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At least 271 records · Page 15

Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments

Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States for the last half-century. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study, we have modeled the intensities of 620 historical TC events in the North Atlantic Basin using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep learning intensity model. By applying a thermodynamic warming signal extrapolated from Global Climate Models, we rerun historical events under eight different future climate scenarios, providing a spectrum of potential TC intensity outcomes. One of the future simulations indicates a staggering 43% increase in the number of major hurricanes, underscoring the critical impact of climate change on TC intensity. Additionally, an interactive dashboard has been created to enable users to explore individual storm simulations and understand the influence of future climate signals on environmental conditions of TC development and resulting TC intensities. This dataset and the user-friendly tool offer invaluable resources for systematic exploration of the discrete effects that changes in the air-sea thermodynamic state have on the intensities of TCs.

Climate Change↗

Shewanella baltica Ecotypes Have Wide Transcriptional Variation under the Same Growth Conditions

In bacterial populations, subtle expressional differences may promote ecological specialization through the formation of distinct ecotypes. In a barrier-free habitat, this process most likely precedes population divergence and may predict speciation events. To examine this, we used four sequenced strains of the bacterium Shewanella baltica, OS155, OS185, OS195, and OS223, as models to assess transcriptional variation and ecotype formation within a prokaryotic population. All strains were isolated from different depths throughout a water column of the Baltic Sea, occupying different ecological niches characterized by various abiotic parameters. Although the genome sequences are nearly 100% conserved, when grown in the laboratory under standardized conditions, all strains exhibited different growth rates, suggesting significant expressional variation. Using the Ecotype Simulation algorithm, all strains were considered to be discrete ecotypes when compared to 32 other S. baltica strains isolated from the same water column, suggesting ecological divergence. Next, we employed custom microarray slides containing oligonucleotide probes representing the core genome of OS155, OS185, OS195, and OS223 to detect natural transcriptional variation among strains grown under identical conditions. Significant transcriptional variation was noticed among all four strains. Differentially expressed gene profiles seemed to coincide with the metabolic signatures of the environment at the original isolation depth. Transcriptional pattern variations such as the ones highlighted here may be used as indicators of short-term evolution emerging from the formation of bacterial ecotypes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Ground-Based Remote Retrievals of Cumulus Entrainment Rates

While fractional entrainment rates for cumulus clouds have typically been derived from airborne observations, this limits the size and scope of available data sets. To increase the number of continental cumulus entrainment rate observations available for study, an algorithm for retrieving them from ground-based remote sensing observations has been developed. This algorithm, called the Entrainment Rate In Cumulus Algorithm (ERICA), uses the suite of instruments at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site of the United States Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility as inputs into a Gauss-Newton optimal estimation scheme, in which an assumed guess of the entrainment rate is iteratively adjusted through intercomparison of modeled liquid water path and cloud droplet effective radius to their observed counterparts. The forward model in this algorithm is the Explicit Mixing Parcel Model (EMPM), a cloud parcel model that treats entrainment as a series of discrete entrainment events. A quantified value for measurement uncertainty is also returned as part of the retrieval. Sensitivity testing and information content analysis demonstrate the robust nature of this method for retrieving accurate observations of the entrainment rate without the drawbacks of airborne sampling. Results from a test of ERICA on three months of shallow cumulus cloud events show significant variability of the entrainment rate of clouds in a single day and from one day to the next. The mean value of 1.06 km-¹ for the entrainment rate in this dataset corresponds well with prior observations and simulations of the entrainment rate in cumulus clouds.

