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DOE OSTI2022

Dust-planetary boundary layer interactions amplified by entrainment and advections

Mineral dust contributes to more than half of the global aerosol loading. However, the radiative impacts of dust aerosols on planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure have not been explored sufficiently. During a typical dust storm event over Tarim Basin, dust aerosols exhibit a well-mixed distribution during the daytime in spite of a shallow layer of dust particles accumulated at higher altitudes. By contrast, nocturnal dust plumes are located near the surface due to stable stratification. We demonstrate that these differentiated vertical distributions determine the spatial heterogeneity of dust loading, radiative fluxes and PBL height variations. Dust aerosols cause daytime PBL suppression and nighttime PBL promotion through modulating surface and atmospheric radiative budgets. Specifically, dust-induced cooling effect within PBL directly inhibits the daytime PBL development. PBL suppression effect is then amplified by entrainment processes resulting in excessively low PBL height, especially for dust particles below but near the PBL top. Dust plumes weaken updrafts from PBL and downdrafts of the free atmosphere, which further reduce the entrainment mixing through attenuating horizontal and vertical advection, and eventually amplify PBL suppression. At night, near-surface dust aerosols stimulate a warm and unstable lower atmosphere, generate warm advection heating and promote the PBL development. Our study highlights the importance of specifying entrainment parameters and nighttime advection activities in quantifying the dust-PBL interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tethered balloon measurements reveal enhanced aerosol occurrence aloft interacting with Arctic low-level clouds

Low-level clouds in the Arctic affect the surface energy budget and vertical transport of heat and moisture. The limited availability of cloud-droplet-forming aerosol particles strongly impacts cloud properties and lifetime. Vertical particle distributions are required to study aerosol–cloud interaction over sea ice comprehensively. This article presents vertically resolved measurements of aerosol particle number concentrations and sizes using tethered balloons. The data were collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition in the summer of 2020. Thirty-four profiles of aerosol particle number concentration were observed in 2 particle size ranges: 12–150 nm (N 12−150 ) and above 150 nm (N >150 ). Concurrent balloon-borne meteorological measurements provided context for the continuous profiles through the cloudy atmospheric boundary layer. Radiosoundings, cloud remote sensing data, and 5-day back trajectories supplemented the analysis. The majority of aerosol profiles showed more particles above the lowest temperature inversion, on average, double the number concentration compared to below. Increased N 12−150 up to 3,000 cm −3 were observed in the free troposphere above low-level clouds related to secondary particle formation. Long-range transport of pollution increased N >150 to 310 cm −3 in a warm, moist air mass. Droplet activation inside clouds caused reductions of N >150 by up to 100%, while the decrease in N 12−150 was less than 50%. When low-level clouds were thermodynamically coupled with the surface, profiles showed 5 times higher values of N 12−150 in the free troposphere than below the cloud-capping temperature inversion. Enhanced N 12−150 and N >150 interacting with clouds were advected above the lowest inversion from beyond the sea ice edge when clouds were decoupled from the surface. Vertically discontinuous aerosol profiles below decoupled clouds suggest that particles emitted at the surface are not transported to clouds in these conditions. It is concluded that the cloud-surface coupling state and free tropospheric particle abundance are crucial when assessing the aerosol budget for Arctic low-level clouds over sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying the impacts of atmospheric rivers on the surface energy budget of the Arctic based on reanalysis

We present a comprehensive analysis of Arctic surface energy budget (SEB) components during atmospheric river (AR) events identified by integrated water vapor transport exceeding the monthly 85th-percentile climatological threshold in 3-hourly ERA5 reanalysis data from January 1980 to December 2019. Analysis of average anomalies in SEB components, net SEB, and the overall AR contribution to both the seasonal SEB components and net SEB climatology reveals clear seasonality and distinct land–sea–sea ice contrast patterns. Over the sea-ice-covered central Arctic Ocean, ARs significantly impact net SEB, inducing substantial surface warming in fall, winter, and spring. This warming is primarily driven by large anomalies in surface downward longwave radiation (LWD), which average 29–45 W m −2 during the cold seasons. In contrast, AR-related LWD anomalies are smaller in summer, averaging around 15 W m −2 , indicating a reduced impact during this season. Over sub-polar oceans, ARs have the most substantial positive impact on net SEB in cold seasons, mainly attributed to significant positive turbulent heat flux anomalies. AR-related turbulent heat anomalies reduce the upward turbulent flux, contributing up to −11 % relative to its seasonal climatology. In summer, ARs induce negative impacts on net SEB, primarily due to reduced shortwave radiation from increased cloud cover during AR events. Over continents, ARs generate smaller absolute impacts on net SEB because the large LWD anomalies are largely offset by corresponding increases in upward longwave radiation, particularly during cold seasons. Additionally, the seemingly large relative contributions of ARs to the net SEB over land primarily reflects the small magnitude of the climatological net SEB over continents. Greenland, especially western Greenland, exhibits significant downward longwave radiation anomalies associated with ARs, which drive large net SEB anomalies and contribute >54 % to mean SEB and induce amplified surface warming year-round. This holds significance for melt events, particularly during summer. Additionally, results of AR-related SEB impacts strongly depend on detection methods, as restrictive AR detection algorithms that emphasize extreme AR events, with large AR-related anomalies, do not necessarily indicate a large overall contribution to the SEB climatology due to the low occurrence frequency of these events. This study quantifies the role of ARs in the surface energy budget, contributing to our understanding of the Arctic warming and sea ice decline in ongoing Arctic amplification.

