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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14

Replace Human Intelligence with Fast and Smart Geometric Reasoning and Graph Neural Network to Accelerate Next Gen ModSim Workflows

We present an agent-guided approach to CAD geometry decomposition that automates hex/hybrid meshing with graph neural networks (GNNs) to accelerate next-generation ModSim workflows. Our end-to-end pipeline (i) reduces 3D boundary-representation (B-Rep) models to a 2D chordal axis skeleton (CAT) and then to a 1D bipartite graph of surface and curve nodes, (ii) assigns per node labels as Cubit® WebCut actions, (iii) trains a multi-action GNN under supervised learning, and (iv) predicts five surface-node and three curve-node actions on out-of-distribution test geometries. Each graph node carries geometric, topological, and meshing attributes drawn from the B-Rep “skin” and CAT “skeleton,” with two-way mappings across 3D↔2D↔1D representations to maintain traceability back to 3D CAD. The supervised learning model exhibits stable convergence of the binary cross-entropy loss and achieves 98.7% accuracy on unseen lattice models. To operationalize decision-making, we rank predicted commands by geometric significance and prototyped the agent-guided workflow through the Cubit® Meshing PowerTool GUI. As a stretch goal, we explore reinforcement learning (RL) to reduce or remove label requirements and to learn policies for action sequences that maximize total reward (e.g., size of hex-meshable regions and resulting hex mesh quality). When all-hex meshing is not feasible, the agent assists in producing hybrid meshes—prioritizing hex in critical regions and transitioning to tetrahedral elements (tets) elsewhere—maintaining fidelity while ensuring robustness. The overarching objective is to replace manual, heuristics-based decomposition with data-driven, reproducible automation, cutting meshing turnaround time by orders of magnitude. We anticipate direct impact on simulation workflows through intelligent, scalable decomposition of complex CAD models into hex-meshable subdomains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Closing the Loop between In Situ Stress Complexity and EGS Fracture Complexity

We present an agent-guided approach to CAD geometry decomposition that automates hex/hybrid meshing with graph neural networks (GNNs) to accelerate next-generation ModSim workflows. Our end-to-end pipeline (i) reduces 3D boundary-representation (B-Rep) models to a 2D chordal axis skeleton (CAT) and then to a 1D bipartite graph of surface and curve nodes, (ii) assigns per node labels as Cubit® WebCut actions, (iii) trains a multi-action GNN under supervised learning, and (iv) predicts five surface-node and three curve-node actions on out-of-distribution test geometries. Each graph node carries geometric, topological, and meshing attributes drawn from the B-Rep “skin” and CAT “skeleton,” with two-way mappings across 3D↔2D↔1D representations to maintain traceability back to 3D CAD. The supervised learning model exhibits stable convergence of the binary cross-entropy loss and achieves 98.7% accuracy on unseen lattice models. To operationalize decision-making, we rank predicted commands by geometric significance and prototyped the agent-guided workflow through the Cubit® Meshing PowerTool GUI. As a stretch goal, we explore reinforcement learning (RL) to reduce or remove label requirements and to learn policies for action sequences that maximize total reward (e.g., size of hex-meshable regions and resulting hex mesh quality). When all-hex meshing is not feasible, the agent assists in producing hybrid meshes—prioritizing hex in critical regions and transitioning to tetrahedral elements (tets) elsewhere—maintaining fidelity while ensuring robustness. The overarching objective is to replace manual, heuristics-based decomposition with data-driven, reproducible automation, cutting meshing turnaround time by orders of magnitude. We anticipate direct impact on simulation workflows through intelligent, scalable decomposition of complex CAD models into hex-meshable subdomains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Installation and Demonstration of CNC Machining for Mechanical Test Specimens in the IFEL Hot Cell

This report documents the installation and demonstration of computer numerical control (CNC) machining capabilities in the Irradiated Fuels Examination Laboratory hot cell facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). A modified Tormach PCNC 440 mill was integrated into the hot cell with custom fixturing, fines management, and manipulator-compatible interfaces to enable the fabrication of axial tension test (ATT) and ring tension test (RTT) specimens from irradiated cladding. The first irradiated specimens machined included ATT and RTT geometries harvested from the high-burnup 6XV fuel rod. Dimensional inspections confirmed that machined specimens met the ±0.025 mm tolerance envelope established in prior development; deviations were consistent with expected measurement scatter and inherent specimen variability, such as wall thickness gradients and eccentricity. Comparisons with out-of-cell metrology confirmed that in-cell machining performance aligns with baseline scatter observed under ideal conditions. This work establishes reproducible, end-to-end specimen preparation at ORNL, directly supporting the US Department of Energy’s Accident-Tolerant Fuel program by enabling reliable, traceable mechanical testing of irradiated cladding.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Characterization of Neutron Emission Rates of Commercial 252 Cf Sources

