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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Grain Boundary and Lattice Fracture Toughness of UO 2 Measured Using Small-Scale Mechanics

Small-scale mechanical testing has been used to isolate the properties of individual grain boundaries and regions of the lattice in undoped UO 2 polycrystals. Notched microcantilever specimens were prepared by focused ion beam milling and tested in bending. Fracture toughness values were calculated from finite element analysis of the sample geometry at fracture load using the J-integral method. Lattice and grain boundary fracture toughness values of 1.17 ± 0.16 MPa m 1/2 and 1.08 ± 0.08 MPa m 1/2 , respectively, were obtained. The similarity between the lattice and grain boundary fracture toughness values is consistent with the preference for transgranular room-temperature fracture in UO 2 . The grain boundary and lattice fracture toughness values also agree well with the toughness of dense polycrystals, which suggests that microstructural-scale toughening mechanisms are limited in such samples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiative heat transfer in FLiBe molten salt participating medium in a vertical heated tube under forced and mixed convection laminar flows

The contribution of radiative heat transfer (RHT) to convective heat transfer in a heated vertical pipe with laminar flow and constant wall temperature, for FLiBe molten salt, is investigated computationally. The combined effects of conduction in the fluid, forced convection, buoyancy, temperature-dependent physical properties, and thermal radiation are investigated. The P1 approximation is employed in the discretization of the Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE). The COMSOL Multiphysics software is used to generate the numerical solutions. The theoretical analysis developed here demonstrates that only for intermediate values of the optical thickness, i.e. τ D ~ O 1 , the participating media effects are expected to be important. This analysis is confirmed computationally and a value of τ D ≈ 4 is shown to lead to the highest increase in overall heat transfer behavior. Under forced convection, the Nusselt ratio N u total / N u no - rad reaches a peak value of 1.76 at τ D = 4 and z/D = 200 , and is less than 1.1 for τ D < 0 . 1 and τ D > 60 . Under aiding-flow mixed convection, N u total / N u no - rad reaches a peak of 1.34 at τ D = 4 . 2 and is less than 1.1 for τ D < 0 . 4 and τ D > 36 . Under opposing-flow mixed convection, Nu total / Nu no - rad reaches a peak of 1.81 at τ D = 4 . 2 and is less than 1.1 for τ D < 0 . 2 and τ D > 50 . RHT effects on the overall heat transfer are most pronounced in opposing mixed convection, where N u total / N u no - rad is 2.26 observed at z/D = 50 . The sensitivity to wall emissivity is evaluated; in forced convection, the peak N u total / N u no - rad is 1.66 at ε = 0 (reflective wall) and 2.04 at ε = 1 (absorptive wall). Finally, the sensitivity to pipe diameter is also discussed. Overall, for a vertical heated tube, radiative heat transfer effects lead to enhancement of heat transfer by as high as a factor of two, and they depend on the optical thickness of the flow, mixed convection environment ( Gr / R e 2 and direction of flow relative to the gravitational force), surface emissivity, and entrance effects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Default Radioactive and Hazardous Waste Management (RHWM) Dose Conversion Factors (DCFs) and Weighting Factors and plutonium-239 equivalent Curie (PE-Ci) methodology for acceptance into the Waste Storage Facilities

DOE-STD-5506-2007 (Ref. 1) is the standard that provides the methodology for preparing hazard analysis and accident analysis for transuranic (TRU) waste facilities. The Waste Storage Facilities hazard and accident analysis for the DSA is developed in accordance with DOE-STD- 5506-2007. Two related issues need to be addressed when implementing DOE-STD-5506-2007 regarding the calculation of consequences from TRU waste releases in accident analysis: Consequences determined in accident analysis must be modeled using inhalation Dose Conversion Factors (DCFs) that are consistent with those from the International Commission on Radiological Protection Publication 72 (ICRP-72, Ref. 2).; The use of a statistical Material at Risk (MAR) representing the distribution of radiological loading of TRU waste containers based on the use of a plutonium-239 equivalent Curie (PE-Ci) methodology. The PE-Ci methodology simplifies accident analysis by allowing one to model releases based on the Curie value of one standard nuclide (e.g., Pu-239) instead of needing to model releases for every potential nuclide of interest. This is accomplished by normalizing the Curie value of all nuclides to a single Curie value of a standard nuclide by using a Weighting Factor that is a ratio of the DCFs associated with the nuclides and that of the standard nuclide. By using the ICRP-72 DCFs to calculate PE-Ci values used in the statistical MAR, the accident analysis that uses that statistical MAR will be consistent with the consequence methodology identified in DOE-STD- 5506-2007.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mercury speciation using microcolumns with a direct mercury analyzer (DMA). Development of analytical method for the Savannah River Site liquid system

