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Space Studies Board Annual Report, 2006

The 2006 Annual Report of the Space Studies Board provides an opportunity to comment not only on the SSB's activities for the past year but also on the environment that has shaped those activities. As has been true for the past several years, and may well be for years to come, we live in an environment that is continually changing. NASA has continued to pursue the Vision for Space Exploration laid down by President George W. Bush in 2004, but it has obtained only limited resources to do so, requiring continuing adjustments in other NASA programs and reconsideration of our plans for the future. In this environment, the activities of the Space Studies Board are of particular importance. We can, through the National Research Council reports that we charter, provide advice on the issues most important to the execution and planning of the space program. Through our Congressional testimony and public statements, we call attention to the concerns and dilemmas that confront NASA and the science community that it supports. The Space Studies Board itself is also in transition. The year 2006 marked the arrival of a new Director, Marcia Smith, who is the permanent replacement for the long-serving and much admired Joe Alexander. As is evident in this Annual Report, Marcia has had to experience a year that has been among the busiest for the Space Studies Board. And that level of activity appears only to be increasing, as we attempt to help navigate the space program through the technical challenges and political turbulence that are expected in the years ahead.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA↗

A middle and upper tropospheric cloud model

The interplay of the various physical processes involved in the formation, maintenance, and decay of middle and upper tropospheric stratiform clouds is discussed. Ice phase fair weather cloud forms are considered. Simulations of cirriform clouds which attempt to incorporate the physical processes in an interactive manner were performed. A two dimensional time dependent Eulerian numerical model, which incorporates all of the important physical processes in a simplified way, is employed to investigate the role of these processes in the evolution of a cloud in an isolated atmospheric layer. Physical parameters considered are the eddy viscosity and the thermal, water vapor, and ice water eddy diffusivities.

Source record↗

Thermodynamic Profiling Through ASSIST Observations and TROPoe Retrievals

This report reviews the most relevant theoretical aspects of thermodynamic profiling techniques based on spectral observations from ASSIST-II infrared radiometers and TROPoe retrievals. The ASSIST+TROPoe system is a cutting-edge remote sensing technology deployed during the AWAKEN and WFIP3 field campaigns to estimate high-frequency profiles of temperature and humidity in the atmosphere. These profiles are highly valuable for characterizing atmospheric stratification, improving wind models, and understanding the impacts of wind plants on the climate. In this document, we discuss the operating principles of ASSIST, the physics of atmospheric infrared radiation, and the mathematical framework and capabilities of TROPoe. Sources of uncertainties in both the instrument and the retrieval method are also thoroughly addressed. This guide is designed to help users of ASSIST, TROPoe, and thermodynamic data in collecting, estimating, and applying thermodynamic profiles rigorously and scientifically.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Visualization: A pathway to enhanced scientific productivity in the expanding missions of Space and Earth Sciences

The movement toward the solution of problems involving large-scale system science, the ever-increasing capabilities of three-dimensional, time-dependent numerical models, and the enhanced capabilities of 'in situ' and remote sensing instruments bring a new era of scientific endeavor that requires an important change in our approach to mission planning and the task of data reduction and analysis. Visualization is at the heart of the requirements for a much-needed enhancement in scientific productivity as we face these new challenges. This article draws a perspective on the problem as it crosses discipline boundaries from solar physics to atmospheric and ocean sciences. It also attempts to introduce visualization as a new approach to scientific discovery and a tool which expedites and improves our insight into physically complex problems. A set of simple illustrations demonstrates a number of visualization techniques and the discussion emphasizes the trial-and-error and search-and-discover modes that are necessary for the techniques to reach their full potential. Further discussions also point to the importance of integrating data access, management, mathematical operations, and visualization into a single system. Some of the more recent developments in this area are reviewed.

