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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

Modeling of turbulence for compression corner flows and internal flows

A compressible Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes code is applied to examine the performances of basic turbulence models for unseparated and separated flows. The turbulence models considered are a zero-equation model and several two-equation models, including a new k-epsilon model with an eddy viscosity damping function depending upon the Reynolds number and the distance from the wall. The turbulence models are assessed using the following experimental flows: a channel flow, a backward facing step, and a two-dimensional compression corner at Mach 2.8. Discussions and comparisons of the experimental and numerical results are given. Mesh refinement is shown to have a significant beneficial effect on free shear layer flow results obtained with two-equation turbulence models. The results illustrate the usefulness of several turbulence models as a design tool for fluid engineering systems.

Champney, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Development of seal ring carbon-graphite materials (tasks 5, 6, and 7)

Carbon-graphite seal ring bodies for operation at air temperatures to 1300 F(704 C) were manufactured from three select formulations. Mechanical and thermal properties, porosities, and oxidation rates were measured. The results have shown that: (1) Major property improvements anticipated from the screening studies were not realized because of processing problems associated with the scale-up in material size and probable deterioration of a phenolic resin binder; (2) the mechanical properties of a phenolic resin-bonded, carbon-graphite material can be improved by applying high pressure during carbonization; and (3) the textile form of graphite fiber used as the minor filler component in a carbon-graphite material can beneficially affect mechanical properties.

Fechter, N. J.↗
NASA NTRS1975

User benefits and funding strategies

The justification, economic and technological benefits of NASA Space Programs (aside from pure scientific objectives), in improving the quality of life in the United States is discussed and outlined. Specifically, a three-step, systematic method is described for selecting relevant and highly beneficial payloads and instruments for the Interim Upper Stage (IUS) that will be used with the space shuttle until the space tug becomes available. Viable Government and private industry cost-sharing strategies which would maximize the number of IUS payloads, and the benefits obtainable under a limited NASA budget were also determined. Charts are shown which list the payload instruments, and their relevance in contributing to such areas as earth resources management, agriculture, weather forecasting, and many others.

Archer, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Fouling and the inhibition of salt corrosion

In an attempt to reduce fouling while retaining the beneficial effects of alkaline earth inhibitors on the hot corrosion of superalloys, the use of both additives and the intermittent application of the inhibitors were evaluated. Additions of alkaline earth compounds to combustion gases containing sodium sulfate were shown to inhibit hot corrosion. However, sulfate deposits can lead to turbine fouling in service. For that reason, dual additives and intermittant inhibitor applications were evaluated to reduce such deposit formation. Silicon in conjunction with varium showed some promise. Total deposition was apparently reduced while the inhibition of hot corrosion by barium was unimpaired. The intermittant application of the inhibitor was found to be more effective and controllable.

Deadmore, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A study of metal-ceramic wettability in SiC-Al using dynamic melt infiltration of SiC

Pressure-assisted infiltration with a 2014 Al alloy of plain and Cu-coated single crystal platelets of alpha silicon carbide was used to study particulate wettability under dynamic conditions relevant to pressure casting of metal-matrix composites. The total penetration length of infiltrant metal in porous compacts was measured at the conclusion of solidification as a function of pressure, infiltration time, and SiC size for both plain and Cu-coated SiC. The experimental data were analyzed to obtain a threshold pressure for the effect of melt intrusion through SiC compacts. The threshold pressure was taken either directly as a measure of wettability or converted to an effective wetting angle using the Young-Laplace capillary equation. Cu coating resulted in partial but beneficial improvements in wettability as a result of its dissolution in the melt, compared to uncoated SiC.