Mercury in the Savannah River Site (SRS) Liquid Waste System (LWS) exists in various forms, including: a) ionic inorganic mercury, organomercury (e.g., methyl Hg), and other less abundant species dissolved in LWS fluids, b) mercury solids such as oxides, hydroxides, amalgams, sulfides, and sorbed mercury, c) accumulations of dense liquid elemental mercury, and d) vapor phase elemental and organomercury mercury in tank headspace gas and in evaporators. Strategic and proactive management of the estimated 60,000 Kg mercury in the LWS requires deployment of efficient and effective paradigms for sampling and analysis of the total quantity of mercury in the various physical-chemical forms. Scoping tests of selective gas-phase sorbents for mercury speciation were performed to support LWS objectives. This research specifically focused on developing and testing streamlined methods to obtain high-quality analytical results for gaseous mercury species. The proposed methods are straightforward, using small columns (microcolumns) filled with materials that selectively sorb one or more target forms of mercury. Simple differentiation of mercury species and quantification is then achieved using an efficient thermal-desorption-based total mercury analyzer as the final step. Benefits associated with transitioning from multistep procedures such as EPA Methods 245.1, 1630 and 1631to streamlined microcolumn approaches include reduced analysis time, labor, and waste generation. Such transitioning would maximize the value of the current deployment of direct mercury analysis (EPA Method 7473) at SRS. This work has two target end uses: 1) simplifying the analysis steps and reducing costs for liquid samples (e.g., developing a total organic mercury (TOM) method), and 2) providing options for high-quality onsite analysis and rapid turnaround for gas samples in support of SRS LWS industrial hygiene (IH) objectives.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutronics Analysis of Heating and DPA of the Proton Beam Window and Core Vessel Nozzle Neutronics Heating Analysis for the Second Target Station

This reports details the analysis of the heating rates, dpa values and He production in the Proton Beam Window (PBW) assembly and the Core Vessel (CV) nozzle for the preliminary design for the Second Target Station (STS). This analysis focuses on the heating rates in the cooled beltline component of the CV. Neutronics calculations use a detailed unstructured mesh (UM) converted from a CAD model in SpaceClaim of the PBW and CV design of February 2024. The rest of the geometry is taken from the STS master model in constructive solid geometry (CSG). Heating is evaluated for four beam profiles, which are chosen as the most likely to produce the highest heating in the beltline component. The maximum energy deposition values in the beltline are 0.02-0.08 J/cc/pulse, depending on the beam profile. Detailed point cloud data of the full UM geometry is made available for mechanical analysis. The maximum dpa rate in the beltline steel is approximately 0.02 dpa/year, which corresponds to a lifetime of 3,000 years. These results are in good agreement with previous results for the CV. For the PBW itself, maximal heating, dpa, and He production rates are very similar to the previous analysis.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Artifact Analysis of Self-Admitted Technical Debt in Scientific Software

Context: Self-admitted technical debt (SATD) occurs when developers acknowledge shortcuts in code. In scientific software (SSW), such debt poses unique risks to the validity and reproducibility of results. Objective: This study aims to identify, categorize, and evaluate scientific debt, a specialized form of SATD in SSW, and assess the extent to which traditional SATD categories capture these domain-specific issues. Method: We conduct a multi-artifact analysis across code comments, commit messages, pull requests, and issue trackers from 23 open-source SSW projects. We construct and validate a curated dataset of scientific debt, develop a multi-source SATD classifier to guide SATD management, and conduct a practitioner validation to assess the practical relevance of scientific debt. Results: Our classifier performs strongly across 900,358 artifacts from 23 SSW projects. SATD is most prevalent in pull requests and issue trackers, underscoring the value of multi-artifact analysis. Models trained on traditional SATD often miss scientific debt, emphasizing the need for its explicit detection in SSW. Practitioner validation confirmed that scientific debt is both recognizable and useful in practice. Conclusions: Scientific debt represents a unique form of SATD in SSW that that is not adequately captured by traditional categories and requires specialized identification and management. Our dataset, classification analysis, and practitioner validation results provide the first formal multi-artifact perspective on scientific debt, highlighting the need for tailored SATD detection approaches in SSW.

