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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15

Graphically Contracted Function Construction with the Recursive Pairwise Merge Algorithm

A new implementation of a recursive pairwise merge algorithm to construct a GCF from a list of CSF expansion coefficients is presented. The essential new feature is the preallocation of some work arrays used within the intermediate steps of the merge procedure. This results in roughly an order of magnitude improvement in overall efficiency and also approximately eliminates a factor of n, the molecular orbital dimension, from the original implementation. Initial application of this merge procedure to a series of H m molecules shows that the GCF wave functions can be represented well both with delocalized canonical Hartree-Fock orbitals and with localized molecular orbitals. Finally, for a given wave function complexity, as measured by the average facet count, $\bar{\text {f}}$, the delocalized Hartree-Fock orbitals show smaller errors for small $\bar{\text {f}}$ values, while the localized orbitals show smaller errors for larger $\bar{\text {f}}$ values.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Relativistic corrections for lepton-nucleus scattering in the short-time approximation

Here, we present an approach for including relativistic corrections in lepton-nucleus scattering calculations within the short-time approximation (STA). Previous ab initio studies employed electromagnetic currents expanded in powers of 𝑞/𝑚, where 𝑞 is the momentum transfer and 𝑚 is the nucleon mass, restricting their validity to low-𝑞 kinematics. We adopt an expansion scheme that treats the initial nucleon momentum perturbatively while allowing for arbitrary momentum transfer, thereby extending the applicability of the STA to high-𝑞 regimes. Additionally, we incorporate a relativistic treatment of the two-nucleon final-state energies. Calculations for 3 He and 4 He inclusive electron-scattering cross sections show a substantial improvement over previous results, achieving good agreement with experimental data in the quasi-elastic region for both low- and high-momentum transfer.

Andreoli, Lorenzo [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, VA↗

Quantifying the impact of precision errors on quantum approximate optimization algorithms

The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) is a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm that seeks to achieve approximate solutions to optimization problems by iteratively alternating between intervals of controlled quantum evolution. Here, we examine the effect of analog precision errors on QAOA performance from the perspective of both algorithmic training and performance guarantees. Leveraging cumulant expansions, we recast the faulty QAOA as a control problem in which precision errors are expressed as multiplicative control noise and derive bounds on the performance of QAOA. We show using both analytical techniques and numerical simulations that fixed precision implementations of QAOA circuits are subject to an exponential degradation in performance dependent upon the number of optimal QAOA layers and magnitude of the precision error. Despite this significant reduction, we show that it is possible to mitigate precision errors in QAOA via digitization of the variational parameters at the cost of increasing circuit depth.

quantum algorithms↗

Annual Summary Report (FY 2025) Performance Assessment for the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility

Beginning in 1996, the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF) started accepting low-level radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes that were generated during cleanup activities at the Hanford Site. ERDF is composed of a series of cells or disposal areas and can accommodate future design expansions as needed. Currently, there are eight cells and two supercells in ERDF. Each supercell is the equivalent of two cells. During this reporting period, fiscal year (FY) 2025, extending from October 1, 2024, through September 30, 2025, approximately 50,653 metric tons (55,835 U.S. tons) of waste was disposed at ERDF. From ERDF inception through September 30, 2025, approximately 17.3 million metric tons (19.1 million U.S. tons) of waste has been disposed at ERDF, which equates to consumption of approximately 91.0% of the currently constructed disposal volume. According to the design of ERDF, the facility has the ability to be expanded as needed. In 2023, the Department of Energy approved the construction of supercell 11 to provide additional disposal capacity to meet the cleanup mission at the Hanford Site. The construction of supercell 11 began in FY 2025, and it is expected to take up to two years. Construction of the new cell will not affect ongoing waste disposal activities at ERDF.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Accelerating Multivariate Functional Approximation Computation with Domain Decomposition Techniques⋆

