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Identification and quantification of distinct active sites in Hf-Beta zeolites for transfer hydrogenation catalysis

Despite the significant progress made in characterizing different framework heteroatom sites that exist in Lewis acidic zeolites with probe molecule adsorption and spectroscopy, methods to reliably quantify site counts remain indefinite and have been primarily limited to Sn and Ti Lewis acid sites. Here, methods to quantify framework Lewis acidic Hf 4+ sites in zeolite Beta (Hf-Beta) with two Lewis base titrants (pyridine, deuterated acetonitrile) were developed using infrared (IR) spectroscopy. Lewis acid site counts for Hf-Beta zeolites were validated by measuring integrated molar extinction coefficients (IMECs; ε, cm μmol –1 ) on Sn-Beta zeolites using identical Lewis base titrants to benchmark site counts with established literature procedures to quantify Lewis acid sites in Beta zeolites from IR spectra. Highlighting the importance of benchmarking active site counts against well-established experimental protocols, IMECs of CD 3 CN bound to open (ε(Sn; 2316 cm –1 ): 1.80 ± 0.25) and closed (ε(Sn; 2308 cm –1 ): 3.76 ± 0.33) Sn sites were ~1.8x larger than those previously reported while total Lewis acid site counts agreed with those measured by pyridine (ε(Sn; 1451 cm –1 ): 1.58 ± 0.16) on six different Sn-Beta zeolites. IMECs measured for IR peaks reflecting pyridine bound to Lewis acidic Hf sites (ε(Hf; 1448 cm –1 ): 1.54 ± 0.21) and CD 3 CN bound to open (ε(Hf; 2313 cm –1 ): 2.40 ± 0.22) and closed (ε(Hf; 2307 cm –1 ): 3.55 ± 0.41) Hf sites, gave similar counts for the total number of Lewis acidic sites across six Hf-Beta zeolites (Si/Hf = 100–413). Consistent with previous reports with Sn-Beta catalysts where open Sn sites are responsible for catalytic turnover, apparent first and zero-order MPVO rate constants (0.01–1 M cyclohexanone in 2-butanol; per total Hf, 373 K) correlated with the total number of open Hf sites, per total Hf, but not with the total number of closed Hf sites or total Lewis acid site counts. Measured initial MPVO rates (0.1 M cyclohexanone in 2-butanol, per open Hf, 373 K) were ~25x higher on hydrophobic Hf-Beta-F than on hydrophilic Hf-Beta-OH zeolites. Overall, the apparent first-order MPVO rate constants (2-butanol solvent, per open Hf, 373 K) were ~6x higher on Hf-Beta-F than on Hf-Beta-OH zeolites. The characterization methods reported here enable normalization of MPVO turnover rates on Sn- and Hf-Beta zeolites by their number of open sites. Finally, this enables performing quantitative rate comparisons across Lewis acid zeolites of varying active site identity, solvation, and pore topology used in liquid-phase catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Data analytics for leak detection in a subcritical boiler

For decades, boiler leaks have been the leading cause of forced outages in the coal-fired unit. The leak occurrences are currently escalating since the existing plants must satisfy faster-ramping rates to support grid operation. Data analytics including Principal Component Analysis, Canonical Variate, and Fisher Discriminant Analysis were combined for detecting and characterizing the leak in a commercial 650 MW subcritical coal-fired power plant. The combined approach was shown to be highly effective in the fault investigation that would not have been easily achieved by an individual technique. The variability in both training and validation datasets was first evaluated using PCA. Then, the CV-FDA was employed to discriminate among faults, and to categorize the processed data into two main groups: no-leak (0) and leak (1), providing the timeframe and location of the leak occurrence. Furthermore, about 8,014 observations from 81 process variables were initially included in the calculation, while the variable count was reduced to 4 with less than 1% misclassification rate in total observations. Finally, the leak was isolated in the waterwall section. Thus, the outcome of this research may provide early detection and isolation of faulty operations in the coal-fired power plant that involves a considerable number of process variables.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

A zone-level occupancy counting system for commercial office spaces using low-resolution time-of-flight sensors

