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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Mineralogical Indicators for Climate Change on Mars: Evidence from Landed Missions

Mineralogical and geochemical data returned by a flotilla of Mars orbiters and landers over the past 10 years has substantially enhanced our understanding on the evolution of the atmosphere and climate. Instruments onboard Mars Express and MRO discovered widespread deposits of phyllosilicates that formed during the Noachian followed by formation of sulfates into the Hesperian. The formation of extensive valley networks along with these layered deposits of phyllosilicates and sulfates during the late Noachian/ early Hesperian indicate a past martian climate that was capable of maintaining liquid water at the surface. The planet's climate changed substantially after these early 'episodes' of water and very little aqueous alteration has occurred over the past 3.5 Gyrs . A key to understanding Mars past climate is to identify, characterize, and age date secondary minerals that have formed by reaction with volatile compounds, e.g., H2O, CO2, SO2. Here, we summarize the detection of secondary minerals at the four landing sites visited over the past 10 years. We also provide potential pathways for their formation and implications for past climate change on Mars.

Ming, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Nature of Quaternary Climate Change

Dynamic interactions between atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere, driven by solar energy and modulated by atmospheric greenhouse gasses, volcanism, and plate tectonics produce substantial variations in Earth's climate over geologic time. Major Quaternary drivers of climate change include variations in Earth's orbital cycles, global temperature, natural atmospheric greenhouse gasses, and continental ice mass. Multiple abrupt climate perturbations with onsets of a century to decades have also occurred. Since the 1970s, geologically unprecedented rising levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gasses from fossil fuel combustion, industry, and agriculture have become the dominant contributors to rising global temperature, glacier and ice sheet losses, and sea level rise.

Solar variability↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-scale impacts of climate change on hydropower for long-term water-energy planning in the contiguous United States

Climate change impacts on watersheds can potentially exacerbate water scarcity issues where water serves multiple purposes including hydropower. The long-term management of water and energy resources is still mostly approached in a siloed manner at different basins or watersheds, failing to consider the potential impacts that may concurrently affect many regions at once. There is a need for a large-scale hydropower modeling framework that can examine climate impacts across adjoining river basins and balancing authorities (BAs) and provide a periodic assessment at regional to national scales. Expanding from our prior assessment only for the United States (US) federal hydropower plants, we enhance and extend two regional hydropower models to cover over 85% of the total hydropower nameplate capacity and present the first contiguous US-wide assessment of future hydropower production under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6’s high-end Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 emission scenario using an uncertainty-aware multi-model ensemble approach. We present regional hydropower projections, using both BA regions and US Hydrologic Subregions (HUC4s), to consistently inform the energy and water communities for two future periods—the near-term (2020–2039) and the mid-term (2040–2059) relative to a historical baseline period (1980–2019). We find that the median projected changes in annual hydropower generation are typically positive—approximately 5% in the near-term, and 10% in the mid-term. However, since the risk of regional droughts is also projected to increase, future planning cannot overly rely on the ensemble median, as the potential of severe hydropower reductions could be overlooked. The assessment offers an ensemble of future hydropower generation projections, providing regional utilities and power system operators with consistent data to develop drought scenarios, design long duration storage and evaluate energy infrastructure reliability under intensified inter-annual and seasonal variability.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

Communicating the Needs of Climate Change Policy Makers to Scientists

This chapter will describe the challenges that earth scientists face in developing science data products relevant to decision maker and policy needs, and will describe strategies that can improve the two-way communication between the scientist and the policy maker. Climate change policy and decision making happens at a variety of scales - from local government implementing solar homes policies to international negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Scientists can work to provide data at these different scales, but if they are not aware of the needs of decision makers or understand what challenges the policy maker is facing, they are likely to be less successful in influencing policy makers as they wished. This is because the science questions they are addressing may be compelling, but not relevant to the challenges that are at the forefront of policy concerns. In this chapter we examine case studies of science-policy partnerships, and the strategies each partnership uses to engage the scientist at a variety of scales. We examine three case studies: the global Carbon Monitoring System pilot project developed by NASA, a forest biomass mapping effort for Silvacarbon project, and a forest canopy cover project being conducted for forest management in Maryland. In each of these case studies, relationships between scientists and policy makers were critical for ensuring the focus of the science as well as the success of the decision-making.