Melin, Eric [Boise State University]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing Error-Bounded Lossy Compression for Scientific Data With Diverse Constraints

Vast volumes of data are produced by today's scientific simulations and advanced instruments. These data cannot be stored and transferred efficiently because of limited I/O bandwidth, network speed, and storage capacity. Error-bounded lossy compression can be an effective method for addressing these issues: not only can it significantly reduce data size, but it can also control the data distortion based on user-defined error bounds. In practice, many scientific applications have specific requirements or constraints for lossy compression, in order to guarantee that the reconstructed data are valid for post hoc analysis. For example, some datasets contain irrelevant data that should be isolated in particular and users often have intuition regarding value ranges, geospatial regions, and other data subsets that are crucial for subsequent analysis. Existing state-of-the-art error-bounded lossy compressors, however, do not consider these constraints during compression, resulting in inferior compression ratios with respect to user's post hoc analysis, due to the fact that the data itself provides little or no value for post hoc analysis. In this work we address this issue by proposing an optimized framework that can preserve diverse constraints during the error-bounded lossy compression, e.g., cleaning the irrelevant data, efficiently preserving different precision for multiple value intervals, and allowing users to set diverse precision over both regular and irregular regions. We perform our evaluation on a supercomputer with up to 2,100 cores. Experiments with six real-world applications show that our proposed diverse constraints based error-bounded lossy compressor can obtain a higher visual quality or data fidelity on reconstructed data with the same or even higher compression ratios compared with the traditional state-of-the-art compressor SZ. Furthermore, our experiments also demonstrate very good scalability in compression performance compared with the I/O throughput of the parallel file system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Description and Use of SCALE Sampler Parametric Capability for Engineering Analysis and Optimization

The Sampler sequence was introduced into the SCALE nuclear modeling and simulation suite in SCALE 6.2 to perform uncertainty quantification via random sampling of nuclear data, material number densities, and dimensions. Sampler was expanded with the introduction of a parametric capability in SCALE 6.2.2. This paper discusses input for the Sampler parametric sequence and presents two case studies of analyses performed using the sequence. These case studies include preconceptual design of a package for transporting high assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) oxide and scoping calculations to support subcritical limit development for a future update of the ANSI/ANS-8.1 (ANS-8.1) standard. The parametric capability within Sampler provides many benefits to analysts. For instance, parametric sweeps are frequently used to identify optimum parameter values as part of safety analysis or system design, but such sweeps can require substantial engineering time or may rely on custom-written scripts or scripts such as Write One, Run Many (or WORM) developed outside of any software quality assurance program. With the parametric capabilities in Sampler, however, a large number of inputs can be generated automatically without recourse to scripting by individual analysts. The parametric capability can also be used in lieu of the CSAS5S search sequence to identify optimum parameters more simply with straightforward inputs and outputs. Sampler can also be used to calculate input parameters from engineering specifications. For example, diameters can be converted to radii, or masses can be used to calculate number densities. Overall, the Sampler parametric capability provides a robust feature within SCALE, eliminating the need for user-developed scripting.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Alternative analysis of the MINERVE ZPR oscillation experiments

Delayed neutrons are of fundamental importance in the field of nuclear reactor dynamics and control. However, the precursor yield fraction for a given nuclear reactor are dependent on the properties of the reactor. Thus, in-pile experiments, such as oscillation experiments are conducted in order to measure those values. In this work, an alternative analysis of the piston oscillation experiments that have been conducted in the MINERVE reactor in 2013 is performed. A new method which evolves effective terms that cancel out undesired drifts of the flux during the experiments is presented. The evaluation of the uncertainty on the values of the response function is also presented. Moreover, the effective delayed neutron fraction β{sub eff} is evaluated and is compared to results in previous works. As the analysis has led to an estimation of β{sub eff} with a large uncertainty, it has been deduced that the oscillation experiments that have been conducted in MINERVE are not a reliable method of experimentation to determine the value of β{sub eff} in the reactor and that the noise experiments are better suited for that purpose.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles with Different Size Classes and Powertrains