Szuszczewicz, E. P.↗

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗

Spacelab science

The Spacelab/Shuttle system will offer a new capability for investigating the earth's environment, solar-terrestrial relationships, and the physics of the solar system and beyond. Many Spacelab science and applications programs have been identified for the 1980s. These include the Solar Optical Telescope, the Chemical Release Module, a variety of materials processing facilities, the Atmospheric Cloud Physics Laboratory, and the Spacelab Infrared Telescope Facility. Experiments carried out by these payloads will range from passive observation of remote astronomical sources to in situ active probing of the earth's atmosphere and magnetosphere to the examination of the processing of materials in space.

Chappell, C. R.↗

Galactic HZE propagation through the Earth's atmosphere

A comprehensive physical model for galactic heavy ion propagation is presented. The nuclear fragmentation model is a simplified physical model but contains the major processes of importance to galactic ions. Comparison is made to measurements of atmospheric ion fluence and the limitations of these comparisons are discussed.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Aerosol and nucleation research in support of NASA cloud physics experiments in space

Tasks performed in the development of an ice nucleus generator which, within the facility concept of the ACPL, would provide a test aerosol suitable for a large number and variety of potential experiments are described. The impact of Atmospheric Cloud Physics Laboratory scientific functional requirements on ice nuclei generation and characterization subsystems was established. Potential aerosol generating systems were evaluated with special emphasis on reliability, repeatability and general suitability for application in Spacelab. Possible contamination problems associated with aerosol generation techniques were examined. The ice nucleating abilities of candidate test aerosols were examined and the possible impact of impurities on the nucleating abilities of those aerosols were assessed as well as the relative merits of various methods of aerosol size and number density measurements.

Vali, G.↗

A Prototype Physical Database for Passive Microwave Retrievals of Precipitation over the US Southern Great Plains

An accurate understanding of the instantaneous, dynamic land surface emissivity is necessary for a physically based, multi-channel passive microwave precipitation retrieval scheme over land. In an effort to assess the feasibility of the physical approach for land surfaces, a semi-empirical emissivity model is applied for calculation of the surface component in a test area of the US Southern Great Plains. A physical emissivity model, using land surface model data as input, is used to calculate emissivity at the 10GHz frequency, combining contributions from the underlying soil and vegetation layers, including the dielectric and roughness effects of each medium. An empirical technique is then applied, based upon a robust set of observed channel covariances, extending the emissivity calculations to all channels. For calculation of the hydrometeor contribution, reflectivity profiles from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Precipitation Radar (TRMM PR) are utilized along with coincident brightness temperatures (Tbs) from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), and cloud-resolving model profiles. Ice profiles are modified to be consistent with the higher frequency microwave Tbs. Resulting modeled top of the atmosphere Tbs show correlations to observations of 0.9, biases of 1K or less, root-mean-square errors on the order of 5K, and improved agreement over the use of climatological emissivity values. The synthesis of these models and data sets leads to the creation of a simple prototype Tb database that includes both dynamic surface and atmospheric information physically consistent with the land surface model, emissivity model, and atmospheric information.

microwave↗

Space Studies Board Annual Report, 2009

The year 2009 was one of transition for the nation, for NASA, and for the Space Studies Board (SSB). The nation pulled back from 2008's economic precipice, but did not return to the path of economic growth that it had been on. The United States inaugurated a new president who set out to build his administration. By mid-year President Obama had announced the appointment of Charlie Bolden as NASA administrator, and Lori Garver as deputy administrator. The president and Charlie Bolden jointly appointed an independent commission, the now well-known Augustine Commission, to provide guidance on the future of NASA's human spaceflight program. Many had known for quite a while that NASA's human spaceflight program faced a profound change at the time of the retirement of the space shuttle. This year was also a year of transition for the SSB. In 2009, Marcia Smith stepped down as staff director for both SSB and ASEB, and Dick Rowberg had a very good turn at the plate as a pinch-hitter. We are deeply indebted to both of them. We are pleased that, after a successful run as study director for Astro2010, Michael Moloney is now director of SSB and ASEB. The profound work begun in 2009 on the decadal surveys will only see the light of day later as they are released and the scientific work begins. The SSB will have much to report for 2010.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA↗

