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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Boundary Layer Controls on the Shallow-to-Deep Cumulus Transition (Final Technical Report)

This project advanced our understanding of the processes governing cumulus cloud formation and provides an improved observational basis for validating earth system models. To be specific, the project used laser- and radar-remote sensors to examine the physical properties of updrafts that rise from earth’s surface and initiate clouds deeper in the atmosphere. These updrafts comprise “thermals” and “plumes” and occur at small spatial and temporal scales (e.g., 10s of minutes, 100s of meters). These small scales preclude explicit representation in most earth system and climate models, and thus necessitate “sub-grid-scale” parameterization of updraft processes. The innovation of this project was to directly measure the size, shape, strength and water vapor content of these updrafts with Doppler and Raman lidars, respectively, and to link these updraft properties to cloud processes using vertically pointed weather radars. The resulting data sets comprise 100s of thousands of updrafts and thousands of clouds, which far exceeds previous efforts, and thereby provides a robust statistical and physical representation of these processes. From these large datasets the project produced a sequence of scientific analyses that: (1) Elucidate how variations in the turbulent structure of the convective boundary layer control shallow cumulus convection, (2) Quantify the upward transport of water vapor to cloud base via thermals and plumes, (3) Validate large-eddy simulations of updrafts and shallow convective clouds, (4) Demonstrate a size-to-strength relationship between updraft width and updraft speed, and (5) Demonstrate how updrafts interact with the stability at the top of the convective boundary layer to modulate the depth and vigor of convective clouds. These results have been disseminated via several published journal articles, academic theses, and conference presentations. Collectively these results contribute to the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program’s goal to “improve understanding of the key cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiation processes that affect the Earth’s radiative balance and hydrological cycle, particularly processes that limit the predictive ability of regional and global earth system models”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of a New Cloud Microphysics Parameterization on the Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems in E3SM

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are one of the most climatically significant forms of convection because of their large role in water and energy cycles. The mesoscale features associated with MCS are difficult to represent in climate models because the relevant dynamics and physics are absent or poorly represented with coarse model resolution (∼100 km). Using a regionally refined model (RRM) with 0.25° grid spacing embedded in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we explore the impact of cloud microphysics parameterizations on the simulation of precipitation, particularly MCS precipitation over the contiguous United States. The Predicted Particle Properties (P3) cloud microphysics scheme has been modified and implemented into E3SM to overcome the limitations of the default Morrison and Gettelman (MG2) scheme in which rimed precipitating ice particles (graupel/hail) are absent and frozen particles are artificially partitioned into cloud ice and snow. We show that P3 improves the simulation of precipitation statistics including frequency distribution compared with MG2 with a limited effect on the diurnal cycle. P3 predicts higher hourly rain rates, resulting in 20% more MCSs and a higher total MCS precipitation (4.4%) compared to MG2, agreeing better with observations. The improvements with P3 mainly result from improved representations of ice microphysics, which not only produces higher rain rates through melting but also leads to a stronger large‐scale ascending motion by releasing more latent heating. This study suggests that improving microphysics parameterization is important for simulating MCS precipitation as future climate model resolutions continue to increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Amazon drought resilience – emerging results point to new empirical needs

