SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Climate extreme change”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part I: Observations and Meteorological Drivers

Abstract Between 15 and 19 March 2022, East Antarctica experienced an exceptional heat wave with widespread 30°–40°C temperature anomalies across the ice sheet. This record-shattering event saw numerous monthly temperature records being broken including a new all-time temperature record of −9.4°C on 18 March at Concordia Station despite March typically being a transition month to the Antarctic coreless winter. The driver for these temperature extremes was an intense atmospheric river advecting subtropical/midlatitude heat and moisture deep into the Antarctic interior. The scope of the temperature records spurred a large, diverse collaborative effort to study the heat wave’s meteorological drivers, impacts, and historical climate context. Here we focus on describing those temperature records along with the intricate meteorological drivers that led to the most intense atmospheric river observed over East Antarctica. These efforts describe the Rossby wave activity forced from intense tropical convection over the Indian Ocean. This led to an atmospheric river and warm conveyor belt intensification near the coastline, which reinforced atmospheric blocking deep into East Antarctica. The resulting moisture flux and upper-level warm-air advection eroded the typical surface temperature inversions over the ice sheet. At the peak of the heat wave, an area of 3.3 million km 2 in East Antarctica exceeded previous March monthly temperature records. Despite a temperature anomaly return time of about 100 years, a closer recurrence of such an event is possible under future climate projections. In Part II we describe the various impacts this extreme event had on the East Antarctic cryosphere. Significance Statement In March 2022, a heat wave and atmospheric river caused some of the highest temperature anomalies ever observed globally and captured the attention of the Antarctic science community. Using our diverse collective expertise, we explored the causes of the event and have placed it within a historical climate context. One key takeaway is that Antarctic climate extremes are highly sensitive to perturbations in the midlatitudes and subtropics. This heat wave redefined our expectations of the Antarctic climate. Despite the rare chance of occurrence based on past climate, a future temperature extreme event of similar magnitude is possible, especially given anthropogenic climate change.

Wille, Jonathan D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding spatial and temporal drivers of variation in tree hydraulic processes and their consequences for climate feedbacks (Final Technical Report)

This is the final technical report from the first phase of a project that changed institutions. The grant was titled “Understanding spatial and temporal drivers of variation in tree hydraulic processes and their consequences for climate feedbacks.” The overall objectives of this project were to (1) provide model‐compatible datasets of key plant hydraulic traits and status for model evaluation, parameterization and validation and (2) use these data to pinpoint ecosystem responses to a changing hydroclimate by addressing both long‐term climatic drying and episodic extreme droughts. We planned to address the objectives with three research activities to quantify plant responses to chronic water stress and episodic drought: (1) generate high frequency observations of soil and plant hydraulic data across different landscape positions at multiple sites, (2) quantify plant hydraulic trait plasticity in response to experimental soil moisture reduction in situ in two central hardwood forests, and (3) simulate the carbon consequences of incorporating plant hydrodynamics and plant acclimation to water stress in the DOE‐sponsored plant hydrodynamics model FATES‐HYDRO. As of the transfer of this project to another institution, we had made substantial progress on activities 1 and 2, and started activity 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

An ML-based terrestrial data fusion and augmentation framework to enable advanced understanding of the terrestrial carbon and water interactions

