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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Improved time-delay lens modelling and H 0 inference with transient sources

ABSTRACT Strongly lensed explosive transients such as supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, fast radio bursts, and gravitational waves are very promising tools to determine the Hubble constant (H0) in the near future in addition to strongly lensed quasars. In this work, we show that the transient nature of the point source provides an advantage over quasars: The lensed host galaxy can be observed before or after the transient’s appearance. Therefore, the lens model can be derived from images free of contamination from bright point sources. We quantify this advantage by comparing the precision of a lens model obtained from the same lenses with and without point sources. Based on Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) observations with the same sets of lensing parameters, we simulate realistic mock data sets of 48 quasar lensing systems (i.e. adding AGN in the galaxy centre) and 48 galaxy–galaxy lensing systems (assuming the transient source is not visible but the time delay and image positions have been or will be measured). We then model the images and compare the inferences of the lens model parameters and H0. We find that the precision of the lens models (in terms of the deflector mass slope) is better by a factor of 4.1 for the sample without lensed point sources, resulting in an increase of H0 precision by a factor of 2.9. The opportunity to observe the lens systems without the transient point sources provides an additional advantage for time-delay cosmography over lensed quasars. It facilitates the determination of higher signal-to-noise stellar kinematics of the main deflector, and thus its mass density profile, which, in turn plays a key role in breaking the mass-sheet degeneracy and constraining H0.

Ding, Xuheng↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probing gravity with the DES-CMASS sample and BOSS spectroscopy

ABSTRACT The DES-CMASS sample (DMASS) is designed to optimally combine the weak lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and redshift-space distortions (RSD) probed by the CMASS galaxy sample from the Baryonic Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey. In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of adopting DMASS as the equivalent of CMASS for a joint analysis of DES and BOSS in the framework of modified gravity. We utilize the angular clustering of the DMASS galaxies, cosmic shear of the DES metacalibration sources, and cross-correlation of the two as data vectors. By jointly fitting the combination of the data with the RSD measurements from the CMASS sample and Planck data, we obtain the constraints on modified gravity parameters $\mu _0=-0.37^{+0.47}_{-0.45}$ and $\Sigma _0=0.078^{+0.078}_{-0.082}$. Our constraints of modified gravity with DMASS are tighter than those with the DES Year 1 redMaGiC sample with the same external data sets by 29 per cent for μ0 and 21 per cent for Σ0, and comparable to the published results of the DES Year 1 modified gravity analysis despite this work using fewer external data sets. This improvement is mainly because the galaxy bias parameter is shared and more tightly constrained by both CMASS and DMASS, effectively breaking the degeneracy between the galaxy bias and other cosmological parameters. Such an approach to optimally combine photometric and spectroscopic surveys using a photometric sample equivalent to a spectroscopic sample can be applied to combining future surveys having a limited overlap such as DESI and LSST.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

CRNT4SBML: a Python package for the detection of bistability in biochemical reaction networks

Motivation: Signaling pathways capable of switching between two states are ubiquitous within living organisms. They provide the cells with the means to produce reversible or irreversible decisions. Switchlike behavior of biological systems is realized through biochemical reaction networks capable of having two or more distinct steady states which are dependent on initial conditions. Investigation of whether a certain signaling pathway can confer bistability involves a substantial amount of hypothesis testing. The cost of direct experimental testing can be prohibitive. Therefore, constraining the hypothesis space is highly bene?cial. One such methodology is based on Chemical Reaction Network Theory which uses computational techniques to rule out pathways that are not capable of bistability regardless of kinetic constant values and molecule concentrations. Although useful, these methods are complicated from both pureandcomputationalmathematicsperspectives.Thus,theiradoptionisverylimitedamongstbiologists. Results: We brought Chemical Reaction Network Theory approaches closer to experimental biologists by automating all the necessary steps in CRNT4SMBL. The input is based on SBML format which is the community standard for biological pathway communication. The tool parses SBML and derives C-graph representations of the biological pathway with mass action kinetics. Next steps involve an ef?cient search for potential saddle-node bifurcation points using an optimization technique. This type of bifurcation is important as it has the potential of acting as a switching point between two steady states. Finally, if any bifurcation points are present, numerical continuation analysis extends the equilibria branches for generating the diagram. Presence of an S-shaped bifurcation diagram indicates that the pathway acts as a bistable switch for the given optimization parameters. Availability: CRNT4SBML is available via the Python Package Index. The documentation can be found at https://crnt4sbml.readthedocs.io. CRNT4SBML is licensed under the Apache Software License 2.0. Contact: vladislav.petyuk@pnnl.gov

