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At least 271 records · Page 15

Chaconne: A Statistical Approach to Nonlocal Compression for Supervised Learning, Semi-Supervised Learning, and Anomaly Detection

This project developed a novel statistical understanding of compression analytics (CA), which has challenged and clarified some core assumptions about CA, and enabled the development of novel techniques that address vital challenges of national security. Specifically, this project has yielded the development of novel capabilities including 1. Principled metrics for model selection in CA, 2. Techniques for deriving/applying optimal classification rules and decision theory to supervised CA, including how to properly handle class imbalance and differing costs of misclassification, 3. Two techniques for handling nonlocal information in CA, 4. A novel technique for unsupervised CA that is agnostic with regard to the underlying compression algorithm, 5. A framework for semisupervised CA when a small number of labels are known in an otherwise large unlabeled dataset. 6. The academic alliance component of this project has focused on the development of a novel exemplar-based Bayesian technique for estimating variable length Markov models (closely related to PPM [prediction by partial matching] compression techniques). We have developed examples illustrating the application of our work to text, video, genetic sequences, and unstructured cybersecurity log files.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

First observation of increased DT yield over prediction due to addition of hydrogen

Here, in a number of reported instances, implosions utilizing fuel mixtures have resulted in anomalously low fusion yields below those predicted by radiation-hydrodynamics simulations. Inter-species ion diffusion has been suggested as a possible cause of the observed yield degradation in fuel mixture implosions. An experimental platform utilizing hydro-equivalent deuterium–tritium (DT), deuterium–tritium–hydrogen (DTH), and deuterium-tritium-helium3 (DT 3 He) capsule implosions was developed to determine whether the inter-species ion diffusion theory may describe the resulting fuel mixture implosion behavior. The implosion experiments were performed at the Omega laser facility. X-ray images and shell areal density diagnostics results show that the hydro-equivalent three capsules (DT, DTH, and DT 3 He) have similar compression behavior. However, nuclear yield deviation was observed from the scaling determined using a fusion yield formula. In the DT 3 He mixture, a reduced yield of a factor of 0.65 ± 0.13 was observed, which is similar to a yield reduction observed in D 3 He mixture by Rygg et al. (i.e., Rygg effect). In contrast, in the DTH mixture, a factor of 1.17 ±0.15 yield increase was observed, which we named the inverse Rygg effect. The yield increase observed in the DTH mixture is consistent with the inter-species ion diffusion theory where lighter H diffuses away from the core and concentrated DT in the core produces higher yield. An inter-species ion diffusion model, the Zimmerman–Paquette–Kagan–Zhdanov model, implemented in a Lagrangian radiation-hydrodynamics fluid code, was also used to analyze the present data, without the need to assume hydrodynamic equivalence of the capsules, but it does not completely explain the DTH or DT 3 He capsules although its effects are in the correct direction. Simulation-based Bayesian inference was used in the latter analysis to quantify the uncertainty in the numerical simulations. The simulation-based analysis resulted in an inferred Rygg-effect yield decrease factor of 0.91 ± 0.02 for the DT 3 He mixture, and an inferred inverse-Rygg yield increase factor of 1.21 ± 0.04 for the DTH mixture, based on simulations ignoring ion diffusion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Effect of surface defects on damage and failure of dynamically driven cylindrical shells

