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NASA NTRS1979

Proton-driven electromagnetic instabilities in high-speed solar wind streams

Electromagnetic instabilities of the field-aligned, right-hand circularly polarized magnetosonic wave and the left-hand circularly polarized Alfven wave driven by two drifted proton components are analyzed for model parameters determined from Imp 7 solar wind proton data measured during high-speed flow conditions. Growth rates calculated using bi-Lorentzian forms for the main and beam proton as well as core and halo electron velocity distributions do not differ significantly from those calculated using bi-Maxwellian forms. Using distribution parameters determined from 17 measured proton spectra, we show that considering the uncertainties the magnetosonic wave may be linearly stable and the Alfven wave is linearly unstable. Because proton velocity distribution function shapes are observed to persist for times long compared to the proton gyroperiod, the latter result suggests that linear stability theory fails for proton-driven ion cyclotron waves in the high-speed solar wind.

Abraham-Shrauner, B.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Measurement of Low Amounts of Precipitable Water Vapor Using Ground-Based Millimeterwave Radiometry

Extremely dry conditions characterized by amounts of precipitable water vapor (PWV) as as 1-2 mm commonly occur in high-latitude regions during the winter months. While such atmospheres carry only a few percent of the latent heat energy compared to tropical atmospheres, the effects of low vapor amounts on the polar radiation budget - both directly through modulation of longwave radiation and indirectly through the formation of clouds - are considerable. Accurate measurements of precipitable water vapor (PWV) during such dry conditions are needed to improve polar radiation models for use in understanding and predicting change in the climatically sensitive polar regions. To this end, the strong water vapor absorption at 183.310 GHz provides a unique means of measuring low amounts of PWV. Weighting function analysis, forward model calculations based upon a 7-year radiosonde dataset, and retrieval simulations consistently predict that radiometric measurements made using several millimeter-wavelength (MMW) channels near the 183 GHz line, together with established microwave (MW) measurements at the 22.235 GHz water vapor line and -3 1 GHz atmospheric absorption window can be used to determine within 5% uncertainty the full range of PWV expected in the Arctic. This unique collective capability stands in spite of accuracy limitations stemming from uncertainties due to the sensitivity of the vertical distribution of temperature and water vapor at MMW channels. In this study the potential of MMW radiometry using the 183 GHz line for measuring low amounts of PWV is demonstrated both theoretically and experimentally. The study uses data obtained during March 1999 as part of an experiment conducted at the Department of Energy s Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) near Barrow, Alaska. Several radiometers from both NOAA and NASA were deployed during the experiment to provide the first combined MMW and MW ground-based data set during dry arctic conditions. Single-channel retrievals of PWV were performed using the MW and MMW data. Discrepancies in the retrieved values were found to be consistent with differences observed between measured brightness temperatures (TBs) and forward-modeled TBs based on concurrent radiosonde profiles. These discrepancies are greater than can be explained by measurement error alone and are attributed to absorption model uncertainty. We discuss here the measurements, retrieval technique, and line model discrepancies along with difficulties and potential of MMW/MW PWV measurement.

Racette, Paul E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Current Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities are not generating data fast enough to provide statistically-supportable precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates for future missions. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches – namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities – will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of operations on board the International Space Station (ISS), a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass for future missions. A Bayesian failure rate estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can help reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior failure rate estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, these subjective (and often inaccurate) prior estimates currently have a strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Supportability↗

NASA NTRS1991

A comparison of measured and calculated optical properties of atmospheric aerosols at infrared wavelengths

Measurements of 10.6-micron lidar backscatter were compared with calculated backscatter based on nearly simultaneous observations of stratospheric and tropospheric aerosol size distributions. It was found that there is better agreement in the troposphere, even though the uncertainties of the calculation are greater for this region due to the variables in both the spatial concentration and the physical makeup of the aerosol. A second comparison study was made to test the consistency of the mean tropospheric extinction values at 1.02 micron (as reported by the SAGE satellite) with the values calculated from an ensemble of 400 measured size distributions thought to be representative of midcontinental tropospheric aerosol. The two methods produce consistent results within the expected degree of uncertainty. The ensemble of 400 'proven' size distributions is then used to calculate a statistical relationship between the 1.02-micron extinction and the 10.6-micron backscatter.

