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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Optimal Operation of Residential High Performance Water Heater for Reduction of Electricity Cost and Peak Demand Through Field Validation

Water heating accounts for about 18% of a typical US home’s energy use. Modern water heaters have enabled control options through APIs, offering customers the opportunity to reduce their energy cost and peak demand by dynamically adjusting settings. A water heater’s capacity to store energy using its storage tank makes it an asset for peak demand reduction and energy cost savings. For this reason, a mixed-integer linear programming model is proposed to minimize the energy cost of a high-performance water heater while also reducing the peak demand of the residential household under a time-of-use utility rate by dynamically changing the water heater’s running mode. Specifically, a multi-objective optimization model is formulated to determine the mode settings of the water heater considering hot water use, time-of-use rate, and peak demand limit of the residential household. The mode settings are associated with different dead bands of water temperature for triggering on/off action of the heat pump and heating element. A 66-gal hybrid electric high performance water heater was used for numerical simulation and practical experiments. The simulation results were well aligned with measurements of practical experiments, validating the soundness of the thermodynamic model. In addition, reductions of energy cost, enabling affordability, and reducing peak demand are demonstrated. The research team also developed a software framework with dashboards to automatically and continuously monitor and manage devices.

Liu, Guodong [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000213498608)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the effect of multiple load flexibility strategies on commercial building electricity demand and services via surrogate modeling

The expansion of commercial building demand response as a demand-side management resource for the electric grid necessitates new decision support resources for customers seeking to assess the benefit–risk tradeoffs of possible strategies for energy flexible building operations. To address this need, we, in this study, develop surrogate models that predict the impacts of several load flexibility strategies on commercial building electricity demand and indoor temperature, focusing on offices and retail buildings at multiple scales. The surrogate models are fit to a synthetic database generated via whole building simulations, which establish the relationships between the key operational features of a given strategy and potential changes in building demand and temperature across a variety of contexts. The surrogate models are translated to a Bayesian framework to allow straightforward communication of uncertainty and parameter updating given new evidence. We find strong predictive performance across the suite of models, underscoring the usefulness of the approach in guiding decisions about implementing load flexibility strategies under a particular set of operational and environmental conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

O’Hare Airport Short-Term Ground Transportation Modal Demand Forecast Using Gaussian Processes

Here, the principal objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of ground transportation airport demand and provide demand forecast to inform planning capability and explore alternatives for investments to accommodate airport growth. Because of its good adaptability and strong generalization ability for dealing with high-dimensional input, small-sample, and nonlinear spatial data, Gaussian process (GP) regression is used to provide forecast estimates using data from transportation network company (TNC) trips and urban rail passengers at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. TNC airport trips differ significantly, with three times more distance, more than twice the travel time, and half of the share requests compared with nonairport trips. This highlights the need for separate demand models. Hourly analysis of the rail service indicates that this is likely heavily used by airport workers, whereas TNC services focus on travelers because of variations in the peak demand hours. Heteroscedastic GP regression is implemented because of differences in trip variance between night and day hours. Estimates are given for weekdays and weekend trips, and the 95% confidence intervals are calculated. The introduction of flight schedule information into the models shows marginal improvements in their performance. However, fitting a GP regression becomes computationally expensive with increased sample size and the introduction of spatial components. Transportation planners and policymakers can use the results and methods implemented in this study to optimize transportation assets and provide long-range simulations of the current and future conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Demand Response Availability Profiles for California in the Year 2020

Demand response (DR) is being considered as a valuable resource for keeping the electrical grid stable and efficient, and deferring upgrades to generation, transmission, and distribution systems. However, simulations to determine how much infrastructure upgrades can be deferred are necessary in order to plan optimally. Production cost modeling is a technique, which simulates the dispatch of generators to meet demand and reserves in each hour of the year, at minimal cost. By integrating demand response resources into a production cost model (PCM), their value to the grid can be estimated and used to inform operations and infrastructure planning. DR availability profiles and constraints for 13 end-uses in California for the year 2020 were developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and integrated into a production cost model by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), for the California Energy Commission’s Value of Energy Storage and Demand Response for Renewable Integration in California Study. This report summarizes the process for developing the DR availability profiles for California, and their aggregate capabilities. While LBNL provided potential DR hourly profiles for regulation product in the ancillary services market and five-minute load following product in the energy market for LLNL’s study, additional results in contingency reserves and an assumed flexible product are also defined. These additional products are included in the analysis for managing high ramps associated with renewable generation and capacity products and they are also presented in this report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agent-based simulations of shared automated vehicle operations: reflecting travel-party size, season and day-of-week demand variations

