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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15

Transfer learning nonlinear plasma dynamic transitions in low dimensional embeddings via deep neural networks

Deep learning algorithms provide a new paradigm to study high-dimensional dynamical behaviors, such as those in fusion plasma systems. Development of novel, data-driven model reduction methods, coupled with detection of abnormal modes with plasma physics, opens a unique opportunity to identify plasma instabilities through automated construction of parsimonious models that can be tuned to balance accuracy and cost. Our fusion transfer learning (FTL) model demonstrates success in rapidly reconstructing nonlinear kink mode structures by learning from a limited amount of nonlinear simulation data. The knowledge transfer process leverages a pre-trained neural encoder–decoder network, initially trained on linear simulations, to effectively capture nonlinear dynamics. The low-dimensional embeddings extract the coherent structures of interest, while preserving the inherent dynamics of the complex system. Experimental results highlight FTL’s capacity to capture transitional behaviors and dynamical features in plasma dynamics—a task often challenging for conventional methods. The model developed in this study is generalizable and can be extended broadly through transfer learning to address various magnetohydrodynamics modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Power System Feature-Based Event Classification by Means of Multiple PMU Data

Abstract—Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) provide time synchronized measurements across the power grid, enabling data driven event detection and classification for enhanced system monitoring and situational awareness. However, variations in event duration, spatial extent, and severity, along with coincident events, pose challenges for conventional classification models that require fixed-size inputs. This paper presents a feature-based framework that aggregates diverse attributes from all available PMUs for each event into a fixed-length vector, facilitating the application of standard machine learning classifiers, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and Multilayer Perceptron. A probabilistic post-processing scheme is further introduced to enable multi-label classification in the presence of overlapping events. Experiments using real-world PMU data demonstrate that the Random Forest model achieves 95% accuracy, while the proposed post-processing method yields an additional 3% improvement.

Nematirad, Reza↗

Incorporation of market signals for the optimal design of post combustion carbon capture systems

Recent studies have shown that fossil generators equipped with post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) systems are needed to reduce the cost of deep decarbonization. Such generators need to be flexible and responsive to grid conditions, particularly in a high variable renewable energy (VRE) environment. In this work, we evaluate the net present value (NPV) of retrofitting an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) unit with a flexible PCC system while incorporating market signals from a high VRE grid. We use our industrial partner’s NGCC configuration as representative of existing NGCC units and Svante’s rapid-temperature swing adsorption (TSA) for PCC. Because of its ability to rapidly startup/shutdown and ramp-up/ramp-down, the chosen capture technology is very attractive for load-following operations. For a given set of market signals, we formulate a two-stage stochastic multi-period optimization problem, under the price-taker assumption, to simultaneously optimize the design of the capture system and operation of the entire plant. Rigorous models for the NGCC unit, PCC system, and compression system are developed using commercial process simulators and validated with either plant or vendor data. For computational tractability, we develop surrogate/reduced-order models for use in the optimization problem. The surrogate model for the NGCC plant is constructed by linearizing the rigorous dynamic model at 75% load, while data-driven nonlinear surrogate models for the capture and compression systems are constructed using simulation data from the rigorous models. The optimization problem, formulated as a mixed integer bilinear program, is implemented in the IDAES® integrated platform and solved to global optimality using Gurobi 9.5. Using this formulation, we determine the profitability of retrofitting an existing NGCC unit with the chosen capture system for multiple regions in the U.S. under two scenarios with different carbon prices. Importantly, the results show that the optimal decision strongly depends on the region and on the carbon price, thereby demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of market signals in the design process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Classification and regression models of audio and vibration signals for machine state monitoring in precision machining systems

Here we present a data-driven method for monitoring machine status in manufacturing processes. Audio and vibration data from precision machining are used for inference in two operating scenarios: (a) variable machine health states (anomaly detection); and (b) settings of machine operation (state estimation). Audio and vibration signals are first processed through Fast Fourier Transform and Principal Component Analysis to extract transformed and informative features. These features are then used in the training of classification and regression models for machine state monitoring. Specifically, three classifiers (K-nearest neighbors, convolutional neural networks and support vector machines) and two regressors (support vector regression and neural network regression) were explored, in terms of their accuracy in machine state prediction. It is shown that the audio and vibration signals are sufficiently rich in information about the machine that 100% state classification accuracy could be accomplished. Data fusion was also explored, showing overall superior accuracy of data-driven regression models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probabilistic Physics-Informed Graph Convolutional Network for Active Distribution System Voltage Prediction