Investigation of the daytime lunar atmosphere for lunar synthesis program

Synthesis studies of the daytime lunar atmoshere were directed toward improved understanding of fundamental lunar atmospheric dynamics and the relationship of the detectable atmosphere to physical processes of the lunar surface and interior. The primary source of data is the Apollo 17 lunar surface mass spectrometer. The Ar40 is radiogenic and its escape rate from the lunar atmosphere requires release of a significant fraction (about 8%) of the argon produced from the decay of K40 within the moon. Furthermore the process of argon release from the solid moon is time varying and related to seismic activity. Most of the helium on the moon is due to release of implanted solar wind alpha particles from the regolith.

Hodges, R. R., Jr.↗

Atmospheric microphysical experiments on an orbital platform

The Zero-Gravity Atmospheric Cloud Physics Laboratory is a Shuttle/Spacelab payload which will be capable of performing a large range of microphysics experiments. This facility will complement terrestrial cloud physics research by allowing many experiments to be performed which cannot be accomplished within the confines of a terrestrial laboratory. This paper reviews the general Cloud Physics Laboratory concept and the experiment scope. The experimental constraints are given along with details of the proposed equipment. Examples of appropriate experiments range from three-dimensional simulation of the earth and planetary atmosphere and of ocean circulation to cloud electrification processes and the effects of atmospheric pollution materials on microphysical processes.

Eaton, L. R.↗

A physical method for downscaling land surface temperatures using surface energy balance theory

Fine-resolution land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal infrared remote sensing images is a good indicator of surface water status and plays an essential role in the exchange of energy and water between land and atmosphere. A physical surface energy balance (SEB)-based LST downscaling method (DTsEB) is developed to downscale coarse remotely sensed thermal infrared LST products with fine-resolution visible and near-infrared data. Here, the DTsEB method is advantageous for its ability to mechanically interrelate surface variables contributing to the spatial variation of LST, to quantitatively weigh the contributions of each related variable within a physical framework, and to efficaciously avoid the subjective selection of scaling factors and the establishment of statistical regression relationships. The applicability of the DTsEB method was tested by downscaling 12 scenes of 990 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and aggregated Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) LST products to 90 m resolution at six overpass times between 2005 and 2015 over three 9.9 km by 9.9 km cropland (mixed by grass, tree, and built-up land) study areas. Three typical LST downscaling methods, namely the widely applied TsHARP, the later developed least median square regression downscaling (LMS) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR), were introduced for intercomparison. The results showed that the DTsEB method could more effectively reconstruct the subpixel spatial variations in LST within the coarse-resolution pixels and achieve a better downscaling accuracy than the TsHARP, LMS and GWR methods. The DTsEB method yielded, on average, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 2.01 K and 1.42 K when applied to the MODIS datasets and aggregated ASTER datasets, respectively, which were lower than those obtained with the TsHARP method, with average RMSEs of 2.41 K and 1.71 K, the LMS method, with average RMSEs of 2.35 K and 1.63 K, and the GWR method, with average RMSEs of 2.38 K and 1.64 K, respectively. The contributions of the related surface variables to the subpixel spatial variation in the LST varied both spatially and temporally and were different from each other. In summary, the DTsEB method was demonstrated to outperform the TsHARP, LMS, and GWR methods and could be used as a good alternative for downscaling LST products from coarse to fine resolution with high robustness and accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting the Evolution of Shallow Cumulus Clouds With a Lotka‐Volterra Like Model

