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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Understanding the solar dynamics is critical for improving our capabilities to forecast the evolution of space weather conditions. We take advantage of currently available computational capabilities to model solar dynamics from the deep interior to the corona and investigate mechanisms that may drive space weather conditions. The simulations are performed using the 3D radiative MHD code StellarBox. Comparison of synthetic spectroscopic observables obtained from numerical simulations and actual observations allows us to uncover physical processes associated with observed phenomena. To facilitate a transition from modeling short-term physical phenomena to developing a reliable forecast-oriented model, we suggest using the data assimilation approach. It allows us to cross-analyze dynamo model solutions and observations and to consider possible uncertainties and errors. In this presentation, we briefly summarize current multi-scale modeling capabilities and results and discuss ongoing developments to build a reliable physics-based forecast-oriented model of solar activity

Irina N. Kitiashvili↗
NASA NTRS2000

Atmospheric Dynamics on Venus, Jupiter, and Saturn: An Observational and Analytical Study

Determining the static stability of Jupiter's atmosphere below the visible cloud levels is important for understanding the dynamical modes by which energy and momentum are transported through Jupiter's deep troposphere. The Galileo Probe Atmospheric Structure Investigation (ASI) employed pressure and temperature sensors to directly measure these state variables during the parachute-descent phase, which started at a pressure (p) of 0.4 bars and ended at p= 22 bars. The internal temperature of the probe underwent large temperature fluctuations which significantly exceeded design specifications. Corrections for these anomalous interior temperatures have been evaluated based on laboratory data acquired after the mission using the flight spare hardware. The corrections to the pressure sensor readings was particularly large and the uncertainties in the atmospheric pressures derived from the p sensor measurements may still be significant. We have sought to estimate the formal uncertainties in the static stability derived from the p and T sensor measurements directly and to devise means of assessing the static stability of Jupiter's atmosphere which do not rely on the p sensor data.

Bridger, Alison↗
NASA NTRS2020

Spectral Range Within Global aCDOM(440) Algorithms for Oceanic, Coastal, and Inland Waters with Application to Airborne Measurements

The optically active component of dissolved organic material in aquatic ecosystems, or colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), is represented by the coefficient of absorption due to the dissolved aquatic constituents at 440 nm, aCDOM(440). Remote sensing of aCDOM(440) enables characterization of ecosystem processes and aids in retrieval of chlorophyll a, a proxy for phytoplankton biomass. Spectrally adjacent band-ratio domains, e.g., blue to green, have previously been applied for remote sensing of aCDOM(440) in coastal and oceanic waters with similar results compared to more complex semi-analytical algorithms. Estimation of aCDOM(440) from ratios of the most spectrally separated ocean color wavebands (end members), e.g., ultraviolet (UV) to near-infrared (NIR), termed end-member analysis (EMA), has previously been shown to increase the accuracy of global aCDOM(440) retrievals from in-water observations of diffuse attenuation and to enable a unified algorithmic perspective without requiring regional adjustment of internal bio-optical parameters. EMA of above-water observations is evaluated herein, with a focus on coastal and inland waters in which increasing optical complexity and likelihood of bottom reflectance challenge the oceanic algorithms developed for deep and optically simple (case-1) waters. Analysis herein of three independent, in situ, bio-optical datasets indicates significant correlation between aCDOM(440) and end-member band ratios (next-generation 320 and 780 nm or legacy 412 and 670 nm ratios) with a coefficient of determination, R2, of 0.87 (log-scale) or higher based on a dataset spanning the dynamic range of global, conservative water bodies. For applicable wavelengths, EMA algorithms are shown to agree with case-1 relationships and to produce consistent log-scale uncertainties across more than three orders of magnitude in aCDOM(440) values (0.001–2.305 m􀀀1). EMA using UV and NIR wavelengths (320 and 780 nm) is applied to low-altitude airborne observations and satisfies 25% uncertainty based on unbiased percent differences (UPDs) within each of three dissimilar match-up sites ranging in aCDOM(440) from 0.02–0.57 m􀀀1. Results demonstrate that EMA is a useful and robust approach for the remote sensing of aCDOM(440) in coastal and inland waters, which are generally shallower, contain more optically complex environments, and span a greater range in aCDOM(440) than oceanic waters.