Soil moisture is essential to the terrestrial carbon and water cycles and land–atmosphere interactions. There are various types of soil moisture data, and each type has the distinct spatiotemporal strengths and limitations, depending on the diverse applications and retrieval methodologies of different data types (Li et al., in review; The PNNL-82151 FY23 Report). However, the limitations of different soil moisture data in terms of accuracy and spatiotemporal coverage hinder our ability to further understand the soil moisture dynamics across scales. To have a gap free soil moisture data product with a fine spatiotemporal coverage and vertical profiles, we train extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models by using (1) in-situ soil moisture measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN), (2) soil moisture from the ECMWF reanalysis (ERA) at the 9 km and sub-daily spatiotemporal resolution, (3) the Daymet meteorological fields, and (4) data products that characterize surface conditions, including soil texture, organic content, topography, vegetation type, and rooting depth. We use the trained XGBoost models that have consistent performance across seven soil layers, i.e., 0–5 cm, 5–10 cm, 10–20 cm, 20–40 cm, 40–60 cm, 60–100 cm, and 100–200 cm, and the gridded model predictors to generate a soil moisture data at the 1 km and daily spatiotemporal resolution for the Continental United States (CONUS) from 2001–2020. This dataset can be broadly used for Earth system model benchmark, monitoring extreme weathers, making informed decisions regarding agriculture, water resource management, climate change mitigation, and ecosystem preservation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wildfire and power grid nexus in a changing climate

Global wildfire events have had increasingly severe impacts in recent years, particularly in the western USA, driven by extreme fire-weather conditions, fuel accumulation and multiple ignition sources. Wildfires sparked by power lines tend to be larger and more destructive, as they often occur during high winds, which accelerate the spread of fires. Moreover, efforts to contain wildfires frequently result in power outages, causing considerable economic disruption. Here, in this Review, we examine wildfire risks related to power-line-induced ignitions, infrastructure damage, climate-induced environmental impacts, grid operational risks, real-time grid management risks, vegetation management risks, and financial and funding risks in the context of a changing climate and their interdependence with power grid infrastructures. We then explore the resilience of power grids under wildfire threats, looking at risk analysis, prediction and mitigation strategies. The Review also shares practical insights and experiences in the USA to inform researchers, policymakers and industry professionals.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

gcm_eval (Global Climate Model Evaluation) [SWR-24-37]

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex as our changing climate continues to affect the weather we experience which in turn drives changes in the ever increasing share of renewable energy generation and energy demand. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and often subjective process. There is no single perfect climate model or dataset for all applications. In this repository, we include software and the corresponding assessments of various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), evaluating their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparing of their future projections of climate change. We focus on variables that directly affect the energy system including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this repository is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and datasets in subsequent work.

Buster, Grant↗

DOE OSTI2022

Important role of stratospheric injection height for the distribution and radiative forcing of smoke aerosol from the 2019–2020 Australian wildfires

More than 1 Tg smoke aerosol was emitted into the atmosphere by the exceptional 2019–2020 southeastern Australian wildfires. Triggered by the extreme fire heat, several deep pyroconvective events carried the smoke directly into the stratosphere. Once there, smoke aerosol remained airborne considerably longer than in lower atmospheric layers. The thick plumes traveled eastward, thereby being distributed across the high and mid-latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, enhancing the atmospheric opacity. Due to the increased atmospheric lifetime of the smoke plume, its radiative effect increased compared to smoke that remains in lower altitudes. Global models describing aerosol-climate impacts lack adequate descriptions of the emission height of aerosols from intense wildfires. Here, we demonstrate, by a combination of aerosol-climate modeling and lidar observations, the importance of the representation of those high-altitude fire smoke layers for estimating the atmospheric energy budget. Through observation-based input into the simulations, the Australian wildfire emissions by pyroconvection are explicitly prescribed to the lower stratosphere in different scenarios. Based on our simulations, the 2019–2020 Australian fires caused a significant top-of-atmosphere (TOA) hemispheric instantaneous direct radiative forcing signal that reached a magnitude comparable to the radiative forcing induced by anthropogenic absorbing aerosol. Up to +0.50 W m -2 instantaneous direct radiative forcing was modeled at TOA, averaged for the Southern Hemisphere (+0.25 W m -2 globally) from January to March 2020 under all-sky conditions. At the surface, on the other hand, an instantaneous solar radiative forcing of up to -0.81 W m -2 was found for clear-sky conditions, with the respective estimates depending on the model configuration and subject to the model uncertainties in the smoke optical properties. Since extreme wildfires are expected to occur more frequently in the rapidly changing climate, our findings suggest that high-altitude wildfire plumes must be adequately considered in climate projections in order to obtain reasonable estimates of atmospheric energy budget changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Primer: Physical Factors of Agricultural Production & Climate Change