Wagner, Timothy J.↗

Decentralized modular hybrid supervisory control for the formation of unmanned helicopters

Abstract Formation control of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) requires them to tightly cooperate to reach and keep the formation, while avoiding collision. This paper proposes a novel decentralized hybrid supervisory control approach for the formation control of multiple UAVs. This is achieved by developing a symbolic motion planning technique to polarly partition the motion space resulting in a finite state discrete event model for the motion dynamics of each UAV. Then, a modular discrete supervisor is designed for different components of the formation mission including reaching the formation, keeping the formation, and collision avoidance. Further, for the collision avoidance mechanism, a novel top‐down decomposition‐based approach is developed to design local supervisors decentralizedly. It is formally proved that with the proposed top‐down decomposition‐based approach, the (locally) supervised UAVs, as a whole, can cooperatively satisfy the desired (global) collision avoidance specification. The proposed decentralized supervisory control algorithm is also verified through a hardware‐in‐the‐loop simulator for the formation control of unmanned helicopters.

Karimoddini, Ali↗

Entrainment of coarse grains using a discrete particle model

Conventional bedload transport models and incipient motion theories relying on a time-averaged boundary shear stress are incapable of accounting for the effects of fluctuating near-bed velocity in turbulent flow and are therefore prone to significant errors. Impulse, the product of an instantaneous force magnitude and its duration, has been recently proposed as an appropriate criterion for quantifying the effects of flow turbulence in removing coarse grains from the bed surface. Here, a discrete particle model (DPM) is used to examine the effects of impulse, representing a single idealized turbulent event, on particle entrainment. The results are classified according to the degree of grain movement into the following categories: motion prior to entrainment, initial dislodgement, and energetic displacement. The results indicate that in all three cases the degree of particle motion depends on both the force magnitude and the duration of its application and suggest that the effects of turbulence must be adequately accounted for in order to develop a more accurate method of determining incipient motion. DPM is capable of simulating the dynamics of grain entrainment and is an appropriate tool for further study of the fundamental mechanisms of sediment transport.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Extended MHD modeling of tearing-driven magnetic relaxation

Discrete relaxation events in reversed-field pinch relevant configurations are investigated numerically with nonlinear extended magnetohydrodynamic modeling, including the Hall term in Ohm’s law and first-order ion finite Larmor radius effects. Our results show variability among relaxation events, where the Hall dynamo effect may help or impede the MHD dynamo effect in relaxing the parallel current density profile. The competitive behavior arises from multi-helicity conditions where the dominant magnetic fluctuation is relatively small. The resulting changes in parallel current density and parallel flow are aligned in the core, consistent with experimental observations. Analysis of simulation results also confirms that force density from fluctuation-induced Reynolds stress arises subsequent to the drive from fluctuation-induced Lorentz force density. Transport of momentum density is found to be dominated by the fluctuation-induced Maxwell stress over most of the cross section with viscous and gyroviscous contributions being large in the edge region. The findings resolve a discrepancy with respect to the relative orientation of current density and flow relaxation, which had not been realized or investigated in Ref. [King et. al. Phys. Plasmas 19, 055905 (2012)], where only the magnitude of flow relaxation is actually consistent with experimental results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

GPU Acceleration of History-Based Multigroup Monte Carlo

Accurate solutions of the radiation transport equation play an important role in the analysis of many nuclear systems. Because there is no need to discretize the problem, Monte Carlo methods offer the most accurate possible solutions to the transport equation. However, significant computational effort is required to reduce the stochastic noise inherent to Monte Carlo methods. Current trends in high performance computing are moving towards vectorized, single instruction multiple data (SIMD), architectures such as Intel Xeon Phis and graphics processing units (GPUs) due to their favorable ratio of performance to power consumption. The challenge of adapting Monte Carlo transport to vectorized computing architectures was first addressed by Brown with an algorithm known as event-based Monte Carlo. In this approach, rather than simulating individual particle histories from birth to death, groups of particles are processed one event at a time. This allows each event batch to perform the same operations in lockstep, enabling use of the vector hardware. Although modern vectorized hardware is more versatile than the early vector machines, reducing so-called thread divergence is nonetheless still an important consideration for algorithm design. Many of the algorithms proposed so far for Monte Carlo transport on advanced architectures have focused on variants of event-based transport. Some evidence, however, suggests that low-level thread divergence, resulting from short-lived branching statements, may not be detrimental to overall performance on GPUs as long as the effect on achievable memory bandwidth is considered. This paper characterizes the performance of a traditional history-based Monte Carlo algorithm on GPUs. We show that with only minor modifications to traditional algorithms, significant performance gains relative to CPUs are possible. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Nuclear Power Plant Cyber Security Discrete Dynamic Event Tree Analysis (LDRD 17-0958) FY17 Report

