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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Detection of Extreme Phenomena in the Stable Boundary Layer over the Amazonian Forest

We apply different methods for detection of extreme phenomena (EP) in air-turbulent time series measured in the nocturnal boundary layer above the Amazon forest. The methods used were: (a) a Morlet complex wavelet transform, which is often used in analysis of non-linear application processes. Through the use of the wavelet, it is possible to observe a phase singularity that involves a strong interaction between an extensive range of scales; (b) recurrence plot tests, which were used to identify a sudden change between different stable atmospheric states. (c) statistical analysis of early-warning signals, which verify simultaneous increases in the autocorrelation function and in the variance in the state variable; and (d) analysis of wind speed versus turbulent kinetic energy to identify different turbulent regimes in the stable boundary layer. We found it is adequate to use a threshold to classify the cases of strong turbulence regime, as a result of the occurrence of EP in the tropical atmosphere. All methods used corroborate and indicate synergy between events that culminate in what we classify as EP of the stable boundary layer above the tropical forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Theoretical model for VITA-educed coherent structures in the wall region of a turbulent boundary layer

Experiments on wall-bounded shear flows (channel flows and boundary layers) have indicated that the turbulence in the region close to the wall exhibits a characteristic intermittently formed pattern of coherent structures. For a quantitative study of coherent structures it is necessary to make use of conditional sampling. One particularly successful sampling technique is the Variable Integration Time Averaging technique (VITA) first explored by Blackwelder and Kaplan (1976). In this, an event is assumed to occur when the short time variance exceeds a certain threshold multiple of the mean square signal. The analysis presented removes some assumptions in the earlier models in that the effects of pressure and viscosity are taken into account in an approximation based on the assumption that the near-wall structures are highly elongated in the streamwise direction. The appropriateness of this is suggested by the observations but is also self consistent with the results of the model which show that the streamwise dimension of the structure grows with time, so that the approximation should improve with the age of the structure.

Landahl, Marten T.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A regional rainfall climatology over Mexico and the southwest United States derived from passive microwave and geosynchronous infrared data

A three-year climatology of satellite-estimated rainfall for the warm season for the southwest United States and Mexico has been derived from data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). The microwave data have been stratified by month (June, July, August), year (1988, 1989, 1990), and time of day (morning and evening orbits). A rain algorithm was employed that relates 86-GHz brightness temperatures to rain rate using a coupled cloud-radiative transfer model. Results identify an early evening maximum in rainfall along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental during all three months. A prominent morning rainfall maximum was found off the western Mexican coast near Mazatlan in July and August. Substantial differences between morning and evening estimates were noted. To the extent that three years constitute a climatology, results of interannual variability are presented. Results are compared and contrasted to high-resolution (8 km, hourly) infrared cloud climatologies, which consist of the frequency of occurrence of cloud colder than -38 C and -58 C. This comparison has broad implications for the estimation of rainfall by simple (cloud threshold) techniques. By sampling the infrared data to approximate the time and space resolution of the microwave, we produce ratios (or adjustment factors) by which we can adjust the infrared rain estimation schemes. This produces a combined microwave/infrared rain algorithm for monthly rainfall. Using a limited set of raingage data as ground truth, an improvement (lower bias and root-mean-square error) was demonstrated by this combined technique when compared to either method alone. The diurnal variability of convection during July 1990 was examined using hourly rain estimates from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) precipitation index and the convective stratiform technique, revealing a maximum in estimated rainfall from 1800 to 2100 local time. It is in this time period when the SSM/I evening orbit occurs. A high-resolution topographic database was available to aid in interpreting the influence of topography on the rainfall patterns.