Understanding the locations of occupants in a commercial built environment is critical for realizing energy savings by delivering lighting, heating, and cooling only where it is needed. In this paper, we present an indoor occupancy counting system using a sparse array of inexpensive, low-resolution, and privacy-preserving time-of-flight sensors. We develop and validate an algorithm for zonal occupancy counting that can deal with multiple people walking underneath the sensors in arbitrary directions, and evaluate the system both in realistic simulations of office spaces and in a real-world installation. Finally, we found that our system has an error rate of around 0.4%, resulting in highly accurate person localization and zone counting using only a few sensors per space.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluation of a Surface Spill Operation to Return Adult Steelhead Overshoots Downstream of McNary Dam

This study, funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate the efficacy of operating one Top Spill Weir (TSW) at McNary Dam outside the normal TSW operation dates for juvenile salmon passage. Of interest is whether the TSW is an effective downstream passage route for adult steelhead overshoots. Overshoots are fish which, having passed upstream at McNary Dam, must pass downstream to return to their natal stream to spawn. This report covers Fall (2019) and Spring (2020) study periods. The study design arranged the available 24 hours of TSW spill per week into weekly blocks with sub-blocks differentiated into day and night operations with TSW discharge periods of 4- and 8-hours duration. Hydroacoustic techniques were used to sample adult fish passage at the TSW and at turbine units 1 and 10. The experimental design contrasted TSW spill periods of differing duration and at different times of the day. The small number of fish detected passing the TSW, and the smaller number of fish detected passing the turbine units, were best suited to an ad hoc, exploratory approach to evaluating the effect of TSW spill. It is worthwhile to note that the operations data obtained for the fall study period had a greater than expected number of gaps and apparent anomalies that we believe were a result of how the data were aggregated. These problems are not particularly problematic for the present study, because the available data still provide a good indication of whether the TSW was operating at each point in time. TSW flows in both fall and spring data sets were able to be cleaned up using the established relationship between forebay elevation and TSW discharge rate. Additional cleanup of operations data would be needed, however, if more quantitative evaluation of dam-wide flow and passage relationships were needed. This study contrasted TSW spill periods of differing duration and at different times of the day. The small number of fish detected passing the TSW, and the smaller number of fish detected passing the turbine units were best suited to an ad hoc, exploratory approach to evaluating the effect of TSW spill. Spring adult steelhead passage numbers estimated using hydroacoustics were notably lower than during the fall study period, and that was consistent with our analysis of PIT tagged fish likely to be in the vicinity during each study period. Detections of fish in BlueView sampling areas upstream of the TSW and powerhouse were not correlated with detections of fish passing hydroacoustic sampling areas, which suggests that fish approaching the face of the dam can move around the forebay before passing. Other fish detected in the forebay in large numbers, such as shad, were able to be filtered out of steelhead passage counts and did not appear to be influencing hydroacoustic passage rate estimates. A pulse of passage at the initial TSW opening was weakly evident, but trends across 4- and 8-hour operational periods did not show a distinct decline in passage over time as TSW operation continued. Our findings do not indicate a reason to choose one 8-hour period over two 4-hour periods, or vice versa. This suggests that the duration of spill periods can be chosen based on operational or other considerations. Passage rates were consistently higher during the daytime TSW discharge periods, relative to nighttime TSW discharge periods. The experimental design of the current study used start times near dawn for day periods and near dusk for night periods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Reaction Rate Ratios for Recent Fast Metal Experiments with Large Plutonium Masses

Reaction rate ratios are integral responses that are used within the criticality experiments field because they contain spectral information. While these types of measurements have been utilized for nuclear data validation with historic experiments, few experiments of this type have been utilized for recent experiments, as few exist. This work focuses on measured reaction rate ratios for two nearly bare plutonium critical assemblies with different geometries: one that is cube like (with a Pu mass of 40 kg) and one that is slab like (with a Pu mass of 109 kg). Irradiations were performed with both configurations in which foils were placed near the center of the assembly. Plutonium, highly enriched uranium, depleted uranium, and Au foils were included in the irradiation and counted via high-purity germanium detectors. From these measurements, reaction rate ratios were calculated. Measured and simulated values and uncertainties are presented for the reaction rate ratios. Ratios utilizing the following reactions are given in this work: 197 Au(n, γ), 197 Au(n,2n), 235 U(n,fission), 238 U(n, fission), 238 U(n,2n), 238 U(n,γ), and 239 Pu(n,fission). Uncertainties for the measured reaction rate ratios ranged from 4% to 7%, and the contribution of various parameters to this uncertainty was investigated. The results are compared to historical experiments and should be used for nuclear data validation for future nuclear data library releases. These measurements are part of the EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) project, which utilizes measurement responses in addition to k eff (such as these reaction rate ratios) to help reduce uncertainties in 239 Pu nuclear data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Counting generations in birth and death processes with competing Erlang and exponential waiting times

