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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Utilizing Expert Knowledge in Estimating Future STS Costs

A method of estimating the costs of future space transportation systems (STSs) involves classical activity-based cost (ABC) modeling combined with systematic utilization of the knowledge and opinions of experts to extend the process-flow knowledge of existing systems to systems that involve new materials and/or new architectures. The expert knowledge is particularly helpful in filling gaps that arise in computational models of processes because of inconsistencies in historical cost data. Heretofore, the costs of planned STSs have been estimated following a "top-down" approach that tends to force the architectures of new systems to incorporate process flows like those of the space shuttles. In this ABC-based method, one makes assumptions about the processes, but otherwise follows a "bottoms up" approach that does not force the new system architecture to incorporate a space-shuttle-like process flow. Prototype software has been developed to implement this method. Through further development of software, it should be possible to extend the method beyond the space program to almost any setting in which there is a need to estimate the costs of a new system and to extend the applicable knowledge base in order to make the estimate.

Fortner, David B.↗
NASA NTRS2010

High Pressure Electrolyzer System Evaluation

This report documents the continuing efforts to evaluate the operational state of a high pressure PEM based electrolyzer located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. This electrolyzer is a prototype system built by General Electric and refurbished by Hamilton Standard (now named Hamilton Sunstrand). It is capable of producing hydrogen and oxygen at an output pressure of 3000 psi. The electrolyzer has been in storage for a number of years. Evaluation and testing was performed to determine the state of the electrolyzer and provide an estimate of the cost for refurbishment. Pressure testing was performed using nitrogen gas through the oxygen ports to ascertain the status of the internal membranes and seals. It was determined that the integrity of the electrolyzer stack was good as there were no appreciable leaks in the membranes or seals within the stack. In addition to the integrity testing, an itemized list and part cost estimate was produced for the components of the electrolyzer system. An evaluation of the system s present state and an estimate of the cost to bring it back to operational status was also produced.

Prokopius, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS2011

Development of Risk Uncertainty Factors from Historical NASA Projects

NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of NASA missions uncertainty factors, from actual historical NASA projects, to aid cost-estimating as well as for independent reviews which provide NASA senior management with information and analysis to determine the appropriate decision regarding P/p. In general terms, this research project advances programmatic analysis for NASA projects.

Amer, Tahani R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nationwide cost and capacity estimates for sedimentary basin geothermal power and implications for geologic CO 2 storage

Sedimentary basins are naturally porous and permeable subsurface formations that underlie approximately half of the United States. In addition to being targets for geologic CO 2 storage, these resources could supply geothermal power: sedimentary basin geothermal heat can be extracted with water or CO 2 and used to generate electricity. The geothermal power potential of these basins and the accompanying implication for geologic CO 2 storage are, however, understudied. Here, we use the Sequestration of CO 2 Tool (SCO2T PRO ) and the generalizable GEOthermal techno-economic simulator (genGEO) to address this gap by a) estimating the cost and capacity of sedimentary basin geothermal power plants across the United States and b) comparing those results to nationwide CO 2 sequestration cost and storage potential estimates. We find that across the United States, using CO 2 as a geothermal heat extraction fluid reduces the cost of sedimentary basin power compared to using water, and some of the lowest cost capacity occurs in locations not typically considered for their geothermal resources (e.g., Louisiana, South Dakota). Additionally, using CO 2 effectively doubles the sedimentary basin geothermal resource base, equating to hundreds of gigawatts of new capacity, by enabling electricity generation in geologies that are otherwise (with water) too impermeable, too thin, too cold, or not deep enough. We find there is competition for the best sedimentary basin resources between water- and CO 2 -based power, but no overlap between the lowest-cost resources for CO 2 storage and CO 2 -based power. In this way, our results suggest that deploying CO 2 -based power may increase the cost of water based systems (by using the best resources) and the cost of CO 2 storage (by storing CO 2 in locations that otherwise may not be targeted). As such, our findings demonstrate that determining the best role for sedimentary basins within the energy transition may require balancing tradeoffs between competing priorities.

