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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1983

The atmospheric lifetime experiment. I - Introduction, instrumentation, and overview

The Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment is designed to determine accurately the atmospheric concentrations of the four halocarbons CFCl3, CF2Cl2, CCl4, and CH3CCl3, and also of N2O with emphasis on measurement of their long-term trends in the atmosphere. Comparison of these concentrations and trends for the four halocarbons with estimates of their industrial emission rates then enables calculations of their global circulation rates and globally averaged atmospheric lifetimes. The experiment utilizes automated dual-column electron-capture gas chromatographs which sample the background air about 4 times daily at the following globally distributed sites: Adrigole, Ireland, Cape Meares, Oregon; Ragged Point, Barbados; Point Matatula, American Samoa, and Cape Grim, Tasmania. The climatology of these 'clean air' sites and their ability to describe the global air mass are reviewed. The instrumentation and methods for data acquisition and processing are then described. An overview of the data obtained and the trends derived during the 3-year period from July 1978 through June 1981 for each of the five species being measured is presented.

Prinn, R. G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index; long-term observations of heat and drought; and 11 large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. We find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5) since 1979 and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. Therefore, we find that climate change has induced a higher weather-induced risk of such an extreme fire season. This trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor of 2 due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger, suggesting that the attribution of the increased fire weather risk is a conservative estimate. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season, September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode, factors which are included in the analysis here. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, the study concludes with a qualitative review of various vulnerability and exposure factors that each play a role, along with the hazard in increasing or decreasing the overall impact of the bushfires.

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan (ORCID:0000000268989535)↗
NASA NTRS1991

Ground-based infrared measurements of HNO3 total column abundances - Long-term trend and variability

The long-term trend and variability of the total column amount of atmospheric nitric acid (HNO3) have been investigated. The study was based on time series of infrared solar absorption spectra recorded at two sites, the International Scientific Station of the Jungfraujoch (ISSJ) in the Swiss Alps (altitude 3.6 km, latitude 46.5 N, longitude 8.0 E) and the National Solar Observatory McMath solar telescope facility on Kitt Peak (altitude 2.1 km, latitude 31.9 N, longitude 111.6 W), Arizona. Measurements of HNO3 absorption features recorded at Kitt Peak between 1980 and 1990 and measurements of the same features in ISSJ solar spectra obtained in June 1951 and June 1986 to June 1990 provide quantitative estimates of the long-term trend in the HNO3 total vertical column. It is found that the trend deduced for each site is equal to zero within the measurement uncertainty. The modern ISSJ measurements show that the fitted trend is (-0.16 + or - 0.50) percent/yr, 2 sigma, which indicates that there has been no detectable change in HNO3 total column over three decades. The Kitt Peak measurements show marked variability in the HNO3 total column, but no obvious seasonal cycle is observed.

Rinsland, C. P.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Regional Rates of Young US Forest Growth Estimated From Annual Landsat Disturbance History and IKONOS Stereo Imagery

Forests of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) have been found to be a large contributor to the global atmospheric carbon sink. The magnitude and nature of this sink is still uncertain and recent studies have sought to define the dynamics that control its strength and longevity. The Landsat series of satellites has been a vital resource to understand the long-term changes in land cover that can impact ecosystem function and terrestrial carbonstock. We combine annual Landsat forest disturbance history from 1985 to 2011 with single date IKONOS stereoimagery to estimate the change in young forest canopy height and above ground live dry biomass accumulation for selected sites in the CONUS. Our approach follows an approximately linear growth rate following clearing over short intervals and does not estimate the distinct non-linear growth rate over longer intervals.We produced canopy height models by differencing digital surface models estimated from IKONOS stereo pairs with national elevation data (NED). Correlations between height and biomass were established independently using airborne LiDAR, and then applied to the IKONOS-estimated canopy height models. Graphing current biomass against time since disturbance provided biomass accumulation rates. For 20 study sites distributed across five regions of the CONUS, 19 showed statistically significant recovery trends (p is less than 0.001) with canopy growth from 0.26 m yr-1to 0.73 m yr-1. Above ground live dry biomass (AGB) density accumulation ranged from 1.31 t/ha yr-1 to 12.47 t/ha yr-1. Mean forest AGB accumulationwas 6.31 t/ha yr-1 among all sites with significant growth trends. We evaluated the accuracy of our estimates by comparing to field estimated site index curves of growth, airborne LiDAR data, and independent model predictions of C accumulation. Growth estimates found with this approach are consistent with site index curves and total biomass estimates fall within the range of field estimates. This is aviable approach to estimate forest biomass accumulation in regions with clear-cut harvest disturbances.