CDOM↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Brewer–Dobson Circulation in CMIP6

The Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) is a key feature of the stratosphere that models need to accurately represent in order to simulate surface climate variability and change adequately. For the first time, the Climate Model Intercomparison Project includes in its phase 6 (CMIP6) a set of diagnostics that allow for careful evaluation of the BDC. Here, the BDC is evaluated against observations and reanalyses using historical simulations. CMIP6 results confirm the well-known inconsistency in the sign of BDC trends between observations and models in the middle and upper stratosphere. Nevertheless, the large uncertainty in the observational trend estimates opens the door to compatibility. In particular, when accounting for the limited sampling of the observations, model and observational trend error bars overlap in 40 % of the simulations with available output. The increasing CO2 simulations feature an acceleration of the BDC but reveal a large spread in the middle-to-upper stratospheric trends, possibly related to the parameterized gravity wave forcing. The very close connection between the shallow branch of the residual circulation and surface temperature is highlighted, which is absent in the deep branch. The trends in mean age of air are shown to be more robust throughout the stratosphere than those in the residual circulation.

Brewer–Dobson circulation↗
NASA NTRS1975

Cloud structure and heating rates in the atmosphere of Venus

Ground-based observations and Venera 8 entry-probe measurements are used to infer the vertical distribution of cloud particles in the atmosphere of Venus. In the cloud-top region, from a few millibars to a few hundred millibars pressure, the mixing ratio of cloud particles to gas increases with depth. The visible clouds are diffuse with a scale height about one-half of the gaseous atmosphere. Although the presence of significant vertical structure could escape detection by available observations, the diffuse haze appears to extend over at least 20 km in altitude. The Venera 8 measurements suggest considerable vertical structure in the deep atmosphere. A unique solution for the cloud structure is not possible, but if it is assumed that the cloud optical properties are independent of height, then some characteristics of the relative cloud structure can be deduced. Under this assumption, the results show a maximum cloud density near 40 km, a nearly homogeneous particle mixing in the region from about 40 to 50 km, and a fairly sharp cloud bottom near 30 km. Relative maxima in the cloud density are also implied near 55 and 10 km, but with much greater uncertainty.

Lacis, A. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-16988-DND

There has been renewed interest to uniformly recalibrate historical geostationary (GEO) data records to aid in climate monitoring. GEO sensors have annual repeatable angular sampling over a given location. The view angle is fixed and the imaging schedule is usually constant through its lifetime. Given the fact that colocated GEOs are always share the same sub-satellite point and maintain their imaging schedules provides repeatable angular sampling over decades. One of the biggest challenges in transferring a reference sensor calibration using invariant desert targets to another sensor is the accuracy of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BDRF). A well-calibrated GEO can be used to predict the daily exoatmospheric radiance model (DERM) over a desert target for a given GMT that is valid for any GEO sensor at the same location. The advantage of this method is that a BRDF is not needed. Another challenge of invariant target calibration is the unique spectra signature of the desert. However, since most GEOs are built in batches, the spectral response functions (SRF) are very similar for most historical GEOs, the spectral band adjustment factor (SBAF) between GEO sensors is much smaller than for MODIS and GEO sensors. Since the water vapor burden over the desert is seasonal, both the TOA and desert surface can be considered invariant for a given day of the year. The reference GEO can be inter-calibrated with MODIS or VIIRS, which have onboard visible calibration using solar diffusers, using other methods, such as ray-matching or deep convective clouds. Also the next generation GEOs will have onboard visible calibration, which will increase the accuracy of this method. Three Meteosats over the Libyan desert will be used to illustrate the DERM method. The reference Meteosat will be inter-calibrated against Aqua-MODIS. The reference GEO DERM will be constructed and used to calibrate the remaining Meteosats. The DERM calibration will be validated by comparing the calibration using Aqua-MODIS ray-matching. Similarly, two GOES sensors using the Sonoran desert will also be highlighted. An uncertainty analysis will also be performed with emphasis on the SBAF, derived over the desert targets using both SCIAMACHY and Hyperion hyper-spectral radiances.