Here, this paper explores the effects of day of week and season of year demand variations for shared rides, along with realistic travel party sizes, on shared autonomous vehicle (SAV) services across the Austin, Texas region. Using the agent-based POLARIS program, synthetic person-trips that reflect travel-party size (from one to four persons) and demand variations over days and months, as evident in the National Household Travel Survey data were simulated in each scenario over a 24 h travel day. Results show that realistic party sizes can bring considerable changes to SAV fleet performance, including up to 8.5% higher service rates (number of requests accepted within 15 min), 5 min shorter journey times (wait time + travel time), 28% higher vehicle occupancies on weekends, and roughly 4% lower empty fleet VMT. Weekend travel is most impacted by season of year, with weekday travel patterns looking more uniform (thanks to work and school trips). Various performance metrics for the Austin network, like total and empty VMT, change by up to 30% when considering realistic variations in party size and time of year. This paper underscores the value of recognizing day-to-day and month-to-month variations in travel demand, and the importance of agent-based model equations to reflect travel-party size. Such realism can help quantify SAV seat occupancies more accurately, highlighting the importance of shared mobility. However, it also creates demand and supply issues for operators that now need more information on party size to manage dynamic ride-sharing, or those that may wish to shift their fleet vehicles to other regions for special events to protect profits while offering reasonable wait times to customers throughout the year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

An MILP framework for optimizing demand response operation of air separation units

Renewable electricity generation and consumer demand are desynchronized in time, posing a challenge for grid operators. Industrial demand response (DR), has emerged as a strong candidate for mitigating demand variability. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of DR to an air separation unit (ASU), a chemical process that consumes significant amounts of electricity. We develop a novel optimal production scheduling framework that accounts for day-ahead electricity prices to modulate the grid load presented by the plant. Our framework accounts for the dynamics of the plant using a novel dynamic modeling framework. Further, we present a new decomposition scheme that allows us to solve the corresponding optimization problem in a matter of minutes. Extensive simulation results show significant reductions in operating costs (that benefit the plant) and reductions in peak power demand (which benefits the grid).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic approach for capacity credit evaluation of demand response considering both exogenous and endogenous uncertainties

As a featured smart-grid technology, demand response (DR) provides utility companies with unprecedented flexibility to improve the reliability of electricity service in future power systems. However, due to the uncertainties arising from the demand side, the extent to which DR can be utilized for capacity support poses a major question to the utilities. To address this issue, this paper proposes a new methodological framework to assess the potential reliability value of DR in smart grids. The framework is established on the concept of capacity credit (CC), and it accommodates different types of uncertainties (i.e., probabilistic and possibilistic) accrued from physical and anthropogenic factors in DR programs. The capability of DR during operation is considered as a synthesized result of multiple facets, i.e., users' load characteristics, participation levels, and load recoveries, and different models are developed to represent each component. To characterize the stochastic nature of demand responsiveness, the fuzzy theory is introduced, and possibilistic models are proposed to describe the human-related uncertainties under incomplete information. In addition, considering that in reality, DR operation could affect the comfort of customers, the dynamics of demand-side participation have also been incorporated in our study, in which two utility-based indices are defined to quantify the effect of such interdependency. Using a probabilistic propagation technique, the different types of uncertainties involved can be normalized and systematically addressed under the same framework. Then, the relevant models can be applied to the CC evaluation procedures, wherein two dispatching schemes (i.e., reliability-driven and coordinated management) are considered to study the effect of DR operation on its CC. The proposed methodology is tested on a modified RTS system, and the obtained results confirm its effectiveness.

capacity credit↗
DOE OSTI2023

What is the long-term demand for liquid hydrocarbon fuels and feedstocks?