Neigh, Christopher S. R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance of methods for SARS-CoV-2 variant detection and abundance estimation within mixed population samples

The accurate identification of SARS-CoV-2 (SC2) variants and estimation of their abundance in mixed population samples (e.g., air or wastewater) is imperative for successful surveillance of community level trends. Assessing the performance of SC2 variant composition estimators (VCEs) should improve our confidence in public health decision making. Here, we introduce a linear regression based VCE and compare its performance to four other VCEs: two re-purposed DNA sequence read classifiers (Kallisto and Kraken2), a maximum-likelihood based method (Lineage deComposition for Sars-Cov-2 pooled samples (LCS)), and a regression based method (Freyja). We simulated DNA sequence datasets of known variant composition from both Illumina and Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) platforms and assessed the performance of each VCE. We also evaluated VCEs performance using publicly available empirical wastewater samples collected for SC2 surveillance efforts. Bioinformatic analyses were performed with a custom NextFlow workflow (C-WAP, CFSAN Wastewater Analysis Pipeline). Relative root mean squared error (RRMSE) was used as a measure of performance with respect to the known abundance and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) was used to measure agreement between pairs of estimators. Based on our results from simulated data, Kallisto was the most accurate estimator as it had the lowest RRMSE, followed by Freyja. Kallisto and Freyja had the most similar predictions, reflected by the highest CCC metrics. We also found that accuracy was platform and amplicon panel dependent. For example, the accuracy of Freyja was significantly higher with Illumina data compared to ONT data; performance of Kallisto was best with ARTICv4. However, when analyzing empirical data there was poor agreement among methods and variations in the number of variants detected (e.g., Freyja ARTICv4 had a mean of 2.2 variants while Kallisto ARTICv4 had a mean of 10.1 variants). This work provides an understanding of the differences in performance of a number of VCEs and how accurate they are in capturing the relative abundance of SC2 variants within a mixed sample (e.g., wastewater). Such information should help officials gauge the confidence they can have in such data for informing public health decisions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimators and Fusers for Fiber Delay Estimation Using Environmental Measurements

The properties of deployed network fiber are affected by environmental factors due to their exposure to the elements. Particularly for quantum networks, the resultant delay variations may have significant impacts due to the extreme sensitivity of synchronization, coincidence counting, and other critical operations. In this paper, the delays of 15 km aerial-inground fiber connections are measured, and effects due to temperature, humidity and wind speed are analyzed over multiple periods spanning four seasons of a year. Machine learning methods are first utilized to reveal surprisingly pronounced effects of humidity on the delay, in addition to the expected temperature and its seasonal variations. Estimator and fusion methods are developed to estimate the delay using temperature, humidity and wind speed measurements, by utilizing smooth Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and nonsmooth Ensemble of Trees (EOT) methods. Measurements from winter and summer periods are temporally fused using twelve different methods, and eight methods provide estimates for the delay throughout the year with median test errors under 1.28%. The results reveal distinct temperature-humidity trends across the seasons, and the ability of estimator and temporal fusion methods to exploit them for estimating the delay. These results constitute a case study of machine learning analytical results, wherein generalization equations explain the performance of various estimator and fuser methods.

