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Solar cycle variations in IMF intensity

Annual averages of logarithms of hourly interplanetary magnetic field intensities, obtained from geocentric spacecraft between November 1963 and December 1977, reveal the following solar cycle variation. For 2 to 3 years at each solar minimum period, the IMF intensity is depressed by 10-15 percent relative to its mean value realized during a broad nine-year period centered at solar maximum. No systematic variations occur during this nine-year period. The solar minimum decrease, although small relative to variations in some other solar wind parameters, is both statistically and physically significant.

King, J. H.↗

Solar cycle variations in IMF intensity

Annual averages of logarithms of hourly interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) intensities, obtained from geocentric spacecraft between November 1963 and December 1977, reveal the following solar cycle variation. For 2-3 years at each solar minimum period, the IMF intensity is depressed by 10-15% relative to its mean value realized during a broad 9-year period centered at solar maximum. No systematic variations occur during this 9-year period. The solar minimum decrease, although small in relation to variations in some other solar wind parameters, is both statistically and physically significant.

King, J. H.↗

Transport circulation deduced from SAMS trace species data

Three years of zonally averaged N2O and CH4 data from the SAMS instrument on Nimbus 7 are utilized to investigate the annual and semiannual cycles in long-lived tracer mixing ratios. The annual and semiannual variations are shown to be approximately antisymmetric and symmetric about the equator, respectively. Using the first three components of the annual cycle to estimate the time tendency, the tracer continuity equation is solved diagnostically to obtain the effective transport velocity (i.e., the meridional circulation that can produce the observed seasonal variations in the tracer fields). The resulting circulation is qualitatively in agreement with the diabatic circulations computed by other workers, but with equinoctial subsidence in the equatorial upper stratosphere.

Holton, J. R.↗

Excitation of the earth's polar motion due to mass variations in major hydrological reservoirs

The polar motion excitation caused by variations in major natural lakes, the impoundment in artificial reservoirs, and the depletion of a major groundwater aquifer is calculated. It is found that the annual water mass variation in natural lakes contributes a significant fraction in the total hydrological excitation of the annual wobble and that the hydrological reservoirs have been negligible in the Chandler wobble excitation. It is also shown that the contribution of hydrological reservoirs to the total secular polar drift has been negligible in the century due to fortuitous cancellation among reservoirs.

Chao, B. Fong↗

Zonal mean winds in the equatorial mesosphere and lower thermosphere observed by the High Resolution Doppler Imager

This paper presents analyses of mesospheric and lower thermospheric zonal mean winds observed by the High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). Monthly averages of the equatorial zonal mean zonal winds are presented for January 1992 through June 1993. Equatorial zonal winds in the 70-90 km region are dominated by a semiannual oscillation (SAO), ranging from 30 m/s (westerly) to -100 m/s (easterly). At high latitudes the zonal wind variations are predominantly annual. Above 90 km, the low-latitude flow is easterly at all times, punctuated by a small semiannual variation. This behavior may be related to the deposition of momentum by the diurnal tides.

Lieberman, R. S.↗

Global ozone observations from the UARS MLS: An overview of zonal-mean results

Global ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) are presented, in both vertically resolved and column abundance formats. The authors review the zonal-mean ozone variations measured over the two and a half years since launch in September 1991. Well-known features such as the annual and semiannual variations are ubiquitous. In the equatorial regions, longer-term changes are believed to be related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), with a strong semiannual signal above 20 hPa. Ozone values near 50 hPa exhibit an equatorial low from October 1991 to June 1992, after which the low ozone pattern splits into two subtropical lows (possibly in connection with residual circulation changes tied to the QBO) and returns to an equatorial low in September 1993. The ozone hole development at high southern latitudes is apparent in MLS column data integrated down to 100 hPa, the MLS data reinforce current knowledge of this lower-stratospheric phenomenon by providing a height-dependent view of the variations. The region from 30 deg S to 30 deg N (an area equal to half the global area) shows very little change in the ozone column from year to year and within each year. The most striking ozone changes have occurred at northern midlatitudes, with the October 1992 to July 1993 column values significantly lower than during the prior year. The zonal-mean changes manifest themselves as a slower rate of increase during the 1992/93 winter, and there is some evidence for a lower fall minimum. A recovery occurs during late summer of 1993; early 1994 values are significantly larger than during the two previous winters. The timing and latitudinal extent of the northern midlatitude decreases appear to rule out observed ClO enhancements in the Arctic vortex, with related chemical processing and ozone dilution effects, as a unique cause. Local depletion from ClO-related chemical mechanisms alone is also not sufficient, based on MLS ClO data. The puzzling asymmetric nature of the changes probably requires a dynamical component as an explanation. A combination of effects (including chemical destruction via heterogeneous processes and QBO phasing) apparently needs to be invoked. This dataset will place constraints on future modeling studies, which are required to better understand the source of the observed changes.