Asthana, R.↗
NASA NTRS1949

Spin Investigation of a 1/29-Scale Model of the Republic XF-91 Airplane with a Conventional Tail Installed

An investigation has been conducted in the Langley 20-foot free-spinning tunnel of a 1/29-scale model of the Republic XF-91 airplane with a.conventional-tail arrangement installed. Previously, tests were made on the model with a vee tail installed. The erect spin and recovery characteristics of the model were determined for the normal loading with the wing installed at various amounts of incidence. The spin investigation also included inverted-spin tests, spin-recovery-parachute tests, tests with the center of gravity moved rearward, and tests with external fuel tanks added to the model. In addition, several tail.modifications were tested,on the model in an attempt, to improve the model's spin-recovery characteristics. The results indicate that any fully developed spin obtained on the airplane with the conventional tail installed will be satisfactorily terminated if rudder reversal is accompanied by moving the ailerons with the spin (stick right in a right spin).Decreasing the wing incidence from 6deg to -2deg should have a beneficial effect on the recovery characteristics of the airplane. Recovery characteristics by normal use of controls (full rudder reversal followed by moving the elevators down) will be satisfactory if the wing incidence,of the airplane is -2deg. Installation of external fuel tanks (with or without fuel) will have a somewhat adverse effect on the recovery characteristics of the airplane, but if the recovery technique includes movement of the ailerons to full with the spin, the spin rotation will be terminated rapidly. Varying the position of the center of gravity within the limits indicated to be possible on the airplane should not affect the recovery characteristics.

Klinar, Walter J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Computational Modeling to Limit the Impact Displays and Indicator Lights Have on Habitable Volume Operational Lighting Constraints

NASA has demonstrated an interest in improving astronaut health and performance through the installment of a new lighting countermeasure on the International Space Station. The Solid State Lighting Assembly (SSLA) system is designed to positively influence astronaut health by providing a daily change to light spectrum to improve circadian entrainment. Unfortunately, existing NASA standards and requirements define ambient light level requirements for crew sleep and other tasks, yet the number of light-emitting diode (LED) indicators and displays within a habitable volume is currently uncontrolled. Because each of these light sources has its own unique spectral properties, the additive lighting environment ends up becoming something different from what was planned or researched. Restricting the use of displays and indicators is not a solution because these systems provide beneficial crew feedback.

Clark, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA GRC Compass Team Conceptual Point Design and Trades of a Hybrid Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP)/Chemical Propulsion Human Mars Deep Space Transport (DST) Vehicle

NASA has long been conducting studies which apply different in-space propulsion technology assumptions to the mission of sending humans to Mars. Two of the technologies under study that are considered to be the most near-term with respect to technology readiness level (TRL) are traditional chemical propulsion systems and high-power Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) systems. The benefit of relatively low trip times inherent in using impulsive chemical propulsion systems to perform the full round-trip delta V is hampered by the large propellant mass required to perform these burns for human Mars missions. SEP systems offer the benefit of much lower propellant requirements to perform the same round-trip missions, at the cost of longer trip times. Traditionally, impulsive chemical systems are better suited than SEP when used in a gravity well, and SEP systems are more efficient than traditional impulsive systems when used in interplanetary space. A mission to Mars includes both of these scenarios, and thus several NASA architecture studies performed over the last few years have looked to combine the use of both SEP and chemical propulsion systems where they are the most beneficial to human Mars missions. This combined propulsion system concept has been referred to as a SEP/Chem hybrid Mars Transfer Vehicle and is currently shown as the concept Deep Space Transport (DST) in the March 2017 NASA presentation to the National Aerospace Council (NAC).

