Quantifying Metrics forWildfire Ignition Risk from Geographic Data in Power Shutoff Decision-Making
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Engineering - Power transmission and distribution,↗
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Atomistic Insights into Lithium–Glyme Solvate Ionic Liquids: Effects of Chain Length and Anion Coordination
For this study, mixtures of lithium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide (LiTFSI) in diglyme (G2), triglyme (G3) and tetraglyme (G4) at solvate ionic liquid (SIL) concentrations were investigated using classical molecular dynamics (cMD) simulations with a physically motivated force-field specifically developed for modeling these systems. The structural and dynamical properties of the mixtures were computed and analyzed. Lithium solvation shells, radial distribution functions, and X-ray structure factors were studied across the different SIL systems. Translational diffusion and rotational relaxation times were also evaluated, exhibiting similar trends with increasing glyme chain length. The results are consistent with experimental data and in good agreement with previous computational studies on G3 and G4. These findings validate the accuracy of the force field in modeling glyme systems and its use for describing the [Li(G2) 4/3 ][TFSI] mixture. Additionally, the thermal and electrochemical stability of these electrolytes were systematically examined. The thermal stability appears to be governed by cooperative interactions among glyme molecules, while the electrochemical stability is primarily influenced by Li + -anion interactions, which vary significantly with glyme chain length. Overall, the study sheds light on the crucial role of the anion in these glyme-based SILs and offers valuable insights into Li + -glyme systems at SIL concentrations, highlighting their promise as potential Li-ion battery electrolytes.
anions↗
Machine Learning for Scalable and Optimal Load Shedding Under Power System Contingency
Prompt and effective corrective actions in response to unexpected contingencies are crucial for improving power system resilience and preventing cascading blackouts. The optimal load shedding (OLS) accounting for network limits has the potential to address the diverse system-wide impacts of contingency scenarios as compared to traditional local schemes. However, due to the fast cascading propagation of initial contingencies, real-time OLS solutions are challenging to attain in large systems with high computation and communication needs. In this paper, we propose a decentralized design that leverages offline training of a neural network (NN) model for individual load centers to autonomously construct the OLS solutions from locally available measurements. Our learning-for-OLS approach can greatly reduce the computation and communication needs during online emergency responses, thus preventing the cascading propagation of contingencies for enhanced power grid resilience. Numerical studies on both the IEEE 118-bus system and a synthetic Texas 2000-bus system have demonstrated the efficiency and effectiveness of our scalable OLS learning design for timely power system emergency operations.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Accelerating Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference in neural networks and neural operators
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high dimensionality of the network’s parameter space and the non-convexity of their posterior distributions. Therefore, various approximation techniques, such as variational inference (VI) or stochastic gradient MCMC, are often employed to infer the posterior distribution of the network parameters. Such approximations introduce inaccuracies in the inferred distributions, resulting in unreliable uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach that combines inexpensive VI and accurate HMC methods to efficiently and accurately quantify uncertainties in neural networks and neural operators. The proposed approach leverages an initial VI training on the full network. We examine the influence of individual parameters on the prediction uncertainty, which shows that a large proportion of the parameters do not contribute substantially to uncertainty in the network predictions. This information is then used to significantly reduce the dimension of the parameter space, and HMC is performed only for the subset of network parameters that strongly influence prediction uncertainties. This yields a framework for accelerating the full batch HMC for posterior inference in neural networks. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed framework on deep neural networks and operator networks, showing that inference can be performed for large networks with tens to hundreds of thousands of parameters. Finally, we show that this method can effectively learn surrogates for complex physical systems by modeling the operator that maps from upstream conditions to wall-pressure data on a cone in hypersonic flow.
