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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15

Maximum entropy modeling to identify physical drivers of shallow snowpack heterogeneity using unpiloted aerial system (UAS) lidar

Understanding the spatial variability of the snowpack is valuable for hydrologists and ecologists seeking to predict hydrological processes in a cold region. Snow distribution is a function of interactions among static variables, such as terrain, vegetation, and soil properties, and dynamic meteorological variables, such as solar radiation, wind speed and direction, and soil moisture. However, identifying the dominant physical drivers responsible for spatial patterns of the snowpack, particularly for ephemeral, shallow snowpacks, has been challenging due to the lack of the high-resolution snowpack and physical variables with high vertical accuracy as well as inherent limitations in traditional approaches. This study uses an Unpiloted Aerial System (UAS) lidar-based snow depth and static variables (1-m spatial resolution) to analyze field-scale spatial structures of snow depth and apply the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to identify primary controls over open terrain and forests at the University of New Hampshire Thompson Farm Research Observatory, New Hampshire, United States. We found that, among nine topographic and soil variables, plant functional type and terrain roughness contribute up to 80% and 76% of relative importance in the MaxEnt framework to predict locations of deeper or shallower snowpacks, respectively, across a mixed temperate forested and field landscape. Soil variables, such as organic matter and saturated hydraulic conductivity, were also important controls (up to 70% and 81%) on snow depth spatial variations for both open and forested landscapes suggesting spatial variations in soil variables under snow can control thermal transfer among soil, snowpack, and surface-atmosphere. This work contributes to improving land surface and snow models by informing parameterization of the sub-grid scale snow depths, down-scaling remotely sensed snow products, and understanding field scale snow states.

Eunsang Cho↗

Climatic drivers of continental-scale bird migration in spring

Avian migration studies conventionally divide North America into three or four primary flyways.This strategy has been adopted for convenience or determined by the time-averaged movement patterns, so it may not adequately reflect the real temporal variability of bird migration phenology. Using a unique radar-based data set (NEXRAD) covering the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and an objective regionalization approach, we have identified two regions with distinct interannual variability of spring migration. This two-region approach helped us to distinguish the climatic drivers of year-to-year variability specific to the western and eastern CONUS. For example, we identified an east-west dipole pattern in migratory behavior linked to atmospheric Rossby waves that appeared to be triggered by oceanic forcing in the tropical Pacific. Our results offer a new geographic framework that would facilitate exploring the climatic cues affecting the interannual variability of migration phenology at the continental scale.

Amin Dezfuli↗

Climate Drivers of Arctic Tundra Variability and Change Using an Indicators Framework

This study applies an indicators framework to investigate climate drivers of tundra vegetation trends and variability over the 1982–2019 period. Previously known indicators relevant for tundra productivity (summer warmth index (SWI), coastal spring sea-ice (SI) area, coastal summer open-water (OW)) and three additional indicators (continentality, summer precipitation, and the Arctic Dipole (AD): second mode of sea level pressure variability) are analyzed with maximum annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MaxNDVI) and the sum of summer bi-weekly (time-integrated) NDVI (TI-NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer time-series. Climatological mean, trends, and correlations between variables are presented. Changes in SI continue to drive variations in the other indicators. As spring SI has decreased, summer OW, summer warmth, MaxNDVI, and TI-NDVI have increased. However, the initial very strong upward trends in previous studies for MaxNDVI and TI-NDVI are weakening and becoming spatially and temporally more variable as the ice retreats from the coastal areas. TI-NDVI has declined over the last decade particularly over High Arctic regions and southwest Alaska. The continentality index (CI) (maximum minus minimum monthly temperatures) is decreasing across the tundra, more so over North America than Eurasia. The relationship has weakened between SI and SWI and TI-NDVI, as the maritime influence of OW has increased along with total precipitation. The winter AD is correlated in Eurasia with spring SI, summer OW, MaxNDVI, TI-NDVI, the CI and total summer precipitation. This winter connection to tundra emphasizes the role of SI in driving the summer indicators. The winter (DJF) AD drives SI variations which in turn shape summer OW, the atmospheric SWI and NDVI anomalies. The winter and spring indicators represent potential predictors of tundra vegetation productivity a season or two in advance of the growing season.

Uma S. Bhatt↗

Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget

The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH4) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH4 emissions and CH4 accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000–2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18 land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top-down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model-based) and bottom-up (BU) (inventory- and process model-based) CH4 emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH4 emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions—China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil—account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2008–2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH4 emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH4 burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.

Global Carbon Project (GCP)↗

Climate Drivers of Global Wildfire Burned Area

Wildfire is an integral part of the Earth system, but at the same time it can pose serious threats to human society and to certain types of terrestrial ecosystems. Meteorological conditions are a key driver of wildfire activity and extent, which led to the emergence of the use of fire danger indices that depend solely on weather conditions. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a widely used fire danger index of this kind. Here, we evaluate how well the FWI, its components, and the climate variables from which it is derived, correlate with observation-based burned area (BA) for a variety of world regions. We use a novel technique, according to which monthly BA are grouped by size for each Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) pyrographic region. We find strong correlations of BA anomalies with the FWI anomalies, as well as with the underlying deviations from their climatologies for the four climate variables from which FWI is estimated, namely, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and wind. We quantify the relative sensitivity of the observed BA to each of the four climate variables, finding that this relationship strongly depends on the pyrographic region and land type. Our results indicate that the BA anomalies strongly correlate with FWI anomalies at a GFED region scale, compared to the strength of the correlation with individual climate variables. Additionally, among the individual climate variables that comprise the FWI, relative humidity and temperature are the most influential factors that affect the observed BA. Our results support the use of the composite fire danger index FWI, as well as its sub-indices, the Build-Up Index (BUI) and the Initial Spread Index (ISI), comparing to single climate variables, since they are found to correlate better with the observed forest or non-forest BA, for the most regions across the globe.