Here, in this work, expanding cylinder experiments are performed using a gas gun on the aluminum 6061 alloy to understand the dynamic deformation and failure behavior of this material in the presence of surface defects in the form of scratches. The experiments are then modeled with the modified Tepla (for tensile plasticity) model, which is equipped with the damage yield function of Gurson [“Continuum theory of ductile rupture by void nucleation and growth: Part I—Yield criteria and flow rules for porous ductile media,” (1977)] and Tvergaard and Needleman [Acta Metall. 32(1), 157–169 (1984)], over-stress viscosity [F. Addessio and J. Johnson, J. Appl. Phys. 74(3), 1640–1648 (1993)], and the underlying viscoplastic model of Preston et al. [J. Appl. Phys. 93(1), 211–220 (2003)] (Preston–Tonks–Wallace model) for the dense material. The Tepla model parameters were calibrated using the Bayesian approach against experimentally measured free-surface velocity data obtained from plate impact experiments on the aluminum 6061 alloy. The evolution of radial expansion and shapes of the deformed cylinder from the simulations on a pristine cylinder wall and a cylinder wall with a longitudinal surface defect shows excellent agreement with the corresponding experimental results. Finally, the role of surface defect size and cylinder wall geometry on the dynamic strength of the cylinder wall was also investigated through a series of simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Decision theory for computing variable and value ordering decisions for scheduling problems

Heuristics that guide search are critical when solving large planning and scheduling problems, but most variable and value ordering heuristics are sensitive to only one feature of the search state. One wants to combine evidence from all features of the search state into a subjective probability that a value choice is best, but there has been no solid semantics for merging evidence when it is conceived in these terms. Instead, variable and value ordering decisions should be viewed as problems in decision theory. This led to two key insights: (1) The fundamental concept that allows heuristic evidence to be merged is the net incremental utility that will be achieved by assigning a value to a variable. Probability distributions about net incremental utility can merge evidence from the utility function, binary constraints, resource constraints, and other problem features. The subjective probability that a value is the best choice is then derived from probability distributions about net incremental utility. (2) The methods used for rumor control in Bayesian Networks are the primary way to prevent cycling in the computation of probable net incremental utility. These insights lead to semantically justifiable ways to compute heuristic variable and value ordering decisions that merge evidence from all available features of the search state.

Linden, Theodore A.↗

Magnetostriction of α-RuCl 3 Flakes in the Zigzag Phase

Motivated by the possibility of enhanced magnetic fluctuations in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 flakes, we study magneto-Raman spectra of exfoliated multilayer α-RuCl 3 in out-of-plane magnetic fields of -6 to 6 T at temperatures of 670 mK to 4 K. While the literature currently suggests that bulk α-RuCl 3 is in an antiferromagnetic zigzag phase with R$\bar3$ symmetry at low temperatures, we do not observe R$\bar3$ symmetry in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 at low temperatures. While we saw no magnetic field-driven transitions, the Raman modes exhibit unexpected stochastic shifts in response to the applied magnetic field that are above the uncertainties inferred from Bayesian analysis. Finally, these stochastic shifts are consistent with the emergence of magnetostrictive interactions in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Toward Question-Asking Machines: The Logic of Questions and the Inquiry Calculus

For over a century, the study of logic has focused on the algebra of logical statements. This work, first performed by George Boole, has led to the development of modern computers, and was shown by Richard T. Cox to be the foundation of Bayesian inference. Meanwhile the logic of questions has been much neglected. For our computing machines to be truly intelligent, they need to be able to ask relevant questions. In this paper I will show how the Boolean lattice of logical statements gives rise to the free distributive lattice of questions thus defining their algebra. Furthermore, there exists a quantity analogous to probability, called relevance, which quantifies the degree to which one question answers another. I will show that relevance is not only a natural generalization of information theory, but also forms its foundation.

Knuth,Kevin H.↗

Evidence for the charge asymmetry in $pp$ → $t\bar{t}$ production at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Inclusive and differential measurements of the top–antitop ($t\bar{t}$) charge asymmetry ${A}_{C}^{t\bar{t}}$ and the leptonic asymmetry ${A}_{C}^{\ell\bar{\ell}}$ are presented in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The measurement uses the complete Run 2 dataset, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 , combines data in the single-lepton and dilepton channels, and employs reconstruction techniques adapted to both the resolved and boosted topologies. A Bayesian unfolding procedure is performed to correct for detector resolution and acceptance effects. The combined inclusive $t\bar{t}$ charge asymmetry is measured to be ${A}_{C}^{t\bar{t}}$ = 0.0068 ± 0.0015, which differs from zero by 4.7 standard deviations. Differential measurements are performed as a function of the invariant mass, transverse momentum and longitudinal boost of the $t\bar{t}$ system. Both the inclusive and differential measurements are found to be compatible with the Standard Model predictions, at next-to-next-to-leading order in quantum chromodynamics perturbation theory with next-to-leading-order electroweak corrections. The measurements are interpreted in the framework of the Standard Model effective field theory, placing competitive bounds on several Wilson coefficients.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Inter-Domain Fusion for Enhanced Intrusion Detection in Power Systems: An Evidence Theoretic and Meta-Heuristic Approach