Bayesian inference↗
Digital Twin + AI: Control Room of the Future
A digital twin enhances power grid control room operations by providing real-time monitoring, predictive insights, simulation capabilities, remote control, training opportunities, data integration, and decision support. This technology empowers control room operators to effectively manage the grid, optimize performance, and ensure reliable and efficient energy distribution.
control room of the future↗
Ensemble Federated Machine Learning‐Based Cybersecurity Situational Awareness in Microgrid Network
Cyber-physical microgrids are vulnerable to stealthy cybersecurity threats that disguise their actions through the exploitation of system knowledge. Such actions can severely impacts microgrids deployed in defense bases, slowing the response time of military forces during national emergencies. Several machine-learning algorithms have been proposed to detect intrusions in the grid networks; however, these traditional machine-learning algorithms lack data privacy and are subject to several adversarial machine-learning threats. This paper proposes a novel federated machine learning (FML)-based three-model framework to detect and identify stealthy data-integrity attacks while ensuring data privacy in microgrid networks. The proposed architecture uses a variational mode decomposition technique to extract derived features from incoming measurement and control datasets. The extraction of these derived features allows FML models to learn minute variations in data patterns that allow them to perform significantly better than the models trained with generic datasets consisting of raw features. Our experimental results show the efficient performance of the proposed methodology against different types of data integrity attacks while considering primary and secondary controllers in microgrids. Further, the applied FML-integrated random forest ensemble algorithm outperforms the existing generic FML algorithms during noisy and noise-free datasets with prediction latencies of only 91–134 µs per sample within the 0.1 s sampling interval and requires communication bandwidth of around ∼8.25 KB/s at the control center and ∼2.7 KB/s per edge client for communication.
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Deep Reinforcement Learning for Distribution System Operations: A Tutorial and Survey
Here, the rapid evolution of modern electric power distribution systems into complex networks of interconnected active devices, distributed generation (DG), and storage poses increasing difficulties for system operators. The large-scale integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) and the rapid exchange of measurement data via communication networks present major opportunities for advancing grid operations but also introduce greater uncertainty, higher data dimensionality, more complex network and device models, and challenging control and optimization problems. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms are promising in addressing these challenges. However, they have not been effectively adapted for power systems applications, requiring extensive customization for implementation and evaluation. This has resulted in reproducibility challenges and a steep learning curve for researchers new to applying DRL algorithms to the power systems domain. To bridge these gaps, this tutorial aims to serve as a valuable resource for researchers interested in exploring learning-based algorithms to operate active power distribution networks. Specifically, this work presents a generalized process for translating sequential decision-making problems in power distribution systems into Markov decision process (MDP) formulations, illustrated through concrete grid service examples. Additionally, we introduce a simple environment design strategy to develop and evaluate example DRL algorithms for distribution system applications, complete with an included code repository to guide users through environment construction.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Model-Based Detection of Coordinated Attacks (DCA) in Distribution Systems
The fast-paced growth in digitization of smart grid components enhances system observability and remote-control capabilities through efficient communication. However, enhanced connectivity results in heightened system vulnerability towards cybersecurity risks in the cyber-physical power system. Coordinated cyber-attacks (CCA), when undetected, lead to system-wide impact in terms of large disturbances or widespread outages. Detecting CCA in the cyber layer is critical to thwart cyber-attacks in real-time before the attack impacts the physical system. The challenge of locating CCA stems from the complex grid dynamics, making it difficult to distinguish between normal operational variations and cyber-attack impact. CCA often employs multiple attack vectors targeting geographically distributed components, further complicating CCA identification. Existing research in intrusion detection is primarily focused on the transmission network and limited to detecting individual attacks. In this paper, a novel proactive DCA strategy is proposed for early detection of CCA by establishing correlations among distinct attack events through model-based reinforcement learning that utilizes abductive reasoning to conclude the attacker goal. The solution includes understanding the system model, learning the system dynamics, and correlating individual cyber-attacks to extract the attacker’s objective. The developed learning algorithm identifies the most probable attack path to reach the attacker’s objective by predicting the next attack steps. A DNP3-based cyber-physical co-simulation testbed is developed to test the proposed algorithm using the IEEE 13-node test feeder.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Reflections on the Shifting Experiences of Scientific Infrastructure
Infrastructure of all types is fundamental to modern work and life. Computing for scientific work, especially, extends from distributed local research sites, often at the edges of other major systems, outward into globally connected high-performance facilities and infrastructures. This commentary reviews longstanding research on the social characteristics of infrastructure. We reflect on social concerns that affect the ongoing development, use, and maintenance of a wide range of scientific computing and data resources. Reflecting on the social nature of infrastructure is timely for Computing in Science & Engineering readers, given continued emphasis on developing even more expansive platforms for data and artificial intelligence work in science (e.g., the United States’ Genesis Mission). We assert that, regardless of technological advances, the complex nature of scientific research and data will require continued understanding of longstanding and nascent social practices across varied communities. This is fundamentally necessary to build and sustain usable infrastructure or platforms that can productively advance scientific research.