Here this letter proposes a novel data-driven probabilistic physics-informed graph convolutional network (GCN) for active distribution system voltage prediction with PVs and EVs. It leverages both measurements and network topology to accurately and efficiently predict node voltages without the need for an accurate distribution system power flow model. The dropout-enabled Bayesian inference is developed to achieve uncertainty quantification of the voltage prediction. Thanks to the network model embedding, it also has robustness against topology changes, a key difference with existing machine learning-based approaches. Comparison results with other state-of-the-art machine learning methods on a realistic 759-node distribution system demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve better accuracy and robustness under different scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mapping of a Novel Zero-Liquid Discharge Desalination System Based on Humidification–Dehumidification onto the Field of Existing Desalination Technologies

It is well-established that increasing demands for fresh water are paving the way for desalination technologies. However, this correlates with an increase in brine production whose treatment and disposal can be complicated and expensive. This paper presents a thermodynamic model to bound the operation and development of a novel Humidification–Dehumidification-based system featuring Zero-Liquid Discharge and off-grid capabilities. The model employs conservation laws to find feasible state points to meet a baseline operation of 10 kg/h of product water separated from a hypersaline feed stream with 100 g/kg salt concentration. The system incurs in a 1039 kWh/m3 energy intensity that can be supplied completely by an electric source or in combination with heating steam. Follow-up sensitivity analysis highlights the robustness of the system in handling variations of 25% in product flowrate and 75% in feed salinity, practically without incurring any additional energy demands. The proposed system operating costs between 72 USD/m3 and 96 USD/m3 are comparable to those of existing brine disposal techniques. Furthermore, an operational map of existing desalination technologies suggests a niche characterized by high recovery rates and high feed salinities that are generally unfulfilled by conventional desalination methods. Overall, the proposed system shows potential for off-grid hypersaline brine treatment. This study sets the stage for future development of physics-based and data-driven predictive models as the proposed system iterates into a pilot plant deployment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Causal Evaluations for Identifying Differences between Observations and Earth System Models

We use a nascent data-driven causal discovery method to find and compare causal relationships in observed data and climate model output. We consider ten different features in the Arctic climate collected from public databases on observational and Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) data. In identifying and analyzing the resulting causal networks, we make meaningful comparisons between observed and climate model interdependencies. This work demonstrates our ability to apply the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm to Arctic climate data, that there are noticeable similarities between observed and simulated Arctic climate dynamics, and that further work is needed to identify specific areas for improvement to better align models with natural observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Model Agnostic Reliability Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models Integrated in Instrumentation & Control Systems

In recent years, the field of data-driven neural network-based machine learning (ML) algorithms has grown significantly and spurred research in its applicability to instrumentation and control systems. While they are promising in operational contexts, the trustworthiness of such algorithms is not adequately assessed. Failures of ML-integrated systems are poorly understood; the lack of comprehensive risk modeling can degrade the trustworthiness of these systems. In recent reports by the National Institute for Standards and Technology, trustworthiness in ML is a critical barrier to adoption and will play a vital role in intelligent systems' safe and accountable operation. Thus, in this work, we demonstrate a real-time model-agnostic method to evaluate the relative reliability of ML predictions by incorporating out-of-distribution detection on the training dataset. It is well documented that ML algorithms excel at interpolation (or near-interpolation) tasks but significantly degrade at extrapolation. This occurs when new samples are "far" from training samples. The method, referred to as the Laplacian distributed decay for reliability (LADDR), determines the difference between the operational and training datasets, which is used to calculate a prediction's relative reliability. LADDR is demonstrated on a feedforward neural network-based model used to predict safety significant factors during different loss-of-flow transients. LADDR is intended as a "data supervisor" and determines the appropriateness of well-trained ML models in the context of operational conditions. Ultimately, LADDR illustrates how training data can be used as evidence to support the trustworthiness of ML predictions when utilized for conventional interpolation tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Supporting Co-Design of Extreme-Scale Systems with In Situ Visual Analysis of Event-Driven Simulations (Final Report)