Lymphocyte populations, stimulated in vitro or in vivo, grow as cells divide. Stochastic models are appropriate because some cells undergo multiple rounds of division, some die, and others of the same type in the same conditions do not divide at all. If individual cells behave independently, then each cell can be imagined as sampling from a probability density of times to division and death. The exponential density is the most mathematically and computationally convenient choice. It has the advantage of satisfying the memoryless property, consistent with a Markov process, but it overestimates the probability of short division times. With the aim of preserving the advantages of a Markovian framework while improving the representation of experimentally-observed division times, we consider a multi-stage model of cellular division and death. We use Erlang-distributed (or, more generally, phase-type distributed) times to division, and exponentially distributed times to death. We classify cells into generations, using the rule that the daughters of cells in generation n are in generation n + 1. In some circumstances, our representation is equivalent to established models of lymphocyte dynamics. We find the growth rate of the cell population by calculating the proportions of cells by stage and generation. The exponent describing the late-time cell population growth, and the criterion for extinction of the population, differs from what would be expected if N steps with rate λ were equivalent to a single step of rate λ/N. We link with a published experimental dataset, where cell counts were reported after T cells were transferred to lymphopenic mice, using Approximate Bayesian Computation. In the comparison, the death rate is assumed to be proportional to the generation and the Erlang time to division for generation 0 is allowed to differ from that of subsequent generations. The multi-stage representation is preferred to a simple exponential in posterior distributions, and the mean time to first division is estimated to be longer than the mean time to subsequent divisions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Preferential Direction of Electron Transfers at a Dye–Metal Oxide Interface with an Insulating Fluorinated Self-Assembled Monolayer and MgO

Slowing non-desirable electron transfer reactions at metal oxide-dye interfaces is important for many technologies. Specifically, after an interfacial photoinduced charge separation event at a metal oxide-dye interface, it is critically important to limit the rate of electron transfer reactions back to sensitizers and to limit electron transfer reactions between the electrolyte and the metal oxide. Ruthenium-based dyes at metal oxide interfaces are widely used in many fields; however, these dyes often have poor surface insulation resulting in fast recombination kinetics with transition metal-based redox shuttles in an electrolyte. This work explores two semiconductor surface modification strategies designed to minimize recombination events of electrons in TiO 2 with oxidized redox shuttles using a fluorinated siloxane insulator (PFTS) and a metal oxide insulator (MgO) with a well-known Ru dye, B11. Additionally, the influence of these treatments on the rate and duration of photoinduced interfacial charge separation at the TiO 2 -dye interface was examined. The TiO 2 -dye-redox shuttle systems were studied via dye-sensitized solar cell current-voltage curve, incident photon-to-current conversion efficiency, small-modulated photovoltage transient, time-correlated single photon counting, and transient absorption spectroscopy measurements. MgO was found to decrease the rate of the electron transfer reaction from the metal oxide to the electrolyte, decrease the rate of the electron transfer reaction to the oxidized dye from TiO 2 , increase the electron transfer reaction rate from a reduced redox shuttle to an oxidized dye, and decrease the electron injection rate from the photoexcited dye to TiO2. Interestingly, PFTS was found to desirably improve on these rates relative to MgO or untreated TiO 2 . Here, a model based on electrostatic interactions is presented to explain the exceptional behavior of PFTS with DFT computational analysis of PFTS supporting this model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗

High temporal resolution estimates of Arctic snowfall rates emphasizing gauge and radar-based retrievals from the MOSAiC expedition