Arctic Sea ice change↗

NASA NTRS2011

Major Characteristics of Southern Ocean Cloud Regimes and Their Effects on the Energy Budget

Clouds over the Southern Ocean are often poorly represented by climate models, but they make a significant contribution to the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation balance, particularly in the shortwave portion of the energy spectrum. This study seeks to better quantify the organization and structure of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude clouds by combining measurements from active and passive satellite-based datasets. Geostationary and polar-orbiter satellite data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) are used to quantify large-scale, recurring modes of cloudiness, and active observations from CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) are used to examine vertical structure, radiative heating rates, and precipitation associated with these clouds. It is found that cloud systems are organized into eight distinct regimes and that ISCCP overestimates the midlevel cloudiness of these regimes. All regimes contain a relatively high occurrence of low cloud, with 79%of all cloud layers observed having tops below 3 km, but multiple-layered clouds systems are present in approximately 34% of observed cloud profiles. The spatial distribution of regimes varies according to season, with cloud systems being geometrically thicker, on average, during the austral winter. Those regimes found to be most closely associated with midlatitude cyclones produce precipitation the most frequently, although drizzle is extremely common in low-cloud regimes. The regimes associated with cyclones have the highest in-regime shortwave cloud radiative effect at the TOA, but the low-cloud regimes, by virtue of their high frequency of occurrence over the oceans, dominate both TOA and surface shortwave effects in this region as a whole.

Haynes, John M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Differences Between ERBE and CERES Tropical Means Fluxes: ENSO, Climate Change of Calibration?

Verner E. Soumi was the father of radiation budget measurements from space. He directed the team at the University of Wisconsin that developed the first radiation budget measurements on the Iota (Explorer VII) coverage) spacecraft in 1959. The first data published was from hand calculations of night-time long-wave fluxes, with absolute accuracy estimated as better than 10 percent, and the data shown as hand drawn maps with lines of equal "long-wave radiation loss, in Langleys per minute X 10(exp -3) (isolangleys)". The first comparisons of the new radiation data with nephanalyses showed that clouds dominated the radiation patterns. Soumi immediately proposed using the radiation fields to help understand the atmospheric heat sources necessary to drive the atmospheric circulation. This early work already pointed to the relationship between the outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere and the vertical flux divergence of infrared radiation within the atmosphere. In the next 30 years, global satellite observations of the radiation balance of the planet have advanced both in accuracy, stability, and in their ability to address cause and effect in the climate system. The purpose of the present paper is to examine early results of the new Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data on Tropical Rainfall Measuring System (TRMM) which started data collection in January, 1998. CERES is a direct descendant of the legacy of Soumi's foresight on understanding the global energetics using satellite observations of broadband radiation.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Precipitation Processes Developed During ARM (1997), TOGA COARE (1992) GATE (1974), SCSMEX (1998), and KWAJEX (1999): Consistent 3D, Semi-3D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D) have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. IN these 3D simulators, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical clouds systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and at NASA Goddard Space Center. At Goddard, a 3D cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE, GATE, SCSMEX, ARM, and KWAJEX using a 512 by 512 km domain (with 2-km resolution). The result indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are very similar between the 2D and 3D GCE model simulation. The major objective of this paper are: (1) to assess the performance of the super-parametrization technique, (2) calculate and examine the surface energy (especially radiation) and water budget, and (3) identify the differences and similarities in the organization and entrainment rates of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems.

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Differences between ERBE and CERES Tropical Mean Fluxes: ENSO, Climate Change or Calibration?

