Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Art”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2023

Report on FY 2023 Experimental Results in Developing the Fabrication Parameters for Alloy 709 in Different Product Forms

The Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Program has established a multi-year plan to develop Alloy 709 advanced stainless steel (A709), generate the data package and develop material-specific design parameters in qualifying it as a new structural material for Class A construction in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section III, Division 5, High Temperature Reactors (ASME 2023). In collaboration with material vendors, the Advanced Materials Development activities under ART have successfully scaled the A709 plate form production from a laboratory heat of 500 pounds to commercial heats totaling 133,000 pounds of A709 plate fabricated from three heats. The goal of the overall A709 development program is to establish the necessary microstructural and mechanical properties relationship for A709 to ultimately develop fabrication parameters for other product forms such as bars, pipes, and forgings using the available ART A709 materials. The objective of this A709 development work in FY 2023 is to experimentally determine grain coarsening behavior for the A709 heats and to experimentally generate the continuous cooling precipitation (CCP) diagram for A709 using the as-rolled commercial heat plate materials. Integral to this work is the characterization of the as-rolled materials and the determination of an effective solution-annealing process, which was reported in Y. Wang et al., 2023. This report summarizes the results of the high-speed dilatometry project to develop the CCP diagram using the commercial heat 58776-3RB fabricated by G. O. Carlson and heat 529900-02 fabricated by Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) Specialty Rolled Products.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Models of SIV rebound after treatment interruption that involve multiple reactivation events

In order to assess the efficacy of novel HIV-1 treatments leading to a functional cure, the time to viral rebound is frequently used as a surrogate endpoint. The longer the time to viral rebound, the more efficacious the therapy. In support of such an approach, mathematical models serve as a connection between the size of the latent reservoir and the time to HIV-1 rebound after treatment interruption. The simplest of such models assumes that a single successful latent cell reactivation event leads to observable viremia after a period of exponential viral growth. Here we consider a generalization developed by Pinkevych et al. and Hill et al. of this simple model in which multiple reactivation events can occur, each contributing to the exponential growth of the viral load. We formalize and improve the previous derivation of the dynamics predicted by this model, and use the model to estimate relevant biological parameters from SIV rebound data. We confirm a previously described effect of very early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation on the rate of recrudescence and the viral load growth rate after treatment interruption. We find that every day ART initiation is delayed results in a 39% increase in the recrudescence rate (95% credible interval: [18%, 62%]), and a 11% decrease of the viral growth rate (95% credible interval: [4%, 20%]). We show that when viral rebound occurs early relative to the viral load doubling time, a model with multiple successful reactivation events fits the data better than a model with only a single successful reactivation event.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Data Platform for High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) Thermal-Fluid Experiments

Since the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) initiated the Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) in 2009, a total of 30 NEUP projects focused on High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) thermal-fluid experiments were funded up to fiscal year (FY) 2021. This represents a total DOE investment of approximately $23M over the 12-year period, covering thermal fluid phenomena important to both pebble bed and prismatic HTGR designs. The NEUP projects have produced a large amount of high-quality experimental and computational data that were published in final project reports, journal articles, dissertations, and conference proceedings, but in most cases the actual data sets and supporting information such as facility and instrumentation descriptions were not publicly disseminated to the HTGR community. To the authors’ best knowledge, a data platform that organizes and summarizes these NEUP-funded projects for HTGR research does not currently exist. To improve access to this HTGR validation data and optimize the return on the significant investment made by DOE, the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Gas-Cooled Reactor (GCR) program started a survey of completed and ongoing HTGR NEUP projects with the aim of developing a public-access data platform that can be used to retrieve computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and system code validation data and guide future NEUP investments. This paper summarizes the status of the current ART-GCR database, provides an overview of the NEUP-funded HTGR-related research projects from FY2009 to FY2021 and identify validation knowledge gaps still existing in HTGR thermal-fluid research.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Device Performance of Emerging Photovoltaic Materials (Version 1)