Reyes, Brandon C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cosmology from clustering, cosmic shear, CMB lensing, and cross correlations: combining Rubin observatory and Simons Observatory

ABSTRACT In the near future, the overlap of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Simons Observatory (SO) will present an ideal opportunity for joint cosmological data set analyses. In this paper, we simulate the joint likelihood analysis of these two experiments using six two-point functions derived from galaxy position, galaxy shear, and CMB lensing convergence fields. Our analysis focuses on realistic noise and systematics models and we find that the dark energy Figure of merit (FoM) increases by 53 per cent (92 per cent) from LSST-only to LSST+SO in Year 1 (Year 6). We also investigate the benefits of using the same galaxy sample for both clustering and lensing analyses, and find the choice improves the overall signal to noise by ${\sim}30{-}40{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, which significantly improves the photo-z calibration and mildly improves the cosmological constraints. Finally, we explore the effects of catastrophic photo-z outliers finding that they cause significant parameter biases when ignored. We develop a new mitigation approach termed ‘island model’, which corrects a large fraction of the biases with only a few parameters while preserving the constraining power.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rapidity-dependent spin decomposition of the nucleon

We revisit the two-dimensional Fourier transform of generalized parton distributions (GPDs) at nonzero skewness. At 𝜂 = 0 it reduces to the standard impact-parameter density, while at 𝜂 ≠ 0 it is an off-forward amplitude that we interpret as a genuine parton–nucleon correlation. Its overall strength (the transverse-plane integral of the density) is fixed by the GPD at the kinematic point 𝑡 =−𝑐 𝜂 =−4⁢𝜂 2 ⁢𝑚$^{2}_{𝑁}$/(1 − 𝜂 2 ) and decreases monotonically with the rapidity gap Δ⁢𝑦 = ln⁡[(1+𝜂)/(1−𝜂)] = 2 artanh⁡(𝜂). This rapidity dependence implies rapidity-modified Ji identities that connect helicity, orbital, and total angular momenta of the correlation in closed form. To quantify these effects, we construct leading-twist quark and gluon GPDs in a string-based conformal framework: conformal moments are parametrized by linear open- and closed-string Regge trajectories with slopes constrained by parton distribution functions (PDFs), hadron/glueball spectroscopy, and form-factor data, and GPDs are reconstructed over the full (𝑥,𝜂,𝑡) domain by Mellin-Barnes inversion with next-to-leading order evolution. We find qualitative agreement (and fair quantitative agreement within quoted uncertainties) for several moments and selected nonsinglet 𝑥-space channels at 𝜇 = 2 GeV when compared with lattice QCD, while we also identify channels with visible tension and discuss likely sources (PDF priors and 𝑡-slope systematics).

Gauge-gravity dualities↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model-independent constraints on Ωm and H ( z ) from the link between geometry and growth

ABSTRACT We constrain the expansion history of the Universe and the cosmological matter density fraction in a model-independent way by exclusively making use of the relationship between background and perturbations under a minimal set of assumptions. We do so by employing a Gaussian process to model the expansion history of the Universe from present time to the recombination era. The expansion history and the cosmological matter density are then constrained using recent measurements from cosmic chronometers, Type-Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, and redshift-space distortion data. Our results show that the evolution in the reconstructed expansion history is compatible with the Planck 2018 prediction at all redshifts. The current data considered in this study can constrain a Gaussian process on H(z) to an average $9.4 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ precision across redshift. We find Ωm = 0.224 ± 0.066, lower but statistically compatible with the Planck 2018 cosmology. Finally, the combination of future DESI measurements with the CMB measurement considered in this work holds the promise of $8 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ average constraints on a model-independent expansion history as well as a five-fold tighter Ωm constraint using the methodology developed in this work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Astrophysical Neutrino Sources as Colliders

