven test sites. Technology Capability Level-4 (TCL4), the most complex flight tests, were conducted in Texas, USA, during August 2019. This testing resulted in over 400 data collection flights using eight live rotorcraft, with nine flight crews flying pre-planned scenarios in the urban downtown and waterfront areas of Corpus Christi, Texas. Test scenarios were designed to include a variety of elements, including live and simulated vehicles, and personnel in many different roles, including flight crews and mission personnel. One group of people who did not have a role in the flight tests but will be affected by UAS operations as they become more ubiquitous, are the general public. What do the public think about sUAS operations in urban areas? In order to obtain a reference point that noted the public’s view of the operations in the TCL4 demonstration, a short survey was developed and offered to members of the public who wished to comment on the sUAS activities they saw in their city during two weeks in August, 2019. Forty five people completed the online public opinion survey. Participants volunteered to take it, creating a self-selected sample. The survey included eleven questions that asked participants about their level of comfort and concerns with UAS activity; their knowledge of UAS operations; and, whether a traffic management system like UTM would increase their confidence in urban UAS activity. The general public in Corpus Christi showed a good level of knowledge of sUAS regulations, with almost half of their responses to the knowledge portion of the survey being correct. They expressed a moderate level of concern (x = 4.7 out of 7) at urban sUAS activity and, of those who cited a concern, the majority reported this was about privacy (54%), which are all responses in line with those reported in earlier research on public opinion. Views on UTM were mixed, with respondents indicating they thought the introduction of UTM will improve safety somewhat (5.2 out of 7) but it will also increase their concern a little (4.6 out of 7). This would indicate there needs to be more information and educational material about the UTM concept made available to the public with the aim to reduce public concerns about the system.

UTM↗
NASA NTRS1990

Flight mechanics applications for tethers in space: Cooperative Italian-US programs

Since the 1974 proposal by Giuseppe Colombo to fly a tethered subsatellite from the Shuttle Orbiter, the creative thinking of many scientists and engineers from Italy and U.S. has generated a broad range of potential tether applications in space. Many of these applications have promise for enabling innovative research and operational activities relating to flight mechanics in earth orbit and at suborbital altitudes. From a flight mechanics standpoint the most interesting of the currently proposed flight demonstrations are: the second Tethered Satellite System experiment which offers both the potential for aerothermodynamics and hypersonics research and for atmospheric science research; the Tethered Initiated Space Recovery System which would enable orbital deboost and recovery of a re-entry vehicle and waste removal from a space station; and the Tether Elevator/Crawler System which would provide a variable microgravity environment and space station center of mass management. The outer atmospheric and orbital flight mechanics characteristics of these proposed tether flight demonstrations are described. The second Tethered Satellite System mission will deploy the tethered satellite earthward and will bring it as low as 130 km from ground and thus into the transition region between the atmosphere (non-ionized) and the partially ionized ionosphere. The atmospheric flight mechanics of the tethered satellite is discussed and simulation results are presented. The Tether Initiated Space Recovery System experiment will demonstrate the ability of a simple tether system to deboost and recover a reentry vehicle. The main feature of this demonstration is the utilization of a Small Expendable Deployment System (SEDS) and the low-tension deployment assumed to separate the reentry vehicle from the Shuttle. This low-tension deployment maneuver is discussed and its criticalities are outlined. The Tether Elevator/Crawler System is a new space element able to move in a controlled way between the ends of a deployed tethered system. A Shuttle test of an Elevator model is planned to demonstrate the unique capability of this element as a microgravity facility and to test the transfer motion control. The basic dynamical features of the Elevator system are presented and a preliminary assessment of the Elevator-induced tether vibrations is discussed.