Abstract Emerging photovoltaics (PVs) focus on a variety of applications complementing large scale electricity generation. Organic, dye‐sensitized, and some perovskite solar cells are considered in building integration, greenhouses, wearable, and indoor applications, thereby motivating research on flexible, transparent, semitransparent, and multi‐junction PVs. Nevertheless, it can be very time consuming to find or develop an up‐to‐date overview of the state‐of‐the‐art performance for these systems and applications. Two important resources for recording research cells efficiencies are the National Renewable Energy Laboratory chart and the efficiency tables compiled biannually by Martin Green and colleagues. Both publications provide an effective coverage over the established technologies, bridging research and industry. An alternative approach is proposed here summarizing the best reports in the diverse research subjects for emerging PVs. Best performance parameters are provided as a function of the photovoltaic bandgap energy for each technology and application, and are put into perspective using, e.g., the Shockley–Queisser limit. In all cases, the reported data correspond to published and/or properly described certified results, with enough details provided for prospective data reproduction. Additionally, the stability test energy yield is included as an analysis parameter among state‐of‐the‐art emerging PVs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

The IDAES process modeling framework and model library—Flexibility for process simulation and optimization

Abstract Energy systems and manufacturing processes of the 21st century are becoming increasingly dynamic and interconnected, which require new capabilities to effectively model and optimize their design and operations. Such next generation computational tools must leverage state‐of‐the‐art techniques in optimization and be able to rapidly incorporate new advances. To address these requirements, we have developed the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform, which builds on the strengths of both process simulators (model libraries) and algebraic modeling languages (advanced solvers). This paper specifically presents the IDAES Core Modeling Framework (IDAES‐CMF), along with a case study demonstrating the application of the framework to solve process optimization problems. Capabilities provided by this framework include a flexible, modifiable, open‐source platform for optimization of process flowsheets utilizing state‐of‐the‐art solvers and solution techniques, fully open and extensible libraries of dynamic unit operations models and thermophysical property models, and integrated support for superstructure‐based conceptual design and optimization under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plasma Photocathodes

Abstract Plasma wakefield accelerators offer accelerating and focusing electric fields three to four orders of magnitude larger than state‐of‐the‐art radiofrequency cavity‐based accelerators. Plasma photocathodes can release ultracold electron populations within such plasma waves and thus open a path toward tunable production of well‐defined, compact electron beams with normalized emittance and brightness many orders of magnitude better than state‐of‐the‐art. Such beams will have far‐reaching impact for applications such as light sources, but also open up new vistas on high energy and high field physics. This paper reviews the innovation of plasma photocathodes, and reports on the experimental progress, challenges, and future prospects of the approach. Details of the proof‐of‐concept demonstration of a plasma photocathode in 90° geometry at SLAC FACET within the E‐210: Trojan Horse program are described. Using this experience, alongside theoretical and simulation‐supported advances, an outlook is given on future realizations of plasma photocathodes such as the upcoming E‐310: Trojan Horse‐II program at FACET‐II with prospects toward excellent witness beam parameter quality, tunability, and stability. Future installations of plasma photocathodes also at compact, hybrid plasma wakefield accelerators, will then boost capacities and open up novel capabilities for experiments at the forefront of interaction of high brightness electron and photon beams.

Habib, Ahmad Fahim↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deducing the EOS of dense neutron star matter with machine learning

Abstract The interior of a neutron star is a unique astrophysical laboratory for studying matter at extreme densities and pressures beyond what is replicable in terrestrial experiments. While there is no direct way to simulate the interior of these stars, one promising avenue to learning more about the equation of state (EOS) of such matter is through X‐rays emitted from the star's surface. The current state‐of‐the‐art method for inference of EOS from a star's X‐ray spectra uses piece‐wise, simulation‐based likelihoods that rely on theoretical assumptions complicated by systematic uncertainties. To reduce the dimensionality of the problem, this method infers macroscopic properties of the star (mass and radius) from emitted X‐ray spectra, and from those quantities infers the EOS. This work approaches the same problem using machine learning techniques, demonstrating a series of enhancements to the current state‐of‐the‐art by realistic uncertainty quantification and reducing the need for theoretical assumptions. We also demonstrate novel inference of the EOS directly from high‐dimensional simulated X‐ray spectra from neutron stars that negate the need for a piece‐wise approach. This inference allows for a natural propagation of uncertainties from the X‐ray spectra by conditioning the discussed networks on realistic sources of uncertainty for each star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Review of Potential–Induced Degradation in Bifacial Photovoltaic Modules