Negri, Andrew J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets

Publication For a thorough description of the methods, see the peer-reviewed paper: Jones, A.D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P. et al. Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather. Sci Data 10, 664 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02485-5 Overview The IM3 / HyperFACETS climate simulations provide 40-year historical (1980-2019) as well as four 80-year future simulations (2020-2099) over the U.S. The future simulations are split into near (2020-2059) and far future (2060-2099) segments. The future scenarios span a range of plausible changes in future climate (both Global Circulation Model (GCM) and Representative Concentration Pathways/Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP/SSP) dimensions). The simulations provide climate variables with high spatiotemporal resolution (25 hourly variables and 207 3-hourly variables at 12 km2). The datasets are generated using dynamical downscaling with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (version 4.2.1) and therefore preserve physical consistency across variables. WRF is a state-of-the-art, fully compressible, non-hydrostatic, mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. WRF is coupled with an urban canopy model (UCM), which resolves urban surfaces. The future scenarios were developed using a thermodynamic global warming approach where past events are replayed under a range of future warming conditions. These scenarios therefore provide a perspective on potential increases in extreme event intensity, geographic scope, and duration, with previously non-extreme conditions potentially crossing new thresholds to be considered extreme by today's standards. This approach is not intended to estimate future changes in extreme event frequency that might result from changes in large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This dataset has NOT been bias corrected. A bias corrected version of selected variables is under development and will be released here when available. Scenarios Files Data for each scenario is provided in weekly NetCDF files. 25 variables are available at hourly resolution, and 207 variables are available at three-hourly resolution. Spatial resolution is 12km and spans the conterminous United States (CONUS), including some areas of Canada and Mexico, resulting in a grid of 424 by 299 cells. The spatial projection is a Lambert Conformal Conic with the following proj-string: "+proj=lcc +lat_0=40.0000076293945 +lon_0=-97 +lat_1=30 +lat_2=45 +x_0=0 +y_0=0 +R=6370000 +units=m +no_defs". The available scenarios and simulation periods are listed below: historical | 1980 - 2019 rcp45cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp45cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp45hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp45hotter | 2060 - 2099 rcp85cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp85cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp85hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp85hotter | 2060 - 2099 * The first year (1979, 2019, and 2059) of data within each scenario represents a model warmup period and should not be used. These are located in the `spinup_files` directory. Historical year 2020 is considered an extra year of data beyond the simulation period and can be found in the `additional_files` directory. For information on specific variables and a more in-depth discussion of methodology, please refer to the data landing page at https://tgw-data.msdlive.org. Delta Warming Files The global and CONUS warming deltas for each scenario are provided in degrees Celsius annually and monthly. Restart Files Yearly restart files are provided for each scenario which can be used to restart the WRF model at a particular point in time. Spinup Files The first year of data within each simulation period represents a model warmup period and should not be used. The files are provided here for the sake of reproducibility. Additional Files Additional years of data are provided as an extension of the historic simulation.

Jones, Andrew D.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Diurnal variability of regional cloud and clear-sky radiative parameters derived from GOES data. I - Analysis method. II - November 1978 cloud distributions. III - November 1978 radiative parameters

Cloud cover is one of the most important variables affecting the earth radiation budget (ERB) and, ultimately, the global climate. The present investigation is concerned with several aspects of the effects of extended cloudiness, taking into account hourly visible and infrared data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satelite (GOES). A methodology called the hybrid bispectral threshold method is developed to extract regional cloud amounts at three levels in the atmosphere, effective cloud-top temperatures, clear-sky temperature and cloud and clear-sky visible reflectance characteristics from GOES data. The diurnal variations are examined in low, middle, high, and total cloudiness determined with this methodology for November 1978. The bulk, broadband radiative properties of the resultant cloud and clear-sky data are estimated to determine the possible effect of the diurnal variability of regional cloudiness on the interpretation of ERB measurements.

Minnis, P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil moisture thresholds explain a shift from light-limited to water-limited sap velocity in the Central Amazon during the 2015–16 El Niño drought

Transpiration is often considered to be light- but not water-limited in humid tropical rainforests due to abundant soil water, even during the dry seasons. The record-breaking 2015–16 El Niño drought provided a unique opportunity to examine whether transpiration is constrained by water under severe lack of rainfall. We measured sap velocity, soil water content, and meteorological variables in an old-growth upland forest in the Central Amazon throughout the 2015–16 drought. We found a rapid decline in sap velocity (-38 ± 21%, mean ± SD.) and in its temporal variability (-88%) during the drought compared to the wet season. Such changes were accompanied by a marked decline in soil moisture and an increase in temperature and vapor pressure deficit. Sap velocity was largely limited by net radiation during the wet and normal dry seasons; however, it shifted to be primarily limited by soil moisture during the drought. The threshold in which sap velocity became dominated by soil moisture was at 0.33 m 3 m -3 (around -150 kPa in soil matric potential), below which sap velocity dropped steeply. Our study provides evidence for a soil water threshold on transpiration in a moist tropical forest, suggesting a shift from light limitation to water limitation under future climate characterized by increased temperature and an increased frequency, intensity, duration and extent of extreme drought events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strong parallel evidence of selection during switchgrass sward establishment in hybrid and lowland ecotypes

