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NASA NTRS2018

Constraining the Thickness of Polar Ice Deposits on Mercury Using the Mercury Laser Altimeter and Small Craters in Permanently Shadowed Regions

Radar-bright deposits at the poles of Mercury are located in permanently shadowed regions, which pro- vide thermally stable environments for hosting and retaining water ice on the surface or in the near sub- surface for geologic timescales. While the areal distribution of these radar-bright deposits is well characterized, their thickness, and thus their total mass and volume, remain poorly constrained. Here we derive thickness estimates for selected water-ice deposits using small, simple craters visible within the permanently shadowed, radar-bright deposits. We examine two endmember scenarios: in Case I, these craters predate the emplacement of the ice, and in Case II, these craters postdate the emplacement of the ice. In Case I, we find the difference between estimated depths of the original unfilled craters and the measured depths of the craters to find the estimated infill of material. The average estimated infilled material for 9 craters assumed to be overlain with water ice is ∼41 +30 −14 m, where 1 −σ standard error of the mean is reported as uncertainty. Reported uncertainties are for statistical errors only. Additional systematic uncertainty may stem from georeferencing the images and topographic datasets, from the radial accuracy of the altimeter measurements, or from assumptions in our models including (1) ice is flat in the bowl- shaped crater and (2) there is negligible ice at the crater rims. In Case II, we derive crater excavation depths to investigate the thickness of the ice layer that may have been penetrated by the impact. While the absence of excavated regolith associated with the small craters observed suggests that impacts generally do not penetrate through the ice deposit, the spatial resolution and complex illumination geometry of images may limit the observations. Therefore, it is not possible to conclude whether the small craters in this study penetrate through the ice deposit, and thus Case II does not provide a constraint on the ice thickness. For Mercury’s polar deposits, we argue that Case I of the small craters predating the emplacement of the ice deposits is more likely, given other geologic evidence that suggests that these ice deposits are relatively young. Using the ice thickness estimates from Case I to calculate the total amount of water ice currently contained in Mercury’s polar deposits results in a value of ∼10 14 –10 15 kg. This is equivalent to ∼100–1000 km 3 ice in volume. This volume of water ice is consistent with delivery via micrometeorite bombardment, Jupiter-family comets, or potentially a single impactor.

Deutsch, Ariel N.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A new approach to the study of the turbulence layer

Turbulent thermal convection is of considerable importance in fluid dynamical transport phenomena occurring, for example, in the planetary boundary layer of the Earth, the interiors of stars, and accretion disks. In particular, during a significant portion of the evolutionary phase of many stars having convectively unstable cores or outer envelopes, a substantial fraction of energy is transported from the central layers to the outer layers by thermal convection. Moreover, as much of the interior of a star is in highly turbulent motion, a complete theory of stellar structure and evolution requires the explicit consideration of turbulence in order to have expressions for the turbulent quantities arising in the stellar structure equations, and particularly, the turbulent fluxes that appear in the total flux conservation equation, such as the convective flux, kinetic energy flux, etc. A reliable quantification of these fluxes continues to present a challenge in astrophysical fluid dynamics, primarily because astrophysical turbulence is almost always fully-developed and nearly inviscid, and therefore governed by strong nonlinear interactions that distribute the energy among a very wide spectrum of eddies with scales ranging from the characteristic dimension of the flow to those sufficiently small to be affected by viscous dissipation. Furthermore, astrophysical flows are invariably compressible, anisotropic, and inhomogeneous, which requires the consideration of the dynamics of longitudinal modes and their interaction with the transverse modes, as well as complicated boundary conditions. In order to reach a compromise between analytical and numerical tractability and the basic physics of turbulent convection, we have constructed a model of stationary turbulent convection that yields various turbulence statistics, including the convective flux, that are required in stellar evolution models.

