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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Desmearing Bonse–Hart USANS data using Bayesian Gaussian process regression

Ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) enables access to micrometer-scale structures but is intrinsically affected by strong, anisotropic resolution smearing arising from slit-geometry optics. As a result, recovery of the intrinsic scattering intensity constitutes an ill-posed inverse problem, and commonly used iterative desmearing methods lack rigorous uncertainty quantification. We present a Bayesian desmearing framework for slit-geometry USANS based on Gaussian process regression. In this approach, the scattering intensity is modeled as a smooth random function, and the instrumental point spread function is incorporated explicitly as a forward operator. The resulting formulation yields a closed-form maximum a posteriori solution with well-defined credibility intervals. Computational benchmarks and experimental validation using combined USANS and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) measurements demonstrate that the framework enables stable desmearing, suppresses experimental noise, and preserves physically meaningful structural features under realistic conditions.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Bayesian desmearing algorithm for Bonse–Hart USANS with anisotropic scattering

Ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) using Bonse–Hart optics provides micrometer-scale structural insights but suffers from severe slit-geometry smearing. While well-established for isotropic systems, quantitative desmearing of anisotropic data remains a challenge because conventional corrections break down for non-radial scattering. In this work, we address this by developing a resolution-aware Bayesian framework that explicitly incorporates anisotropy via an affine deformation to the scattering pattern, guided by the principle of parsimony. This results in orientation-resolved point-spread functions that enable a self-consistent determination of both the resolution and deformation parameters. Using Gaussian process regression with uncertainty quantification and a probabilistic correction for multiple scattering, we demonstrate the framework’s effectiveness through numerical benchmarks and experimental studies of a stretched polymer melt. Our approach enables the seamless integration of SANS and USANS data, facilitating quantitative structural analysis of deformed materials at nanometer to micrometer scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Sensitivity of Variational Bayesian Neural Network Performance to Hyperparameters

In scientific applications, predictive modeling is often of limited use without accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) to indicate when a model may be extrapolating or when more data needs to be collected. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) produce predictive uncertainty by propagating uncertainty in neural network (NN) weights and offer the promise of obtaining not only an accurate predictive model but also accurate UQ. However, in practice, obtaining accurate UQ with BNNs is difficult due in part to the approximations used for model training (such as those made in variational inference) and in part to the need to choose a suitable set of hyperparameters; these hyperparameters outnumber those needed for traditional NNs and often have opaque effects on the results. We aim to shed light on the effects of hyperparameter choices for variational BNNs by performing a global sensitivity analysis of variational BNN performance under varying hyperparameter settings. Our results indicate that many of the hyperparameters interact with each other to affect both predictive accuracy and UQ. For improved usage of variational BNNs in real-world applications, we suggest that thorough hyperparameter tuning, including tuning of prior hyperparameters and loss function parameters, is essential for accurate UQ in variational BNNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical modelling and Bayesian inversion for a Compton imaging system: application to radioactive source localization

Abstract This paper presents a statistical forward model for a Compton imaging system, called Compton imager. This system, under development at the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign, is a variant of Compton cameras with a single type of sensors which can simultaneously act as scatterers and absorbers. This imager is convenient for imaging situations requiring a wide field of view. The proposed statistical forward model is then used to solve the inverse problem of estimating the location and energy of point-like sources from observed data. This inverse problem is formulated and solved in a Bayesian framework by using a Metropolis within Gibbs algorithm for the estimation of the location, and an expectation-maximization algorithm for the estimation of the energy. This approach leads to more accurate estimation when compared with the deterministic standard back-projection approach, with the additional benefit of uncertainty quantification in the low photon imaging setting.

Tarpau, Cécilia (ORCID:0000000286539490)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Neural Network Variational Autoencoder Inverse Mapper (BNN-VAIM) and its application in Compton Form Factors extraction

Abstract We extend the Variational Autoencoder Inverse Mapper (VAIM) framework for the inverse problem of extracting Compton Form Factors (CFFs) from deeply virtual exclusive reactions, such as the unpolarized Deeply virtual exclusive scattering (DVCS) cross section. VAIM is an end-to-end deep learning framework to address the solution ambiguity issue in ill-posed inverse problems, which comprises of a forward mapper and a backward mapper to simulate the forward and inverse processes, respectively. In particular, we incorporate Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) into the VAIM architecture (BNN-VAIM) for uncertainty quantification. By sampling the weights and biases distributions of the BNN in the backward mapper of the VAIM, BNN-VAIM is able to estimate prediction uncertainty associated with each individual solution obtained for an ill-posed inverse problem. We first demonstrate the uncertainty quantification capability of BNN-VAIM in a toy inverse problem. Then, we apply BNN-VAIM to the inverse problem of extracting 8 CFFs from the unpolarized DVCS cross section.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Supercharging simulation-based inference for Bayesian optimal experimental design