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Influence of Soil Moisture and Wind on Rainfall Distribution and Intensity in Florida

Land surface processes play a key role in water and energy budgets of the hydrological cycle. For example, the distribution of soil moisture will affect sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn may dramatically influence the location and intensity of precipitation. However, mean wind conditions also strongly influence the distribution of precipitation. The relative importance of soil moisture and wind on rainfall location and intensity remains uncertain. Here, we examine the influence of soil moisture distribution and wind distribution on precipitation in the Florida peninsula using the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model Coupled with the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. This study utilizes data collected on 27 July 1991 in central Florida during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). The idealized numerical experiments consider a block of land (the Florida peninsula) bordered on the east and on the west by ocean. The initial soil moisture distribution is derived from an offline PLACE simulation, and the initial environmental wind profile is determined from the CaPE sounding network. Using the factor separation technique, the precise contribution of soil moisture and wind to rainfall distribution and intensity is determined.

Baker, R. David↗

NASA NTRS2007

Spectral Retrieval of Latent Heating Profiles from TRMM PR data: Moistening Estimates over Tropical Ocean Regions - Part 3

The global hydrological cycle is central to the Earth's climate system, with rainfall and the physics of precipitation formation acting as the key links in the cycle. Two-thirds of global rainfall occurs in the tropics with the associated latent heating (LH) accounting for threefourths of the total heat energy available to the Earth's atmosphere. In the last decade, it has been established that standard products of LH from satellite measurements, particularly TRMM measurements, would be a valuable resource for scientific research and applications. Such products would enable new insights and investigations concerning the complexities of convection system life cycles, the diabatic heating controls and feedbacks related to rne-sosynoptic circulations and their forecasting, the relationship of tropical patterns of LH to the global circulation and climate, and strategies for improving cloud parameterizations In environmental prediction models. However, the LH and water vapor profile or budget (called the apparent moisture sink, or Q2) is closely related. This paper presented the development of an algorithm for retrieving Q2 using 'TRMM precipitation radar. Since there is no direct measurement of LH and Q2, the validation of algorithm usually applies a method called consistency check. Consistency checking involving Cloud Resolving Model (CRM)-generated LH and 42 profiles and algorithm-reconstructed is a useful step in evaluating the performance of a given algorithm. In this process, the CRM simulation of a time-dependent precipitation process (multiple-day time series) is used to obtain the required input parameters for a given algorithm. The algorithm is then used to "~econsti-LKt~h"e heating and moisture profiles that the CRM simulation originally produced, and finally both sets of conformal estimates (model and algorithm) are compared each other. The results indicate that discrepancies between the reconstructed and CM-simulated profiles for Q2, especially at low levels, are larger than those for latent heat. Larger discrepancies in Q2 at low levels are due to moistening for non-precipitating region that algorithm cannot reconstruct. Nevertheless, the algorithm-reconstructed total Q2 profiles are in good agreement with the CRM-simulated ones.

Shige, S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Closing the Seasonal Ocean Surface Temperature Balance in the Eastern Tropical Oceans from Remote Sensing and Model Reanalyses

The Eastern tropical ocean basins are regions of significant atmosphere-ocean interaction and are important to variability across subseasonal to decadal time scales. The numerous physical processes at play in these areas strain the abilities of coupled general circulation models to accurately reproduce observed upper ocean variability. Furthermore, limitations in the observing system of important terms in the surface temperature balance (e.g., turbulent and radiative heat fluxes, advection) introduce uncertainty into the analyses of processes controlling sea surface temperature variability. This study presents recent efforts to close the surface temperature balance through estimation of the terms in the mixed layer temperature budget using state-of-the-art remotely sensed and model-reanalysis derived products. A set of twelve net heat flux estimates constructed using combinations of radiative and turbulent heat flux products - including GEWEX-SRB, ISCCP-SRF, OAFlux, SeaFlux, among several others - are used with estimates of oceanic advection, entrainment, and mixed layer depth variability to investigate the seasonal variability of ocean surface temperatures. Particular emphasis is placed on how well the upper ocean temperature balance is, or is not, closed on these scales using the current generation of observational and model reanalysis products. That is, the magnitudes and spatial variability of residual imbalances are addressed. These residuals are placed into context within the current uncertainties of the surface net heat fluxes and the role of the mixed layer depth variability in scaling the impact of those uncertainties, particularly in the shallow mixed layers of the Eastern tropical ocean basins.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

NASA NTRS1992

Ocean-atmospheric linkages

This chapter focuses on the role of the ocean in the global carbon cycle on the time scale of decades to centuries. The input rate of CO2 to the atmosphere due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation has continued to increase over the last century. To balance the global carbon budget, a sink is required whose magnitude is changing on similar time scales. We have sought to identify aspects of the ocean system that are capable of responding on decadal time scales, to examine our present ability to model such changes, and to pinpoint ways in which this ability could be improved. Many other important aspects of the ocean's role in global change are not addressed, including the importance of oceanic heat transport and thermal inertia to the climate system, biogeochemical cycling of elements other than carbon, and the importance of the ocean as a source or sink of trace gases.