David Doelling↗
NASA NTRS2021

Importance of Quantifying the Full-depth Carbon Reservoir of Jamaica Bay Salt Marshes, New York

Constraining uncertainty in the global carbon cycle requires valid assessment of both surface and stored carbon in marine and coastal ecosystems (Blue Carbon) as well as terrestrial carbon (forests, peatlands, and soils) [Pendleton et al., 2012]. Quantifying the global carbon stock of coastal salt marshes, potentially the most efficient carbon-burying ecosystems in the world per area, is a key area of further research in both of these fields Pendleton et al., 2012. One of the largest challenges is that despite the fact that salt marshes often sequester carbon several meters deep, nearly all estimates of salt marsh carbon stocks consider only the upper 1 m of sediment (Windham-Myers et al., 2015) [54]. This is particularly concerning because coastal wetlands are increasingly at risk due to climate change, sea level rise, and anthropogenic disturbance and destruction (Deegan et al., 2012) [15]. Using full-depth measurements from marsh cores, we estimate the carbon stock of five salt marshes in the highly urbanized estuary of Jamaica Bay, New York and argue that partial-depth measurements can underestimate carbon stocks. These estimates use calculated carbon content and probe depth data of these marshes collected between 2000 and 2019, applying this data across the full area of the marsh obtained from satellite imagery. Carbon density measurements are then multiplied by the full-depth volume of the marshes to create an estimate of total carbon stock. In addition to calculating present-day estimates, we compare our carbon stock estimates to historical Jamaica Bay imagery to calculate historical carbon stocks and carbon loss. The carbon stock estimates presented here show a 95% carbon stock loss between 1885 and 2019 in Jamaica Bay and highlight the severe underestimation of carbon stocks without full-depth calculations. These findings have important implications for disappearing salt marshes with regard to the global carbon cycle and the incorporation of belowground carbon into global climate models. The findings are increasingly relevant for advocacy efforts aiming to conserve these marshes with sea level rise.

Tidal wetlands↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory

As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST toreduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.

Risk detection↗
NASA NTRS2016

Searching for Decaying Dark Matter in Deep XMM-Newton Observation of the Draco Dwarf Spheroidal

We present results of a search for the 3.5 keV emission line in our recent very long (approx. 1.4 Ms) XMM-Newton observation of the Draco dwarf spheroidal galaxy. The astrophysical X-ray emission from such dark matter-dominated galaxies is faint, thus they provide a test for the dark matter origin of the 3.5 keV line previously detected in other massive, but X-ray bright objects, such as galaxies and galaxy clusters. We do not detect a statistically significant emission line from Draco; this constrains the lifetime of a decaying dark matter particle to tau >(7-9) × 10(exp 27) s at 95% CL (combining all three XMM-Newton cameras; the interval corresponds to the uncertainty of the dark matter column density in the direction of Draco). The PN camera, which has the highest sensitivity of the three, does show a positive spectral residual (above the carefully modeled continuum) at E = 3.54 +/- 0.06 keV with a 2.3(sigma) significance. The two MOS cameras show less-significant or no positive deviations, consistently within 1(sigma) with PN. Our Draco limit on tau is consistent with previous detections in the stacked galaxy clusters, M31 and the Galactic Centre within their 1 − 2(sigma) uncertainties, but is inconsistent with the high signal from the core of the Perseus cluster (which has itself been inconsistent with the rest of the detections). We conclude that this Draco observation does not exclude the dark matter interpretation of the 3.5 keV line in those objects.

dark matter↗
NASA NTRS1985

Osmium coated diffraction grating in the Space Shuttle environment - Performance

Samples coated with osmium were flown on the early Shuttle test flights, and on the return of these samples, the osmium coating was found to have disappeared, evidently due to the oxidation of the material in the atomic oxygen atmosphere. An instrument flown on the Spacelab 1 mission comprised an array of five spectrometers covering the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) to near-IR wavelengths. The EUV spectrometer contained an osmium-coated reflective grating located fairly deep within the instruments. Here, results of an assessment of the reflectivity and stability of the osmium surface over the course of the ten-day mission are reported. It is concluded that the osmium reflective coating remained stable relative to the spectrometer coated with MgF2 over the course of the mission. In addition, the ratio of sensitivity of these two spectrometers did not change in any major way from the time of the laboratory calibration until the time of flight two years later. Any changes are within the 50-percent calibration uncertainty.