Instrumentation and control of nuclear power is transforming from analog to modern digital assets. These control systems perform key safety and security functions. This transformation is occurring in new plant designs as well as in the existing fleet of plants as the operation of those plants is extended to 60 years. This transformation introduces new and unknown issues involving both digital asset induced safety issues and security issues. Traditional nuclear power risk assessment tools and cyber security assessment methods have not been modified or developed to address the unique nature of cyber failure modes and of cyber security threat vulnerabilities. iii This Lab-Directed Research and Development project has developed a dynamic cyber-risk in- formed tool to facilitate the analysis of unique cyber failure modes and the time sequencing of cyber faults, both malicious and non-malicious, and impose those cyber exploits and cyber faults onto a nuclear power plant accident sequence simulator code to assess how cyber exploits and cyber faults could interact with a plants digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) system and defeat or circumvent a plants cyber security controls. This was achieved by coupling an existing Sandia National Laboratories nuclear accident dynamic simulator code with a cyber emulytics code to demonstrate real-time simulation of cyber exploits and their impact on automatic DI&C responses. Studying such potential time-sequenced cyber-attacks and their risks (i.e., the associated impact and the associated degree of difficulty to achieve the attack vector) on accident management establishes a technical risk informed framework for developing effective cyber security controls for nuclear power.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Perspective: Insight into reaction coordinates and dynamics from the potential energy landscape

This perspective focuses on conceptual and computational aspects of the potential energy landscape framework. It has two objectives: first to summarise some key developments of the approach and second to illustrate how such techniques can be applied using a specific example that exploits knowledge of pathways. Recent developments in theory and simulation within the landscape framework are first outlined, including methods for structure prediction, analysis of global thermodynamic properties, and treatment of rare event dynamics. We then develop a connection between the kinetic transition network treatment of dynamics and a potential of mean force defined by a reaction coordinate. The effect of projection from the full configuration space to low dimensionality is illustrated for an atomic cluster. In this example, where a relatively successful structural order parameter is available, the principal change in cluster morphology is reproduced, but some details are not faithfully represented. In contrast, a profile based on configurations that correspond to the discrete path defined geometrically retains all the barriers and minima. This comparison provides insight into the physical origins of “friction” effects in low-dimensionality descriptions of dynamics based upon a reaction coordinate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Supporting Risk-informed Decision-making During Reactor Accidents

Uncertainty in severe accident evolution and outcome is driven by event bifurcations that represent distinctive challenges to defensive layers and tend to promote the emergence of discrete classes of core damage and accident risk. This discrete set of "attractor" states arise from the complex networks of competing physical phenomena and conditional event cascades occurring as the overall system degrades – a process that yields increasing degrees of freedom and accident progression pathways. Characterization of these event spaces has proven elusive to more traditional data interrogation methods, but proves tractable by application of more advanced data collection and machine learning approaches. Through application of these approaches we demonstrate a conceptual framework that enables real-time/robust, risk-informed decision-making support to improve accident mitigation and encourage “graceful exits” during low probability, extreme events limiting accident consequences. In this analysis, we simulated over 8,000 short-term station blackout (STSBO) accidents with the state-of-the-art integral severe accident code, MELCOR, and demonstrate the potential for ML approaches to predict simulation outcomes. We chose to pair ML tools with interpretable and mechanistic event trees for the considered STSBO accident space to predict the likelihood of future event paths along the tree. In addition to the current state of the system, we use information from recent trajectories of temperature, pressure, and other physical features, combining both the current state and past trajectories to forecast future event paths. Finally, we simulate the random injection of variable amounts of water to quantify the efficacy of available actions at reducing risks along the many branches in the event tree. We identify scenarios and windows of opportunity to mitigate risk as well as scenarios in which such actions are unlikely to alter the accident end-state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Skyshine Calculations for a Large Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Facility with SCALE 6.2.3

