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At least 271 records · Page 15

Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification

By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes in natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator Accident Pre-Assessed Scenario

This scenario was drafted for inclusion in a revision of Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC) Assessment Manual, Volume 2 - Pre-Assessed Default Scenarios. The contents of this scenario were reviewed and approved by the FRMAC Assessment Working Group in March 2020. The scenario is being issued separately from the full volume ahead of the Mars 2020 launch. The full volume will be published in the future once all scenarios are complete.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

New Jersey Transit Grid Distributed Generation Program. Cybersecurity Design Assurance Assessment

Superstorm Sandy caused a major disruption to passenger-rail and other commuter systems throughout New York and New Jersey. To address this issue, New Jersey Transit (NJT) established the NJ TRANSITGRID project, an effort designed to power bus, ferry, and limited passenger-rail service during natural or man-made disasters. Given the importance of these transportation systems, NJT partnered with Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) to assess the cyber-resilience of the information systems that monitor and control the electrical systems within the microgrid. The Sandia “tabletop” assessment is based on the most recent 20% design packages. From this assessment, the Sandia team identified several security areas that were undefined or did not implement industry best practices. Finally, the Sandia team presented possible follow-on assessment activities and recommended investigating multiple hardening technologies. Addressing these findings and adding state-of-the-art detection and mitigation technologies will help ensure the NJ TRANSITGRID is built with more comprehensive cyber-resilience features.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Comprehensive Margin Assessment of the ASME Section III, Division 5, Class A Primary Load Design Rules

This report provides a comprehensive margin assessment of the ASME Section III, Division 5, Subsection HB, Subpart B rules for the design of high temperature reactor components against load controlled stress limits. These rules, often called the Code primary load design rules, provide protection against creep rupture and plastic collapse under steady conditions. The method adopted here is to compare the deterministic ASME design life, according to the primary load design rules, against the expected, statistical service life of the component, considering creep rupture as the relevant failure mode. The report provides the design margin of the ASME rules in terms of the probability of premature failure -- the probability that the component fails in service before reaching the ASME design life. To complete this assessment, the report describes the development of a statistical creep life assessment procedure accounting for variations in the component loading, material creep rate, and the material rupture time. This includes a novel method for correlating creep rupture data using a Gaussian process accounting for heat-to-heat variation in the Larson-Miller time-temperature parameter. The report applies the complete margin assessment process to quantify the design margin inherent in the ASME primary load design rules as a function of temperature for relevant component geometries and materials. The overall conclusion is that the ASME rules are conservative, providing designs with very small probability of premature failure, but some optimization of the Code design rules is possible to provide a more uniform design margin.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

SECARB Post Injection Assessment Report

The Southern States Energy Board (SSEB) managed the overall Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB) Phase III project and The Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG), at the University of Texas at Austin, managed all activities associated with the Early Test field site near Cranfield, Mississippi (the Early Test or Cranfield Project). The SECARB project at Cranfield was focused downdip of the oil rim and on demonstrating the stacked nature of the storage potential at this location: enhanced oil recovery (EOR) up-dip and saline downdip. Because the injection for EOR continued after the SECARB project ended, no actual post-injection period occurred. However, information collected during the SECARB-monitored injection period, including pressure and CO2 plume position, was utilized in an EOR carbon lifecycle assessment. The carbon lifecycle assessment provided insight on tracking injection fronts and production efficiencies across the field. To complete the post injection assessment, taking into account the continuing EOR period after closeout of SECARB field activities, this report provides data and analysis done under another DOE-funded project. The follow up project focused on the carbon lifecycle of EOR and included an assessment of EOR at as-operated and under possible future scenarios. This work was published by Hossieni et al. (2018) and Hosseininoosheri (2019).