Accurate knowledge of 252 Cf neutron emission rates is critical for modeling and fast-neutron experiments, yet commercial sources are often supplied without traceable calibration or uncertainty estimates. This report describes a method to characterize 252 Cf sources using a pulse-shape-discrimination (PSD) scintillator. The scintillator was efficiency-calibrated against a time-tagged 252 Cf fission chamber manufactured at ORNL over 40 years ago. Isotopic evolution of the calibration source was modeled using Bateman equations to account for changes in the effective average neutrons per fission at the time of measurement. The calibrated scintillator was then used to measure absolute emission rates of several commercial 252 Cf sources, revealing deviations of up to 12% from nominal manufacturer values. This methodology provides a practical approach for establishing uncertainty-quantified 252 Cf neutron emission rates, improving fidelity in simulations and supporting the accurate interpretation of measurements.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

Virtual Inspection of Advanced Manufacturing via Process-Scale Digital Twins (Abbreviated Report)

Inspection and certification comprise the most significant bottlenecks in advanced manufacturing for NNSA applications, often requiring far more time and resources than the fabrication of the parts themselves. Traditional methods, such as manual review and X-ray computed tomography, are not only slow and costly, but also struggle to provide a clear connection between manufacturing instructions and the final performance of critical components. This gap limits both the agility and assurance needed to support the modernization and safety of the United States nuclear stockpile. In response, our Strategic Initiative established a digital twin framework that integrates realtime process monitoring, automated data analysis, and immersive virtual reality collaboration into a unified inspection pipeline. By leveraging data from sensors, machine instructions, and imaging, we created high-fidelity virtual models of manufactured parts that could be rapidly analyzed and certified. This approach was first demonstrated with Direct Ink Write, and then extended to other manufacturing settings, including conventional (or “subtractive”) manufacturing and to predict the end of life performance of parts per the aging and lifetimes programs. The result is a transformational capability: inspection times have been reduced by a factor of 120,000 without loss of accuracy and while simultaneously improving traceability and confidence in part quality. This framework not only streamlines certification for critical applications, but also positions the national security enterprise to respond more flexibly to emerging challenges, supporting agile manufacturing and digital engineering practices across a broad range of mission-relevant domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) Core Project Final Report: Fiscal Years 2022-2024

The Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) is a world-leading solar calibration and measurement facility and maintains and disseminates the World Radiation Reference (essentially the W/m2) for the United States that is essential for traceable and accurate measurements of solar radiation at all solar generation facilities. SRRL operates two calibration facilities that meet International Standards Organization-17025 (ISO-17025) standards and provide unique high-quality calibrations to NREL and other U.S. Department of Energy laboratories. The Baseline Measurement System (BMS) at SRRL provides a high-quality record of solar irradiance and surface meteorological conditions. SRRL capabilities are used to develop (1) improved methods for the calibration of solar radiometers; (2) new standards through the ISO, the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), and the American Standards for Testing of Materials (ASTM) International; (c) solar radiation and meteorological models; and (d) advanced instrumentation and methods for operating solar measurement stations. The SRRL datasets are also critical for the validation of new models and datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). The research and development of solar radiation measurement systems and resource modeling techniques are essential for advancing the scientific basis for producing reliable resource data. Specifically, the spatial, temporal, and spectral (wavelength dependency) characteristics of the solar resource are required in several different time frames for various project phases.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

ARM Cloud and Precipitation Measurements and Science Group (CPMSG) 2024 Workshop Report

The mission of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility is to improve the understanding and representation of cloud and aerosol processes and their interaction with the Earth's surface in Earth system models (ESMs) by providing comprehensive field observations and supporting advanced data analytics. The ARM Cloud and Precipitation Measurements and Science Group (CPMSG) was chartered in March 2019 to help improve the performance and scientific impact of ARM measurements of clouds and precipitation. The group aims to identify and address gaps in measurement capabilities, maximize the scientific impact of ARM data, and effectively serve the scientific community. To achieve these goals, the group includes experts in cloud and precipitation science, as well as representatives from ARM infrastructure, including instrument mentors, engineers, data quality officers, and data product translators. Prior to CPMSG, early discussions on cloud and precipitation measurements primarily focused on improving radar systems, but have since evolved to include a broader scope involving radiometers and other instruments. Since its formation, the CPMSG has gathered feedback using science traceability matrices. CPMSG aims to keep these as living documents to show the measurement needs, scientific drivers, roadblocks, maturity of measurements and retrievals, and pathways to model improvements. The group meets quarterly to discuss and prioritize measurement and operational improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing a Framework for Valuation of Grid Services

