Results for “Capability Maturity Model” — Page 15

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Hail Storm Risk Assessment Using Space-Borne Remote Sensing Observations and Reanalyses

Much of the world is impacted by severe thunderstorms, but whether they become disasters depends upon resilience--our capacity to prepare, mitigate, respond, and recover. Hail is the costliest severe weather hazard for the insurance industry, generating ~70% of severe convective storm losses due to damage to assets such as homes, businesses, agriculture, and infrastructure. Most insurance companies do not reserve enough capital to cover catastrophes, so they acquire reinsurance. The reinsurance industry uses catastrophe models (CatModels) to statistically estimate risk to an insurer’s portfolio. Hail CatModels are developed with climatologies that define hailstorm frequency and severity. Hail-prone areas can be defined using hail reports from trained spotters, the media, and the general public. Extremely severe hail (2+ inch diameter) occurs nearly every day across the world. Weather radars can detect hail because hailstones strongly reflect microwave signals that they emit. However, hail climatologies are difficult to derive because hail covers small areas and there are neither hail reporting mechanisms (e.g. website or mobile app) nor radar networks in most places outside the US and Europe. This lack of ground truth on severe hail puts society and economies at risk. Hail is generated within storms by strong updrafts. These updrafts exhibit unique signatures in NASA and other agency satellite observations, offering new opportunities for hailstorm analysis. Geostationary (GEO) visible and infrared imagery has been collected for ~15-25 years across the world (region dependent) and methods have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to detect hailstorm updrafts using GEO imagery. Climatological GEO updraft data has been used by Willis Towers Watson (WTW), a leader in catastrophe risk assessment for the insurance industry, and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology to develop CatModels over Europe and Australia. Hail can also be inferred with passive microwave imagery collected by low-Earth-orbiting sensors such as the GPM GMI, TRMM TMI, AMSR-E, AMSR-2, SSM/I, and SSMIS over the last 20+ years using methods developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Hailstorms generate enhanced lightning flash rates that can be tracked using new GOES-R series GEO Lightning Mapping (GLM) imagery. Atmospheric reanalyses can be used to define favorable hailstorm environments for combination with the satellite-based storm detections. This presentation will describe a framework for developing continental to global hail climatologies and CatModels based on NASA satellite data and capabilities. This is a collaboration between LaRC and MSFC, WTW, and partners in Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa. This project seeks to mitigate hail disasters by aiding development of new satellite-based severe storm nowcasting tools by regional partners and developing climatologies to improve societal understanding of hail frequency. GEOO visible and infrared metrics of storm intensity, environmental conditions based on reanalyses, spotter hail reports and radar MESH observations are intercompared to quantify the detectability of hailstorms, and our ability to discriminate hailstorms from other severe storms. We are also maturing methods using land surface imaging satellite data (e.g. MODIS, Landsat, Sentinel 1 and 2) to identify hail damage to agriculture. Work with WTW will improve socioeconomic resilience through development of new CatModels. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina feature some of the most intense thunderstorms on Earth. South America and South Africa are developing insurance markets of interest to WTW clients, and is similar to other regions routinely impacted by hail that do not have comprehensive hail reporting or radars to assess hailstorm frequency. Project datasets will be made available via online GIS-enabled tools developed at the LaRC Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) which will visualize data and provide it in multiple formats for use in a wide range of open source and commercial tools.

Kristopher Michael Bedka↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent Developments of Thermal Protection Materials to Enable Lower Cost Space Missions