Bifacial modules are increasingly deployed in the field and are expected to represent half of the market share within 10 years. Their rear structure differs from monofacial modules to allow additional light absorption. However, it brings new reliability challenges to address. In particular, the risk of potential-induced degradation (PID) is increased as both module sides are impacted. Different PID processes have been identified in the literature: shunting type (PID-s), polarization type (PID-p), Na penetration type, and corrosion type (PID-c). Their occurrence depends on the photovoltaic system configuration as well as the module's materials. Apart from PID-s, PID processes are not well understood and extensive research is needed to elucidate the PID scenario and underlying mechanisms. Herein, current knowledge about PID processes and their impact on the main bifacial modules in the market are gathered with the aim to guide future research. Bifacial module technologies and leakage current paths leading to PID are described. Indoor and outdoor PID testing methods are detailed. For each bifacial module technology, the PID processes are investigated with their indicators, mechanism and recovery process. Furthermore, PID-impacting factors and limitation solutions are finally reported and a state of the art on PID modeling is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation studies of a full-ring, CZT SPECT system for whole-body imaging of 99m Tc and 177 Lu

Single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) is an imaging modality that has demonstrated its utility in a number of clinical indications. Despite this progress, a high sensitivity, high spatial resolution, multi-tracer SPECT with a large field of view suitable for whole-body imaging of a broad range of radiotracers for theranostics is not available. With the goal of filling this technological gap, we have designed a cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) full-ring SPECT scanner instrumented with a broad-energy tungsten collimator. The final purpose is to provide a multi-tracer solution for brain and whole-body imaging. Our static SPECT does not rely on the dual- and the triple-head rotational SPECT standard paradigm, enabling a larger effective area in each scan to increase the sensitivity. We provide a demonstration of the performance of our design using a realistic model of our detector with simulated body-sized phantoms filled with 99m Tc and 177 Lu. Our SPECT design can resolve 7.9 mm rods for 99m Tc (140 keV) and 9.5 mm for 177 Lu (208 keV) in a hot-rod Derenzo phantom with a 3-min exposure and reach an image contrast of 78% for 99m Tc and 57% for 177 Lu using the NEMA IQ phantom with a 6-min exposure. Our modified scatter correction shows an improved contrast-recovery ratio compared to a standard correction. In this paper, we demonstrate the good performance of our design for whole-body imaging purposes. This adds to our previous demonstration of improved qualitative and quantitative 99m Tc imaging of brain perfusion and 123 I imaging of dopamine transport with respect to state-of-the-art NaI dual-head cameras. We show that our design provides similar IQ and contrast to the commercial full-ring SPECT VERITON for 99m Tc. Regarding 177 Lu imaging of the 208 keV emissions, our design provides similar contrast to that of other state-of-the-art SPECTs with a significant reduction in exposure. In conclusion, the high sensitivity and extended energy range up to 250 keV makes our SPECT design a promising alternative for clinical imaging and theranostics of emerging radionuclides.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling inter‐reader variability in clinical target volume delineation for soft tissue sarcomas using diffusion model