Liquid hydrocarbons made from crude oil serve many functions: (1) a dense, easy-to-store, easy-to-transport energy source, (2) a method for daily-to-seasonal energy storage, (3) a chemical feedstock, (4) a chemical reducing agent and (5) a method to enhance high-temperature heat transfer in many furnaces and industrial processes. Liquid hydrocarbons can be produced and used without increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels if made from non-fossil feedstocks such as carbon dioxide or biomass. Understanding future liquid hydrocarbon demand is the starting point in assessing the viability of such options. Our assessment is that U.S. demand for liquid hydrocarbons is unlikely to go below the equivalent of 10 million barrels per day of crude oil but could be as high as 20 million barrels per day. The costs to replace liquid hydrocarbons increases rapidly at lower liquid hydrocarbon consumption rates. Hydrocarbon biofuels from cellulosic feedstocks can meet such demands if produced with large external inputs of heat and hydrogen. Options based on more limited feedstocks (starches, plant oils, sugars, etc.) can’t meet such demands.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing heat pump water heater performance with embedded phase change materials thermal energy storage: First hour rating improvement and demand response operation

The increasing global emphasis on energy efficiency and sustainability has put heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) in the spotlight as an energy-efficient alternative to traditional water heating systems. However, their widespread adoption is limited by challenges such as insufficient First Hour Rating (FHR), suboptimal control mechanisms, and limited flexibility for demand response operations. Here, to address these limitations, this study proposes an innovative HPWH system integrated with embedded phase change material (PCM)-based thermal energy storage (TES). The research introduces a novel design and control strategy that leverages optimized PCM integration to enhance thermal storage capacity, improve hot water delivery during peak demand, and increase load-shifting potential. A combination of system modeling, performance simulation, and demand response control strategy evaluation was employed to quantify the benefits of PCM integration. Results demonstrate that the proposed PCM-TES HPWH system significantly enhances FHR, with an optimal 7.0 lb. of PCM increasing FHR by over 26 %—from 62 to 78 gal—for a standard 50-gal HPWH. Additionally, under advanced demand response operation using a preheat strategy, the system reduces the percentage of control temperature out-of-band time from 65 % (conventional HPWH) to just 11.6 %, enabling a more stable and efficient hot water supply. This research contributes a novel PCM-embedded HPWH design and control framework that addresses both performance and grid-interactivity challenges. The findings offer a viable pathway to enhancing the operational efficiency, flexibility, and grid responsiveness of residential water heating systems.

Demand response control↗
DOE OSTI2016

Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncology in the United States: Updated Projections for 2015 to 2025

Purpose: Prior studies have forecasted demand for radiation therapy to grow 10 times faster than the supply between 2010 and 2020. We updated these projections for 2015 to 2025 to determine whether this imbalance persists and to assess the accuracy of prior projections. Methods and Materials: The demand for radiation therapy between 2015 and 2025 was estimated by combining current radiation utilization rates determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data with population projections provided by the US Census Bureau. The supply of radiation oncologists was forecast by using workforce demographics and full-time equivalent (FTE) status provided by the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO), current resident class sizes, and expected survival per life tables from the US Centers for Disease Control. Results: Between 2015 and 2025, the annual total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 19%, from 490,000 to 580,000. Assuming a graduating resident class size of 200, the number of FTE physicians is expected to increase by 27%, from 3903 to 4965. In comparison with prior projections, the new projected demand for radiation therapy in 2020 dropped by 24,000 cases (a 4% relative decline). This decrease is attributable to an overall reduction in the use of radiation to treat cancer, from 28% of all newly diagnosed cancers in the prior projections down to 26% for the new projections. By contrast, the new projected supply of radiation oncologists in 2020 increased by 275 FTEs in comparison with the prior projection for 2020 (a 7% relative increase), attributable to rising residency class sizes. Conclusion: The supply of radiation oncologists is expected to grow more quickly than the demand for radiation therapy from 2015 to 2025. Further research is needed to determine whether this is an appropriate correction or will result in excess capacity.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change