Levenson, Ruth A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Simultaneous X-Ray and Infrared Observations of Sagittarius A*'s Variability

Emission from Sagittarius A* is highly variable at both X-ray and infrared (IR) wavelengths. Observations over the last ∼20 yr have revealed X-ray flares that rise above a quiescent thermal background about once per day, while faint X-ray flares from Sgr A* are undetectable below the constant thermal emission. In contrast, the IR emission of Sgr A* is observed to be continuously variable. Recently, simultaneous observations have indicated a rise in IR flux density around the same time as every distinct X-ray flare, while the opposite is not always true (peaks in the IR emission may not be coincident with an X-ray flare). Characterizing the behavior of these simultaneous X-ray/IR events and measuring any time lag between them can constrain models of Sgr A* ʼs accretion flow and the flare emission mechanism. Using 100+ hours of data from a coordinated campaign between the Spitzer Space Telescope and the Chandra X-ray Observatory, we present results of the longest simultaneous IR and X-ray observations of Sgr A* taken to date. The cross-correlation between the IR and X-ray light curves in this unprecedented data set, which includes four modest X-ray/IR flares, indicates that flaring in the X-ray may lead the IR by approximately 10–20 min with 68% confidence. However, the 99.7% confidence interval on the time-lag also includes zero, i.e., the flaring remains statistically consistent with simultaneity. Long-duration and simultaneous multi-wavelength observations of additional bright flares will improve our ability to constrain the flare timing characteristics and emission mechanisms, and must be a priority for Galactic Center observing campaigns.

H. Boyce↗
NASA NTRS2011

Nanoflare Evidence from Analysis of the X-Ray Variability of an Active Region Observed with Hinode/XRT

The investigation of the heating mechanisms of the confined coronal plasma is still under intense debate. It is widely believed that the energy source for coronal heating is the magnetic energy stored in the solar corona. An unsolved problem is how this magnetic energy is converted into thermal energy of the confined coronal plasma. As Parker proposed in 1988 rapid pulses called nanoflares are among the best candidate mechanisms of magnetic energy release. Nowadays a challenging problem is to obtain evidence that such nanoflares are really at work. If small energy discharges (nanoflares) contribute in some way to coronal heating, they could be too small and frequent to be resolved as independent events. In this case, we would need to search for indirect evidence. The idea of this work is that, if the solar corona emission is sustained by repeated nanoflares, locally the X-ray emission may not be entirely constant but may show variations around the mean intensity. So the nanoflares may leave their signature on the light curves. Many authors (Shimizu & Tsuneta 1997; Vekstein & Katsukawa 2000; Katsukawa & Tsuneta 2001; Katsukawa 2003; Sakamoto et al. 2008) pointed out that a detailed analysis of intensity fluctuations of the coronal X-ray emission could give us information on these smallest flares. Following this hint we use this approach for the first time on Hinode data, searching, with statistical analysis, for small but systematic variability in noisy background light curves and their link to coronal heating models.

Terzo, S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

INDUCTIVE SYSTEM HEALTH MONITORING WITH STATISTICAL METRICS

Model-based reasoning is a powerful method for performing system monitoring and diagnosis. Building models for model-based reasoning is often a difficult and time consuming process. The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) software was developed to provide a technique to automatically produce health monitoring knowledge bases for systems that are either difficult to model (simulate) with a computer or which require computer models that are too complex to use for real time monitoring. IMS processes nominal data sets collected either directly from the system or from simulations to build a knowledge base that can be used to detect anomalous behavior in the system. Machine learning and data mining techniques are used to characterize typical system behavior by extracting general classes of nominal data from archived data sets. In particular, a clustering algorithm forms groups of nominal values for sets of related parameters. This establishes constraints on those parameter values that should hold during nominal operation. During monitoring, IMS provides a statistically weighted measure of the deviation of current system behavior from the established normal baseline. If the deviation increases beyond the expected level, an anomaly is suspected, prompting further investigation by an operator or automated system. IMS has shown potential to be an effective, low cost technique to produce system monitoring capability for a variety of applications. We describe the training and system health monitoring techniques of IMS. We also present the application of IMS to a data set from the Space Shuttle Columbia STS-107 flight. IMS was able to detect an anomaly in the launch telemetry shortly after a foam impact damaged Columbia's thermal protection system.