Froidevaux, Lucien↗

Measurements of Declination at the Helsinki Magnetic-meteorological Observatory 1844-1853

A project was started with the goal of putting into computer readable form all the old unpublished magnetic data at the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), the successor of the Helsinki magnetic-meteorological observatory. Altogether there are available about 2.5 million visual observations of D, H and Z made during the time interval 1844-1905. The first 10 year period (1844-1853) of declination data now converted to electronic form, includes observations made at every tenth minute. The total number of observations is 489,152. We present some examples of declination observations in forms of tables and graphs showing hourly, daily, monthly, and annual means. Secular variations of the declination in 1844-1853 have been extremely linear, showing a steady eastward increase of 8 prime/year that is more than two times larger than the present annual rate of secular change in Finland. The standard deviation of the daily and monthly residuals, after removing the secular variation trend for the whole time period, is about 1 prime, demonstrating the high stability and reliability of the observations. For this reason the data may be suitable for deriving a 3-hour activity index K and daily Ak numbers, giving new information for extending the existing long series of activity characters backwards in time.

Nevanlinna, Heikki↗

Satellite observed long-term averaged seasonal and spatial ozone variations in the stratosphere

Nine years of Nimbus-7 SBUV ozone mixing ratio data (October 1978-September 1987) have been used to analyze the distributions of the long-term average annual and semiannual ozone oscillations in the lower, middle, and upper stratosphere over the region 65 deg S to 65 deg N. It is shown that the derived harmonics are consistent with the result of earlier investigations based on limited sets of data. Year-to-year changes of amplitudes of the annual and semiannual variations are generally small except in the tropical midstratosphere (due to the effect of El Chichon) and the southern subpolar upper stratosphere. Analyses are also presented to show the vertical and seasonal distribution of the zonal ozone variations. It is shown that, for the long-term averaged data, wave 1 is larger during winter than summer and in winter larger in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere. The importance of photochemical and thermal/dynamic processes in modifying the time and zonal variations is discussed.

Perliski, Lori M.↗

The relationship between large-scale vertical motion, highly reflective cloud, and sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific region

Vertical motion fields at 850 mbar over the tropical Pacific region are calculated from the 1963-1973 mean wind fields for 4 months of the year and for October 1972, the peak month in the 1972-1973 El Nino event. These vertical motion fields are derived using the projective separation technique, which has the unique property of separating vertical motion into components due to meridional wind convergence and zonal wind convergence. This separation permits investigation of the response of the Hadley and Walker circulations to annual and interannual variation of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific. The large-scale features of the computed vertical motion fields are in agreement with those of highly reflective clouds, which indicate the locations of deep convection. Examination of the annual cycle of the vertical motion and its components shows no strong variation of the Walker circulation with the east-west gradient of sea surface temperature. On the other hand, a strong correlation is found between meridional overturning in the eastern Pacific and the local equatorial sea surface temperature: during El Nino events, the eastern and central Pacific contribution to the Hadley circulation tends to increase.

Zimmermann, Peter H.↗

Wave Dynamics and Transport in the Stratosphere

The report discusses: (1) Gravity waves generated by tropical convection: A study in which a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model was used to examine the possible role of gravity waves generated by a simulated tropical squall line in forcing the quasi-biennial oscillation was completed. (2) Gravity wave ray tracing studies:It was developed a linear ray tracing model of gravity wave propagation to extend the nonlinear storm model results into the mesosphere and thermosphere. (3) tracer filamentation: Vertical soundings of stratospheric ozone often exhibit laminated tracer structures characterized by strong vertical tracer gradients. (4) Mesospheric gravity wave modeling studies: Although our emphasis in numerical simulation of gravity waves generated by convection has shifted from simulation of idealized two-dimensional squall lines to the most realistic (and complex) study of wave generation by three-dimensional storms. (5) Gravity wave climatology studies: Mr. Alexander applied a linear gravity wave propagation model together with observations of the background wind and stability fields to compute climatologies of gravity wave activity for comparison to observations. (6) Convective forcing of gravity waves: Theoretical study of gravity wave forcing by convective heat sources has completed. (7) Gravity waves observation from UARS: The objective of this work is to apply ray tracing, and other model technique, in order to determine to what extend the horizontal and vertical variation in satellite observed distribution of small-scale temperature variance can be attributed to gravity waves from particular sources. (8) The annual and interannual variations in temperature and mass flux near the tropical tropopause. and (9) Three dimensional cloud model.