Rintoul, Stephen R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Regolith-Derived Heat Shield for Planetary Body Entry and Descent System with In Situ Fabrication

In this paper we will discuss a new mass-efficient and innovative way of protecting high-mass spacecraft during planetary Entry, Descent & Landing (EDL). Heat shields fabricated in situ can provide a thermal-protection system (TPS) for spacecraft that routinely enter a planetary atmosphere. By fabricating the heat shield with space resources from regolith materials available on moons and asteroids, it is possible to avoid launching the heat-shield mass from Earth. Three regolith processing and manufacturing methods will be discussed: 1) oxygen & metal extraction ISRU processes produce glassy melts enriched in alumina and titania, processed to obtain variable density, high melting point and heat-resistance; 2) compression and sintering of the regolith yield low density materials; 3) in-situ derived high-temperature polymers are created to bind regolith particles together, with a lower energy budget.

Hogue, Michael D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal delay of Sahelian rainfall driven by an east–west contrast in radiative forcing in idealized CESM experiments

Recent studies suggest the observed seasonal delay of rainfall over the Sahel is mainly driven by anthropogenic aerosol forcing, which features a robust east–west contrasting changes in recent decades, with negative and positive top-of-the-atmosphere shortwave radiative forcing in South and East Asia (SA&EA) and in North America and Europe (NA&EU), respectively. Their individual effects on the Sahel rainfall annual cycle remain unclear. Here, by designing idealized sensitivity experiments based on Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2), we show that both negative radiative forcing over SA&EA and positive radiative forcing over NA&EU contribute to the delayed phase and enhanced amplitude of Sahel rainfall annual cycle. To understand the underlying physical processes, both the convective quasi-equilibrium (CQE) and atmospheric energetic frameworks are utilized. Both frameworks can well explain the seasonal delay in the rainfall annual cycle over the Sahel under the regional radiative forcings, with the CQE framework showing stronger explanatory power. Based on the insights from both frameworks, we conducted a moisture budget analysis and found that the negative radiative forcing over SA&EA causes an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation, which transports more moisture to the Sahel. As the anomalous anticyclone is stronger in summer and fall compared to spring, rainfall is delayed in the Sahel. Further, under the influence of the positive radiative forcing over NA&EU, more warming in the northern hemisphere causes northward transport of moisture to the northern tropics associated with the cross-equatorial transport of energy. The moisture transport increases relativehumidity over the Sahel and enhances the effective atmospheric heat capacity that delays the seasonal rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Water Balance Representation in Urban‐PLUMBER Land Surface Models

Abstract Urban Land Surface Models (ULSMs) simulate energy and water exchanges between the urban surface and atmosphere. However, earlier systematic ULSM comparison projects assessed the energy balance but ignored the water balance, which is coupled to the energy balance. Here, we analyze the water balance representation in 19 ULSMs participating in the Urban‐PLUMBER project using results for 20 sites spread across a range of climates and urban form characteristics. As observations for most water fluxes are unavailable, we examine the water balance closure, flux timing, and magnitude with a score derived from seven indicators expecting better scoring models to capture the latent heat flux more accurately. We find that the water budget is only closed in 57% of the model‐site combinations assuming closure when annual total incoming fluxes (precipitation and irrigation) fluxes are within 3% of the outgoing (all other) fluxes. Results show the timing is better captured than magnitude. No ULSM has passed all water balance indicators for any site. Models passing more indicators do not capture the latent heat flux more accurately refuting our hypothesis. While output reporting inconsistencies may have negatively affected model performance, our results indicate models could be improved by explicitly verifying water balance closure and revising runoff parameterizations. By expanding ULSM evaluation to the water balance and related to latent heat flux performance, we demonstrate the benefits of evaluating processes with direct feedback mechanisms to the processes of interest.