Introduction: Starting with the Commercial Crew Program, a new paradigm has emerged at NASA. Rather than designing rockets and spacecrafts for every mission optimized to achieve science, NASA has begun to use a service-based model and utilizing public-private partnership in developing the vehicles that can bring broader benefits as well as lower the cost for NASA missions. Commercial companies own and operate those vehicles. This allows NASA to not design missions from the bottom up, and has cost, risk, and schedule savings implications. On the other side, the constraints require meeting the requirements in terms of mass, volume, power, etc. By leveraging NASA developed technologies, commercial companies can quickly demonstrate the commercial mission concept, and, through technology transfer, adopt needed technology to address supply chain problems. A downside is that the technology has to be sufficiently mature to be transferred by NASA, which means that it requires significant investment, expertise, and time to develop. Space entities are focused on rapid development with an emphasis on manufacturing and integration innovation with reduced cost and schedule and quick entrance into the market. Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) are mission critical, but their development takes years, and involve access to arc jets or unique test facilities. Therefore, their development is both risky and investment heavy. NASA ARC developed several new TPS materials over the last decade (C-PICA, HEEET, 3MDCP, 3DMAT, ADEPT woven TPS) and brought them to high TPS maturity, making them enablers for commercials space missions from LEO, Lunar Sample Return, Mars, and Venus missions. LEO missions are relevant to future Mars missions due to the comparable entry conditions. External Partners' Missions: C-PICA is a recent improvement on NASA’s heritage PICA lightweight TPS ablator. C-PICA is now considered an enabling technology for New Frontiers and other NASA missions. C-PICA was infused into several missions from external partners. Varda Space Industries’ Winnebago-1 spacecraft successfully returned to Earth from LEO on Feb. 21st, 2024, using a C-PICA heatshield. Inversion Space’s Ray vehicle will test both ARC’s C-PICA and SIRCA TPS materials on a LEO return mission later in 2024. The Kentucky Re-Entry Probe Experiment (KREPE) is another example of a low-cost flight experiment to demonstrate the use of small entry capsules to gather data with three instrumented Kentucky Re-entry and Universal Payload System (KRUPS) capsules. NASA Arc provided C-PICA and Soft-PICA for two of the next KRUPS capsules scheduled to re-enter Earth from the ISS later in 2024. Finally, Rocket Lab’s low-cost mission to Venus, scheduled to launch in December 2024, will search for habitable conditions in Venus’ cloud layer, making use of NASA ARC provided HEEET insulation layer heat shield, and SIRCA backshell TPS materials. Future NASA Missions: NASA’s ability to help commercial missions can lead to future low-cost missions for several reasons: Competition encourages lower cost; technology maturation is now done at an integrated system level; and a common design architecture between commercial and scientific applications requires no specialized engineering design. From an engineering perspective, both of these commercial LEO capsules aforementioned are capable of a Mars entry; the commercial payload mut be replaced with as science payload. Finally, several NASA mission concepts, that could be candidates for future SIMPLEx program calls, such as VATMOS-SR and Nephele, both proposing to target the Venusian atmosphere, would make use of the HEEET insulation layer TPS for part of their heat shield.

TPS materials↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent Developments of Thermal Protection Materials to Enable Lower Cost Space Missions