Rao, Nageswara [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000234085941)↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multi-Axis Identifiability Using Single-Surface Parameter Estimation Maneuvers on the X-48B Blended Wing Body

The problem of parameter estimation on hybrid-wing-body type aircraft is complicated by the fact that many design candidates for such aircraft involve a large number of aero- dynamic control effectors that act in coplanar motion. This fact adds to the complexity already present in the parameter estimation problem for any aircraft with a closed-loop control system. Decorrelation of system inputs must be performed in order to ascertain individual surface derivatives with any sort of mathematical confidence. Non-standard control surface configurations, such as clamshell surfaces and drag-rudder modes, further complicate the modeling task. In this paper, asymmetric, single-surface maneuvers are used to excite multiple axes of aircraft motion simultaneously. Time history reconstructions of the moment coefficients computed by the solved regression models are then compared to each other in order to assess relative model accuracy. The reduced flight-test time required for inner surface parameter estimation using multi-axis methods was found to come at the cost of slightly reduced accuracy and statistical confidence for linear regression methods. Since the multi-axis maneuvers captured parameter estimates similar to both longitudinal and lateral-directional maneuvers combined, the number of test points required for the inner, aileron-like surfaces could in theory have been reduced by 50%. While trends were similar, however, individual parameters as estimated by a multi-axis model were typically different by an average absolute difference of roughly 15-20%, with decreased statistical significance, than those estimated by a single-axis model. The multi-axis model exhibited an increase in overall fit error of roughly 1-5% for the linear regression estimates with respect to the single-axis model, when applied to flight data designed for each, respectively.

Ratnayake, Nalin A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Seasonal Trend of Single Scattering Albedo in Southern African Biomass-burning Particles: Implications for Satellite Products and Estimates of Emissions for the World's Largest Biomass-burning Source

As a representative site of the southern African biomass-burning region, sun-sky data from the 15 year Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) deployment at Mongu, Zambia, was analyzed. For the biomass-burning season months (July-November), we investigate seasonal trends in aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA), aerosol size distributions, and refractive indices from almucantar sky scan retrievals. The monthly mean single scattering albedo at 440 nm in Mongu was found to increase significantly from approx.. 0.84 in July to approx. 0.93 in November (from 0.78 to 0.90 at 675 nm in these same months). There was no significant change in particle size, in either the dominant accumulation or secondary coarse modes during these months, nor any significant trend in the Angstrom exponent (440-870 nm; r(exp 2) = 0.02). A significant downward seasonal trend in imaginary refractive index (r(exp 2) = 0.43) suggests a trend of decreasing black carbon content in the aerosol composition as the burning season progresses. Similarly, burning season SSA retrievals for the Etosha Pan, Namibia AERONET site also show very similar increasing single scattering albedo values and decreasing imaginary refractive index as the season progresses. Furthermore, retrievals of SSA at 388 nm from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument satellite sensor show similar seasonal trends as observed by AERONET and suggest that this seasonal shift is widespread throughout much of southern Africa. A seasonal shift in the satellite retrieval bias of aerosol optical depth from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer collection 5 dark target algorithm is consistent with this seasonal SSA trend since the algorithm assumes a constant value of SSA. Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer, however, appears less sensitive to the absorption-induced bias.