This article presents the results of snowfall rate and accumulation estimates from a vertically pointing 35-GHz radar and other sensors deployed during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. The radar-based retrievals are the most consistent in terms of data availability and are largely immune to blowing snow. The total liquid-equivalent accumulation during the snow accumulation season is around 110 mm, with more abundant precipitation during spring months. About half of the total accumulation came from weak snowfall with rates less than approximately 0.2 mmh–1. The total snowfall estimates from a Vaisala optical sensor aboard the icebreaker are similar to those from radar retrievals, though their daily and monthly accumulations and instantaneous rates varied significantly. Compared to radar retrievals and the icebreaker optical sensor data, measurements from an identical optical sensor at an ice camp are biased high. Blowing snow effects, in part, explain differences. Weighing gauge measurements significantly overestimate snowfall during February–April 2020 as compared to other sensors and are not well suited for estimating instantaneous snowfall rates. The icebreaker optical disdrometer estimates of snowfall rates are, on average, relatively little biased compared to radar retrievals when raw particle counts are available and appropriate snowflake mass-size relations are used. These counts, however, are not available during periods that produced more than a third of the total snowfall. While there are uncertainties in the radar-based retrievals due to the choice of reflectivity-snowfall rate relations, the major error contributor is the uncertainty in the radar absolute calibration. The MOSAiC radar calibration is evaluated using comparisons with other radars and liquid water cloud–drizzle processes observed during summer. Overall, this study describes a consistent, radar-based snowfall rate product for MOSAiC that provides significant insight into Central Arctic snowfall and can be used for many other purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decay Curve Correction Analysis Report

The decay curve analysis that is done on the short-lived radionuclide gas samples is used to differentiate between gaseous radionuclides that have the same characteristic gamma decay energy, 511 kiloelectron-volts (keV). A sample of stack gas is isolated and the total counts in the 511 keV peak are counted repeatedly in 10-second intervals to evaluate the decay rate of the sample over time. Analysis of this decay data required a series of steps. First, a raw data report is generated by the gamma acquisition system, based on an analysis template within the acquisition software. The data report file was then loaded into Microsoft Word, and a macro was used to perform minor formatting (remove colons and insert tabs between data columns) to allow analysis within Excel. The file is then saved as a text file at this point. The text file is then uploaded into Excel and a series of macros are used to add labels, calculate radioactive decay constants, and analyze the gamma decay data using linear regression techniques. The analysis template has been used since 1998 for stack 53000303 (TA-53, building 0003, exhaust stack 03) and 2000 for stack 53000702. The overall process, including the gamma report format and the macros used in Word and Excel for processing the report, had remained unchanged until 2015. In October of 2015, staff made a change to the report template in the gamma acquisition software which resulted in an error in the calculations later performed by the Excel macro. This error was not caught until a more in-depth review of the analysis took place regarding 2020 data. This report covers a much more complete review of the issue that occurred regarding the decay curve analysis, a review of the calculations completed to correct the issue, a review of the updated decay curve analysis process, and recommendations for moving forward.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

On the Speed-up of Wave-like Dark Matter Searches with Entangled Qubits

Qubit-based sensing platforms offer promising new directions for wave-like dark matter searches. Recent proposals demonstrate that entangled qubits can achieve quadratic scaling of the signal in the number of qubits. In this work we expand on these proposals to analyze the bandwidth and scan rate performance of entangled qubit protocols across different error regimes. We find that the phase-based readout of entangled protocols preserves the search bandwidth independent of qubit number, in contrast to power-based detection schemes, thereby achieving a genuine scan-rate advantage. We derive coherence time and error rate requirements for qubit systems to realize this advantage. Applying our analysis to dark photon searches, we find that entangled states of approximately 100 qubits can become competitive with benchmark photon-counting cavity experiments for masses $\gtrsim 30{-}40~μ{\rm eV}$, provided sufficiently low error rates are achieved. The advantage increases at higher masses where cavity volume scaling becomes less favorable.

Bodas, Arushi [Fermilab; Chicago U.] (ORCID:000000↗

Misclassification of primary liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors

Primary liver cancer is difficult to diagnose accurately at death, due to metastases from nearby organs and to concomitant diseases, such as chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Trends in diagnostic accuracy could affect radiation risk estimates for incident liver cancer by altering background rates or by impacting risk modification by sex and age. We quantified the potential impact of death‐certificate inaccuracies on radiation risk estimates for liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors. True‐positive and false‐negative rates were obtained from a previous study that compared death‐certificate causes of death with those based on pathological review, from 1958 to 1987. We assumed various scenarios for misclassification rates after 1987. We obtained estimated true positives and estimated false negatives by stratified sampling from binomial distributions with probabilities given by the true‐positive and false‐negative rates, respectively. Poisson regression methods were applied to highly stratified person‐year tables of corrected case counts and accrued person years. During the study period (1958–2009), there were 1,885 cases of liver cancer, which included 383 death‐certificate‐only (DCO) cases; 1,283 cases with chronic liver disease as the underlying cause of death; and 150 DCO cases of pancreatic cancer among 105,444 study participants. Across the range of scenarios considered, radiation risk estimates based on corrected case counts were attenuated, on average, by 13–30%. Our results indicated that radiation risk estimates for liver cancer were potentially sensitive to death‐certificate inaccuracies. Additional data are needed to inform misclassification rates in recent years.