Brown, Molly E.↗
NASA NTRS2026

Hematite Is a Mineralogical Marker of Ancient Climate Change on Mars

The ancient climate of Mars changed from warm to cold surface conditions. This climate transition is demonstrated by geomorphological evidence, but lacks suitable mineralogical indicators. We investigate the crystallographic properties of hematite (iron oxide) in Gale crater, measured by the Curiosity rover, and compare them to laboratory experiments. Hematite crystallite sizes are ~5 to ~65 nm in the oldest sedimentary rocks investigated by the rover (the Murray formation) and <10 nm in the younger overlying strata (Mirador and Carolyn Shoemaker formations). We attribute the larger crystallites in the Murray formation to post-depositional coarsening by groundwater in warm and wet conditions, which persisted for several million years. Hematite with small crystallites co-occurs with goethite (iron oxyhydroxide) in the overlying layers, consistent with colder and water- limited conditions.

Marek Szczerba↗
NASA NTRS1985

Late-Quaternary climatic change on the American North Pacific Coast

The late Quaternary climate of the North Pacific, where according to modelling the solar radiation in the early Holocene at the time of the summer solstice is high and in the late Holocene is relatively low, is investigated. Quantitative temperature and precipitation estimates from southern Alaska are compared with estimates from western Washington and British Columbia. Data extending over more than 10,000 years show a broadly consistent pattern of climatic change in general agreement with predicted variations in solar radiation and their effect on atmospheric circulation and seasonal duration of pressure systems over the North Pacific Ocean. In the early Holocene, the subtropical North Pacific anticyclone annually regulated climate for a longer period at higher latitudes than at present, so that warmth and dryness increased in southern Alaska. The Aleutian low-pressure center intensified during the late Holocene, resulting in colder and more humid coastal climate and increased frequency of glacier growth in the cordillera.

Heusser, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The detection of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect

The greenhouse effect is accepted as an undisputed fact from both theoretical and observational considerations. In Earth's atmosphere, the primary greenhouse gas is water vapor. The specific concern today is that increasing concentrations of anthropogenically introduced greenhouse gases will, sooner or later, irreversibly alter the climate of Earth. Detecting climate change has been complicated by uncertainties in historical observations and measurements. Thus, the primary concern for the GEDEX project is how can climate change and enhanced greenhouse effects be unambiguously detected and quantified. Specifically examined are the areas of: Earth surface temperature; the free atmosphere (850 millibars and above); space-based measurements; measurement uncertainties; and modeling the observed temperature record.

Schiffer, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Climate Change and the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

Using GCM (General Circulation Model) simulations of the troposphere-stratosphere circulation in different climate regimes, the sensitivity of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation to climate change will be discussed. Included will be simulations of the stratosphere with increasing/doubled CO2 as done with different versions of the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model, with and without ozone response. To put the results in a broader perspective, stratospheric circulation changes from several paleoclimate simulations will also be presented, including the Last Glacial Maximum and the Paleocene, each with several different (plausible) latitudinal sea surface temperature gradients. Hence the climate changes investigated will include strong variations in baroclinic and topographic tropospheric planetary wave and gravity wave forcing, as well as global mean temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels. Results will be analyzed in terms of wave driving via E-P flux convergences and gravity wave effects, and will be shown to be strongly dependent on wave propagation characteristics.

Rind, David↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2022

Compound Effects of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Issues in the Middle East

The Middle East is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to climate change, which has exacerbated environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region. Here we analyze the latest climate model projections of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5,to detect potential future changes in this region. A baseline period (1981-2010) is compared with the middle(2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21stcentury. The results, representing the worst-case scenario, identify the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters as the hotspot of future compounding effects of climate change in the Middle East. Those effects result from the coincidence of elevated temperature, reduced precipitation, and enhanced interannual variability of precipitation. The hotspot overlays the location of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) irrigation initiative. In this climate context, risks to GAP viability and downstream water security, and associated potential for water-related conflicts and migration are considerable and demand a reconsideration of the risk-benefit assessment of GAP. This need has become more urgent after the recent widespread and deadly climate-related conflicts and wildfires in summer 2021 across the Middle East that further underlined vulnerability of the region to climate extremes.

