Developing a surveillance system of sub-county data: Finding suitable population thresholds for geographic aggregations
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Werner, Angela K.↗
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Assessing the Impact of Advanced Satellite Observations in the NASA GEOS-5 Forecast System Using the Adjoint Method
The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. In this talk, we present results from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. The tool has been running in various off-line configurations for some time, and is scheduled to run as a regular part of the real-time forecast suite beginning in autumn 20 I O. We focus on the impacts of the newest components of the satellite observing system, including AIRS, IASI and GPS. For AIRS and IASI, it is shown that the vast majority of the channels assimilated have systematic positive impacts (of varying magnitudes), although some channels degrade the forecast. Of the latter, most are moisture-sensitive or near-surface channels. The impact of GPS observations in the southern hemisphere is found to be a considerable overall benefit to the system. In addition, the spatial variability of observation impacts reveals coherent patterns of positive and negative impacts that may point to deficiencies in the use of certain observations over, for example, specific surface types. When performed in conjunction with selected observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies appears to pose a major challenge for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems.
Gelaro, Ron↗
Assessing the Impact of Observations on Numerical Weather Forecasts Using the Adjoint Method
The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. This talk provides a general overview of the adjoint method, including the theoretical basis and practical implementation of the technique. Results are presented from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. When performed in conjunction with standard observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies may be important for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems
Gelaro, Ronald↗
Changes in the TRMM Version 7 Space/Time Averaged Level 3 Data Products Based on GPROF TMI Swath-Based Precipitation Retrievals
TRMM has three level 3 (space/time averaged) data products that aggregate level 2 TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) GPROF precipitation retrievals. These three products are TRMM 3A12, which is a monthly accumulation of 2A12 the GPROF swath retrieval product; TRMM 3B31, which is a monthly accumulation of 2A12 and 2B31 the combined retrieval product that uses both Precipitation Radar (PR) and TMI data; and 3G68 and its variants, which provide hourly retrievals for TMI, PR and combined. The 3G68 products are packaged as daily files but provide hourly information at 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg resolution globally, 0.25 deg x 0.25 deg globally, or 0.1 deg x 0.1 deg over Africa, Australia and South America. This paper will present early information of the changes in the v7 TMI GPROF level 2 retrievals that have an impact on the level 3 accumulations. This paper provides an analysis of the effect the 2A12 GPROF changes have on 3G68 products. In addition, it provides a comparison between the TRMM level 3 products that use the TMI GPROF swath retrievals.
Stocker, Erich↗
Hybrid electric buses fuel consumption prediction based on real-world driving data
Estimating fuel consumption by hybrid diesel buses is challenging due to its diversified operations and driving cycles. Here, long-term transit bus monitoring data were utilized to empirically compare fuel consumption of diesel and hybrid buses under various driving conditions. Artificial neural network (ANN) based high-fidelity microscopic (1 Hz) and mesoscopic (5–60 min) fuel consumption models were developed for hybrid buses. The microscopic model contained 1 Hz driving, grade, and environment variables. The mesoscopic model aggregated 1 Hz data into 5 to 60-minute traffic pattern factors and predicted average fuel consumption over its duration. The prediction results show mean absolute percentage errors of 1–2% for microscopic models and 5–8% for mesoscopic models. The data were partitioned by different driving speeds, vehicle engine demand, and road grade to investigate their impacts on prediction performance.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Single-crystal elasticity of (Al,Fe)-bearing bridgmanite up to 82 GPa
Abstract Thermoelastic properties of mantle candidate minerals are essential to our understanding of geophysical phenomena, geochemistry, and geodynamic evolutions of the silicate Earth. However, the lower-mantle mineralogy remains much debated due to the lack of single-crystal elastic moduli (Cij) and aggregate sound velocities of (Al,Fe)-bearing bridgmanite, the most abundant mineral of the planet, at the lower mantle pressure-temperature (P-T) conditions. Here we report single-crystal Cij of (Al,Fe)-bearing bridgmanite, Mg0.88Fe0.1Al0.14Si0.90O3 (Fe10-Al14-Bgm) with Fe3+/ΣFe = ~0.65, up to ~82 GPa using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Brillouin light scattering (BLS), and impulsive stimulated light scattering (ISLS) measurements in diamond-anvil cells (DACs). Two crystal platelets with orientations of (–0.50, 0.05, –0.86) and (0.65, –0.59, 0.48), that are sensitive to deriving all nine Cij, are used for compressional and shear wave velocity (νP and νS) measurements as a function of azimuthal angles over 200° at each experimental pressure. Our results show that all Cij of singe-crystal Fe10-Al14-Bgm increase monotonically with pressure with small uncertainties of 1–2% (±1σ), except C55 and C23, which have uncertainties of 3–4%. Using the third-order Eulerian finite-strain equations to model the elasticity data yields the aggregate adiabatic bulk and shear moduli and respective pressure derivatives at the reference pressure of 25 GPa: KS = 326 ± 4 GPa, µ = 211 ± 2 GPa, KS′ = 3.32 ± 0.04, and µ′ = 1.66 ± 0.02 GPa. The high-pressure aggregate νS and νP of Fe10-Al14-Bgm are 2.6–3.5% and 3.1–4.7% lower than those of MgSiO3 bridgmanite end-member, respectively. These data are used with literature reports on bridgmanite with different Fe and Al contents to quantitatively evaluate pressure and compositional effects on their elastic properties. Comparing with one-dimensional seismic profiles, our modeled velocity profiles of major lower-mantle mineral assemblages at relevant P-T suggest that the lower mantle could likely consist of about 89 vol% (Al,Fe)-bearing bridgmanite. After considering uncertainties, our best-fit model is still indistinguishable from pyrolitic or chondritic models.
Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
The Aggregate Representation of Terrestrial Land Covers Within Global Climate Models (GCM)
This project had four initial objectives: (1) to create a realistic coupled surface-atmosphere model to investigate the aggregate description of heterogeneous surfaces; (2) to develop a simple heuristic model of surface-atmosphere interactions; (3) using the above models, to test aggregation rules for a variety of realistic cover and meteorological conditions; and (4) to reconcile biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) land covers with those that can be recognized from space; Our progress in meeting these objectives can be summarized as follows. Objective 1: The first objective was achieved in the first year of the project by coupling the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) with a proven two-dimensional model of the atmospheric boundary layer. The resulting model, BATS-ABL, is described in detail in a Masters thesis and reported in a paper in the Journal of Hydrology Objective 2: The potential value of the heuristic model was re-evaluated early in the project and a decision was made to focus subsequent research around modeling studies with the BATS-ABL model. The value of using such coupled surface-atmosphere models in this research area was further confirmed by the success of the Tucson Aggregation Workshop. Objective 3: There was excellent progress in using the BATS-ABL model to test aggregation rules for a variety of realistic covers. The foci of attention have been the site of the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) in Kansas and one of the study sites of the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observational Study (ABRACOS) near the city of Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. These two sites were selected because of the ready availability of relevant field data to validate and initiate the BATS-ABL model. The results of these tests are given in a Masters thesis, and reported in two papers. Objective 4: Progress far exceeded original expectations not only in reconciling BATS land covers with those that can be recognized from space, but also in then applying remotely-sensed land cover data to map aggregate values of BATS parameters for heterogeneous covers and interpreting these parameters in terms of surface-atmosphere exchanges.
Shuttleworth, W. James↗
Building access and community standards for opacity data at the onset of next-generation atmosphere observations
The characterization of a diverse set of exoplanet atmosphere observations, ranging from hot gas giants to small temperate rocky worlds, will be one of the legacies of upcoming facilities such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Our understanding and interpretation of such observations will hinge on our ability to link observations with atmospheric theoretical studies that critically rely on fundamental molecular and atomic opacities. Computing such opacities is a highly non-trivial and inaccessible process which requires several terabytes of available disk space, hours of CPU time per pressure-temperature combination, and requires users to carefully aggregate line lists data from various sources, which limits access and intercomparison of opacity data in the exoplanet community. Here we present MAESTRO (Molecules and Atoms in Exoplanet Science: Tools and Resources for Opacities) an opacity database that can be accessed by the community via a web interface and python API. MAESTRO was built with community input to create a version-controlled opacity database that is easily queryable, includes informative metadata to ensure reproducibility, and exports relevant citations for inclusion in publications. Scheduled for community release in 2022, MAESTRO will prove to be an invaluable community resource in the era of JWST and beyond.