Torr, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Galileo Earth approach navigation using connected-element interferometer phase-delay tracking

The application of a Connected-Element Interferometer (CEI) to the navigation of the Galileo spacecraft during its encounter with Earth in December 1990 is investigated. A CEI tracking demonstration is planned for the week of November 11 through 18, 1990, from 27 days to 20 days prior to Earth encounter on December 8. During this period, the spacecraft will be tracked daily with Deep Space Network Stations 13 and 15 at Goldstone. The purpose of this work is twofold: first, to establish and define the navigation performance expected during the tracking demonstration and, second, to study, in a more general sense, the sensitivity of orbit demonstration results obtained with CEI to the data density within CEI tracking passes and to important system parameters, such as baseline orientation errors and the phase-delay measurement accuracy. Computer simulation results indicate that the use of CEI data, coupled with conventional range and Doppler data, may reduce the uncertainty in the declination of the spacecraft's incoming trajectory by 15 to 66 percent compared with the operational solution using range and Doppler data only. The level of improvement depends upon the quantity and quality of the CEI data.

Thurman, S. W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory

As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST to reduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.

Risk detection↗
NASA NTRS2012

Stellar Populations of Lyman Break Galaxies at z approx. to 1-3 in the HST/WFC3 Early Release Science Observations

We analyze the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of Lyman break galaxies . (LBGs) at z approx = 1-3 selected using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) UVIS channel filters. These HST /WFC3 obse,rvations cover about 50 arcmin2 in the GOODS-South field as a part of the WFC3 Early Release Science program. These LBGs at z approx = 1-3 are selected using dropout selection criteria similar to high redshift LBGs. The deep multi-band photometry in this field is used to identify best-fit SED models, from which we infer the following results: (1) the photometric redshift estimate of these dropout selected LBGs is accurate to within few percent; (2) the UV spectral slope f3 is redder than at high redshift (z > 3), where LBGs are less dusty; (3) on average, LBGs at .z approx = 1-3 are massive, dustier and more highly star-forming, compared to LBGs at higher redshifts with similar luminosities, though their median values are similar within 1a uncertainties. This could imply that identical dropout selection technique, at all. redshifts, find physically similar galaxies; and (4) the stellar masses of these LBGs are directly proportional to their UV luminosities with a logarithmic slope of approx 0.46, and star-formation rates are proportional to their stellar masses with a logarithmic slope of approx 0.90. These relations hold true - within luminosities probed in this study - for LBGs from z approx = 1.5 to 5. The star-forming galaxies selected using other color-based techniques show similar correlations at z approx = 2, but to avoid any selection biases, and for direct comparison with LBGs at z > 3, a true Lyman break selection at z approx = 2 is essential. The future HST UV surveys,. both wider and deeper, covering a large luminosity range are important to better understand LBG properties, and their evolution.

Hathi, N. P.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Demonstration of remote clock monitoring by VLBI with three baseline closures

The capability of very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) to monitor the stability of remotely located hydrogen maser frequency standards has been demonstrated by a series of experiments conducted between Deep Space Stations in Australia, Spain, and California. The measured stabilities of the clock systems, over approximately 10 day intervals, were 1 to 3 parts in 10 to the 13th power, with the instabilities due to the oscillators, the clock distribution systems, the receiving system delays, and the VLBI measurement error. Experiments were conducted independently using two different systems (BLOCK 0 and WBDAS). Later comparison shows agreement on the order of 1 part in 10 to the 13th power. Closure was demonstrated on three separate occasions to 33, 10, and 13 ns with an error uncertainty of + or - 42 ns. The results represent an important consistency check on VLBI measurements.

Cheetham, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

An extragalactic reference frame from DSN VLBI measurements - 1989

Assessment of the impact of recent improvements Deep Space Network (DSN) instrumentation, as well as of joint data analyses, provide a prognosis for the accuracy level to be expected in future realizations of an inertial radio reference frame. Intercontinental dual-frequency radio interferometric measurements during 68 sessions (including two recent sessions employing Mark III instrumentation) from 1978 to 1989 using NASA's DSN stations in California, Spain, and Australia give 8900 pairs of delay and delay-rate observations. Analysis yields a catalog of positions of 200 extragalactic radio sources north of -45 deg declination. The resulting source-position formal uncertainty distributions peak below 1 milliarcsecond, with 75 percent being smaller than 2 mas. Comparison with independent measurements shows some evidence for systematic errors at the milliarcsecond level.