Modeling large datasets through Multivariate Functional Approximations (MFA) provide an elegant way to handle many visualization and scientific analysis workflows. The process necessitates scalable data partitioning methods to compute MFA representations efficiently without compromising the accuracy or continuity of the reconstructed solution. We propose a domain -decomposed method for computing the MFA with B -spline bases, which reduces the total work per task and uses a restricted Additive Schwarz (RAS) method to converge the control point data degrees -of -freedom along subdomain boundaries. We provide an in-depth analysis of the parallel approach with domain decomposition solvers, aiming to minimize local subdomain error residuals and recover high -order continuity at subdomain interfaces with appropriate choices of knot overlaps. The communication cost, determined by the overlap regions in the RAS implementation, is optimized to recover the numerical error profile of the single subdomain case. Our proposed method stands in contrast to previous methods, which typically only recover either C 0 or at best C 1 continuity for arbitrary B -spline degree expansions, or those that require post -processing to blend discontinuities in the reconstructed data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using analytical and real -world datasets in 1D, 2D, and 3D through both strong and weak scaling studies. The performance results indicate that the overall cost of computing the approximation is directly proportional to the underlying nearest -neighbor communication implementation, and is only weakly dependent on the overlap region size that determines the size of the messages. This finding underscores the efficiency and scalability of our proposed method, making it a promising solution for handling large datasets in scientific workflows.

additive Schwarz solvers↗

Bayesian model updating with finite element vs surrogate models: Application to a miter gate structural system

Bayesian finite element (FE) model updating using direct model evaluations of large-scale high-fidelity FE models is extremely computationally expensive. Surrogate models can be used as fast emulators of FE models to accelerate the model calibration process. The physics/mechanics-based FE models are still the underpinning behind the surrogate models. Here, this paper evaluates the loss in accuracy and the gain in computational time while performing Bayesian model updating by using surrogate model evaluations compared to using direct FE model evaluations. This evaluation is crucial before entirely relying on surrogate models in model updating for structural health monitoring (SHM) and damage prognosis (DP) purposes. This paper also demonstrates Bayesian updating and surrogate model construction of large-scale high-fidelity FE models of infrastructure systems. In this regard, the miter gate structural system is considered as the testbed structure. Three predominant damage modes (loss of contact between gate and wall, loss of thickness due to corrosion, and loss of tension in the diagonal rods) are considered for model updating purposes. Bayesian model updating is performed using direct FE evaluations by leveraging parallel computing. Two types of surrogates, namely polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and Gaussian process regression (GPR), are developed for the miter gate. Model updating is performed again using the trained surrogate models, and the updating results are compared with their counterparts obtained using the direct FE evaluation results. The posterior distribution of the FE model parameters obtained using the trained surrogates are sufficiently accurate with respect to the posterior obtained utilizing the direct FE evaluations. In addition, an approximate 4-fold decrease in the computational time was observed when using surrogate model evaluations instead of direct FE evaluations for model updating.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Extending the Gutzwiller approximation to intersite interactions

In this work, we develop an extension of the Gutzwiller approximation (GA) formalism that includes the effects of Coulomb interactions of arbitrary range (including density density, exchange, pair hopping, and Coulomb-assisted hopping terms). This formalism reduces to the ordinary GA formalism for the multiband Hubbard models in the presence of only local interactions. This is accomplished by combining the 1 / z expansion—where z is the coordination number, and only the leading-order terms contribute in the limit of infinite dimensions—with a P R † P R - I expansion, where P R is the Gutzwiller projector on the site R . Furthermore, the method is conveniently formulated in terms of a Gutzwiller Lagrange function. We apply our theory to the extended single-band Hubbard model. Similarly to the usual Brinkman-Rice mechanism, we find a Mott transition. A valence skipping transition is observed, where the occupation of the empty and doubly occupied states for the Gutzwiller wave function is enhanced with respect to the uncorrelated Slater determinant wave function.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A theoretical model for sheath dynamics in the two-plasma mode of a cylindrical filament discharge

We present a refined understanding of cylindrical plasma-facing emitter cathodes by examining the limitations of the conventional space charge limited model, which overlooks ion trapping dynamics within the virtual cathode. While conventional theory distinguishes between temperature-limited and space charge limited regimes based on electron current constraints, our findings reveal that trapped ions can form a quasi-neutral “second plasma,” expanding upstream and interacting with the primary plasma. In cylindrical and other non-planar geometries, an expanding trapped-ions layer produces current enhancement by converting more of the emitted electron flux to passing flux. The current enhancement leads to a complex coupling between the trapped-ions plasma and upstream plasma through ionizing collisions in the upstream region and charge exchange collisions in the virtual cathode. The coupling results in mutual density enhancement and at the same time, antagonistic expansion dynamics between the two plasma layers. The process is understood using a new “aid-compete” model. Numerical solutions, validated against simulations, reveal the model's capacity to predict system evolution and complex discharge behaviors, albeit with qualitative approximations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Femtoscopic correlations of identical charged pions and kaons in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with event-shape selection