Bevilacqua, Franco↗
NASA NTRS2007

Robust Fuzzy Controllers Using FPGAs

Electro-mechanical device controllers typically come in one of three forms, proportional (P), Proportional Derivative (PD), and Proportional Integral Derivative (PID). Two methods of control are discussed in this paper; they are (1) the classical technique that requires an in-depth mathematical use of poles and zeros, and (2) the fuzzy logic (FL) technique that is similar to the way humans think and make decisions. FL controllers are used in multiple industries; examples include control engineering, computer vision, pattern recognition, statistics, and data analysis. Presented is a study on the development of a PD motor controller written in very high speed hardware description language (VHDL), and implemented in FL. Four distinct abstractions compose the FL controller, they are the fuzzifier, the rule-base, the fuzzy inference system (FIS), and the defuzzifier. FL is similar to, but different from, Boolean logic; where the output value may be equal to 0 or 1, but it could also be equal to any decimal value between them. This controller is unique because of its VHDL implementation, which uses integer mathematics. To compensate for VHDL's inability to synthesis floating point numbers, a scale factor equal to 10(sup (N/4) is utilized; where N is equal to data word size. The scaling factor shifts the decimal digits to the left of the decimal point for increased precision. PD controllers are ideal for use with servo motors, where position control is effective. This paper discusses control methods for motion-base platforms where a constant velocity equivalent to a spectral resolution of 0.25 cm(exp -1) is required; however, the control capability of this controller extends to various other platforms.

Monroe, Author Gene S., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Foreign Object Debris: FOD Prevention QS210LSK-REV

Housekeeping in the space industry? You may think the idea isn't technical enough for the shuttle program. Yet, eliminating Foreign Object Debris or FOD is an important goal for USA and NASA. The justification for this effort is based on data from the aeronautics industry. Experience has shown that if debris is not controlled, it may later cause a variety of in-flight issues. FOD can result in material damage, or make systems and equipment inoperable unsafe, or less efficient

Randolph, Sherry↗
NASA NTRS1994

On dust emissions from the jovian system

As described by Grun et al. the dust impact detector on the Ulysses spacecraft detected a totally unexpected series of dust streams in the outer solar system near the orbit of Jupiter. Five considerations lead us to believe that the dust streams emanate from the jovian system itself: (1) the dust streams only occur within about 1 AU of the jovian system, with the strongest stream being the one closest to Jupiter (about 550 R(sub J) away); (2) the direction from which they arrive is never far from the line-of-sight direction to Jupiter; (3) the time period between streams is about 28 (plus or minus 3) days; (4) the impact velocities are very high - mostly around 40 km s(exp -1); and (5) we can think of no cometary, asteroidal, or interstellar source that could give rise to the above four phenomena; such streams have never before been detected.

Zook, Herbert A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Short Course on Lithium-Ion Batteries: Fundamental Concepts, Battery Safety, and Modeling Techniques

When developing this course several years back I asked myself, "What do I think the TFAWS community needs to know about lithium-ion batteries and why should they care?" I think the answers to these questions can be boiled down to the following statements: 1. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery electrical performance and efficiency are heavily driven by thermal conditions. 2. Li-ion battery assemblies can experience single cell thermal runaway events which can lead to cell-to-cell propagation; these are thermally driven failure events that can be controlled with effective thermal management systems. 3. Knowledge of BOTH Li-ion battery fundamentals AND traditional thermal design principles are required to develop safe battery assemblies that are both gravimetrically and volumetrically optimized.This year the Short Course on Lithium-ion Batteries will be presented in a 2-part series. The first portion, "Fundamentals, Battery Safety, and Thermal Runaway," will focus on educating participants on the fundamental aspects of Li-ion batteries and on battery safety related topics (i.e. thermal runaway, cell-to-cell propagation, safe handling practices, et...). The second portion, "Practical Thermal Simulation Techniques," will provide participants with a real time demonstration of how to use Thermal Desktop to model of Li-ion battery assemblies. This part of the lesson will cover geometry simplification, mesh development, boundary conditions, and heat loads for both nominal operations (charge and discharge) and for thermal runaway events.

Walker, William↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Loader for Executing Multi-Binary Applications on the Thinking Machines CM-5: It's Not Just for SPMD Anymore

The Thinking Machines CM-5 platform was designed to run single program, multiple data (SPMD) applications, i.e., to run a single binary across all nodes of a partition, with each node possibly operating on different data. Certain classes of applications, such as multi-disciplinary computational fluid dynamics codes, are facilitated by the ability to have subsets of the partition nodes running different binaries. In order to extend the CM-5 system software to permit such applications, a multi-program loader was developed. This system is based on the dld loader which was originally developed for workstations. This paper provides a high level description of dld, and describes how it was ported to the CM-5 to provide support for multi-binary applications. Finally, it elaborates how the loader has been used to implement the CM-5 version of MPIRUN, a portable facility for running multi-disciplinary/multi-zonal MPI (Message-Passing Interface Standard) codes.