Introduction: Starting with the Commercial Crew Program, a new paradigm has emerged at NASA. Rather than designing rockets and spacecrafts for every mission optimized to achieve science, NASA has begun to use a service-based model and utilizing public-private partnership in developing the vehicles that can bring broader benefits as well as lower the cost for NASA missions. Commercial companies own and operate those vehicles. This allows NASA to not design missions from the bottom up, and has cost, risk, and schedule savings implications. On the other side, the constraints require meeting the requirements in terms of mass, volume, power, etc. By leveraging NASA developed technologies, commercial companies can quickly demonstrate the commercial mission concept, and, through technology transfer, adopt needed technology to address supply chain problems. A downside is that the technology has to be sufficiently mature to be transferred by NASA, which means that it requires significant investment, expertise, and time to develop. Space entities are focused on rapid development with an emphasis on manufacturing and integration innovation with reduced cost and schedule and quick entrance into the market. Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) are mission critical, but their development takes years, and involve access to arc jets or unique test facilities. Therefore, their development is both risky and investment heavy. NASA ARC developed several new TPS materials over the last decade (C-PICA, HEEET, 3MDCP, 3DMAT, ADEPT woven TPS) and brought them to high TPS maturity, making them enablers for commercials space missions from LEO, Lunar Sample Return, Mars, and Venus missions. LEO missions are relevant to future Mars missions due to the comparable entry conditions. External Partners' Missions: C-PICA is a recent improvement on NASA’s heritage PICA lightweight TPS ablator. C-PICA is now considered an enabling technology for New Frontiers and other NASA missions. C-PICA was infused into several missions from external partners. Varda Space Industries’ Winnebago-1 spacecraft successfully returned to Earth from LEO on Feb. 21st, 2024, using a C-PICA heatshield. Inversion Space’s Ray vehicle will test both ARC’s C-PICA and SIRCA TPS materials on a LEO return mission later in 2024. The Kentucky Re-Entry Probe Experiment (KREPE) is another example of a low-cost flight experiment to demonstrate the use of small entry capsules to gather data with three instrumented Kentucky Re-entry and Universal Payload System (KRUPS) capsules. NASA Arc provided C-PICA and Soft-PICA for two of the next KRUPS capsules scheduled to re-enter Earth from the ISS later in 2024. Finally, Rocket Lab’s low-cost mission to Venus, scheduled to launch in December 2024, will search for habitable conditions in Venus’ cloud layer, making use of NASA ARC provided HEEET insulation layer heat shield, and SIRCA backshell TPS materials. Future NASA Missions: NASA’s ability to help commercial missions can lead to future low-cost missions for several reasons: Competition encourages lower cost; technology maturation is now done at an integrated system level; and a common design architecture between commercial and scientific applications requires no specialized engineering design. From an engineering perspective, both of these commercial LEO capsules aforementioned are capable of a Mars entry; the commercial payload mut be replaced with as science payload. Finally, several NASA mission concepts, that could be candidates for future SIMPLEx program calls, such as VATMOS-SR and Nephele, both proposing to target the Venusian atmosphere, would make use of the HEEET insulation layer TPS for part of their heat shield.

TPS materials↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) Aerocapture System for Enabling Faster-Larger Planetary Science & Human Exploration Missions