This white paper is a primer on physical factors that influence agricultural production and associated touchpoints to climate change. Agricultural production (which includes both crop and livestock production) is critical for food security and supports other economic products, such as textiles and generation of fuels for energy. Various physical factors influence agricultural production, including the crop types being cultivated and livestock being raised; land area and quality; water access and control; fertilizers, pesticides, and antibiotics; labor; and infrastructure associated with processing, storage, and transportation. These factors are impacted by climate change in both chronic and acute ways, from changing temperatures and precipitation patterns to increased prevalence of extreme events and diseases. We draw on examples from around the world to show the complex ways that agricultural production factors and climate interact with local capacities to influence regions around the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system continues to be of great interest. Recent simulations suggest the possibility of significant changes in both large-scale aspects of the ocean and atmospheric circulations and in the regional responses to climate change, as well as improvements in representations of small-scale processes and extremes, when resolution is enhanced. The first phase of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP1) was successful at producing a baseline multi-model assessment of global simulations with model grid spacings of 25–50 km in the atmosphere and 10–25 km in the ocean, a significant increase when compared to models with standard resolutions on the order of 1° that are typically used as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments. In addition to over 250 peer-reviewed manuscripts using the published HighResMIP1 datasets, the results were widely cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and were the basis of a variety of derived datasets, including tracked cyclones (both tropical and extratropical), river discharge, storm surge, and impact studies. There were also suggestions from the few ocean eddy-rich coupled simulations that aspects of climate variability and change might be significantly influenced by improved process representation in such models. The compromises that HighResMIP1 made should now be revisited, given the recent major advances in modelling and computing resources. Aspects that will be reconsidered include experimental design and simulation length, complexity, and resolution. In addition, larger ensemble sizes and a wider range of future scenarios would enhance the applicability of HighResMIP. Therefore, we propose the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) to improve and extend the previous work, to address new science questions, and to further advance our understanding of the role of horizontal resolution (and hence process representation) in state-of-the-art climate simulations. With further increases in high-performance computing resources and modelling advances, along with the ability to take full advantage of these computational resources, an enhanced investigation of the drivers and consequences of variability and change in both large- and synoptic-scale weather and climate is now possible. With the arrival of global cloud-resolving models (currently run for relatively short timescales), there is also an opportunity to improve links between such models and more traditional CMIP models, with HighResMIP providing a bridge to link understanding between these domains. HighResMIP also aims to link to other CMIP projects and international efforts such as the World Climate Research Program lighthouse activities and various digital twin initiatives. It also has the potential to be used as training and validation data for the fast-evolving machine learning climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Hydropower Operational Flexibilities in Presence of Streamflow and Net-load Uncertainty (Final Technical report)

In the existing operations, hydropower contributions to future system flexibility are generally modeled while maintaining traditional operating rules and constraints in supporting grid operation, such as the balancing of variable renewable energy production. Moreover, operation of large scale hydropower systems on major rivers has been investigated for decades, utilizing various systems engineering approaches, with the evolving electric grid, as the result of renewable resources integration, compounded by the changing climate (variability of river flows, intensification of hydrologic cycle resulting in more frequent extreme events) affecting water availability, the need for more advanced stochastic modeling and effective uncertainty analysis approaches have become necessary. The research results supported by this funding and presented in this report provide a new look at hydropower operational flexibility enforced by the changes identified above. Understanding how hydropower operates in response to the underlying uncertainties with respect to the system constraints is crucial in identifying its operational flexibility potentials. In this project, the flexibility of the operating hydropower facility is described by capturing uncertainties in both water and power system and formulating the operations as a multistage stochastic optimization problem. The proposed approach supports short- to seasonal-term operations and planning decision horizons.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gaps and ways forward in atmospheric blocking and extreme weather research