Becker, Jeffrey C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Overview of the SAE G-11 RMSL (Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability, and Logistics) Division Activities and Technical Projects

The SAE G-11 RMSL (Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability, and Logistics) Division activities include identification and fulfillment of joint industry, government, and academia needs for development and implementation of RMSL technologies. Four Projects in the Probabilistic Methods area and two in the area of RMSL have been identified. These are: (1) Evaluation of Probabilistic Technology - progress has been made toward the selection of probabilistic application cases. Future effort will focus on assessment of multiple probabilistic softwares in solving selected engineering problems using probabilistic methods. Relevance to Industry & Government - Case studies of typical problems encountering uncertainties, results of solutions to these problems run by different codes, and recommendations on which code is applicable for what problems; (2) Probabilistic Input Preparation - progress has been made in identifying problem cases such as those with no data, little data and sufficient data. Future effort will focus on developing guidelines for preparing input for probabilistic analysis, especially with no or little data. Relevance to Industry & Government - Too often, we get bogged down thinking we need a lot of data before we can quantify uncertainties. Not True. There are ways to do credible probabilistic analysis with little data; (3) Probabilistic Reliability - probabilistic reliability literature search has been completed along with what differentiates it from statistical reliability. Work on computation of reliability based on quantification of uncertainties in primitive variables is in progress. Relevance to Industry & Government - Correct reliability computations both at the component and system level are needed so one can design an item based on its expected usage and life span; (4) Real World Applications of Probabilistic Methods (PM) - A draft of volume 1 comprising aerospace applications has been released. Volume 2, a compilation of real world applications of probabilistic methods with essential information demonstrating application type and timehost savings by the use of probabilistic methods for generic applications is in progress. Relevance to Industry & Government - Too often, we say, 'The Proof is in the Pudding'. With help from many contributors, we hope to produce such a document. Problem is - not too many people are coming forward due to proprietary nature. So, we are asking to document only minimum information including problem description, what method used, did it result in any savings, and how much?; (5) Software Reliability - software reliability concept, program, implementation, guidelines, and standards are being documented. Relevance to Industry & Government - software reliability is a complex issue that must be understood & addressed in all facets of business in industry, government, and other institutions. We address issues, concepts, ways to implement solutions, and guidelines for maximizing software reliability; (6) Maintainability Standards - maintainability/serviceability industry standard/guidelines and industry best practices and methodologies used in performing maintainability/ serviceability tasks are being documented. Relevance to Industry & Government - Any industry or government process, project, and/or tool must be maintained and serviced to realize the life and performance it was designed for. We address issues and develop guidelines for optimum performance & life.

Singhal, Surendra N.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Beam Steering Devices Reduce Payload Weight

Scientists have long been able to shift the direction of a laser beam, steering it toward a target, but often the strength and focus of the light is altered. For precision applications, where the quality of the beam cannot be compromised, scientists have typically turned to mechanical steering methods, redirecting the source of the beam by swinging the entire laser apparatus toward the target. Just as the mechanical methods used for turning cars has evolved into simpler, lighter, power steering methods, so has the means by which researchers can direct lasers. Some of the typical contraptions used to redirect lasers are large and bulky, relying on steering gimbals pivoted, rotating supports to shift the device toward its intended target. These devices, some as large and awkward as a piece of heavy luggage, are subject to the same issues confronted by mechanical parts: Components rub, wear out, and get stuck. The poor reliability and bulk not to mention the power requirements to run one of the machines have made mechanical beam steering components less than ideal for use in applications where weight, bulk, and maneuverability are prime concerns, such as on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) or a microscope. The solution to developing reliable, lighter weight, nonmechanical steering methods to replace the hefty steering boxes was to think outside the box, and a NASA research partner did just that by developing a new beam steering method that bends and redirects the beam, as opposed to shifting the entire apparatus. The benefits include lower power requirements, a smaller footprint, reduced weight, and better control and flexibility in steering capabilities. Such benefits are realized without sacrificing aperture size, efficiency, or scanning range, and can be applied to myriad uses: propulsion systems, structures, radiation protection systems, and landing systems.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2005