False alerts due to misconfigured or compromised intrusion detection systems (IDS) in industrial control system (ICS) networks can lead to severe economic and operational damage. However, research using deep learning to reduce false alerts often requires the physical and cyber sensor data to be trustworthy. Implicit trust is a major problem for artificial intelligence or machine learning (AI/ML) in cyber-physical system (CPS) security, because when these solutions are most urgently needed is also when they are most at risk (e.g., during an attack). To address this, the Inter-Domain Evidence theoretic Approach for Inference (IDEA-I) is proposed that reframes the detection problem as how to make good decisions given uncertainty. Specifically, an evidence theoretic approach leveraging Dempster–Shafer (DS) combination rules and their variants is proposed for reducing false alerts. A multi-hypothesis mass function model is designed that leverages probability scores obtained from supervised-learning classifiers. Using this model, a location-cum-domain-based fusion framework is proposed to evaluate the detector’s performance using disjunctive, conjunctive, and cautious conjunctive rules. The approach is demonstrated in a cyber-physical power system testbed, and the classifiers are trained with datasets from Man-In-The-Middle attack emulation in a large-scale synthetic electric grid. For evaluating the performance, we consider plausibility, belief, pignistic, and general Bayesian theorem-based metrics as decision functions. To improve the performance, a multi-objective-based genetic algorithm is proposed for feature selection considering the decision metrics as the fitness function. Finally, we present a software application to evaluate the DS fusion approaches with different parameters and architectures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electronic structure prediction of multi-million atom systems through uncertainty quantification enabled transfer learning

The ground state electron density — obtainable using Kohn-Sham Density Functional Theory (KS-DFT) simulations — contains a wealth of material information, making its prediction via machine learning (ML) models attractive. However, the computational expense of KS-DFT scales cubically with system size which tends to stymie training data generation, making it difficult to develop quantifiably accurate ML models that are applicable across many scales and system configurations. Here, we address this fundamental challenge by employing transfer learning to leverage the multi-scale nature of the training data, while comprehensively sampling system configurations using thermalization. Our ML models are less reliant on heuristics, and being based on Bayesian neural networks, enable uncertainty quantification. We show that our models incur significantly lower data generation costs while allowing confident — and when verifiable, accurate — predictions for a wide variety of bulk systems well beyond training, including systems with defects, different alloy compositions, and at multi-million-atom scales. Moreover, such predictions can be carried out using only modest computational resources.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Calibration and validation of the foundation for a multiphase strength model for tin

