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At least 271 records · Page 15

Constraints on the Correlation of IceCube Neutrinos with a Tracer of Nearby Large-scale Structure

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory has observed extragalactic astrophysical neutrinos with an apparently isotropic distribution. Only a small fraction of the observed astrophysical neutrinos can be explained by known sources. Neutrino production is thought to occur in energetic environments that are ultimately powered by the gravitational collapse of dense regions of the large-scale mass distribution in the universe. Whatever their identity, neutrino sources likely trace this large-scale mass distribution. The clustering of neutrinos with a tracer of the large-scale structure may provide insight into the distribution of neutrino sources with respect to redshift and the identity of neutrino sources. We implement a two-point angular cross correlation of the Northern sky track events with an infrared galaxy catalog derived from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) and Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) source catalogs, which trace the nearby large-scale structure. No statistically significant correlation is found between the neutrinos and this infrared galaxy catalog. We find that ≤54% of the diffuse muon neutrino flux can be attributed to sources correlated with the galaxy catalog with 90% confidence. Additionally, when assuming that the neutrino source comoving density evolves following a power law in redshift, dN s /dV ∝ (1 + z) k , we find that sources with negative evolution, in particular k < −1.75, are disfavored at the 90% confidence level.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University, Chicago, IL (United↗

Imaging systematics and clustering of DESI main targets

ABSTRACT We evaluate the impact of imaging systematics on the clustering of luminous red galaxies (LRG), emission-line galaxies (ELG), and quasars (QSO) targeted for the upcoming Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. Using Data Release 7 of the DECam Legacy Survey, we study the effects of astrophysical foregrounds, stellar contamination, differences between north galactic cap and south galactic cap measurements, and variations in imaging depth, stellar density, galactic extinction, seeing, airmass, sky brightness, and exposure time before presenting survey masks and weights to mitigate these effects. With our sanitized samples in hand, we conduct a preliminary analysis of the clustering amplitude and evolution of the DESI main targets. From measurements of the angular correlation functions, we determine power law fits $r_0 = 7.78 \pm 0.26\, h^{-1}$Mpc, γ = 1.98 ± 0.02 for LRGs and $r_0 = 5.45 \pm 0.1\, h^{-1}$Mpc, γ = 1.54 ± 0.01 for ELGs. Additionally, from the angular power spectra, we measure the linear biases and model the scale-dependent biases in the weakly non-linear regime. Both sets of clustering measurements show good agreement with survey requirements for LRGs and ELGs, attesting that these samples will enable DESI to achieve precise cosmological constraints. We also present clustering as a function of magnitude, use cross-correlations with external spectroscopy to infer dN/dz and measure clustering as a function of luminosity, and probe higher order clustering statistics through counts-in-cells moments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Redshift Calibration of the Weak Lensing Source Galaxies

Determining the distribution of redshifts for galaxies in wide-field photometric surveys is essential for robust cosmological studies of weak gravitational lensing. We present the methodology, calibrated redshift distributions, and uncertainties of the final Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (Y6) weak lensing galaxy data, divided into four redshift bins centered at $\langle z \rangle = [0.414, 0.538, 0.846, 1.157]$. We combine independent information from two methods on the full shape of redshift distributions: optical and near-infrared photometry within an improved Self-Organizing Map $p(z)$ (SOMPZ) framework, and cross-correlations with spectroscopic galaxy clustering measurements (WZ), which we demonstrate to be consistent both in terms of the redshift calibration itself and in terms of resulting cosmological constraints within 0.1$σ$. We describe the process used to produce an ensemble of redshift distributions that account for several known sources of uncertainty. Among these, imperfection in the calibration sample due to the lack of faint, representative spectra is the dominant factor. The final uncertainty on mean redshift in each bin is $σ_{\langle z\rangle} = [0.012, 0.008,0.009, 0.024]$. We ensure the robustness of the redshift distributions by leveraging new image simulations and a cross-check with galaxy shape information via the shear ratio (SR) method.