Switchgrass sward establishment results in up to 90% seedling mortality. The degree of selection during sward establishment has not been reported using modern genetic methods. Pooled leaf samples were sequenced from replicated swards of 46 half-sib families from two breeding groups (lowland and hybrid) before and through 3 years of stand establishment. Pooled allele frequencies were then assessed using fixation indices (Fst) and an independent data set was used to predict the polygenic impact of establishment selection on two traits (heading date and winter survivorship). Last, the DNA pools were assigned survival rankings to predict the sward survival genomically estimated breeding values within the training data set. Strong and parallel selection occured in both breeding groups. Five genomic regions exceeded the significant threshold of 99.9% in >10 families, indicating consistent selection across families and breeding groups. Polygenic trait predictions determined that establishment selection was partially associated with winter survivorship but resulted in variable heading date alterations. The genomewide variation is consistent with selection for a small number of related parental lines. This study observed strong selection for a small number of hybrid and coastal ecotype individuals which are promising germplasm sources for improved sward survival. This confirms prior reports of sward selection during grassland establishment and highlights the strength of pooled DNA sequencing for survival traits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resistive switching properties of monolayer h-BN atomristors with different electrodes

Resistive switching properties based on molecular beam epitaxy-grown monolayer hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN) atomristors are studied by using metal insulator metal configurations with different electrode materials. Au/monolayer h-BN/Ni devices demonstrate a forming-free bipolar resistive switching (BRS) behavior, a good endurance with up to 97 cycles at a high compliance current of 100 mA, an average on/off ratio of 10 3 , and a low set/reset voltage variability. Metal/monolayer h-BN/graphite/Co devices exhibit self-compliant current BRS characteristics. Both metal/h-BN/Ni and metal/h-BN/graphite/Co devices show the coexistence of BRS, unipolar resistive switching (URS), and nonvolatile threshold switching (TH) modes. The formation of conductive filaments is attributed to the diffusion and trapping of metal ions on the defect sites driven by the electric field, while the rupture is driven by the electric field in BRS and by Joule heating in URS and TH modes.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Insights on seasonal solifluction processes in warm permafrost Arctic landscape using a dense monitoring approach across adjacent hillslopes

Solifluction processes in the Arctic are highly complex, introducing uncertainties in estimating current and future soil carbon storage and fluxes, and assessment of hillslope and infrastructure stability. This study aims to enhance our understanding of triggers and drivers of soil movement of permafrost-affected hillslopes in the Arctic. To achieve this, we established an extensive soil deformation and temperature sensor network, covering 48 locations across multiple hillslopes within a 1 km² watershed on the Seward Peninsula, AK. We report depth-resolved measurements down to 1.8 m depth for May to September 2022, a period conducive to soil movement due to deepening thaw layers and frequent rain events. Over this period, surface movements of up to 334 mm were recorded. In general, these movements occur close to the thawing front, and are initiated as thawing reaches depths of 0.4 to 0.75 m. The largest movements were observed at the top of the south-east facing slope, where soil temperatures are cold (mean annual soil temperatures averaging -1.13°C) and slopes are steeper than 15°. Our analysis highlights three primary factors influencing movements: slope angle, soil thermal conditions, and thaw depth. The latter two significantly impact the generation of pore water pressures at the thaw–freeze interface. Specifically, soil thermal conditions govern the liquid water content, while thaw depth influences both the height of the water column and, consequently, the pressure at the thawing front. These factors affect soil properties, such as cohesion and internal friction angle, which are crucial determinants of slope stability. This underscores the significance of a precise understanding of subsurface thermal conditions, including spatial and temporal variability in soil temperature and thaw depth, when assessing and predicting slope instabilities. Based on our observations, we developed a Factor of Safety proxy that consistently falls below the triggering threshold for all probes exhibiting displacements exceeding 50 mm. This study offers novel insights into patterns and triggers of hillslope movements in the Arctic and provides a venue to evaluate their impact on soil redistribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Maximum Circular Velocity in Halo Occupation Distribution Models to Predict Galaxy Clustering