Extreme-scale systems for compute- and data-centric science are pushing the boundaries of system architectures in order to achieve ambitious goals in terms of computing capability, resilience, and power efficiency. Future systems necessitate emerging designs that incorporate new technologies, system organizations, and computer science techniques, and these changes are not yet well understood. Discrete-event-driven simulation of computing system architectures and subsystems has emerged as a productive and cost-effective means to evaluating potential designs, along with capabilities for executing these simulations of extreme-scale systems. However, techniques for analyzing the behavior of these simulations have not kept pace with our ability to perform the simulations, preventing us from extracting the most value from this promising approach. The objective of this project is to support the codesign of extreme-scale system architectures for compute and data-centric science through research and development of novel methods for analysis and visualization of large-scale event-driven simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data-Driven Security Assessment of Power Grids Based on Machine Learning Approach: Preprint

Data-driven security assessment provides key indicators on power system stability using simulations on scheduling models, as opposed to dynamic simulations that are more time-consuming. This paper investigates data-driven security assessment of power grids based on machine learning. Multivariate random forest regression is used as the machine learning algorithm due to its high robustness to the input data. Three stability issues are analyzed using the proposed machine learning tool, including transient stability, frequency stability and small signal stability. The estimation values from machine learning tool are compared with those from dynamic simulations. Results show that the proposed machine learning tool can effectively predict the stability margins for the three stability metrics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Data-Driven Digital Twin for Reliability Assessment of DC/DC Buck Converter

In commercial applications, the operation of DC/DC converters significantly impacts overall system performance and long-term reliability. This study introduces a data-driven digital twin (DT) approach for estimating critical degradation parameters of DC/DC BUCK converter under steady-state condition. Initially, a circuit-level MATLAB/Simulink digital model (DM C ) is refined against a hardware prototype’s switching model dataset using offline particle swarm optimization. The optimized digital model’s steady-state response is then verified with its average model response while varying the duty and load. Subsequently, degradation profiles are imposed on the inductor, capacitor, MOSFET in the DMC. A large dataset is generated from this model, allowing training, validation, and testing of machine learning (ML) models for component health regression tasks. The proposed method employs random forest ML models, achieving impressive regression results with a squared R value as high as 0.99978 and a root mean square error of 4.2× 10 –6 . The method is further validated on a medium power level DC/DC BUCK prototype with varying load conditions, and includes the analysis of MOSFET’s on-resistance under degradation conditions. This data-driven DT method shows promise for identifying parasitic degradation and ohmic loss parameters, enhancing converter reliability assessments in a non-invasive, generalized, and computationally efficient manner.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

ConductorIdentification [SWR-21-58]

This is a novel data-driven model that can identify power system model impedance for local utilities. The model builds a multi-category logistic regression that is trained on local utility secondary system partial GIS data, and then the model can be used to predict the conductor types/impedance for the local utilities secondary models.

Wang, Wenbo↗

Data-driven, structure-preserving approximations to entropy-based moment closures for kinetic equations

In this study, we present a data-driven approach for approximating entropy-based closures of moment systems from kinetic equations. The proposed closure learns the entropy function by fitting the map between the moments and the entropy of the moment system, and thus does not depend on the spacetime discretization of the moment system or specific problem configurations such as initial and boundary conditions. With convex and C 2 approximations, this data-driven closure inherits several structural properties from entropy-based closures, such as entropy dissipation, hyperbolicity, and H-Theorem. We construct convex approximations to the Maxwell–Boltzmann entropy using convex splines and neural networks, test them on the plane source benchmark problem for linear transport in slab geometry, and compare the results to the standard, entropy-based systems which solve a convex optimization problem to find the closure. Numerical results indicate that these data-driven closures provide accurate solutions in much less computation time than that required by the optimization routine.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

ADROC: An Emulation Experimentation Platform for Advancing Resilience of Control Systems