Yin, B. [Duke U.] (ORCID:0009000656049980)↗

Liquid Interfacial Electron Microscopy Identifies Nanogalvanic Corrosion in Pearlitic Steel

The nanoscale mechanisms of localized corrosion in low carbon steels have remained elusive due to the complexity of studying the degradative material behavior at nanoscale solid-liquid interfaces. We identified various steps in the nanogalvanic corrosion processes using in-situ liquid-cell scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) using a microfluidic holder by Hummingbird Scientific. Initial work, performed at low magnification, identified the initiation point on a 1018 low-carbon steel surface. This initiation point was determined to be a triple junction of two ferrite grains bridging a cementite grain in contact with a baseline electrolyte of 6 uM CO2 dissolved in a buffered (2.78 uM Na2SO4) aqueous solution, pH 6.1. The pre-etched low-carbon steel surface was prepared using focused ion beam lift-out procedures to extract a cross-section of the low-carbon steel surface, which then was thinned to about 150 nm and transferred to a SiN membrane microfluidic window. The transfer was made using a lift-out needle to attach the low-carbon steel lamella to the corner of the SiN window, and then Pt/C deposition held the lamella in contact with the window while it was released from the lift out needle. To identify the triple point on the low carbon steel lamella, prior to attachment on the SiN window, the sample was characterized for compositional variations with energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy mapping, grain orientation and phase mapping with precession electron diffraction, and thickness mapping with energy filtered transmission electron microscopy. This pre-characterization prior to the in-situ experiment provided a map of the multiphase and multigrain structure, where the in-situ liquid cell imaging provided a clear understanding of the initiation point on the sample. These data were cross-correlated to paint a holistic picture of the triple junction site, enabling low electron-fluence in-situ snapshot imaging to avoid dominating the native corrosion reactions with effects from the incident electron beam. This initial result identified that localized, nanogalvanic corrosion at the phase interface was the dominant corrosion process in the low-carbon steel, so we next targeted the observation of an array of these nanogalvanic features phase boundaries in a pearlite grain. Near-surface ferrite/cementite phase interfaces that typify pearlitic low-carbon steel were extracted, pre-characterized, and imaged for the in-situ corrosion processes. The sample was a cross-section from a pearlite grain, with alternating ferrite and cementite grains that extended microns down from the pre-etched low-carbon steel pipe surface. After contact with a buffered aqueous solution, the phase boundaries between the ferrite and cementite began to dissolve, with observable material loss and thickness changes in the dark-field and bright-field STEM images. Within minutes, the corrosion front proceeded deeper into the material, claiming a thin layer of ferrite around all exposed phase boundaries before progressing laterally into the ferrite matrix, converting the ferrite to corrosion product normal to each buried cementite grain. Formation of the corrosion product causes a volumetric expansion, creating a lateral wedging force that mechanically ejects the cementite grains from their grooves and leaves behind percolation channels into the steel substructure. Rapid and deleterious, this nanogalvanic corrosion pathway represents an important target for understanding and preventing run-away degradation in this common building material. Observation of this corrosion mechanism was enabled by the combination of pre-characterization using standard structural, grain, and compositional analysis in the TEM, which provides maps for understanding the reaction propagation captured in low-dose, in-situ, liquid-cell STEM.

corrosion↗

Heralded Generation of Correlated Photon Pairs from CdS/CdSe/CdS Quantum Shells

Quantum information processing demands efficient quantum light sources (QLS) capable of producing high-fidelity single photons or entangled photon pairs. Single epitaxial quantum dots (QDs) have long been proven to be efficient sources of deterministic single photons; however, their production via molecular-beam epitaxy presents scalability challenges. Conversely, colloidal semiconductor QDs offer scalable solution processing and tunable photoluminescence, but suffer from broader linewidths and unstable emissions. This leads to spectrally inseparable emission from exciton (X) and biexciton (XX) states, complicating the production of single photons and triggered photon pairs. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that colloidal semiconductor quantum shells (QSs) achieve significant spectral separation (∼75–80 meV) and long temporal stability of X and XX emissive states, enabling the observation of exciton-biexciton bunching in colloidal QDs. Our low-temperature single-particle measurements show cascaded XX-X emission of single photon pairs for over 200 s, with minimal overlap between X and XX features. The X-XX distinguishability allows for an in-depth theoretical characterization of cross-correlation strength, placing it in perspective with photon pairs of epitaxial counterparts. These findings highlight a strong potential of semiconductor quantum shells for applications in quantum information processing.