Abstract Standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) models predict how galaxies occupy halos based on a single property, the virial mass, M vir . To incorporate galaxy assembly bias, we consider alternative halo mass proxies to use in the HOD. A promising replacement is maximum circular velocity, V max , which measures the halo’s potential well, and successfully predicts galaxy clustering in subhalo abundance matching models. We fit galaxy clustering measurements from SDSS DR7 with two modified HODs besides the standard M vir -based model: one where V max is used as the halo property that determines galaxy occupation, and the other adopting an adjustable combination of M vir and V max . Except for the reduced volume M r < − 20 threshold sample fit with V max alone, neither change improves the model performance in predicting the projected two-point correlation function, w p . We conclude that switching the primary variable to V max does not significantly improve the HOD model’s ability to fit galaxy clustering.

Mezini, Lorena↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗
NASA NTRS1985

Gravity Reception and Cardiac Function in the Spider

The following features of the arachnid gravity system were studied. (1) the absolute threshold to hyper-gz is quite low indicating fine proprioreceptive properties of the lyriform organ, the Gz/vibration detector; (2) the neurogenic heart of the spider is a good dependent variable for assessing its behavior to Gz and other stimuli which produce mechanical effects on the exoskeleton; (3) Not only is the cardiac response useful but it is now understood to be an integral part of the system which compensates for the consequences of gravity in the spider (an hydraulic leg extension); and (4) a theoretical model was proposed in which a mechanical amplifier, the leg lever, converts a weak force (at the tarsus) to a strong force (at the patella), capable of compressing the exoskeleton and consequently the lyriform receptor.

Finck, A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Rate-compatible protograph LDPC code families with linear minimum distance

Digital communication coding methods are shown, which generate certain types of low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes built from protographs. A first method creates protographs having the linear minimum distance property and comprising at least one variable node with degree less than 3. A second method creates families of protographs of different rates, all having the linear minimum distance property, and structurally identical for all rates except for a rate-dependent designation of certain variable nodes as transmitted or non-transmitted. A third method creates families of protographs of different rates, all having the linear minimum distance property, and structurally identical for all rates except for a rate-dependent designation of the status of certain variable nodes as non-transmitted or set to zero. LDPC codes built from the protographs created by these methods can simultaneously have low error floors and low iterative decoding thresholds, and families of such codes of different rates can be decoded efficiently using a common decoding architecture.

Divsalar, Dariush↗
NASA NTRS2012

Rate-compatible protograph LDPC code families with linear minimum distance

Digital communication coding methods are shown, which generate certain types of low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes built from protographs. A first method creates protographs having the linear minimum distance property and comprising at least one variable node with degree less than 3. A second method creates families of protographs of different rates, all structurally identical for all rates except for a rate-dependent designation of certain variable nodes as transmitted or non-transmitted. A third method creates families of protographs of different rates, all structurally identical for all rates except for a rate-dependent designation of the status of certain variable nodes as non-transmitted or set to zero. LDPC codes built from the protographs created by these methods can simultaneously have low error floors and low iterative decoding thresholds.

Divsalar, Dariush↗
NASA NTRS2015

Effects of Reduced Strength on Self-Selected Pacing for Long-Duration Activities

Strength and aerobic capacity are predictors of astronaut performance for extravehicular activities (EVA) during exploration missions. It is expected that astronauts will self‐select a pace below their ventilatory threshold (VT). PURPOSE: To determine the percentage of VT that subjects self‐select for prolonged occupational tasks. METHODS: Maximal aerobic capacity and a variety of lower‐body strength and power variables were assessed in 17 subjects who climbed 480 rungs on a ladder ergometer and then completed 10 km on a treadmill as quickly as possible using a self‐selected pace. The tasks were performed on 4 days, with a weighted suit providing 0% (suit fabric only), 40%, 60%, and 80% of additional bodyweight (BW), thereby altering the strength to BW ratio. Oxygen consumption and heart rate were continuously measured. Repeated measures ANOVA and post‐hoc comparisons were performed on the percent of VT values under each suited condition. RESULTS: Subjects consistently self‐paced at or below VT for both tasks and the pace was related to suit weight. At the midpoint for the ladder climb the 80% BW condition elicited the lowest metabolic cost (‐19+/-14% below VT), significantly different than the 0% BW (‐3+/-16%, P=0.002) and the 40% BW conditions (‐5+/-22%, P=0.023). The 60% BW condition (‐13+/-19%) was different than the 40% BW condition (P=0.034). Upon completion of the ladder task there were no differences among the conditions (0%BW: 3+/-18%; 40%BW: 3+/-21%; 60%BW: ‐ 8+/-25%; 80%BW: ‐10+/-18%). All subjects failed to complete 5km at 80%BW. At the midpoint of the treadmill test the three remaining conditions were all significantly different (0%BW: ‐20+/-15%; 40%BW: ‐ 33+/-15%; 60%BW: ‐41+/-19%). Upon completion of the treadmill test the 60% BW condition (‐38+/-12%) was significantly different than the 40% BW (‐28+/-15%, P=0.024). CONCLUSIONS: Decreasing relative strength results in progressive and disproportionate decreases (relative to VT) in self‐selected pacing during long‐duration activities. Thus, during prolonged, endurance‐type activities, large reductions in strength cause notable performance decrements despite no changes in aerobic capacity. These data highlight the importance of both aerobic capacity and muscle strength to the performance of prolonged EVA in exploration mission scenarios.