Collective behavior has been observed in high-energy heavy-ion collisions for several decades. Collectivity is driven by the high particle multiplicities that are produced in these collisions. At the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC), features of collectivity have also been seen in high-multiplicity proton-proton collisions that can attain particle multiplicities comparable to peripheral Pb-Pb collisions. One of the possible signatures of collective behavior is the decrease of femtoscopic radii extracted from pion and kaon pairs emitted from high-multiplicity collisions with increasing pair transverse momentum. This decrease can be described in terms of an approximate transverse mass scaling. In the present work, femtoscopic analyses are carried out by the ALICE Collaboration on charged pion and kaon pairs produced in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$=13TeV from the LHC to study possible collectivity in pp collisions. The event-shape analysis method based on transverse sphericity is used to select for spherical versus jetlike events, and the effects of this selection on the femtoscopic radii for both charged pion and kaon pairs are studied. This is the first time this selection method has been applied to charged kaon pairs. An approximate transverse-mass scaling of the radii is found in all multiplicity ranges studied when the difference in the Lorentz boost for pions and kaons is taken into account. This observation does not support the hypothesis of collective expansion of hot and dense matter that should only occur in high-multiplicity events. A possible alternate explanation of the present results is based on a scenario of common emission conditions for pions and kaons in pp collisions for the multiplicity ranges studied.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Advanced sorbents for modular oxygen production for REMS gasifiers

Under a DOE funded effort, Thermosolv LLC has been developing a sorbent-based oxygen production technology for gasification and oxy-combustion applications. The sorbents utilize oxygen-storage properties of certain perovskites to (1) selectively adsorb oxygen at moderate temperature from compressed air and (2) release the adsorbed oxygen into a vacuum or a sweep gas such as CO2 and/or steam. Through cyclic operations of multiple sorbent beds such a process can be made continuous. Pressure drop across the sorbent bed and other similar design considerations dictate that the sorbent be in the form of a high surface-area-to-volume pellet and yet still possess sufficient crush strength and integrity. Process efficiency is determined by the sorption and desorption kinetics and sorbent capacity. Typical process involves cycle times in the order of 100 seconds, a time too short to fully utilize the full volume of the sorbent and the sorption capacity of the sorbent pellets. As a part of this project, Thermosolv LLC undertook the development of oxygen sorbents as a high-surface area supported sorbent on a light-weight inert support to (1) reduce the cost, (2) increase the productivity, and (3) reduce the overall weight of the reactor. Using a previously developed perovskite (LSCF 1991) with its well-characterized performance, composite sorbent pellets each consisting of an inert core coated by a thin layer of the functional perovskite material were produced. Several low-density, inexpensive inert solids supports in the 1/8”-1/4” size were selected to keep the pressure drop across the sorbent bed in the acceptable range. A number of commercial technologies including spray coating, dip coating, incipient impregnation of porous substrate followed by thermal annealing at various temperatures and duration were employed and tested to produce robust composite supported sorbent pellets. A sense of optimum coating thickness was developed by testing sorbent pellets of various increasing diameter pellets. LSCF-1991extrudates ranging in size from 1/32” to 3/16” were tested in a TGA and in a fixed-bed pressure swing test set-up for sorption/desorption cycles of interest. The data show that for the operational conditions of interest the coating thickness for a supported sorbent pellet needs to be approximately 1/32” (about 0.8 mm). Subsequent work thereby concentrated on developing composite pellets of various substrates, shapes and sizes with coating layer of about this size range. Candidate support materials were chosen based on cost, inertness, mechanical strength, thermal expansion and chemical stability with sorbent material, and in a size range to give an acceptable pressure drop in fixed-bad reactor configurations. Coating application methods used for application of the sorbent onto the support included precipitation, spray coating and dip coating from sorbent slurries and sol gels. For all coated supports where we could successfully apply a uniform coating of desired thickness with an acceptable handling performance in terms of exfoliation, TGA-based cyclic sorption/desorption testing was performed to determine cycling capacity of oxygen. Among nearly twenty different support materials tested, best adhesion performance was obtained from stainless saddle supports. In the bench-scale fixed-bad tests stainless steel saddle support composite pellets with a coating thickness in the 0.6 mm or so range, the composite sorbent pellet performance approached up to 95% of that of the 2 mm parent material pellets. In a parallel approach to reducing the cost of the sorbent, alternate sorbent formulations replacing/reducing the amount of cobalt in the LSCF family were also investigated. Successful formulations that could match the performance of LSCF 1991 were identified based on TGA cyclic tests as LSCF 1919 and LSF 1910. In the range of operational envelop of cycle times and other relevant process operating conditions, the reduced Co formulations showed comparable performance in the bench-scale fixed-bad cyclic operations. As a part of this project, we also attempted substitution of La and Sr with Ca and Ba, and Co with Mn, Ni and Cu with little success, but the overall project goal of reducing sorbent cost in terms of raw material and manufacturing expenses was successful.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