biexciton↗

Searching for anisotropic cosmic birefringence with polarization data from SPTpol

In this paper, we present a search for anisotropic cosmic birefringence in 500 deg 2 of southern sky observed at 150 GHz with the SPTpol camera on the South Pole Telescope. We reconstruct a map of cosmic polarization rotation anisotropies using higher-order correlations between the observed cosmic microwave background (CMB) E and B fields. We then measure the angular power spectrum of this map, which is found to be consistent with zero. The nondetection is translated into an upper limit on the amplitude of the scale-invariant cosmic rotation power spectrum, L ( L + 1 ) C L α α / 2 π < 0.10 × 10 – 4 rad 2 ( 0.033 deg 2 , 95% C.L.). This upper limit can be used to place constraints on the strength of primordial magnetic fields, B 1 Mpc < 17 nG (95% C.L.), and on the coupling constant of the Chern-Simons electromagnetic term g a γ < 4.0 × 10 – 2 / H I (95% C.L.), where H I is the inflationary Hubble scale. For the first time, we also cross-correlate the CMB temperature fluctuations with the reconstructed rotation angle map, a signal expected to be nonvanishing in certain theoretical scenarios, and find no detectable signal. We perform a suite of systematics and consistency checks and find no evidence for contamination.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Nuclear Uncertainties Associated with the Nucleosynthesis in Ejecta of a Black Hole Accretion Disk

Abstract The simulation of heavy element nucleosynthesis requires input from yet-to-be-measured nuclear properties. The uncertainty in the values of these off-stability nuclear properties propagates to uncertainties in the predictions of elemental and isotopic abundances. However, for any given astrophysical explosion, there are many different trajectories, i.e., temperature and density histories, experienced by outflowing material, and thus different nuclear properties can come into play. We consider combined nucleosynthesis results from 460,000 trajectories from a black hole accretion disk and find the spread in elemental predictions due solely to unknown nuclear properties to be a factor of a few. We analyze this relative spread in model predictions due to nuclear variations and conclude that the uncertainties can be attributed to a combination of properties in a given region of the abundance pattern. We calculate a cross-correlation between mass changes and abundance changes to show how variations among the properties of participating nuclei may be explored. Our results provide further impetus for measurements of multiple quantities on individual short-lived neutron-rich isotopes at modern experimental facilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Great Markarian 421 Flare of 2010 February: Multiwavelength Variability and Correlation Studies

We report on variability and correlation studies using multiwavelength observations of the blazar Mrk 421 during the month of February, 2010 when an extraordinary flare reaching a level of ~27 Crab Units above 1 TeV was measured in very-highenergy (VHE) γ-rays with the VERITAS observatory. This is the highest flux state for Mrk 421 ever observed in VHE γ-rays. Data are analyzed from a coordinated campaign across multiple instruments including VHE γ-ray (VERITAS, MAGIC), high-energy (HE) γ-ray (Fermi-LAT), X-ray (Swift, RXTE, MAXI), optical (including the GASP-WEBT collaboration and polarization data) and radio (Mets¨ahovi, OVRO, UMRAO). Light curves are produced spanning multiple days before and after the peak of the VHE flare, including over several flare ‘decline’ epochs. The main flare statistics allow 2-minute time bins to be constructed in both the VHE and optical bands enabling a cross-correlation analysis that shows evidence for an optical lag of ~25–55 minutes, the first time-lagged correlation between these bands reported on such short timescales. Limits on the Doppler factor (δ & 33) and the size of the emission region (δ -1RB . 3.8 × 10 13 cm) are obtained from the fast variability observed by VERITAS during the main flare. Analysis of 10-minute-binned VHE and X-ray data over the decline epochs shows an extraordinary range of behavior in the flux-flux relationship: from linear to quadratic to lack of correlation to anti-correlation. Taken together, these detailed observations of an unprecedented flare seen in Mrk 421 are difficult to explain by the classic single-zone synchrotron self-Compton model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cosmic shear cosmology beyond two-point statistics: a combined peak count and correlation function analysis of DES-Y1