The SCALE code system developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory includes state-of-the-art capabilities for radiation source term and radiation transport simulations that can be used in numerous applications, including dose rate analyses of complex consolidated interim storage facilities (CISFs). A licensed CISF could be used to store tens of thousands of tonnes of spent nuclear fuel discharged from commercial power reactors using various cask and storage pad designs. A CISF design must comply with the regulatory requirements provided in 10 CFR Part 72, including requirements related to annual dose limits applicable to real individuals located beyond the area controlled by the licensee. Therefore, calculating a dose to the public is a necessary part of the licensing process for the construction of a CISF. These calculations are very challenging because of the complexity of the CISF design and the low magnitude of dose rate at large distances from the facility. This paper describes detailed far-field dose rate calculations performed for a proposed CISF using MAVRIC, the Monte Carlo radiation shielding sequence in SCALE 6.2.3, with automated variance reduction based on discrete ordinates calculations. The method presented in this paper uses a detailed Monte Carlo radiation transport simulation in one step from source to dose rate. A series of independent simulations was made using the complete site geometry (all casks present), but with only one cask containing radiation sources to obtain the dose rate maps produced by each storage cask. The CISF dose rate map was obtained by adding the dose rate maps produced by the independent individual cask simulations. Ample volumes of air and soil extending beyond the location of interest for dose rate calculation were included in the calculation model to properly simulate important radiation attenuation and scattering events that affect far-field dose rates. Furthermore, a comprehensive sensitivity study is included in this paper to illustrate the importance of selecting appropriate air volume, mass density, and composition for CISF skyshine dose rate calculations. Dry soil and soil containing water were analyzed to determine their effects on groundshine radiation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Nanoindentation of Micrograins in Polycrystals under Multiaxial Stress: Control of Abrupt & Stochastic Plastic Events

Deforming objects in the world of the small has proven a much more complex task than just bending a common-sized object like a spoon. Over the last decade, it has become clear that the application of stress on micron-sized objects, such as micropillars, leads to abrupt and stochastic plastic strain jumps that do not satisfy Weibull statistics (as expected for uncorrelated defect yielding) but instead seem to follow highly wide, power-law distributions, pointing towards cooperative dislocation plasticity. Are power-law distributed plastic events the rule or the exception in crystals? If the rule, can we design protocols to control and suppress them in order to achieve deterministic and smooth microforming processes? We propose to combine experiments and theory to unravel the mysteries of abrupt microplastic deformation in a natural dislocation environment: micron-sized grains (\micrograins") of polycrystals. We propose a novel experimental design that utilizes nanoindentation and 4-point bending techniques on the substrate of polycrystalline thin films of two typical FCC metals (Al and Cu), and make concrete theoretical conjectures, based on intuition built from previous theoretical and experimental efforts in micropillar compression and nanoindentation. Based on a wide set of observations over the last decade, we put forward two distinct hypotheses that we propose to investigate in both theory and experiments: Our first conjecture is that crystal plasticity in the central region of micron-sized grains has micropillar-like stochastic features: power-law plastic strain jumps at stresses above the macroscale yield strength, displaying strong size and rate effects. We will demonstrate this similarity in spherical nanoindentation experiments in the central-region of multi-orientation grains of Al and Cu thin films. Al and Cu are selected for their disparity in stacking fault energy and consequently, their different propensity for cross-slip relaxation; however, our protocol may be applied to any crystalline material of technological interest. We will test our hypothesis by performing two-dimensional extended discrete dislocation plasticity (2.5D-DDP) simulations, inspired by comparable successful studies of micropillar plasticity, and extended to model nanoindentation with two slip systems and on a surface of a bicrystal with microhard grain-boundaries (GB), ie. not allowing dislocation absorption (116). Our model will include effective three dimensional dislocation mechanisms such as dislocation multiplication and double-cross-slip assisted glide. Second, we hypothesize that the application of uniform in-plane stress on our thin films below the yield point can smoothen the micrograin plastic response during nanoindentation. On a technological level, we propose that indentation-induced localization (sink-in) may be diminished by the application of concurrent in-plane stress that activates slow, viscoplastic relaxations near GBs. We aim to demonstrate our hypothesis through a 4-point bending apparatus that introduces a homogeneous in-plane stress state before indentation. We will perform simulations of a coarse-grained mesoscale theory of plasticity in a system with microhard GBs, benchmarked through 2.5D-DDP simulations, which will capture the effects of slow viscoplastic relaxations. Our nanoindentation abrupt event statistics studies, either in the micrograin interior or near GBs, will be correlated to direct observations of induced surface dislocation microstructures. For we will use TEM-based methods (PACOM/TKD) in combination with EBSD. Indents placed in the center of grains will be analyzed based on the orientation of the grain, while those near to GBs will be analyzed based on the orientation of each grain, the distance from the GB and the 5 degrees of freedom of the GB.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Network Based Estimation of Wind Farm Power and Velocity Data Under Changing Wind Direction