A Practical Framework for Simulating Time-Resolved Spectroscopy Based on a Real-Time Dyson Expansion

Time-resolved spectroscopy is a powerful tool for probing electron dynamics in molecules and solids, revealing transient phenomena on subfemtosecond time scales. The interpretation of experimental results is often enhanced by parallel numerical studies, which can provide insight and validation for experimental hypotheses. However, developing a theoretical framework for simulating time-resolved spectra remains a significant challenge. The most suitable approach involves the many-body nonequilibrium Green's function formalism, which accounts for crucial dynamical many-body correlations during time evolution. While these dynamical correlations are essential for observing emergent behavior in time-resolved spectra, they also render the formalism prohibitively expensive for large-scale simulations. Substantial effort has been devoted to reducing this computational cost─through approximations and numerical techniques─while preserving the key dynamical correlations. The ultimate goal is to enable first-principles simulations of time-dependent systems ranging from small molecules to large, periodic, multidimensional solids. Here, in this perspective, we outline key challenges in developing practical simulations for time-resolved spectroscopy, with a particular focus on Green's function methodologies. We highlight a recent advancement toward a scalable framework: the real-time Dyson expansion (RT-DE) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 2024, 133, 226902]. We introduce the theoretical foundation of RT-DE and discuss strategies for improving scalability, which have already enabled simulations of system sizes beyond the reach of previous fully dynamical approaches. We conclude with an outlook on future directions for extending RT-DE to first-principles studies of dynamically correlated, nonequilibrium systems.

Reeves, Cian C. [Univ. of California, Santa Barbar↗

A coupled hydrologic-agroeconomic modeling framework to evaluate adaptive irrigation strategies under groundwater withdrawal restrictions

Growing groundwater scarcity requires integrated tools to capture interactions among hydrology, agricultural production, markets, and land use. This study presents an iterative modeling framework that couples hydrologic, crop-yield, and economic models to capture two-way feedback among water availability, agricultural production, and market responses under groundwater constraints. The primary goal of this paper is to describe the methodological development of the coupled framework and demonstrate the significance of iterative model interaction. Applied to the western United States, we evaluated adaptive responses to restricting groundwater use beyond recharge levels, represented through changes in irrigation management and expansion or shrinkage of crop markets through land reallocation. Results demonstrate that the iterative coupling converges to stable equilibrium responses within 10 iterations. At equilibrium, deficit irrigation emerges as the dominant adaptation strategy in California, with irrigation levels stabilizing at approximately 70% of full irrigation demand, while Arizona and New Mexico experience stronger yield sensitivities. Early iterations produce commodity price increases of up to 10% for fruit and vegetable crops; however, these responses moderate as land allocation and production patterns adjust across regions. Deficit irrigation and spatial reallocation of irrigated land partially offset production losses, with variability observed across different states: California maintains yields primarily via deficit irrigation, whereas Arizona and New Mexico will rely mainly on reducing irrigated area to absorb the shock. By capturing feedback between biophysical and economic processes, this approach highlights how irrigation strategies and land-use decisions evolve under water stress and provides a transferable platform for evaluating water management policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pests, diseases, and aridity have shaped the genome of Corymbia citriodora