High-energy neutrinos arise from processes at large center-of-mass energies, offering a window to test physics at comparable scales or beyond those accessible in collider experiments on Earth. Here, we present a recipe for extracting two-sided bounds on the inelastic $pp$ and $pγ$ cross sections from neutrino point-source data, by independently constraining every astrophysical input (cosmic-ray luminosities and target densities) through electromagnetic observations or theoretical arguments. The cross section is then the only remaining free parameter. Applying this framework to the IceCube associations with TXS~0506+056, NGC~1068, and the Galactic Plane, to a stacked population of eleven X-ray bright Seyfert galaxies, to the ultra-high-energy KM3NeT event KM3-230213A, and to projected observations of ultra-high-energy neutrinos, we obtain constraints that span center-of-mass energies from $\sqrt{s}\sim 1$ GeV to $\sim 10^{5}$ GeV, some of which are well beyond the reach of the LHC and, for the $pγ$ channel, beyond HERA. Several of these bounds are more stringent than unitarity limits.

Argüelles, Carlos A. [Harvard U.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. II. A Joint Analysis of Trans-Neptunian Absolute Magnitudes, Colors, Light Curves and Dynamics

For the 696 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with absolute magnitudes 5.5 < H r < 8.2 detected in the Dark Energy Survey, we characterize the relationships between their dynamical state and physical properties—namely H r , indicating size; colors, indicating surface composition; and flux variation semiamplitude A, indicating asphericity and surface inhomogeneity. We seek “birth” physical distributions that can recreate these parameters in every dynamical class. We show that the observed colors of these TNOs are consistent with two Gaussian distributions in griz space, “near-infrared bright” (NIRB) and “near-infrared faint” (NIRF), presumably an inner and outer birth population, respectively. We find a model in which both the NIRB and NIRF H r and A distributions are independent of current dynamical states, supporting their assignment as birth populations. All objects are consistent with a common rolling p(H r ), but NIRF objects are significantly more variable. Cold classicals (CCs) are purely NIRF, while hot classical (HC), scattered, and detached TNOs are consistent with ≈ 70% NIRB and the resonance NIRB fractions show significant variation. The NIRB components of the HCs and of some resonances have broader inclination distributions than the NIRFs, i.e. their current dynamics retains information about birth location. We find evidence for radial stratification within the birth NIRB population, in that HC NIRBs are on average redder than detached or scattered NIRBs; a similar effect distinguishes CCs from other NIRFs. We estimate total object counts and masses of each class within our H r range. These results will strongly constrain models of the outer solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cosmological analysis of three-dimensional BOSS galaxy clustering and Planck CMB lensing cross correlations via Lagrangian perturbation theory

In this work, we present a formalism for jointly fitting pre- and post-reconstruction redshift-space clustering (RSD) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) plus gravitational lensing (of the CMB) that works directly with the observed 2-point statistics. The formalism is based upon (effective) Lagrangian perturbation theory and a Lagrangian bias expansion, which models RSD, BAO and galaxy-lensing cross correlations within a consistent dynamical framework. As an example we present an analysis of clustering measured by the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey in combination with CMB lensing measured by Planck. The post-reconstruction BAO strongly constrains the distance-redshift relation, the full-shape redshift-space clustering constrains the matter density and growth rate, and CMB lensing constrains the clustering amplitude. Using only the redshift space data we obtain Ω m = 0.303 ± 0.008, $H_0$ = 69.21 ± 0.78 and $σ_8$ = 0.743 ± 0.043. The addition of lensing information, even when restricted to the Northern Galactic Cap, improves constraints to Ω m = 0.303 ± 0.008, $H_0$ = 69.21 ± 0.77 and $σ_8$ = 0.707 ± 0.035, in tension with CMB and cosmic shear constraints. The combination of Ω m and $H_0$ are consistent with Planck, though their constraints derive mostly from redshift-space clustering. The low $σ_8$ value are driven by cross correlations with CMB lensing in the low redshift bin ($\textit{z}$ ≃ 0.38) and at large angular scales, which show a 20% deficit compared to expectations from galaxy clustering alone. We conduct several systematics tests on the data and find none that could fully explain these tensions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weak lensing mass-richness relation of redMaPPer clusters in LSST DESC DC2 simulations