French, Benjamin↗

OR22-Neuromorphic Rad Detector-PD3Ra (Final Report)

In unattended monitoring scenarios, automated radiation detection algorithms must be able to detect low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) anomalies in a potentially dynamic and noisy background and report these anomalies in a timely fashion. Dynamic and noisy backgrounds complicate the use of simple gross-counting algorithms because they can lead to either high false positive rates or low sensitivity. Algorithms that use the entire spectrum have been the most successful in this area; notable examples are the NSCRAD algorithm developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and recently the nonnegative matrix factorization approach developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). These approaches use either spectral regions of interest or spectral decomposition to detect threat isotopes in the background.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Publication and Impact of Preprints Included in the First 100 Editions of the CDC COVID-19 Science Update: Content Analysis

Preprints are publicly available manuscripts posted to various servers that have not been peer reviewed. Although preprints have existed since 1961, they have gained increased popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic due to the need for immediate, relevant information. The aim of this study is to evaluate the publication rate and impact of preprints included in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 Science Update and assess the performance of the COVID-19 Science Update team in selecting impactful preprints. All preprints in the first 100 editions (April 1, 2020, to July 30, 2021) of the Science Update were included in the study. Preprints that were not published were categorized as “unpublished preprints.” Preprints that were subsequently published exist in 2 versions (in a peer-reviewed journal and on the original preprint server), which were analyzed separately and referred to as “peer-reviewed preprint” and “original preprint,” respectively. Time to publish was the time interval between the date on which a preprint was first posted and the date on which it was first available as a peer-reviewed article. Impact was quantified by Altmetric Attention Score and citation count for all available manuscripts on August 6, 2021. Preprints were analyzed by publication status, publication rate, preprint server, and time to publication. Of the 275 preprints included in the CDC COVID-19 Science Update during the study period, most came from three servers: medRxiv (n=201, 73.1%), bioRxiv (n=41, 14.9%), and SSRN (n=25, 9.1%), with 8 (2.9%) coming from other sources. Additionally, 152 (55.3%) were eventually published. The median time to publish was 2.3 (IQR 1.4-3.7). When preprints posted in the last 2.3 months were excluded (to account for the time to publish), the publication rate was 67.8%. Moreover, 76 journals published at least one preprint from the CDC COVID-19 Science Update, and 18 journals published at least three. The median Altmetric Attention Score for unpublished preprints (n=123, 44.7%) was 146 (IQR 22-552) with a median citation count of 2 (IQR 0-8); for original preprints (n=152, 55.2%), these values were 212 (IQR 22-1164) and 14 (IQR 2-40), respectively; for peer-review preprints, these values were 265 (IQR 29-1896) and 19 (IQR 3-101), respectively. Prior studies of COVID-19 preprints found publication rates between 5.4% and 21.1%. Preprints included in the CDC COVID-19 Science Update were published at a higher rate than overall COVID-19 preprints, and those that were ultimately published were published within months and received higher attention scores than unpublished preprints. These findings indicate that the Science Update process for selecting preprints had a high fidelity in terms of their likelihood to be published and their impact. The incorporation of high-quality preprints into the CDC COVID-19 Science Update improves this activity’s capacity to inform meaningful public health decision-making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum Simulation of Molecular Electronic States with a Transcorrelated Hamiltonian: Higher Accuracy with Fewer Qubits