Since our completing the NIAC Phase I NIAC on this Advanced Aerocapture System, NASA Langley Research Center has funded or supported a number of studies and code enhancements through its Center Innovation Fund (CIF) and NASA’s NSTGRO and Internship Programs to mature the analysis capabilities and quantify the merits of the MHD Aerocapture System technology. These efforts have resulted in a plug and play analysis capability for assessing MHD aerocapture system performance for arrival at many planetary bodies of interest. Our efforts have especially focused on the potential mass savings for improving the capacity for science observations at Neptune and Triton. A re-cent Forbes article published “‘Orbital mechanics is probably going to decide for us whether we go to Uranus or Neptune because we need to flyby Jupiter,’ said Kunio Sayanagi at Hampton University, Virginia, who also worked on the Neptune Odyssey proposal…. Exactly when a mission can be sent to Uranus, or Neptune, depends on the relative position of Jupiter, which can help give a spacecraft a gravitational slingshot. That drastically shortens the cruise phase.” [1] Since shortening the cruise phase is important for these science missions, any mass savings enabled by the MHD Aerocapture System could be reallocated to increasing Thermal Protection System mass to allow faster arrival speeds and/or for onboarding additional payloads such as science instruments, batteries, or propellant for conducting more science for longer durations in the desired orbits. The analysis steps and codes for conducting trades and sizing vehicles for aerocapture are as follows: Step 1 is to conduct aeroheating analysis using LAURA of the selected entry vehicle shape to identify locations on the forebody where ionization and flow velocity are sufficient for producing Lo-rentz forces. LAURA is a multiblock structured grid finite-volume CFD solver developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. [2] LAURA has been used for aerothermal analysis support of the entry, de-scent and landing (EDL) phase of interplanetary missions over the last three decades [3-7]. Step 2 is to port the LAURA results into CFDWARP to calcu-late electrical and thermal conductivities of ionized flow for sizing MHD patch system and calculating Lorentz forces needed for controls analysis. CFDWARP is a CFD code that uses advanced nu-merical methods that enable the simulation of the full coupling between the aerodynamics, the magne-tohydrodynamics, and the non-neutral plasma sheaths. CFDWARP has the unique capability to simulate efficiently the non-neutral sheaths (near the electrodes) in coupled form with the quasi-neutral bulk MHD flow [8-11]. Step 3 is to link re-sults from LAURA and CFDWARP into POST2 for calculating entry trajectories and comparing MHD control results with other aerodynamic control strategies. The Program to Optimize Simulated Tra-jectories II (POST2) is a generalized point mass, discrete parameter targeting and optimization pro-gram. POST2 provides the capability to target and optimize point mass trajectories for multiple pow-ered or un-powered vehicles near an arbitrary rotat-ing, oblate planet [12]. Step 4: TPS sizing was per-formed using the Fully Implicit Ablation and Ther-mal-response code (FIAT) tool which computes the transient one-dimensional thermal response and surface thermochemistry of a multilayer stackup of thermal protection, bonding, and structural materi-als subject to aeroheating on one surface [13]. The sizing and margining methodology used was based on the approach documented by Mahzari and Milos [14] for the dual-layered heatshield for extreme entry environment technology (DL-HEEET) TPS concept. TPS analysis utilizes trajectory information from POST2. Using this step-wise plug and play MHD Aerocapture performance assessment process, our analysis targets a Neptune aerocapture trajectory that will place the spacecraft in an observation orbit for Triton. [15]. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) control of a 4.5-meter diameter MSL-style capsule resulted in TPS mass savings of nearly 2000 kg when using an MHD system mass of under 200 kg. The flight path for a vehicle using the MHD control strategy has a much lower heat rate and heat load compared to the conventional aerodynamic aerocapture strategies known as bank angle con-trolled (BAC) and direct force controlled (DFC). Both BAC and DFC have heat rates significantly greater than 1500 W/cm2 typically used as an upper limit for PICA. Thus, DL-HEEET TPS concept was required for the BAC and DFC control strategies. However, considering the more benign environ-ments for the MHD case, additional TPS concepts with improved mass efficiency were also assessed. PICA was considered for the MHD controlled strat-egy since the maximum heat rate was well within the limits (<1500 W/cm2) of PICA. TPS sizing re-sulted in a significant mass reduction. The PICA layer for this sizing case was about 7.8 cm. As a point of reference, the Mars 2020 mission, which used this same PICA concept, had a PICA thickness of 3.18 cm [16]. The trajectories used for the TPS sizing originat-ed from the POST2 simulations. The current, I, to an electromagnet configuration can be manipulated to allow for active control of the vehicle. Manipula-tion of the current, I, changes the magnetic field, B, which affects the Lorentz force and therefore the MHD drag force on the vehicle. Our analysis in-cluded both open-loop and close-loop control. Closed-loop control will enable improved overall performance when taking into account mission level uncertainties, such as interplanetary delivery errors and atmospheric modeling uncertainties. The open-loop and closed-loop MHD control cases do not dip as deep into the atmosphere as the aerodynamic cases. Three types of aerodynamic-only approach-es are investigated: bank angle modulation (BAM), director force control (DFC), and Drag Modulated. BAM and DFC make use of vehicle aerodynamic angles to steer the vehicle. Thus, changing the aer-odynamic forces acting on the vehicle for control, aerodynamic drag modulated case requires a vary-ing drag area to modulate the drag force. The MHD drag modulated case modulates MHD generated drag force that adds to the aerodynamic drag. This higher atmospheric activation of drag forces by the MHD patch results in significantly less heat flux on the vehicle. The MHD technology will enable shorter cruise times and deceleration of larger payloads for increasing the capacity for science at the Ice Giants or for returning astronauts to Earth from cislunar space or from Mars. The purpose of this presentation is to provide more details about this work and to highlight plans for further research and development including a flight demonstration.

R. W. Moses↗