Cluster scaling relations are key ingredients in cluster abundance-based cosmological studies. In optical cluster cosmology, where clusters are detected through their richness, cluster-weak gravitational lensing has proven to be a powerful tool to constrain the cluster mass-richness relation. This work is conducted as part of the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), which aims to analyze the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, starting in 2026. Cluster properties inferred from weak lensing, such as mass, suffer from several sources of bias. In this paper, we aim to test the impact of modeling choices and observational systematics in cluster lensing on the inference of the mass-richness relation. We constrained the mass-richness relation of 3600 clusters detected by the redMaPPer algorithm in the cosmoDC2 extragalactic mock catalog of the LSST DESC DC2 simulation, covering 440 deg 2 , using number count measurements and either stacked weak lensing profiles or mean cluster masses in several intervals of richness (20 ≤ λ ≤ 200) and redshift (0.2 ≤ z ≤ 1). We provide the first constraints on the redMaPPer cluster mass-richness relation detected in cosmoDC2. We find that for an LSST-like source galaxy density, our constraints are robust to changes in the concentration-mass relation, as well as the dark matter density profile modeling choices, when source redshifts and shapes are perfectly known. We find that photometric redshift uncertainties can introduce bias at the 1σ level, which could be mitigated by an overall correction factor fitted jointly with the scaling parameters. We find that including positive shear-richness covariance in the fit shifts the results by up to 0.5σ. Our constraints also offer a fair comparison to a fiducial mass-richness relation, obtained from matching cosmoDC2 halo masses to redMaPPer-detected cluster richness results.

galaxy clusters↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining physical models at gigabar pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative infor mation. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. As a result, the goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiprobe cosmology from the abundance of SPT clusters and DES galaxy clustering and weak lensing

Cosmic shear, galaxy clustering, and the abundance of massive halos each probe the large-scale structure of the Universe in complementary ways. We present cosmological constraints from the joint analysis of the three probes, building on the latest analyses of the lensing-informed abundance of clusters identified by the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and of the auto- and cross-correlation of galaxy position and weak lensing measurements (3 × 2 ⁢pt) in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We consider the cosmological correlation between the different tracers and we account for the systematic uncertainties that are shared between the large-scale lensing correlation functions and the small-scale lensing-based cluster mass calibration. Marginalized over the remaining Λ cold dark matter (Λ ⁢CDM) parameters (including the sum of neutrino masses) and 52 astrophysical modeling parameters, we measure Ω m = 0.300 ± 0.017 and 𝜎 8 = 0.797 ± 0.026. Compared to constraints from Planck primary cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, our constraints are only 15% wider with a probability to exceed of 0.22 (1.2⁢𝜎) for the two-parameter difference. We further obtain 𝑆 8 ≡𝜎 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = 0.796 ± 0.013 which is lower than the Planck measurement at the 1.6⁢𝜎 level. The combined SPT cluster, DES 3 ×2 ⁢pt, and Planck datasets mildly prefer a nonzero positive neutrino mass, with a 95% upper limit ∑ 𝑚 𝜈 < 0.25 eV on the sum of neutrino masses. Assuming a 𝑤⁢CDM model, we constrain the dark energy equation of state parameter 𝑤 = −1.1⁢5$^{+0.23}_{−0.17}$ and when combining with Planck primary CMB anisotropies, we recover 𝑤 = −1.2⁢0$^{+0.15}_{−0.09}$, a 1.7⁢𝜎 difference with a cosmological constant. The precision of our results highlights the benefits of multiwavelength multiprobe cosmology and our analysis paves the way for upcoming joint analyses of next-generation datasets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