The electric system is rapidly evolving and growing, raising new questions about how to define and value grid services delivered by a diverse set of resources, including customer-owned assets. This report advances a service–parameter–value framework that links what a grid service does to why it matters, and how its benefits are evidenced. We build upon prior efforts (Bender et al. 2021) and extend them to include value categories (reliability, resilience, cost & access, and security) with primary and secondary tiers, service-specific value streams that explain how benefits materialize, and metrics that make valuation traceable and comparable. We apply the framework to the six core grid services defined in (Kolln et al. 2023): Frequency Response, Regulation, Reserves, Energy, Voltage Management, and Blackstart and demonstrate it on three use cases to highlight the adaptability of these value streams. Further, we outline how the framework integrates with existing tools such as asset optimization, hosting capacity and cost-benefit analysis, and propose a path to portable qualifications and consistent stacking rules for use in tariffs and filings. Finally, we identify future pathways for research and application research needs to support standardization and decision-ready comparisons across services, assets, and architectures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Preliminary Plan to Inform Testing of a Heat Exchanger Test Article

This report presents a preliminary plan to guide the qualification testing of advanced heat exchanger (HX) components for nuclear-to-industrial heat transfer applications. The objective is to establish a defensible, physics-based methodology that integrates computational modeling, targeted experimentation, and in-service inspection considerations to demonstrate component performance and reliability under representative reactor conditions. The analysis identifies Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) systems as reference configurations in terms of temperature, pressure, and chemical environment. Within these operating envelopes, dominant degradation mechanisms— including creep–fatigue interaction, flow-induced vibration, corrosion, and diffusion-bond deterioration—were evaluated to define test requirements. A comprehensive computationalexperimental framework is proposed to support life prediction and qualification activities. The framework couples high-fidelity structural-mechanics, thermal-hydraulic, and fluid-structure interaction models with accelerated degradation testing to produce a traceable linkage between microstructural evolution, mechanical performance, and remaining useful life (RUL). The approach adheres to established Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) standards (ASME V&V 10/20; NUREG-2152) and incorporates a digital-twin architecture for continuous model refinement through data assimilation. The plan further outlines testing methodologies, including pre-test analyses, test-loop design parameters, and sensor placement strategies that maximize information yield while maintaining mechanistic fidelity. Complementary sections describe in-service inspection (ISI), on-line monitoring (OLM), and structural-health-monitoring (SHM) techniques applicable to compact HX geometries typical of advanced reactors. Collectively, these activities establish the technical foundation for demonstrating 40-60-year equivalent service life of advanced heat exchangers in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor and Integrated Energy Systems programs. The forthcoming phase will execute the defined pre-test analyses, initiate hardware fabrication, and implement the integrated testing campaign to validate the proposed qualification methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of AI-Enabled Digital Documented Safety Analysis: A Case Study

Safety basis documentation development and review under U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) authorization have emerged as critical constraint throttling deployment of advanced nuclear reactors, with traditional processes demanding extraordinary resource investment that delays the delivery of these technologies. Traditional Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) processes rely on static documents with limited traceability [U.S. DOE]. The regulatory review and engagement processes are similarly constrained, often requiring significant effort and extensive manual verification. The scale of this challenge is exemplified by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) review of the NuScale application, which required over 250,000 staff hours and the evaluation of approximately two million pages of documentation [Bergman 2021]. The volume and complexity of information within nuclear licensing applications or authorization reviews demands innovative approaches to document generation and data management.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Comparative Assessment of Battery Carbon Footprint Calculation Frameworks to Support U.S. Battery Manufacturing

A “battery passport” is a digital record that provides comprehensive information about an individual battery across its life cycle. This concept has been introduced by Battery Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 [1], which applies to batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), industrial batteries with a capacities greater than 2 kWh, and batteries for light means of transport (LMT) greater than 2kWh sold in the European Union (EU) market – impacting manufacturers and exporters across multiple jurisdictions globally. Among its reporting mandates, a key feature of battery passports is the requirement for a carbon footprint (CF) calculation methodology supported by enhanced data granularity to enable traceable and verifiable CF results. While no other jurisdictions have yet adopted formal battery passport requirements like the EU’s, some are developing CF calculation methods to comply with the EU Battery Regulation or are creating CF-related regulations that could evolve in a similar direction, reflecting the growing importance of battery CF guidelines for manufacturers seeking to remain competitive in global markets.