Atmospheric blocking often results in significant weather extremes, such as heatwaves, droughts, cold spells, and floods in mid-latitude regions. However, the physical processes behind blocking and its response to climate change are not well understood, which undermines predictions and decision-making for climate mitigation and adaptation. As a phenomenon with a timescale at the interface of weather and climate, blocking interacts with various elements of the climate system and connects short-term weather events to long-term climate extremes. Understanding atmospheric blocking is crucial, given that climate change may impact its frequency, duration, and geographic distribution. This perspective discusses new experimental approaches to improve our understanding of this important subject.

Wang, Lei [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of organized convective storms to model grid spacing in current and future climates

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are complexes of thunderstorms that become organized and cover hundreds of kilometres over several hours. MCSs are prolific rain producers in the tropics and mid-latitudes and are the major cause of warm-season flooding. Traditionally, climate models have difficulties in simulating MCSs partly due to the misrepresentation of complex process interactions that operate across a large range of scales. Significant improvements in simulating MCSs have been found in kilometre-scale models that explicitly simulate deep convection. However, these models operate in the grey zone of turbulent motion and have known deficiencies in simulating small-scale processes (e.g. entrainment, vertical mass transport). Here, we perform mid-latitude idealized ensemble MCS simulations under current and future climate conditions in three atmospheric regimes: hydrostatic (12 km horizontal grid spacing; Δx), non-hydrostatic (Δx = 4, 2 and 1 km) and large eddy scale (Δx = 500 m and 250 m). Our results show a dramatic improvement in simulating MCS precipitation, movement, cold pools, and cloud properties when transitioning from 12 km to 4 km Δx. Decreasing Δx beyond 4 km results in modest improvements except for up- and downdraft sizes, average vertical mass fluxes, and cloud top height and temperature, which continue to change. Most important for climate modelling is that Δx = 4 km simulations reliably capture most MCS climate change signals compared to those of the Δx = 250 m runs. Significantly different climate change signals are found in Δx = 12 km runs that overestimate extreme precipitation changes by up to 100%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Energy Resource-Cognizant Upgrade Paths to the Traditional Restoration Strategy of Utilities for Improved Load Restoration

Climate change has resulted in increasingly impactful and more frequent occurrences of extreme weather events. This trend poses a significant challenge for distribution utilities and system operators to ensure that there is uninterrupted power supply to critical loads in their networks under fault scenarios; however, currently, utilities deploying the automated fault location, isolation and restoration (FLISR) function in their advanced distribution management system (ADMS) do not take into account the available generation and load-modification capabilities of distributed energy resources present in the disconnected network due to an upstream isolated fault. This results in the network reconfiguration and restoration to result in sub-optimal load restoration. Therefore, this paper presents two approaches that can upgrade the existing FLISR capabilities of distribution utilities to significantly increase the restoration of critical loads. The performance of the proposed approaches is evaluated on a numerical model of a real distribution feeder in Georgia, USA.

DER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Satellite-Based Ranking of the World’s Hottest and Coldest Cities Reveals Inequitable Distribution of Temperature Extremes

The identification of the world’s hottest and coldest cities fascinates both the public and the scientific community. However, the ranking of city temperatures, especially from the perspective of human discomfort, has been difficult. Here we estimated the monthly mean maximum and minimum 1-km resolution urban temperatures of 13,135 cities worldwide (2003–19) from the thermal discomfort perspective by combining in situ measurements, satellite-based land surface temperatures, fine-resolution intracity data, and reanalysis data. Manama, Bahrain, was identified as the hottest city (48.18° ± 1.31°C) and Yakutsk, Russia (–42.96° ± 0.72°C), as the coldest city. The global city temperatures followed a power-law pattern, characterized by cities with <0.3 million inhabitants covering 80% of the top 20% global cities with extreme temperatures. Our study reveals an inequitable pattern of global city temperature extremes and highlights the urgency of developing appropriate strategies to reduce climate change risks in small- and medium-sized cities with low development levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Quantum-AI Framework for Extreme Weather Prediction