Vehicle Assembly Building Fire Mishap Investigation Report. Volume I of V

On January 13, 2005, at approximately 1355, smoke was noticed on the 4th floor of D Tower in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB). Subsequently, a 911 call was made, a fire alarm pull station was activated, and the VAB was evacuated. The source of the smoke was determined to be a fire on the Low Bay M/N section roof near the Launch Control Center (LCC) Crossover. Due to the high visibility of the mishap, the KSC Center Director appointed a Mishap Investigation Board. Damage to government property was limited to the roof and a small number of ceiling tiles that were damaged by the fire fighters during the response. At the time of the mishap, there were hazardous commodities in the VAB including Solid Rocket Motors (SRMs) with open grain due to Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) igniter inspections. The Board agrees with the SGS Fire Services' theory that large amounts of smoke concentrated in the VAB D Tower and moved downward into the cable tunnel. The Board determined the proximate cause of this incident to be torching. HRI was installing a torch applied roof membrane which resulted in the ignition of combustible materials under the membrane near a wooden roof expansion joint. The torch applied roofing method is a universally accepted safe industry practice when applied to non-combustible surfaces. The combination of an open flame torch and combustible materiaLs presents an increased level of risk even with skilled applicators. The addition of high winds to this combination results in a risk the Board thinks can not be adequately mitigated. An appropriate risk assessment and analysis must be performed on the proposed roofing method to be used on high visibility facilities which represent unique national assets even when using common industry practices for repair and modification. The Board identified three root causes which contributed to or created the proximate cause and, if eliminated or modified, would have prevented the mishap: 1. Combustible materials in existing roof system 2. Wind speed and direction 3. Inadequate fire watch technique. Two contributing factors were identified which may have contributed to the occurrence but, if eliminated or modified, would not have prevented the occurrence: 1. HRI rushed to dry in and seal the roof on January 13 because heavy rain was predicted for the next day 2. No guidance on torching in windy conditions A total of 17 significant observations were noted during this investigation, which could lead to another mishap, or increase the severity of a mishap, but were not contributing factors in this mishap.

Kight, Ira↗
NASA NTRS2020

Using Bayesian Estimation to Quantify the Risks of Spaceflight

Complex PRA is the best method and current gold standard, as it allows us to reflect changes (improvements) in individual spacecraft system risks over time. Yet, Bayesian methods – using simple inputs – allowed us to get estimates that are in line with high-complexity PRA. Here Bayesian estimation acts as a “gut check” on PRA (supposing a “reasonable” prior is used). Frequentist calculations can overestimate P(failure), especially when total number of trials are few (e.g., after Challenger). In general, Bayesian probability estimation can be used in any risk assessment situation to integrate what we think we know ahead of time with what we observe over time.

Reynolds, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

STS Case Study Development Support

The Shuttle Case Study Collection (SCSC) has been developed using lessons learned documented by NASA engineers, analysts, and contractors. The SCSC provides educators with a new tool to teach real-world engineering processes with the goal of providing unique educational materials that enhance critical thinking, decision-making and problem-solving skills. During this third phase of the project, responsibilities included: the revision of the Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML) source code to ensure all pages follow World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) standards, and the addition and edition of website content, including text, documents, and images. Basic HTML knowledge was required, as was basic knowledge of photo editing software, and training to learn how to use NASA's Content Management System for website design. The outcome of this project was its release to the public.

Rosa de Jesus, Dan A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Methods to Collect and Analyze Data on Human Contributions to Aviation Safety: A Panel Discussion

Focusing on undesired operator behaviors is pervasive in system design and safety management cultures in aviation. This focus limits the data that are collected, the questions that are asked during data analysis, and therefore our understanding of what operators do in everyday work. Human performance represents a significant source of aviation safety data that includes both desired and undesired actions. When safety is characterized only in terms of errors and failures, the vast majority of human impacts on system safety and performance are ignored. The outcomes of safety data analyses dictate what is learned from those data, which in turn informs safety policies and safety-related decision making. When learning opportunities are systematically restricted by focusing only on rare failure events, not only do we learn less (and less often), but we can draw misleading conclusions by relying on a non-representative sample of human performance data. Changes in how we define and think about safety can highlight new opportunities for collection and analysis of safety-relevant data. Developing an integrated safety picture to better inform safety-related decision making and policies depends upon identifying, collecting, and interpreting safety-producing behaviors in addition to safety-reducing behaviors. Opportunities and challenges in collecting and analyzing the largely unexploited data on desired, safety-producing operator behaviors are discussed.

Aviation Safety↗