Rosen, James M.↗

NASA NTRS1977

The spectral energy distribution of Zeta Puppis and HD 50896

The ultraviolet spectral energy distribution of the O5f star Zeta Pup and the WN5 star HD 50896 are derived from OAO-2 observations with the calibration of Bless, Code, and Fairchild (1976). An estimate of the interstellar reddening (0.12 magnitude) of the Wolf-Rayet star is determined from the size of the characteristic interstellar extinction bump at 4.6 inverse microns. After correction for extinction, both stars show a flat energy distribution in the ultraviolet. The distribution of HD 50896 from 1100 A to 2 microns is in good agreement with results of extended model atmospheres, but some uncertainty remains because of the interstellar-extinction correction. The absolute energy distribution of Zeta Pup is fitted by a 42,000-K plane-parallel model if the model's flux is adjusted for the effects of electron scattering in the stellar wind and for UV line blanketing that was determined empirically from high-resolution Copernicus satellite observations. To achieve this fit, it is necessary to push both the spectroscopically determined temperature and the ultraviolet calibration to the limits of their probable errors.

Holm, A. V.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The variability of the solar output

A review of solar constant determinations and measurements of its spectral distribution is presented. For the period from 1966 to 1980 a mean value of 1367 Wm-2 was determined. Within the corresponding uncertainty, no significant change of both the integral value and the spectral distribution can be detected. However, short term solar variations and their spectral dependence were deduced from measurements during four hours on June 20, 1980 from 34 km altitude with amplitudes of + or - 500 ppm at 368 nm, of 200 ppm at 500 nm and + or - 150 ppm at 778 nm. Comparison with simultaneous total irradiance data of the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) shows a high correlation which indicates the solar origin. The power spectrum shows a weak peak at about 3.2 mHz, which corresponds to the frequency of the 5 minutes solar oscillation.

Froehlich, C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variability in Modelled Airborne Dust Mineralogy Derived from Global Soil Composition Uncertainties

Dust aerosols consist on a variety of minerals with different physic and chemical properties. As such, they interact with short and long wave radiation, potentially form clouds, act as nutrients modulating biogeochemical cycles, or influence atmospheric chemistry, differently. Most current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) neglect the complexity in dust composition, mainly due to computational constraints, but also to the existing uncertainties in the size resolved composition of parent soils, the resulting distribution of minerals in airborne dust, and the scarcity of observations to constrain them. Within this work, we assess the variability of global dust composition due to uncertainties in the characterization of the parent soil mineralogy. To that end, we consider two available global soil mineralogy atlases, developed by Claquin et al. (1999) –C1999- and Journet et al. (2014) –J2014-, which represent respectively 8 and 12 relevant minerals for climate (namely: illite, smectite/montmorillonite, kaolinite, calcite, gypsum, hematite, quartz, and feldspars in C1999, and those plus chlorite, vermiculite, goethite, and mica in J2014). Thanks to a recently developed feature of the MONARCH atmospheric-chemistry model, we are able to explicitly resolve the minerals’ atmospheric cycle. Therefore, we define two global experiments to assess changes on airborne dust composition attributed to the soil mineralogy assumptions and provide a measure of their variability. We also perform a preliminary evaluation of the global mineralogy results against available observations of mineral fractions in surface dust concentration. Our results will inform the climate modelling community about the potential variability in dust composition, an aspect that will gain relevance as ESMs continue growing in complexity and new processes to better characterize aerosols’ forcing or biogeochemical cycles are added. Further observational constraints, such as those that will derive from the EMIT NASA mission on soil composition or the FRAGMENT experimental campaigns on airborne dust characterization, will be key in the near future to improve our understanding of the impact of dust mineralogy on fundamental climate features.

Dust aerosols↗

NASA NTRS1989

Infrared-fiber-optic fire sensor developments - Role of measurement uncertainty in evaluation of background limited range

Fire-detector systems based on distributed infrared fiber-sensors have been investigated for potential applications in the aerospace industry. Responsivities to blackbody and flame radiations were measured with various design configurations of an infrared fiber-optic sensor. Signal processing techniques were also investigated, and the results show significant differences in the fire-sensor performance depending on the design configuration. Measurement uncertainties were used to determine the background-limited ranges for the various fire-sensor concepts, and the probability of producing false alarms caused by fluctuations in the background signals were determined using extreme probability theory. The results of the research show that infrared fiber-optic fire sensors are feasible for application on manned spacecraft; however, additional development work will be required to eliminate false alarms caused by high temperature objects such as incandescent lamps.