Abstract Background Accurate delineation of the clinical target volume (CTV) is essential in the radiotherapy treatment of soft tissue sarcomas. However, this process is subject to inter‐reader variability due to the need for clinical assessment of risk and extent of potential microscopic spread. This can lead to inconsistencies in treatment planning, potentially impacting treatment outcomes. Most existing automatic CTV delineation methods do not account for this variability and can only generate a single CTV for each case. Purpose This study aims to develop a deep learning‐based technique to generate multiple CTV contours for each case, simulating the inter‐reader variability in the clinical practice. Methods We employed a publicly available dataset consisting of fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG‐PET), x‐ray computed tomography (CT), and pre‐contrast T1‐weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans from 51 patients with soft tissue sarcoma, along with an independent validation set containing five additional patients. An experienced reader drew a contour of the gross tumor volume (GTV) for each patient based on multi‐modality images. Subsequently, two additional readers, together with the first one, were responsible for contouring three CTVs in total based on the GTV. We developed a diffusion model‐based deep learning method that is capable of generating arbitrary number of different and plausible CTVs to mimic the inter‐reader variability in CTV delineation. The proposed model incorporates a separate encoder to extract features from the GTV masks, leveraging the critical role of GTV information in accurate CTV delineation. Results The proposed diffusion model demonstrated superior performance with the highest Dice Index (0.902 compared to values below 0.881 for state‐of‐the‐art models) and the best generalized energy distance (GED) (0.209 compared to values exceeding 0.221 for state‐of‐the‐art models). It also achieved the second‐highest recall and precision metrics among the compared ambiguous image segmentation models. Results from both datasets exhibited consistent trends, reinforcing the reliability of our findings. Additionally, ablation studies exploring different model structures and input configurations highlighted the significance of incorporating prior GTV information for accurate CTV delineation. Conclusions The proposed diffusion model successfully generates multiple plausible CTV contours for soft tissue sarcomas, effectively capturing inter‐reader variability in CTV delineation.

Dong, Yafei [Yale Biomedical Imaging Institute Yal↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Optimization of Chemical Cluster Structures: Methods, Applications, and Challenges

Chemical clusters are relevant to many applications in catalysis, separations, materials, and energy sciences. Experimentally, the structure of clusters is difficult to determine, but it is very important in understanding their chemistry and properties. Computational methods can be used to examine cluster structure, however finding the most stable structure is not simple, particularly as the cluster size increases. Global optimization techniques have long been used to tackle the problem of the most stable structure, but such approaches would have to look for a global minimum, while sampling local minima over the whole potential energy surface as well. In this review, the state-of-the-art theory of global optimization theory is summarized. First, the definition, significance, relation to experiments, and a brief history of global optimization is presented. We then discuss, in more detail, three versatile global optimization methods: the basin hopping, the artificial bee colony algorithm, and the genetic algorithm. We close with some representative application examples of global optimization of clusters since 2016 and the challenges, open questions and opportunities in this field.

Global optimization, Chemical clusters, Artificial↗
DOE OSTI2023

A New Class of Proton Conductors with Dramatically Enhanced Stability and High Conductivity for Reversible Solid Oxide Cells

Reversible solid oxide cells based on proton conductors (P-ReSOCs) have potential to be the most efficient and low-cost option for large-scale energy storage and power generation, holding promise as an enabler for the implementation of intermittent renewable energy technologies and the widespread utilization of hydrogen. Here, the rational design of a new class of hexavalent Mo/W-doped proton-conducting electrolytes with excellent durability while maintaining high conductivity is reported. Specifically, BaMo(W) 0.03 Ce 0.71 Yb 0.26 O 3-δ exhibits dramatically enhanced chemical stability against high concentrations of steam and carbon dioxide than the state-of-the-art electrolyte materials while retaining similar ionic conductivity. In addition, P-ReSOCs based on BaW 0.03 Ce 0.71 Yb 0.26 O 3-δ demonstrate high peak power densities of 1.54, 1.03, 0.72, and 0.48 W cm –2 at 650, 600, 550, and 500 °C, respectively, in the fuel cell mode. During steam electrolysis, a high current density of 2.28 A cm –2 is achieved at a cell voltage of 1.3 V at 600 °C, and the electrolysis cell can operate stably with no noticeable degradation when exposed to high humidity of 30% H 2 O at –0.5 A cm –2 and 600 °C for over 300 h. Altogether, this work demonstrates the promise of donor doping for obtaining proton conductors with both high conductivity and chemical stability for P-ReSOCs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mind the gaps! Climate scientists should heed lessons in collaborative storytelling from William Shakespeare