human exploration↗
NASA NTRS1997

Experiments in Aircraft Roll-Yaw Control using Forebody Tangential Blowing

Advantages of flight at high angles of attack include increased maneuverability and lift capabilities. These are beneficial not only for fighter aircraft, but also for future supersonic and hypersonic transport aircraft during take-off and landing. At high angles of attack the aerodynamics of the vehicle are dominated by separation, vortex shedding and possibly vortex breakdown. These phenomena severely compromise the effectiveness of conventional control surfaces. As a result, controlled flight at high angles of attack is not feasible for current aircraft configurations. Alternate means to augment the control of the vehicle at these flight regimes are therefore necessary. The present work investigates the augmentation of an aircraft flight control system by the injection of a thin sheet of air tangentially to the forebody of the vehicle. This method, known as Forebody Tangential Blowing (FTB), has been proposed as an effective means of increasing the controllability of aircraft at high angles of attack. The idea is based on the fact that a small amount of air is sufficient to change the separation lines on the forebody. As a consequence, the strength and position of the vortices are altered causing a change on the aerodynamic loads. Although a very effective actuator, forebody tangential blowing is also highly non-linear which makes its use for aircraft control very difficult. In this work, the feasibility of using FTB to control the roll-yaw motion of a wind tunnel model was demonstrated both through simulations and experimentally. The wind tunnel model used in the experiments consists of a wing-body configuration incorporating a delta wing with 70-degree sweep angle and a cone-cylinder fuselage. The model is equipped with forebody slots through which blowing is applied. There are no movable control surfaces, therefore blowing is the only form of actuation. Experiments were conducted at a nominal angle of attack of 45 degrees. A unique apparatus that constrains the model to two degrees-of-freedom, roll and yaw, was designed and built. The apparatus was used to conduct dynamic experiments which showed that the system was unstable, its natural motion divergent. A model for the unsteady aerodynamic loads was developed based on the basic physics of the flow and results from flow visualization experiments. Parameters of the aerodynamic model were identified from experimental data. The model was validated using data from dynamic experiments. The aerodynamic model completes the equations of motion of the system which were used in the design of control laws using blowing as the only actuator. The unsteady aerodynamic model was implemented as part of the real-time vehicle control system. A control strategy using asymmetric blowing was demonstrated experimentally. A discrete vortex method was developed to help understand the main physics of the flow. The method correctly captures the interactions between forebody and wing vortices. Moreover, the trends in static loads and flow structure are correctly represented. Flow visualization results revealed the vortical structure of the flow to be asymmetric even for symmetric flight conditions. The effects of blowing, and roll and yaw angles on the flow structure were determined. It is shown that superimposing symmetric and asymmetric blowing has a linearizing effect on the actuator characteristics. Transient responses of roll and yaw moments to step input blowing were characterized, and their differences were explained based on the physical mechanisms through which these loads are generated.

Pedreiro, Nelson↗
NASA NTRS2001

Dynamic Magnetic Field Applications for Materials Processing

Magnetic fields, variable in time and space, can be used to control convection in electrically conducting melts. Flow induced by these fields has been found to be beneficial for crystal growth applications. It allows increased crystal growth rates, and improves homogeneity and quality. Particularly beneficial is the natural convection damping capability of alternating magnetic fields. One well-known example is the rotating magnetic field (RMF) configuration. RMF induces liquid motion consisting of a swirling basic flow and a meridional secondary flow. In addition to crystal growth applications, RMF can also be used for mixing non-homogeneous melts in continuous metal castings. These applied aspects have stimulated increasing research on RMF-induced fluid dynamics. A novel type of magnetic field configuration consisting of an axisymmetric magnetostatic wave, designated the traveling magnetic field (TMF), has been recently proposed. It induces a basic flow in the form of a single vortex. TMF may find use in crystal growth techniques such as the vertical Bridgman (VB), float zone (FZ), and the traveling heater method. In this review, both methods, RMF and TMF are presented. Our recent theoretical and experimental results include such topics as localized TMF, natural convection dumping using TMF in a vertical Bridgman configuration, the traveling heater method, and the Lorentz force induced by TMF as a function of frequency. Experimentally, alloy mixing results, with and without applied TMF, will be presented. Finally, advantages of the traveling magnetic field, in comparison to the more mature rotating magnetic field method, will be discussed.

Mazuruk, K.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Orthostatic hypotension in patients, bed rest subjects, and astronauts

Orthostatic hypotension after even short space flights has affected a significant number of astronauts. Given the need for astronauts to function at a high level of efficiency during and after their return from space, the application of pharmacologic and other treatments is strongly indicated. This report addresses the clinical problem of orthostatic hypotension and its treatments to ascertain whether pharmacologic or physiologic treatment may be useful in the prevention of orthostatic hypotension associated with space flight. Treatment of orthostatic hypotension in patients now includes increasing intravascular volume with high sodium intake and mineralocorticoids, or increasing vascular resistance through the use of drugs to stimulate alpha or block beta vascular receptors. Earlier treatment used oral sympathomimetic ephedrine hydrochloride alone or with "head-up" bed rest. Then long-acting adrenocortical steroid desoxycorticosterone preparations with high-salt diets were used to expand volume. Fludrocortisone was shown to prevent the orthostatic drop in blood pressure. The combination of the sympathomimetic amine hydroxyamphetamine and a monoamine oxidase inhibitor tranylcypromine has been used, as has indomethacin alone. Davies et al. used mineralocorticoids at low doses concomitantly with alpha-agonists to increase vasoconstrictor action. Schirger et al used tranylcypromine and methylphenidate with or without a Jobst elastic leotard garment or the alpha-adrenergic agonist midodrine (which stimulates both arterial and venous systems without direct central nervous system or cardiac effects). Vernikos et al established that the combination of fludrocortisone, dextroamphetamine, and atropine exhibited a beneficial effect on orthostatic hypotension induced by 7-day 6 degrees head-down bed rest (a model used to simulate the weightlessness of space flight). Thus, there are numerous drugs that, in combination with mechanical techniques, including lower body negative pressure to elevate transmural pressure, could be studied to treat orthostatic hypotension after space flight.