Paine, Drew [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗
Cybersecurity Standards, Certification, and Best Practices for DERs
Distributed energy resources (DERs) are becoming increasingly important to the electric grid, including solar energy systems. However, DERs also introduce new cybersecurity risks, including those posed by cloud computing. Standards harmonization is essential for ensuring that DERs are secure and can be safely integrated into the grid. This panel will discuss cyber standards harmonization for solar security. The panel will feature experts from the S2G Program, National Labs and Industry who will discuss the following topics: the cybersecurity risks and future benefits posed by ubiquitous solar energy systems, the development and implementation of cloud-based security solutions for DERs, including solar energy systems, the challenges and opportunities for harmonizing DER cybersecurity standards, and Cyber Informed Engineering and the solar security implementations The panel will also discuss the following specific initiatives: the S2G Program's DER Cybersecurity Framework, UL's DER Cybersecurity Certification Program, and IEEE 1547 Updates. The panel will conclude with a discussion of the future of standards harmonization for DER cybersecurity.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Investigation of Flux Spreading in a Light-Trapping, Planar-Cavity Receiver for Enclosed Solar Particle Heating
Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) technology development has recently focused on increasing the operating temperatures to accommodate high efficiency power cycles and thermochemical processes. Inert solid particles as heat transfer media enable solar receivers to operate above 700 degrees Celsius resulting in increased system thermal efficiency compared to the conventional molten salt based CSP system. An open-cavity falling-particle solar receiver that can efficiently heat particles by direct heating from concentrated solar radiation faces challenges with large particle losses from wind and unable to support thermochemical reactions. A light-trapping, planar cavity reiver (LTPCR) where particles are indirectly heated can significantly minimize the particle losses during the operation, support thermochemical reactions, and offer scalability potential. The LTPCR features an array of vertical planar receiver/absorber panels arranged within a cavity configuration. Concentrated solar radiation from heliostats is focused onto the receiver walls, where heat is indirectly transferred to solid particles flowing inside the receiver channels. Heat transfer occurs through direct contact between the receiver panel walls and particles, and can be enhanced by fluidizing particles with air. This fluidization increases particle-wall contact and extends particle residence time, maximizing heat transfer efficiency. The unique vertical planar receiver structure originated from a near-blackbody tubular light absorber, effectively distributing the incoming solar beam spread across the panel walls and trapping light. This flux spreading effect, driven by cosine projection, converts high incident solar flux into a lower, more uniform heat flux on the panel walls. This redistribution enhances heat transfer efficiency between particle-wall or reaction gases-wall, while preventing localized overheating of the receiver panel. Indirect planar cavity solar receivers completely separate solid particles from the ambient environment that can greatly reduce the thermal losses in heated particles resulting in high efficiency at high temperatures above 700 degrees Celsius. This design ensures no particle losses to the environment during the operation while open-cavity designs can experience significant particle losses from wind. An experimental investigation was conducted to observe flux spreading on the receiver panel wall. A lab-scale prototype planar receiver, fabricated using Haynes 230 alloy, was tested under direct concentrated solar radiation using the high-flux solar furnace (HFSF) facility at NREL. The experiment was performed under normal peak radiative heat fluxes ranging from 800 to 1900 kW/m2. A temperature distribution on the panel wall was measured using a thermal imaging camera (FLIR A 6600). To prevent overheating at the receiver front tip, prism-shaped heat shields (Zircar UNIFROM C1) were placed in front of the receiver, and their influence on flux spreading was also studied. Absorbed flux distribution on the panel wall was modeled using SolTrace. The total solar power and flux distributions delivered from HFSF were determined based on the heliostat mirror optical properties, direct normal irradiance (DNI) on the on-sun testing days, peak flux measurement during the on-sun testing, and shutter/attenuator settings Due to the large