Will climate change turn tropical forests from a carbon sink to a source (Pan et al., 2011)? Tropical forests cycle more carbon, water, and energy than any other biome (Bonan, 2008). The Amazon is the largest tropical forest, spanning one-third of South America, and any perturbation in its function has repercussions on the global climate. Mild and severe droughts in the Amazon are predicted to double and triple in area, respectively, by 2100, while the area under wet extremes will increase (Duffy et al., 2015). Our understanding of the role of plants' hydrological environments in determining their drought response, however, is limited (Chitra-Tarak et al., 2018, 2021). An important review by Costa et al. (2023; pp. 714–733) published in this issue of New Phytologist highlights that shallow-water table (WT) forests constitute c. 50% of the Amazon and may act as hydrological refugia during droughts, yet they have been neglected in Amazon forest research to date. Emerging results suggest that the shallow-WT forests that dominate the Amazon basin may increase in productivity under moderate droughts due to relief from hypoxia, suggesting a potential buffer from drought relative to deeper WT forests (Fig. 1). During severe droughts, however, shallow-WT forests may be vulnerable to collapse due to drought-intolerant traits. Addressing the underrepresentation of relatively drought-resilient shallow-WT forests in the Amazon's forest inventories may help resolve the much-debated incongruence in recent studies of the Amazon's drought resilience. Data from forest inventories (biased toward deep-WT forests) indicate that the Amazon's carbon sink is declining, partially because of drought impacts (Phillips et al., 2009; Brienen et al., 2015), whereas basin-wide satellite-based measures of gross primary productivity, which include shallow-WT forests, indicate varied regional responses to droughts (Saleska et al., 2007; Brando et al., 2010). Costa et al.'s (2023) descriptive insights of the intricate balance of geology, topography, hydrology, vegetation, and drought on ecosystem function, as well as their conceptual predictive framework, are useful for developing new empirical research in these understudied ecosystems and improving Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Marine phytoplankton resilience may moderate oligotrophic ecosystem responses and biogeochemical feedbacks to climate change

Are the oceans turning into deserts? Rising temperature, increasing surface stratification, and decreasing vertical inputs of nutrients are expected to cause an expansion of warm, nutrient deplete ecosystems. Such an expansion is predicted to negatively affect a trio of key ocean biogeochemical features: phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and carbon export. However, phytoplankton communities are complex adaptive systems with immense diversity that could render them at least partially resilient to global changes. This can be illustrated by the biology of the Prochlorococcus “collective.” Adaptations to counter stress, use of alternative nutrient sources, and frugal resource allocation can allow Prochlorococcus to buffer climate-driven changes in nutrient availability. In contrast, cell physiology is more sensitive to temperature changes. We argue that biogeochemical models need to consider the adaptive potential of diverse phytoplankton communities. However, a full understanding of phytoplankton resilience to future ocean changes is hampered by a lack of global biogeographic observations to test theories. We propose that the resilience may in fact be greater in oligotrophic waters than currently considered with implications for future predictions of phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and carbon export.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

IM3 Open Source Data Center Atlas

IM3 Open Source Data Center Atlas Description This dataset contains locations of existing data center facilities in the United States. Data center locations were derived from OpenStreetMap (OSM), a crowd-sourced database. Data points from OSM are processed in various ways to determine additional variables provided in the data including: facility area (square feet), associated US county, and US state. This dataset can be used to identify areas of concentrated data center development and inform government and private sector planning strategies for future buildout of data centers and the infrastructure necessary to support it. Usage Notes Validation of OSM-derived data center locations is an ongoing development under the IM3 project, and the database will be updated as new information becomes available. In some instances, both the data center area (e.g., campus) and individual data center buildings are included as overlapping areas in the database. Both values are retained. Data center points, buildings, and campus areas are provided as separate layers in the downloadable data package. Note that data items are not necessarily complete across layers. That is, a specific data center may only be present as a single point geometry in the "point" layer while other data centers are represented in both the campus and building layers. In some cases, data center campuses and/or buildings straddle a county boundary line. Mappings to both counties are retained in the database as separate rows. These data rows will have the same data center id information, but each will have different county information. Crowd-sourced data, by nature, relies on individuals and communities to provide information. As a result, some data may be missing where it has not yet been reported. As we collect information on additional data center locations and as OSM receives additional contributions, the database will be updated to capture additional data points not yet shown. Technical Information Data is available for download under the following formats: GeoPackage (GPKG) CSV Geospatial data is provided in the WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinate reference system. The GeoPackage download contains the following layers. See usage notes for more information. "point" "building" "campus" The "point" layer includes all data from OSM that had POINT geometry type (i.e., individual coordinates). The "building" layer includes all OSM data that did not have POINT geometry and where the building tag in the OSM export was neither equal to "no" or null. Data that did not meet the "point" or "building" qualification was assumed to be a facility campus and included in the "campus" layer. The dataset contains the following parameters. Variables provided by OSM are labeled with (OSM-provided). id - unique identification number (OSM-provided with prefix of "node/", "relation/" and similar attributes removed) state - name of US state state_abb - two letter US state abbreviation state_id - state ID number county - name of US county county_id - county ID number ref - reference numbers or codes (OSM-provided) operator - the name of the company, corporation, or person in charge facility (OSM-provided) name - name of facility (OSM-provided) sqft - surface area of facility polygon, measured in square feet. Only available for "building" and "campus" layers lat - latitude of data centroid point lon - longitude of data centroid point type – represented spatial information. One of "point", "building", or "campus". geometry – POLYGON geometry of area footprint (in "campus" and "building" layers) or POINT geometry of locations (in "point" layer). This parameter is not included in the csv download. Attribution Data center locations were derived from OpenStreetMap, which is made available at openstreetmap.org under the Open Database License (ODbL). US state and county boundary information was collected from the US Census Bureau for the year 2024, which is made publicly available at https://www.census.gov/geographies/mapping-files.html Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License The IM3 Open Source Data Center Atlas is made available under the Open Database License: http://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1.0/. Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2026