Buxton, Roxanne E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Atmosphere-Ocean Radiative Transfer: A PACE Mission Perspective

The research frontiers of radiative transfer (RT) in coupled atmosphere-ocean systems are explored to enable new science and specifically to support the upcoming Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite mission. Given (i) the multitude of atmospheric and oceanic constituents at any given moment that each exhibits a large variety of physical and chemical properties and (ii) the diversity of light-matter interactions (scattering, absorption, and emission), tackling all outstanding RT aspects related to interpreting and/or simulating light reflected by atmosphere-ocean systems becomes impossible. Instead, we focus on both theoretical and experimental studies of RT topics important to the science threshold and goal questions of the PACE mission and the measurement capabilities of its instruments. We differentiate between (a) forward (FWD) RT studies that focus mainly on sensitivity to influencing variables and/or simulating data sets, and (b) inverse (INV) RT studies that also involve the retrieval of atmosphere and ocean parameters. Our topics cover (1) the ocean (i.e., water body): absorption and elastic/inelastic scattering by pure water (FWD RT) and models for scattering and absorption by particulates (FWD RT and INV RT); (2) the air-water interface: variations in ocean surface refractive index (INV RT) and in whitecap reflectance (INV RT); (3) the atmosphere: polarimetric and/or hyperspectral remote sensing of aerosols (INV RT) and of gases (FWD RT); and (4) atmosphere-ocean systems: benchmark comparisons, impact of the Earth's sphericity and adjacency effects on space-borne observations, and scattering in the ultraviolet regime (FWD RT). We provide for each topic a summary of past relevant (heritage) work, followed by a discussion (for unresolved questions) and RT updates.

Chowdhary, Jacek↗
NASA NTRS1996

Guidance and Control Design for High-Speed Rollout and Turnoff (ROTO)

A ROTO architecture, braking and steering control law and display designs for a research high speed Rollout and Turnoff (ROTO) system applicable to transport class aircraft are described herein. Minimum surface friction and FMS database requirements are also documented. The control law designs were developed with the aid of a non-real time simulation program incorporating airframe and gear dynamics as well as steering and braking guidance algorithms. An attainable objective of this ROTO system, as seen from the results of this study, is to assure that the studied aircraft can land with runway occupancy times less then 53 seconds. Runway occupancy time is measured from the time the aircraft crosses the runway threshold until its wing tip clears the near side of the runway. Turnoff ground speeds of 70 knots onto 30 degree exits are allowed with dry and wet surface conditions. Simulation time history and statistical data are documented herein. Parameters which were treated as variables in the simulation study include aircraft touchdown weight/speed/location, aircraft CG, runway friction, sensor noise and winds. After further design and development of the ROTO control system beyond the system developed earlier, aft CG MD-11 aircraft no longer require auto-asymmetric braking (steering) and fly-by-wire nose gear steering. However, the auto ROTO nose gear hysteresis must be less than 2 degrees. The 2 sigma dispersion certified for MD-11 CATIIIB is acceptable. Using this longitudinal dispersion, three ROTO exits are recommended at 3300, 4950 and 6750 feet past the runway threshold. The 3300 foot exit is required for MD-81 class aircraft. Designs documented in this report are valid for the assumptions/models used in this simulation. It is believed that the results will apply to the general class of transport aircraft; however further effort is required to validate this assumption for the general case.

Goldthorpe, S. H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