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Relevant Advanced Reactor Benchmarks for Nuclear Data Assessment

Advanced reactor concepts currently being developed throughout the industry are significantly different from light water reactor (LWR) designs with respect to geometry, materials, and operating conditions, and consequently, with respect to their reactor physics behavior. Given the limited operating experience with non-LWRs, the accurate simulation of reactor physics and the quantification of associated uncertainties are critical for ensuring that advanced reactor concepts operate within the appropriate safety margins. Nuclear data are a major source of input uncertainties in reactor physics analysis. As part of an ongoing project at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the effects of nuclear data uncertainties on key figures of merit associated with advanced reactor safety are being assessed for selected advanced reactor technologies. Key nuclear data relevant for reactor safety analysis for each selected advanced reactor technology were identified in Phase 1, and their impact on important key figures of merit was assessed in Phase 2. This report describes the outcome of Phase 3. Available benchmarks and fuel irradiation data for use in evaluating the impact of uncertainties and gaps in nuclear data that impact reactivity control for advanced reactor designs through the fuel cycle were identified and assessed. Benchmarks were identified by searching (1) the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)/Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) handbook, (2) the OCED/NEA International Reactor Physics Experiment Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) handbook, (3) ongoing OECD/NEA benchmark activities, and (4) documentation in public literature. Relevant benchmarks were identified by selecting reactors with geometry, materials, and neutron energy spectra similar to those of selected advanced reactor technologies. This assessment identified six benchmarks, of which three are experimental and three are purely computational. One experimental and one computation benchmark contain depleted fuel; all others are limited to fresh fuel. This report provides short descriptions of the selected benchmarks along with the availability of measured data for comparison.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Turbo FRMAC Implementation of IAEA Radiological Assessment Methodologies for Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies: Ingestion Pathway and Skin and Thyroid Monitoring

This report documents the findings of an assessment of the Turbo FRMAC© software’s ability to implement International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) guidance for calculating operational intervention levels (OIL) for nuclear and radiological emergencies. This assessment is a continuation of previous work that considered IAEA OIL1 and OIL2 for evacuation and relocation protective actions. The IAEA OIL and U.S. Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC) derived response and intervention level methodologies were compared for ingestion and skin and thyroid monitoring pathways. This comparison revealed significant differences in IAEA versus FRMAC handling of these pathways, which precluded an assessment of Turbo FRMAC’s ability to implement the IAEA approach.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Quantitative Performance Assessment of Proxy Apps and Parents (Report for ECP Proxy App Project Milestone ADCD-504-11)

The ECP Proxy Application Project has an annual milestone to assess the state of ECP proxy applications. Our FY21 milestone (ADCD-504-11) proposed to: "Assess the performance and fidelity of proxy applications, including those in the ECP Proxy App Suite, relative to the ECP Application workload on heterogeneous platforms. Use proxy applications and selected ECP applications to assess the utility of critical elements of the Exascale toolchain, especially tools used to collect performance data. Identify gaps in coverage and/or common situations in which proxies may fail to adequately represent ECP applications." To satisfy this milestone, the following specific tasks were completed: Study ability of MACSio to represent I/O workloads of adaptive mesh codes; Prepare report on assessed performance and debugging tools; Perform cosine similarity study on Intel and P9 and submit paper; Complete LDMS/GPU subcontract, complete and receive report; Complete validation of LDMS data collection for GPUs and submit paper; and Perform cosine similarity study on GPUs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Method for Assessing Effectiveness and Technical Capabilities Required for Integrated Deterrence (NSLP-Final Report-Draft2022)

The United States faces an ever-increasingly multi-polar security environment dominated by great power competition with China and a lingering Russian threat as well as from would-be regional hegemons led by ambitions from Iran and North Korea. Our adversaries are pursuing and expanding the strategic means by-which they have an asymmetric offset (e.g., cyber, space, and other modes below the level of armed conflict). To combat and deter against the widening range of hostile actions, the U.S. must have additional capabilities with-which to deter. All of which drives us towards a more thoughtful integrated approach to deterrence, attempting to best align deterrent tools with the adversary actions in order to maximize the credibility of our deterrent. Such an approach complicates our deterrence strategy and demands a methodology to assess whether the U.S. has the deterrent tools necessary to deter the adversarial actions most costly to the U.S. To address this complexity, we create a framework to comprehensively and systematically assess our deterrent tools as qualitatively measured against the adversarial actions we wish to deter. Deterrence is ultimately an operation in the cognitive domain and at the heart of the framework presented here is the fundamental deterrence calculus which we use as the defining measure of whether a tool will credibly deter a given action. We describe the eight levers of the deterrence calculus and distill these levers to four products that are used to qualitatively assess the overall effectiveness of deterrence tools against adversarial actions. Credibility is determined by two principal variables: the technical credibility of the deterrent tool, and the principle of proportionality. Technical credibility of realized deterrence products is assessed through development of key mission requirements and hardware (e.g., components) that will impose costs, deny benefits, or encourage restraint. The principle of proportionality qualitatively asserts that for a deterrent tool to be cognitively credible, the costs imposed against, or benefits denied by, an action are commensurate to the magnitude of costs received from the adversarial action. By basing this framework on these two fundamentals, it is possible to compare deterrent tools in a systematic approach across the broad spectrum of hostile actions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