Abstract Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) seeks to maximize the expected information gain (EIG) of experiments. This requires a likelihood estimate, which in many settings is intractable. Simulation-based inference (SBI) provides powerful tools for this regime. However, existing work explicitly connecting SBI and BOED is restricted to a single contrastive EIG bound. We show that the EIG admits multiple formulations which can directly leverage modern SBI density estimators, encompassing neural posterior, likelihood, and ratio estimation. Building on this perspective, we define a novel EIG estimator using neural likelihood estimation. Further, we identify optimization as a key bottleneck of gradient based EIG maximization and show that a simple multi-start parallel gradient ascent procedure can substantially improve reliability and performance. With these innovations, our SBI-based BOED methods are able to match or outperform by up to 22% existing state-of-the-art approaches across standard BOED benchmarks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

DAmodel: hierarchical Bayesian modelling of DA white dwarfs for spectrophotometric calibration

We use hierarchical Bayesian modelling to calibrate a network of 32 all-sky faint DA white dwarf (DA WD) spectrophotometric standards (⁠16.5 < V , 19.5⁠) alongside three CALSPEC standards, from 912 Å to 32 μm. The framework is the first of its kind to jointly infer photometric zero points and WD parameters (surface gravity log g⁠, effective temperature T eff ⁠, extinction A V ⁠, dust relation parameter R V ) by simultaneously modelling both photometric and spectroscopic data. We model panchromatic Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 (HST/WFC3) UVIS and IR photometry, HST/STIS UV spectroscopy, and ground-based optical spectroscopy to sub-per cent precision. Photometric residuals for the sample are the lowest yet yielding < 0.004 mag RMS on average from the UV to the NIR, achieved by jointly inferring time-dependent changes in system sensitivity and WFC3/IR count-rate nonlinearity. Our GPU-accelerated implementation enables efficient sampling via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, critical for exploring the high-dimensional posterior space. The hierarchical nature of the model enables population analysis of intrinsic WD and dust parameters. Inferred spectral energy distributions from this model will be essential for calibrating the James Webb Space Telescope as well as next-generation surveys, including Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.

methods: statistical↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian analysis of the 86 Sr ⁢(𝛼,𝛼) reaction to constrain the 86 Sr ⁢(𝛼,𝑛) cross section at astrophysical energies

The alpha optical model potential (𝛼-OMP ) is a phenomenological approach used to describe elastic scattering where multiple reaction channels are open. It is one of the most critical inputs for the calculation of thermonuclear reaction rates in explosive stellar environments, but uncertainties within the 𝛼-OMP lead to imprecise predictions hindering comparisons between calculations and observations. In order to improve the precision of the 𝛼-OMP, additional nuclear physics data are required. In this paper, a measurement of the 86 Sr (𝛼, 𝛼) elastic scattering cross section at multiple energies is reported. Here, a local optical potential is constructed via a fully Bayesian analysis of the elastic scattering data. The resulting uncertainties on the low-energy cross sections relevant to nuclear astrophysics are then calculated and shown to be on the order of 50%.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Inferring Nucleon Gravitational Form Factors via Near-Threshold 𝐽/𝜓 Photoproduction

With Bayesian inference, we investigate the impact of recent near-threshold 𝐽/𝜓 production measurements by the 𝐽/𝜓⁢007 experiment and GlueX Collaboration on the extraction of proton gravitational form factors. We apply the generalized parton distribution framework at the next to leading order and demonstrate a stable expansion for the near-threshold kinematics. We find that the experimental constraints are in good agreement with the state-of-the-art lattice simulations, where negative 𝐶 𝑞 ⁡(𝑡) and 𝐶 𝑔 ⁡(𝑡) are strongly preferred. This highlights a great potential to extract them from future high-precision experiments.

QCD phenomenology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Customized Bayesian optimization for efficient beam tuning at the facility for rare isotope beams

Bayesian optimization (BO) has recently emerged as a powerful approach for on-line beam tuning, and it is rapidly gaining adoption across accelerator facilities due to its flexibility and efficiency in handling complex optimization tasks. At the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, rapid and reliable tuning is essential to support the delivery of diverse ion species. To improve the practicality of BO in this setting, we implemented several enhancements, including scalarized composite objective construction for multicriteria optimization, asynchronous evaluation for better resource utilization, prior-mean-assisted optimization to accelerate convergence, and a local search strategy for rapid completion of the task. We present the details of these methods, discuss challenges-encountered, and share our experience applying them to specific beam-tuning tasks.