In this work, the Common Model of Multi-phase Strength and Equation of State (CMMP) model was applied to tin. Specifically, calibrations of the strength-specific elements of the CMMP foundation were developed with a combination of experiments and theory, and then the model was validated experimentally. The first element of the foundation is a 10 multi-phase analytic treatment of the melt temperature and the shear modulus for the solid phases. These models were parameterized for each phase based on ab initio calculations using the software VASP (Vienna Ab initio Simulations Package) based on density functional theory (DFT). The shear modulus model for the ambient β phase was validated with ultrasonic sound speed measurements as a function of pressure and temperature. The second element of the foundation is a viscoplastic strength model for the β phase, upon which strength for inaccessible higher-pressure phases can be scaled as necessary. The stress-strain response of tin was measured at strain rates of 10 -3 to 3 x 10 3 s -1 and temperatures ranging from 87 to 373 K. The Preston-Tonks-Wallace (PTW) strength model was fit to that data using Bayesian model calibration. For validation, six forward and two reverse Taylor impact experiments were performed at different velocities to measure large plastic deformation of tin at strain rates up to 10 5 s -1 . The PTW model accurately predicted the deformed shapes of the cylinders, with modest discrepancies attributed to the inability 20 of PTW to capture the effects of twinning and dynamic recrystallization. Some material in the simulations of higher velocity Taylor cylinders reached the melting temperature, thus testing the multiphase model because of the presence of a second phase, the liquid. In simulations using a traditional modeling approach, the abrupt reduction of strength upon melt resulted in poor predictions of the deformed shape and non-physical temperatures. With CMMP, the most deformed material points evolved gradually to a mixed solid-liquid but never fully liquid state, never fully lost strength, 25 stayed at the melt temperature as the latent heat of fusion was absorbed, and predicted the deformed shape well.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Uncertainty Quantification in Atomistic Modeling of Metals and Its Effect on Mesoscale and Continuum Modeling: A Review

The design of next-generation alloys through the integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) approach relies on multiscale computer simulations to provide thermodynamic properties when experiments are difficult to conduct. Atomistic methods such as density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) have been successful in predicting properties of never before studied compounds or phases. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) of DFT and MD results is rarely reported due to computational and UQ methodology challenges. Over the past decade, studies that mitigate this gap have emerged. These advances are reviewed in the context of thermodynamic modeling and information exchange with mesoscale methods such as the phase-field method (PFM) and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD). The importance of UQ is illustrated using properties of metals, with aluminum as an example, and highlighting deterministic, frequentist, and Bayesian methodologies. Finally, challenges facing routine uncertainty quantification and an outlook on addressing them are also presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Proton pairing in neutron stars from chiral effective field theory

Here, we study the 1 S 0 proton pairing gap in beta-equilibrated neutron star matter within the framework of chiral effective field theory. We focus on the role of three-body forces, which strongly modify the effective proton-proton spin-singlet interaction in dense matter. We find that three-body forces generically reduce both the size of the pairing gap and the maximum density at which proton pairing may occur. The pairing gap is computed within BCS theory using a single-particle dispersion relation calculated up to second order in perturbation theory. Model uncertainties are estimated by varying the nuclear potential (its order in the chiral expansion and high-momentum cutoff) and the choice of single-particle spectrum in the gap equation. We find that a second-order perturbative treatment of the single-particle spectrum suppresses the proton 1 S 0 pairing gap relative to the use of a free spectrum. We estimate the critical temperature for the onset of proton superconductivity to be T c = (3:2–5:1) 10 9 K, which is consistent with previous theoretical results in the literature and marginally within the range deduced from a recent Bayesian analysis of neutron star cooling observations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Territory and Population Attributes Affect Florida Scrub-Jay Fecundity in Fire Adapted Ecosystems

Fecundity, the number of young produced by a breeding pair during a breeding season, is a primary component in evolutionary and ecological theory and applications. Fecundity can be influenced by many environmental factors and requires long-term study due to the range of variation in ecosystem dynamics. Fecundity data often include a large proportion of zeros when many pairs fail to produce any young during a breeding season due to nest failure or when all young die independently after fledging. We conducted color banding and monthly censuses of Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) across 31 years, 15 populations, and 761 territories along central Florida’s Atlantic coast. We quantified how fecundity (juveniles/pair-year) was influenced by habitat quality, presence/absence of nonbreeders, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall, with a zero-inflated Bayesian hierarchical model including both a Bernoulli (e.g., brood success) and a Poisson (counts of young) submodel, and random effects for year, population, and territory. The results identified the importance of increasing “strong” quality habitat, which was a mid-successional state related to fire frequency and extent, because strong territories, and the proportion of strong territories in the overall population, influenced fecundity of breeding pairs. Populations subject to supplementary feeding also had greater fecundity. Territory size, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall surprisingly had no or small effects. Different mechanisms appeared to cause annual variation in fecundity, as estimates of random effects were not correlated between the success and count submodels. The increased fecundity for pairs with nonbreeders, compared to pairs without, identified empirical research needed to understand how the proportion of low-quality habitats influences population recovery and sustainability, because dispersal into low-quality habitats can drain nonbreeders from strong territories and decrease overall fecundity. We also describe how long term study resulted in reversals in our understanding because of complications involving habitat quality, sociobiology, and population density.