West Virginia University Industrial Assessment Center (Final Progress Report)

The Industrial Assessment Center at West Virginia University has been successful in workforce development, and in generation of energy savings for manufacturing facilities during the period 2016 to 2021. Graduate and undergraduate students have benefited from energy assessment experience and most of them have found good positions as energy engineers and analysts in the industrial sector. Several peer reviewed research papers in archival journals as well as conference papers on the topic of energy engineering and assessment have been published. The implemented energy savings for manufacturing facilities have been significant in the areas of lighting, compressed air, process heating, steam, HVAC, chillers and cooling towers, and motors. In addition, water use reduction, smart manufacturing applications to save energy, cyber security evaluation, energy management, productivity improvements and waste reduction opportunities that lead to energy intensity reductions have been explored. The students have obtained an opportunity to interact with energy efficiency and productivity improvement professionals at various conferences and workshops and their research has generated important results. In summary, the West Virginia University Industrial Assessment Center (WVU-IAC) has fulfilled its mission in regard to workforce development, energy efficiency for manufacturing facilities, and laid a strong platform enhancing sustainability through reductions in carbon emissions achieved through energy efficiency and energy management initiatives and reductions in water usage and waste reduction. During the project period (2016-2021) the WVU-IAC has made numerous energy efficiency, water use reduction, waste reduction, and productivity improvement recommendations, a significant number of them having been implemented by the manufacturing facilities. The research adds significant understanding to the area of energy efficiency, water and waste reduction, and productivity improvement. The technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of the methods and techniques investigated and demonstrated through this project have been exemplary, resulting in significant recommended and implemented resource savings and reductions in carbon emissions. The project has been of significant benefit to the public owing to replication of results within the industrial sector, thus reducing operating costs for businesses that result in increase of growth and employment, as well as community benefits in terms of reductions in carbon emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Third Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower

Understanding the future changes in projected water supplies is a vital objective for federal hydropower facilities tasked with providing low-cost, reliable electricity across a large regional footprint that encompasses a growing customer base, alternative market structures for marketing the electricity, and a more diverse generation asset mix than was historically present when a majority of federal hydropower facilities were built. This study, The Third Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower, directed by Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act of 2009 (SWA), is the third quinquennial report on evaluating the effects of climate change on hydroelectric energy generated from 132 US federal hydropower plants marketed by four US Department of Energy (DOE) Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs). The technical assessment is conducted by DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Texas A&M University under the guidance of DOE’s Water Power Technologies Office. This study is the result of extensive consultation with the four federal PMAs (Bonneville Power Administration [BPA], Western Area Power Administration [WAPA], Southwestern Power Administration [SWPA], and Southeastern Power Administration [SEPA]), as well as other agencies, including federal hydropower owners/operators (the US Army Corps of Engineers, US Bureau of Reclamation [Reclamation]), US Geological Survey, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). The main findings of this assessment, along with the PMA administrators’ recommendations, will be included in a subsequent DOE report to Congress. The assessment method and the technical findings are described in this report.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Version 5.0 Technical Reference Manual

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, natural gas, and autogas systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying leak sizes and rates, predicting physical effects, characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impacts on people. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards, and to provide developed models in a publicly-accessible toolkit usable by all stakeholders. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 5.0. The most significant change for HyRAM+ version 5.0 from HyRAM+ version 4.1 is the ability to model blends of different fuels. HyRAM+ was previously only suitable for use with hydrogen, methane, or propane, with users having the ability to use methane as a proxy for natural gas and propane as a proxy for autogas/liquefied petroleum gas. In version 5.0, real natural gas or autogas compositions can be modeled as the fuel, or even blends of natural gas with hydrogen. These blends can be used in the standalone physics models, but not yet in the quantitative risk assessment mode of HyRAM+.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLCSite 300: Toxic Emissions Inventory Plan for ABA 2588 California Air Toxics "Hot Spots" Information and Assessment Act of 1987 (Revision 3.0)

