A Bayesian Approach to Exposure Risk Characterization and Medical Surveillance Decision-Making in the U.S. Department of Energy
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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in scientific machine learning, especially when surrogate models are used to approximate complex systems. Although multilayer perceptions (MLPs) are commonly employed as surrogates, they often suffer from overfitting due to their large number of parameters. Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs) offer an alternative solution with fewer parameters. However, gradient-based inference methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), may result in computational inefficiency when applied to KANs, especially for large-scale datasets, due to the high cost of back-propagation. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach, combining the dropout Tikhonov ensemble Kalman inversion (DTEKI) with Chebyshev KANs. This gradient-free method effectively mitigates overfitting and enhances numerical stability. In addition, we incorporate the active subspace method to reduce the parameter-space dimensionality, allowing us to improve the accuracy of predictions and obtain more reliable uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in various test cases, including scenarios with large datasets and high noise levels. Our results show that the new method achieves comparable or better accuracy, much higher efficiency as well as stability compared to HMC, in addition to scalability. Moreover, by leveraging the low-dimensional parameter subspace, our method preserves prediction accuracy while substantially reducing further the computational cost.
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Analytical techniques such as multicollector—inductively coupled plasma—mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS) are routinely employed at SRNL, other National Laboratories, and in academia to determine the precise isotopic composition of diverse natural and anthropogenic samples (e.g., rocks and nuclear materials). Quantifying and reporting uncertainty in such analyses, while regularly performed, have a rigorous statistical foundation. The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement 4 (GUM) outlines conventional techniques used to assess such uncertainty. As the accessibility and speed of statistical computing increase, there is a need to modernize conventional techniques. For example, Supplement 1 to the 3rd to the GUM suggests the use of approximation methods as an updated approach to the GUM.
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Tuning the accelerator during operational hours is a tedious yet essential aspect of managing any experimental facility. This process significantly reduces the beam time available for experimenters, as diagnosing issues and making corrections can take hours. Automating or facilitating the normal beam line tuning process would be highly beneficial.
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During this work, we adapted the BOSS microphysics scheme, originally formulated for rain-only, to include all warm-phase microphysical processes of cloud and rain, in particular the processes that mediate between these two categories, for example autoconversion and accretion.
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• Thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) is a “gold standard’ technique for actinide isotope amount ratio and assay measurements. • Ubiquitously used in: • Nuclear Nonproliferation • Nuclear Safeguards • Nuclear Forensics • Basic Science • Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) installed a new Thermo Scientific TRITON Plus TIMS in early 2024.