Abstract To co‐produce locally relevant climate knowledge, climate scientists are engaging in new collaborations—with stakeholders and with scholars in the humanities, arts, and social sciences. In our work as a Shakespeare scholar‐turned‐public‐humanist and a climate scientist, we have created a methodology that allows researchers and communities to co‐produce knowledge by co‐producing narratives. We combine principles from emerging climate “storylines” research with collaborative storytelling inspired by William Shakespeare's plays and theatrical practices. Shakespeare's plays spark collaborations and interpretations, in part, because of how Shakespeare leaves gaps in the narrative. These gaps allow others to enter as collaborators, creating a “cognitive ecology” that fosters knowledge and action among all engaged. Integrating these methods into climate storyline‐making offers a radical paradigm: it upends the scientist's role as the focal storyteller and expert, and fosters, instead, partnership, equity, and a co‐exploration of multiple uncertainties. It is time for researchers to cede control to a cognitive ecology of collaborative action. This article is categorized under: Trans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > Humanities and the Creative Arts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating Battery Simulations by Using High Performance Computing and Opportunities with Machine Learning

The US Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that the battery pack cost of $60 per kilowatt-hour while increasing the driving range to over 300 miles and vehicle charging under 15 min or less would enable mass penetration of electric vehicles in the USA by 2030. These projections are based on the currently available high-density cell chemistry combined with a system level design and optimized electrodes. Electrodes for current state-of-the-art lithium-ion cell technology are fabricated from electrode slurry comprising of active material, polymeric binder, and conductive diluent such as carbon black that are coated on metal current collectors such as copper and aluminum. Given these challenging requirements for development of electrical energy storage devices for future transportation needs, a predictive simulation capability which can accelerate design by considering performance and safety implications of different geometry, materials, and chemistry choices is required. In this chapter, we discuss our state-of-the-art three-dimensional modeling framework, providing examples on battery performance and safety simulations. We also present approaches to use machine learning in the context of large datasets that are becoming available.

Allu, Srikanth↗
DOE OSTI2022

GeoSoilEnviroCARS (Sector 13) at the Advanced Photon Source: a comprehensive synchrotron radiation facility for Earth science research at ambient and extreme conditions

GeoSoilEnviroCARS (GSECARS) is a comprehensive analytical laboratory for Earth and environmental science research using X-ray beams from the Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory. State-of-the-art instruments are available for (1) high-pressure/high- or low-temperature diffraction, total scattering, and spectroscopy (Brillouin, Raman, and VIS-IR) using the laser heated diamond anvil cell (DAC); (2) high-pressure/high-temperature diffraction, scattering, and imaging as well as acoustic emission (AE) and ultrasonics using the large-volume press (LVP); (3) powder, single crystal, and surface/interface diffraction; (4) X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy; (5) X-ray fluorescence microprobe analysis; and (6) microtomography. As shown here, experiments are facilitated by senior level staff who collaborate on all aspects of the analytical work including experiment design, sample preparation, data collection, data interpretation, and publication preparation. Both technical and scientific synergies occur as a result of the intimate association of the various techniques and scientists experienced in the applications of synchrotron radiation to Earth, environmental, and planetary science problems. The facility includes state-of-the-art instrumentation designed and built in-house, including custom X-ray optics, online and offline laser-based systems, specialized sample environments and positioning systems, as well as pixel-array and multi-crystal energy dispersive X-ray detectors, which are available to be shared among the experimental stations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the emerging potential of quantum annealing hardware for combinatorial optimization

Abstract Over the past decade, the usefulness of quantum annealing hardware for combinatorial optimization has been the subject of much debate. Thus far, experimental benchmarking studies have indicated that quantum annealing hardware does not provide an irrefutable performance gain over state-of-the-art optimization methods. However, as this hardware continues to evolve, each new iteration brings improved performance and warrants further benchmarking. To that end, this work conducts an optimization performance assessment of D-Wave Systems’ Advantage Performance Update computer, which can natively solve sparse unconstrained quadratic optimization problems with over 5,000 binary decision variables and 40,000 quadratic terms. We demonstrate that classes of contrived problems exist where this quantum annealer can provide run time benefits over a collection of established classical solution methods that represent the current state-of-the-art for benchmarking quantum annealing hardware. Although this work does not present strong evidence of an irrefutable performance benefit for this emerging optimization technology, it does exhibit encouraging progress, signaling the potential impacts on practical optimization tasks in the future.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