Iverson, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Coupling Carbon Oxidation and Surface Recession in Direct-Simulation Monte Carlo Code, SPARTA

Ablative thermal protection system (TPS) materials for spacecraft are composites that are often made out of carbon-based reinforcement and a polymeric matrix. They endure high-temperature oxidation and surface recession when re-entering Earth’s atmosphere. Ablation is the result of many coupled and competing thermal, mechanical, and chemical phenomena, and it is difficult to isolate the role of each on the overall degradation of the TPS. Here we develop an ablation model for material recession coupled explicitly to finite rate carbon oxidation in complex microstructures. In this work, Stochastic PArallel Rarified-gas Time-accurate Analyzer (SPARTA), a direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code, is modified to allow oxidation-driven ablation of implicitly defined carbon surfaces. In SPARTA, implicit surfaces are generated from the grid corner point values via a marching cubes algorithm, therefore creating a new set of surface elements every time ablation is performed. The finite-rate oxidation model developed by Gopalan et. al, was adapted to tally surface reactions and other surface data on a per-grid cell basis. The ablation functionality was also adjusted so once the reactions have occurred, the number of reactions leading to CO formation can be converted to corner point reduction values; therefore, carbon removal is directly proportional to surface recession. We also develop robust algorithms which handle the evolution of the flow cells and solid material regions, including split cells (flow cell divided in two by a solid surface). Finally, we demonstrate our implicit chemistry model for 2D and 3D geometries by producing reaction statistics and detailed visualization of oxidation-induced material recession at the microscale.

V Arias↗
NASA NTRS1986

Results from the solar maximum mission

The major results from SMM (Solar Max Mission) are presented as they relate to the understanding of the energy release and particle transportation processes that led to the high energy X-ray aspects of solar flares. Evidence is reviewed for a 152- to 158-day periodicity in various aspects of solar activity including the rate of occurrence of hard X-ray and gamma-ray flares. The statistical properties of over 7000 hard X-ray flares detected with the Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer are presented including the spectrum of peak rates and the distribution of the photo number spectrum. A flare classification scheme is used to divide flares into three different types. Type A flares have purely thermal, compact sources with very steep hard X-ray spectra. Type B flares are impulsive bursts which show double footpoints in hard X-rays, and soft-hard-soft spectral evolution. Type C flares have gradually varying hard X-ray and microwave fluxes from high altitudes and show hardening of the X-ray spectrum through the peak and on the decay. SSM data are presented for examples of Type B and Type C events. New results are presented showing coincident hard X rays, O V, and UV continuum observations in Type B events with a time resolution of 128 ms. The subsecond variations in the hard X-ray flux during 10% of the stronger events are discussed and the fastest observed variation in a time of 20 ms is presented. The properties of Type C flares are presented as determined primarily from the non-imaged hard X-ray and microwave spectral data. A model based on the association of Type C flares and coronal mass ejections is presented to explain many of the characteristics of these gradual flares.

Dennis, B. R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The mosaic structure of plasma bulk flows in the Earth's magnetotail

Moments of plasma distributions observed in the magnetotail vary with different time scales. In this paper we attempt to explain the observed variability on intermediate timescales of approximately 10-20 min that result from the simultaneous energization and spatial structuring of solar wind plasma in the distant magnetotail. These processes stimulate the formation of a system of spatially disjointed. highly accelerated filaments (beamlets) in the tail. We use the results from large-scale kinetic modeling of magnetotail formation from a plasma mantle source to calculate moments of ion distribution functions throughout the tail. Statistical restrictions related to the limited number of particles in our system naturally reduce the spatial resolution of our results, but we show that our model is valid on intermediate spatial scales Delta(x) x Delta(z) equal to approximately 1 R(sub E) x 1000 km. For these spatial scales the resulting pattern, which resembles a mosaic, appears to be quite variable. The complexity of the pattern is related to the spatial interference between beamlets accelerated at various locations within the distant tail which mirror in the strong near-Earth magnetic field. Global motion of the magnetotail results in the displacement of spacecraft with respect to this mosaic pattern and can produce variations in all of the moments (especially the x-component of the bulk velocity) on intermediate timescales. The results obtained enable us to view the magnetotail plasma as consisting of two different populations: a tailward-Earthward system of highly accelerated beamlets interfering with each other, and an energized quasithermal population which gradually builds as the Earth is approached. In the near-Earth tail, these populations merge into a hot quasi-isotropic ion population typical of the near-Earth plasma sheet. The transformation of plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL) beam energy into central plasma sheet (CPS) quasi-thermal energy occurs in the absence of collisions or noise. This paper also clarifies the relationship between the global scale where an MHD description might be appropriate and the lower intermediate scales where MHD fails and large-scale kinetic theory should be used.