SALT3: An Improved Type Ia Supernova Model for Measuring Cosmic Distances

Abstract A spectral-energy distribution (SED) model for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is a critical tool for measuring precise and accurate distances across a large redshift range and constraining cosmological parameters. We present an improved model framework, SALT3, which has several advantages over current models—including the leading SALT2 model (SALT2.4). While SALT3 has a similar philosophy, it differs from SALT2 by having improved estimation of uncertainties, better separation of color and light-curve stretch, and a publicly available training code. We present the application of our training method on a cross-calibrated compilation of 1083 SNe with 1207 spectra. Our compilation is 2.5× larger than the SALT2 training sample and has greatly reduced calibration uncertainties. The resulting trained SALT3.K21 model has an extended wavelength range 2000–11,000 Å (1800 Å redder) and reduced uncertainties compared to SALT2, enabling accurate use of low- z I and iz photometric bands. Including these previously discarded bands, SALT3.K21 reduces the Hubble scatter of the low- z Foundation and CfA3 samples by 15% and 10%, respectively. To check for potential systematic uncertainties, we compare distances of low (0.01 < z < 0.2) and high (0.4 < z < 0.6) redshift SNe in the training compilation, finding an insignificant 3 ± 14 mmag shift between SALT2.4 and SALT3.K21. While the SALT3.K21 model was trained on optical data, our method can be used to build a model for rest-frame NIR samples from the Roman Space Telescope. Our open-source training code, public training data, model, and documentation are available at https://saltshaker.readthedocs.io/en/latest/ , and the model is integrated into the sncosmo and SNANA software packages.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurements of the thermal and ionization state of the intergalactic medium during the cosmic afternoon

We perform the first measurement of the thermal and ionization state of the intergalactic medium (IGM) across 0.9 < z < 1.5 using 301 Ly α absorption lines fitted from 12 archival Hubble Space Telescope Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph quasar spectra. We employ the machine-learning-based inference method that uses joint Doppler parameter–column density (⁠b-N HI ⁠) distributions obtained from Ly α forest decomposition. Our results show that the Γ HI photoionization rates, ⁠, agree with recent ultraviolet background synthesis models, with log(Γ HI /s -1 ) = $-11.79^{+0.18}_{-0.15}$, $-11.98^{+0.09}_{-0.09}$⁠, and $-12.32^{+0.10}_{-0.12}$⁠, at z = 1.4, 1.2, and 1, respectively. We obtain the IGM temperature at the mean density, T 0 ⁠, and the adiabatic index, γ⁠, as [log(T 0 /K), γ] = $[4.13^{+0.12}_{-0.10}, 1.34^{+0.10}_{-0.15}]$, $[3.79^{+0.11}_{-0.11}, 1.70^{+0.09}_{-0.09}]$, and $[4.12^{+0.15}_{-0.25}, 1.34^{+0.21}_{-0.26}]$ at z = 1.4⁠, 1.2, and 1. Our measurements of T 0 at z = 1.4 and 1.2 are consistent with the trend predicted from previous z < 3 temperature measurements and theoretical expectations, where the IGM cools down after $He\tiny{II}$ reionization in the absence of any non-standard heating. However, our T 0 measurement at z = 1 unexpectedly high IGM temperature. Given the relatively large uncertainty in these measurements, where σ T$_0$ ~ 5000 K, mostly emanating from the limited size of our data set, we cannot conclude whether the IGM cools down as expected. Lastly, we generate mock data sets to test the constraining power of future measurement with larger data sets. The results demonstrate that, with redshift path-length Δz ~ 2 for each redshift bin, three times the current data set, we can constrain the T 0 of IGM within 1500 K, which would be sufficient to constrain the IGM thermal history at z < 1.5 conclusively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Cosmological constraints from second- and third-order shear statistics