aerosol absorption↗
NASA NTRS2003

Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE): MIT Contribution

We describe in detail the instrumentation and calibrations used in the ALE, GAGE and AGAGE experiments and present a history of the majority of the anthropogenic ozone- depleting and climate-forcing gases in air based on these experiments. Beginning in 1978, these three successive automated high frequency in-situ experiments have documented the long-term behavior of the measured concentrations of these gases over the past twenty years, and show both the evolution of latitudinal gradients and the high frequency variability due to sources and circulation. We provide estimates of the long-term trends in total chlorine contained in long- lived halocarbons involved in ozone depletion. We summarize interpretations of these measurements using inverse methods to determine trace gas lifetimes and emissions. Finally, we provide a combined observational and modeled reconstruction of the evolution of chlorocarbons by latitude in the atmosphere over the past sixty years which can be used as boundary conditions for interpreting trapped air in glaciers and oceanic measurements of chlorocarbon tracers of the deep oceanic circulation. Some specific conclusions are: (a) International compliance with the Montreal Protocol is so far resulting in chlorofluorocarbon and chlorocarbon mole fractions comparable to target levels, (b) Mole fractions of total chlorine contained in long-lived halocarbons (CCl2F2, CCl3F, CH3CCl3, CCl4, CHClF2, CCl2FCClF2, CH3Cl, CH2Cl2, CHCl3, CCl2=CCl2) in the lower troposphere reached maximum values of about 3.6 ppb in 1993 and are beginning to slowly decrease in the global lower atmosphere, (c) The chlorofluorocarbons have atmospheric lifetimes consistent with destruction in the stratosphere being their principal removal mechanism, (d) Multi-annual variations in chlorofluorocarbon and chlorocarbon emissions deduced from ALUGAGWAGAGE data are consistent approximately with variations estimated independently from industrial production and sales data where available (CCl2F2 (CFC-12) and CCl2FCClF2 (CFC-113) show the greatest discrepancies), (e) The mole fractions of the hydrochlorofluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons, which are replacing the regulated halocarbons, are rising very rapidly in the atmosphere but, with the exception of the much longer manufactured CHClF2 (HCFC-22), they are not yet at levels sufficient to contribute significantly to atmospheric chlorine loading. These replacement species could in the future provide independent estimates of the global weighted-average OH concentration provided their industrial emissions are accurately documented, (f) In the future, analysis of pollution events measured using high frequency in-situ measurements of chlorofluorocarbons and their replacements may enable emission estimates at the regional level which, together with industrial end-use data, are of sufficient accuracy to be capable of identifying regional non-compliance with the Montreal Protocol.

Kurylo, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2023

System Study: High-Pressure Core Spray 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the high-pressure core spray (HPCS) at eight U.S. commercial operating boiling water reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. Statistically significant increasing trends were identified in both the HPCS system start-only unreliability and 8-hour mission unreliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

System Study: Reactor Core Isolation Cooling 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the reactor core isolation cooling (RCIC) system at 28 U.S. commercial operating boiling water reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from calendar years 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. Statistically significant decreasing trends were identified in both the RCIC system start-only unreliability and 8-hour mission unreliability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

System Study: High-Pressure Safety Injection 1998-2024

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the high-pressure safety injection system (HPSI) at 62 U.S. commercial operating nuclear reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from calendar years 1998 to 2024 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10-year period and yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. Statistically significant decreasing trends were identified in both the HPSI system start-only unreliability and 24-hour mission unreliability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Aquarius Retrieval of Sea Ice Thickness: Initial Results

Aquarius brightness temperature data are used to calculate sea ice thickness in the Arctic region. The method is based on the inversion of a radiative transfer model for icecovered sea. Using this technique, the initial sea ice thickness values retrieved from Aquarius data are compared to the SMOSIce Data as well as to estimates from NASA's Operation IceBridge. The results show similar trends between the SMOS- and Aquarius-derived sea ice thickness, however the Aquarius estimates tend to be higher and noisier than the corresponding SMOS values. The accuracy of retrieved Aquarius ice thickness is possibly influenced by uncertainties in the ancillary input parameters and by the coarser resolutions of Aquarius.

Sea Ice Thickness↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Inductor Current Estimation Approach for DC/DC Converters Based on Bisection Method

The trends toward higher power density and efficiency for the DC/DC converters has posed more strict requirements for inductors. The inductor current in turn affect the operating characteristics of the converters significantly and thus needs to be accurately estimated. In this paper, a new bisection-method-based inductor current estimation approach considering the variation of inductance is proposed. The proposed approach can be adapted and applied for various DC/DC converters, including the widely used buck and boost converters and etc. Comparing to the conventional estimation method using constant inductance, the proposed method can obtain more precise estimations of both the inductor current waveform and the power loss. Experimental results on a buck converter with a ferrite-core inductor are presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Zhao, Zhe↗
NASA NTRS1981

Total ozone trend significance from space time variability of daily Dobson data

Estimates of standard errors of total ozone time and area means, as derived from ozone's natural temporal and spatial variability and autocorrelation in middle latitudes determined from daily Dobson data are presented. Assessing the significance of apparent total ozone trends is equivalent to assessing the standard error of the means. Standard errors of time averages depend on the temporal variability and correlation of the averaged parameter. Trend detectability is discussed, both for the present network and for satellite measurements.