This paper describes an estimation algorithm for velocity and power output signals in a wind farm under changing wind direction. A graph-theoretic definition describes the wind farm as a collection of nodes (turbines) and time-varying weighted edges (inter-turbine wake propagation) that change as a function of incoming wind direction. The velocity at each turbine is determined through a discrete input-output model. Changes in wind direction serve as the input and the output is defined in terms of a time-varying weighted adjacency matrix that depends on the time-delay of information propagation between turbines. These delays, which are defined in terms of the advection speed of the wind and the distance between the turbines, capture the delayed effect of wind direction changes on the inter-connectivity of the graph as the wind conditions at the farm inlet propagate through the turbine array. An event-based update framework is employed to capture time-dependent topology changes due to shifts in wind direction. Simulation results for dynamically changing wind inlet directions to a circular wind farm are compared to predictions from both the static and dynamic versions of the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) model. The approach is shown to enable real-time tracking of dynamic changes to wind farm power output within a framework that can be easily integrated into real-time, horizon-based, control strategies that typically do not account for wind direction changes.

distributed↗

Numerical modeling of heterogeneous asperity distributions controlling the growth of shear rupture on a frictional fault

Copyright 2016 ARMA, American Rock Mechanics Association. A better understanding of the strength distributions and the seismic response of asperities failing within a cohesive (or breakdown) region of the growing shear rupture is important in many engineering disciplines, such as, hydraulic fracture and induced seismicity. In the laboratory, a fault is experimentally modeled by a 400 mm × 80 mm × 12 mm PMMA slider sheared across a large PMMA base plate. A pressure-sensitive film was employed to localize and size, and measure normal stress upon contact junctions. Moments prior to rapid sliding, multiple discrete and localized dynamic events (or foreshocks) were observed at a section of the fault that exhibited a sparse to dense transition in asperity distribution. Experiments showed that foreshocks occurred as the crack (rupture front) moved into the resistive patch of densely distributed asperities. We use the results of pressure sensitive film asperity measurements to develop a heterogeneous finite element (FE) model that studies the effect of asperities within the cohesive region have on the expanding shear crack. Slip accumulated heterogeneously during the loading cycle due to the non-uniform distribution of asperities. We study the constitutive behavior of a frictional interface where local slip is determined by the asperities and their ability to communicate elastically. A foreshock (Mw -7.4) was simulated in a quasi-static manner by instantaneoulsy removing an asperity contact during the loading cycle. The foreshock increased shear stress perturbations to neighboring regions up to distances of ~ 10 to 15 source radii.