Ashour-Abdalla, M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Parallelized Oxidation-Driven Surface Recession Framework in DSMC Code, SPARTA

Spacecrafts rely on ablative thermal protection systems (TPS) made of composites consisting of a carbon-based reinforcement and a polymeric matrix. These materials are designed to withstand high-temperature oxidation and surface recession during re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere. However, ablation occurs due to a complex interplay of thermal, mechanical, and chemical factors, making it challenging to determine the individual impact of each on the TPS's overall degradation. In this study, we have developed an ablation model that can leverage a finite rate carbon oxidation model to predict material recession and surface states more accurately. Stochastic PArallel Rarified-gas Time-accurate Analyzer (SPARTA), a direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code, is modified to allow oxidation-driven ablation of implicitly defined carbon surfaces. In SPARTA, implicit surfaces are generated from the grid corner point values via a marching cubes algorithm, therefore creating a new set of surface elements every time ablation is performed. The finite-rate oxidation model developed by Gopalan et. al can perform both gas-surface and pure-surface reactions and is now adapted to tally surface data on a per grid cell basis. The ablation functionality was also adjusted so once the reactions have occurred, the number of reactions leading to CO formation can be converted to corner point reduction values; therefore, carbon removal is directly proportional to surface recession. We also briefly discuss some unique challenges associated with parallelizing this dynamic surface state and geometry. Finally, we analyze the performance of this parallelized implicit chemistry model with simple 2D and 3D benchmark cases by producing surface state statistics, area changes over time, and visualization across a range of surface temperatures and processors with and without load-balancing.

DSMC↗
NASA NTRS1992

Indian Ocean analyses

The background and goals of Indian Ocean thermal sampling are discussed from the perspective of a national project which has research goals relevant to variation of climate in Australia. The critical areas of SST variation are identified. The first goal of thermal sampling at this stage is to develop a climatology of thermal structure in the areas and a description of the annual variation of major currents. The sampling strategy is reviewed. Dense XBT sampling is required to achieve accurate, monthly maps of isotherm-depth because of the high level of noise in the measurements caused by aliasing of small scale variation. In the Indian Ocean ship routes dictate where adequate sampling can be achieved. An efficient sampling rate on available routes is determined based on objective analysis. The statistical structure required for objective analysis is described and compared at 95 locations in the tropical Pacific and 107 in the tropical Indian Oceans. XBT data management and quality control methods at CSIRO are reviewed. Results on the mean and annual variation of temperature and baroclinic structure in the South Equatorial Current and Pacific/Indian Ocean Throughflow are presented for the region between northwest Australia and Java-Timor. The mean relative geostrophic transport (0/400 db) of Throughflow is approximately 5 x 106 m3/sec. A nearly equal volume transport is associated with the reference velocity at 400 db. The Throughflow feeds the South Equatorial Current, which has maximum westward flow in August/September, at the end of the southeasterly Monsoon season. A strong semiannual oscillation in the South Java Current is documented. The results are in good agreement with the Semtner and Chervin (1988) ocean general circulation model. The talk concludes with comments on data inadequacies (insufficient coverage, timeliness) particular to the Indian Ocean and suggestions on the future role that can be played by Data Centers, particularly with regard to quality control of data as research bodies are replaced by operational bodies in the Global Ocean Observing System.