The Air Toxics "Hot Spots" Information and Assessment Act (AB 2588 or the “Act”) was enacted in September 1987. Under the Act, stationary sources are required to report the types and quantities of certain toxic substances their facilities routinely release into the air. AB 2588 is designed to provide information to state and local agencies and to the general public on the extent of airborne emissions from stationary sources and the potential public health impacts of those emissions. The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District (the District) is mandated by the State to implement AB 2588. On March 6, 2015, The State Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) adopted changes to the Air Toxics Hot Spots Program Guidance Manual for the Preparation of Health Risk Assessments. These revisions were designed to incorporate three technical support documents and to provide enhanced protection of children as required under state law (SB 25, Escutia, 1999). Due to these recent changes, and the corresponding potential increases in calculated health risk, the District notified LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL SECURITY, LLC that we must be re-evaluated under AB 2588. Pursuant to the Air Toxics "Hot Spots" Information and Assessment Act of 1987, we have prepared a comprehensive, site-specific Toxics Emissions Inventory Plan. The plan specifies in detail how LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL SECURITY, LLC will inventory our facility's emissions of all toxic substances on the list of substances subject to the Act. The plan provides a comprehensive and detailed description of the methods that will be used to quantify air releases or potential air releases of listed substances from all points of release. The plan also includes quantification methods which result in accurate and comprehensive characterization of releases and comply with all applicable requirements of the “Hot Spots” regulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quality Assessment of Molten Salt Thermochemical Property Data

Recommendations are made to enhance user confidence in property values included in the Molten Salt Thermal Database-Thermochemical Properties (MSTDB-TC). Specifically, it is recommended that all available measured values be included with a transparent assessment of each to arrive at a preferred value for each salt composition in the database. The use of a quality assessment and ranking system is recommended for data and property values compiled in the MSTDB-TC that is analogous to the approach developed for data and property values included in the MSTDB-Thermophysical Properties (TP) database. The approach includes assessments of five features of data collection: the method used to measure the property value, calibration of devices used to make the measurements, the quantified uncertainty of the results, control of the environmental conditions, and determination of the salt composition. The quality of each facet is ranked as High, Moderate, or Incomplete based on objective metrics. The overall quality of the dataset is ranked based on rankings of the five data features and traceability of the reported property value, with rankings of A and B indicating the data and property value are deemed suitable for quantitative use, C indicating the value is computed and not validated and U indicating uncertainties restrict the recommended use to qualitative purposes. Sufficient information should be provided or cited within each data set included in the database to verify the reported property value. The recommended approach is suitable for assessing data already in the MSTDB-TC and screening new entries.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Assessment of the Performance of Hydrofluoroolefins, Hydrochlorofluoroolefins, and Halogen-Free Foam Blowing Agents in Cellular Plastic Foams

Oak Ridge National Laboratory has conducted a literature search to identify relevant information available on alternative materials and technologies that are proposed for foam blowing agents applications. For comparison, similar information was collected for available hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), hydrofluoroolefin (HFO), and hydrochlorofluoroolefins (HCFO) materials. The publicly available literature was analyzed and assessed for technical accuracy for each alternative, and a gap analysis was conducted to understand if additional studies are required to fully assess the viability of an alternative. In assessing these alternatives, this project focused on relevant performance and safety attributes. The performance attributes collected include insulation value per unit thickness, which impacts energy usage of buildings and insulated equipment such as refrigerators. We also assessed the impact of blowing agents on foam mechanical properties and flammability characteristics, and the ability of current processing equipment and techniques to utilize these alternatives. Diffusion of blowing agents through foam cells and its impact on foam aging was also examined. The applications covered in this study are spray foam, boardstock, panels, and appliances. Some of the most relevant findings are summarized below.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Initial Feasibility Assessment of Agrivoltaics in Jackson County, IL