Tapphorn, Ralph M.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Probable LAGEOS contributions to a worldwide geodynamics control network

The paper describes simulations performed on the contributions which LAGEOS laser ranging data can make to the establishment of a worldwide geodynamics control network. A distribution of 10 fixed ranging stations was assumed for most of the calculations, and a single 7-day arc was used, measurements assumed to be made every 10 minutes in order to avoid artificial reductions in the uncertainties due to oversampling. Computer simulations were carried out in which the coordinates of the stations and improvements in the gravity field coefficients were solved for simultaneously. It is suggested that good accuracy for station coordinates can be expected, even with the present gravity field model uncertainties, if sufficient measurement accuracy is achieved at a reasonable distribution of stations. Further, it is found that even 2-cm range measurement errors would be likely to be the main source of station coordinate errors in retrospective analyses of LAGEOS ranging results five or six years from now.

Bender, P. L.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2010

Changes in Stratiform Clouds of Mesoscale Convective Complex Introduced by Dust Aerosols

Aerosols influence the earth s climate through direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects. There are large uncertainties in quantifying these effects due to limited measurements and observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. As a major terrestrial source of atmospheric aerosols, dusts may serve as a significant climate forcing for the changing climate because of its effect on solar and thermal radiation as well as on clouds and precipitation processes. Latest satellites measurements enable us to determine dust aerosol loadings and cloud distributions and can potentially be used to reduce the uncertainties in the estimations of aerosol effects on climate. This study uses sensors on various satellites to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in mesoscale convective complex (MCC). A trans-Atlantic dust outbreak of Saharan origin occurring in early March 2004 is considered. For the observed MCCs under a given convective strength, small hydrometeors were found more prevalent in the dusty stratiform regions than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust regions, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of clouds and precipitation. The consequences of the microphysical effects of the dust aerosols were to shift the size spectrum of precipitation-sized hydrometeors from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately to suppress precipitation and increase the lifecycle of cloud systems, especially over stratiform areas.

Lin, B.↗

NASA NTRS1975

NO sub X Deposited in the Stratosphere by the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Motors

The possible effects of the interaction of the plumes from the two solid rocket motors (SRM) from the space shuttles and mixing of the rocket exhaust products and ambient air in the base recirculation region on the total nitrous oxide deposition rate in the stratosphere were investigated. It was shown that these phenomena will not influence the total NOx deposition rate. It was also shown that uncertainties in the particle size of Al2O3, size distributions and particle/gas drag and heat transfer coefficients will not have a significant effect on the predicted NOx deposition rate. The final results show that the total mass flow of NOx leaving the plume at 30 km altitude is 4000 g./sec with a possible error factor of 3. For a vehicle velocity of 1140 meter/sec this yields an NOx deposition rate of about 3.5 g./meter. The corresponding HCl deposition rate at this altitude is about a factor of 500 greater than this value.

Pergament, H. S.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A study of the diffuse galactic gamma radiation

Assuming cosmic rays pervade the Galaxy, they necessarily produced high energy gamma-rays as they interact with the instellar matter and photons. The cosmic ray nucleon interactions five rise to gamma rays primarily through the decay of pi mesons, giving a unique spectrum with a maximum at approximately 68 MeV. Cosmic ray electrons produce gamma rays through bremsstrahlung, but with a markedly different energy spectral shape, one which decreases monotonically with energy. Cosmic ray electrons also interact with the interstellar starlight, optical and infrared photons, and the blackbody radiation through the Compton process. A model of galactic gamma ray production is discussed, and the predicted spatial distribution and energy spectra are presented. Considering the uncertainty in the point source contributions, the agreement between the theoretical predictions and the gamma ray data seems quite reasonable.

Fichtel, C. E.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Review of probabilistic analysis of dynamic response of systems with random parameters

The various methods that have been studied in the past to allow probabilistic analysis of dynamic response for systems with random parameters are reviewed. Dynamic response may have been obtained deterministically if the variations about the nominal values were small; however, for space structures which require precise pointing, the variations about the nominal values of the structural details and of the environmental conditions are too large to be considered as negligible. These uncertainties are accounted for in terms of probability distributions about their nominal values. The quantities of concern for describing the response of the structure includes displacements, velocities, and the distributions of natural frequencies. The exact statistical characterization of the response would yield joint probability distributions for the response variables. Since the random quantities will appear as coefficients, determining the exact distributions will be difficult at best. Thus, certain approximations will have to be made. A number of techniques that are available are discussed, even in the nonlinear case. The methods that are described were: (1) Liouville's equation; (2) perturbation methods; (3) mean square approximate systems; and (4) nonlinear systems with approximation by linear systems.