Review↗
NASA NTRS2008

John F. Kennedy Space Center's Technology Development and Application 2006-2007 Report

Topics covered include: Reversible Chemochromic Hydrogen Detectors; Determining Trajectory of Triboelectrically Charged Particles, Using Discrete Element Modeling; Using Indium Tin Oxide To Mitigate Dust on Viewing Ports; High-Performance Polyimide Powder Coatings; Controlled-Release Microcapsules for Smart Coatings for Corrosion Applications; Aerocoat 7 Replacement Coatings; Photocatalytic Coatings for Exploration and Spaceport Design; New Materials for the Repair of Polyimide Electrical Wire Insulation; Commodity-Free Calibration; Novel Ice Mitigation Methods; Crack Offset Measurement With the Projected Laser Target Device; New Materials for Structural Composites and Protective Coatings; Fire Chemistry Testing of Spray-On Foam Insulation (SOFI); Using Aerogel-Based Insulation Material To Prevent Foam Loss on the Liquid-Hydrogen Intertank; Particle Ejection and Levitation Technology (PELT); Electrostatic Characterization of Lunar Dust; Numerical Analysis of Rocket Exhaust Cratering; RESOLVE Projects: Lunar Water Resource Demonstration and Regolith Volatile Characterization; Tribocharging Lunar Soil for Electrostatic Beneficiation; Numerically Modeling the Erosion of Lunar Soil by Rocket Exhaust Plumes; Trajectory Model of Lunar Dust Particles; Using Lunar Module Shadows To Scale the Effects of Rocket Exhaust Plumes; Predicting the Acoustic Environment Induced by the Launch of the Ares I Vehicle; Measuring Ultrasonic Acoustic Velocity in a Thin Sheet of Graphite Epoxy Composite; Hail Size Distribution Mapping; Launch Pad 39 Hail Monitor Array System; Autonomous Flight Safety System - Phase III; The Photogrammetry Cube; Bird Vision System; Automating Range Surveillance Through Radio Interferometry and Field Strength Mapping Techniques; Next-Generation Telemetry Workstation; GPS Metric Tracking Unit; and Space-Based Range.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2024

Flow Cytometry Methods to Monitor Immune System Dysregulation in Astronauts

Persistent immune system dysregulation has been documented to occur in astronauts participating in orbital spaceflight onboard the International Space Station. The phenomenon consists of reductions in T and NK cell function, altered cytokine profiles, persistent inflammation, and the subclinical reactivation of latent herpesviruses. In select crewmembers the dysregulation does actually lead to clinical symptoms, primarily atypical allergy or atopic dermatitis/zoster. Flow cytometry has served a central role defining the ‘immune assessment’ panel of assays that allow monitoring of astronauts. The cytometry assays which have been utilized include: 1. Peripheral leukocyte subsets 2. T cell function 3. Monocyte function 4. NK cell function 5. Intracellular cytokine analysis 6. Virus-specific T cell number (tetramer assay) 7. Virus-specific T cell function (peptide stimulation) 8. Leukocyte-bacterial challenge cytometry 9. Cytometric bead/multiplex array (soluble proteins) The use of these assays has been validated through various ISS flight investigations to define, to varying degrees, both in-flight, and post-flight immune system alterations. The kinetics of the dysregulation through the various phases of spaceflight, as well as post-flight recovery, have also been documented. To allow the science to occur within the orbital constraints of a spaceflight investigation, particular sample collection and processing techniques were developed compatible with the delays associated with terrestrial processing of in-flight samples. A subset of the assays has been adapted to routine monitoring of astronauts via a NASA ‘ISS Standard Measures’ activity, with the data from a specific crew then provided to all science investigators for that particular mission. This battery of cytometry assays has also been applied, through ground investigations, to several terrestrial ‘spaceflight analog’ populations. The purpose was to validate the analog which most closely replicates the in-flight observed pattern of alterations, generally believed to be winterover at an Antarctica station. To assist in determination of clinical risk, the assay panel has also been applied to investigations of various terrestrial patient populations, particularly zoster patients. As NASA is initiating crewed lunar missions via the ‘Artemis’ program, deployment of a miniaturized, microgravity-compatible flow cytometer, would be extremely beneficial to allow real time monitoring of crewmembers. Real time medical data could influence use of several countermeasures options during deep space missions. Several such instruments have been developed and validated to varying degrees of success. Assay details and summary findings across the various flight and ground platforms will be presented, as will current status in developing such technology for in-flight use.