Wilcox, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Comparison of On-Orbit Performance of Rate Sensing Gyroscopes

This work presents results from the study of a large volume of spacecraft flight data pertaining to gyroscope performance. We have examined long and short term trends of gyroscope biase of first, an exact solution for the time-dependence of the attitude part of the state error covariance, averaged over the three spacecraft axes, is given. This solution is more complete than the usual cubic polynomial for the variance in that it includes coupling among the three gyroscope axes and includes an important term arising from the initial correlations. Second, several continuous 24-hour spans of gyroscope data are examined to verify the short-term statistical model. This analysis demonstrates that in-flight data can be used to determine the strength of the white noise driving the random walk of the gyroscope bias. This may be useful for postlaunch improvement to the noise model and for diagnosing the health of the gyroscope. Third, the long-term trends in gyroscope biases show a nearly linear systematic variation over time scales of years. This has been found on three different missions. While the random walk model is adequate as a basis for onboard Kalman filters or for state estimation using relatively short time spans, these trends indicate that some applications could benefit by accounting for the secular changes in the biases. One example is a new gyroscope calibration method that is under development that allows for multi-epoch bias solutions.

Sedlak, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2024

Twenty Years of Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities in Measuring and Understanding Soil Respiration

Abstract Soil respiration (Rs), the soil‐to‐atmosphere flux of CO 2 , is a dominant but uncertain part of the carbon cycle, even after decades of study. This review focuses on progress in understanding Rs from laboratory incubations to global estimates. We survey key developments of in situ ecosystem‐scale Rs observations and manipulations, synthesize Rs meta‐analyses and global flux estimates, and discuss the most compelling challenges and opportunities for the future. Increasingly sophisticated lab experiments have yielded insights into the interaction among heterotrophic respiration, substrate supply, and enzymatic kinetics, and extended incubation‐based analyses across space and time. Observational and manipulative field‐based experiments have used improved measurement approaches to deepen our understanding of the integrated effects of environmental change and disturbance on Rs. Freely‐available observational databases have enabled meta‐analyses and studies probing the magnitude of, and constraints on, the global Rs flux. Key challenges for the field include expanding Rs measurements, experiments, and opportunities to under‐represented communities and ecosystems; reconciling independent estimates of global respiration fluxes and trends; testing and leveraging the power of machine learning and process‐based models, both independently and in conjunction with each other; and continuing the field's tradition of using novel experiments to explore diverse mechanisms and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Citywide indoor air sampling mirrors wastewater and clinical for environmental surveillance of respiratory viruses

Wastewater surveillance of respiratory pathogens can provide timely estimates of viral activity and disease trends in a population. Indoor air surveillance could be used similarly with some advantages but remains largely unvalidated at the community -scale. Here, an indoor air surveillance program was employed as part of public health environmental surveillance in Chicago, Illinois, USA. Ten air samplers were placed in healthcare and congregate living settings across the city. Weekly air samples were evaluated for influenza A, influenza B, respiratory syncytial virus, and SARS -CoV-2 over two respiratory virus seasons (2023 -2025). Citywide, aggregated air sample positivity and viral load were closely correlated with local clinical case and wastewater surveillance data across all respiratory viruses. Virus trends in air data often preceded clinical and wastewater, although this varied across pathogens and respiratory virus seasons. Further, whole -genome sequencing of SARS -CoV-2 showed close correlation of variant proportions across all datasets. At the building -scale, air samples obtained from a single sampling device provided efficient respiratory virus surveillance, with respiratory pathogen levels mirroring citywide clinical surveillance data. These data demonstrate that air surveillance can provide respiratory virus case and variant trend data at a building or community -scale, serving as an alternative or complementary tool for public health environmental surveillance.

Wilton, Rosemarie↗