Abstract In numerical weather prediction and climate models, boundary‐layer clouds are controlled by a wide range of subgrid‐scale processes. However, understanding the nature of these processes and their role in the evolution of the cloud size distribution as a whole has been elusive. To address this issue, we adopt a novel empirical framework from the field of population dynamics to model the evolution of cloud size statistics by using the shallow cumulus properties obtained from a large‐eddy simulation (LES). Our approach involves representing the cloud size distribution and the total cloud area using a revised Lotka‐Volterra model and ridge linear model, respectively. The physical interpretation of the total cloud area and coefficients obtained from the optimization of the models reveals three stages probably interpreted by dominant processes: the formation of new clouds, the growth of single clouds, and a steady state with organized transitions involving the growth and decay of multiple clouds. Furthermore, we showcase the potential of this framework to serve as a component of scale‐aware parameterizations of shallow‐convective clouds in atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The recent decline in perennial sea ice cover in Arctic Ocean is a topic of enormous scientific interest and has relevance to a broad variety of scientific disciplines and human endeavors including biological and physical oceanography, atmospheric circulation, high latitude ecology, the sustainability of indigenous communities, commerce, and resource exploration. A credible seasonal prediction of sea ice extent would be of substantial use to many of the stakeholders in these fields and may also reveal details on the physical processes that result in the current trends in the ice cover. Forecasts are challenging due in part to limitations in the polar observing network, the large variability in the climate system, and an incomplete knowledge of the significant processes. Nevertheless it is a useful to understand the current capabilities of high latitude seasonal forecasting and identify areas where such forecasts may be improved. Since 2008 the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) has conducted a seasonal forecasting contest in which the average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September (the month of the annual extent minimum) is predicted from available forecasts in early June, July, and August. The competition is known as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) but recently came under the auspices of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and multi-agency funded project to evaluate the SIO. The forecasts are submitted based on modeling, statistical, and heuristic methods. Forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent from the GMAO are derived from seasonal prediction system of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The projections are made in order to understand the relative skill of the forecasting system and to determine the effects of future improvements to the system. This years prediction is for a September average Arctic ice extent of 5.030.41 million km2.

SIPN↗

Space Studies Board Annual Report, 2003

The Space Studies Board is a unit of the NRC's Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences (DEPS), and it reports to the Division for oversight. DEPS is one of six major program units of the NRC through which the institution conducts its operations on behalf of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. Within DEPS there are a total of 14 boards that cover a broad range of physical science and engineering disciplines and mission areas. Members of the DEPS Committee on Engineering and Physical Sciences provide advice on Board membership and advise on proposed new projects to be undertaken by the Board or its committees. Every 3 years the DEPS Committee also reviews the overall operations of each of its boards. The last review of the SSB was in 2001. The Board meets three times per year to review the activities of its committees and task groups and to be briefed on and discuss major space policy issues. An internal executive committee composed of seven at-large members of the Board meets at least once a year and may convene via conference call at other times to plan for SSB activities and to advise the chair between meetings. All projects proposed to be conducted by standing committees or ad hoctask groups must first be reviewed and approved by the Board or its executive committee, and the Board monitors the progress of the projects throughout the course of the studies.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA↗

Space Studies Board Annual Report, 2005

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) was chartered by Congress, under the leadership of President Abraham Lincoln, to provide scientific and technical advice to the government of the United States. Over the years, the advisory program of the institution has expanded, leading to the establishment of the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) and the Institute of Medicine, and of the National Research Council (NRC), the operational arm of the National Academies. The original charter of the Space Science Board was established in June 1958, three months before NASA opened its doors. The Space Science Board and its successor, the Space Studies Board (SSB), have provided expert external and independent scientific and programmatic advice to NASA on a continuous basis from NASA's inception until the present. The Board has also provided such advice to other agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Department of Defense, and responds to requests from Congress. Early in 2005, the leadership of NASA changed, and with it new emphases emerged. Some of the early interpretations of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration, in which only certain aspects of space science were encouraged, disappeared and a broader mandate for science emerged. But what also emerged was fiscal reality, which precluded many of the exciting activities that were planned for NASA's science programs. In this environment of change, there has been a continuing need to evaluate NASA's plans against the strategies for science that have been laid down in the various NRC decadal surveys, and to assist NASA in determining how best to proceed given the reduced level of resources it will have. Coupled with this has been a continuing need to provide Congress with the assessments of NASA's plans that it requests.

National Research Council (NRC)↗