CPG↗
DOE OSTI2025

Manufacturing Cost Analysis for PEM Electrolyzers and Perspectives for Future Cost Reduction

Electrolyzer capital costs strongly influence the total levelized cost of hydrogen production and have implications for hydrogen deployment. Current electrolyzer costs are high, and large cost reductions may be needed to achieve competitive hydrogen costs and targets. Understanding pathways for cost reduction via R&D and deployment is a critical research area for informed energy planning and enabling hydrogen use. This work presents bottom-up cost estimates of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems tied to design specifications and discusses perspectives for cost reduction opportunities based on ongoing research. We use a detailed manufacturing and process model for a 1 MW PEM electrolyzer stack and balance of plant (BOP) for rigorous cost estimation. This allows for robust estimates of component and manufacturing costs and examination of key cost contributors. Stack costs are dominated by material costs such as iridium and platinum catalysts, especially at high manufacturing rates; power electronics and hydrogen purification equipment are the largest contributors to BOP cost. At higher manufacturing rates, better equipment utilization could reduce stack costs significantly, and we estimate that experience and bulk purchasing will allow for cost reductions to some BOP components. Still, many well-established BOP technologies and stack material costs are less likely to see significant cost reductions at high manufacturing rates. As such, manufacturing scale is limited in how much it can reduce electrolyzer costs, and additional advances for cost reduction may be needed to achieve cost targets. It will likely take many combined strategies to achieve significant cost reductions for electrolyzers and enable low-cost hydrogen production. We can use our manufacturing cost model to quantify potential cost reductions from the considerations described above and demonstrate pathways to lower cost electrolyzers. This allows for better understanding of cost reduction strategies and enables more informed research, development, and deployment for electrolyzers.

cost↗
NASA NTRS2000

Scheduling and Estimating the Cost of Crew Time

In a previous paper, Theory and Application of the Equivalent System Mass Metric, Julie Levri, David Vaccari, and Alan Drysdale developed a method for computing the Equivalent System Mass (ESM) of crew time. ESM is an analog of cost. The suggested approach has been applied but seems to impose too high a cost for small additional requirements for crew time. The proposed method is based on the minimum average cost of crew time. In this work, the scheduling of crew time is examined in more detail, using suggested crew time allocations and daily work schedules. Crew tasks are typically assigned using priorities, which can also be used to construct a crew time demand curve mapping the value or cost per hour versus the total number of hours worked. The cost of additional crew time can be estimated by considering the intersection and shapes of the demand and supply curves. If e assume a mathematical form for the demand curve, a revised method can be developed for computing the cost or ESM of crew time. This method indicates a low cost per hour for small additional requirements for crew time and an increasing cost per hour for larger requirements.

Jones, Harry↗
NASA NTRS2002

The structure of the software cost function

It is the purpose of this paper to analyze the structure of the cost estimating relationships that commercial cost models use and to test whether they are viable cost functions.

cost function cost estimating relationship wage ra↗
NASA NTRS1978

Handbook for estimating fabrication costs

Guide helps design engineers determine total cost of fabricating electronic equipment. It contains tables of "factors" for determining costs associated with fabrication. "Standards" section includes estimations of time required for procedures ranging from machining, to wiring, to printed-circuit board fabrication.

Freeman, L. M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Project resource reallocation algorithm

A methodology for adjusting baseline cost estimates according to project schedule changes is described. An algorithm which performs a linear expansion or contraction of the baseline project resource distribution in proportion to the project schedule expansion or contraction is presented. Input to the algorithm consists of the deck of cards (PACE input data) prepared for the baseline project schedule as well as a specification of the nature of the baseline schedule change. Output of the algorithm is a new deck of cards with all work breakdown structure block and element of cost estimates redistributed for the new project schedule. This new deck can be processed through PACE to produce a detailed cost estimate for the new schedule.

Myers, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A fixed collector employing reversible vee-trough concentrator and a vacuum tube receiver for high temperature solar energy systems

A solar heat collection system employing non-tracking reflectors integrated with a fixed vacuum tube receiver which achieves modest year-round concentration (about 2) of the sunlight at low capital costs is discussed. The axis of the vee-trough reflector lies in a east-west direction and requires reversal of the reflector surfaces only twice a year without disturbing the receiver tubes and associated plumbing. It collects most of the diffuse flux. The vacuum tube receiver with selective absorber has no convection losses while radiation and conduction losses are minimal. Significant cost reductions are offered since the vee-trough can be fabricated from inexpensive polished or plastic reflector laminated sheet metal covering 2/3 of the collection area, and only about 1/3 of the area is covered with the more expensive vacuum tube receivers. Thermal and economic performance of the vee-trough vacuum tube system, year-round variation of the concentration factor, incident flux, useful heat per unit area at various operation temperatures and energy cost estimates are presented. The electrical energy cost is estimated to be 77 mills/kWh, and the system construction cost is estimated to be $1140/kWe.