Selvadurai, PA↗

Fluoride-Cooled High-Temperature Pebble-Bed Reactor Reference Plant Model

In this report we present work performed in Fiscal Year 2022 that demonstrates the modeling and simulation of a fully coupled neutronics thermal hydraulics reference plant model for a fluoride-cooled high-temperature pebble-bed reactor. The multiphysics model is developed on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle (BlueCRAB) available on the Idaho National Laboratory’s high-performance computer, which natively and seamlessly couples Griffin, Pronghorn, and the BISON Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment based applications. Griffin provides reactor physics capabilities, including depletion to the equilibrium core, k-eigenvalue, adjoint, and transient. The unique direct equilibrium core capability in Griffin is based on a streamline methodology to spatially deplete the pebbles into burnup groups. Pronghorn solves the porous medium equations for the fluid regions and conduction in the solid regions and incorporates a fluidic diode model to simulate the transition from forced to natural convection during accident scenarios. MOOSE modules solves thermal conduction problems for the pebbles and tristructural isotropic in the pebble-bed core, thus providing the fuel and moderator spatial fields for each pebble burnup group. The neutronics feedback relies primarily on fuel, moderator, and reflector temperatures as as well as the FLiBe salt density. Here, we present results for the uncoupled equilibrium core and perform comparisons to equivalent Monte Carlo models. The power distributions and kinetic parameters obtained with Griffin are consistent with those computed with Griffin. We demonstrate a noticeable improvement with the use of discrete ordinates method (SN) transport. The coupled steady-state equilibrium core provides the initial condition for two time-dependent problems: a control rod withdrawal event and an unprotected loss of flow event. In both cases, the reactor design is self-stabilizing and the solutions are consistent with the expected physics. Although this model is prototypical regarding BlueCRAB’s capabilities, its results are consistent with published work by Kairos Power and other research entities. Significant improvements to the model are planned in future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

On the micromechanics of slip events in sheared, fluid-saturated fault gouge

We used a three-dimensional discrete element method coupled with computational fluid dynamics to study the poromechanical properties of dry and fluid-saturated granular fault gouge. The granular layer was sheared under dry conditions to establish a steady state condition of stick-slip dynamic failure, and then fluid was introduced to study its effect on subsequent failure events. The fluid-saturated case showed increased stick-slip recurrence time and larger slip events compared to the dry case. Particle motion induces fluid flow with local pressure variation, which in turn leads to high particle kinetic energy during slip due to increased drag forces from fluid on particles. The presence of fluid during the stick phase of loading promotes a more stable configuration evidenced by higher particle coordination number. Our coupled fluid-particle simulations provide grain-scale information that improves understanding of slip instabilities and illuminates details of phenomenological, macroscale observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Unit Commitment With Continuous-Time Generation and Ramping Trajectory Models

There is increasing evidence of shortage of ramping resources in the real-time operation of power systems. To explain and remedy this problem systematically, we take a novel look at the way the day-ahead unit commitment (UC) problem represents the information about load, generation and ramping constraints. We specifically investigate the approximation error made in mapping of the original problem, that would decide the continuous-time generation and ramping trajectories of the committed generating units, onto the discrete-time problem that is solved in practice. We first show that current practice amounts to approximating the trajectories with linear splines. We then offer a different representation through cubic splines that provides physically feasible schedules and increases the accuracy of the continuous-time generation and ramping trajectories by capturing sub-hourly variations and ramping of load in the day-ahead power system operation. The corresponding day-ahead UC model is formulated as an instance of mixed-integer linear programming (MILP), with the same number of binary variables as the traditional UC formulation. Numerical simulation over real load data from the California ISO demonstrate that the proposed UC model reduces the total day-ahead and real-time operation cost, and the number of events of ramping scarcity in the real-time operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