IM3 Open Source Data Center Atlas

IM3 Open Source Data Center Atlas Description This dataset contains locations of existing data center facilities in the United States. Data center locations were derived from OpenStreetMap (OSM), a crowd-sourced database. Data points from OSM are processed in various ways to determine additional variables provided in the data including: facility area (square feet), associated US county, and US state. This dataset can be used to identify areas of concentrated data center development and inform government and private sector planning strategies for future buildout of data centers and the infrastructure necessary to support it. Usage Notes Validation of OSM-derived data center locations is an ongoing development under the IM3 project, and the database will be updated as new information becomes available. In some instances, both the data center area (e.g., campus) and individual data center buildings are included as overlapping areas in the database. Both values are retained. Data center points, buildings, and campus areas are provided as separate layers in the downloadable data package. Note that data items are not necessarily complete across layers. That is, a specific data center may only be present as a single point geometry in the "point" layer while other data centers are represented in both the campus and building layers. In some cases, data center campuses and/or buildings straddle a county boundary line. Mappings to both counties are retained in the database as separate rows. These data rows will have the same data center id information, but each will have different county information. Crowd-sourced data, by nature, relies on individuals and communities to provide information. As a result, some data may be missing where it has not yet been reported. As we collect information on additional data center locations and as OSM receives additional contributions, the database will be updated to capture additional data points not yet shown. Data items will occasionally be removed from OSM if they are misidentified, if they no longer exist, if they are duplicates of another item, or similar. For that reason, updated versions of this database may not contain all data center locations included in previous versions. Technical Information Data is available for download under the following formats: GeoPackage (GPKG) CSV Geospatial data is provided in the WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinate reference system. The GeoPackage download contains the following layers. See usage notes for more information. "point" "building" "campus" The "point" layer includes all data from OSM that had POINT geometry type (i.e., individual coordinates). The "building" layer includes all OSM data that did not have POINT geometry and where the building tag in the OSM export was neither equal to "no" or null. Data that did not meet the "point" or "building" qualification was assumed to be a facility campus and included in the "campus" layer. The dataset contains the following parameters. Variables provided by OSM are labeled with (OSM-provided). id - unique identification number (OSM-provided with prefix of "node/", "relation/" and similar attributes removed) state - name of US state state_abb - two letter US state abbreviation state_id - state ID number county - name of US county county_id - county ID number ref - reference numbers or codes (OSM-provided) operator - the name of the company, corporation, or person in charge facility (OSM-provided) name - name of facility (OSM-provided) sqft - surface area of facility polygon, measured in square feet. Only available for "building" and "campus" layers lat - latitude of data centroid point lon - longitude of data centroid point type – represented spatial information. One of "point", "building", or "campus". geometry – POLYGON geometry of area footprint (in "campus" and "building" layers) or POINT geometry of locations (in "point" layer). This parameter is not included in the csv download. Attribution Data center locations were derived from OpenStreetMap, which is made available at openstreetmap.org under the Open Database License (ODbL). US state and county boundary information was collected from the US Census Bureau for the year 2024, which is made publicly available at https://www.census.gov/geographies/mapping-files.html Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License The IM3 Open Source Data Center Atlas is made available under the Open Database License: http://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1.0/. Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multimodal Instrument Platform for High-Pressure MAS-NMR and IR Spectroscopic Interrogation