Brian Crucian↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Use of the Molecular Adsorber Coating Technology to Mitigate Vacuum Chamber Contamination During Pathfinder Testing for the James Webb Space Telescope

As a coating made of highly porous zeolite materials, the Molecular Adsorber Coating (MAC) was developed to capture outgassed molecular contaminants, such as hydrocarbons and silicones. For spaceflight applications, the adsorptive capabilities of the coating can alleviate on-orbit outgassing concerns on or near sensitive surfaces and instruments within the spacecraft. Similarly, this sprayable paint technology has proven to be significantly beneficial for ground based space applications, in particular, for vacuum chamber environments. This paper describes the recent use of the MAC technology during Pathfinder testing of the Optical Ground Support Equipment (OGSE) for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). The coating was used as a mitigation tool to entrap persistent outgassed contaminants, specifically silicone based diffusion pump oil, from within JSC's cryogenic optical vacuum chamber test facility called Chamber A. This paper summarizes the sample fabrication, installation, laboratory testing, post-test chemical analysis results, and future plans for the MAC technology, which was effectively used to protect the JWST test equipment from vacuum chamber contamination.

molecular contamination↗
NASA NTRS2005

An Investigation of Two Acoustic Propagation Codes for Three-Dimensional Geometries

The ability to predict fan noise within complex three-dimensional aircraft engine nacelle geometries is a valuable tool in studying low-noise designs. Recent years have seen the development of aeroacoustic propagation codes using various levels of approximation to obtain such a capability. In light of this, it is beneficial to pursue a design paradigm that incorporates the strengths of the various tools. The development of a quasi-3D methodology (Q3D-FEM) at NASA Langley has brought these ideas to mind in relation to the framework of the CDUCT-LaRC acoustic propagation and radiation tool. As more extensive three dimensional codes become available, it would seem appropriate to incorporate these tools into a framework similar to CDUCT-LaRC and use them in a complementary manner. This work focuses on such an approach in beginning the steps toward a systematic assessment of the errors, and hence the trade-offs, involved in the use of these codes. To illustrate this point, CDUCT-LaRC was used to study benchmark hardwall duct problems to quantify errors caused by wave propagation in directions far removed from that defined by the parabolic approximation. Configurations incorporating acoustic treatment were also studied with CDUCT-LaRC and Q3D-FEM. The cases presented show that acoustic treatment diminishes the effects of CDUCT-LaRC phase error as the solutions are attenuated. The results of the Q3D-FEM were very promising and matched the analytic solution very well. Overall, these tests were meant to serve as a step toward the systematic study of errors inherent in the propagation module of CDUCT-LaRC, as well as an initial test of the higher fidelity Q3D-FEM code.

Nark, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Beneficiation of lunar ilmenite

One of the most important commodities lacking in the moon is free oxygen which is required for life and used extensively for propellent. Free oxygen, however, can be obtained by liberating it from the oxides and silicates that form the lunar rocks and regolith. Ilmenite (FeTiO3) is considered one of the leading candidates for production of oxygen because it can be reduced with a reasonable amount of energy and it is an abundant mineral in the lunar regolith and many mare basalts. In order to obtain oxygen from ilmenite, a method must be developed to beneficiate ilmenite from lunar material. Two possible techniques are electrostatic or magnetic methods. Both methods have complications because lunar ilmenite completely lacks Fe(3+). Magnetic methods were tested on eucrite meteorites, which are a good chemical simulant for low Ti mare basalts. The ilmenite yields in the experiments were always very low and the eucrite had to be crushed to xxxx. These data suggest that magnetic separation of ilmenite from fine grain lunar basalts would not be cost effective. Presently, experiments are being performed with electrostatic separators, and lunar regolith is being waited for so that simulants do not have to be employed.