ABSTRACT We constrain cosmological parameters from a joint cosmic shear analysis of peak-counts and the two-point shear correlation functions, as measured from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y1). We find the structure growth parameter $S_8\equiv \sigma _8\sqrt{\Omega _{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.766^{+0.033}_{-0.038}$ which, at 4.8 per cent precision, provides one of the tightest constraints on S8 from the DES-Y1 weak lensing data. In our simulation-based method we determine the expected DES-Y1 peak-count signal for a range of cosmologies sampled in four w cold dark matter parameters (Ωm, σ8, h, w0). We also determine the joint covariance matrix with over 1000 realizations at our fiducial cosmology. With mock DES-Y1 data we calibrate the impact of photometric redshift and shear calibration uncertainty on the peak-count, marginalizing over these uncertainties in our cosmological analysis. Using dedicated training samples we show that our measurements are unaffected by mass resolution limits in the simulation, and that our constraints are robust against uncertainty in the effect of baryon feedback. Accurate modelling for the impact of intrinsic alignments on the tomographic peak-count remains a challenge, currently limiting our exploitation of cross-correlated peak counts between high and low redshift bins. We demonstrate that once calibrated, a fully tomographic joint peak-count and correlation functions analysis has the potential to reach a 3 per cent precision on S8 for DES-Y1. Our methodology can be adopted to model any statistic that is sensitive to the non-Gaussian information encoded in the shear field. In order to accelerate the development of these beyond-two-point cosmic shear studies, our simulations are made available to the community upon request.

Harnois-Déraps, Joachim↗

Multimodal Nanoscale Tomographic Imaging for Battery Electrodes

Accurate representations of the 3D structure within a lithium-ion battery are key to understanding performance limitations. However, obtaining exact reconstructions of electrodes, where the active particles, the carbon black and polymeric binder domain, and the pore space are visualized is challenging. In this work, it is shown that multimodal imaging can be used to overcome this challenge. High-resolution ptychographic X-ray computed tomography are combined with lower resolution but higher contrast transmission X-ray tomographic microscopy to obtain 3D reconstructions of pristine and cycled graphite-silicon composite electrodes. This cross-correlation enables quantitative analysis of the surface of active particles, including the heterogeneity of carbon-black and binder domain and solid-electrolyte interphase coverage. Capturing the active particles as well as the carbon black-binder domain allows using these segmented structures for electrochemical simulations to highlight the influence of the particle embedding on local state of charge heterogeneities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Strongly Anharmonic Phonons and Their Role in Superionic Diffusion and Ultralow Thermal Conductivity of Cu 7 PSe 6

We report the quest for advanced superionic materials requires understanding their complex atomic dynamics, but detailed studies of the interplay between lattice vibrations and ionic diffusion remain scarce. Here inelastic and quasielastic neutron scattering measurements in the superionic argyrodite Cu 7 PSe 6 are reported, combined with molecular dynamics (MD) based on ab initio and machine-learned potentials, providing critical insights into the atomistic mechanisms underlying fast ion conduction. The results reveal how long-range Cu diffusion is limited by intercluster hopping, controlled by selective anharmonic phonons of the crystalline framework. Further, the Green–Kubo simulations reproduce the ultralow lattice thermal conductivity and identify contributions from mobile ions, phonons, and their cross-correlations. The mode resolved analysis shows that the thermal conductivity is dominated by low-energy acoustic phonon modes of the overall crystal framework. The analysis of mode-resolved spectral functions further show that vibrational modes with significant Cu contributions are strongly damped, corresponding to the breakdown of associated phonon quasiparticles. These results highlight the importance of strongly anharmonic effects in superionic systems, in which the traditional quasiharmonic phonon picture is insufficient, and pave the way toward combining machine-learning accelerated simulations with neutron scattering experiments to rationalize the complex atomic dynamics underlying ionic and thermal transport.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantifying the Long‐Range Coupling of Electronic Properties in Proteins with ab initio Molecular Dynamics**