Tigris-Euphrates headwater↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Conundrum of Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization and the Urban Heat Island Effect

The twenty-first century is the first urban century according to the United Nations Development Program. The focus on cities reflects awareness of the growing percentage of the world's population that lives in urban areas. In 2000, approximately 3 billion people representing about 40% of the global population resided in urban areas. The United Nations estimates that by 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in urban areas. As a consequence, the number of megacities (those cities with populations of 10 million inhabitants or more) will increase by 100 by 2025. Thus, there is a critical need to understand the spatial growth of urban areas and what the impacts are on the environment. Moreover, there is a critical need to assess how under global climate change, cities will affect the local, regional, and even global climate. As urban areas increase in size, it is anticipated there will be a concomitant growth of the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI), and the attributes that are related to its spatial and temporal dynamics. Therefore, how climate change, including the dynamics of the UHI, will affect the urban environment, must be explored to help mitigate potential impacts on the environment (e.g., air quality, heat stress, vectorborne disease) and on human health and well being, to develop adaptation schemes to cope with these impacts.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

GCM simulations of volcanic aerosol forcing. I - Climate changes induced by steady-state perturbations

The response of the climate system to a temporally and spatially constant amount of volcanic particles is simulated using a general circulation model (GCM). The optical depth of the aerosols is chosen so as to produce approximately the same amount of forcing as results from doubling the present CO2 content of the atmosphere and from the boundary conditions associated with the peak of the last ice age. The climate changes produced by long-term volcanic aerosol forcing are obtained by differencing this simulation and one made for the present climate with no volcanic aerosol forcing. The simulations indicate that a significant cooling of the troposphere and surface can occur at times of closely spaced multiple sulfur-rich volcanic explosions that span time scales of decades to centuries. The steady-state climate response to volcanic forcing includes a large expansion of sea ice, especially in the Southern Hemisphere; a resultant large increase in surface and planetary albedo at high latitudes; and sizable changes in the annually and zonally averaged air temperature.

Pollack, James B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reassessing the Climate Change Narrative

Abstract We note that the atmosphere has distinct tropical and extratropical regimes. The tropical regime is significantly dependent on the greenhouse effect and is characterized by temperatures that are largely horizontally homogenized. The extratropical regime is dominated by large scale unstable convective eddies that transport heat between the tropics and the poles (leaving the poles warmer than they otherwise would be) and serve to determine the temperature difference between the tropics and the poles. Changes in tropical temperature and in the tropics-to-pole temperature difference both contribute to changes in global mean temperature. It turns out that changes in global mean temperature associated with major climate change (i.e., the last glacial maximum and the warm period of the Eocene about 50 million years ago) were associated primarily with changes in the tropics-to-pole temperature differences. By contrast, changes in global mean temperature over the past 150 years or so are almost entirely associated with changes in tropical temperature. Thus, there is no intrinsic amplification associated with a change in the tropics-to-pole temperature difference. However, model simulations of climate behave differently from both observations and from each other. In particular, they all show more significant contributions for the tropics-to-pole temperature difference – sometimes much more significant. They also show excessive tropical warming.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative: I. A Methodology for Assessing Atmospheric Correction Processors Based on In-Situ Measurements

The Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative intends to provide a long-term time series of ocean colour data and investigate the detectable climate impact. A reliable and stable atmospheric correction procedure is the basis for ocean colour products of the necessary high quality. In order to guarantee an objective selection from a set of four atmospheric correction processors, the common validation strategy of comparisons between in-situ and satellite derived water leaving reflectance spectra, is extended by a ranking system. In principle, the statistical parameters such as root mean square error, bias, etc. and measures of goodness of fit, are transformed into relative scores, which evaluate the relationship of quality dependent on the algorithms under study. The sensitivity of these scores to the selected database has been assessed by a bootstrapping exercise, which allows identification of the uncertainty in the scoring results. Although the presented methodology is intended to be used in an algorithm selection process, this paper focusses on the scope of the methodology rather than the properties of the individual processors.