Zhang, Jingyi [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), ↗

Rock-Sourced Nitrogen in Semi-Arid, Shale-Derived California Soils

Models suggest that rock-derived nitrogen (N) inputs are of global importance to ecosystem N budgets; however, field studies demonstrating the significance of rock N inputs are rare. We examined rock-derived N fluxes in soils derived from sedimentary rocks along a catena formed under a semi-arid climate. Our measurements demonstrate that there are distinct and traceable pools of N in the soil and bedrock and that the fraction of rock-derived N declines downslope along the catena. We used geochemical mass balance weathering flux measurements to estimate a rock-derived N flux of 0.145 to 0.896 kg ha -1 yr -1 at the ridgecrest. We also developed independent N flux estimates using a 15 N-based isotope mixing model. While geochemical mass-balance-based estimates fell within the 95% confidence range derived from the isotope mixing model (-1.1 to 44.3 kg ha -1 yr -1 ), this range was large due to uncertainty in values for atmospheric 15 N deposition. Along the catena, N isotopes suggest a diminishing effect of rock-derived N downslope. Overall, we found that despite relatively large N pools within the saprolite and bedrock, slow chemical weathering and landscape denudation limit the influence of rock-derived N, letting atmospheric N deposition (7.1 kg ha -1 yr -1 ) and N fixation (0.9-3.1 kg ha -1 yr -1 ) dominate N inputs to this grassland ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 Requires the Bidirectional Hydrogenase to Metabolize Glucose and Arginine Under Oxic Conditions

The cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp.PCC 6803 possesses a bidirectional NiFe-hydrogenase, HoxEFUYH. It functions to produce hydrogen under dark, fermentative conditions and photoproduces hydrogen when dark-adapted cells are illuminated. Unexpectedly, we found that the deletion of the large subunit of the hydrogenase (HoxH) in Synechocystis leads to an inability to grow on arginine and glucose under continuous light in the presence of oxygen. This is surprising, as the hydrogenase is an oxygen-sensitive enzyme. In wild-type (WT) cells, thylakoid membranes largely disappeared, cyanophycin accumulated, and the plastoquinone (PQ) pool was highly reduced, whereas ΔhoxH cells entered a dormant-like state and neither consumed glucose nor arginine at comparable rates to the WT. Hydrogen production was not traceable in the WT under these conditions. We tested and could show that the hydrogenase does not work as an oxidase on arginine and glucose but has an impact on the redox states of photosynthetic complexes in the presence of oxygen. It acts as an electron valve as an immediate response to the supply of arginine and glucose but supports the input of electrons from arginine and glucose oxidation into the photosynthetic electron chain in the long run, possibly via the NDH-1 complex. Despite the data presented in this study, the latter scenario requires further proof. The exact role of the hydrogenase in the presence of arginine and glucose remains unresolved. In addition, a unique feature of the hydrogenase is its ability to shift electrons between NAD(H), NADP(H), ferredoxin, and flavodoxin, which was recently shown in vitro and might be required for fine-tuning. Taken together, our data show that Synechocystis> depends on the hydrogenase to metabolize organic carbon and nitrogen in the presence of oxygen, which might be an explanation for its prevalence in aerobic cyanobacteria.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

North America’s Potential for an Environmentally Sustainable Nickel, Manganese, and Cobalt Battery Value Chain

The Detroit Big Three General Motors (GMs), Ford, and Stellantis predict that electric vehicle (EV) sales will comprise 40–50% of the annual vehicle sales by 2030. Among the key components of LIBs, the LiNixMnyCo1−x−yO2 cathode, which comprises nickel, manganese, and cobalt (NMC) in various stoichiometric ratios, is widely used in EV batteries. This review reveals NMC cathodes from laboratory research. Furthermore, this study examines the environmental effect of NMC cathode production for EV batteries (including coating technologies), encompassing aspects such as energy consumption, water usage, and air emissions. Although gaps persist in NMC cathode environmental assessments (NMC111, NMC532, NMC622, and NMC811), limited life cycle assessments “(LCA)” have been conducted. Most available data originate from Asia (primarily China), accounting for 85% of the production of EV LIB cathode materials. The concept of battery passports for data collection on LIB components has been proposed to facilitate material traceability as a system for ensuring a sustainable supply chain for critical minerals. The automotive industry’s shift to electrification necessitates a sustainable supply chain from mine to vehicle end-of-life. As the critical mineral supply moves from Asia to North America, environmentally friendly industrial methods must be studied to provide this supply chain direction.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Development of a High Min-Entropy Quantum Random Number Generator Based on Amplified Spontaneous Emission