Abstract The delicate interplay of covalent and non‐covalent interactions in proteins is inherently quantum mechanical and highly dynamic in nature. To directly interrogate the evolving nature of the electronic structure of proteins, we carry out 100‐ps‐scale ab initio molecular dynamics simulations of three representative small proteins with range‐separated hybrid density functional theory. We quantify the nature and length‐scale of the coupling of residue‐specific charge probability distributions in these proteins. While some nonpolar residues exhibit expectedly narrow charge distributions, most polar and charged residues exhibit broad, multimodal distributions. Even for nonpolar residues, we observe sequence‐specific deviations corresponding to charge accumulation or depletion that would be challenging to capture in a fixed charge force field. We quantify the effect of residue‐residue interactions on charge distributions first with linear cross‐correlations. We then show how additional insight can be gained from evaluating the mutual information of charge distributions. We show that a significant number of residues couple most strongly with residues that are distant in both sequence and space over a range of secondary structures including α‐helical, β‐sheet, disulfide bridging, and lasso motifs. The mutual information analysis is necessary to capture coupling between some polar and charged residues that would be otherwise missed.

Yang, Zhongyue↗

A priori analysis on deep learning of subgrid-scale parameterizations for Kraichnan turbulence

In the present study, we investigate different data-driven parameterizations for large eddy simulation of two-dimensional turbulence in the a priori settings. These models utilize resolved flow field variables on the coarser grid to estimate the subgrid-scale stresses. We use data-driven closure models based on localized learning that employs a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network with point-to-point mapping and neighboring stencil data mapping, and convolutional neural network fed by data snapshots of the whole domain. The performance of these data-driven closure models is measured through a probability density function and is compared with the dynamic Smagorinksy model (DSM). The quantitative performance is evaluated using the cross-correlation coefficient between the true and predicted stresses. We analyze different frameworks in terms of the amount of training data, selection of input and output features, their characteristics in modeling with accuracy, and training and deployment computational time. We also demonstrate computational gain that can be achieved using the intelligent eddy viscosity model that learns eddy viscosity computed by the DSM instead of subgrid-scale stresses. Here, we detail the hyperparameters optimization of these models using the grid search algorithm.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hybrid geological modeling: Combining machine learning and multiple-point statistics

Accurately modeling and constructing a geologically realistic subsurface model remains an outstanding problem as the morphology controls the flow behaviors. Particularly, one of the pattern-based methods, namely cross-correlation based simulation, has been proved to be an effective way to reconstruct a realistic model, at both small and large scales. However, conditioning to point data in the large-scale problems is still a crucial issue in these algorithms, since there is always a trade-off between the quality of the realizations and the degree of point data reproduction. Specifically, it is not practical to build a training image (TI) which includes all the possibilities and variabilities. Therefore, finding a pattern that can represent the point data and, at the same time, preserving the connectivities is difficult. This leads to producing highly-connected realizations with a significant mismatch or poor models with a reasonable degree of point data reproduction. To accurately reproduce the densely distributed hard data, pixel-based methods can also produce some unrealistic artifacts around the hard data. In this paper, to overcome this challenge, however, we use pattern-based methods as they often produce more disconnected geobodies when dealing with dense hard data, and proposed a hybrid algorithm using the pattern-based methods and convolutional neural network (CNN). The trained CNN model is utilized to improve the quality of conditioning to point data for the original realizations generated by the pattern-based algorithm. As such, the mismatch locations are identified, and the same regions are used in the training of CNN to mimic the procedure through which a missing region can be filled. To evaluate the performance of the proposed hybrid algorithm, it is tested on cases with different dimensions and different numbers of facies. Then, the newly improved realizations are compared with the initial realizations generated by the pattern-based algorithm. The comparison is also conducted by the flow simulation test. And it indicates that the proposed hybrid algorithm can better reproduce the point data, while the connectivities are better preserved.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Experimental measurements of fluid flow in an 84-pin hexagonal rod bundle with spacer grid for a gas-cooled fast modular reactor