In order to accurately compare the costs of two vehicles, the total cost of ownership (TCO) should consist of all costs related to both purchasing and operating the vehicle. This TCO analysis builds on previous work to provide a comprehensive perspective of all relevant vehicle costs of ownership. In this report, we present what we believe to be the most comprehensive explicit financial analysis of the costs that will be incurred by a vehicle owner. This study considers vehicle cost and depreciation, financing, fuel costs, insurance costs, maintenance and repair costs, taxes and fees, and other operational costs to formulate a holistic total cost of ownership and operation of multiple different vehicles. For each of these cost parameters that together constitute a comprehensive TCO, extensive literature review and data analysis were performed to find representative values in order to build a holistic TCO for vehicles of all size classes. The light- and heavy-duty vehicles selected for analysis in this report are representative of those that are on the road today and expected to be available in the future. Important additive analyses in this study include systematic analysis of vehicle depreciation, in-depth examination of insurance premium costs, comprehensive maintenance and repair estimates, analysis of all relevant taxes and fees, and considerations of specific costs applicable to commercial vehicles. We find that cars depreciate faster than light trucks and that older plug-in electric vehicles have a greater depreciation rate than newer electric vehicles. Light-duty vehicle (LDV) insurance costs show comparable costs for different powertrains, and lower costs for larger size classes. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) insurance costs vary significantly by vocation. Electric and electrified powertrains have lower maintenance and repair costs than internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrains for all vehicle sizes, relative to vehicle price. MHDV maintenance and repair costs depend heavily on vocation and duty cycle. LDV taxes and fees are comparable across powertrain types and size classes, though marginally higher registration fees exist for alternative fuel vehicles. MHDV fees depend on the vocation, weight rating, and state. Many electric tractor trailers would be affected by additional battery weight, reducing the available payload capacity, and this cost can be substantial. Electric vehicle charging for commercial vehicles can be time-consuming; labor rates can cause this cost to dominate TCO. With improved knowledge of each of the cost components, we calculate a lifetime TCO for comparison across vehicles of different types and attributes. For a simulated small sport utility vehicle in 2025, modeled using Autonomie, the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) has the lowest cost, followed by the conventional ICE vehicle. For MHDV, TCO can be drastically different depending on the vocation. Long-haul vehicles typically have the lowest per-mile costs. Excluding labor costs, the class 4 delivery has a comparable TCO to the day cab. Vocational trucks, refuse trucks, and transit buses have a high per-mile cost of ownership due to maintenance and insurance. For all of these vehicles, the cost of operating the vehicle is heavily weighted by the labor of the driver, followed by the fuel costs. While the HEV begins as the lowest cost powertrain for passenger vehicles, fuel cells are forecast to reach cost parity by 2030 when hydrogen prices reach $\$ 5$/kg while battery electric vehicles (BEV) reach cost parity by 2035 at a battery cost of $\$ 98$ per usable kWh of capacity, with these two technologies being the lowest cost in 2050. For the class 8 day cab tractor, the HEV and ICE vehicle begin as the lowest cost powertrains, and the 250-mile BEV reduces in cost from the most expensive to the least expensive by 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels at Nuclear Plants