Natasha Batalha↗
Ka-band High-Rate Downlink System for the NISAR Mission
This paper provides a description and analyses of the high-rate Ka-band telecom system for the upcoming NISAR (NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar) mission. NISAR is a collaborative Earth-Science mission between National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), which features an L-band SAR instrument and an S-band SAR instrument. The simultaneous dual-frequency radar system at peak rates will produce data at gigabit-per-second speeds, which drives the data-volume requirements. The key driving requirement for the payload communication subsystem is to provide a minimum of 26 Terabits per day of radar science data to the ground. The high-rate transmitter on the flight system is a software-defined radio developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), based on the Universal Space Transponder platform, providing an offset quadrature phase shift key modulated waveform with Low-Density Parity-Check encoding of the data transfer frames. Two transmitters used in a dual-polarization configuration with each transmitter providing two giga-symbols per second (Gsps) of coded data provides an aggregate rate of four Gsps. In this system, only one watt of signal power is necessary on each polarization to overcome propagation losses and achieve a successful RF link. Several Near Earth Network (NEN) ground station sites (Alaska in the United States, Svalbard in Norway, and Punta Arenas in Chile) are baselined for the space-to-Earth communications link. Each ground station will also feature multiple upgrades to support NISAR’s transmission starting with new Ka-band antennas, wideband downconverters and high-rate receivers. In addition, a baseband data processor called Data Acquisition Processor and Handling Network Environment (DAPHNE), newly developed by the NEN, provides data storage and connectivity to backhaul networks. With NISAR’s large quantities of data (over 3.5 Petabytes over the mission), the processing of science data will be primarily performed on a cloud system to reduce the overall cost to the mission. The system described herein will be the first operational use of Gsps-class downlink rates on an Earth-Science mission.
Dissanayake, Asoka↗
An adaptive adversarial domain adaptation approach for corn yield prediction
Recently, statistical machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored for corn yield prediction. Though successful, machine learning models generated within a specific spatial domain often lose their validity when directly applied to new regions. To address this issue, we designed an unsupervised adaptive domain adversarial neural network (ADANN). Specifically, through domain adversarial training, the ADANN model reduced the impact of domain shift by projecting data from different domains into the same subspace. Also, the ADANN model was designed to be trained in an adaptive way, which guaranteed the model can learn the domain-invariant features and perform accurate yield prediction simultaneously. Informative variables including time-series vegetation indices and sequential weather observations were first collected from multiple data sources and aggregated to the county level. Then, we trained the ADANN model with the extracted features and corresponding reported county-level corn yield from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Finally, the trained model was evaluated in four testing years 2016–2019. The U.S. corn belt was used as the study area and counties under study were grouped into two diverse ecological regions. Overall, the experimental results showed that the developed ADANN model had better performance than three other state-of-the-art machine learning models in both local experiments (train and test in the same region) and transfer experiments (train and test in different regions). As the first study using adversarial learning for crop yield prediction, this research demonstrates a novel solution for improving model transferability on crop yield prediction.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Confronting the water potential information gap
Water potential directly controls the function of leaves, roots and microbes, and gradients in water potential drive water flows throughout the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum. Notwithstanding its clear relevance for many ecosystem processes, soil water potential is rarely measured in situ, and plant water potential observations are generally discrete, sparse, and not yet aggregated into accessible databases. These gaps limit our conceptual understanding of biophysical responses to moisture stress and inject large uncertainty into hydrologic and land-surface models. Here, we outline the conceptual and predictive gains that could be made with more continuous and discoverable observations of water potential in soils and plants. We discuss improvements to sensor technologies that facilitate in situ characterization of water potential, as well as strategies for building new networks that aggregate water potential data across sites. Here, we end by highlighting novel opportunities for linking more representative site-level observations of water potential to remotely sensed proxies. Together, these considerations offer a road map for clearer links between ecohydrological processes and the water potential gradients that have the ‘potential’ to substantially reduce conceptual and modelling uncertainties.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Spatial and Temporal Characterization of Activity in Public Space, 2019–2020
The data reported here characterize spatial and temporal variation in the ratio of short-to-long-duration visits in public places (i.e., points of interest) in the United States for each week between January 2019 and December 2020. The underlying data on anonymized and aggregated foot traffic to public places is curated by SafeGraph, a geospatial data provider. In this work, we report the estimated number and duration of “short” (i.e., <4 hours) and “long” (i.e., >4 hours) visits to public places at the US census block group level. Long visits are shown to be a good proxy for workers based on formal economic data. We propose that short visits are more likely to represent nonobligate activities: people visiting a public place for leisure, shopping, entertainment, or civic or cultural engagement. Our work constructs a ratio of short to long visits, which can be used to inform population estimates for nonworker use of public space. These data may be useful for understanding how people’s use of public space has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic and, more generally, for understanding activity patterns in public.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
MARIAH PCAP data for Validation Demonstration
This dataset holds simulated PCAP (packet capture) data from the SCEPTRE validation demonstration model as a set of pairwise communications between devices via specific protocols. All connections should be assumed to be symmetric, as this data is an aggregation of the true PCAP. A mapping is also provided associating each IP address with its true device type.