Corymbia citriodora is a member of the predominantly Southern Hemisphere Myrtaceae family, which includes the eucalypts (Eucalyptus, Corymbia and Angophora; ~800 species). Corymbia is grown for timber, pulp and paper, and essential oils in Australia, South Africa, Asia, and Brazil, maintaining a high-growth rate under marginal conditions due to drought, poor-quality soil, and biotic stresses. To dissect the genetic basis of these desirable traits, we sequenced and assembled the 408 Mb genome of Corymbia citriodora, anchored into eleven chromosomes. Comparative analysis with Eucalyptus grandis reveals high synteny, although the two diverged approximately 60 million years ago and have different genome sizes (408 vs 641 Mb), with few large intra-chromosomal rearrangements. C. citriodora shares an ancient whole-genome duplication event with E. grandis but has undergone tandem gene family expansions related to terpene biosynthesis, innate pathogen resistance, and leaf wax formation, enabling their successful adaptation to biotic/abiotic stresses and arid conditions of the Australian continent.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Deployment Potential of Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in California

As states within the United States respond to future grid development goals, there is a growing demand for reliable and resilient nighttime generation that can be addressed by low-cost, long-duration energy storage solutions. This report studies the potential of including concentrating solar power (CSP) in the technology mix to support California’s goals as defined in Senate Bill 100. A joint agency report study that determined potential pathways to achieve the renewable portfolio standard set by the bill did not include CSP, and our work provides information that could be used as a follow-up. This study uses a capacity expansion model configured to have nodal spatial fidelity in California and balancing-area fidelity in the Western Interconnection outside of California. The authors discovered that by applying current technology cost projections CSP fulfills nearly 15% of the annual load while representing just 6% of total installed capacity in 2045, replacing approximately 30 GWe of wind, solar PV, and standalone batteries compared to a scenario without CSP included. The deployment of CSP in the results is sensitive to the technology’s cost, which highlights the importance of meeting cost targets in 2030 and beyond to enable the technology’s potential contribution to California’s carbon reduction goals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Ab initio calculations of monopole sum rules: From finite nuclei to infinite nuclear matter

We compute moments of the isoscalar monopole response of 𝑁 = 𝑍 closed-shell nuclei based on chiral nucleon-nucleon plus three-nucleon interactions. We employ the random-phase approximation (RPA) and two ab initio many-body approaches, the in-medium similarity renormalization group (IMSRG) and coupled-cluster theory (CC). In the IMSRG framework, the moments are obtained as ground-state expectation values, whereas in the CC approach, they are evaluated through excited-state calculations. We find good agreement between the IMSRG and CC results across all nuclei studied. RPA provides a reasonable approximation to the correlated methods if the interaction is soft. From the calculated moments, we extract average energies of the monopole response, compute finite-nucleus incompressibilities, and estimate the incompressibility of symmetric nuclear matter by a fit to a leptodermous expansion. Our extrapolated values are lower than those obtained in nuclear-matter calculations with the same interactions, but the values are consistent with phenomenological ranges.

Bonaiti, Francesca [Michigan State Univ., East Lan↗

Vibronic and Environmental Effects in Simulations of Optical Spectroscopy

Including both environmental and vibronic effects is important for accurate simulation of optical spectra, but combining these effects remains computationally challenging. We outline two approaches that consider both the explicit atomistic environment and the vibronic transitions. Both phenomena are responsible for spectral shapes in linear spectroscopy and the electronic evolution measured in nonlinear spectroscopy. The first approach utilizes snapshots of chromophore-environment configurations for which chromophore normal modes are determined. We outline various approximations for this static approach that assumes harmonic potentials and ignores dynamic system-environment coupling. The second approach obtains excitation energies for a series of time-correlated snapshots. This dynamic approach relies on the accurate truncation of the cumulant expansion but treats the dynamics of the chromophore and the environment on equal footing. Both approaches show significant potential for making strides toward more accurate optical spectroscopy simulations of complex condensed phase systems.

Chemistry↗

Phasor-Measurement-Unit-Based Data Analytics Using Digital Twin and PhasorAnalytics Software