A case study analysis was performed to evaluate nuclear-powered synthetic fuel production in the midwestern United States (U.S.). A Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuel synthesis plant design was used as the basis for the analysis. The FT plant design was configured to produce a product slate consisting of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and motor gasoline blend stocks from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen (H 2 ) feedstocks. The CO 2 feedstock for the FT plant was assumed to be sourced from biorefineries in the region around a Midwest light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant (NPP). The analysis specifies that power from the LWR is used to produce H 2 via high-temperature steam electrolysis and to operate the FT synfuel production plant. Capital costs were estimated for the FT plant while capital costs for the electrolysis plant were based on previous Idaho National Laboratory (INL) studies. In addition to labor and maintenance costs for the FT and electrolysis plants, operating costs also include the costs for CO 2 feedstock transport. An analysis was performed to determine the cost of transporting CO 2 from the distributed biorefinery sources to the centralized fuel synthesis plant as a function of the synfuel plant capacity and corresponding CO 2 demand. The primary revenue streams are associated with sales of the synthetic fuel products. The synthetic fuel products will likely follow the same market trends as the conventional fuel products. The synfuel price data was thus based on projections made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2021 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for conventional fuel products minus federal and state taxes, as well as marketing and distribution costs. The economic analysis also considered cases that included and excluded revenues from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean hydrogen production tax credit (PTC) of $\$ $3.00/kg for the first ten years of operation. The economic analysis calculated the net present value (NPV) for cases involving steady-state synfuel production for comparison with the NPV for a business-as-usual case in which NPP continues to sell only electric power to the grid. A synfuel production “Reference Case” was considered in addition to sensitivity cases in which the plant capacity, electricity price, and synthetic fuel product prices were perturbed. The synfuel production Reference Case considered a scenario in which the electrolysis and synfuel plants utilized a combined electrical load of 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) from the LWR with the balance of the LWR power output being sold to the electric grid. The economic analysis suggests that the synfuel production Reference Case evaluated in this analysis would lead to considerable economic potential for near-term deployment of a nuclear-based synfuel production plant. Specifically, the economic analysis suggests that the deployment of a 1000 megawatt (MW) nuclear-powered synfuel plant could result in a NPV increase of approximately $\$ $1.7 billion for a case with no clean synfuel price premium relative to conventional petroleum fuels when accounting for the additional revenues from the 2022 IRA clean hydrogen PTCs of $\$ $3/kg. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of perturbation of selected model input parameters on the NPV for the synfuel production Reference Case. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the plant capacity has the largest impact on the differential NPV, with a smaller synfuel production capacity resulting in a decrease in revenue when a larger fraction of the power from the NPP is sold to the grid and a smaller fraction of the power is used to produce synthetic fuel products. The synfuel product pricing has the next largest impact on the differential NPV, with lower synfuel prices resulting in decreased NPV from decreased synfuel sales revenue while higher synfuel prices result in increased NPV from increased synfuel sales revenue. Electricity pricing has a smaller effect on the NPV than the fuel sales price since, in the Reference Case, most of the energy from the NPP is used for synfuel production and a smaller amount of the system revenues are associated with electrical power sales. However, the electricity price sensitivity does indicate that the Synfuel Integrated Energy System (IES) would have a greater NPV than the business-as-usual case (e.g., grid power sales only) when electricity market prices are low, suggesting that synfuel production could provide a strategy for decreasing the economic risks to NPPs posed by a loss of revenues attributed to falling electricity market prices.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS TOOLKIT FOR PLANT RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION

This paper presents the development of methods and tools that are being designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules and optimal maintenance postures for plant components) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available component health and cost data. These methods include both data- and model-based optimization methods. Model-based optimization methods directly include reliability and cost models to determine an optimal plant operational strategy. We consider gradient-based and evolutionary (based on genetic algorithms) optimization methods. The second class of methods target more specific use cases (e.g., project schedule optimization) and are not based on reliability models directly, but they require specific component reliability and cost data. This class of methods is based on variants of the knapsack problem with an aim to determine an optimal project schedule that maximizes the overall NPV. This paper also presents multi-objective methods designed to identify an optimal maintenance posture based on a Pareto frontier analysis. Rather than dictating the “right” tradeoff (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), we show how it is possible to perform a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and let the analysis account for desired value and cost metrics). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space. For all these methods we present detailed applicative examples that show their validity from a decision-making perspective.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Catalytic Pyrolysis Aromatic Selectivity from Pyrolysis Vapor Composition Using Mass Spectra Coupled with Statistical Analysis

The behavior of fast pyrolysis (FP) and catalytic FP (CFP) of 20 renewable feedstocks was studied in a microscale reactor with molecular beam mass spectral analysis of products generated. A partial least-squares (PLS) model was constructed based on the FP vapor spectra that predicts the aromatic selectivity when upgrading over a ZSM-5 catalyst. Additionally, principal component analysis of both FP and CFP spectra was performed for comprehensive spectral analysis. This work highlighted the value of vapor-phase mass spectral screening to predict the subsequent feedstock performance and demonstrated that the quantity of coke deposited on the catalyst is not a reliable measure of catalyst deactivation when the feedstock type is varied.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The bioprocess TEA calculator: An online technoeconomic analysis tool to evaluate the commercial competitiveness of potential bioprocesses