Accelerators & storage rings↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian quantification of observability and equation of state of twin stars

The possibility of discovering twin stars, two neutron stars (NSs) with the same mass but different radii, is usually studied in forward modelings by using a restricted number of NS matter equations of state (EOSs) encapsulating a first-order phase transition from hadronic to quark matter (QM). Informing our likelihood function with the NS radius data from GW170817 and using a metamodel with nine parameters capable of mimicking most NS EOSs available in the literature, we conduct a Bayesian quantification of the observability and underlying EOSs of twin stars. Of the accepted EOSs, between 12 and 18% yield twin stars, depending on the restrictions we place on the second branch. The possibility of twin stars remains robust even under recent observational constraints. Here, we show that many of these twin star scenarios are observable with currently available levels of accuracy in measuring NS radii. We also present the marginalized posterior probability density functions (PDFs) of every EOS parameter for each of four mass-radius correlation topologies. We find that the inferred EOS depends sensitively on not only whether twin stars are present, but also the category of twin stars, indicating that the observation of twin stars would provide a strong constraint on the underlying EOS. In particular, for two coexisting hybrid stars having QM cores at different densities, the PDF for QM speed of sound squared 𝑐$^2_{qm}$ has two peaks, one below and another above the conformal limit 𝑐$^2_{qm}$ = 1/3 predicted by perturbative QCD.

QCD in nuclear reactions↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global Bayesian analysis of J/𝜓 photoproduction on proton and lead targets

We perform a global Bayesian analysis of diffractive J/𝜓 production in 𝛾 + 𝑝 and 𝛾 + Pb collisions using a color glass condensate (CGC) based calculation framework. As past calculations have shown that CGC-based models typically overpredict the J/𝜓 production in 𝛾 + Pb collisions at high center of mass energy, we address the question of whether it is possible to describe coherent and incoherent diffractive J/𝜓 data from 𝛾 + 𝑝 collisions at Hadron–Electron Ring Accelerator (HERA) and the LHC, and from 𝛾 + Pb collisions at the LHC simultaneously. Our results indicate that a simultaneous description of 𝛾 + 𝑝 and 𝛾 + Pb data is challenging, with results improving when an overall 𝐾-factor—scaling 𝛾 + 𝑝 and 𝛾 + Pb cross sections to absorb model uncertainties—is introduced.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolution of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections and stiffness of dense nuclear matter from Bayesian analyses of FOPI proton-flow excitation functions

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian process (GP) emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions with momentum-independent Skyrme interactions, we infer from the proton directed and elliptical flow in mid-central Au + Au reactions, measured at beam energies from 150 to 1200 MeV/nucleon by the FOPI Collaboration, the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section (BBSCS) modification factor 𝑋 (with respect to their free-space values) and the stiffness parameter 𝐾 of dense nuclear matter. Here, we find that the most probable value of 𝑋 evolves from around 0.7 to 1.0 as the beam energy 𝐸 beam /𝐴 increases. On the other hand, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) may have dual peaks having roughly the same height or extended shoulders at high 𝐾 values. More quantitatively, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) changes from having a major peak around 220 MeV, characterizing a soft EOS in the reaction at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 = 150 MeV, to one that peaks around 320 MeV, indicating a stiff EOS in the reactions at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 higher than about 600 MeV. The transition from soft to stiff happens in mid-central Au + Au reactions at beam energies around 250 MeV/nucleon in which 𝐾 = 220 MeV and 𝐾 = 320 MeV are approximately equally probable. Altogether, the FOPI proton-flow excitation function data indicate a gradual hardening of hot and dense nuclear matter as its density and temperature increase in reactions with higher beam energies.

nuclear matter↗
DOE OSTI2024

Expanding neutrino oscillation parameter measurements in NOvA using a Bayesian approach

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment that measures oscillations in charged-current ν μ → ν μ (disappearance) and ν μ → ν e (appearance) channels, and their antineutrino counterparts, using neutrinos of energies around 2 GeV over a distance of 810 km. In this work we reanalyze the dataset first examined in our previous paper [] using an alternative statistical approach based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo. We measure oscillation parameters consistent with the previous results. We also extend our inferences to include the first NOvA measurements of the reactor mixing angle θ 13 , where we find 0.071 ≤ sin 2 2 θ 13 ≤ 0.107 , and the Jarlskog invariant, where we observe no significant preference for the C P -conserving value J = 0 over values favoring C P violation. We use these results to examine the effects of constraints from short-baseline measurements of θ 13 using antineutrinos from nuclear reactors when making NOvA measurements of θ 23 . Our long-baseline measurement of θ 13 is shown to be consistent with the reactor measurements, supporting the general applicability and robustness of the Pontecorvo-Maki-Nakagawa-Sakata framework for neutrino oscillations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