Meyers, Gary↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Statistical Mechanics of Solar Wind Hydroxylation at the Moon, Within Lunar Magnetic Anomalies, and at Phobos

We present a new formalism to describe the outgassing of hydrogen initially implanted by the solar wind protons into exposed soils on airless bodies. The formalism applies a statistical mechanics approach similar to that applied recently to molecular adsorption onto activated surfaces. The key element enabling this formalism is the recognition that the interatomic potential between the implanted H and regolith-residing oxides is not of singular value but possess a distribution of trapped energy values at a given temperature, F(U,T). All subsequent derivations of the outward diffusion and H retention rely on the specific properties of this distribution. We find that solar wind hydrogen can be retained if there are sites in the implantation layer with activation energy values exceeding 0.5eV. We especially examine the dependence of H retention applying characteristic energy values found previously for irradiated silica and mature lunar samples. We also apply the formalism to two cases that differ from the typical solar wind implantation at the Moon. First, we test for a case of implantation in magnetic anomaly regions where significantly lower-energy ions of solar wind origin are expected to be incident with the surface. In magnetic anomalies, H retention is found to be reduced due to the reduced ion flux and shallower depth of implantation. Second, we also apply the model to Phobos where the surface temperature range is not as extreme as the Moon. We find the H atom retention in this second case is higher than the lunar case due to the reduced thermal extremes (that reduces outgassing).

Solar Wind↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exoplanet Yield Sensitivity for the Hybrid Lyot Coronagraph from end-to-end modeling for LUVOIR-A

NASA's future direct imaging flagship mission will require telescope mirror segmentation to survey a statistically significant population of nearby stellar systems by increasing aperture size beyond that achieved by traditional space-borne monolithic apertures thus far. Segmentation is a path for the size expansion, but it entails a challenge due to the introduction of temporal pupil discontinuities in terms of both phase and amplitude. Modeling of the integrated performance of the coronagraph with the expected dynamical profile of the telescope is an important step toward realistic estimates of the mission's science yields. We present results of a study using the hybrid Lyot coronagraph with a 15-m on-axis, segmented optical telescope assembly (OTA), akin to that of the Large UV / Optical /Infrared (LUVOIR) mission. We have developed a high-fidelity, end-to-end model as part of the Segmented Coronagraph Design and Analysis (SCDA) study that includes diffractive optical propagations at the 1e-10 contrast level across the optical train including the OTA and intermediate re-imaging optics inside the coronagraph instrument. We perform a sensitivity analysis to assess the contrast sensitivity to wavefront perturbations for a set of key telescope terms including segment-level low-order and mid-spatial frequency aberrations and evaluate expected exoplanet yields obtained in the presence of these sets of aberrations. Industry-provided segment-level wavefront aberration datasets involving the following mechanisms are input to the end-to-end model: (1) thermal gradients and accelerations, and (2) telescope dynamics including line-of-sight and segment jitter. Dynamically averaged PSFs in the presence of aberrations are fed into AYO (Altruistic Yield Optimization), a mission design reference simulator, that then assesses the scientific yield sensitivities.

high-contrast imaging↗
NASA NTRS2000

Constraints on Cosmological Parameters From The Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect and Thermal Bremsstrahlung

We discuss the possibility of constraining cosmological parameters using the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect and thermal bremsstrahlung caused by intra-cluster gas in clusters of galaxies. The new generation of X-ray satellites and ground based interferometers dedicated to SZ observations will enable one to reduce uncertainties in these measurements, and thus make this method potentially quite promising in the near future. The importance of this method is that, unlike most other methods, it is based on physical principles, no 'standard candles' or 'rulers' needed. We estimate the accuracy achievable in the determination of the matter density, OMEGA(sub m), the cosmological constant, OMEGA(sub LAMBDA), and the Hubble constant, h, using the redshift dependence of the angular diameter distance derived from observations in the near future. We demonstrate that constraints from the angular diameter distance are orthogonal to those from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) fluctuations in the parameter space defined by OMEGA(sub m), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA), and h. Assuming a statistical error of five percent in the angular diameter distance for each cluster in a sample of five hundred clusters, we show that the redshift dependence of the angular diameter distance combined with constraints from CMB fluctuations can put stringent constraints on OMEGA(sub m) (+/- 0.03), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) (+/- 0.03) and h (+/- 0.03, 3(sigma) errors). We also show that, with as few as 50 clusters between redshifts 0.01 and 1.5 with an assumed 10% statistical error in the angular diameter distance determination, one can distinguish between models with zero cosmological constant and spatially flat models with a cosmological constant with high confidence level (independently from the supernova results) and put meaningful constraints on OMEGA(sub m) (+/- 0.01), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) (+/- 0.01) and h (+/- 0.01, 3(sigma) errors). With the expected advances in observational technology, we will be limited by systematic errors. We discuss the sources of systematic errors and how they can be reduced.