Cyberattacks against industrial control systems have increased over the last decade, making it more critical than ever for system owners to have the tools necessary to understand the cyber resilience of their systems. However, existing tools are often qualitative, subject matter expertise-driven, or highly generic, making thorough, data-driven cyber resilience analysis challenging. The ADROC project proposed to develop a platform to enable efficient, repeatable, data-driven cyber resilience analysis for cyber-physical systems. The approach consists of two phases of modeling: computationally efficient math modeling and high-fidelity emulations. The first phase allows for scenarios of low concern to be quickly filtered out, conserving resources available for analysis. The second phase supports more detailed scenario analysis, which is more predictive of real-world systems. Data extracted from experiments is used to calculate cyber resilience metrics. ADROC then ranks scenarios based on these metrics, enabling prioritization of system resources to improve cyber resilience.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Combustion machine learning: Principles, progress and prospects

Progress in combustion science and engineering has led to the generation of large amounts of data from large-scale simulations, high-resolution experiments, and sensors. This corpus of data offers enormous opportunities for extracting new knowledge and insights—if harnessed effectively. Machine learning (ML) techniques have demonstrated remarkable success in data analytics, thus offering a new paradigm for data-intense analyses and scientific investigations through combustion machine learning (CombML). While data-driven methods are utilized in various combustion areas, recent advances in algorithmic developments, the accessibility of open-source software libraries, the availability of computational resources, and the abundance of data have together rendered ML techniques ubiquitous in scientific analysis and engineering. This article examines ML techniques for applications in combustion science and engineering. Starting with a review of sources of data, data-driven techniques, and concepts, we examine supervised, unsupervised, and semi-supervised ML methods. Various combustion examples are considered to illustrate and to evaluate these methods. Next, we review past and recent applications of ML approaches to problems in combustion, spanning fundamental combustion investigations, propulsion and energy-conversion systems, and fire and explosion hazards. Challenges unique to CombML are discussed and further opportunities are identified, focusing on interpretability, uncertainty quantification, robustness, consistency, creation and curation of benchmark data, and the augmentation of ML methods with prior combustion-domain knowledge.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Three-dimensional realizations of flood flow in large-scale rivers using the neural fuzzy-based machine-learning algorithms

Machine learning methods have been extensively used to study the dynamics of complex fluid flows. One such algorithm, known as adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), can generate data-driven predictions for flow fields, but has not been applied to natural geophysical flows in large-scale rivers. Herein, we demonstrate the potential of ANFIS to produce three-dimensional (3D) realizations of the instantaneous flood flow field in several large-scale, virtual meandering rivers. The 3D dynamics of flood flow in large-scale rivers were obtained using large-eddy simulation (LES). The LES results, i.e., the 3D velocity components, were employed to train the learnable coefficients of an ANFIS. Further, the trained ANFIS, along with a few time-steps of LES results (precursor data) were then used to produce 3D realizations of flood flow fields in large-scale rivers with geometries other than the one the ANFIS was trained with. We also used the trained ANFIS to generate 3D realizations of river flow at a discharge other than that the ANFIS was trained with. The flow field results obtained from ANFIS were validated using separate LES runs to assess the accuracy of the 3D instantaneous realizations of the machine learning algorithm. An error analysis was conducted to quantify the discrepancies among the ANFIS and LES results for various flood flow predictions in large-scale rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LCLS Big Data Handling – How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Data Deluge

Advanced data and computing systems are vital to Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) operations, data interpretation and overall scientific productivity. The transition to MHz-era operation marks a fundamental change in scale that requires new infrastructure and architectures to link LCLS to the required scale of computing needed for scientific interpretation. The LCLS-II Data System meets big data challenges by implementing configurable data reduction that can adapt to multiple science areas, real-time analysis frameworks to provide visualization and fast feedback, and the ability to transfer data to local and remote computational facilities for near real time analysis at the appropriate scale. Feature extracted information generated in the data analysis pipeline - at the edge, local compute, or remote High-Performance Computing (HPC) resources - can be used to steer experiments and inform user decisions during beam time. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) techniques present new opportunities to rapidly analyse large datasets and direct experiments, but create new challenges in scaling, adaptability, complexity, and trustworthiness. We describe how the LCLS-II Data System architecture addresses its data-driven challenges in the areas of data acquisition, data processing, data management, and workflow orchestration to decrease the overall time-to-science and provide a vision for future developments.

artificial intelligence↗