Future energy demand is likely to increase due to climate change, but the magnitude depends on many interacting sources of uncertainty. We combine econometrically estimated responses of energy use to income, hot and cold days with future projections of spatial population and national income under five socioeconomic scenarios and temperature increases around 2050 for two emission scenarios simulated by 21 Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we show that, across 210 realizations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios, vigorous (moderate) warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation around 2050 by 25–58% (11–27%), on top of a factor 1.7–2.8 increase above present-day due to socioeconomic developments. We find broad agreement among ESMs that energy demand rises by more than 25% in the tropics and southern regions of the USA, Europe and China. Socioeconomic scenarios vary widely in the number of people in low-income countries exposed to increases in energy demand.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated Electric Vehicle Fleet Operations for On-Demand Service: Challenges and Opportunities

Automated/autonomous vehicle fleet operations within automated mobility districts have been studied over the past five years by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, a US Department of Energy federally funded research and development center. This paper extends the analysis in this third phase of research underway to include considerations for electric vehicle operations and charging within a fleet of right-sized automated vehicles providing on-demand public mobility services. The current focus of research is on the operational complexities and associated challenges for automated/autonomous vehicles employing electric drivetrains and the resultant need for an efficient battery charging process while vehicles are operating in an "on-demand" mode of service. The blossoming of microtransit with shared-ride and point-to-point dispatching of each vehicle instills complex operations, with multiple mobility-on-demand transit operating sites being deployed, studied, and analyzed across North America. As a starting point, the authors' experience over the past 20 years with the analysis of automated transit network systems operating on and within dedicated and protected transitways provides initial insights into the system-level operational implications for maintaining a sufficient battery charge for a fleet of automated vehicles. Lessons learned through the prior analyses of automated transit network systems operating in on-demand service are identified, along with the capital cost implications for the requisite operating fleet size and charging station infrastructure for various approaches. These costs are summarized in juxtaposition with the benefits of realizing the higher goals of reducing environmental impacts and energy use within automated mobility districts as automated/autonomous vehicle technology matures. Finally, the discussion addresses key aspects of battery-electric propulsion for managed fleets in fully automated operation that will be studied as the third phase of research continues.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Optimization-Based Planning Tool for On-Demand Mobility Service Operations

Regions worldwide are adopting and exploring low-speed automated electric shuttle (AES) service as an on-demand shared mobility service in dense geofenced urban areas. Building on this concept, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently developed the Automated Mobility District (AMD) toolkit. The AMD toolkit—comprising of a travel micro-simulation model and an energy estimation model—estimates the mobility and energy impacts of a given shuttle configuration within an AMD. Early-stage AMD deployments need to find optimal operational configurations that include: (a) passenger capacity of an AES, (b) time-dependent routes, and (c) fleet size (AES units) to satisfy the demand for the region. This research extends the AMD toolkit functionality by developing an optimization-based planning module that will assist in the operations of AES units. We developed a constrained mixed-integer program accounting for passenger waiting time, battery range, and passenger capacity of AES units. For scalability, we demonstrated the Tabu search-based solution technique for a real-world network—a proposed AMD deployment in Greenville, South Carolina, USA. Compared to rule-based operations, our developed solution yields higher travel time and energy savings for the network at different demand levels. The sensitivity analyses for waiting time thresholds indicate nonlinearity in the system performance, underscoring the need to meet shared-use mobility user-level expectations. The developed optimization framework can be adapted and extended to accommodate different categories of shared-use on-demand mobility services.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tri-Level Scheduling Model Considering Residential Demand Flexibility of Aggregated HVACs and EVs Under Distribution LMP