Kozin, F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Adaptive structures; Proceedings of the ASME Winter Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Dec. 10-15, 1989

The present conference on adaptive structures discusses piezoelectric and electrostrictive sensors and actuators for adaptive structures and smart materials, real-time control for composite structures with embedded actuators and sensors, a laminated-shell theory incorporating embedded distributed actuators, traveling-wave power flow techniques, uncertainty modeling for the control of an active structure, and active vibration isolation in the presence of unmodeled structural dynamic response. Also discussed are the control of flexible beams via free-free active truss, truss structure control using member actuators with latch mechanism, neural processors for smart-structure control, the effect of imperfections on the static control of adaptive structures, adaptive structures for segmented optical systems, and the shape-control of flexible structures.

Wada, Ben K.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Non-isotropic turbulence effects on spray combustion

A numerical model for the prediction of local properties of statistically stationary spray-combusting flows is evaluated by comparison with experimental data. To appraise the relative performance of turbulence models, computations were carried out by the k-epsilon model and the algebraic stress model. The present numerical results show the qualitative agreement with experimental data. In terms of overall local flow properties, the algebraic stress model improves a degree of conformity to the experimental data due to its ability to introduce the nonisotropic turbulence effects. Two swirl numbers are considered to investigate the influence of swirl on the droplet evaporation and trajectories, and the effects of droplet/turbulence interactions in flow properties. It is found that the large swirl produces a higher evaporationn rate, and more intensive turbulent mixing and burning. The discrepancies observed in the results are attributed mainly to uncertainties in the initial spray size and velocity distributions, the droplet/wall impingement interaction, the combustion model with the fast chemistry and the turbulence models dealing with the strong streamline curvature and complex interactions between the dispersed droplets and the continuous gas-phase flows.

Kim, Y. M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Design Methodology and its Application to the Design of an Umbilical Retract Mechanism

A lot has been learned from past experience with structural and machine element failures. The understanding of failure modes and the application of an appropriate design analysis method can lead to improved structural and machine element safety as well as serviceability. To apply Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM), all uncertainties are modeled as random variables with selected distribution types, means, and standard deviations. It is quite difficult to achieve a robust design without considering the randomness of the design parameters which is the case in the use of the Deterministic Design Approach. The US Navy has a fleet of submarine-launched ballistic missiles. An umbilical plug joins the missile to the submarine in order to provide electrical and cooling water connections. As the missile leaves the submarine, an umbilical retract mechanism retracts the umbilical plug clear of the advancing missile after disengagement during launch and retrains the plug in the retracted position. The design of the current retract mechanism in use was based on the deterministic approach which puts emphasis on factor of safety. A new umbilical retract mechanism that is simpler in design, lighter in weight, more reliable, easier to adjust, and more cost effective has become desirable since this will increase the performance and efficiency of the system. This paper reports on a recent project performed at Tennessee State University for the US Navy that involved the application of PDM to the design of an umbilical retract mechanism. This paper demonstrates how the use of PDM lead to the minimization of weight and cost, and the maximization of reliability and performance.

Onyebueke, Landon↗

NASA NTRS2009

Reliability-Based Design Optimization of a Composite Airframe Component

A stochastic design optimization methodology (SDO) has been developed to design components of an airframe structure that can be made of metallic and composite materials. The design is obtained as a function of the risk level, or reliability, p. The design method treats uncertainties in load, strength, and material properties as distribution functions, which are defined with mean values and standard deviations. A design constraint or a failure mode is specified as a function of reliability p. Solution to stochastic optimization yields the weight of a structure as a function of reliability p. Optimum weight versus reliability p traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the inverted-S graph corresponded to 50 percent (p = 0.5) probability of success. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure that corresponds to unity for reliability p (or p = 1). Weight can be reduced to a small value for the most failure-prone design with a reliability that approaches zero (p = 0). Reliability can be changed for different components of an airframe structure. For example, the landing gear can be designed for a very high reliability, whereas it can be reduced to a small extent for a raked wingtip. The SDO capability is obtained by combining three codes: (1) The MSC/Nastran code was the deterministic analysis tool, (2) The fast probabilistic integrator, or the FPI module of the NESSUS software, was the probabilistic calculator, and (3) NASA Glenn Research Center s optimization testbed CometBoards became the optimizer. The SDO capability requires a finite element structural model, a material model, a load model, and a design model. The stochastic optimization concept is illustrated considering an academic example and a real-life raked wingtip structure of the Boeing 767-400 extended range airliner made of metallic and composite materials.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