SPT clusters with DES and HST weak lensing. I. Cluster lensing and Bayesian population modeling of multiwavelength cluster datasets

We present a Bayesian population modeling method to analyze the abundance of galaxy clusters identified by the South Pole Telescope (SPT) with a simultaneous mass calibration using weak gravitational lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We discuss and validate the modeling choices with a particular focus on a robust, weak-lensing-based mass calibration using DES data. For the DES Year 3 data, we report a systematic uncertainty in weak-lensing mass calibration that increases from 1% at z = 0.25 to 10% at z = 0.95 , to which we add 2% in quadrature to account for uncertainties in the impact of baryonic effects. We implement an analysis pipeline that joins the cluster abundance likelihood with a multiobservable likelihood for the Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect, optical richness, and weak-lensing measurements for each individual cluster. We validate that our analysis pipeline can recover unbiased cosmological constraints by analyzing mocks that closely resemble the cluster sample extracted from the SPT-SZ, SPTpol ECS, and SPTpol 500d surveys and the DES Year 3 and HST-39 weak-lensing datasets. This work represents a crucial prerequisite for the subsequent cosmological analysis of the real dataset.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of fine features of the nuclear equation of state from future neutron star radius measurements to 0.1 km accuracy

To more precisely constrain the equation of state (EOS) of supradense neutron-rich nuclear matter, future high-precision x-ray and gravitational wave observatories are proposed to measure the radii of neutron stars (NSs) with an accuracy better than about 0.1 km. However, it remains unclear what particular aspects (other than the stiffness generally spoken of in the literature) of the EOS and to what precision they will be better constrained. In this work, within a Bayesian framework using a metamodel EOS for NSs, we infer the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of incompressibility K 0 and skewness J 0 of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) as well as the slope L, curvature K sym , and skewness J sym characterizing the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy E sym ⁡(ρ), respectively, from mean values of NS radii consistent with existing observations and an expected accuracy Δ⁢R ranging from about 1.0 to 0.1 km. Here, we found that (1) the Δ⁢R has little effect on inferring the stiffness of SNM at suprasaturation densities, (2) smaller Δ⁢R reveals more accurately not only the PDFs but also pairwise correlations among parameters characterizing high-density E sym ⁡(ρ), (3) a double-peak feature of the PDF(K sym ) corresponding to the strong K sym – J sym and K sym – L anticorrelations is revealed when Δ⁢R is less than about 0.2 km, and the locations of the two peaks are sensitive to the maximum value of J sym reflecting the stiffness of E sym ⁡(ρ) above about 3 times the saturation density ρ 0 of SNM, and (4) the high-precision radius measurement for canonical NSs is more useful than that for massive ones for constraining the EOS of nucleonic matter around (2–3)⁢ρ 0 .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated and highly parallelized Bayesian optimization scheme for direct drive fusion experiments on OMEGA

Finding the optimal implosion design on existing experimental facilities for inertial confinement fusion requires an exhaustive search of the vast design parameter space. This is infeasible both with experiments and with simulations. Consequently, a large fraction of the experimentally realizable design space remains unexplored, and new design schemes are challenging to optimize in a reasonable time frame. On the OMEGA laser facility, predictive machine learning models have been developed to accurately forecast the result of an experiment using only inexpensive simulations and the large dataset of prior experimental data. However, the full design space remains vast enough to be unassailable with simple optimization techniques. Here we develop an automated and optimally parallel Bayesian optimization algorithm that can entirely optimize the target and pulse shape of a direct-drive ICF implosion under a given design paradigm. We use this algorithm to find a markedly improved design for the performance implosions on OMEGA that is predicted to hydroequivalently scale to ignition at 2.15 MJ.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Selecting Critical Scenarios of DER Adoption in Distribution Grids Using Bayesian Optimization

We develop a new methodology to select scenarios of DER adoption most critical for distribution grids. Anticipating risks of future voltage and line flow violations due to additional PV adopters is central for utility investment planning but continues to rely on deterministic or ad hoc scenario selection. We propose a highly efficient search framework based on multi-objective Bayesian Optimization. We treat underlying grid stress metrics as computationally expensive black-box functions, approximated via Gaussian Process surrogates and design an acquisition function based on probability of scenarios being Pareto-critical across a collection of line- and bus-based violation objectives. Our approach provides a statistical guarantee and offers an order of magnitude speed-up relative to a conservative exhaustive search. Case studies on realistic feeders with 200-400 buses demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our approach.

Mulkin, Olivier↗