Holton, James R.↗

Observations of annual and El Nino thermal and flow variations at 0 deg, 110 deg W and 0 deg, 95 deg W during 1980-1985

The paper describes the low-frequency (i.e., time scales longer than a month) upper ocean (above 250 m) current and temperature moored measurements conducted from March 1980 to September 1985 at 0, 110 deg W and from July 1981 to November 1983 (i.e., including the period of the 1982-1983 El Nino) at 0, 95 deg W. Estimates of the annual cycle were removed from the observations to determine the current and temperature fluctuations due to the 1982-1983 El Nino. The circulation of the upper ocean was found to be dramatically altered during the El Nino: the normally westward flowing surface current in autumn months reversed direction, and the equatorial undercurrent, normally considered to be a permanent feature, disappeared. Associated with the El Nino was a massive redistribution of heat throughout the mixed layer and the thermocline.

Halpern, David↗

Seasonal Variation of Mass Transport Across the Tropopause

The annual cycle of the net mass transport across the extratropical tropopause is examined. Contributions from both the global-scale meridional circulation and the mass variation of the lowermost stratosphere are included. For the northern hemisphere the mass of the lowermost stratosphere has a distinct annual cycle, whereas for the southern hemisphere, the corresponding variation is weak. The net mass transport across the tropopause in the northern hemisphere has a maximum in late spring and a distinct minimum in autumn. This variation and its magnitude compare well with older estimates based on representative Sr-90 mixing ratios. For the southern hemisphere the seasonal cycle of the net mass transport is weaker and follows roughly the annual variation of the net mass flux across a nearby isentropic surface.

Appenzeller, Christof↗

A preliminary evaluation of ocean topography from the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission

We have analyzed 50 ten-day cycles of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimeter data to evaluate the ocean dynamic topography and its temporal variations. We have employed data from both the U.S. and French altimeters along with the NASA precision orbits in this analysis. Errors in the diurnal and semidiurnal components of the Cartwright-Ray tide model have been significantly reduced using a correction developed from a combination of JGM-2 and OSU91A was employed, as well as a geoid model based solely on OSU91A. The long wavelengths of the comparisons to historical data, although geoid error still corrupts the dynamic topography for wavelengths shorter than 2500 km. The root mean square (RMS) variability is similar to previous results from Geosat, with bakground 'noise' approaching 3 cm RMS. The computed annual and semiannual variations are also similar to previous Geosat results, although the hemispheric distribution of the annual heating cycle is much better presented in the T/P results. They also compare reasonably well with the Levitus hydrographic compilation in the northern hemisphere, although the T/P variations generally have larger amplitudes. Ten-day average maps of variations in sea level compare well with simulations measurements at ocean tide gauges, with RMS differences of less than 4 cm and correlations greater than 0.6 for most of the island gauges. Time-longitude plots of these sea level variations at different latitudes in the Pacific clearly show the presence of equatorial Kelvin waves and Rossby waves, with the wave speeds agreeing well with theoretical and observed values. Measurement of variations in global sea level over cycles 2-51 have an RMS variability of 6.3 mm and a rate of change of -3.5 +/- 8 mm/yr, the uncertainty primarily due to insufficient averaging of the interannual and periodic sea level variations. These results show that the accuracy of the T/P measurements of sea level has dramatically improved over previous missions, with estimated time variable errors of 4 cm or less. Although geographically correlated orbit errors have also been reduced to the few centimeter level, further improvement in determinations of the mean dynamic topography will be difficult to obtain until a more accurate model of the marine geoid is available.

Nerem, R. S.↗

On the threshold for triggering substorms

The substorm-neutral-line model of Hones (1984) is extended in order to interpret substorm-related effects that have not previosly been linked to model. It is proposed that the level of stress at which the substorm expansion starts is controlled by the tail field geometry and that substorms most easily initiate when the bending of the magnetotail is most extreme. Using this 'bent-tail' (BT) hypothesis, a new interpretation is developed for the annual and diurnal variations of the level of geomagnetic activity, that are independent of the polarity of the IMF but are due to the BT effect. The BT effect leads to predictions regarding annual and diurnal signatures of substorm occurrence frequency and magnitude that can be tested.