We present the theory, architecture, and performance characteristics of a quantum random number generator (QRNG) which operates in a PCI express form factor-compatible plug-and-play design. The QRNG relies on a thermal light source (in this case, amplified spontaneous emission), which exhibits photon bunching according to the Bose–Einstein (BE) statistics. We demonstrate that 98.7% of the unprocessed random bit stream min-entropy is traceable to the BE (quantum) signal. The classical component is then removed using a non-reuse shift-XOR protocol, and the final random numbers are generated at a 200 Mbps rate and shown to pass the statistical randomness test suites FIPS 140-2, Alphabit, SmallCrush, DIEHARD, and Rabbit of the TestU01 library.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Use of Tracer Elements for Estimating Community Exposure to Marcellus Shale Development Operations

Since 2009, unconventional natural gas development (UNGD) has significantly increased in Appalachia’s Marcellus Shale formation. Elevations of fine particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), have been documented in areas surrounding drilling operations during well stimulation. Furthermore, many communities are experiencing increased industrial activities and probable UNGD air pollutant exposures. Recent studies have associated UNGD emissions with health effects based on distances from well pads. In this study, PM2.5 filter samples were collected on an active gas well pad in Morgantown, West Virginia, and three locations downwind during hydraulic stimulation. Fine particulate samples were analyzed for major and trace elements. An experimental source identification model was developed to determine which elements appeared to be traceable downwind of the UNGD site and whether these elements corresponded to PM2.5 measurements. Results suggest that 1) magnesium may be useful for detecting the reach of UNGD point source emissions, 2) complex surface topographic and meteorological conditions in the Marcellus Shale region could be modeled and confounding sources discounted, and 3) well pad emissions may be measurable at distances of at least 7 km. If shown to be more widely applicable, future tracer studies could enhance epidemiological studies showing health effects of UNGD-associated emissions at ≥15 km.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

New Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer equation by application of Kirchhoff's law and adding a convection term

An equation for the Absolute Cavity Pyrgeometer (ACP) is derived from application of Kirchhoff's law and the addition of a convection term to account for the thermopile being open to the environment, unlike a domed radiometer. The equation is then used to investigate four methods to characterise key instrumental parameters using laboratory and field measurements. The first uses solar irradiance to estimate the thermopile responsivity, the second uses a minimisation method that solves for the thermopile responsivity and transmission of the cavity, and the third and fourth revisit the Reda et al. (2012) linear least squares calibration technique. Data were collected between January and November 2020, when the ACP96 and two IRIS radiometers monitoring terrestrial irradiances were available. The results indicate good agreement with IRIS irradiances using the new equation. The analysis also indicates that while the thermopile responsivity, concentrator transmission and emissivity of an ACP can be determined independently, as an open instrument, the impact of the convection term is minor in steady-state conditions but significant when the base of the instrument is being subjected to rapid artificial cooling or heating. Using laboratory characterisation of the transmission and emissivity, together with use of an estimated solar calibration of the thermopile, generated mean differences of less than 1.5 Wm -2 to the two IRIS radiometers. A minimisation method using each IRIS radiometer as the reference also provided similar results, and the derived thermopile responsivity was within 0.3 µV W -1 m 2 of the solar-calibration-derived infrared responsivity estimate of 10.5 µV W -1 m 2 estimated using a nominal solar calibration and provide irradiances within ±2 % of the terrestrial irradiance measured by the reference pyrgeometers traceable to the International System of Units (SI). The calibration method using linear least squares regression introduced by Reda et al. (2012) that relies on rapid cooling of the ACP base but utilising the new equation was found to produce consistent results but was dependent on the assumed temperature of the air above the thermopile. This study demonstrates the potential of the ACP as another independent reference radiometer for terrestrial irradiance once the magnitude of the convection coefficient and any potential variations in it have been resolved.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain. As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO 2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