This project developed and tested a high-pressure (HP) flow-through instrument platform that combines HP- magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance (MAS-NMR) spectroscopy for interrogating reactivity at interfaces between solid materials and HP fluids with HP- infrared (IR) spectroscopy for measuring fluid composition. Solid-fluid interfacial reactivity is usually dependent on concentrations of species within the fluid; thus, knowledge of the fluid composition measured by IR is critical to understanding solid-fluid interfacial reactivity probed by NMR. This new system adds to PNNL’s core capabilities in Chemical and Material Sciences to support fundamental programs in catalysis, interfacial molecular science, and geosciences, as well as in Earth and Biological Sciences to support energy production and storage, efforts to mitigate the impacts energy production systems, attenuation of contaminant plumes, and design of subsurface engineered systems for energy production and waste disposal.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Early Career Perspectives to Broaden the Scope of Critical Zone Science

Abstract Critical Zone (CZ) scientists have advanced understanding of Earth's surface through process‐based research that quantifies water, energy, and mass fluxes in predominantly undisturbed systems. However, the CZ is being increasingly altered by humans through climate and land use change. Expanding the scope of CZ science to include both human‐ and non‐human controls on the CZ is important for understanding anthropogenic impacts to Earth's surface processes and ecosystem services. Here, we share perspectives from predominantly U.S.‐based, early career CZ scientists centered around broadening the scope of CZ science to focus on societally relevant science through a transdisciplinary science framework. We call for increased training on transdisciplinary methods and collaboration opportunities across disciplines and with stakeholders to foster a scientific community that values transdisciplinary science alongside physical science. Here, we build on existing transdisciplinary research frameworks by highlighting the need for institutional support to include and educate graduate students throughout the research processes. We also call for graduate‐student‐led initiatives to increase their own exposure to transdisciplinary science through activities such as transdisciplinary‐focused seminars and symposiums, volunteering with local conservation groups, and participating in internships outside academia.

Warix, Sara [University of Utah Department of Geol↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Land-Atmosphere Coupling at Cloud-Resolving Scale Within the Multiple Atmosphere Multiple Land (MAML) Framework in SP-E3SM

Representing subgrid variabilities of land surface processes and their upscaled effects is crucial for global climate modeling. Here, we implement a Multiple Atmosphere Multiple Land (MAML) framework in the superparamaterized version of E3SM (SP32 E3SM) to explicitly simulate the subgrid variabilities of land states and fluxes at cloud-resolving scale and their interactions with atmosphere. Comparing to the standard SP-E3SM in which all the atmospheric columns of the cloud resolving model embedded within the global atmospheric model grid interact with the same land surface (i.e., Multiple Atmosphere Single Land (MASL)), the impact of MAML on the strength of land-atmosphere coupling is limited, partly because the current implementation mainly facilitates one-way coupling between the cloud-resolving model and the land surface model. Despite such limitation, MAML increases the surface latent heat flux at the expense of sensible heat flux, and increases precipitation in India, Amazon, and Central Africa, reducing the model dry bias compared to the standard SP-E3SM. By employing a normalized gross moist stability (NGMS) diagnostic framework, we find that the increase in precipitation minus evaporation (PE) is primarily driven by the change in large-scale moisture convergence, particularly by the increase of water vapor in the lower atmosphere, while the local effect of total surface energy flux plays a minor role in the P-E change. More specifically, MAML changes the surface energy partitioning (evaporative fraction), increases the atmosphere water vapor, and further increases P-E by decreasing the NGMS. Finally, future development in the MAML framework is discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH4 emissions