Kivelson, Margaret G.↗

The Relationship of Hydrology in the Green River to Colorado Pikeminnow Populations

The Federally listed Colorado Pikeminnow (CP) (Ptychocheilus Lucius) has been declining in the Green River Basin over the last 20 years. Muth et al. (2000) recommended flows and temperatures to benefit endangered fish species downstream of Flaming Gorge Dam on the Green River. The recommendations identified a range of flows during the base flow period (flows that occur after the annual snowmelt runoff period, usually from early summer to the following spring) that were intended to benefit CP. The recommendations indicated that the mean flow for the summer–winter period should be established each year on the basis of anticipated hydrologic conditions, but adjustments could be made if hydrologic conditions change. Flow should gradually decline from peak flow to base flow, with the base flow reached by early to middle summer (depending on hydrologic conditions) and maintained through February. The rate of decline should depend on rates of decline in Yampa River flows and the recommended rates of decline for dam releases. No specific recommendations were made for base flow variation in Reach 1, but variation around the annual mean base flow should be restricted to achieve recommended levels of variation in Reach 2 (middle Green River) (Table 5.5 in Muth et al. 2000). Implementation of the flow and temperature recommendations served as the proposed action for an EIS on Flaming Gorge Dam operations. A Biological Assessment of the impacts on endangered species of implementing the recommendations was prepared and a Biological Opinion that called for development of a study plan to examine the effects of implementation. Projects to address this evaluation were identified in the Green River Study Plan and have been conducted since then. The purpose of the Study Plan was to identify and recommend to the Recovery Program those monitoring or research projects necessary for implementation and evaluation of the flow and temperature recommendations. Those projects included studies to evaluate the anticipated effects of implementing the recommendations (including potential adverse effects identified in the 2006 Biological Opinion) and studies to examine recognized uncertainties of the recommendations. A new recovery program summer base flow study plan was approved in September of 2020 to evaluate stable and elevated summer base flows below Flaming Gorge Dam intended to benefit CP spawning and rearing success. Anecdotal observations suggest CP production may have been higher in years prior to flow restrictions for endangered fish. Based on long-term CP monitoring data in the Green River, Bestgen and Hill (2016) concluded that CP would benefit from higher summer baseflows (1,700-3,000 ft 3 /sec) with flows above or below associated with lower abundance of age-0 CP. Therefore, flexibility in the ROD is currently being utilized to establish higher stable summer base flows in an attempt create more advantageous conditions for spawning and rearing CP. These fish recovery flows are restrictive to WAPA in the summer months, therefore it is necessary to conduct an analysis of historic river data relationships to CP abundance to better understand if the recommended fish flows (elevated and stable base flows) are necessary for fish recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Time-periodic Variations in Temperature and Wind from Meteorological Rockets and Satellites

Although the Meteorological Rocket Network operated by or in cooperation with th United States has decreased from fourteen to nine stations in the past five years, there have been many observations accumulated in the ten years since CIRA 1972 was prepared with data up to 1969. The mean, annual and semiannual variations of temperature and wind are presented and special attention is directed to the polar semiannual wave. The results are compared with the Oxford SCR-PMR five year data set, the CDC-SCR seven year data, and CIRA 1972 with respect to both temperature and zonal winds, as far as presently available. The agreement among the data sets is very good.

Belmont, A. D.↗

Why do planetary wave number one and the ozone transport vary annually in the Northern Hemisphere and semiannually in the Southern Hemisphere

Evidence is cited from these studies and those of others showing the different nature of the yearly variations of the middle atmospheres of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The Northern Hemisphere middle atmosphere is shown to be characterized by annual variations in planetary wave number one amplitude and the accompanying ozone transports. The Southern Hemisphere middle atmosphere is shown to be characterized by semiannual variations in the amplitude of planetary wave number one and the accompanying ozone transports. The amplitude of wave number two in both hemispheres appears to vary annually. Examination is made of the nature of the planetary wave forcing in both hemispheres as well as the planetary wave propagation characteristics in both hemispheres in an attempt to better understand this.

Geller, M. A.↗

Global ozone long-term trends from satellite measurements and the response to solar activity variations

Analysis of global ozone variations for the period April 1970 to December 1975 was performed by using the reprocessed Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) measurements of total ozone. A correlation coefficient of 0.97 is found between the 6-month running mean of global mean total ozone (filtered for mean semiannual, annual, and quasibiennial variations) and the 10.7-cm solar activity index. Correcting ozone for a time-dependent latitudinal bias relative to Dobson ozone measurements reduces to 2-3% the global mean ozone variation over the solar cycle. The solar ultraviolet variability required in a one-dimensional time-dependent radiative photochemical model to account for the observed ozone variation appears to be consistent with recent solar UV observations.

Keating, G. M.↗