Techno-economic analysis connects R&D, engineering, and business. By linking process parameters to financial metrics, it allows researchers to understand the factors controlling the potential success of their technologies. In particular, metabolic and bioprocess engineering, as disciplines, are aimed at engineering cells to synthesize products with an ultimate goal of commercial deployment. As a result it is critical to be able to understand the potential impact of strain engineering strategies and lab scale results on commercial potential. To date, while numerous techno-economic models have been developed for a wide variety of bioprocesses, they have either required process engineering expertise to adapt and/or use or do not directly connect financial outcomes to potential strain engineering results. Despite the clear value of techno-economic analysis, these challenges have made it inaccessible to many researchers. Furthermore, the tool, currently focused on aerobic fermentation processes, can be used to understand the impact of fermentation level metrics on the commercial potential of a bioprocess for the production of a wide variety of organic molecules. Using the calculator, I review the commercially relevant targets for an aerobic bioprocess for the production of diethyl malonate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Paired Hydro-Battery Hybrid System Operations Using MIQP Based Multi-Objective Optimization

Hybridizing a hydropower plant with a battery energy storage system is often a very expensive decision. So to make the case for feasibility of hybridization the cost benefit analysis must be comprehensive. Most literature found on this subject only uses one out of many different available value streams to carry out a feasibility analysis. To that end, in this study we propose a multi-objective optimization formulation and a mixed-integer quadratic programming optimization engine that considers multiple different value streams and optimizes hydro-battery hybrid system paired operations to maximize revenue generated from energy arbitrage while simultaneously minimizing the total hydro turbine mileage thus reducing turbine starts and stops and improving turbines life all while following all environmental constraints and not violating any limitations either regulatory or preferential (i.e., to support recreational activities like white water rafting, etc.). In this study we also implemented the developed optimization methodology to a real-world case study of Bagnell dam hydropower facility (8 units totaling 240 MW rated power capacity) which is owned and operated by our industry partner Ameren Energy Inc. The case study outcomes shows that by hybridizing the Bagnell dam hydropower facility with a 60 MW x 2-hr battery energy storage system, the annual benefits can be increased over \$6 million while reducing the annual mileage averaged per turbine and number of start/stops by over 98\% and 85\% respectively.

Chalishazar, Vishvas H.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Considerations for using Privacy Preserving Machine Learning Techniques for Safeguards

In international nuclear safeguards, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is tasked with inspecting and verifying nuclear facilities and their activities. Data analytics and machine learning to support inspections require large amounts of data that nuclear facility operators may consider proprietary or sensitive, so the IAEA may not have full access. Allowing computation over private data without compromising its security therefore has value for safeguards inspections and analysis. Privacy-preserving machine learning (PPML) consists of security-focused techniques that allow data analytics and machine learning algorithms to run on sensitive data without revealing it. This includes ideas like homomorphic encryption (HE), secure multiparty computation (SMPC), and secure enclaves. HE allows algorithms and mathematical operations to be conducted directly on the encrypted data instead of first decrypting it. With SMPC, multiple entities collaboratively compute over distributed data such that no party is able to directly view any others’ original data. Secure enclaves allow computation to take place in a separate and heavily blocked-off section of a CPU. Techniques like these allow for several potential use cases in which the security of data is essential. With SMPC, machine learning models can be trained over the input data from multiple entities, resulting in a model that all users can benefit from without leaking the input data from any particular entity. With SMPC or a zero-knowledge proof (ZKP), an algorithm returning some single answer or truth value can be run on someone else’s data without ever needing to see that data, potentially allowing for verification or proof of some underlying question. HE can allow for outsourcing computation on data to a hostile or untrusted environment. Although most of the research in this field resides within the health and financial domains, tools from PPML may have similar applications in nuclear safeguards. Allowing the IAEA to compute over proprietary information, such as process models and raw sensor data using PPML techniques, provides the baseline for running complex analytics without needing direct unencrypted access to the underlying data, maintaining its privacy. Important limitations to consider for these techniques include the efficiency and level of security required. The security of HE and SMPC come at the cost of speed—the significant amount of overhead means that algorithms implemented in these protocols and encryption schemes are slower than when run on plaintext. Additionally, several important parameters determine what techniques or protocols are used based on the security requirements. SMPC protocols may need to be selected for resistance against a party that attempts to deviate from the protocol to distort the result or gain access to additional information, and a protocol secure against these attacks may further increase the overhead of the algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

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