Here, we present a cosmological analysis of the third-order aperture mass statistic using Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) data. We perform a complete tomographic measurement of the three-point correlation function of the Y3 weak lensing shape catalog with the four fiducial source redshift bins. Building upon our companion methodology paper, we apply a pipeline that combines the two-point function ξ ± with the mass aperture skewness statistic ⟨ M ap 3 ⟩ , which is an efficient compression of the full shear three-point function. We use a suite of simulated shear maps to obtain a joint covariance matrix. By jointly analyzing ξ ± and ⟨ M ap 3 ⟩ measured from DES Y3 data with a Λ CDM model, we find S 8 = 0.780 ± 0.015 and Ω m = 0.26 6 - 0.040 + 0.039 , yielding 111% of figure-of-merit improvement in the Ω m - S 8 plane relative to ξ ± alone, consistent with expectations from simulated likelihood analyses. With a w CDM model, we find S 8 = 0.74 9 - 0.026 + 0.027 and w 0 = - 1.39 ± 0.31 , which gives an improvement of 22% on the joint S 8 - w 0 constraint. Our results are consistent with w 0 = - 1 . Our new constraints are compared to CMB data from the Planck satellite, and we find that with the inclusion of ⟨ M ap 3 ⟩ the existing tension between the datasets is at the level of 2.3 σ . We show that the third-order statistic enables us to self-calibrate the mean photometric redshift uncertainty parameter of the highest redshift bin with little degradation in the figure of merit. Our results demonstrate the constraining power of higher-order lensing statistics and establish ⟨ M ap 3 ⟩ as a practical observable for joint analyses in current and future surveys.

Gomes, R. C. H. [University of Pennsylvania] (ORCI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aircraft in-situ measurements from SOCRATES constrain the anthropogenic perturbations of cloud droplet number

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in warm clouds alter reflected shortwave radiation by influencing cloud microphysical and macrophysical properties. The variable of state controlling ACI is the cloud droplet number concentration (N d ). Here, we examine the perturbations in N d due to anthropogenic aerosols (ΔN d, PD-PI ) using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the sixth Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6). Surrogate models are created for the CAM6 PPE outputs and are used to generate 1 million model variants of CAM6 by sampling 45 sources of parameter uncertainty. The range of uncertain physical parameters related to ACI are constrained with observations of aerosol and cloud properties from SOCRATES. The likely range of uncertain parameters and the associated range of ΔN d, PD-PI are more strongly constrained with observations of N d relative to observations of cloud condensation nuclei. We conduct sensitivity tests of how constraints on ΔN d, PD-PI are affected by systematic uncertainties in observations and our limitations in our surrogate models created for CAM6 PPE outputs. Based on this, we provide guidance on the impact of reducing systematic uncertainty in airborne microphysical observations and in surrogate models.

Song, Ci [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United St↗
DOE OSTI2025

Delving into the depths of NGC 3783 with XRISM

We present our study of the X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) observation of the Seyfert-1 galaxy NGC 3783. XRISM’s Resolve microcalorimeter has enabled, for the first time, a detailed characterization of the highly ionized outflows in this active galactic nucleus. Our analysis constrains their outflow and turbulent velocities, along with their ionization parameter (ξ) and column density (N H ). The high-resolution Resolve spectrum reveals a distinct series of Fe absorption lines between 6.4 and 7.8 keV, ranging from Fe XVIII to Fe XXVI. At lower energies (1.8−3.3 keV), absorption features from Si, S, and Ar are also detected. Our spectroscopy and photoionization modeling of the time-averaged Resolve spectrum uncovers six outflow components, five of which exhibit relatively narrow absorption lines with outflow velocities ranging from 560 to 1170 km s −1 . In addition, a broad absorption feature is detected, which is consistent with Fe XXVI outflowing at 14 300 km s −1 (0.05 c). The kinetic luminosity of this component is 0.8−3% of the bolometric luminosity. Our analysis of the Resolve spectrum shows that more highly ionized absorption lines are intrinsically broader than those of lower-ionization species, indicating that the turbulent velocity of the six outflow components (ranging from 0 to 3500 km s −1 ) increases with ξ. Furthermore, we find that the column density (N H ) of the outflows generally declines with the ionization parameter up to log ξ = 3.2 but rises beyond this point, suggesting a complex ionization structure. The absorption profile of the Fe XXV resonance line is intriguingly similar to UV absorption lines (Lyα and C IV) observed by the Hubble Space Telescope, from which we infer that the outflows are clumpy in nature. Our XRISM/Resolve results from lower- and higher-ionization regimes support a “hybrid wind” scenario in which the observed outflows have multiple origins and driving mechanisms. We explore various interpretations of our findings within active galactic nucleus wind models.

X-rays: galaxies↗