Abstract Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions ( $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 ) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH 4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 and temperature, suggesting larger $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH 4 production are thus needed to improve global CH 4 budget assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Central American mountains inhibit eastern North Pacific seasonal tropical cyclone activity

Abstract The eastern North Pacific (ENP) has the highest density of tropical cyclones (TCs) on earth, and yet the controls on TCs, from individual events to seasonal totals, remain poorly understood. One effect that has not been fully considered is the unique geography of the Central American mountains. Although observational studies suggest these mountains can readily fuel individual TCs through dynamical processes, here we show that these mountains indeed play the opposite role on the seasonal timescale, hindering seasonal ENP TC activity by up to 35%. We found that these mountains significantly interrupt the abundant moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea to the ENP, limiting deep convection over the open ocean area where TCs preferentially occur. This study advances our fundamental understanding of ENP TC genesis mechanisms across the weather-to-climate timescales, and also highlights the importance of topography representation in improving the ENP regional climate simulations, as well as TC seasonal predictions and future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Marine low clouds strongly cool the planet. How this cooling effect will respond to climate change is a leading source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the planetary warming resulting from CO 2 doubling. In this study, we observationally constrain this low cloud feedback at a near-global scale. Satellite observations are used to estimate the sensitivity of low clouds to interannual meteorological perturbations. Combined with model predictions of meteorological changes under greenhouse warming, this permits quantification of spatially resolved cloud feedbacks. We predict positive feedbacks from midlatitude low clouds and eastern ocean stratocumulus, nearly unchanged trade cumulus and a near-global marine low cloud feedback of 0.19 ± 0.12 W m -2 K -1 (90% confidence). These constraints imply a moderate climate sensitivity (~3 K). Despite improved midlatitude cloud feedback simulation by several current-generation climate models, their erroneously positive trade cumulus feedbacks produce unrealistically high climate sensitivities. Conversely, models simulating erroneously weak low cloud feedbacks produce unrealistically low climate sensitivities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Substantial influence of vapour buoyancy on tropospheric air temperature and subtropical cloud

The molar mass of water vapor is less than that of dry air, making humid air lighter than dry air at the same temperature and pressure. This effect is known as vapor buoyancy and has been considered negligibly small in large-scale climate dynamics. Here we use theory, reanalysis data, and a hierarchy of climate models to show that vapor buoyancy has a similar magnitude to thermal buoyancy in the tropical free troposphere. We further show that vapor buoyancy makes cold air rise and increases subtropical stratiform low clouds by up to 70% of its climatological value. However, some widely used climate models fail to represent vapor buoyancy in the governing equations. Further, this flaw leads to inaccurate simulations of cloud distributions—the largest uncertainty in predicting climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Substantial and overlooked greenhouse gas emissions from deep Arctic lake sediment

Thermokarst lakes cause abrupt and sustained permafrost degradation and have the potential to release large quantities of ancient carbon to the atmosphere. Despite concerns about how lakes will affect the permafrost carbon feedback, the magnitude of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from deep permafrost soils remains poorly understood. Here we incubated a very deep sediment core (20 m) to constrain the potential productivity of thawed Yedoma and underlying Quaternary sand and gravel deposits. Through radiocarbon dating, sediment incubations and sediment facies classifications, we show that extensive permafrost thaw can occur beneath lakes on timescales of decades to centuries. Although it has been assumed that shallow, aerobic carbon dioxide production will dominate the climate impact of permafrost thaw, we found that anaerobic carbon dioxide and methane production from deep sediments was commensurate with aerobic production on a per gram carbon basis, and had double the global warming potential at warmer temperatures. Carbon release from deep Arctic sediments may thus have a more substantial impact on a changing climate than currently anticipated. These environments are presently overlooked in estimates of the permafrost carbon feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations

Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as an input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (2005–2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m -2 [0.08–0.61] (5–95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m -2 [0.27–0.51] (5–95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