Ruiz, Joaquin↗
NASA NTRS2013

Lunar Sulfur Capture System

The Lunar Sulfur Capture System (LSCS) protects in situ resource utilization (ISRU) hardware from corrosion, and reduces contaminant levels in water condensed for electrolysis. The LSCS uses a lunar soil sorbent to trap over 98 percent of sulfur gases and about two-thirds of halide gases evolved during hydrogen reduction of lunar soils. LSCS soil sorbent is based on lunar minerals containing iron and calcium compounds that trap sulfur and halide gas contaminants in a fixed-bed reactor held at temperatures between 250 and 400 C, allowing moisture produced during reduction to pass through in vapor phase. Small amounts of Earth-based polishing sorbents consisting of zinc oxide and sodium aluminate are used to reduce contaminant concentrations to one ppm or less. The preferred LSCS configuration employs lunar soil beneficiation to boost concentrations of reactive sorbent minerals. Lunar soils contain sulfur in concentrations of about 0.1 percent, and halogen compounds including chlorine and fluorine in concentrations of about 0.01 percent. These contaminants are released as gases such as H2S, COS, CS2,HCl, and HF during thermal ISRU processing with hydrogen or other reducing gases. Removal of contaminant gases is required during ISRU processing to prevent hardware corrosion, electrolyzer damage, and catalyst poisoning. The use of Earth-supplied, single-use consumables to entirely remove contaminants at the levels existing in lunar soils would make many ISRU processes unattractive due to the large mass of consumables relative to the mass of oxygen produced. The LSCS concept of using a primary sorbent prepared from lunar soil was identified as a method by which the majority of contaminants could be removed from process gas streams, thereby substantially reducing the required mass of Earth-supplied consumables. The LSCS takes advantage of minerals containing iron and calcium compounds that are present in lunar soil to trap sulfur and halide gases in a fixedbed reactor downstream of an in-ISRU process such as hydrogen reduction. The lunar-soil-sorbent trap is held at a temperature significantly lower than the operating temperature of the hydrogen reduction or other ISRU process in order to maximize capture of contaminants, but is held at a high enough temperature to allow moisture to pass through without condensing. The lunar soil benefits from physical beneficiation to remove ultrafine particles (to reduce pressure drop through a fixed bed reactor) and to upgrade concentrations of iron and/or calcium compounds (to improve reactivity with gaseous contaminants).

Berggren, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2023

Interpretation of Probabilistic Surface Ozone Forecasts: A Case Study for Philadelphia

The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes difficult, deterring users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts in the field of air quality, a process for interpreting forecasts from a statistical probabilistic air quality surface ozone model [the Regression in Self Organizing Map (REGiS)] is demonstrated. Four procedures to convert probabilistic to deterministic forecasts are explored for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area. These procedures calibrate the predicted probability of daily maximum 8-h-average ozone exceeding a standard value by 1) estimating climatological relative frequency, 2) establishing a probability of an exceedance threshold as 50%, 3) maximizing the threat score, and 4) determining the unit bias ratio. REGiS is trained using 2000–11 ozone-season (1 May–30 September) data, calibrated using 2012–14 data, and evaluated using 2015–18 data. Assessment of the calibration data with the Pierce skill score suggests an exceedance threshold based on climatological relative frequency for the conversion from probabilistic to deterministic forecasts. Calibrated REGiS generally compares well to predictions from the U.S. national air quality model and operational “expert” forecasts over the evaluation period. For other probabilistic models and situations, different procedures of converting probabilistic to deterministic forecasts may be more beneficial. The methods presented in this paper represent an approach for operational air quality forecasters seeking to use probabilistic model output to support forecasts designed to protect public health.

Nikolay Balashov↗