Jongen, H. J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Evaluation of upwelling infrared radiance in a nonequilibrium nonhomogeneous atmosphere

The influence of vibrational nonequilibrium upon upwelling infrared radiance from the earth's atmosphere is investigated. By employing the line-by-line model for spectral absorption, heating rates and upwelling radiances are calculated for equilibrium and nonequilibrium conditions in the spectral range of 4.7 micron CO and 3.3 micron CH4 bands. Heating rates are calculated also for the 15 micron CO2 band and are compared with other available results in the literature. For the spectral range of the CO fundamental band, the influence of different parameters on the upwelling radiance is investigated. It is found that for CO the assumption of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) is not justified at tropospheric temperatures and pressures. If the resonance effects of CO-N2 collisions are considered, then the assumption of LTE is justified up to 60 kilometers. This information is very useful for measurement of atmospheric pollutants, earth radiation budget studies and climate modeling, and infrared signature works.

Tiwari, S. N.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Quantitative Assessment of the Integrated Response in Global Heat and Moisture Budgets to Changing Solar Irradiance

Earlier, we found time sequences of basin- and global-average upper ocean temperature (that is, diabatic heat storage above the main pycnocline) for 40 years from 1955-1994 and of sea surface temperature for 95 years from 1900-1994 associated with changes in the Sun's radiative forcing on decadal and interdecadal timescales, lagging by 10 deg.- 30 deg. of phase and confined to the upper 60-120 m. Yet, the observed changes in upper ocean temperature (approx. 0.1 K) were approximately twice those expected from the Stefan-Boltzmann black-body radiation law for the Earth's surface, with phase lags (0 deg. to 30 deg. of phase) much shorter than the 90 deg. phase shift expected as well. Moreover, White et al. (1997, 1998) found the Earth's global decadal mode in covarying SST and SLP anomalies phase locked to the decadal signal in the Sun's irradiance. Yet, Allan (2000) found this decadal signal also characterized by patterns similar to those observed on biennial and interannual time scales; that is, the Troposphere Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and the El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This suggested that small changes in the Sun's total irradiance could excite this global decadal mode in the Earth's ocean-atmosphere-terrestrial system similar to those excited internally on biennial and interannual period scales. This is a significant finding, proving that energy budget models (that is, models based on globally-averaged radiation balances) yield unrealistic responses. Thus, the true response must include positive and negative feedbacks in the Earth's ocean-atmosphere-terrestrial system as its internal mode (that is, the natural mode of the system) respond in damped resonance to quasi-periodic decadal changes in the Sun's irradiance. Moreover, these responses are not much different from those occurring internally on biennial and interannual period scales.

White, Warren B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A model for the evolution of CO2 on Mars

We have constructed a model that predicts the evolution of CO2 on Mars from the end of the heavy bombardment period to the present. The model draws on published estimates of the main processes believed to affect the fate of CO2 during this period: chemical weathering, regolith uptake, polar cap formation, and atmospheric escape. Except for escape, the rate at which these processes act is controlled by surface temperatures which we calculate using a modified version of the Gierasch and Toon energy balance model. The modifications account for the change in solar luminosity with time, the greenhouse effect, and a polar and equatorial energy budget. Using published estimates for the main parameters, we find no evolutionary scenario in which CO2 is capable of producing a warm (global mean temperatures greater than 250 K) and wet (surface pressures greater than 30 mbar) early climate, and then evolves to present conditions with approximately 7 mbar in the atmosphere, less than 300 mbar in the regolith, and less than 5 mbar in the caps. Such scenarios would only exist if the early sun were brighter than standard solar models suggest, if greenhouse gases other than CO2 were present in the early atmosphere, or if the polar albedo were significantly lower than 0.75. However, these scenarios generally require the storage of large amounts of CO2 (greater than 1 bar) in the carbonate reservoir. If the warm and wet early Mars constraint is relaxed, then we find best overall agreement with present day reservoirs for initial CO2 inventories of 0.5-1.0 bar. We also find that the polar caps can have a profound effect on how the system evolves. If the initial amount of CO2 is less than some critical value, then there is not enough heating of the poles to prevent permanent caps from forming. Once formed, these caps control how the system evolves, because they set the surface pressure and, hence, the thermal environment. If the initial amount of CO2 is greater than this critical value, then caps do not form initially, but can form later on, when weathering and escape lower the surface pressure to a point at which polar heating is no longer sufficient to prevent cap formation and the collapse of the climate system. Our modeling suggests this critical initial amount of CO2 is between 1 and 2 bar, but its true value will depend on all factors affecting the polar heat budget.

Haberle, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