Residential loads, especially heating, ventilation and air conditioners (HVACs) and electric vehicles (EVs), have great potentials to provide demand flexibility which is an attribute of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB). Under this new paradigm, first, EV and HVAC aggregator models are developed in this paper to represent the fleet of GEBs, in which the aggregated parameters are obtained based on a new approach of data generation and least squares parameter estimation (DG-LSPE), which can deal with heterogeneous HVACs. Then, a tri-level bidding and dispatching framework is established based on competitive distribution operation with distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). Furthermore, the first two levels form a bilevel model to optimize the aggregators’ payment and to represent the interdependency between load aggregators and the distribution system operator (DSO) using DLMP, and the third level is to dispatch the optimal load aggregation to all residents by the proposed priority list-based demand dispatching algorithm. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 33-Bus system illustrate three main technical reasons of payment reduction due to demand flexibility: load shift, DLMP step changes, and power losses. They can be used as general guidelines for better decision-making for future planning and operation of demand response programs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

An On-Demand Electric Transit Case Study of New Rochelle, New York

Here, this article characterizes the performance and ridership patterns of an on-demand transit (ODT) service utilizing lightweight electric vehicles (EVs) in New Rochelle, New York. Ridership sociodemographics, travel patterns (both temporal and spatiotemporal), and energy use from the service were explored using travel and survey data from September 2019 through December 2023. The ODT service was found to be used more by women (nearly 60%) and younger demographics (>65% under the age of 42), with peak use in the middle of the day and a grocery store as a top origin and destination. The service was utilized primarily for short trips (86% under 2 mi), with approximately one-third of riders using the ODT service to connect to a train or bus. The costs associated with fueling/charging were compared for different types of fleet vehicles, and the small, right-sized EVs were found to have annual charging costs that were roughly half of the refueling costs for conventional hybrid vans, and 24 times lower than a fleet of diesel buses. Evaluating the vehicle fleet and mapping current socio-spatial travel demand can inform system performance, guide service area development, and support future planning such as expansion to nearby communities and transit hubs. The findings in this case study suggest that on-demand electric transit may be a significant and growing space for advancing highly valued public mobility services. Public transport interventions that consider right-sized, electric, on-demand vehicles can help improve mobility access and reduce energy use and refueling costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tethys: A Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Global Water Demand

Humans use water for many important tasks, such as drinking, growing food, and cooling power plants. Since future water demands depend on complex global interactions between economic sectors (e.g., demand for wheat in one country causing demand for water to grow that wheat in another country), it is often modeled at coarse spatial and temporal scales as part of models that account for complex, multi-sector system dynamics. However, models that project future water availability typically simulate physical processes at much finer scales. Tethys enables integration between these kinds of models by downscaling region-scale water demand projections using sector-specific proxies and formulas.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study

Demand response and energy storage resources present potentially important sources of bulk power system services that can aid in integrating variable renewable generation. While renewable integration studies have evaluated many of the challenges associated with deploying large amounts of variable wind and solar generation technologies, integration analyses have not yet fully incorporated demand response and energy storage resources. This report represents an initial effort in analyzing the potential integration value of demand response and energy storage, focusing on the western United States. It evaluates two major aspects of increased deployment of demand response and energy storage: (1) Their operational value in providing bulk power system services and (2) Market and regulatory issues, including potential barriers to deployment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Test Results for Caustic Demand Measurements on Tank 241-AX-101 and Tank 241-AX-103 Archive Samples

Caustic demand testing is used to determine the necessary amount of caustic required to neutralize species present in the Hanford tank waste and obtain a target molarity of free hydroxide for tank corrosion control. The presence and quantity of hydroxide-consuming analytes are just as important in determining the caustic demand as is the amount of free hydroxide present. No single data point can accurately predict whether a satisfactory hydroxide level is being met, as it is dependent on multiple factors (e.g., free hydroxide, buffers, amphoteric metal hydroxides, bicarbonate, etc.). This enclosure contains the caustic demand, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), polarized light microscopy (PLM), and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis for the tank 241-AX-101 (AX-101) and 241-AX-103 (AX-103) samples. The work was completed to fulfill a customer request outlined in the test plan, WRPS-1505529, “Test Plan and Procedure for Caustic Demand Testing on Tank 241-AX-101 and Tank 241-AX-103 Archive Samples.” The work results will provide a baseline to support planned retrieval of AX-101 and AX-103.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