Consistent with concerns raised in other rural communities, the agricultural community in Jackson County, IL is reluctant to install ground based photovoltaic (PV) systems on prime agricultural land. Agrivoltaic solutions have the potential to mitigate community concerns of conversion of farmland to solar energy by allowing for both energy production and farming practices to occur on the same land area. To assess the potential for agrivoltaics in Jackson County, IL, the Jackson County Coalition requested technical assistance to perform an initial technoeconomic assessment, resource assessment, and feasibility assessment based on the unique agricultural context present in the area. In this paper, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) interviewed five Jackson County experts for five key crops (vineyards, strawberries, pumpkins, apple and pear orchards, and hemp) to examine potential for agrivoltaics integration and identify key barriers that could hamper development. NREL performed technoeconomic analysis for different agrivoltaic system designs to determine the economic constraints and opportunities of agrivoltaics development. Overall, there is no one path for agrivoltaics success in Jackson County. Pilot projects can assist in demonstrating agrivoltaic feasibility to stakeholders reluctant to be first adopters. Based on preliminary analyses, agrivoltaic integration with vineyards may prove most feasible as the per acre returns of grapes are comparable with the returns needed to offset higher solar development costs for agrivoltaic systems. In terms of technical specifications of solar, pumpkins and strawberries could be integrated into more traditional solar designs, but there are concerns with shading and pest control. There is no one size fits all solution, and many options may need exploring before a workable solution is found.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Resource and Infrastructure Assessment for the Town of Blandford

This report is a solar resource and infrastructure assessment for the town of Blandford, Massachusetts. The assessment was funded through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Solar Energy Innovation Network (NREL SEIN) Solar in Rural Communities Program, as part of a project to develop a Community-Informed Proactive Solar Siting and Financing Model. As a first step, the project lead organization, UMass Clean Energy Extension prepared an assessment of existing infrastructure, resources, and potential solar development opportunities in participating municipalities, including Blandford. This assessment was designed to describe relevant bylaws and infrastructure within the town, identify the types of solar facilities that could be developed, and quantify the total space available for each type of facility. In this report, we reviewed existing electricity grid infrastructure, and the potential to interconnect additional solar facilities. At the present time, most distribution lines providing electricity to Blandford are over-saturated with authorized and proposed solar projects, and cannot accommodate additional solar projects to interconnect to the grid. We can expect significant upgrades to these circuits, if any of the in-process projects are to proceed, which might then free up additional capacity for new projects. There is one circuit which serves a section of North Blandford Road that is not over-saturated; for the immediate future, this is the most cost-effective location for new large-scale projects to be sited. Meanwhile, most three-phase lines could likely accommodate additional small-to-medium scale projects (under 200 kW), and most single-phase lines could likely accommodate additional projects under 50 kW in size. This description represents the local grid infrastructure as it is - planning for future scenarios of development could include recommendations for areas of grid infrastructure improvement to allow siting of distributed generation in preferred locations. Future scenarios may also include the addition energy storage and other "non-wires alternatives."

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Resource and Infrastructure Assessment for the Town of Wendell

This report is a solar resource and infrastructure assessment for the town of Wendell, Massachusetts. The assessment was funded through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Solar Energy Innovation Network (NREL SEIN) Solar in Rural Communities Program, as part of a project to develop a Community-Informed Proactive Solar Siting and Financing Model. As a first step, the project lead organization, UMass Clean Energy Extension prepared an assessment of existing infrastructure, resources, and potential solar development opportunities in participating municipalities, including Wendell. This assessment was designed to describe relevant bylaws and infrastructure within the town, identify the types of solar facilities that could be developed, and quantify the total space available for each type of facility. In this report, we reviewed existing electricity grid infrastructure, and the potential to interconnect additional solar facilities. At the present time, both distribution lines providing electricity to Wendell are over-saturated with authorized and proposed solar projects, and cannot accommodate additional solar projects to interconnect to the grid. It appears that National Grid is planning an upgrade to the Wendell Depot substation, which might then allow in-process projects are to proceed, and potentially free up additional capacity for new, large projects. Meanwhile, most three-phase lines could likely accommodate additional small-to-medium scale projects (under 200 kW), and most single-phase lines could likely accommodate additional projects under 50 kW in size. This description represents the local grid infrastructure as it is - planning for future scenarios of development could include recommendations for areas of grid infrastructure improvement to allow siting of distributed generation in locations preferred by the community. Future scenarios may also include the addition energy storage and other "non-wires alternatives."

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