A major objective of this project was to apply GE’s commercial machine learning and data analytics toolsets to large-scale, real-world, anonymized Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets in order to extract signatures, correlated and/or causal factors, and precursor patterns associated with significant power system phenomena. The project had a particular emphasis on extraction of insights relevant to asset health monitoring, real-time load modeling and cybersecurity monitoring. Additionally, the team was directed to undertake a comprehensive data quality analysis for the provided datasets and encouraged to estimate the ‘machine-learning readiness’ of the datasets by documenting any major obstacles to the application of commercial machine learning algorithms. To accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project team’s work centered around the identification of key event signatures and application of the identified event signatures for event detection and event classification. The industry-validated, semi-supervised machine learning strategy employed for event signature identification involved several major tasks, including data-preprocessing, generation of an overabundance of features, normal data identification, normality modeling, and event signature identification through a methodical, quantitative ranking of features in order of relevance to each studied event type. Throughout the project, data quality issues and mitigation techniques were investigated. In this report, insights are provided regarding the readiness of the provided synchrophasor datasets for application of machine learning and data analytics. The methodologies employed for this technical strategy are summarized in this report. With regards to data preprocessing and feature generation, the provided Training and Test Datasets were ingested into GE’s big data environment. Subsequently, the team applied bad data cleansing and data imputation scripts, event detection scripts, and application programming interfaces (APIs) to the datasets for convenient data access. The project team completed development and validation of dozens of physics-based, statistics-based and transformation-based feature functions used for the extraction of over 60 synchrophasor features. Using a new parallel feature generation technology developed on this project, over 60 features have been rapidly generated for the full two years’ worth of Training and Test Dataset data associated with both the Eastern and Western interconnects. Even accommodating for temporal down-sampling inherent to the feature extraction procedure, this parallel feature generation activity resulted in a massive feature set with a storage requirement approximately equal to that of the raw training dataset itself. With regards to normal data identification and normality modeling, a normality model was built using the feature data extracted from the Training Dataset and iteratively refined subsequent to incremental adjustments and expansions of the Training Dataset feature data. With respect to event characterization and signature identification, an event signature identification pipeline was developed and used in conjunction with the normality model to identify over 15 event signatures for key event categories within the Training Dataset. The identified event signatures were used to characterize hundreds of key events in terms of relative severity, duration, and location of the event. An investigation was undertaken to identify correlated and causal factors involved in transformer events. A separate investigation into temporal trends in ring-down analysis results was undertaken to determine possible associations between system dynamics and various other factors such as loading, season or year. To validate the identified event signatures, additional work was undertaken to develop signature-based anomaly detection and classification tools suitable for convenient application to the synchrophasor datasets. The anomaly detection and classification tools, suitable for online application, were then applied to the entirety of the Eastern Interconnect Training and Test Datasets. Performance of the event detection and classification tools was evaluated upon receipt of the Test Dataset event logs (i.e., the labels for events contained in the Test Dataset), and promising results were obtained despite several challenges (documented herein) associated with application of supervised or semi-supervised machine learning methods to large-scale, anonymized datasets. Finally, the detection and classification tools were used to detect, classify, and characterize thousands of new events not included in the original event logs provided by the DOE within both the Training and Test Datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Resource Adequacy Considerations

This study examines the impact of reserve margin-based reliability assessment, as commonly used in capacity expansion models, on planning resource-adequate power systems under high penetrations of solar photovoltaics (PV). As a generation resource, PV is operationally different from the conventional dispatchable resources for which most capacity expansion models were designed. The question this study attempts to answer is whether large amounts of PV on a system (in this case, the Western Interconnection of North America) would bias the results of conventional reserve margin-based capacity expansion modeling towards an over- or under-provisioning of resource adequacy. This analysis used NREL’s Resource Planning Model (RPM) for capacity expansion modeling and NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) for resource adequacy assessment. RPM uses a reserve margin requirement to enforce resource adequacy. PRAS, a collection of tools for studying the resource adequacy of power systems and the adequacy contributions of individual resources on a probabilistic basis, was used to compute multiple resource adequacy metrics across a number of simulated scenarios and system representations with differing regional detail. In all cases, including high PV penetrations (up to 33% annual generation from PV, interconnection-wide), RPM was able to produce resource-adequate systems as measured by normalized expected unserved energy and loss-of-load expectation results from PRAS. The accuracy of reserve margin approaches depends heavily on the underlying assumptions informing the capacity credit assigned to variable and energy-limited resources, particularly when such resources are abundant in the modeled system. RPM’s standard methodology for estimating variable and flexible resources’ capacity contributions, which is based on the top 100 hours of net load, did not appear to systematically undervalue or overvalue variable generation relative to a more rigorous equivalent firm capacity assessment using PRAS, although both over- and under-valuations were observed in specific scenarios. In the worst cases, the top 100 hour method underestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by two percentage points, and overestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by five percentage points. Calculating capacity contributions based on the top 10 hours of net load systematically underestimated equivalent firm capacities at more modest PV penetrations, but was often a better approximation of equivalent firm capacity than the existing 100-hour approach in scenarios with higher PV penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