Molnar, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Influence of Coronal Abundance Variations

The PI of this project was Jeff Scargle of NASA/Ames. Co-I's were Alma Connors of Eureka Scientific/Wellesley, and myself. Part of the work was subcontracted to Eureka Scientific via SAO, with Vinay Kashyap as PI. This project was originally assigned grant number NCC2-1206, and was later changed to NCC2-1350 for administrative reasons. The goal of the project was to obtain, derive, and develop statistical and data analysis tools that would be of use in the analyses of high-resolution, high-sensitivity data that are becoming available with new instruments. This is envisioned as a cross-disciplinary effort with a number of "collaborators" including some at SA0 (Aneta Siemiginowska, Peter Freeman) and at the Harvard Statistics department (David van Dyk, Rostislav Protassov, Xiao-li Meng, Epaminondas Sourlas, et al). We have developed a new tool to reliably measure the metallicities of thermal plasma. It is unfeasible to obtain high-resolution grating spectra for most stars, and one must make the best possible determination based on lower-resolution, CCD-type spectra. It has been noticed that most analyses of such spectra have resulted in measured metallicities that were significantly lower than when compared with analyses of high- resolution grating data where available (see, e.g., Brickhouse et al., 2000, ApJ 530,387). Such results have led to the proposal of the existence of so-called Metal Abundance Deficient, or "MAD" stars (e.g., Drake, J.J., 1996, Cool Stars 9, ASP Conf.Ser. 109, 203). We however find that much of these analyses may be systematically underestimating the metallicities, and using a newly developed method to correctly treat the low-counts regime at the high-energy tail of the stellar spectra (van Dyk et al. 2001, ApJ 548,224), have found that the metallicities of these stars are generally comparable to their photospheric values. The results were reported at the AAS (Sourlas, Yu, van Dyk, Kashyap, and Drake, 2000, BAAS 196, v32, #54.02), and at the conference on Statistical Challenges in Modem Astronomy (Sourlas, van Dyk, Kashyap, Drake, and Pease, 2003, SCMA 111, Eds. E.D.Feigelson, G.J.Babu, New York:Springer, p489-490). We also described the limitations of one of the most egregiously misused and misapplied statistical tests in astrophysical literature, the F-test for verifying model components (Protassov, van Dyk, Connors, Kashyap, and Siemiginowska, 2002, ApJ, 571,545). Indeed, a search through the ApJ archives turned up 170 papers in the 5 previous years that used the F-test explicitly in some form or the other, and with the vast majority of them not using it correctly! Indeed, looking at just 4 issues of the ApJ in 2001, we found 13 instances of its use, of which nine were demonstrably incorrect. Clearly, it is difficult to understate the importance of this issue. We also worked on speeding up Bayes Blocks and Sparse Bayes Blocks algorithms to make them more tractable for large searches. We also supported staistics students and postdocs in both explicit physics- model-based (spectra with tens of thousands of atomic lines) and "model-free" -- i.e. non-parametric or semi-parametric -- algorithms. Work on using more of the latter is just beginning; while using multi-scale methods for Poisson imaging has come to hition. In fact, "An Image Restoration Technique with Error Estimates", by D. Esch, A. Connors, M. Karovska, and D. van Dyk, was published by ApJ (Esch et a1.2004, ApJ, 610, 1213). The code has been delivered to M. Karovska for CXC; and is available for beta-testing upon request. The other large project we worked on was on the self-consistent modeling of logN-logs curves in the Poisson limit. logN-logs curves are a fundamental tool in the study of source populations, luminosity functions, and cosmological parameters. However, their determination is hampered by statistical effects such as the Eddington bias, incompleteness due to detection efficiency, faint source flux fluctuations, etc. We have develed a new and powerful method using the full Poisson machinery that allows us to model the logN-logs distribution of X-ray sources in a self-consistent manner. Because we properly account for all the above statistical effects, our modeling is valid over the full range of the data, and not just for strong sources, as is normally done. Using a Bayesian approach and modeling the fluxes with known functional forms such as simple or broken power-laws, and conditioning the expected photon counts on the fluxes, the background contamination, effective area, detector vignetting, and detection probability, we can delve deeply into the low counts regime and extend the usefulness of medium sensitivity surveys such as ChAMP by orders of magnitude. The built-in flexibility of the algorithm also allows a simultaneous analysis of multiple datasets. We have applied this analysis to a set a Chandra observations (Sourlas, Kashyap, Zezas, van Dyk, 2004, HEAD #8, #16.32)