Long-term studies↗

Bayesian blacksmithing: discovering thermomechanical properties and deformation mechanisms in high-entropy refractory alloys

Finding alloys with specific design properties is challenging due to the large number of possible compositions and the complex interactions between elements. This study introduces a multi-objective Bayesian optimization approach guiding molecular dynamics simulations for discovering high-performance refractory alloys with both targeted intrinsic static thermomechanical properties and also deformation mechanisms occurring during dynamic loading. The objective functions are aiming for excellent thermomechanical stability via a high bulk modulus, a low thermal expansion, a high heat capacity, and for a resilient deformation mechanism maximizing the retention of the BCC phase after shock loading. Contrasting two optimization procedures, we show that the Pareto-optimal solutions are confined to a small performance space when the property objectives display a cooperative relationship. Conversely, the Pareto front is much broader in the performance space when these properties have antagonistic relationships. Density functional theory simulations validate these findings and unveil underlying atomic-bond changes driving property improvements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scalable quantum computational science: A perspective from block-encodings and polynomial transformations

Significant developments made in quantum hardware and error correction recently have been driving quantum computing toward practical utility. However, gaps remain between abstract quantum algorithmic development and practical applications in computational sciences. In this perspective article, we propose several properties that scalable quantum computational science methods should possess. We further discuss how block-encodings and polynomial transformations can potentially serve as a unified framework with the desired properties. Recent advancements on these topics are presented, including the construction and assembly of block-encodings, and various generalizations of quantum signal processing (QSP) algorithms to perform polynomial transformations. The scalability of QSP methods on parallel and distributed quantum architectures is also highlighted. Promising applications in simulation and observable estimation in chemistry, physics, and optimization problems are presented. We hope this perspective serves as a gentle introduction to state-of-the-art quantum algorithms for the computational science community and inspires future development of scalable quantum computational science methodologies that bridge theory and practice.

Bayesian inference↗

Searches for New Physics With Muon Conversion at Fermilab and Triboson Production at the LHC

We report on several efforts to search for physics beyond the standard model of particle physics at broad energy scales. The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for charged lepton flavor violation via the muon to electron conversion process, which is suppressed in the Standard Model. Mu2e will be operated at a low energy, yet can probe New Physics at very high mass scales (O(1e3 - 1e4 ) TeV). At high energies, the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC continues to deliver an impressive suite of Standard Model measurements and limits on a variety of New Physics signatures. Mu2e is under construction and slated to collect its first physics data in the coming years. This thesis describes work done during the construction phase of Mu2e and focuses on two critical areas: magnetic field modeling and statistical analysis. We describe a novel method for field modeling which we validate using a simulated dataset representing the expected magnetic field in the Detector Solenoid. This method blends a standard least-squares fitting technique that utilizes physically motivated analytical model functions with a novel physics informed network that is constructed to obey Maxwell’s equations. We show the technique can model the field with an accuracy of 10−7 despite the presence of injected noise in the pseudo-measurements at the 10−5 level. We then present preliminary results of the calibration of 3D Hall probes at the sub-10−4 level. These probes will be used to directly measure the Mu2e Detector Solenoid magnetic field on a sparse grid; these measurements serve as the input to the field model fitting. Finally, we describe the first implementation of both an unbinned shape analysis and a Bayesian interpretation applied to Mu2e pseudo-data. Up to 20% tighter limits can be set by the shape analysis compared to a standard cut & count analysis. The AlCap experiment collected data at PSI in 2015 to measure several important quantities related to nuclear muon capture on an aluminum target, which is a significant background process for Mu2e. The neutron emission from muon capture can introduce background hits in the Mu2e detectors and can increase radiation damage in various elements of the apparatus. We present measurements of the neutron group fluence and mean neutron multiplicity for muon capture on aluminum nuclei. Finally, we discuss an analysis of triboson production at CMS using an Effective Field Theory framework. Standard Model triboson production, which was first observed at CMS in 2020, has a relatively small cross section and provides direct access to both anomalous triple gauge couplings and quartic gauge couplings. These couplings, interpreted in the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, are studied in the present work. We target the boosted regime where the background rate is low and yields are enhanced when dimension-6 and dimension-8 Wilson coefficients are non-zero. We do not observe an excess in the data and therefore set bounds on the Wilson coefficients. For dimension-6 coefficients the tightest observed (expected) bounds are set on cW /Λ2 where Λ is the mass scale of new physics; the bounds are [−0.13, 0.12] TeV−2 ([−0.12, 0.12] TeV−2 ) at 95% CL. The tightest bounds in dimension-8 are set on fT,0 / Λ4 ; the observed (expected) bounds at 95% CL are [−0.63, 0.69] TeV−4 ([−0.54, 0.62] TeV−4 ). Additional results are presented which include scenarios where multiple Wilson coefficients are non-zero, the application of signal model clipping to address unitarity violation in Effective Field Theories, and a novel template fit developed for easier reinterpretation of our results.