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in North America will likely increase with a changing climate. High resolution simulations are necessary to advance process-based understanding of weather events at local scales accompanying future changes in global atmospheric circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Energy Resource-Cognizant Upgrade Paths to the Traditional Restoration Strategy of Utilities for Improved Load Restoration: Preprint

DER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporal Super-Resolution with Generative Machine Learning for Creating Renewable Energy Resource Data Under Climate Change Scenarios

As we plan for a future with higher penetrations of renewables and increasing electrification, it becomes more important to understand how the electricity grid will operate under a variety of weather events. We must also consider that the weather our future grid will experience will be different and possibly more extreme than the historical weather that we have extensive data for. We can use data from global climate models (GCMs) to help understand how our climate may change over the next several decades, but there is often a significant gap between the low-resolution GCM data and the high-resolution weather data required to study power systems under specific weather events. Therefore, our objective in this work is to develop tools that can bridge this gap by using low-resolution GCM data to create realistic high-resolution weather datasets that can be used to study renewable energy generation and electricity demand. To accomplish this objective, we have developed a set of generative machine learning models that can rapidly downscale GCM daily average output data at an approximate grid resolution of 100km to hourly data at an approximate 4 km grid resolution. The models can be used to create high resolution data from nearly any GCM included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 5 or 6. Our methods include all datasets regularly used to study the integration of wind and solar power plants as well as changes in electricity demand due to heating and cooling loads. These models and datasets enable power systems modelers to study climate change-influenced weather events and their impact on the grid. We have downscaled and validated wind, solar, temperature, and humidity data with very promising results. The generative machine learning methods are computationally efficient and produce data that has similar statistical characteristics to current state-of-the-art historical datasets. We have trained initial generative models and produced an initial dataset collectively referred to as Sup3rCC: Super-Resolved Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts. The data covers a (mostly) historical period from 2015-2025 and a future period from 2050-2059. We have also taken hypothetical high-electrification load data and scaled the heating and cooling loads with respect to the 2050-2059 high-resolution Sup3rCC meteorology. The results show how future levels of renewable energy generation and electrified load may be impacted by climate change, setting the stage for capacity expansion models to consider a dynamic climate through model years.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2023

Drought and Extreme Heat Impacts to Data Centers in Northern California

Commonly, data centers are designed and operated on the assumption of stationarity of the climate. Historical weather data informs the basis of their design and operations. However, as a result of climate change, this assumption is not valid and poses a great risk for data centers. In the coming decades, Northern California’s drought and extreme heat risk is projected to increase significantly. This report provides a drought and extreme heat impacts assessment of data centers in this region. Expert solicitation of data center experts enabled a tailored approach to this report. We identify the climate variables and analytics relevant for assessing data center-specific impacts from extreme heat and drought and demonstrate how to access and understand future climate projections from climate models. We emphasize the importance of including future climate projections into data center design and planning. This report is an important first step towards building an effective extreme heat and drought adaptation strategy for data centers in Northern California. While our geographical focus in this report is Northern California, many findings in this report are broadly applicable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pushing the frontiers in climate modelling and analysis with machine learning

Climate modelling and analysis are facing new demands to enhance projections and climate information. Here, in this study, we argue that now is the time to push the frontiers of machine learning beyond state-of-the-art approaches, not only by developing machine-learning-based Earth system models with greater fidelity, but also by providing new capabilities through emulators for extreme event projections with large ensembles, enhanced detection and attribution methods for extreme events, and advanced climate model analysis and benchmarking. Utilizing this potential requires key machine learning challenges to be addressed, in particular generalization, uncertainty quantification, explainable artificial intelligence and causality. This interdisciplinary effort requires bringing together machine learning and climate scientists, while also leveraging the private sector, to accelerate progress towards actionable climate science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