Sovers, O. J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Current Sheets in the Heliosheath: Voyager 1, 2009

We identified all of the current sheets for which we have relatively complete and accurate magnetic field (B) data from Voyager 1 (V1) from days of year (DOYs) 1 to 331, 2009, which were obtained deep in the heliosheath between 108.5 and 111.8 AU. Three types of current sheets were found: (1) 15 proton boundary layers (PBLs), (2) 10 and 3 magnetic holes and magnetic humps, respectively, and (3) 3 sector boundaries. The magnetic field strength changes across PBL, and the profile B(t) is linearly related to the hyperbolic tangent function, but the direction of B does not change. For each of the three sector boundaries, B rotated in a plane normal to the minimum variance direction, and the component of B along the minimum variance direction was zero within the uncertainties, indicating that the sector boundaries were tangential discontinuities. The structure of the sector boundaries was not as simple as that for PBLs. The average thickness of magnetic holes and humps (approx.30 RL) was twice that of the PBLs (approx.15 RL). The average thickness of the current sheets associated with sector boundaries was close to the thickness of the PBLs. Our observations are consistent with the hypothesis that magnetic holes and humps are solitons, which are initiated by the mirror mode instability, and evolve by nonlinear kinetic plasma processes to pressure balanced structures maintained by magnetization currents and proton drift currents in the gradients of B.

Burlaga, L. F.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A demonstration of a transportable radio interferometric surveying system with 3-cm accuracy on a 307-m base line

A precision geodetic measurement system (Aries, for Astronomical Radio Interferometric Earth Surveying) based on the technique of very long base line interferometry has been designed and implemented through the use of a 9-m transportable antenna and the NASA 64-m antenna of the Deep Space Communications Complex at Goldstone, California. A series of experiments designed to demonstrate the inherent accuracy of a transportable interferometer was performed on a 307-m base line during the period from December 1973 to June 1974. This short base line was chosen in order to obtain a comparison with a conventional survey with a few-centimeter accuracy and to minimize Aries errors due to transmission media effects, source locations, and earth orientation parameters. The base-line vector derived from a weighted average of the measurements, representing approximately 24 h of data, possessed a formal uncertainty of about 3 cm in all components. This average interferometry base-line vector was in good agreement with the conventional survey vector within the statistical range allowed by the combined uncertainties (3-4 cm) of the two techniques.

Ong, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Comparing Consider-Covariance Analysis with Sigma-Point Consider Filter and Linear-Theory Consider Filter Formulations

Recent literature in applied estimation theory reflects growing interest in the sigma-point (also called unscented ) formulation for optimal sequential state estimation, often describing performance comparisons with extended Kalman filters as applied to specific dynamical problems [c.f. 1, 2, 3]. Favorable attributes of sigma-point filters are described as including a lower expected error for nonlinear even non-differentiable dynamical systems, and a straightforward formulation not requiring derivation or implementation of any partial derivative Jacobian matrices. These attributes are particularly attractive, e.g. in terms of enabling simplified code architecture and streamlined testing, in the formulation of estimators for nonlinear spaceflight mechanics systems, such as filter software onboard deep-space robotic spacecraft. As presented in [4], the Sigma-Point Consider Filter (SPCF) algorithm extends the sigma-point filter algorithm to the problem of consider covariance analysis. Considering parameters in a dynamical system, while estimating its state, provides an upper bound on the estimated state covariance, which is viewed as a conservative approach to designing estimators for problems of general guidance, navigation and control. This is because, whether a parameter in the system model is observable or not, error in the knowledge of the value of a non-estimated parameter will increase the actual uncertainty of the estimated state of the system beyond the level formally indicated by the covariance of an estimator that neglects errors or uncertainty in that parameter. The equations for SPCF covariance evolution are obtained in a fashion similar to the derivation approach taken with standard (i.e. linearized or extended) consider parameterized Kalman filters (c.f. [5]). While in [4] the SPCF and linear-theory consider filter (LTCF) were applied to an illustrative linear dynamics/linear measurement problem, in the present work examines the SPCF as applied to nonlinear sequential consider covariance analysis, i.e. in the presence of nonlinear dynamics and nonlinear measurements. A simple SPCF for orbit determination, exemplifying an algorithm hosted in the guidance, navigation and control (GN&C) computer processor of a hypothetical robotic spacecraft, was implemented, and compared with an identically-parameterized (standard) extended, consider-parameterized Kalman filter. The onboard filtering scenario examined is a hypothetical spacecraft orbit about a small natural body with imperfectly-known mass. The formulations, relative complexities, and performances of the filters are compared and discussed.

Lisano, Michael E.↗