incident angles of the solar beam on the panel wall, the angular optical properties of Haynes 230 alloy and Zircar heat shields were incorporated into the model. This flux distribution model was then integrated into a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation to predict the receiver panel wall temperature, which was compared with the experimental measurements. Both prediction and measurements identified a temperature hotspot at the backside of the panel, indicating that the incident solar beam can fully reach to the rear of the receiver. The heat shields positioned at the front of the receiver effectively reduced the excessive temperature rise at the receiver front tip. Overall, the temperature was well distributed over the panel wall, with a minor hotspot at the back of the receiver. The model slightly overpredicted the temperature, possibly due to discrepancies in optical properties of the panel and an underprediction of thermal loss in the receiver. The advancement of the particle LTPCR offers a viable alternative to open-cavity receivers by addressing particle loss issues. Additionally, it presents a pathway for enabling solar thermochemical processes, extending CSP technology beyond power generation to fuel and chemical production.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Co-Optimization of Ancillary Services Providing Primary Frequency Control in the Day-Ahead Market
Not Available
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Machine learning-driven predictive resource management in complex science workflows
Here, the collaborative efforts of large communities in science experiments, often comprising thousands of global members, reflect a monumental commitment to exploration and discovery. Recently, advanced and complex data processing has gained increasing importance in science experiments. Data processing workflows typically consist of multiple intricate steps, and the precise specification of resource requirements is crucial for each step to allocate optimal resources for effective processing. Estimating resource requirements in advance is challenging due to a wide range of analysis scenarios, varying skill levels among community members, and the continuously increasing spectrum of computing options. One practical approach to mitigate these challenges involves initially processing a subset of each step to measure precise resource utilization from actual processing profiles before completing the entire step. While this two-staged approach enables processing on optimal resources for most of the workflow, it has drawbacks such as initial inaccuracies leading to potential failures and suboptimal resource usage, along with overhead from waiting for initial processing completion, which is critical for fast-turnaround analyses. In this context, our study introduces a novel pipeline of machine learning models within a comprehensive workflow management system, the Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system. These models employ advanced machine learning techniques to predict key resource requirements, overcoming challenges posed by limited upfront knowledge of characteristics at each step. Accurate forecasts of resource requirements enable informed and proactive decision-making in workflow management, enhancing the efficiency of handling diverse, complex workflows across heterogeneous resources.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Computing neutrino cross sections from Euclidian responses
Energy integrated neutrino cross sections are integrals of nuclear responses weighted with kinematic prefactors. We decompose the prefactors into a limited set of functions of energy transfer and show the relevant integrals are the moments of the responses, and integrals weighted with $1/(a+ω)^n$ with $n\leq 2$. These can be directly obtained from the Euclidean response, avoiding the need for inversion of the Laplace transform. As a proof of concept we study the procedure with toy-model responses for the quasielastic peak. We show that the different contributions can be straightforwardly organized in terms of relative importance, and how flux-averaged cross sections can be obtained. Using a realistic model for the response and numerical uncertainty we show that it is feasible to obtain the required integrals from the Euclidean response, with large uncertainties only for the third moment. Due to kinematic restrictions, the integrals contain contributions from the unphysical region for neutrino scattering, coming from high-momentum nucleons. We show that (in the absence of two-body currents) robust corrections for this contamination are obtained from the single-nucleon momentum distribution. These results present an opportunity to compute certain neutrino cross sections with ab-initio methods with controlled uncertainties.