Selcuk, M. K.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Assessment of industrial applications for fuel cell cogeneration systems

The fuel cell energy systems are designed with and without a utility connection for emergency back-up power. Sale of electricity to the utility during periods of low plant demand is not considered. For each of the three industrial applications, conceptual designs were also developed for conventional utility systems relying on purchased electric power and fossil-fired boilers for steam/hot water. The capital investment for each energy system is estimated. Annual operating costs are also determined for each system. These cost estimates are converted to levelized annual costs by applying appropriate economic factors. The breakeven electricity price that would make fuel cell systems competitive with the conventional systems is plotted as a function of naphtha price. The sensitivity of the breakeven point to capital investment and coal price is also evaluated.

Stickles, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) program planning and evaluation methodology development

An Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project Management Plan (PMP) is prepared. An ESDIS Project Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) consistent with the developed PMP is also prepared. ESDIS and related EOS program requirements developments, management and analysis processes are evaluated. Opportunities to improve the effectiveness of these processes and program/project responsiveness to requirements are identified. Overall ESDIS cost estimation processes are evaluated, and recommendations to improve cost estimating and modeling techniques are developed. ESDIS schedules and scheduling tools are evaluated. Risk assessment, risk mitigation strategies and approaches, and use of risk information in management decision-making are addressed.

Dickinson, William B.↗
NASA NTRS2004

CMC Property Variability and Life Prediction Methods for Turbine Engine Component Application

The ever increasing need for lower density and higher temperature-capable materials for aircraft engines has led to the development of Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs). Today's aircraft engines operate with >3000"F gas temperatures at the entrance to the turbine section, but unless heavily cooled, metallic components cannot operate above approx.2000 F. CMCs attempt to push component capability to nearly 2700 F with much less cooling, which can help improve engine efficiency and performance in terms of better fuel efficiency, higher thrust, and reduced emissions. The NASA Glenn Research Center has been researching the benefits of the SiC/SiC CMC for engine applications. A CMC is made up of a matrix material, fibers, and an interphase, which is a protective coating over the fibers. There are several methods or architectures in which the orientation of the fibers can be manipulated to achieve a particular material property objective as well as a particular component geometric shape and size. The required shape manipulation can be a limiting factor in the design and performance of the component if there is a lack of bending capability of the fiber as making the fiber more flexible typically sacrifices strength and other fiber properties. Various analysis codes are available (pcGINA, CEMCAN) that can predict the effective Young's Moduli, thermal conductivities, coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE), and various other properties of a CMC. There are also various analysis codes (NASAlife) that can be used to predict the life of CMCs under expected engine service conditions. The objective of this summer study is to utilize and optimize these codes for examining the tradeoffs between CMC properties and the complex fiber architectures that will be needed for several different component designs. For example, for the pcGINA code, there are six variations of architecture available. Depending on which architecture is analyzed, the user is able to specify the fiber tow size, tow spacing, weave parameter, and angle of orientation of fibers. By holding the volume fraction of the fibers constant, variations in tow spacing can be explored for different architectures. The CMC material properties are usually calculated assuming the component is manufactured perfectly. However, this is typically not the case so that a quantification of the material property variability is needed to account for processing and/or manufacturing imperfections. The overall inputs and outputs are presented using a regression software to rapidly investigate the tradeoffs associated with fiber architecture, material properties, and ultimately cost. This information is then propagated through lifing models and Larson-Miller data to assess timehemperature-dependent CMC strength. In addition, a first order cost estimation will be quantified from a current qualitative perspective. This cost estimation includes the manufacturing challenges, such as tooling, as well as the component cost for a particular application. Ultimately, a cost to performance ratio should be established that compares the effectiveness of CMCs to their current rival, nickel superalloys.