Scargle, Jeffrey D.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Origin of the X-Ray and Ultraviolet Emission in NGC 7469

We present a spectral analysis of a approx 30 day, near-continuous observation of the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 7469 with RXTE. Daily integrations show strong spectral changes during the observation. Our main result is that we find the X-ray spectral index to be correlated with the UV flux. Furthermore, the broadband X-ray photon flux is also correlated with the UV continuum. These correlations point toward a model in which the X-rays originate via thermal Comptonization of UV seed photons. Furthermore, the UV is also correlated with the extrapolation of the X-ray power law into the soft X-ray/EUV region. Our data analysis therefore reopens the possibility that the UV photons and their variability arise from reprocessing, as long as the primary source of heating is photoelectric absorption in the re-processor, rather than Compton down-scattering. A coherent picture of the X-ray/UV variability can therefore be constructed whereby absorption and reprocessing of EUV/soft X-rays in a standard accretion disk produce a variable seed photon distribution, which is in turn up-scattered into the X-ray band. We also find a significant correlation between the 2-10 keV flux and the 6.4 keV iron K-alpha line, suggesting that at least some portion of the line originates within approx. 1 light day of the X-ray continuum source. Neither the power-law photon index nor the Compton reflection component are correlated with the 2-10 keV flux. The latter is not correlated with the iron K-alpha line flux either. We do find an apparent correlation between the X-ray spectral index and the strength of the Compton reflection component. In an Appendix we show, however, that this can be produced by a combination of statistical and systematic errors. We conclude that the apparent variations in the Compton reflection component may be an artifact of these effects.

Nandra, K.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Comparison of Surface Ground Temperature from Satellite Observations and the Off-Line Land Surface GEOS Assimilation System

The surface ground temperature (Tg) is an important meteorological variable, because it represents an integrated thermal state of the land surface determined by a complex surface energy budget. Furthermore, Tg affects both the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. Through these fluxes. the surface budget is coupled with the atmosphere above. Accurate Tg data are useful for estimating the surface radiation budget and fluxes, as well as soil moisture. Tg is not included in conventional synoptical weather station reports. Currently, satellites provide Tg estimates globally. It is necessary to carefully consider appropriate methods of using these satellite data in a data assimilation system. Recently, an Off-line Land surface GEOS Assimilation (OLGA) system was implemented at the Data Assimilation Office at NASA-GSFC. One of the goals of OLGA is to assimilate satellite-derived Tg data. Prior to the Tg assimilation, a thorough investigation of satellite- and model-derived Tg, including error estimates, is required. In this study we examine the Tg from the n Project (ISCCP DI) data and the OLGA simulations. The ISCCP data used here are 3-hourly DI data (2.5x2.5 degree resolution) for 1992 summer months (June, July, and August) and winter months (January and February). The model Tg for the same periods were generated by OLGA. The forcing data for this OLGA 1992 simulation were generated from the GEOS-1 Data Assimilation System (DAS) at Data Assimilation Office NASA-GSFC. We examine the discrepancies between ISCCP and OLGA Tg with a focus on its spatial and temporal characteristics, particularly on the diurnal cycle. The error statistics in both data sets, including bias, will be estimated. The impact of surface properties, including vegetation cover and type, topography, etc, on the discrepancies will be addressed.