A 50 MW e helium-cooled fast modular reactor (FMR) is under development, and as part of the Department of Energy Integrated Research Project (IRP), Texas A&M University is conducting the thermal-hydraulic characterization of its baseline core configuration. Here, we experimentally investigated the axial and cross flow fields characteristics in the hexagonal fuel rod bundle composed of 84 rods, a central rod, and spacer grids at a Reynolds number of 12,000. A fully transparent experimental facility resembling of one unit of the fuel assembly was constructed. Time-resolved particle image velocimetry (TR-PIV) measurements were performed to characterize hydraulic behavior downstream the spacer grid. Velocity measurements were conducted in the axial and radial direction of the rod bundle. From the PIV velocity vector fields, the full-field flow statistics were computed for the mean velocity, vorticity, and Reynolds stresses. An analysis of the energy decay downstream of the spacer grid was conducted with calculations of secondary-flow intensities, turbulent kinetic energy, power spectrum, and spatial-temporal velocity cross correlations. The vorticity field was obtained and pairs of counter-rotating vortexes were identified using a 3D reconstruction of several measurement planes. The data from this experimental campaign will be used to validate numerical models based on Computational Fluid Dynamics and other codes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Multi-fidelity Bayesian neural networks: Algorithms and applications

Here we propose a new class of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that can be trained using noisy data of variable fidelity, and we apply them to learn function approximations as well as to solve inverse problems based on partial differential equations (PDEs). These multi-fidelity BNNs consist of three neural networks: The first is a fully connected neural network, which is trained following the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) method to fit the low-fidelity data; the second is a Bayesian neural network employed to capture the cross-correlation with uncertainty quantification between the low- and high-fidelity data; and the last one is the physics-informed neural network, which encodes the physical laws described by PDEs. For the training of the last two neural networks, we first employ the mean-field variational inference (VI) to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to obtain informative prior distributions for the hyperparameters in the BNNs, and subsequently we use the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate accurately the posterior distributions for the corresponding hyperparameters. We demonstrate the accuracy of the present method using synthetic data as well as real measurements. Specifically, we first approximate a one- and four-dimensional function, and then infer the reaction rates in one- and two-dimensional diffusion-reaction systems. Moreover, we infer the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays using satellite images and in-situ measurements. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the present method can capture both linear and nonlinear correlation between the low- and high-fidelity data adaptively, identify unknown parameters in PDEs, and quantify uncertainties in predictions, given a few scattered noisy high-fidelity data. Finally, we demonstrate that we can effectively and efficiently reduce the uncertainties and hence enhance the prediction accuracy with an active learning approach, using as examples a specific one-dimensional function approximation and an inverse PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multivariate degradation modeling using generalized cauchy process and application in life prediction of dye-sensitized solar cells

Recently, the Generalized Cauchy (GC) process has been applied to capture a Long Memory (LM) phenomenon in product degradation modeling and life prediction. Compared with the traditional fractional Brownian motion that captures the LM using a single Hurst parameter, the GC process has two free parameters (Hurst and fractal dimension parameters) that flexibly capture both global LM and local irregularity. However, all existing GC-based degradation models are for a single Degradation Characteristic (DC). In this article, motivated by a real degradation problem of dye-sensitized solar cells that jointly exhibits multiple DCs, global LM, local irregularity and DC-wise cross-correlation, we propose a novel GC-based Multivariate Degradation Model (GC-MDM) to simultaneously capture the aforementioned effects. A maximum likelihood estimation approach is developed to estimate parameters of the GC-MDM. Subsequently, product life prediction based on the GC-MDM is developed. The proposed GC-MDM is validated through a simulation study and a physical experiment of dye-sensitized solar cells. Furthermore, results show that the proposed GC-MDM fundamentally improves the life prediction accuracy in comparison with conventional degradation models which significantly misestimate the uncertainty of product life.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