Kampa, Cole Erik [Northwestern U. (main)] (ORCID:0↗

A Bayesian framework for adsorption energy prediction on bimetallic alloy catalysts

Abstract For high-throughput screening of materials for heterogeneous catalysis, scaling relations provides an efficient scheme to estimate the chemisorption energies of hydrogenated species. However, conditioning on a single descriptor ignores the model uncertainty and leads to suboptimal prediction of the chemisorption energy. In this article, we extend the single descriptor linear scaling relation to a multi-descriptor linear regression models to leverage the correlation between adsorption energy of any two pair of adsorbates. With a large dataset, we use Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) as the model evidence to select the best linear regression model. Furthermore, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) based on the meaningful convolution of physical properties of the metal-adsorbate complex can be used to predict the baseline residual of the selected model. This integrated Bayesian model selection and Gaussian process regression, dubbed as residual learning, can achieve performance comparable to standard DFT error (0.1 eV) for most adsorbate system. For sparse and small datasets, we propose an ad hoc Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach to make a robust prediction. With this Bayesian framework, we significantly reduce the model uncertainty and improve the prediction accuracy. The possibilities of the framework for high-throughput catalytic materials exploration in a realistic setting is illustrated using large and small sets of both dense and sparse simulated dataset generated from a public database of bimetallic alloys available in Catalysis-Hub.org.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Manifold learning for coarse-graining atomistic simulations: Application to amorphous solids

In this work, we introduce a generalized machine learning framework to probabilistically parameterize upper-scale models in the form of nonlinear PDEs consistent with a continuum theory, based on coarse-grained atomistic simulation data of mechanical deformation and flow processes. The proposed framework utilizes a hypothesized coarse-graining methodology with manifold learning and surrogate-based optimization techniques. Coarse-grained high-dimensional data describing quantities of interest of the multiscale models are projected onto a nonlinear manifold whose geometric and topological structure is exploited for measuring behavioral discrepancies in the form of manifold distances. A surrogate model is constructed using Gaussian process regression to identify a mapping between stochastic parameters and distances. Derivative-free optimization is employed to adaptively identify a unique set of parameters of the upper-scale model capable of rapidly reproducing the system's behavior while maintaining consistency with coarse-grained atomic-level simulations. The proposed method is applied to learn the parameters of the shear transformation zone (STZ) theory of plasticity that describes plastic deformation in amorphous solids as well as coarse-graining parameters needed to translate between atomistic and continuum representations. We show that the methodology is able to successfully link coarse-grained microscale simulations to macroscale observables and achieve a high-level of parity between the models across scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