Nikolakopoulos, A. [Washington U., Seattle]↗
Computing neutrino cross sections from Euclidian responses
Energy integrated neutrino cross sections are integrals of nuclear responses weighted with kinematic prefactors. We decompose the prefactors into a limited set of functions of energy transfer and show the relevant integrals are the moments of the responses, and integrals weighted with $1/(a+ω)^n$ with $n\leq 2$. These can be directly obtained from the Euclidean response, avoiding the need for inversion of the Laplace transform. As a proof of concept we study the procedure with toy-model responses for the quasielastic peak. We show that the different contributions can be straightforwardly organized in terms of relative importance, and how flux-averaged cross sections can be obtained. Using a realistic model for the response and numerical uncertainty we show that it is feasible to obtain the required integrals from the Euclidean response, with large uncertainties only for the third moment. Due to kinematic restrictions, the integrals contain contributions from the unphysical region for neutrino scattering, coming from high-momentum nucleons. We show that (in the absence of two-body currents) robust corrections for this contamination are obtained from the single-nucleon momentum distribution. These results present an opportunity to compute certain neutrino cross sections with ab-initio methods with controlled uncertainties.
Nikolakopoulos, A. [Washington U., Seattle]↗
Computationally efficient and error aware surrogate construction for numerical solutions of subsurface flow through porous media
Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by the solution of Darcy’s partial differential equation for a given permeability field. The subsurface permeability is modeled as a random field since it is known only up to statistical properties. This induces uncertainty in the computed pressure. Solving the partial differential equation for an ensemble of random permeability simulations enables estimating a probability distribution for the pressure at the critical location. These simulations are computationally expensive, and practitioners often need rapid online guidance for real-time pressure management. An ensemble of numerical partial differential equation solutions is used to construct a Gaussian process regression model that can quickly predict the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. The Gaussian process surrogate analyzes the ensemble of numerical pressure solutions at the critical location as noisy observations of the true pressure solution, enabling robust inference using the conditional Gaussian process distribution. Our first novel contribution is to identify a sampling methodology for the random environment and matching kernel technology for which fitting the Gaussian process regression model scales as O ( n log n ) instead of the typical O ( n 3 ) rate in the number of samples n used to fit the surrogate. The surrogate model allows almost instantaneous predictions for the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. Our second contribution is a novel algorithm to calibrate the uncertainty in the surrogate model to the discrepancy between the true pressure solution of Darcy’s equation and the numerical solution. Finally, although our method is derived for building a surrogate for the solution of Darcy’s equation with a random permeability field, the framework broadly applies to solutions of other partial differential equations with random coefficients.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on a Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy
The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging power grid operation. For extreme weather events, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outages and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The outputs of an outage prediction model tool are used to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers repair crews and mobile energy resources (MERs). Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative profiles which the system operator can focus on. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage caused by an extreme weather event and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.
MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,POWER TRANSMISSION AND D↗
Connecting Minds: AI Use Cases to Bridge Power Systems and Large Language Models for Practical Applications
Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and development of large language models (LLMs) present the opportunity to develop a new generation of power systems applications. In contrast with early power system AI applications based on structured numerical data, LLMs offer unique capabilities to perform logical reasoning using text documents, unstructured data, and application programming interface (API) calls to computational software. This paper seeks to bridge the knowledge gap between power systems engineers and LLM developers through a crosscutting explanation of use cases, characteristics, requirements, practical considerations from the perspectives of both LLM capabilities and industry needs. Specific focus is given to applications that can be realistically deployed by electric utilities. After introducing the architecture of LLMs and unique challenges of the power systems domain, this paper proposes twenty representative LLM applications grouped into categories of 1) power system operations, 2) asset management, 3) system planning and analytics, and 4) energy management and protection systems. Five use cases are presented within each category with descriptions of the motivation, objectives, approaches, example inputs / outputs, and benefits of each use case.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