Yang, R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Global Geospace Science (GGS)/POLAR Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiments (TIDE) Co-Investigator Program: Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MO/DA)

We have pursued several investigations using the Polar/TIDE data set. The first was a comparison of TIDE high-altitude observations with similar ion flux signatures in the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) magnetospheric plasma analyzer (MPA) data. There are several geosynchronously orbiting satellites with LANL MPA instruments onboard. When the satellite is immersed in fresh plasma sheet electrons, the spacecraft voltage drops to several hundred volts negative, and cold ions are accelerated in to the detector. In the LANL MPA spectrograms, the accelerated cold ions appear as a bright, narrow line, following the voltage of the spacecraft. This "ion line" is seen regularly on the nightside, but has not received much attention. The Polar TIDE observations indicated a ubiquitous "lobal wind" in the near-- magnetotail, a field-aligned stream of approx. 100 eV ions flowing out of both polar ionospheres. The interesting result of this research is that the MPA ion line is also peaked in the field-aligned direction, even though the potential well should be uniform in all directions. It is believed that this is evidence that the lobal winds not only populate the high-latitude lobes, but fill the lobes all the way in to the near-Earth plasma sheet (the location of geosynchronous orbit). This activity developed into a full-scale survey of the lobal wind observations in the TIDE database. The universality of these observations with respect to local time and solar wind conditions implies that the ionospheric outflow is supplying the near-Earth plasma sheet at all times, regardless of magnetic activity. We have conducted a statistical study of the characteristics of the lobal wind in these two data sets FIDE and LANL MPA), finding much similarity between them. Using these characteristics as input conditions to our inner magnetosphere ion transport model, we have conducted simulations of the flow of these particles inside of geosynchronous orbit to show the impact these particles will have on the near-Earth space environment. As the study has progressed, these results have been presented several times to the TIDE team during teleconferences. It is planned to present this survey at the GEM 2004 Summer Workshop, and hopefully at additional conferences in the near future. We are presently writing a paper on the lobal wind occurrence statistics, which should be submitted in April or May to the Journal of Geophysical Research for publication. An undergraduate student at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Will Maddox, working at NASA MSFC with Dr. Paul Craven, is presently creating a database of the values TIDE moments for the lobal wind (under Dr. Liemohn's guidance), and this will be the focus of a follow-on paper.

Nagy, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS1997

Design Protocols and Analytical Strategies that Incorporate Structural Reliability Models

Ceramic matrix composites (CMC) and intermetallic materials (e.g., single crystal nickel aluminide) are high performance materials that exhibit attractive mechanical, thermal, and chemical properties. These materials are critically important in advancing certain performance aspects of gas turbine engines. From an aerospace engineers perspective the new generation of ceramic composites and intermetallics offers a significant potential for raising the thrust/weight ratio and reducing NO(sub x) emissions of gas turbine engines. These aspects have increased interest in utilizing these materials in the hot sections of turbine engines. However, as these materials evolve and their performance characteristics improve a persistent need exists for state-of-the-art analytical methods that predict the response of components fabricated from CMC and intermetallic material systems. This need provided the motivation for the technology developed under this research effort. Continuous ceramic fiber composites exhibit an increase in work of fracture, which allows for 'graceful' rather than catastrophic failure. When loaded in the fiber direction these composites retain substantial strength capacity beyond the initiation of transverse matrix cracking despite the fact that neither of its constituents would exhibit such behavior if tested alone. As additional load is applied beyond first matrix cracking, the matrix tends to break in a series of cracks bridged by the ceramic fibers. Any additional load is born increasingly by the fibers until the ultimate strength of the composite is reached. Thus modeling efforts supported under this research effort have focused on predicting this sort of behavior. For single crystal intermetallics the issues that motivated the technology development involved questions relating to material behavior and component design. Thus the research effort supported by this grant had to determine the statistical nature and source of fracture in a high strength, NiAl single crystal turbine blade material; map a simplistic future strength envelope of the material; develop a statistically based reliability computer algorithm; verify the reliability model and computer algorithm-, and model stator vanes for rig tests. Thus establishing design protocols that enable the engineer to analyze and predict the mechanical behavior of ceramic composites and intermetallics would mitigate the prototype (trial and error) approach currently used by the engineering community. The primary objective of the research effort supported by this short term grant is the continued creation of enabling technologies for the macro-analysis of components fabricated from ceramic composites and intermetallic material systems. The creation of enabling technologies aids in shortening the product development cycle of components fabricated from the new high technology materials.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