Wildfire↗

A System Science Perspective of the Drivers of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles

The complex drivers of equatorial plasma bubbles and resulting scintillation requires a system science approach spanning the M-ITM disciplines. The current roadmap missions strongly support this approach, but gaps are identified in planned observations, with potential mission and solutions proposed.

Ionosphere↗

Texas Instrument DRV8881 2.5A Dual H-Bridge Motor Driver Heavy-Ion Single-Event Effects Test Report

The purpose of this test was to characterize the single-event effects (SEE) susceptibility of the Texas Instrument (TI) DRV8881 2.5A Dual H-Bridge Motor Driver. The device’s output was monitored for changes during exposure to heavy-ions at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) 88-inch Cyclotron. The main goal of testing was to test for destructive SEEs. Nondestructive SEEs were recorded during testing but not fully characterized. Testing was performed on November 9th and 11th, 2022.

Thomas A. Carstens↗

Lunar Logistics Drivers and Needs

For human exploration missions, it is critical to provide items such as food, water, air, spare parts, and other similar products required to sustain life, maintain systems, and allow for productive science and utilization activities. Together, these types of goods are referred to as logistics items. This white paper breaks down the different types of logistics items, explains the mission and architecture drivers that determine logistics item needs, and identifies the types of logistics items that tend to dominate overall needs.

Chel Stromgren↗

NPCC4: Tail Risk, Climate Drivers of Extreme Heat, and New Methods for Extreme Event Projections

We summarize historic New York City (NYC) climate change trends and provide the latest scientific analyses on projected future changes based on a range of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Building on previous NPCC assessment reports, we describe new methods used to develop the projections of record for sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation for NYC, across multiple emissions pathways and analyze the issue of the “hot models” associated with the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and their potential impact on NYC's climate projections. We describe the state of the science on temperature variability within NYC and explain both the large-scale and regional dynamics that lead to extreme heat events, as well as the local physical drivers that lead to inequitable distributions of exposure to extreme heat. We identify three areas of tail risk and potential for its mischaracterization, including the physical processes of extreme events and the effects of a changing climate. Finally, we review opportunities for future research, with a focus on the hot model problem and the intersection of spatial resolution of projections with gaps in knowledge in the impacts of the climate signal on intraurban heat and heat exposure.

NPCC4↗

GeoStorm Beacon Design Reference Mission (DRM) and Technology Drivers

A Design Reference Mission (DRM) for a NOAA Space Weather monitoring platform that provides warning times greater than 20 minutes with a 10-year operational timeline is presented. The summary of the DRM includes technology drivers for a subscale flight demonstration to reduce risk for the operational mission.

Solar Sails↗

Distribution Transformer Demand: Understanding Demand Segmentation, Drivers, and Management Through 2050

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been working closely with the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Electricity (OE) to understand the critical drivers and potential means of managing distribution transformer demand through 2050. This effort has consulted with utility representative organizations and transformer manufacturers to understand the problem, characterized the in-service assets, and modeled future demand. Distribution transformers, or service transformers, range from 10 to 5,000 kilovolt-amperes (kVA), have a high-side voltage of less than 34.5 kilovolts, and have step-down power delivery for customer end use. This research will help the manufacturing sector understand production requirements and better inform utility strategies for managing their demand.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Binary Orbits as the Driver of Gamma-Ray Emission and Mass Ejection in Classical Novae

Classical novae are the most common astrophysical thermonuclear explosions, occurring on the surfaces of white dwarf stars accreting gas from companions in binary star systems. Novae typically expel about 10 (sup -4) solar masses of material at velocities exceeding 1,000 kilometers per second.However, the mechanism of mass ejection in novae is poorly understood, and could be dominated by the impulsive flash of thermonuclear energy, prolonged optically thick winds or binary interaction with the nova envelope. Classical novae are now routinely detected at giga-electronvolt gamma-ray wavelengths, suggesting that relativistic particles are accelerated by strong shocks in the ejecta. Here we report high-resolution radio imaging of the gamma-ray-emitting nova V959 Mon. We find that its ejecta were shaped by the motion of the binary system: some gas was expelled rapidly along the poles as a wind from the white dwarf, while denser material drifted out along the equatorial plane, propelled by orbital motion..At the interface between the equatorial and polar regions, we observe synchrotron emission indicative of shocks and relativistic particle acceleration, thereby pinpointing the location of gamma-ray production. Binary shaping of the nova ejecta and associated internal shocks are expected to be widespread among novae, explaining why many novae are gamma-ray emitters.

binary orbits as the driver of gamma-ray↗

An Examination of Heavy Ion-Induced Persistent Visual Error Signatures in an Electronic Display Driver Integrated Circuit

Given the ubiquity of electronic displays integration in human-based systems, the impending mission critical, space-based applications of electronic displays will necessitate SEE assessment of components unique to electronic displays. A commercially available DDIC designed to drive a small form factor organic light emitting diode (OLED) was visually monitored during heavy ion irradiation to catalogue radiation induced persistent visual error signatures that require manual intervention (i.e., power cycling) to return to nominal function. These error signatures were able to be reproduced via modification of configuration register values utilizing the instruction set intended for interfacing a microcontroller with the DDIC. This approach to emulation of heavy-ion induced errors on a table-top assists with human perception-based criticality analysis as well as development of mitigation techniques.

Electronic Displays↗