Cheplak, Matthew L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Software Transition Project Retrospectives and the Application of SEL Effort Estimation Model and Boehm's COCOMO to Complex Software Transition Projects

The Multimission Image Processing Subsystem (MIPS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has managed transitions of application software sets from one operating system and hardware platform to multiple operating systems and hardware platforms. As a part of these transitions, cost estimates were generated from the personal experience of in-house developers and managers to calculate the total effort required for such projects. Productivity measures have been collected for two such transitions, one very large and the other relatively small in terms of source lines of code. These estimates used a cost estimation model similar to the Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) Effort Estimation Model. Experience in transitioning software within JPL MIPS have uncovered a high incidence of interface complexity. Interfaces, both internal and external to individual software applications, have contributed to software transition project complexity, and thus to scheduling difficulties and larger than anticipated design work on software to be ported.

SEL Boehm COCOMO↗
NASA NTRS2012

Integrating Efficiency of Industry Processes and Practices Alongside Technology Effectiveness in Space Transportation Cost Modeling and Analysis

This paper presents past and current work in dealing with indirect industry and NASA costs when providing cost estimation or analysis for NASA projects and programs. Indirect costs, when defined as those costs in a project removed from the actual hardware or software hands-on labor; makes up most of the costs of today's complex large scale NASA space/industry projects. This appears to be the case across phases from research into development into production and into the operation of the system. Space transportation is the case of interest here. Modeling and cost estimation as a process rather than a product will be emphasized. Analysis as a series of belief systems in play among decision makers and decision factors will also be emphasized to provide context.

Zapata, Edgar↗
DOE OSTI2024

Site-specific Design Case Study for Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2008

Launching Science: Science Opportunities Provided by NASA's Constellation System

In 2004 NASA began implementation of the first phases of a new space exploration policy. This implementation effort included the development of a new human-carrying spacecraft, known as Orion; the Altair lunar lander; and two new launch vehicles, the Ares I and Ares V rockets.collectively called the Constellation System (described in Chapter 5 of this report). The Altair lunar lander, which is in the very preliminary concept stage, is not discussed in detail in the report. In 2007 NASA asked the National Research Council (NRC) to evaluate the science opportunities enabled by the Constellation System. To do so, the NRC established the Committee on Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA's Constellation System. In general, the committee interpreted "Constellation-enabled" broadly, to include not only mission concepts that required Constellation, but also those that could be significantly enhanced by Constellation. The committee intends this report to be a general overview of the topic of science missions that might be enabled by Constellation, a sort of textbook introduction to the subject. The mission concepts that are reviewed in this report should serve as general examples of kinds of missions, and the committee s evaluation should not be construed as an endorsement of the specific teams that developed the mission concepts or of their proposals. Additionally, NASA has a well-developed process for establishing scientific priorities by asking the NRC to conduct a "decadal survey" for a particular discipline. Any scientific mission that eventually uses the Constellation System will have to be properly evaluated by means of this decadal survey process. The committee was impressed with the scientific potential of many of the proposals that it evaluated. However, the committee notes that the Constellation System has been justified by NASA and selected in order to enable human exploration beyond low Earth orbit.not to enable science missions. Virtually all of the science mission concepts that could take advantage of Constellation s unique capabilities are likely to be prohibitively expensive. Several times in the past NASA has begun ambitious space science missions that ultimately proved too expensive for the agency to pursue. Examples include the Voyager-Mars mission and the Prometheus program and its Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter spacecraft (both examples are discussed in Chapter 1). Finding: The scientific missions reviewed by the committee as appropriate for launch on an Ares V vehicle fall, with few exceptions, into the "flagship" class of missions. The preliminary cost estimates, based on mission concepts that at this time are not very detailed, indicate that the costs of many of the missions analyzed will be above $5 billion (in current dollars). The Ares V costs are not included in these estimates. All of the costs discussed in this report are presented in current-year (2008) dollars, not accounting for potential inflation that could occur between now and the decade in which these missions might be pursued. In general, preliminary cost estimates for proposed missions are, for many reasons, significantly lower than the final costs. Given the large cost estimates for many of the missions assessed in this report, the potentially large impacts on NASA's budget by many of these missions are readily apparent.

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