cyber-physical system↗
Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Not Detectable in Warmest Month
Land-use and land-cover changes (hereafter simply “land use”) alter climates biogeophysically by affecting surface fluxes of energy and water. Yet, near-surface temperature responses to land use across observational versus model-based studies and spatial-temporal scales can be inconsistent. Here we assess the prevalence of the historical land use signal of daily maximum temperatures averaged over the warmest month of the year (t LU ) using regularized optimal fingerprinting for detection and attribution. We use observations from the Climatic Research Unit and Berkeley Earth alongside historical simulations with and without land use from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to reconstruct an experiment representing the effects of land use on climate. To assess the signal of land use at spatially resolved continental and global scales, we aggregate all input data across reference regions and continents, respectively. At both scales, land use does not comprise a significantly detectable set of forcings for two of four Earth system models and their multimodel mean. Furthermore, using a principal component analysis, we find that t LU is mostly composed of the nonlocal effects of land use rather than its local effects. These findings show that, at scales relevant for climate attribution, uncertainties in Earth system model representations of land use are too high relative to the effects of internal variability to confidently assess land use.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Adoption of AI in the Utility T&D Sector: Use Cases, Consequence, Assessment and Benefits
Digital transformation and utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the electric grid are fundamentally changing the industry’s approach to common problems and enabling a broader paradigm shift in grid planning and operations. The change in approach is circularly both enabling and driving modernization, with load growth and reliable management of data center and AI infrastructure shifting away from planning approaches with relatively predictable behaviors and toward a mix of consumer and industrial choices that surpass human cognitive abilities to process. This movement has potential to condition humans to not understand the system on which the AI depends, while requiring it for development of the necessary infrastructure. Approaches which would address most likely grid conditions and events, such as faults, aging of equipment, and weather, now must also account for large loads which shift not based upon weather or time of day, but the computational load. Quantifying computational load is independent of the traditional grid forecasting variables, where a data center’s aggregate load is determined by user and AI system behavior and decoupled from normal grid planning and operations. AI is both the cause and solution for these challenges, with new grid planning tools integrating massive amounts of decisions into frameworks.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Comparison of Radiosonde Datasets: SondeHub and Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive
SondeHub aggregates radiosonde telemetry data uploaded from community-run radiosonde receiver stations. This radiosonde telemetry dataset is open-source, available to anyone through Amazon S3. There are also other public radiosonde datasets such as National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)’s Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA). While there are many similarities between the two datasets, there are many differences as well due to the nature of the two datasets: one is community-run, while the other is managed by a government agency. This report presents the result of analyzing and comparing the two datasets.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Photovoltaic Fleet Degradation Insights
PV Field Performance Data Initiative 2022 aggregated results including PV system performance loss rates and site metadata.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
3D reconstruction identifies loci linked to variation in angle of individual sorghum leaves
Selection for yield at high planting density has reshaped the leaf canopy of maize, improving photosynthetic productivity in high density settings. Further optimization of canopy architecture may be possible. However, measuring leaf angles, the widely studied component trait of leaf canopy architecture, by hand is a labor and time intensive process. Here, we use multiple, calibrated, 2D images to reconstruct the 3D geometry of individual sorghum plants using a voxel carving based algorithm. Automatic skeletonization and segmentation of these 3D geometries enable quantification of the angle of each leaf for each plant. The resulting measurements are both heritable and correlated with manually collected leaf angles. This automated and scaleable reconstruction approach was employed to measure leaf-by-leaf angles for a population of 366 sorghum plants at multiple time points, resulting in 971 successful reconstructions and 3,376 leaf angle measurements from individual leaves. A genome wide association study conducted using aggregated leaf angle data identified a known large effect leaf angle gene, several previously identified leaf angle QTL from a sorghum NAM population, and novel signals. Genome wide association studies conducted separately for three individual sorghum leaves identified a number of the same signals, a previously unreported signal shared across multiple leaves, and signals near the sorghum orthologs of two maize genes known to influence leaf angle. Automated measurement of individual leaves and mapping variants associated with leaf angle reduce the barriers to engineering ideal canopy architectures in sorghum and other grain crops.
3D reconstruction↗