Simulation of electronic structure is one of the most promising applications on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era devices. However, NISQ devices suffer from a number of challenges like limited qubit connectivity, short coherence times, and sizable gate error rates. Thus, desired quantum algorithms should require shallow circuit depths and low qubit counts to take advantage of these devices. Here, we attempt to reduce quantum resource requirements for molecular simulations on a quantum computer while maintaining the desired accuracy with the help of classical quantum chemical theories of canonical transformation and explicit correlation. In this work, compact ab initio Hamiltonians are generated classically, in the second quantized form, through an approximate similarity transformation of the Hamiltonian with (a) an explicitly correlated two-body unitary operator with generalized pair excitations that remove the Coulombic electron–electron singularities from the Hamiltonian and (b) a unitary one-body operator to efficiently capture the orbital relaxation effects required for accurate description of the excited states. The resulting transcorrelated Hamiltonians are able to describe both the ground and the excited states of molecular systems in a balanced manner. Using the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) method based on the unitary coupled cluster with singles and doubles (UCCSD) ansatz and only a minimal basis set (ANO-RCC-MB), we demonstrate that the transcorrelated Hamiltonians can produce ground state energies comparable to the reference CCSD energies with the much larger cc-pVTZ basis set. This leads to a reduction in the number of required CNOT gates by more than 3 orders of magnitude for the chemical species studied in this work. Furthermore, using the quantum equation of motion (qEOM) formalism in conjunction with the transcorrelated Hamiltonian, we are able to reduce the deviations in the excitation energies from the reference EOM-CCSD/cc-pVTZ values by an order of magnitude. In conclusion, the transcorrelated Hamiltonians developed here are Hermitian and contain only one- and two-body interaction terms and thus can be easily combined with any quantum algorithm for accurate electronic structure simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Swift and extensive Omicron outbreak in China after sudden exit from ‘zero-COVID’ policy

In late 2022, China transitioned from a strict ‘zero-COVID’ policy to rapidly abandoning nearly all interventions and data reporting. This raised great concern about the presumably-rapid but unreported spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in a very large population of very low pre-existing immunity. By modeling a combination of case count and survey data, we show that Omicron spread extremely rapidly, at a rate of 0.42/day (95% credibility interval: [0.35, 0.51]/day), translating to an epidemic doubling time of 1.6 days ([1.6, 2.0] days) after the full exit from zero-COVID on Dec. 7, 2022. Consequently, we estimate that the vast majority of the population (97% [95%, 99%], sensitivity analysis lower limit of 90%) was infected during December, with the nation-wide epidemic peaking on Dec. 23. Overall, our results highlight the extremely high transmissibility of the variant and the importance of proper design of intervention exit strategies to avoid large infection waves.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Shot-noise-induced lower temperature limit of the nonneutral plasma parallel temperature diagnostic

Abstract We develop a new algorithm to estimate the temperature of a nonneutral plasma in a Penning-Malmberg trap. The algorithm analyzes data obtained by slowly lowering a voltage that confines one end of the plasma and collecting escaping charges, and is a maximum likelihood estimator based on a physically-motivated model of the escape protocol presented in (Beck in Measurement of the magnetic and temperature dependence of the electron-electron anisotropic temperature relaxation rate. PhD thesis, 1990). Significantly, our algorithm may be used on single-count data, allowing for improved fits with low numbers of escaping electrons. This is important for low-temperature plasmas such as those used in antihydrogen trapping. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation of our algorithm, and assess its robustness to intrinsic shot noise and external noise. The assumptions in this paper allow for a lower bound for measurable plasma temperatures of approximately $3\,\mathrm{K}$ 3 K for plasmas of length $1\,\mathrm{cm}$ 1 cm , with approximately 100 particle counts needed for an accuracy of $\pm 10 \%$ ± 10 % .

Zhong, Adrianne (ORCID:0000000162618736)↗

Xanthophyll-cycle based model of the rapid photoprotection of Nannochloropsis in response to regular and irregular light/dark sequences

We explore the photoprotection dynamics of Nannochloropsis oceanica using time-correlated single photon counting under regular and irregular actinic light sequences. The varying light sequences mimic natural conditions, allowing us to probe the real-time response of non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) pathways. Durations of fluctuating light exposure during a fixed total experimental time and prior light exposure of the algae are both found to have a profound effect on NPQ. These observations are rationalized with a quantitative model based on the xanthophyll cycle and the protonation of LHCX1. The model is able to accurately describe the dynamics of non-photochemical quenching across a variety of light sequences. The combined model and observations suggest that the accumulation of a quenching complex, likely zeaxanthin bound to a protonated LHCX1, is responsible for the gradual rise in NPQ. Additionally, the model makes specific predictions for the light sequence dependence of xanthophyll concentrations that are in reasonable agreement with independent chromatography measurements taken during a specific light/dark sequence.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