Climate Change↗
NASA NTRS1992

Chapman Conference on the Hydrologic Aspects of Global Climate Change, Lake Chelan, WA, June 12-14, 1990, Selected Papers

The present conference on the hydrological aspects of global climate change discusses land-surface schemes for future climate models, modeling of the land-surface boundary in climate models as a composite of independent vegetation, a land-surface hydrology parameterizaton with subgrid variability for general circulation models, and conceptual aspects of a statistical-dynamical approach to represent landscape subgrid-scale heterogeneities in atmospheric models. Attention is given to the impact of global warming on river runoff, the influence of atmospheric moisture transport on the fresh water balance of the Atlantic drainage basin, a comparison of observations and model simulations of tropospheric water vapor, and the use of weather types to disaggregate the prediction of general circulation models. Topics addressed include the potential response of an Arctic watershed during a period of global warming and the sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates to climate variability and change.

Lettenmaier, Dennis P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The challenge of identifying greenhouse gas-induced climatic change

Meeting the challenge of identifying greenhouse gas-induced climatic change involves three steps. First, observations of critical variables must be assembled, evaluated, and analyzed to determine that there has been a statistically significant change. Second, reliable theoretical (model) calculations must be conducted to provide a definitive set of changes for which to search. Third, a quantitative and statistically significant association must be made between the projected and observed changes to exclude the possibility that the changes are due to natural variability or other factors. This paper provides a qualitative overview of scientific progress in successfully fulfilling these three steps.

Maccracken, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Importance of Understanding the Last Glacial Maximum for Climate Change

The last glacial maximum (LGM) at approximately 23–18k (k—thousand calendar years) provides an important contrast to our present and pre-industrial climate in a warming world. Global observational datasets of LGM land and sea surface conditions have been synthesized and present some interesting challenges both for providing another scenario for understanding climate change and for climate sensitivity. These challenges are ongoing, as data increase and modeling improves. By definition, the LGM is defined as the time during the last glacial interval in which maximum ice was sequestered in ice sheets as visible in the marine isotopic records. Maximum cooling is visible from pollen and macrofossil records 14C dated to this interval, and ice sheets and alpine glaciers are roughly at their maximum extent throughout the globe. The ice cores extracted from Greenland and Antarctica have given us high-resolution records of greenhouse gases, dust, and isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen which reveal the progression out of the LGM at 18k as climate warmed.

Peteet, Dorothy↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative: III. A Round-Robin Comparison on In-Water Bio-Optical Algorithms

Satellite-derived remote-sensing reflectance (Rrs) can be used for mapping biogeochemically relevant variables, such as the chlorophyll concentration and the Inherent Optical Properties (IOPs) of the water, at global scale for use in climate-change studies. Prior to generating such products, suitable algorithms have to be selected that are appropriate for the purpose. Algorithm selection needs to account for both qualitative and quantitative requirements. In this paper we develop an objective methodology designed to rank the quantitative performance of a suite of bio-optical models. The objective classification is applied using the NASA bio-Optical Marine Algorithm Dataset (NOMAD). Using in situ Rrs as input to the models, the performance of eleven semianalytical models, as well as five empirical chlorophyll algorithms and an empirical diffuse attenuation coefficient algorithm, is ranked for spectrally-resolved IOPs, chlorophyll concentration and the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 489 nm. The sensitivity of the objective classification and the uncertainty in the ranking are tested using a Monte-Carlo approach (bootstrapping). Results indicate that the performance of the semi-analytical models varies depending on the product and wavelength of interest. For chlorophyll retrieval, empirical algorithms perform better than semi-analytical models, in general. The performance of these empirical models reflects either their immunity to scale errors or instrument noise in Rrs data, or simply that the data used for model parameterisation were not independent of NOMAD. Nonetheless, uncertainty in the classification suggests that the performance of some semi-analytical algorithms at retrieving chlorophyll is comparable with the empirical algorithms. For phytoplankton absorption at 443 nm, some semi-analytical models also perform with similar accuracy to an empirical model. We discuss the potential biases, limitations and uncertainty in the approach, as well as additional qualitative considerations for algorithm selection for climate-change studies. Our classification has the potential to be routinely implemented, such that the performance of emerging algorithms can be compared with existing algorithms as they become available. In the long-term, such an approach will further aid algorithm development for ocean-colour studies.

Phytoplankton↗